RUN: SWIT001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWIT121P.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWIT121P.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 606 1 Mittleri Hellelawald LATEWOOD_PERCENT ABAL - 606 2 Switzerland silver fir, European fir 1510 4618-750 1812 1980 - 606 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 606011 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1929 1929 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 606021 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1836 1837 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 606022 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1836 1836 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 26 606132 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1911 1911 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 606011 1843 1980 138 2.009 0.594 0.318 3.913 0.220 0.519 2 606012 1852 1980 129 2.120 0.598 0.655 3.470 0.248 0.415 3 606021 1818 1980 163 2.243 0.688 1.323 5.757 0.255 0.426 4 606022 1812 1980 169 2.247 0.770 1.647 8.630 0.235 0.541 5 606031 1824 1980 157 2.372 0.598 0.348 3.224 0.233 0.399 6 606032 1832 1980 149 2.847 0.543 0.215 3.140 0.192 0.224 7 606041 1853 1980 128 2.448 0.666 1.067 5.079 0.256 0.214 8 606042 1855 1980 126 2.189 0.630 1.435 8.147 0.279 0.226 9 606051 1893 1980 88 1.806 0.468 0.102 2.751 0.206 0.489 10 606052 1899 1980 82 2.059 0.536 1.070 5.119 0.238 0.125 11 606061 1871 1980 110 2.362 0.643 0.044 2.603 0.195 0.594 12 606062 1869 1980 112 2.287 0.495 -0.097 2.923 0.190 0.439 13 606071 1893 1980 88 2.596 0.614 2.248 12.857 0.181 0.404 14 606072 1891 1980 90 2.689 0.602 0.575 3.404 0.190 0.390 15 606081 1848 1961 114 2.124 0.577 -0.255 2.521 0.236 0.478 16 606082 1854 1980 127 2.109 0.539 0.319 2.866 0.251 0.364 17 606091 1830 1980 151 2.328 0.643 0.562 3.349 0.238 0.260 18 606092 1837 1980 144 2.461 0.868 4.007 29.706 0.254 0.386 19 606101 1893 1980 88 1.920 0.405 1.016 3.722 0.192 0.266 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 606102 1893 1980 88 2.385 0.545 0.653 3.726 0.203 0.442 21 606111 1844 1980 137 2.393 0.964 1.333 5.668 0.268 0.644 22 606112 1846 1980 135 2.690 0.796 1.501 7.393 0.240 0.415 23 606121 1836 1980 145 1.750 0.461 1.245 5.844 0.224 0.429 24 606122 1868 1980 113 1.661 0.446 0.083 2.670 0.229 0.457 25 606131 1828 1980 153 1.821 0.592 1.540 6.226 0.225 0.568 26 606132 1823 1980 158 1.923 0.556 1.542 7.037 0.215 0.481 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 26 FROM 1812 TO 1980 169 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 126 2.225 0.609 0.942 5.836 0.227 0.407 STANDARD DEVIATION 26 0.306 0.128 0.898 5.441 0.027 0.126 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 128 2.245 0.596 0.836 3.820 0.231 0.420 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 39 0.384 0.104 1.117 3.086 0.045 0.118 MINIMUM VALUE 82 1.661 0.405 -0.255 2.521 0.181 0.125 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 110 2.009 0.539 0.318 3.140 0.203 0.364 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 149 2.393 0.643 1.435 6.226 0.248 0.481 MAXIMUM VALUE 168 2.847 0.964 4.007 29.706 0.279 0.644 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.285 0.177 0.010 0.042 3.429 -0.341 0.807 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.341 SERIES 606061 AND 606111 110 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.807 SERIES 606081 AND 606082 108 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 65.15 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 55. 171. 300. 300. RBAR 0.246 0.391 0.353 0.385 SDEV 0.211 0.169 0.212 0.202 SERR 0.028 0.013 0.012 0.012 EPS 0.855 0.937 0.934 0.942 NSS 18.0 23.1 25.9 25.8 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1812 1980 169 2.158 0.354 -0.008 2.640 0.166 0.248 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.532 0.300 -0.101 45 124 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.20 1.44 1.01 1.06 2.50 41.80 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.07 0.00 0.87 0.94 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 128. 39. 82. 110. 149. 169. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.247 0.109 0.083 0.052 0.137 0.033 0.070 0.036 -0.016 -0.058 PACF 0.247 0.051 0.048 0.017 0.120 -0.034 0.055 -0.006 -0.036 -0.075 95% C.L. 0.154 0.163 0.165 0.166 0.166 0.169 0.169 0.169 0.170 0.170 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.064 0.248 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 606011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00333530 1.77968824 2 606012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00093129 2.18037915 3 606021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00254475 2.02815890 4 606022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00373116 1.92804635 5 606031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00625953 2.86622238 6 606032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00286820 2.63173056 7 606041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00718641 1.98397636 8 606042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00277591 2.01230097 9 606051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00698117 2.11691213 10 606052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00418955 2.23264670 11 606061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00689119 1.97908425 12 606062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00779098 1.84722006 13 606071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00350419 2.75173187 14 606072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00044779 2.70948553 15 606081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00352492 1.92135227 16 606082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00087141 2.16490436 17 606091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00024127 2.31014037 18 606092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00233152 2.63028550 19 606101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00365785 2.08322883 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 606102 1 1.28065932 0.13471505 0.00000000 2.28431439 21 606111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01180335 3.20742369 22 606112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00067189 2.73576236 23 606121 1 0.23433831 0.00607814 0.00000000 1.59493828 24 606122 1 0.72970915 0.06678603 0.00000000 1.56743765 25 606131 1 1.30368066 0.01780434 0.00000000 1.37818074 26 606132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00660567 2.44997525 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 606011 1843 1980 138 0.999 0.294 0.545 3.942 0.216 0.520 2 606012 1852 1980 129 1.000 0.280 0.597 3.347 0.246 0.400 3 606021 1818 1980 163 1.000 0.306 1.672 7.548 0.252 0.429 4 606022 1812 1980 169 1.000 0.337 2.215 13.218 0.232 0.536 5 606031 1824 1980 157 1.000 0.220 -0.020 2.590 0.231 0.206 6 606032 1832 1980 149 1.000 0.185 0.172 3.205 0.191 0.178 7 606041 1853 1980 128 1.000 0.247 1.207 6.271 0.254 0.071 8 606042 1855 1980 126 1.000 0.282 1.406 8.341 0.277 0.211 9 606051 1893 1980 88 0.999 0.243 0.331 3.076 0.204 0.449 10 606052 1899 1980 82 1.000 0.256 1.085 4.852 0.235 0.102 11 606061 1871 1980 110 0.999 0.263 0.444 2.868 0.193 0.557 12 606062 1869 1980 112 1.000 0.193 0.168 3.367 0.188 0.285 13 606071 1893 1980 88 1.000 0.236 2.500 14.431 0.179 0.381 14 606072 1891 1980 90 1.000 0.224 0.595 3.427 0.188 0.386 15 606081 1848 1961 114 1.000 0.271 -0.086 2.541 0.234 0.459 16 606082 1854 1980 127 1.000 0.254 0.262 2.777 0.249 0.353 17 606091 1830 1980 151 1.000 0.277 0.577 3.355 0.236 0.259 18 606092 1837 1980 144 1.000 0.346 3.955 29.604 0.252 0.370 19 606101 1893 1980 88 1.000 0.201 0.713 2.991 0.190 0.230 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 606102 1893 1980 88 1.000 0.205 0.206 2.910 0.200 0.304 21 606111 1844 1980 137 1.001 0.348 1.240 5.397 0.266 0.410 22 606112 1846 1980 135 1.000 0.296 1.475 7.199 0.238 0.406 23 606121 1836 1980 145 1.000 0.260 1.099 5.193 0.222 0.410 24 606122 1868 1980 113 1.000 0.255 0.068 2.593 0.228 0.386 25 606131 1828 1980 153 1.000 0.249 0.654 4.017 0.223 0.371 26 606132 1823 1980 158 1.000 0.227 0.942 5.074 0.213 0.232 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 126 1.000 0.260 0.924 5.928 0.224 0.342 STANDARD DEVIATION 26 0.000 0.044 0.907 5.723 0.027 0.127 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 128 1.000 0.255 0.625 3.685 0.229 0.376 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 39 0.000 0.055 0.979 3.280 0.046 0.178 MINIMUM VALUE 82 0.999 0.185 -0.086 2.541 0.179 0.071 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 110 1.000 0.227 0.262 2.991 0.200 0.232 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 149 1.000 0.282 1.240 6.271 0.246 0.410 MAXIMUM VALUE 169 1.001 0.348 3.955 29.604 0.277 0.557 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 606011 -67 92 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 606012 -67 86 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 606021 -67 109 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 606022 -67 113 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 606031 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 606032 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 606041 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 606042 -67 84 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 606051 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 606052 -67 54 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 606061 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 606062 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 606071 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 606072 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 606081 -67 76 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 606082 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 606091 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 606092 -67 96 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 606101 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 606102 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 606111 -67 91 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 606112 -67 90 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 606121 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 606122 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 606131 -67 102 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 606132 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 606011 1843 1980 138 0.994 0.228 0.599 3.823 0.216 0.279 2 606012 1852 1980 129 0.997 0.235 0.315 3.047 0.247 0.177 3 606021 1818 1980 163 0.999 0.302 1.678 7.430 0.252 0.408 4 606022 1812 1980 169 0.999 0.332 2.240 13.482 0.232 0.518 5 606031 1824 1980 157 0.999 0.215 -0.004 2.669 0.231 0.168 6 606032 1832 1980 149 0.999 0.175 0.204 3.233 0.191 0.093 7 606041 1853 1980 128 0.999 0.241 1.105 5.902 0.254 0.028 8 606042 1855 1980 126 0.999 0.272 1.147 6.641 0.277 0.159 9 606051 1893 1980 88 0.997 0.214 0.177 2.705 0.203 0.254 10 606052 1899 1980 82 0.998 0.246 1.830 8.305 0.235 -0.042 11 606061 1871 1980 110 0.998 0.197 0.285 2.572 0.192 0.274 12 606062 1869 1980 112 0.999 0.186 0.086 3.296 0.188 0.230 13 606071 1893 1980 88 0.998 0.203 2.061 11.919 0.178 0.234 14 606072 1891 1980 90 0.998 0.180 0.216 2.614 0.188 0.062 15 606081 1848 1961 114 0.995 0.241 0.038 2.623 0.233 0.317 16 606082 1854 1980 127 0.997 0.236 0.176 2.654 0.248 0.236 17 606091 1830 1980 151 0.998 0.248 0.601 3.848 0.236 0.138 18 606092 1837 1980 144 0.996 0.301 3.323 23.791 0.252 0.261 19 606101 1893 1980 88 0.999 0.192 0.766 3.352 0.190 0.141 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 606102 1893 1980 88 0.999 0.197 0.258 2.983 0.200 0.248 21 606111 1844 1980 137 0.989 0.275 1.166 5.399 0.265 0.132 22 606112 1846 1980 135 0.996 0.265 1.231 5.969 0.238 0.286 23 606121 1836 1980 145 0.999 0.253 1.114 5.057 0.222 0.369 24 606122 1868 1980 113 0.995 0.220 0.179 2.563 0.227 0.157 25 606131 1828 1980 153 0.999 0.242 0.598 3.989 0.223 0.330 26 606132 1823 1980 158 1.000 0.224 0.892 4.930 0.213 0.219 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 126 0.998 0.235 0.857 5.569 0.224 0.218 STANDARD DEVIATION 26 0.002 0.039 0.823 4.672 0.027 0.120 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 128 0.998 0.235 0.600 3.835 0.229 0.232 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 39 0.002 0.049 0.962 3.265 0.047 0.138 MINIMUM VALUE 82 0.989 0.175 -0.004 2.563 0.178 -0.042 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 110 0.997 0.203 0.204 2.705 0.200 0.141 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 149 0.999 0.253 1.166 5.969 0.247 0.279 MAXIMUM VALUE 169 1.000 0.332 3.323 23.791 0.277 0.518 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.339 0.160 0.009 -0.122 3.393 -0.105 0.795 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.105 SERIES 606042 AND 606102 88 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.795 SERIES 606041 AND 606042 126 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 65.15 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 55. 171. 300. 300. RBAR 0.267 0.406 0.378 0.409 SDEV 0.205 0.167 0.210 0.194 SERR 0.028 0.013 0.012 0.011 EPS 0.868 0.941 0.940 0.947 NSS 18.0 23.1 25.9 25.8 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1812 1980 169 0.980 0.150 0.073 2.472 0.163 0.174 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.301 0.142 0.026 55 114 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.37 0.93 1.00 1.11 2.04 27.00 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.07 0.00 0.87 0.94 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.173 0.100 0.083 0.030 0.137 -0.031 0.015 -0.008 -0.064 -0.126 PACF 0.173 0.072 0.057 0.001 0.126 -0.082 0.013 -0.022 -0.058 -0.131 95% C.L. 0.154 0.158 0.160 0.161 0.161 0.164 0.164 0.164 0.164 0.165 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.035 0.174 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.155 0.123 0.074 0.022 0.111 -0.038 -0.041 -0.065 -0.051 -0.129 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.155 2 0.139 0.102 3 0.135 0.096 0.043 4 0.135 0.096 0.044 -0.007 5 0.136 0.092 0.034 -0.020 0.100 6 0.143 0.091 0.037 -0.014 0.110 -0.073 7 0.139 0.096 0.036 -0.012 0.114 -0.066 -0.050 8 0.136 0.092 0.042 -0.013 0.116 -0.061 -0.042 -0.055 9 0.135 0.092 0.041 -0.010 0.116 -0.060 -0.040 -0.053 -0.021 10 0.133 0.085 0.036 -0.017 0.130 -0.061 -0.035 -0.042 -0.004 -0.120 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1245.80 1243.71 1243.95 1245.64 1247.64 1247.94 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1249.03 1250.61 1252.09 1254.02 1253.56 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.155 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 2.39 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 102.45 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.155 0.024 0.004 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 606011 1 0.092 0.283 2 606012 1 0.040 0.178 3 606021 1 0.167 0.409 4 606022 1 0.271 0.519 5 606031 1 0.030 0.169 6 606032 1 0.012 0.093 7 606041 1 0.009 0.028 8 606042 1 0.034 0.160 9 606051 1 0.101 0.256 10 606052 1 0.002 -0.042 11 606061 1 0.133 0.274 12 606062 1 0.079 0.231 13 606071 1 0.056 0.235 14 606072 1 0.014 0.063 15 606081 1 0.107 0.318 16 606082 1 0.068 0.240 17 606091 1 0.058 0.140 18 606092 1 0.069 0.261 19 606101 1 0.026 0.151 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 606102 1 0.065 0.253 21 606111 1 0.067 0.132 22 606112 1 0.083 0.287 23 606121 1 0.165 0.371 24 606122 1 0.106 0.158 25 606131 1 0.110 0.331 26 606132 1 0.048 0.219 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.077 0.220 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.060 0.121 MEDIAN 1 0.067 0.233 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.072 0.132 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.002 -0.042 LOWER HINGE 1 0.034 0.151 UPPER HINGE 1 0.106 0.283 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.271 0.519 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 606011 1843 1980 138 1.000 0.218 0.584 3.627 0.244 -0.031 2 606012 1852 1980 129 1.000 0.231 0.286 2.984 0.271 -0.017 3 606021 1818 1980 163 1.000 0.276 1.003 4.794 0.297 -0.004 4 606022 1812 1980 169 1.000 0.284 1.612 10.024 0.294 -0.024 5 606031 1824 1980 157 1.000 0.212 -0.005 2.743 0.248 -0.007 6 606032 1832 1980 149 1.000 0.174 0.206 3.214 0.198 -0.005 7 606041 1853 1980 128 1.000 0.241 1.090 5.883 0.257 -0.002 8 606042 1855 1980 126 1.000 0.269 1.038 6.117 0.299 -0.014 9 606051 1893 1980 88 1.000 0.207 0.060 2.859 0.234 -0.047 10 606052 1899 1980 82 1.000 0.246 1.783 8.168 0.229 0.000 11 606061 1871 1980 110 1.000 0.189 0.299 2.654 0.219 -0.067 12 606062 1869 1980 112 1.000 0.181 0.084 3.484 0.210 -0.038 13 606071 1893 1980 88 1.000 0.198 2.220 13.763 0.198 -0.007 14 606072 1891 1980 90 1.000 0.180 0.244 2.691 0.191 -0.006 15 606081 1848 1961 114 1.000 0.229 0.025 2.867 0.268 -0.023 16 606082 1854 1980 127 1.000 0.229 0.025 2.478 0.282 -0.024 17 606091 1830 1980 151 1.000 0.246 0.553 4.070 0.254 -0.028 18 606092 1837 1980 144 1.000 0.290 3.362 25.748 0.295 0.008 19 606101 1893 1980 88 1.000 0.189 0.748 3.444 0.206 -0.001 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 606102 1893 1980 88 1.000 0.190 0.217 3.149 0.221 -0.011 21 606111 1844 1980 137 1.000 0.273 1.050 5.311 0.283 -0.029 22 606112 1846 1980 135 1.000 0.254 1.033 5.814 0.273 -0.006 23 606121 1836 1980 145 1.000 0.235 0.601 3.590 0.268 -0.064 24 606122 1868 1980 113 1.000 0.217 0.115 2.847 0.248 -0.045 25 606131 1828 1980 153 1.000 0.228 0.474 4.107 0.260 -0.007 26 606132 1823 1980 158 1.000 0.219 0.655 4.267 0.234 0.002 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 126 1.000 0.227 0.745 5.411 0.249 -0.019 STANDARD DEVIATION 26 0.000 0.034 0.790 4.893 0.033 0.020 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 128 1.000 0.228 0.569 3.609 0.251 -0.013 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 39 0.000 0.048 0.832 2.947 0.052 0.024 MINIMUM VALUE 82 1.000 0.174 -0.005 2.478 0.191 -0.067 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 110 1.000 0.198 0.206 2.867 0.221 -0.029 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 149 1.000 0.246 1.038 5.814 0.273 -0.005 MAXIMUM VALUE 169 1.000 0.290 3.362 25.748 0.299 0.008 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.350 0.150 0.008 -0.127 3.586 -0.087 0.801 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.087 SERIES 606091 AND 606102 88 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.801 SERIES 606041 AND 606042 126 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 65.15 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 55. 171. 300. 300. RBAR 0.271 0.397 0.395 0.416 SDEV 0.170 0.145 0.201 0.186 SERR 0.023 0.011 0.012 0.011 EPS 0.870 0.938 0.944 0.948 NSS 18.0 23.1 25.9 25.8 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1812 1980 169 0.988 0.147 -0.036 2.667 0.176 -0.054 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.264 0.139 0.027 58 111 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.21 0.84 1.00 1.08 1.91 20.15 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.07 0.00 0.87 0.94 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.054 0.039 0.039 -0.028 0.126 -0.046 0.040 -0.030 -0.047 -0.065 PACF -0.054 0.036 0.043 -0.025 0.121 -0.034 0.030 -0.035 -0.044 -0.089 95% C.L. 0.154 0.154 0.155 0.155 0.155 0.157 0.158 0.158 0.158 0.158 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.002 0.039 0.040 -0.019 0.123 -0.038 0.037 -0.030 -0.053 -0.073 PACF 0.002 0.039 0.040 -0.021 0.120 -0.039 0.030 -0.038 -0.047 -0.091 95% C.L. 0.154 0.154 0.154 0.154 0.154 0.157 0.157 0.157 0.157 0.158 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.001 0.002 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1812 1980 169 0.987 0.148 0.038 2.503 0.161 0.163 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.162 0.068 0.049 0.007 0.115 -0.016 0.028 -0.034 -0.071 -0.098 PACF 0.162 0.043 0.032 -0.008 0.115 -0.054 0.029 -0.050 -0.058 -0.095 95% C.L. 0.154 0.158 0.159 0.159 0.159 0.161 0.161 0.161 0.161 0.162 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.028 0.163 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.22 MINUTES