RUN: swit FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWIT116E.rwl LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWIT116E.rwl_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 20 10 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 603 1 Bannwald Süd Tanne gesun WIDTH_EARLY ABAL - 603 2 Switzerland silver fir, European fir 1230 4620-738 1876 1980 - 603 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 11 603061 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1932 1932 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 603011 1888 1980 93 1.258 0.651 2.555 12.287 0.227 0.722 2 603012 1888 1980 93 1.497 0.680 3.056 16.301 0.231 0.628 3 603021 1903 1980 78 1.620 0.487 0.514 3.326 0.235 0.430 4 603022 1897 1980 84 1.389 0.518 0.868 4.121 0.244 0.610 5 603031 1918 1980 63 1.535 0.573 -0.019 2.921 0.191 0.741 6 603032 1881 1980 100 1.739 0.542 -0.096 2.487 0.193 0.746 7 603041 1900 1980 81 1.491 0.571 -0.544 3.043 0.295 0.724 8 603042 1900 1980 81 1.528 0.571 -0.359 2.841 0.276 0.656 9 603051 1878 1980 103 1.668 0.525 -0.436 2.617 0.187 0.713 10 603052 1876 1980 105 1.881 0.620 0.080 3.876 0.180 0.723 11 603061 1881 1980 100 1.069 0.529 -0.031 1.813 0.287 0.825 12 603062 1880 1980 101 1.259 0.665 0.074 1.747 0.273 0.840 13 603071 1882 1980 99 1.392 0.416 -0.313 3.533 0.312 0.211 14 603072 1893 1980 88 1.300 0.436 0.503 4.682 0.303 0.397 15 603081 1887 1980 94 1.302 0.446 -0.492 3.309 0.225 0.671 16 603082 1893 1980 88 1.406 0.412 0.199 3.528 0.196 0.586 17 603091 1908 1980 73 1.086 0.513 0.819 2.866 0.257 0.716 18 603092 1909 1980 72 1.180 0.461 0.465 2.640 0.225 0.693 19 603101 1885 1980 96 1.122 0.366 0.557 3.975 0.273 0.550 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 603102 1889 1980 92 1.215 0.378 1.213 5.364 0.239 0.538 21 603111 1889 1980 92 1.180 0.411 0.816 3.543 0.272 0.563 22 603112 1884 1980 97 1.086 0.441 1.027 4.595 0.297 0.646 23 603121 1907 1980 74 1.769 0.670 0.401 2.287 0.221 0.762 24 603122 1900 1980 81 1.577 0.939 1.036 3.301 0.238 0.878 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 24 FROM 1876 TO 1980 105 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 89 1.398 0.534 0.496 4.208 0.245 0.649 STANDARD DEVIATION 11 0.234 0.128 0.882 3.279 0.040 0.150 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 92 1.391 0.521 0.433 3.318 0.239 0.682 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 17 0.359 0.159 0.907 1.307 0.052 0.158 MINIMUM VALUE 63 1.069 0.366 -0.544 1.747 0.180 0.211 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 81 1.197 0.438 -0.063 2.740 0.223 0.575 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 98 1.556 0.597 0.844 4.048 0.275 0.733 MAXIMUM VALUE 105 1.881 0.939 3.056 16.301 0.312 0.878 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.311 0.338 0.020 -0.549 2.641 -0.538 0.929 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.538 SERIES 603052 AND 603121 74 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.929 SERIES 603061 AND 603062 100 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 78.27 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1900. 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. CORR 78. 171. 253. 276. 276. 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.548 0.308 0.565 0.707 0.561 0.458 0.448 0.614 SDEV 0.222 0.275 0.231 0.159 0.234 0.280 0.248 0.239 SERR 0.025 0.021 0.015 0.010 0.014 0.017 0.015 0.014 EPS 0.955 0.906 0.968 0.983 0.968 0.953 0.951 0.974 NSS 17.5 21.8 23.6 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1876 1980 105 1.389 0.341 0.228 4.312 0.205 0.498 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.053 -0.023 0.515 36 69 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.49 0.93 1.00 1.11 2.04 6.93 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.88 0.06 0.00 0.85 0.92 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 92. 17. 63. 81. 98. 105. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.493 0.312 0.115 0.004 -0.178 -0.061 -0.170 -0.011 -0.003 0.055 PACF 0.493 0.091 -0.092 -0.059 -0.197 0.152 -0.163 0.162 -0.025 0.003 95% C.L. 0.195 0.238 0.253 0.255 0.255 0.260 0.260 0.264 0.264 0.264 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.268 0.508 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 603011 1 1.97268283 0.05686578 0.00000000 0.89782411 2 603012 1 7.22167969 0.54590470 0.00000000 1.38994753 3 603021 1 1.19463408 0.05837984 0.00000000 1.36779392 4 603022 1 1.57728362 0.01690264 0.00000000 0.55383939 5 603031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.02422283 2.31020999 6 603032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00320330 1.57673335 7 603041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01091373 1.04315436 8 603042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01274390 1.00564814 9 603051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01017353 2.19737291 10 603052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00906666 2.36139011 11 603061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01172151 0.49169588 12 603062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01777600 0.35263169 13 603071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00048596 1.36812615 14 603072 1 1.02803683 0.12867446 0.00000000 1.21447396 15 603081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00605483 1.58994508 16 603082 1 0.92701125 0.01682433 0.00000000 0.92630595 17 603091 1 1.66926479 0.02804955 0.00000000 0.38606796 18 603092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01684353 1.79451096 19 603101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00108865 1.06897151 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 603102 1 2.49401736 0.56000936 0.00000000 1.17845333 21 603111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00011806 1.17429292 22 603112 1 0.72720975 0.11150966 0.00000000 1.02273750 23 603121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02539667 0.81613845 24 603122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.03299142 0.22426543 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 603011 1888 1980 93 1.000 0.296 0.001 3.255 0.223 0.577 2 603012 1888 1980 93 1.000 0.299 -0.050 2.858 0.224 0.562 3 603021 1903 1980 78 1.000 0.234 -0.223 4.885 0.231 0.195 4 603022 1897 1980 84 0.999 0.268 0.259 4.466 0.240 0.394 5 603031 1918 1980 63 0.993 0.252 -0.034 2.383 0.188 0.616 6 603032 1881 1980 100 0.999 0.308 -0.061 2.551 0.191 0.725 7 603041 1900 1980 81 0.994 0.364 -0.461 3.087 0.291 0.615 8 603042 1900 1980 81 0.994 0.344 0.036 3.457 0.272 0.474 9 603051 1878 1980 103 0.995 0.273 0.139 2.781 0.185 0.625 10 603052 1876 1980 105 0.996 0.307 0.378 3.980 0.178 0.676 11 603061 1881 1980 100 1.003 0.463 1.100 6.009 0.289 0.621 12 603062 1880 1980 101 1.023 0.449 1.126 5.400 0.273 0.642 13 603071 1882 1980 99 1.000 0.298 -0.319 3.548 0.309 0.208 14 603072 1893 1980 88 1.000 0.307 0.020 3.353 0.299 0.253 15 603081 1887 1980 94 0.999 0.349 0.178 3.798 0.222 0.681 16 603082 1893 1980 88 1.000 0.262 0.108 3.289 0.193 0.525 17 603091 1908 1980 73 1.000 0.282 0.251 3.917 0.253 0.357 18 603092 1909 1980 72 0.996 0.230 0.334 3.140 0.219 0.326 19 603101 1885 1980 96 1.000 0.328 0.653 4.130 0.270 0.543 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 603102 1889 1980 92 1.000 0.282 1.096 5.912 0.232 0.502 21 603111 1889 1980 92 1.000 0.349 0.816 3.535 0.269 0.556 22 603112 1884 1980 97 1.000 0.382 0.797 3.888 0.294 0.624 23 603121 1907 1980 74 1.007 0.239 -0.022 3.523 0.219 0.377 24 603122 1900 1980 81 1.048 0.405 2.675 15.811 0.240 0.418 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 89 1.002 0.315 0.367 4.290 0.242 0.504 STANDARD DEVIATION 11 0.011 0.063 0.665 2.635 0.040 0.154 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 92 1.000 0.303 0.158 3.541 0.236 0.549 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 17 0.003 0.078 0.753 1.100 0.053 0.237 MINIMUM VALUE 63 0.993 0.230 -0.461 2.383 0.178 0.195 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 81 0.997 0.271 -0.028 3.198 0.219 0.386 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 98 1.000 0.349 0.725 4.298 0.272 0.623 MAXIMUM VALUE 105 1.048 0.463 2.675 15.811 0.309 0.725 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 603011 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 603012 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 603021 -67 52 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 603022 -67 56 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 603031 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 603032 -67 67 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 603041 -67 54 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 603042 -67 54 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 603051 -67 69 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 603052 -67 70 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 603061 -67 67 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 603062 -67 67 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 603071 -67 66 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 603072 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 603081 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 603082 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 603091 -67 48 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 603092 -67 48 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 603101 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 603102 -67 61 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 603111 -67 61 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 603112 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 603121 -67 49 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 603122 -67 54 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 603011 1888 1980 93 0.998 0.285 0.028 3.714 0.223 0.547 2 603012 1888 1980 93 0.996 0.238 -0.693 3.982 0.224 0.376 3 603021 1903 1980 78 0.999 0.231 -0.230 5.083 0.231 0.175 4 603022 1897 1980 84 0.997 0.245 0.140 4.837 0.240 0.287 5 603031 1918 1980 63 0.993 0.186 -0.191 3.461 0.188 0.340 6 603032 1881 1980 100 0.996 0.192 -0.296 4.004 0.189 0.279 7 603041 1900 1980 81 0.995 0.346 1.388 10.258 0.291 0.224 8 603042 1900 1980 81 0.997 0.322 0.977 6.943 0.271 0.127 9 603051 1878 1980 103 0.996 0.185 -0.170 4.017 0.184 0.251 10 603052 1876 1980 105 0.994 0.212 0.466 3.349 0.176 0.419 11 603061 1881 1980 100 0.977 0.361 1.132 7.090 0.290 0.468 12 603062 1880 1980 101 0.981 0.309 0.254 4.567 0.271 0.434 13 603071 1882 1980 99 0.998 0.274 -0.566 3.781 0.308 0.121 14 603072 1893 1980 88 0.998 0.290 -0.112 3.699 0.299 0.202 15 603081 1887 1980 94 0.984 0.289 0.293 3.943 0.221 0.580 16 603082 1893 1980 88 0.996 0.244 0.326 3.941 0.191 0.467 17 603091 1908 1980 73 0.997 0.269 0.143 3.969 0.252 0.307 18 603092 1909 1980 72 0.998 0.214 0.159 3.164 0.219 0.212 19 603101 1885 1980 96 0.997 0.298 0.249 3.656 0.270 0.438 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 603102 1889 1980 92 0.998 0.252 0.499 4.352 0.231 0.362 21 603111 1889 1980 92 0.993 0.293 0.459 3.371 0.266 0.397 22 603112 1884 1980 97 0.994 0.338 0.388 3.466 0.293 0.501 23 603121 1907 1980 74 0.998 0.211 -0.314 4.224 0.219 0.247 24 603122 1900 1980 81 0.995 0.281 0.579 4.331 0.239 0.378 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 89 0.994 0.265 0.204 4.467 0.241 0.339 STANDARD DEVIATION 11 0.006 0.051 0.503 1.575 0.040 0.129 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 92 0.996 0.271 0.204 3.976 0.235 0.351 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 17 0.004 0.073 0.643 0.781 0.053 0.200 MINIMUM VALUE 63 0.977 0.185 -0.693 3.164 0.176 0.121 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 81 0.994 0.222 -0.181 3.678 0.219 0.236 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 98 0.998 0.296 0.463 4.459 0.271 0.436 MAXIMUM VALUE 105 0.999 0.361 1.388 10.258 0.308 0.580 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.525 0.146 0.009 -0.277 3.110 0.044 0.902 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.044 SERIES 603061 AND 603082 88 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.902 SERIES 603061 AND 603062 100 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 78.27 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1900. 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. CORR 78. 171. 253. 276. 276. 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.584 0.299 0.622 0.754 0.619 0.518 0.507 0.601 SDEV 0.193 0.264 0.182 0.119 0.204 0.216 0.217 0.202 SERR 0.022 0.020 0.011 0.007 0.012 0.013 0.013 0.012 EPS 0.961 0.903 0.975 0.987 0.975 0.963 0.961 0.973 NSS 17.5 21.8 23.6 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1876 1980 105 0.997 0.194 -0.546 5.120 0.200 0.275 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.189 0.063 0.110 39 66 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.22 0.39 1.00 1.09 1.48 34.59 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.06 0.00 0.87 0.93 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.273 0.100 -0.069 -0.133 -0.275 -0.043 -0.212 0.025 -0.004 0.018 PACF 0.273 0.028 -0.112 -0.099 -0.222 0.102 -0.238 0.109 -0.071 -0.056 95% C.L. 0.195 0.209 0.211 0.212 0.215 0.228 0.228 0.236 0.236 0.236 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.076 0.273 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.229 0.122 -0.002 -0.043 -0.262 -0.030 -0.278 -0.062 -0.093 -0.029 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.229 2 0.212 0.074 3 0.216 0.084 -0.047 4 0.214 0.088 -0.038 -0.045 5 0.202 0.078 -0.016 0.009 -0.253 6 0.226 0.077 -0.014 0.002 -0.272 0.095 7 0.252 0.002 -0.014 -0.002 -0.251 0.157 -0.276 8 0.269 -0.008 0.001 -0.002 -0.250 0.157 -0.291 0.060 9 0.274 -0.032 0.015 -0.023 -0.250 0.157 -0.292 0.083 -0.085 10 0.268 -0.027 -0.004 -0.013 -0.267 0.155 -0.291 0.081 -0.067 -0.066 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 786.42 782.76 784.19 785.95 787.74 782.80 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 783.85 777.52 779.14 780.38 781.92 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.229 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 5.25 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 105.54 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.229 0.053 0.012 0.003 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 603011 1 0.320 0.566 2 603012 1 0.145 0.378 3 603021 1 0.036 0.175 4 603022 1 0.085 0.290 5 603031 1 0.124 0.343 6 603032 1 0.085 0.291 7 603041 1 0.073 0.264 8 603042 1 0.041 0.144 9 603051 1 0.066 0.253 10 603052 1 0.186 0.425 11 603061 1 0.243 0.471 12 603062 1 0.212 0.441 13 603071 1 0.046 0.122 14 603072 1 0.068 0.203 15 603081 1 0.378 0.586 16 603082 1 0.261 0.474 17 603091 1 0.114 0.307 18 603092 1 0.047 0.213 19 603101 1 0.194 0.439 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 603102 1 0.151 0.363 21 603111 1 0.162 0.399 22 603112 1 0.253 0.502 23 603121 1 0.074 0.249 24 603122 1 0.173 0.412 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.147 0.346 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.094 0.129 MEDIAN 1 0.134 0.353 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.132 0.189 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.036 0.122 LOWER HINGE 1 0.071 0.251 UPPER HINGE 1 0.203 0.440 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.378 0.586 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 603011 1888 1980 93 1.000 0.233 -0.151 4.620 0.270 -0.016 2 603012 1888 1980 93 1.000 0.220 -0.688 4.740 0.257 -0.014 3 603021 1903 1980 78 1.000 0.227 -0.314 5.600 0.252 -0.013 4 603022 1897 1980 84 1.000 0.234 0.139 4.966 0.264 0.002 5 603031 1918 1980 63 1.000 0.175 -0.275 3.869 0.208 -0.030 6 603032 1881 1980 100 1.000 0.183 -0.302 3.937 0.215 -0.015 7 603041 1900 1980 81 1.000 0.330 0.987 10.209 0.323 -0.030 8 603042 1900 1980 81 1.000 0.318 0.813 7.248 0.289 0.000 9 603051 1878 1980 103 1.000 0.179 -0.176 4.178 0.206 0.009 10 603052 1876 1980 105 1.000 0.192 0.277 3.531 0.212 -0.030 11 603061 1881 1980 100 1.000 0.318 1.251 7.378 0.346 -0.080 12 603062 1880 1980 101 1.000 0.276 0.637 4.321 0.318 -0.065 13 603071 1882 1980 99 1.000 0.272 -0.470 3.952 0.322 -0.022 14 603072 1893 1980 88 1.000 0.284 -0.086 4.271 0.329 -0.035 15 603081 1887 1980 94 1.000 0.234 0.350 3.999 0.285 -0.133 16 603082 1893 1980 88 1.000 0.214 0.088 5.185 0.246 -0.102 17 603091 1908 1980 73 1.000 0.256 0.266 4.015 0.295 -0.046 18 603092 1909 1980 72 1.000 0.209 0.269 3.181 0.238 -0.008 19 603101 1885 1980 96 1.000 0.268 0.156 3.325 0.321 -0.016 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 603102 1889 1980 92 1.000 0.235 0.316 3.942 0.272 -0.053 21 603111 1889 1980 92 1.000 0.268 0.592 3.602 0.307 -0.026 22 603112 1884 1980 97 1.000 0.292 0.422 3.747 0.332 -0.017 23 603121 1907 1980 74 1.000 0.204 -0.265 4.316 0.241 0.027 24 603122 1900 1980 81 1.000 0.253 0.386 4.347 0.272 -0.009 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 89 1.000 0.245 0.176 4.687 0.276 -0.030 STANDARD DEVIATION 11 0.000 0.045 0.472 1.575 0.043 0.036 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 92 1.000 0.234 0.211 4.225 0.272 -0.020 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 17 0.000 0.062 0.625 0.949 0.076 0.029 MINIMUM VALUE 63 1.000 0.175 -0.688 3.181 0.206 -0.133 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 81 1.000 0.212 -0.221 3.903 0.243 -0.040 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 98 1.000 0.274 0.404 4.853 0.319 -0.011 MAXIMUM VALUE 105 1.000 0.330 1.251 10.209 0.346 0.027 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.591 0.112 0.007 -0.115 2.875 0.309 0.899 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.309 SERIES 603041 AND 603051 81 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.899 SERIES 603061 AND 603062 100 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 78.27 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1900. 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. CORR 78. 171. 253. 276. 276. 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.631 0.434 0.668 0.774 0.692 0.605 0.579 0.594 SDEV 0.148 0.210 0.145 0.089 0.125 0.148 0.147 0.176 SERR 0.017 0.016 0.009 0.005 0.007 0.009 0.009 0.011 EPS 0.968 0.943 0.979 0.988 0.982 0.974 0.971 0.972 NSS 17.5 21.8 23.6 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1876 1980 105 0.999 0.181 -0.415 5.055 0.222 -0.096 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.164 0.047 0.101 41 64 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.18 0.62 1.01 1.06 1.68 21.45 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.06 0.00 0.87 0.93 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.095 0.026 -0.038 -0.028 -0.244 0.128 -0.251 0.094 -0.022 0.054 PACF -0.095 0.017 -0.034 -0.035 -0.251 0.085 -0.247 0.044 -0.041 -0.012 95% C.L. 0.195 0.197 0.197 0.197 0.197 0.209 0.212 0.223 0.224 0.224 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.002 0.013 -0.039 -0.055 -0.239 0.082 -0.235 0.070 -0.008 0.038 PACF 0.002 0.013 -0.039 -0.055 -0.239 0.085 -0.251 0.064 -0.048 -0.022 95% C.L. 0.195 0.195 0.195 0.196 0.196 0.207 0.208 0.218 0.219 0.219 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.000 0.002 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1876 1980 105 1.000 0.185 -0.552 4.977 0.194 0.233 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.231 0.052 -0.048 -0.113 -0.245 -0.026 -0.213 0.016 -0.003 0.008 PACF 0.231 -0.001 -0.063 -0.094 -0.208 0.083 -0.246 0.105 -0.073 -0.043 95% C.L. 0.195 0.205 0.206 0.206 0.209 0.219 0.219 0.227 0.227 0.227 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.054 0.232 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.25 MINUTES