RUN: swit FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWIT115E.rwl LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWIT115E.rwl_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 20 10 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 605 1 Susten Zänd, Tanne abst. WIDTH_EARLY ABAL - 605 2 Switzerland silver fir, European fir 840 4618-737 1816 1981 - 605 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 3 605421 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1859 1859 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 605422 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1859 1859 / 1974 1974 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 6 605432 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1974 1974 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 605451 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1868 1868 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 605491 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1974 1974 / 1976 1976 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 605492 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1974 1974 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 605501 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1974 1974 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 605411 1853 1973 121 1.038 0.425 0.739 4.765 0.272 0.573 2 605412 1847 1973 127 0.999 0.408 0.553 4.185 0.281 0.658 3 605421 1843 1976 134 1.437 0.712 0.300 3.156 0.213 0.847 4 605422 1847 1979 133 1.335 0.645 0.604 4.470 0.208 0.835 5 605431 1827 1981 155 0.781 0.375 0.796 3.969 0.312 0.664 6 605432 1827 1979 153 0.833 0.479 0.543 2.596 0.277 0.767 7 605441 1868 1975 108 1.127 0.490 0.163 2.518 0.273 0.699 8 605442 1855 1974 120 0.907 0.433 0.498 2.547 0.279 0.791 9 605451 1837 1971 135 0.811 0.405 0.455 3.148 0.274 0.730 10 605452 1828 1973 146 0.861 0.330 0.116 2.764 0.246 0.647 11 605461 1907 1973 67 1.325 0.571 0.074 2.842 0.265 0.682 12 605462 1854 1972 119 1.082 0.407 0.227 4.813 0.254 0.665 13 605471 1827 1974 148 0.847 0.419 0.608 2.796 0.284 0.716 14 605472 1828 1973 146 0.824 0.369 0.554 2.649 0.285 0.636 15 605491 1816 1981 166 0.861 0.458 0.698 3.673 0.255 0.781 16 605492 1825 1981 157 0.854 0.487 0.517 3.011 0.277 0.805 17 605501 1854 1981 128 1.016 0.525 1.335 6.182 0.252 0.714 18 605502 1835 1981 147 1.169 0.524 0.815 4.353 0.256 0.749 19 605511 1870 1981 112 1.016 0.367 0.306 2.985 0.217 0.740 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 605512 1849 1981 133 1.123 0.558 1.388 5.433 0.209 0.844 21 605521 1857 1978 122 0.612 0.329 -0.116 1.848 0.265 0.831 22 605522 1851 1975 125 0.704 0.472 2.286 11.902 0.279 0.756 23 605531 1843 1981 139 0.870 0.303 0.150 2.766 0.270 0.494 24 605532 1846 1981 136 0.738 0.367 1.545 6.233 0.271 0.677 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 24 FROM 1816 TO 1981 166 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 132 0.965 0.452 0.631 3.984 0.261 0.721 STANDARD DEVIATION 20 0.209 0.101 0.542 2.064 0.027 0.088 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 133 0.888 0.429 0.548 3.152 0.270 0.723 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 25 0.274 0.135 0.504 1.852 0.025 0.122 MINIMUM VALUE 67 0.612 0.303 -0.116 1.848 0.208 0.494 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 121 0.829 0.372 0.264 2.765 0.253 0.664 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 146 1.103 0.507 0.768 4.617 0.278 0.786 MAXIMUM VALUE 164 1.437 0.712 2.286 11.902 0.312 0.847 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.617 0.178 0.011 -0.731 3.127 0.051 0.940 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.051 SERIES 605462 AND 605502 119 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.940 SERIES 605471 AND 605472 146 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 72.28 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1840. 1850. 1860. 1870. 1880. 1890. 1900. 1910. 1920. 1930. CORR 21. 36. 105. 210. 253. 253. 253. 253. 276. 276. RBAR 0.684 0.575 0.490 0.662 0.619 0.602 0.650 0.530 0.658 0.621 SDEV 0.143 0.215 0.283 0.174 0.177 0.210 0.225 0.188 0.198 0.201 SERR 0.031 0.036 0.028 0.012 0.011 0.013 0.014 0.012 0.012 0.012 EPS 0.954 0.953 0.950 0.977 0.974 0.972 0.977 0.964 0.979 0.975 NSS 9.6 15.1 19.9 22.1 23.0 23.0 23.1 23.6 24.0 24.0 YEAR 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. CORR 276. 276. 276. 55. RBAR 0.755 0.626 0.403 0.836 SDEV 0.136 0.233 0.331 0.108 SERR 0.008 0.014 0.020 0.015 EPS 0.987 0.976 0.942 0.991 NSS 24.0 24.0 24.0 20.6 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1816 1981 166 0.913 0.364 0.070 3.001 0.227 0.741 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.599 0.271 0.055 60 106 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.24 0.41 1.00 1.11 1.52 9.11 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.08 0.00 0.85 0.93 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 134. 25. 67. 122. 146. 166. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.737 0.622 0.562 0.500 0.425 0.447 0.410 0.405 0.349 0.359 PACF 0.737 0.173 0.124 0.041 -0.027 0.179 -0.008 0.081 -0.077 0.093 95% C.L. 0.155 0.224 0.262 0.290 0.310 0.324 0.338 0.350 0.361 0.369 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.586 0.581 0.114 0.129 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 605411 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00752574 1.49692142 2 605412 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00499467 1.31839895 3 605421 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01142139 2.21180677 4 605422 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01243720 2.15626979 5 605431 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00408601 1.09974110 6 605432 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00657685 1.33515954 7 605441 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00486801 1.39197302 8 605442 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00075307 0.95264429 9 605451 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00780228 1.34316027 10 605452 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00444547 1.18776953 11 605461 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01738806 1.91626859 12 605462 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00034646 1.06156528 13 605471 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00291872 1.06426919 14 605472 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00331042 1.06769955 15 605491 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00447253 1.22575343 16 605492 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00641191 1.35565031 17 605501 1 1.58946705 0.01768327 0.00000000 0.38572767 18 605502 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00658203 1.65604973 19 605511 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00789199 1.46179056 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 605512 1 1.72107458 0.02653942 0.00000000 0.65611112 21 605521 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00751349 1.07437479 22 605522 1 2.97766876 0.19401626 0.00000000 0.59226561 23 605531 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00217481 1.02209258 24 605532 1 1.20683324 0.05223766 0.00000000 0.57297307 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 605411 1853 1973 121 0.997 0.313 -0.006 3.413 0.270 0.403 2 605412 1847 1973 127 0.995 0.359 0.178 3.558 0.279 0.557 3 605421 1843 1976 134 0.979 0.444 1.518 7.483 0.213 0.809 4 605422 1847 1979 133 0.980 0.367 0.072 4.591 0.301 0.750 5 605431 1827 1981 155 0.989 0.405 0.655 3.804 0.310 0.569 6 605432 1827 1979 153 0.968 0.422 0.572 2.660 0.276 0.657 7 605441 1868 1975 108 0.995 0.424 0.272 2.561 0.270 0.680 8 605442 1855 1974 120 1.000 0.477 0.504 2.551 0.277 0.785 9 605451 1837 1971 135 0.979 0.319 0.502 3.700 0.269 0.472 10 605452 1828 1973 146 0.995 0.330 0.324 3.439 0.244 0.560 11 605461 1907 1973 67 0.990 0.383 0.840 4.764 0.262 0.596 12 605462 1854 1972 119 1.000 0.376 0.198 4.728 0.252 0.658 13 605471 1827 1974 148 0.993 0.471 0.664 2.833 0.283 0.699 14 605472 1828 1973 146 0.993 0.405 0.619 2.909 0.283 0.581 15 605491 1816 1981 166 0.985 0.513 1.291 6.029 0.252 0.784 16 605492 1825 1981 157 0.968 0.451 0.470 2.571 0.278 0.737 17 605501 1854 1981 128 0.998 0.351 -0.057 3.195 0.247 0.603 18 605502 1835 1981 147 0.997 0.379 0.530 3.391 0.254 0.675 19 605511 1870 1981 112 0.999 0.264 0.170 3.332 0.214 0.506 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 605512 1849 1981 133 0.999 0.311 0.568 2.919 0.207 0.645 21 605521 1857 1978 122 0.967 0.344 0.309 3.060 0.262 0.595 22 605522 1851 1975 125 1.000 0.469 -0.276 2.321 0.274 0.758 23 605531 1843 1981 139 0.999 0.328 0.000 2.809 0.268 0.450 24 605532 1846 1981 136 1.000 0.337 0.251 3.612 0.270 0.475 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 132 0.990 0.385 0.424 3.593 0.263 0.625 STANDARD DEVIATION 20 0.011 0.064 0.407 1.201 0.025 0.114 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 133 0.995 0.377 0.397 3.362 0.269 0.624 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 25 0.017 0.100 0.422 0.932 0.026 0.160 MINIMUM VALUE 67 0.967 0.264 -0.276 2.321 0.207 0.403 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 121 0.982 0.334 0.174 2.821 0.252 0.558 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 146 0.999 0.434 0.596 3.752 0.277 0.718 MAXIMUM VALUE 166 1.000 0.513 1.518 7.483 0.310 0.809 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 605411 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 605412 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 605421 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 605422 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 605431 -67 103 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 605432 -67 102 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 605441 -67 72 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 605442 -67 80 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 605451 -67 90 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 605452 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 605461 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 605462 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 605471 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 605472 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 605491 -67 111 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 605492 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 605501 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 605502 -67 98 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 605511 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 605512 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 605521 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 605522 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 605531 -67 93 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 605532 -67 91 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 605411 1853 1973 121 0.998 0.312 0.263 4.050 0.270 0.364 2 605412 1847 1973 127 0.990 0.313 0.354 4.297 0.279 0.427 3 605421 1843 1976 134 0.983 0.301 1.500 6.608 0.211 0.639 4 605422 1847 1979 133 0.980 0.326 -0.081 4.776 0.295 0.660 5 605431 1827 1981 155 0.995 0.341 0.564 3.397 0.308 0.392 6 605432 1827 1979 153 0.993 0.298 0.263 2.811 0.276 0.365 7 605441 1868 1975 108 0.984 0.300 -0.051 2.526 0.267 0.434 8 605442 1855 1974 120 0.988 0.283 -0.139 2.762 0.275 0.316 9 605451 1837 1971 135 0.996 0.275 0.421 4.105 0.267 0.287 10 605452 1828 1973 146 0.993 0.293 0.149 3.335 0.243 0.465 11 605461 1907 1973 67 0.985 0.307 0.499 4.843 0.258 0.445 12 605462 1854 1972 119 0.986 0.287 0.217 4.974 0.252 0.378 13 605471 1827 1974 148 0.994 0.286 0.184 3.846 0.283 0.262 14 605472 1828 1973 146 0.996 0.295 0.175 3.374 0.283 0.263 15 605491 1816 1981 166 0.984 0.392 1.419 6.373 0.252 0.667 16 605492 1825 1981 157 0.993 0.355 0.637 3.430 0.277 0.553 17 605501 1854 1981 128 0.987 0.294 0.270 3.955 0.247 0.481 18 605502 1835 1981 147 0.992 0.356 0.647 3.822 0.253 0.643 19 605511 1870 1981 112 0.999 0.258 0.154 3.416 0.214 0.490 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 605512 1849 1981 133 0.996 0.261 0.293 3.003 0.206 0.545 21 605521 1857 1978 122 0.997 0.309 0.705 4.596 0.262 0.471 22 605522 1851 1975 125 1.006 0.309 0.710 5.441 0.276 0.352 23 605531 1843 1981 139 0.996 0.280 -0.226 3.563 0.268 0.319 24 605532 1846 1981 136 0.997 0.313 0.103 3.460 0.269 0.436 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 132 0.992 0.306 0.376 4.032 0.262 0.444 STANDARD DEVIATION 20 0.006 0.031 0.423 1.057 0.025 0.124 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 133 0.993 0.301 0.266 3.834 0.267 0.435 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 25 0.010 0.026 0.449 1.301 0.025 0.160 MINIMUM VALUE 67 0.980 0.258 -0.226 2.526 0.206 0.262 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 121 0.987 0.287 0.152 3.386 0.252 0.358 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 146 0.996 0.313 0.601 4.686 0.277 0.517 MAXIMUM VALUE 166 1.006 0.392 1.500 6.608 0.308 0.667 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.527 0.121 0.007 -0.017 3.061 0.195 0.898 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.195 SERIES 605422 AND 605522 125 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.898 SERIES 605471 AND 605472 146 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 72.28 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1840. 1850. 1860. 1870. 1880. 1890. 1900. 1910. 1920. 1930. CORR 21. 36. 105. 210. 253. 253. 253. 253. 276. 276. RBAR 0.729 0.537 0.544 0.661 0.632 0.638 0.653 0.558 0.655 0.653 SDEV 0.115 0.245 0.226 0.173 0.165 0.183 0.222 0.163 0.192 0.171 SERR 0.025 0.041 0.022 0.012 0.010 0.012 0.014 0.010 0.012 0.010 EPS 0.963 0.946 0.960 0.977 0.975 0.976 0.978 0.968 0.979 0.978 NSS 9.6 15.1 19.9 22.1 23.0 23.0 23.1 23.6 24.0 24.0 YEAR 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. CORR 276. 276. 276. 55. RBAR 0.670 0.660 0.438 0.750 SDEV 0.167 0.170 0.274 0.109 SERR 0.010 0.010 0.016 0.015 EPS 0.980 0.979 0.949 0.984 NSS 24.0 24.0 24.0 20.6 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1816 1981 166 0.985 0.248 0.034 3.215 0.230 0.399 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.409 0.151 0.044 49 117 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.19 0.31 1.01 1.06 1.37 8.65 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.07 0.00 0.84 0.92 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.396 0.233 0.126 0.078 -0.103 -0.039 -0.141 -0.083 -0.138 -0.059 PACF 0.396 0.090 0.008 0.010 -0.176 0.052 -0.128 0.026 -0.083 0.019 95% C.L. 0.155 0.178 0.185 0.187 0.188 0.189 0.190 0.192 0.193 0.195 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.172 0.405 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.325 0.195 0.086 0.060 -0.125 -0.047 -0.235 -0.138 -0.122 -0.055 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.325 2 0.292 0.100 3 0.292 0.102 -0.004 4 0.293 0.100 -0.010 0.018 5 0.296 0.098 0.008 0.070 -0.176 6 0.301 0.096 0.008 0.067 -0.185 0.031 7 0.308 0.055 0.022 0.068 -0.164 0.098 -0.221 8 0.309 0.055 0.023 0.068 -0.164 0.098 -0.222 0.003 9 0.309 0.051 0.024 0.066 -0.163 0.098 -0.221 0.007 -0.016 10 0.309 0.051 0.023 0.066 -0.164 0.098 -0.221 0.008 -0.014 -0.006 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1357.42 1340.93 1341.25 1343.24 1345.19 1341.99 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1343.83 1337.52 1339.52 1341.48 1343.47 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.325 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 10.54 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 111.78 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.325 0.105 0.034 0.011 0.004 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 605411 1 0.174 0.393 2 605412 1 0.239 0.437 3 605421 1 0.409 0.639 4 605422 1 0.464 0.675 5 605431 1 0.185 0.404 6 605432 1 0.139 0.367 7 605441 1 0.195 0.441 8 605442 1 0.173 0.318 9 605451 1 0.100 0.290 10 605452 1 0.232 0.481 11 605461 1 0.270 0.466 12 605462 1 0.176 0.397 13 605471 1 0.081 0.279 14 605472 1 0.076 0.268 15 605491 1 0.459 0.676 16 605492 1 0.335 0.567 17 605501 1 0.283 0.490 18 605502 1 0.459 0.651 19 605511 1 0.275 0.497 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 605512 1 0.316 0.547 21 605521 1 0.251 0.473 22 605522 1 0.148 0.382 23 605531 1 0.130 0.321 24 605532 1 0.207 0.443 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.241 0.454 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.117 0.123 MEDIAN 1 0.219 0.442 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.139 0.147 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.076 0.268 LOWER HINGE 1 0.160 0.374 UPPER HINGE 1 0.300 0.522 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.464 0.676 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 605411 1853 1973 121 1.000 0.285 0.273 3.816 0.332 -0.066 2 605412 1847 1973 127 1.000 0.281 0.479 4.516 0.340 -0.096 3 605421 1843 1976 134 1.000 0.232 0.598 4.222 0.268 -0.021 4 605422 1847 1979 133 1.000 0.238 -0.412 4.755 0.289 -0.076 5 605431 1827 1981 155 1.000 0.311 0.365 3.267 0.371 -0.070 6 605432 1827 1979 153 1.000 0.277 0.144 3.075 0.324 -0.026 7 605441 1868 1975 108 1.000 0.269 -0.095 2.754 0.326 -0.010 8 605442 1855 1974 120 1.000 0.268 0.136 3.572 0.316 -0.087 9 605451 1837 1971 135 1.000 0.263 0.297 4.242 0.312 -0.037 10 605452 1828 1973 146 1.000 0.256 0.159 3.464 0.295 -0.010 11 605461 1907 1973 67 1.000 0.271 0.760 5.052 0.315 -0.093 12 605462 1854 1972 119 1.000 0.263 0.359 4.710 0.299 -0.047 13 605471 1827 1974 148 1.000 0.274 -0.082 3.812 0.323 -0.024 14 605472 1828 1973 146 1.000 0.284 -0.012 3.636 0.331 -0.015 15 605491 1816 1981 166 1.000 0.287 0.976 9.749 0.317 -0.043 16 605492 1825 1981 157 1.000 0.290 0.075 3.410 0.351 -0.092 17 605501 1854 1981 128 1.000 0.255 0.135 4.587 0.313 -0.124 18 605502 1835 1981 147 1.000 0.269 0.192 4.038 0.339 -0.160 19 605511 1870 1981 112 1.000 0.224 0.064 3.847 0.275 -0.093 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 605512 1849 1981 133 1.000 0.218 0.031 3.639 0.269 -0.085 21 605521 1857 1978 122 1.000 0.271 0.348 4.440 0.316 -0.089 22 605522 1851 1975 125 1.000 0.286 0.423 4.296 0.319 0.011 23 605531 1843 1981 139 1.000 0.265 -0.390 4.119 0.311 -0.053 24 605532 1846 1981 136 1.000 0.280 0.057 4.602 0.321 -0.054 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 132 1.000 0.267 0.203 4.234 0.315 -0.061 STANDARD DEVIATION 20 0.000 0.022 0.318 1.309 0.025 0.041 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 133 1.000 0.270 0.151 4.079 0.317 -0.060 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 25 0.000 0.023 0.318 0.947 0.024 0.066 MINIMUM VALUE 67 1.000 0.218 -0.412 2.754 0.268 -0.160 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 121 1.000 0.260 0.044 3.604 0.305 -0.091 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 146 1.000 0.283 0.362 4.551 0.328 -0.025 MAXIMUM VALUE 166 1.000 0.311 0.976 9.749 0.371 0.011 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.613 0.083 0.005 0.135 3.648 0.376 0.894 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.376 SERIES 605421 AND 605442 120 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.894 SERIES 605471 AND 605472 146 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 72.28 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1840. 1850. 1860. 1870. 1880. 1890. 1900. 1910. 1920. 1930. CORR 21. 36. 105. 210. 253. 253. 253. 253. 276. 276. RBAR 0.743 0.647 0.610 0.661 0.615 0.676 0.692 0.612 0.736 0.716 SDEV 0.138 0.148 0.160 0.139 0.150 0.127 0.124 0.137 0.128 0.128 SERR 0.030 0.025 0.016 0.010 0.009 0.008 0.008 0.009 0.008 0.008 EPS 0.965 0.965 0.969 0.977 0.974 0.980 0.981 0.974 0.985 0.984 NSS 9.6 15.1 19.9 22.1 23.0 23.0 23.1 23.6 24.0 24.0 YEAR 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. CORR 276. 276. 276. 55. RBAR 0.710 0.705 0.557 0.695 SDEV 0.116 0.111 0.167 0.100 SERR 0.007 0.007 0.010 0.013 EPS 0.983 0.983 0.968 0.979 NSS 24.0 24.0 24.0 20.6 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1816 1981 166 0.993 0.217 -0.230 3.693 0.275 -0.099 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.326 0.109 0.042 50 116 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.25 0.45 1.00 1.09 1.54 14.91 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.06 0.00 0.87 0.93 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.098 0.043 0.018 0.121 -0.178 0.086 -0.143 0.025 -0.132 0.052 PACF -0.098 0.033 0.026 0.125 -0.160 0.049 -0.134 -0.001 -0.097 0.006 95% C.L. 0.155 0.157 0.157 0.157 0.159 0.164 0.165 0.168 0.168 0.171 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.004 0.035 0.035 0.108 -0.161 0.055 -0.135 -0.002 -0.127 0.025 PACF 0.004 0.035 0.035 0.106 -0.166 0.052 -0.140 0.003 -0.097 0.007 95% C.L. 0.155 0.155 0.155 0.156 0.157 0.161 0.162 0.164 0.164 0.167 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.001 0.004 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1816 1981 166 0.994 0.230 -0.096 3.343 0.222 0.344 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.342 0.154 0.095 0.079 -0.116 -0.034 -0.143 -0.087 -0.146 -0.068 PACF 0.342 0.042 0.034 0.036 -0.182 0.055 -0.150 0.017 -0.096 0.002 95% C.L. 0.155 0.172 0.176 0.177 0.178 0.180 0.180 0.182 0.183 0.186 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.121 0.345 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.26 MINUTES