RUN: SWIT001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWIT114E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWIT114E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 605 1 Susten ZŠnd, Fichte WIDTH_EARLY PCAB - 605 2 Switzerland Norway spruce 840 4618-737 1773 1980 - 605 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 3 605221 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1921 1921 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 605222 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1921 1921 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 605251 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1921 1921 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 605261 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1921 1921 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 605262 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1921 1921 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 605272 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1921 1921 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 605281 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1921 1921 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 605282 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 4 GAPS / 1921 1921 / 1944 1944 / 1976 1976 / 1979 1979 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 21 605321 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1921 1921 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 22 605322 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1921 1921 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 23 605331 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1921 1921 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 24 605332 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1921 1921 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 605211 1855 1980 126 0.667 0.256 0.722 3.748 0.302 0.568 2 605212 1856 1980 125 0.626 0.303 1.161 5.560 0.296 0.643 3 605221 1848 1980 133 0.716 0.604 2.869 11.574 0.463 0.813 4 605222 1853 1980 128 0.630 0.450 3.923 24.934 0.437 0.574 5 605241 1830 1980 151 0.836 0.439 1.865 8.615 0.263 0.794 6 605242 1846 1980 135 0.804 0.501 2.003 7.942 0.251 0.852 7 605251 1855 1980 126 0.704 0.480 1.766 6.049 0.367 0.754 8 605252 1855 1980 126 0.796 0.476 2.068 8.585 0.367 0.624 9 605261 1796 1980 185 0.574 0.458 1.700 5.455 0.419 0.791 10 605262 1793 1980 188 0.483 0.390 1.826 6.822 0.430 0.731 11 605271 1849 1980 132 0.702 0.351 2.848 16.836 0.345 0.536 12 605272 1855 1980 126 0.674 0.415 2.608 10.993 0.383 0.605 13 605281 1856 1980 125 0.378 0.248 1.695 6.282 0.467 0.627 14 605282 1854 1980 127 0.212 0.147 2.023 7.658 0.505 0.658 15 605291 1773 1980 208 0.530 0.280 2.120 9.176 0.350 0.625 16 605292 1773 1980 208 0.525 0.278 1.819 8.077 0.344 0.695 17 605301 1846 1980 135 0.565 0.305 0.968 3.730 0.365 0.696 18 605302 1806 1980 175 0.574 0.276 0.911 4.134 0.373 0.663 19 605311 1851 1980 130 0.610 0.260 0.767 4.118 0.396 0.341 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 605312 1845 1980 136 0.620 0.288 1.091 5.872 0.457 0.287 21 605321 1806 1980 175 0.434 0.262 1.579 6.328 0.492 0.551 22 605322 1799 1980 182 0.370 0.209 1.236 5.505 0.483 0.486 23 605331 1797 1980 184 0.520 0.352 1.607 6.825 0.338 0.825 24 605332 1797 1980 184 0.600 0.335 2.020 8.545 0.322 0.797 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 24 FROM 1773 TO 1980 208 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 151 0.590 0.348 1.800 8.057 0.384 0.647 STANDARD DEVIATION 29 0.146 0.109 0.745 4.620 0.072 0.144 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 135 0.605 0.320 1.792 6.823 0.370 0.650 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 56 0.166 0.176 0.847 3.067 0.106 0.201 MINIMUM VALUE 123 0.212 0.147 0.722 3.730 0.251 0.287 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 126 0.522 0.269 1.198 5.533 0.341 0.571 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 182 0.688 0.445 2.046 8.600 0.447 0.772 MAXIMUM VALUE 208 0.836 0.604 3.923 24.934 0.505 0.852 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.495 0.280 0.017 -0.409 1.944 -0.221 0.923 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.221 SERIES 605261 AND 605302 175 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.923 SERIES 605251 AND 605252 126 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 65.36 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1798. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 1. 21. 45. 231. 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.841 0.404 0.570 0.509 0.606 0.607 0.472 SDEV 0.000 0.364 0.202 0.290 0.181 0.146 0.237 SERR 0.000 0.079 0.030 0.019 0.011 0.009 0.014 EPS 0.966 0.876 0.960 0.961 0.974 0.974 0.955 NSS 5.3 10.4 17.9 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1773 1980 208 0.578 0.244 1.460 6.627 0.339 0.557 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.657 0.423 0.019 48 160 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.22 0.68 1.00 1.09 1.77 73.30 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.07 0.44 0.87 0.94 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 135. 56. 125. 126. 183. 208. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.554 0.447 0.358 0.326 0.163 0.253 0.210 0.197 0.151 0.163 PACF 0.554 0.202 0.073 0.087 -0.143 0.191 0.016 0.019 -0.003 -0.006 95% C.L. 0.139 0.176 0.197 0.209 0.218 0.221 0.226 0.230 0.233 0.235 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.369 0.444 0.225 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 605211 1 0.89849532 0.07819736 0.00000000 0.57939696 2 605212 1 1.07470620 0.08137842 0.00000000 0.52491546 3 605221 1 2.64868236 0.09312481 0.00000000 0.50567019 4 605222 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00239260 0.77916312 5 605241 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00531318 1.23976159 6 605242 1 1.52835608 0.02236947 0.00000000 0.32754031 7 605251 1 1.70891523 0.05227380 0.00000000 0.44618461 8 605252 1 1.71377695 0.07631895 0.00000000 0.62438303 9 605261 1 1.38615477 0.01537027 0.00000000 0.11553645 10 605262 1 1.22118139 0.02251732 0.00000000 0.19961025 11 605271 1 0.84328425 0.05795345 0.00000000 0.59464759 12 605272 1 1.76110423 0.11241525 0.00000000 0.55133438 13 605281 1 0.77735043 0.04858772 0.00000000 0.25021717 14 605282 1 0.70342577 0.11367164 0.00000000 0.16022539 15 605291 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00160704 0.69841695 16 605292 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00163892 0.69626671 17 605301 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00392952 0.83217025 18 605302 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00156975 0.43591923 19 605311 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00051755 0.57610017 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 605312 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00298447 0.41519609 21 605321 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00170731 0.28065768 22 605322 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00088182 0.28709403 23 605331 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00354274 0.84480685 24 605332 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00220987 0.80189532 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 605211 1855 1980 126 1.000 0.297 -0.146 3.228 0.300 0.228 2 605212 1856 1980 125 1.000 0.386 0.486 3.019 0.293 0.525 3 605221 1848 1980 133 1.001 0.508 1.084 6.092 0.508 0.360 4 605222 1853 1980 128 1.007 0.651 2.466 13.433 0.463 0.577 5 605241 1830 1980 151 0.993 0.385 1.018 6.094 0.261 0.666 6 605242 1846 1980 135 1.000 0.328 0.405 3.437 0.249 0.607 7 605251 1855 1980 126 0.999 0.437 0.723 3.700 0.391 0.375 8 605252 1855 1980 126 0.999 0.411 0.733 4.023 0.364 0.377 9 605261 1796 1980 185 1.007 0.454 0.484 3.070 0.437 0.371 10 605262 1793 1980 188 1.003 0.468 0.468 2.946 0.449 0.371 11 605271 1849 1980 132 1.000 0.375 0.558 4.280 0.343 0.366 12 605272 1855 1980 126 1.000 0.416 0.955 6.406 0.407 0.295 13 605281 1856 1980 125 0.999 0.462 0.682 4.518 0.499 0.242 14 605282 1854 1980 127 1.000 0.506 0.410 3.611 0.577 0.215 15 605291 1773 1980 208 0.999 0.457 1.829 9.110 0.348 0.563 16 605292 1773 1980 208 0.995 0.466 1.757 8.618 0.343 0.640 17 605301 1846 1980 135 0.993 0.435 0.721 3.830 0.362 0.564 18 605302 1806 1980 175 0.996 0.471 1.153 4.729 0.371 0.630 19 605311 1851 1980 130 1.000 0.427 0.809 4.244 0.393 0.342 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 605312 1845 1980 136 1.002 0.417 0.474 3.341 0.454 0.202 21 605321 1806 1980 175 1.010 0.589 1.283 5.001 0.516 0.355 22 605322 1799 1980 182 1.001 0.561 1.231 5.523 0.505 0.439 23 605331 1797 1980 184 1.001 0.562 1.426 5.675 0.349 0.720 24 605332 1797 1980 184 1.000 0.503 1.630 6.877 0.333 0.740 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 152 1.000 0.457 0.943 5.200 0.397 0.449 STANDARD DEVIATION 29 0.004 0.081 0.580 2.434 0.086 0.166 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 135 1.000 0.456 0.771 4.399 0.381 0.376 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 56 0.002 0.091 0.772 2.569 0.115 0.243 MINIMUM VALUE 125 0.993 0.297 -0.146 2.946 0.249 0.202 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 126 0.999 0.413 0.485 3.524 0.343 0.348 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 183 1.001 0.504 1.257 6.093 0.458 0.592 MAXIMUM VALUE 208 1.010 0.651 2.466 13.433 0.577 0.740 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 605211 -67 84 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 605212 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 605221 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 605222 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 605241 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 605242 -67 90 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 605251 -67 84 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 605252 -67 84 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 605261 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 605262 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 605271 -67 88 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 605272 -67 84 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 605281 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 605282 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 605291 -67 139 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 605292 -67 139 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 605301 -67 90 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 605302 -67 117 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 605311 -67 87 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 605312 -67 91 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 605321 -67 117 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 605322 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 605331 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 605332 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 605211 1855 1980 126 0.999 0.294 -0.040 3.403 0.300 0.204 2 605212 1856 1980 125 0.990 0.354 0.715 4.250 0.293 0.430 3 605221 1848 1980 133 0.999 0.506 1.238 7.185 0.508 0.346 4 605222 1853 1980 128 0.993 0.456 0.637 4.240 0.461 0.344 5 605241 1830 1980 151 0.990 0.345 0.971 6.294 0.261 0.600 6 605242 1846 1980 135 0.995 0.313 0.433 3.725 0.249 0.570 7 605251 1855 1980 126 0.995 0.419 0.672 3.785 0.390 0.309 8 605252 1855 1980 126 0.994 0.392 0.758 4.294 0.364 0.308 9 605261 1796 1980 185 0.998 0.440 0.388 2.860 0.437 0.351 10 605262 1793 1980 188 0.999 0.461 0.470 3.001 0.449 0.327 11 605271 1849 1980 132 0.998 0.363 0.435 4.185 0.343 0.326 12 605272 1855 1980 126 0.998 0.410 1.016 6.968 0.407 0.267 13 605281 1856 1980 125 0.999 0.453 0.517 3.968 0.498 0.206 14 605282 1854 1980 127 0.998 0.497 0.268 3.111 0.577 0.158 15 605291 1773 1980 208 0.989 0.406 1.467 7.626 0.349 0.465 16 605292 1773 1980 208 0.993 0.399 1.224 5.980 0.343 0.476 17 605301 1846 1980 135 0.987 0.361 0.340 2.948 0.361 0.302 18 605302 1806 1980 175 0.993 0.371 0.468 3.092 0.371 0.326 19 605311 1851 1980 130 0.989 0.381 0.547 3.743 0.393 0.218 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 605312 1845 1980 136 0.997 0.397 0.230 2.780 0.454 0.137 21 605321 1806 1980 175 0.992 0.477 0.589 3.499 0.516 0.200 22 605322 1799 1980 182 0.986 0.501 0.933 4.753 0.505 0.330 23 605331 1797 1980 184 0.965 0.370 0.855 5.173 0.350 0.443 24 605332 1797 1980 184 0.983 0.382 0.997 5.731 0.333 0.556 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 152 0.992 0.406 0.672 4.441 0.396 0.342 STANDARD DEVIATION 29 0.007 0.058 0.360 1.461 0.086 0.128 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 135 0.994 0.398 0.613 4.076 0.381 0.326 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 56 0.008 0.088 0.518 2.195 0.114 0.194 MINIMUM VALUE 125 0.965 0.294 -0.040 2.780 0.249 0.137 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 126 0.990 0.367 0.434 3.257 0.343 0.242 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 183 0.998 0.455 0.952 5.452 0.458 0.436 MAXIMUM VALUE 208 0.999 0.506 1.467 7.626 0.577 0.600 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.574 0.114 0.007 -0.291 3.118 0.261 0.909 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.261 SERIES 605241 AND 605301 135 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.909 SERIES 605291 AND 605292 208 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 65.36 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1798. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 1. 21. 45. 231. 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.869 0.568 0.616 0.594 0.647 0.642 0.563 SDEV 0.000 0.235 0.194 0.158 0.134 0.120 0.165 SERR 0.000 0.051 0.029 0.010 0.008 0.007 0.010 EPS 0.973 0.932 0.966 0.972 0.978 0.977 0.969 NSS 5.3 10.4 17.9 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1773 1980 208 0.981 0.340 0.443 3.890 0.359 0.290 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.510 0.180 0.070 59 149 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.22 0.68 1.01 1.07 1.75 6.63 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.09 0.71 0.88 0.96 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.289 0.162 0.072 0.067 -0.130 0.060 -0.055 0.000 -0.040 -0.056 PACF 0.289 0.086 0.004 0.036 -0.180 0.145 -0.088 0.028 -0.024 -0.090 95% C.L. 0.139 0.150 0.153 0.154 0.154 0.156 0.157 0.157 0.157 0.157 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.098 0.298 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.243 0.100 0.005 -0.008 -0.154 -0.025 -0.182 -0.027 -0.052 -0.100 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.243 2 0.232 0.043 3 0.234 0.050 -0.030 4 0.233 0.051 -0.029 -0.007 5 0.232 0.046 -0.021 0.029 -0.157 6 0.240 0.045 -0.019 0.027 -0.169 0.050 7 0.249 0.014 -0.015 0.023 -0.161 0.094 -0.181 8 0.260 0.009 -0.005 0.022 -0.160 0.093 -0.195 0.059 9 0.262 0.000 -0.001 0.015 -0.159 0.093 -0.195 0.070 -0.042 10 0.257 0.009 -0.025 0.026 -0.178 0.095 -0.195 0.070 -0.011 -0.120 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1858.10 1847.46 1849.07 1850.88 1852.87 1849.65 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1851.12 1846.21 1847.48 1849.11 1848.08 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.243 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 5.90 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 106.27 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.243 0.059 0.014 0.003 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 605211 1 0.042 0.205 2 605212 1 0.203 0.432 3 605221 1 0.124 0.351 4 605222 1 0.135 0.364 5 605241 1 0.370 0.601 6 605242 1 0.333 0.571 7 605251 1 0.120 0.309 8 605252 1 0.101 0.308 9 605261 1 0.125 0.354 10 605262 1 0.110 0.329 11 605271 1 0.110 0.331 12 605272 1 0.073 0.268 13 605281 1 0.047 0.207 14 605282 1 0.030 0.159 15 605291 1 0.274 0.474 16 605292 1 0.280 0.491 17 605301 1 0.104 0.312 18 605302 1 0.122 0.329 19 605311 1 0.065 0.224 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 605312 1 0.024 0.139 21 605321 1 0.050 0.201 22 605322 1 0.152 0.337 23 605331 1 0.247 0.452 24 605332 1 0.325 0.564 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.148 0.346 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.103 0.129 MEDIAN 1 0.121 0.330 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.156 0.196 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.024 0.139 LOWER HINGE 1 0.069 0.246 UPPER HINGE 1 0.225 0.442 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.370 0.601 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 605211 1855 1980 126 1.000 0.287 -0.157 3.520 0.328 0.003 2 605212 1856 1980 125 1.000 0.319 0.343 3.724 0.378 -0.061 3 605221 1848 1980 133 1.003 0.467 1.161 7.043 0.545 -0.003 4 605222 1853 1980 128 1.002 0.417 0.558 4.297 0.497 -0.024 5 605241 1830 1980 151 1.000 0.276 -0.028 4.381 0.339 -0.070 6 605242 1846 1980 135 1.000 0.257 -0.110 3.886 0.313 -0.056 7 605251 1855 1980 126 1.002 0.392 0.695 4.135 0.436 -0.034 8 605252 1855 1980 126 1.000 0.373 0.672 4.614 0.413 -0.025 9 605261 1796 1980 185 1.000 0.410 0.324 2.892 0.476 0.000 10 605262 1793 1980 188 1.001 0.431 0.429 2.969 0.491 -0.009 11 605271 1849 1980 132 1.000 0.342 0.289 4.406 0.396 -0.014 12 605272 1855 1980 126 1.001 0.392 0.998 6.640 0.435 0.016 13 605281 1856 1980 125 1.002 0.438 0.508 3.973 0.532 -0.006 14 605282 1854 1980 127 1.003 0.483 0.259 2.921 0.601 0.008 15 605291 1773 1980 208 1.000 0.356 0.802 4.876 0.426 -0.127 16 605292 1773 1980 208 1.000 0.345 0.511 4.149 0.430 -0.125 17 605301 1846 1980 135 1.000 0.342 0.145 2.726 0.401 -0.025 18 605302 1806 1980 175 1.000 0.350 0.460 3.176 0.415 -0.038 19 605311 1851 1980 130 1.001 0.369 0.405 3.793 0.438 -0.018 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 605312 1845 1980 136 1.000 0.393 0.165 2.780 0.483 -0.007 21 605321 1806 1980 175 1.001 0.464 0.707 3.741 0.538 -0.018 22 605322 1799 1980 182 1.002 0.466 0.871 4.671 0.564 -0.060 23 605331 1797 1980 184 1.000 0.329 0.474 4.161 0.396 -0.099 24 605332 1797 1980 184 1.000 0.315 0.108 3.842 0.385 -0.060 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 152 1.001 0.376 0.441 4.055 0.444 -0.036 STANDARD DEVIATION 29 0.001 0.063 0.336 1.062 0.076 0.039 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 135 1.000 0.371 0.444 3.930 0.432 -0.025 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 56 0.002 0.088 0.471 1.046 0.098 0.053 MINIMUM VALUE 125 1.000 0.257 -0.157 2.726 0.313 -0.127 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 126 1.000 0.336 0.212 3.348 0.396 -0.060 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 183 1.002 0.424 0.683 4.394 0.494 -0.007 MAXIMUM VALUE 208 1.003 0.483 1.161 7.043 0.601 0.016 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.617 0.083 0.005 0.140 3.472 0.375 0.891 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.375 SERIES 605241 AND 605301 135 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.891 SERIES 605291 AND 605292 208 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 65.36 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1798. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 1. 21. 45. 231. 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.833 0.580 0.614 0.610 0.676 0.703 0.639 SDEV 0.000 0.151 0.127 0.125 0.114 0.079 0.106 SERR 0.000 0.033 0.019 0.008 0.007 0.005 0.006 EPS 0.964 0.935 0.966 0.974 0.980 0.983 0.977 NSS 5.3 10.4 17.9 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1773 1980 208 0.988 0.315 0.059 3.114 0.409 -0.137 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.501 0.156 0.059 60 148 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.34 0.88 1.00 1.14 2.02 9999.00 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.09 0.61 0.87 0.96 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.136 0.041 -0.011 0.110 -0.235 0.160 -0.106 0.034 -0.038 -0.010 PACF -0.136 0.023 -0.003 0.109 -0.212 0.107 -0.073 0.005 0.008 -0.090 95% C.L. 0.139 0.141 0.141 0.141 0.143 0.150 0.154 0.155 0.155 0.155 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.020 -0.140 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.005 0.021 0.010 0.079 -0.205 0.117 -0.082 0.015 -0.035 -0.030 PACF 0.005 0.021 0.009 0.079 -0.207 0.125 -0.089 0.019 -0.007 -0.093 95% C.L. 0.139 0.139 0.139 0.139 0.140 0.145 0.147 0.148 0.148 0.148 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.000 0.005 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1773 1980 208 0.987 0.323 0.298 3.421 0.345 0.255 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.253 0.086 0.038 0.044 -0.157 0.053 -0.062 -0.011 -0.047 -0.060 PACF 0.253 0.024 0.011 0.032 -0.189 0.147 -0.109 0.032 -0.033 -0.094 95% C.L. 0.139 0.147 0.148 0.148 0.149 0.152 0.152 0.153 0.153 0.153 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.068 0.259 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.23 MINUTES