RUN: swit FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWIT120E.rwl LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWIT120E.rwl_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 20 10 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 604 1 Bannwald Nord WIDTH_EARLY PCAB - 604 2 Switzerland Norway spruce 1240 4620-738 1788 1980 - 604 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 6 604232 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 22 IN 2 GAPS / 1827 1827 / 1849 1869 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 8 604242 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1893 1898 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 604211 1897 1980 84 1.898 0.602 0.597 3.255 0.208 0.712 2 604212 1895 1980 86 1.771 0.455 0.799 3.877 0.185 0.598 3 604221 1877 1980 104 1.521 0.737 0.835 2.508 0.231 0.854 4 604222 1878 1980 103 1.462 0.690 1.098 3.984 0.274 0.745 5 604231 1798 1980 183 0.690 0.435 0.780 3.355 0.353 0.813 6 604232 1790 1980 191 0.627 0.386 0.477 2.784 0.350 0.784 7 604241 1876 1980 105 1.158 0.559 1.142 5.331 0.270 0.706 8 604242 1874 1980 107 1.327 0.588 0.852 3.245 0.272 0.708 9 604251 1856 1980 125 1.415 0.729 0.848 3.153 0.222 0.813 10 604252 1853 1980 128 1.216 0.590 1.244 4.189 0.238 0.817 11 604261 1873 1980 108 1.340 0.491 1.955 9.593 0.220 0.718 12 604262 1872 1980 109 1.421 0.576 1.005 4.261 0.236 0.647 13 604271 1875 1980 106 1.137 1.000 1.349 4.199 0.239 0.963 14 604272 1875 1980 106 1.026 0.766 1.091 3.517 0.252 0.941 15 604281 1885 1980 96 1.771 0.617 1.433 5.669 0.186 0.776 16 604282 1889 1980 92 1.693 0.832 1.224 4.807 0.190 0.894 17 604291 1897 1980 84 2.270 0.893 0.081 1.905 0.182 0.830 18 604292 1869 1980 112 2.070 0.708 0.681 3.378 0.200 0.724 19 604301 1788 1980 193 1.156 0.915 1.978 11.536 0.291 0.892 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 604302 1861 1980 120 1.530 0.610 1.706 7.581 0.210 0.782 21 604311 1850 1980 131 0.921 0.441 0.732 2.758 0.265 0.784 22 604312 1822 1980 159 0.952 0.510 1.192 4.016 0.250 0.831 23 604321 1894 1980 87 2.027 0.585 0.265 3.695 0.242 0.483 24 604322 1895 1980 86 1.971 0.532 -0.299 3.574 0.214 0.562 25 604331 1902 1980 79 1.715 0.468 0.830 5.361 0.210 0.457 26 604332 1895 1980 86 1.719 0.428 0.322 3.001 0.219 0.417 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 26 FROM 1788 TO 1980 193 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 113 1.454 0.621 0.931 4.405 0.239 0.740 STANDARD DEVIATION 31 0.429 0.163 0.532 2.169 0.045 0.142 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 105 1.441 0.589 0.850 3.786 0.233 0.779 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 38 0.615 0.238 0.543 1.562 0.056 0.123 MINIMUM VALUE 79 0.627 0.386 -0.299 1.905 0.182 0.417 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 87 1.156 0.491 0.681 3.245 0.210 0.706 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 125 1.771 0.729 1.224 4.807 0.265 0.830 MAXIMUM VALUE 193 2.270 1.000 1.978 11.536 0.353 0.963 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.430 0.227 0.013 -0.055 2.518 -0.176 0.957 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.176 SERIES 604272 AND 604321 87 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.957 SERIES 604271 AND 604272 106 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 50.27 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1810. 1820. 1830. 1840. 1850. 1860. 1870. 1880. 1890. 1900. CORR 3. 3. 3. 6. 6. 10. 21. 36. 136. 171. RBAR 0.777 0.541 0.230 0.393 0.146 0.572 0.583 0.334 0.382 0.350 SDEV 0.023 0.229 0.525 0.291 0.557 0.174 0.286 0.358 0.381 0.331 SERR 0.013 0.132 0.303 0.119 0.227 0.055 0.062 0.060 0.033 0.025 EPS 0.913 0.800 0.538 0.721 0.464 0.904 0.936 0.885 0.924 0.927 NSS 3.0 3.4 3.9 4.0 5.1 7.1 10.5 15.3 19.6 23.8 YEAR 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. CORR 300. 325. 325. 325. 325. 325. 325. RBAR 0.256 0.748 0.542 0.252 0.371 0.334 0.580 SDEV 0.275 0.123 0.226 0.419 0.304 0.361 0.244 SERR 0.016 0.007 0.013 0.023 0.017 0.020 0.014 EPS 0.899 0.987 0.969 0.898 0.939 0.929 0.973 NSS 25.9 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1788 1980 193 1.013 0.611 0.150 2.068 0.253 0.921 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.837 0.390 0.047 50 143 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.21 0.70 1.00 1.08 1.79 256.30 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.96 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 106. 38. 79. 87. 125. 193. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.916 0.883 0.846 0.815 0.782 0.785 0.770 0.774 0.756 0.747 PACF 0.916 0.275 0.056 0.036 -0.007 0.230 0.031 0.119 -0.051 0.012 95% C.L. 0.144 0.236 0.296 0.343 0.381 0.413 0.443 0.470 0.495 0.519 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.852 0.670 0.269 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 604211 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00167541 1.82689047 2 604212 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00089183 1.80937624 3 604221 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01181185 2.14156461 4 604222 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00615297 1.78189600 5 604231 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00303516 0.41114813 6 604232 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00231929 0.38185975 7 604241 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01121252 1.75207329 8 604242 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01076024 1.89768803 9 604251 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01527220 2.37670827 10 604252 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01037831 1.88549459 11 604261 1 1.73684573 0.11412588 0.00000000 1.20679092 12 604262 1 1.67507744 0.01661826 0.00000000 0.65337175 13 604271 1 3.78664827 0.03130876 0.00000000 0.05466405 14 604272 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 604281 1 1.72423458 0.04814916 0.00000000 1.41061687 16 604282 1 3.17097473 0.08401409 0.00000000 1.30017209 17 604291 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.02221859 3.21417093 18 604292 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00320609 2.25078678 19 604301 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00926019 0.25782385 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 604302 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00005115 1.52732217 21 604311 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00008034 0.91523194 22 604312 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00180639 0.80706072 23 604321 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00580320 1.77144074 24 604322 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00723393 1.65648699 25 604331 1 1.60906994 0.17424735 0.00000000 1.60793471 26 604332 1 0.74578184 0.05213735 0.00000000 1.55852377 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 604211 1897 1980 84 1.000 0.319 0.714 3.606 0.206 0.708 2 604212 1895 1980 86 1.000 0.256 0.781 3.826 0.183 0.588 3 604221 1877 1980 104 1.000 0.389 0.340 2.485 0.229 0.748 4 604222 1878 1980 103 1.001 0.441 0.803 3.394 0.271 0.712 5 604231 1798 1980 183 0.990 0.620 1.089 4.171 0.351 0.785 6 604232 1790 1980 191 0.993 0.595 0.531 2.757 0.367 0.763 7 604241 1876 1980 105 0.994 0.374 0.995 4.964 0.267 0.598 8 604242 1874 1980 107 1.000 0.343 0.709 3.362 0.263 0.521 9 604251 1856 1980 125 1.003 0.299 0.275 3.321 0.219 0.598 10 604252 1853 1980 128 1.010 0.343 0.311 2.865 0.236 0.664 11 604261 1873 1980 108 1.000 0.272 0.150 2.670 0.216 0.543 12 604262 1872 1980 109 1.000 0.290 0.422 3.201 0.233 0.478 13 604271 1875 1980 106 0.997 0.293 0.478 5.101 0.238 0.495 14 604272 1875 1980 106 0.999 0.326 0.386 3.983 0.250 0.598 15 604281 1885 1980 96 1.000 0.239 0.126 3.055 0.185 0.519 16 604282 1889 1980 92 1.000 0.346 0.819 4.167 0.187 0.775 17 604291 1897 1980 84 0.998 0.331 0.692 3.794 0.179 0.760 18 604292 1869 1980 112 1.000 0.337 0.635 3.209 0.198 0.710 19 604301 1788 1980 193 0.984 0.802 2.797 13.332 0.290 0.863 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 604302 1861 1980 120 1.000 0.399 1.712 7.606 0.209 0.776 21 604311 1850 1980 131 1.000 0.479 0.737 2.764 0.263 0.779 22 604312 1822 1980 159 0.998 0.531 1.301 4.347 0.249 0.823 23 604321 1894 1980 87 1.000 0.276 0.060 3.750 0.239 0.449 24 604322 1895 1980 86 1.001 0.261 -0.278 3.759 0.212 0.528 25 604331 1902 1980 79 1.000 0.227 -0.151 3.241 0.206 0.374 26 604332 1895 1980 86 1.000 0.221 -0.225 2.357 0.216 0.247 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 114 0.999 0.370 0.623 4.042 0.237 0.631 STANDARD DEVIATION 32 0.005 0.138 0.639 2.171 0.046 0.153 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 106 1.000 0.334 0.583 3.500 0.231 0.631 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 38 0.002 0.123 0.528 1.112 0.056 0.243 MINIMUM VALUE 79 0.984 0.221 -0.278 2.357 0.179 0.247 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 87 0.998 0.276 0.275 3.055 0.206 0.521 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 125 1.000 0.399 0.803 4.167 0.263 0.763 MAXIMUM VALUE 193 1.010 0.802 2.797 13.332 0.367 0.863 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 604211 -67 56 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 604212 -67 57 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 604221 -67 69 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 604222 -67 69 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 604231 -67 122 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 604232 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 604241 -67 70 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 604242 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 604251 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 604252 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 604261 -67 72 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 604262 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 604271 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 604272 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 604281 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 604282 -67 61 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 604291 -67 56 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 604292 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 604301 -67 129 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 604302 -67 80 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 604311 -67 87 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 604312 -67 106 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 604321 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 604322 -67 57 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 604331 -67 52 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 604332 -67 57 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 604211 1897 1980 84 0.989 0.241 0.622 3.692 0.206 0.483 2 604212 1895 1980 86 0.997 0.237 0.755 3.688 0.183 0.511 3 604221 1877 1980 104 0.981 0.300 0.320 3.710 0.227 0.592 4 604222 1878 1980 103 0.982 0.360 0.618 3.432 0.271 0.603 5 604231 1798 1980 183 0.967 0.511 0.924 4.263 0.351 0.658 6 604232 1790 1980 191 0.948 0.435 0.267 2.861 0.367 0.574 7 604241 1876 1980 105 0.993 0.342 1.015 5.596 0.267 0.515 8 604242 1874 1980 107 0.996 0.328 0.730 3.500 0.263 0.479 9 604251 1856 1980 125 0.997 0.286 0.441 4.177 0.219 0.550 10 604252 1853 1980 128 0.993 0.283 -0.070 2.973 0.235 0.526 11 604261 1873 1980 108 0.998 0.259 0.234 3.128 0.216 0.503 12 604262 1872 1980 109 0.998 0.282 0.442 3.334 0.232 0.460 13 604271 1875 1980 106 0.998 0.286 0.463 5.214 0.238 0.470 14 604272 1875 1980 106 0.997 0.309 0.111 3.704 0.250 0.562 15 604281 1885 1980 96 0.999 0.233 0.079 2.967 0.184 0.494 16 604282 1889 1980 92 0.991 0.292 0.463 3.365 0.186 0.684 17 604291 1897 1980 84 0.997 0.313 0.521 3.779 0.179 0.734 18 604292 1869 1980 112 0.998 0.317 0.634 3.354 0.199 0.675 19 604301 1788 1980 193 0.929 0.553 2.251 11.547 0.289 0.806 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 604302 1861 1980 120 0.992 0.325 1.525 7.352 0.210 0.673 21 604311 1850 1980 131 0.991 0.351 0.359 2.557 0.265 0.622 22 604312 1822 1980 159 0.991 0.367 0.681 3.319 0.249 0.685 23 604321 1894 1980 87 0.996 0.258 -0.044 3.876 0.239 0.375 24 604322 1895 1980 86 0.996 0.232 -0.404 4.116 0.212 0.403 25 604331 1902 1980 79 0.999 0.207 -0.195 3.509 0.206 0.244 26 604332 1895 1980 86 0.998 0.208 -0.207 2.516 0.216 0.153 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 114 0.989 0.312 0.482 4.059 0.237 0.540 STANDARD DEVIATION 32 0.017 0.084 0.555 1.829 0.047 0.144 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 106 0.996 0.296 0.452 3.598 0.230 0.538 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 38 0.007 0.084 0.570 0.797 0.056 0.179 MINIMUM VALUE 79 0.929 0.207 -0.404 2.516 0.179 0.153 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 87 0.991 0.258 0.111 3.319 0.206 0.479 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 125 0.998 0.342 0.681 4.116 0.263 0.658 MAXIMUM VALUE 193 0.999 0.553 2.251 11.547 0.367 0.806 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.412 0.171 0.009 0.085 2.621 0.022 0.841 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.022 SERIES 604231 AND 604251 125 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.841 SERIES 604221 AND 604222 103 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 50.27 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1810. 1820. 1830. 1840. 1850. 1860. 1870. 1880. 1890. 1900. CORR 3. 3. 3. 6. 6. 10. 21. 36. 136. 171. RBAR 0.755 0.540 0.251 0.265 0.115 0.304 0.446 0.354 0.447 0.379 SDEV 0.022 0.256 0.508 0.333 0.417 0.290 0.291 0.311 0.276 0.253 SERR 0.013 0.148 0.293 0.136 0.170 0.092 0.063 0.052 0.024 0.019 EPS 0.903 0.799 0.567 0.590 0.395 0.755 0.894 0.893 0.941 0.935 NSS 3.0 3.4 3.9 4.0 5.1 7.1 10.5 15.3 19.6 23.8 YEAR 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. CORR 300. 325. 325. 325. 325. 325. 325. RBAR 0.291 0.718 0.600 0.285 0.386 0.388 0.563 SDEV 0.297 0.123 0.162 0.361 0.283 0.308 0.237 SERR 0.017 0.007 0.009 0.020 0.016 0.017 0.013 EPS 0.914 0.985 0.975 0.912 0.942 0.943 0.971 NSS 25.9 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1788 1980 193 0.946 0.366 0.722 5.232 0.282 0.661 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.193 0.089 0.179 44 149 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.33 0.79 1.00 1.13 1.92 7.66 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.95 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.657 0.519 0.341 0.220 0.118 0.117 0.146 0.193 0.190 0.171 PACF 0.657 0.154 -0.088 -0.039 -0.033 0.103 0.110 0.084 -0.018 -0.032 95% C.L. 0.144 0.197 0.223 0.234 0.238 0.239 0.240 0.242 0.245 0.248 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.474 0.530 0.208 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.475 0.308 0.096 -0.014 -0.226 -0.108 -0.197 -0.038 -0.088 -0.008 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.475 2 0.424 0.107 3 0.436 0.154 -0.112 4 0.429 0.164 -0.083 -0.066 5 0.413 0.145 -0.044 0.036 -0.238 6 0.444 0.140 -0.038 0.017 -0.292 0.131 7 0.462 0.102 -0.036 0.012 -0.274 0.190 -0.131 8 0.478 0.078 -0.001 0.011 -0.269 0.177 -0.189 0.126 9 0.492 0.057 0.018 -0.019 -0.268 0.177 -0.181 0.178 -0.110 10 0.491 0.058 0.017 -0.018 -0.270 0.177 -0.180 0.179 -0.106 -0.008 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1527.56 1480.22 1480.01 1479.58 1480.74 1471.48 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1470.12 1468.78 1467.70 1467.36 1469.35 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 3 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.436 0.154 -0.112 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 24.40 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 132.27 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 3) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.436 0.344 0.106 0.050 0.000 -0.004 -0.007 -0.004 -0.002 -.0008 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 604211 3 0.281 0.384 0.254 -0.050 2 604212 3 0.306 0.478 0.174 -0.130 3 604221 3 0.373 0.572 0.110 -0.115 4 604222 3 0.379 0.608 0.058 -0.108 5 604231 3 0.501 0.487 0.229 0.058 6 604232 3 0.405 0.392 0.172 0.182 7 604241 3 0.300 0.491 0.109 -0.060 8 604242 3 0.246 0.440 0.037 0.088 9 604251 3 0.347 0.530 0.046 0.004 10 604252 3 0.296 0.450 0.125 0.032 11 604261 3 0.269 0.491 0.092 -0.108 12 604262 3 0.257 0.408 0.159 -0.052 13 604271 3 0.316 0.414 0.321 -0.219 14 604272 3 0.363 0.478 0.256 -0.122 15 604281 3 0.255 0.503 0.016 -0.021 16 604282 3 0.490 0.585 0.124 0.029 17 604291 3 0.576 0.816 -0.021 -0.132 18 604292 3 0.485 0.675 0.130 -0.191 19 604301 3 0.679 0.855 -0.027 -0.024 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 604302 3 0.463 0.707 -0.018 -0.041 21 604311 3 0.401 0.618 0.079 -0.105 22 604312 3 0.490 0.631 0.120 -0.043 23 604321 3 0.179 0.306 0.180 0.023 24 604322 3 0.189 0.338 0.102 0.087 25 604331 3 0.073 0.228 0.092 -0.036 26 604332 3 0.115 0.142 0.299 -0.101 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 3 0.347 0.501 0.124 -0.044 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.141 0.164 0.094 0.091 MEDIAN 3 0.332 0.489 0.115 -0.046 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.206 0.200 0.116 0.131 MINIMUM VALUE 3 0.073 0.142 -0.027 -0.219 LOWER HINGE 3 0.257 0.408 0.058 -0.108 UPPER HINGE 3 0.463 0.608 0.174 0.023 MAXIMUM VALUE 3 0.679 0.855 0.321 0.182 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 604211 1897 1980 84 1.000 0.204 0.682 3.371 0.235 -0.003 2 604212 1895 1980 86 1.000 0.199 0.622 3.384 0.220 -0.012 3 604221 1877 1980 104 1.000 0.239 0.530 4.206 0.273 0.013 4 604222 1878 1980 103 1.000 0.285 0.624 3.140 0.324 0.011 5 604231 1798 1980 183 1.001 0.357 1.124 7.466 0.393 -0.013 6 604232 1790 1980 191 1.000 0.335 0.225 3.890 0.391 0.011 7 604241 1876 1980 105 1.000 0.288 1.070 6.275 0.317 0.005 8 604242 1874 1980 107 1.000 0.285 0.485 3.388 0.323 0.009 9 604251 1856 1980 125 1.000 0.237 0.281 4.280 0.273 -0.004 10 604252 1853 1980 128 1.000 0.238 -0.314 4.033 0.282 0.001 11 604261 1873 1980 108 1.000 0.221 0.244 4.305 0.255 -0.009 12 604262 1872 1980 109 1.000 0.247 0.574 3.918 0.267 -0.006 13 604271 1875 1980 106 1.000 0.237 0.139 5.021 0.258 -0.022 14 604272 1875 1980 106 1.000 0.247 -0.469 4.056 0.288 -0.013 15 604281 1885 1980 96 1.000 0.200 -0.397 3.581 0.232 -0.003 16 604282 1889 1980 92 1.000 0.210 0.003 4.168 0.234 0.002 17 604291 1897 1980 84 1.000 0.208 -0.091 3.802 0.242 -0.025 18 604292 1869 1980 112 1.000 0.229 0.693 4.901 0.257 -0.024 19 604301 1788 1980 193 1.000 0.316 1.481 9.250 0.330 -0.012 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 604302 1861 1980 120 1.000 0.238 0.870 5.842 0.264 -0.004 21 604311 1850 1980 131 1.000 0.272 0.208 3.166 0.324 -0.011 22 604312 1822 1980 159 1.000 0.263 0.169 4.002 0.306 -0.012 23 604321 1894 1980 87 1.000 0.234 0.191 4.180 0.276 0.006 24 604322 1895 1980 86 1.000 0.210 -0.094 4.401 0.243 -0.007 25 604331 1902 1980 79 1.000 0.200 -0.338 4.407 0.230 -0.004 26 604332 1895 1980 86 1.000 0.195 -0.240 3.438 0.223 -0.010 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 114 1.000 0.246 0.318 4.457 0.279 -0.005 STANDARD DEVIATION 32 0.000 0.043 0.501 1.390 0.047 0.010 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 106 1.000 0.237 0.234 4.112 0.270 -0.005 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 38 0.000 0.062 0.715 0.825 0.075 0.014 MINIMUM VALUE 79 1.000 0.195 -0.469 3.140 0.220 -0.025 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 87 1.000 0.210 -0.091 3.581 0.242 -0.012 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 125 1.000 0.272 0.624 4.407 0.317 0.002 MAXIMUM VALUE 193 1.001 0.357 1.481 9.250 0.393 0.013 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.480 0.119 0.007 0.209 3.067 0.183 0.814 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.183 SERIES 604231 AND 604311 131 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.814 SERIES 604241 AND 604242 105 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 50.27 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1810. 1820. 1830. 1840. 1850. 1860. 1870. 1880. 1890. 1900. CORR 3. 3. 3. 6. 6. 10. 21. 36. 136. 171. RBAR 0.714 0.555 0.402 0.414 0.427 0.318 0.422 0.494 0.461 0.255 SDEV 0.092 0.284 0.336 0.258 0.211 0.276 0.264 0.206 0.179 0.216 SERR 0.053 0.164 0.194 0.105 0.086 0.087 0.058 0.034 0.015 0.017 EPS 0.882 0.809 0.724 0.739 0.790 0.766 0.885 0.937 0.944 0.890 NSS 3.0 3.4 3.9 4.0 5.1 7.1 10.5 15.3 19.6 23.8 YEAR 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. CORR 300. 325. 325. 325. 325. 325. 325. RBAR 0.333 0.694 0.633 0.422 0.501 0.459 0.553 SDEV 0.215 0.107 0.148 0.256 0.195 0.191 0.167 SERR 0.012 0.006 0.008 0.014 0.011 0.011 0.009 EPS 0.928 0.983 0.978 0.950 0.963 0.957 0.970 NSS 25.9 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1788 1980 193 0.984 0.232 0.623 6.780 0.274 -0.018 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.072 0.036 0.140 50 143 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.39 0.94 1.00 1.13 2.08 10.86 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.97 0.11 0.00 0.89 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.018 0.077 -0.011 -0.023 -0.202 -0.071 -0.043 0.093 0.047 -0.001 PACF -0.018 0.077 -0.008 -0.030 -0.203 -0.078 -0.017 0.107 0.052 -0.061 95% C.L. 0.144 0.144 0.145 0.145 0.145 0.151 0.151 0.152 0.153 0.153 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.000 -0.001 0.011 -0.028 -0.200 -0.081 -0.030 0.098 0.057 -0.011 PACF 0.000 -0.001 0.011 -0.028 -0.200 -0.086 -0.034 0.106 0.055 -0.055 95% C.L. 0.144 0.144 0.144 0.144 0.144 0.150 0.151 0.151 0.152 0.153 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.001 0.000 -0.001 0.012 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1788 1980 193 0.984 0.269 0.640 6.197 0.232 0.479 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.476 0.287 0.028 -0.101 -0.242 -0.167 -0.081 0.051 0.053 0.025 PACF 0.476 0.078 -0.176 -0.100 -0.160 0.053 0.063 0.075 -0.055 -0.093 95% C.L. 0.144 0.174 0.183 0.183 0.184 0.191 0.194 0.195 0.195 0.195 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.239 0.481 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 4.32 MINUTES