RUN: SWIT001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWIT122E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWIT122E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 606 1 Mittleri Hellelawald WIDTH_EARLY PCAB - 606 2 Switzerland Norway spruce 1510 4618-750 1793 1980 - 606 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 6 606232 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1849 1849 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 8 606242 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1878 1878 / 1924 1924 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 606211 1851 1980 130 1.260 0.719 2.465 10.309 0.172 0.881 2 606212 1840 1980 141 1.328 0.745 3.552 20.650 0.179 0.840 3 606221 1856 1980 125 1.029 0.480 2.484 12.657 0.180 0.730 4 606222 1856 1980 125 1.015 0.303 1.633 9.437 0.162 0.656 5 606231 1810 1980 171 0.823 0.351 0.996 3.415 0.155 0.886 6 606232 1810 1980 171 0.833 0.425 0.443 2.175 0.156 0.930 7 606241 1807 1980 174 0.788 0.341 0.987 4.169 0.182 0.827 8 606242 1814 1980 167 0.888 0.331 1.699 8.526 0.154 0.801 9 606251 1796 1980 185 0.797 0.264 0.904 4.618 0.160 0.816 10 606252 1818 1980 163 0.981 0.300 -0.001 2.329 0.149 0.823 11 606261 1793 1980 188 0.648 0.224 1.087 3.623 0.179 0.814 12 606262 1798 1980 183 0.961 0.334 0.825 3.157 0.151 0.843 13 606271 1839 1980 142 0.890 0.249 0.666 3.565 0.138 0.767 14 606272 1840 1980 141 0.936 0.274 0.657 2.820 0.140 0.774 15 606281 1848 1980 133 0.931 0.383 1.043 3.993 0.172 0.833 16 606282 1836 1980 145 0.878 0.380 1.432 5.274 0.176 0.859 17 606291 1846 1980 135 0.957 0.365 1.235 4.591 0.151 0.855 18 606292 1846 1980 135 0.813 0.181 0.057 3.615 0.159 0.647 19 606301 1811 1980 170 0.688 0.259 -0.470 2.565 0.161 0.876 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 606302 1811 1980 170 0.634 0.236 -0.380 2.995 0.180 0.833 21 606311 1870 1980 111 1.366 0.655 1.637 4.669 0.175 0.865 22 606312 1868 1980 113 1.448 0.589 1.153 3.463 0.172 0.784 23 606321 1812 1980 169 0.830 0.374 2.420 10.376 0.189 0.782 24 606322 1817 1980 164 0.745 0.355 2.588 10.265 0.175 0.828 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 24 FROM 1793 TO 1980 188 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 152 0.936 0.380 1.213 5.969 0.165 0.815 STANDARD DEVIATION 23 0.218 0.153 0.987 4.394 0.014 0.067 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 154 0.889 0.346 1.065 4.081 0.167 0.827 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 36 0.193 0.135 1.006 5.695 0.022 0.074 MINIMUM VALUE 111 0.634 0.181 -0.470 2.175 0.138 0.647 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 134 0.805 0.269 0.662 3.286 0.155 0.783 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 170 0.998 0.404 1.668 8.982 0.177 0.857 MAXIMUM VALUE 188 1.448 0.745 3.552 20.650 0.189 0.930 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.221 0.324 0.019 -0.177 2.445 -0.583 0.899 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.583 SERIES 606231 AND 606291 135 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.899 SERIES 606231 AND 606232 171 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 73.75 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 66. 171. 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.300 0.236 0.357 0.312 0.254 SDEV 0.442 0.362 0.280 0.260 0.271 SERR 0.054 0.028 0.017 0.016 0.016 EPS 0.885 0.877 0.930 0.916 0.891 NSS 18.1 23.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1793 1980 188 0.837 0.172 0.226 2.934 0.119 0.718 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.566 0.430 -0.040 84 104 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.43 0.97 1.00 1.10 2.07 8.24 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.10 0.00 0.87 0.97 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 154. 36. 111. 134. 170. 188. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.714 0.590 0.595 0.520 0.459 0.469 0.418 0.413 0.390 0.296 PACF 0.714 0.164 0.264 -0.004 0.027 0.110 -0.028 0.102 -0.024 -0.124 95% C.L. 0.146 0.207 0.240 0.270 0.291 0.306 0.320 0.332 0.343 0.352 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.561 0.559 0.012 0.255 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 606211 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01044302 1.94355631 2 606212 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00827792 1.91581762 3 606221 1 1.84209955 0.05863813 0.00000000 0.78478289 4 606222 1 0.95467663 0.06561779 0.00000000 0.90253711 5 606231 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00330439 1.10756934 6 606232 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00556577 1.31383836 7 606241 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00255113 0.56441963 8 606242 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00273440 0.65786093 9 606251 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00103385 0.70066273 10 606252 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00048165 1.02090657 11 606261 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00063664 0.70803446 12 606262 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00257398 1.19828141 13 606271 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00347777 1.13823795 14 606272 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00420151 1.23476088 15 606281 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00030442 0.95152426 16 606282 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00005712 0.87348562 17 606291 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00621871 0.53453511 18 606292 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00059609 0.77220672 19 606301 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00372260 0.36971807 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 606302 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00368257 0.31919876 21 606311 1 2.65786266 0.07177618 0.00000000 1.04447341 22 606312 1 1.90599751 0.03219754 0.00000000 0.94578952 23 606321 1 1.71783960 0.06471110 0.00000000 0.67801315 24 606322 1 1.78046274 0.07506117 0.00000000 0.60597163 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 606211 1851 1980 130 1.001 0.414 2.210 9.253 0.171 0.791 2 606212 1840 1980 141 1.001 0.448 3.622 22.636 0.178 0.782 3 606221 1856 1980 125 1.000 0.237 0.026 2.834 0.177 0.517 4 606222 1856 1980 125 1.000 0.218 -0.046 2.703 0.159 0.554 5 606231 1810 1980 171 0.995 0.348 0.776 2.967 0.155 0.843 6 606232 1810 1980 171 0.984 0.363 0.704 2.759 0.158 0.852 7 606241 1807 1980 174 1.004 0.401 0.740 3.364 0.181 0.774 8 606242 1814 1980 167 1.001 0.329 1.127 4.910 0.153 0.784 9 606251 1796 1980 185 0.999 0.327 1.060 5.062 0.159 0.810 10 606252 1818 1980 163 1.000 0.302 -0.077 2.352 0.148 0.812 11 606261 1793 1980 188 1.000 0.338 0.983 3.394 0.178 0.798 12 606262 1798 1980 183 1.000 0.318 0.857 3.212 0.150 0.805 13 606271 1839 1980 142 0.999 0.229 1.126 5.418 0.137 0.669 14 606272 1840 1980 141 0.999 0.216 0.485 3.086 0.139 0.616 15 606281 1848 1980 133 1.000 0.408 0.988 3.914 0.171 0.826 16 606282 1836 1980 145 1.000 0.433 1.441 5.298 0.175 0.853 17 606291 1846 1980 135 1.000 0.261 0.987 4.047 0.150 0.692 18 606292 1846 1980 135 1.000 0.224 0.246 3.751 0.158 0.642 19 606301 1811 1980 170 0.989 0.300 0.071 3.256 0.159 0.797 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 606302 1811 1980 170 0.994 0.278 -0.320 4.106 0.179 0.671 21 606311 1870 1980 111 1.000 0.266 1.199 4.596 0.172 0.639 22 606312 1868 1980 113 1.000 0.222 0.312 3.398 0.171 0.510 23 606321 1812 1980 169 1.000 0.223 -0.026 3.324 0.187 0.489 24 606322 1817 1980 164 1.000 0.217 0.593 3.529 0.174 0.508 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 152 0.999 0.305 0.795 4.715 0.164 0.710 STANDARD DEVIATION 23 0.004 0.076 0.838 4.069 0.014 0.124 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 154 1.000 0.301 0.758 3.464 0.165 0.778 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 36 0.001 0.129 0.935 1.603 0.022 0.181 MINIMUM VALUE 111 0.984 0.216 -0.320 2.352 0.137 0.489 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 134 0.999 0.226 0.159 3.149 0.154 0.627 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 170 1.000 0.356 1.093 4.753 0.176 0.808 MAXIMUM VALUE 188 1.004 0.448 3.622 22.636 0.187 0.853 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 606211 -67 87 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 606212 -67 94 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 606221 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 606222 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 606231 -67 114 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 606232 -67 114 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 606241 -67 116 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 606242 -67 111 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 606251 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 606252 -67 109 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 606261 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 606262 -67 122 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 606271 -67 95 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 606272 -67 94 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 606281 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 606282 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 606291 -67 90 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 606292 -67 90 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 606301 -67 113 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 606302 -67 113 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 606311 -67 74 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 606312 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 606321 -67 113 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 606322 -67 109 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 606211 1851 1980 130 0.990 0.343 1.881 7.703 0.170 0.728 2 606212 1840 1980 141 0.994 0.398 3.132 19.671 0.177 0.747 3 606221 1856 1980 125 0.999 0.232 0.071 2.950 0.177 0.498 4 606222 1856 1980 125 0.999 0.208 -0.020 3.005 0.159 0.517 5 606231 1810 1980 171 0.992 0.263 0.705 3.934 0.155 0.683 6 606232 1810 1980 171 0.989 0.257 0.128 2.798 0.158 0.689 7 606241 1807 1980 174 0.986 0.319 0.542 3.437 0.181 0.701 8 606242 1814 1980 167 0.992 0.260 0.529 3.084 0.153 0.705 9 606251 1796 1980 185 0.995 0.263 0.740 3.811 0.159 0.705 10 606252 1818 1980 163 0.990 0.219 0.000 2.712 0.147 0.659 11 606261 1793 1980 188 0.995 0.282 0.590 2.894 0.178 0.701 12 606262 1798 1980 183 0.993 0.276 0.758 3.105 0.150 0.747 13 606271 1839 1980 142 0.998 0.209 0.939 5.071 0.137 0.610 14 606272 1840 1980 141 0.998 0.198 0.216 3.055 0.139 0.563 15 606281 1848 1980 133 0.990 0.355 0.763 3.414 0.170 0.773 16 606282 1836 1980 145 0.993 0.335 0.840 3.993 0.175 0.777 17 606291 1846 1980 135 0.994 0.227 0.813 3.616 0.150 0.611 18 606292 1846 1980 135 0.996 0.195 0.215 3.659 0.157 0.533 19 606301 1811 1980 170 0.995 0.246 0.330 4.443 0.160 0.632 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 606302 1811 1980 170 0.997 0.260 -0.473 4.263 0.179 0.588 21 606311 1870 1980 111 0.997 0.245 1.068 4.466 0.172 0.577 22 606312 1868 1980 113 0.998 0.197 -0.110 2.886 0.171 0.389 23 606321 1812 1980 169 0.999 0.213 -0.112 3.297 0.187 0.432 24 606322 1817 1980 164 0.999 0.211 0.525 3.339 0.174 0.478 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 152 0.995 0.259 0.586 4.359 0.164 0.627 STANDARD DEVIATION 23 0.004 0.055 0.733 3.426 0.014 0.110 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 154 0.995 0.251 0.536 3.426 0.165 0.646 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 36 0.006 0.067 0.688 1.098 0.022 0.157 MINIMUM VALUE 111 0.986 0.195 -0.473 2.712 0.137 0.389 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 134 0.992 0.212 0.099 3.030 0.154 0.548 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 170 0.998 0.279 0.788 4.128 0.176 0.705 MAXIMUM VALUE 188 0.999 0.398 3.132 19.671 0.187 0.777 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.313 0.194 0.012 0.121 2.818 -0.156 0.876 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.156 SERIES 606231 AND 606281 133 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.876 SERIES 606281 AND 606282 133 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 73.75 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 66. 171. 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.386 0.302 0.368 0.337 0.310 SDEV 0.287 0.320 0.219 0.222 0.230 SERR 0.035 0.024 0.013 0.013 0.014 EPS 0.919 0.908 0.933 0.924 0.915 NSS 18.1 23.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1793 1980 188 0.989 0.170 0.393 3.542 0.127 0.548 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.312 0.142 0.057 50 138 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.16 0.42 1.00 1.06 1.48 4.14 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.07 0.00 0.87 0.93 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.545 0.340 0.308 0.189 0.128 0.150 0.062 0.085 0.038 -0.107 PACF 0.545 0.061 0.143 -0.057 0.012 0.071 -0.080 0.084 -0.081 -0.159 95% C.L. 0.146 0.184 0.197 0.207 0.211 0.212 0.215 0.215 0.216 0.216 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.301 0.546 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.541 0.332 0.270 0.155 0.090 0.117 0.065 0.135 0.100 -0.065 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.541 2 0.510 0.056 3 0.505 0.005 0.099 4 0.510 0.006 0.126 -0.053 5 0.510 0.006 0.126 -0.050 -0.006 6 0.510 0.010 0.116 -0.051 -0.046 0.080 7 0.513 0.009 0.114 -0.046 -0.046 0.100 -0.040 8 0.519 -0.006 0.121 -0.040 -0.062 0.099 -0.112 0.142 9 0.527 -0.012 0.126 -0.043 -0.064 0.105 -0.113 0.170 -0.054 10 0.517 0.020 0.105 -0.023 -0.076 0.097 -0.089 0.168 0.045 -0.188 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1417.63 1354.57 1355.97 1356.10 1357.57 1359.57 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1360.37 1362.08 1360.25 1361.70 1356.93 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.541 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 29.25 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 141.35 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.541 0.293 0.158 0.086 0.046 0.025 0.014 0.007 0.004 0.0021 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 606211 1 0.543 0.737 2 606212 1 0.562 0.750 3 606221 1 0.261 0.510 4 606222 1 0.282 0.530 5 606231 1 0.500 0.697 6 606232 1 0.485 0.689 7 606241 1 0.516 0.715 8 606242 1 0.548 0.736 9 606251 1 0.502 0.708 10 606252 1 0.453 0.663 11 606261 1 0.506 0.702 12 606262 1 0.589 0.751 13 606271 1 0.383 0.614 14 606272 1 0.326 0.567 15 606281 1 0.630 0.789 16 606282 1 0.606 0.777 17 606291 1 0.388 0.617 18 606292 1 0.289 0.535 19 606301 1 0.455 0.661 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 606302 1 0.412 0.599 21 606311 1 0.351 0.586 22 606312 1 0.155 0.390 23 606321 1 0.190 0.436 24 606322 1 0.232 0.480 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.424 0.635 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.137 0.111 MEDIAN 1 0.454 0.662 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.222 0.175 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.155 0.390 LOWER HINGE 1 0.307 0.551 UPPER HINGE 1 0.529 0.725 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.630 0.789 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 606211 1851 1980 130 1.000 0.231 1.382 8.117 0.244 -0.007 2 606212 1840 1980 141 1.000 0.262 1.732 14.426 0.258 0.013 3 606221 1856 1980 125 1.000 0.199 -0.144 3.717 0.218 -0.007 4 606222 1856 1980 125 1.000 0.175 -0.170 3.608 0.196 -0.027 5 606231 1810 1980 171 1.000 0.187 -0.083 3.858 0.213 -0.125 6 606232 1810 1980 171 1.000 0.186 0.177 3.645 0.211 -0.090 7 606241 1807 1980 174 1.000 0.221 0.311 4.547 0.246 -0.081 8 606242 1814 1980 167 1.000 0.175 -0.033 3.580 0.205 -0.070 9 606251 1796 1980 185 1.000 0.186 0.329 3.915 0.208 -0.032 10 606252 1818 1980 163 1.000 0.164 0.368 3.149 0.199 -0.107 11 606261 1793 1980 188 1.000 0.201 0.096 2.792 0.241 -0.116 12 606262 1798 1980 183 1.000 0.182 0.458 3.570 0.223 -0.182 13 606271 1839 1980 142 1.000 0.164 0.868 5.916 0.174 0.056 14 606272 1840 1980 141 1.000 0.163 -0.476 5.305 0.173 0.040 15 606281 1848 1980 133 1.000 0.215 0.366 4.032 0.249 -0.126 16 606282 1836 1980 145 1.000 0.211 0.084 3.527 0.240 -0.061 17 606291 1846 1980 135 1.000 0.178 0.565 3.914 0.209 -0.062 18 606292 1846 1980 135 1.000 0.165 0.127 3.238 0.193 -0.037 19 606301 1811 1980 170 1.000 0.181 0.022 4.046 0.213 -0.149 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 606302 1811 1980 170 1.000 0.207 -0.170 4.340 0.236 -0.181 21 606311 1870 1980 111 1.000 0.198 0.955 6.079 0.210 0.068 22 606312 1868 1980 113 1.000 0.181 -0.141 3.293 0.202 0.023 23 606321 1812 1980 169 1.000 0.192 -0.141 3.318 0.224 -0.002 24 606322 1817 1980 164 1.000 0.185 0.284 3.462 0.217 -0.023 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 152 1.000 0.192 0.282 4.558 0.217 -0.053 STANDARD DEVIATION 23 0.000 0.024 0.518 2.407 0.022 0.071 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 154 1.000 0.186 0.152 3.787 0.213 -0.049 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 36 0.000 0.027 0.525 0.949 0.034 0.107 MINIMUM VALUE 111 1.000 0.163 -0.476 2.792 0.173 -0.182 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 134 1.000 0.177 -0.112 3.495 0.204 -0.111 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 170 1.000 0.204 0.413 4.444 0.238 -0.004 MAXIMUM VALUE 188 1.000 0.262 1.732 14.426 0.258 0.068 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.421 0.108 0.006 0.576 4.423 0.096 0.810 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.096 SERIES 606241 AND 606271 142 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.810 SERIES 606221 AND 606222 125 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 73.75 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 66. 171. 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.372 0.404 0.461 0.465 0.436 SDEV 0.200 0.174 0.131 0.128 0.131 SERR 0.025 0.013 0.008 0.008 0.008 EPS 0.915 0.940 0.954 0.954 0.949 NSS 18.1 23.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1793 1980 188 0.998 0.133 -0.079 4.048 0.159 -0.096 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.112 0.050 0.087 68 120 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.19 0.43 1.00 1.07 1.50 6.84 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.10 0.00 0.87 0.97 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.095 -0.069 0.086 -0.010 -0.047 0.145 -0.113 0.060 0.088 -0.099 PACF -0.095 -0.079 0.072 0.000 -0.038 0.133 -0.096 0.069 0.068 -0.069 95% C.L. 0.146 0.147 0.148 0.149 0.149 0.149 0.152 0.154 0.154 0.156 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.008 -0.071 0.080 -0.007 -0.035 0.132 -0.096 0.058 0.086 -0.102 PACF -0.008 -0.071 0.079 -0.011 -0.024 0.126 -0.101 0.085 0.053 -0.084 95% C.L. 0.146 0.146 0.147 0.148 0.148 0.148 0.150 0.152 0.152 0.153 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.005 -0.008 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1793 1980 188 0.998 0.156 0.365 3.807 0.118 0.527 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.525 0.263 0.199 0.108 0.072 0.112 0.018 0.052 0.031 -0.091 PACF 0.525 -0.017 0.094 -0.042 0.027 0.081 -0.108 0.101 -0.059 -0.124 95% C.L. 0.146 0.182 0.190 0.194 0.195 0.196 0.197 0.197 0.197 0.198 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.276 0.525 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.26 MINUTES