RUN: SWIT001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWIT123E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWIT123E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 607 1 Bźrchen Bielwald WIDTH_EARLY ABAL - 607 2 Switzerland silver fir, European fir 1740 4617-750 1708 1980 - 607 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 607011 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1911 1911 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 607021 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1932 1932 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 607031 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1867 1867 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 607011 1713 1980 268 0.563 0.294 -0.008 1.840 0.211 0.905 2 607012 1733 1980 248 0.623 0.324 -0.046 1.824 0.214 0.911 3 607021 1708 1980 273 0.712 0.290 0.554 2.982 0.168 0.859 4 607022 1737 1980 244 0.780 0.373 0.342 2.131 0.191 0.861 5 607031 1861 1980 120 1.141 0.373 0.415 2.289 0.149 0.843 6 607032 1822 1980 159 1.246 0.491 0.761 2.745 0.162 0.868 7 607041 1865 1980 116 0.973 0.349 0.753 2.945 0.220 0.716 8 607042 1865 1980 116 1.111 0.384 0.387 2.694 0.201 0.697 9 607051 1890 1980 91 1.254 0.345 0.159 2.961 0.179 0.713 10 607052 1905 1980 76 1.482 0.386 0.290 2.558 0.173 0.673 11 607061 1804 1980 177 1.341 0.302 0.543 3.920 0.137 0.711 12 607062 1791 1980 190 1.264 0.364 0.461 2.961 0.170 0.694 13 607071 1860 1980 121 1.093 0.233 0.696 3.549 0.176 0.407 14 607072 1856 1980 125 1.246 0.303 1.020 6.936 0.171 0.505 15 607081 1867 1980 114 1.114 0.333 1.450 6.063 0.167 0.645 16 607082 1891 1980 90 1.366 0.381 0.555 2.744 0.139 0.799 17 607091 1852 1980 129 0.800 0.230 0.604 5.255 0.176 0.613 18 607092 1826 1980 155 0.675 0.433 1.681 6.526 0.184 0.874 19 607101 1885 1980 96 1.259 0.233 0.549 3.216 0.146 0.550 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 607102 1879 1980 102 1.222 0.307 0.822 3.884 0.177 0.646 21 607111 1889 1980 92 1.148 0.271 0.182 2.652 0.150 0.657 22 607112 1899 1980 82 1.177 0.236 0.185 2.625 0.150 0.599 23 607131 1880 1980 101 0.932 0.376 -0.044 2.007 0.172 0.857 24 607132 1898 1980 83 1.280 0.363 -0.173 2.330 0.140 0.798 25 607141 1869 1980 112 1.011 0.299 1.054 4.519 0.153 0.741 26 607142 1869 1980 112 0.971 0.267 0.502 3.248 0.160 0.674 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 26 FROM 1708 TO 1980 273 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 138 1.069 0.328 0.527 3.362 0.171 0.724 STANDARD DEVIATION 59 0.248 0.065 0.441 1.406 0.023 0.130 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 116 1.128 0.329 0.522 2.953 0.171 0.712 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 63 0.322 0.083 0.569 1.326 0.029 0.211 MINIMUM VALUE 76 0.563 0.230 -0.173 1.824 0.137 0.407 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 96 0.932 0.290 0.185 2.558 0.150 0.646 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 159 1.254 0.373 0.753 3.884 0.179 0.857 MAXIMUM VALUE 272 1.482 0.491 1.681 6.936 0.220 0.911 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.206 0.292 0.016 -0.181 2.568 -0.659 0.934 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.659 SERIES 607092 AND 607131 101 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.934 SERIES 607031 AND 607032 120 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 39.13 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 3. 6. 6. 15. 28. 55. 190. 325. RBAR 0.539 0.457 0.590 0.238 0.185 0.332 0.251 0.205 SDEV 0.279 0.168 0.225 0.380 0.318 0.245 0.256 0.348 SERR 0.161 0.069 0.092 0.098 0.060 0.033 0.019 0.019 EPS 0.822 0.791 0.895 0.706 0.735 0.908 0.893 0.870 NSS 4.0 4.5 5.9 7.7 12.2 19.8 24.8 26.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1708 1980 273 0.805 0.345 -0.332 1.927 0.163 0.908 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.669 0.353 0.010 56 217 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.12 0.83 1.00 1.06 1.90 56.91 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.95 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 116. 63. 76. 96. 159. 273. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.905 0.901 0.896 0.864 0.857 0.841 0.827 0.818 0.811 0.798 PACF 0.905 0.452 0.277 -0.015 0.047 0.013 0.032 0.031 0.065 0.008 95% C.L. 0.121 0.197 0.250 0.293 0.328 0.360 0.387 0.412 0.436 0.457 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.867 0.372 0.316 0.274 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 607011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00214143 0.27649727 2 607012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00334708 0.20595044 3 607021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00176041 0.47353083 4 607022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00258087 0.46376139 5 607031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00305842 1.32344735 6 607032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00112742 1.33572805 7 607041 1 0.81233191 0.02662116 0.00000000 0.72528875 8 607042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00808876 1.58414090 9 607051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00031295 1.26846159 10 607052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01408079 2.02382112 11 607061 1 0.68652380 0.08384134 0.00000000 1.29627287 12 607062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00274127 1.52589643 13 607071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00106869 1.15849590 14 607072 1 0.82439125 0.00605345 0.00000000 0.66958499 15 607081 1 1.68504369 0.28561759 0.00000000 1.06958628 16 607082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00366136 1.53236949 17 607091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00310482 1.00150311 18 607092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00720850 1.23768246 19 607101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00198311 1.16288161 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 607102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00572165 0.92709959 21 607111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00546784 0.89378881 22 607112 1 0.65638483 0.17614116 0.00000000 1.13539159 23 607131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00674677 0.58779603 24 607132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00190294 1.35980308 25 607141 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00388471 1.23028958 26 607142 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00367543 1.17864382 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 607011 1713 1980 268 1.022 0.625 2.046 8.957 0.210 0.900 2 607012 1733 1980 248 1.025 0.589 3.024 16.836 0.214 0.796 3 607021 1708 1980 273 0.999 0.376 1.127 5.037 0.168 0.800 4 607022 1737 1980 244 1.004 0.506 1.820 7.632 0.191 0.788 5 607031 1861 1980 120 0.998 0.309 0.453 2.246 0.149 0.825 6 607032 1822 1980 159 1.000 0.396 0.853 2.875 0.161 0.867 7 607041 1865 1980 116 1.000 0.302 0.976 3.556 0.218 0.640 8 607042 1865 1980 116 0.998 0.243 0.585 3.041 0.199 0.479 9 607051 1890 1980 91 1.000 0.274 0.138 2.980 0.177 0.705 10 607052 1905 1980 76 1.001 0.157 -0.291 3.260 0.169 0.144 11 607061 1804 1980 177 1.000 0.207 0.115 2.754 0.136 0.668 12 607062 1791 1980 190 0.999 0.250 0.011 2.876 0.169 0.618 13 607071 1860 1980 121 1.000 0.207 0.490 3.379 0.174 0.385 14 607072 1856 1980 125 1.000 0.217 0.508 4.535 0.169 0.462 15 607081 1867 1980 114 1.000 0.259 1.056 4.522 0.164 0.662 16 607082 1891 1980 90 0.999 0.266 0.535 2.917 0.137 0.777 17 607091 1852 1980 129 0.998 0.247 0.515 3.431 0.175 0.556 18 607092 1826 1980 155 1.035 0.399 1.590 6.429 0.183 0.756 19 607101 1885 1980 96 1.000 0.178 0.477 3.468 0.145 0.498 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 607102 1879 1980 102 1.000 0.207 0.694 3.448 0.176 0.470 21 607111 1889 1980 92 0.999 0.195 0.047 2.465 0.148 0.511 22 607112 1899 1980 82 1.000 0.185 0.329 3.176 0.147 0.518 23 607131 1880 1980 101 0.993 0.335 -0.078 2.531 0.170 0.734 24 607132 1898 1980 83 1.000 0.286 -0.014 2.216 0.139 0.797 25 607141 1869 1980 112 0.999 0.258 1.042 5.462 0.152 0.701 26 607142 1869 1980 112 0.999 0.236 0.352 3.843 0.159 0.603 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 138 1.003 0.296 0.708 4.380 0.169 0.641 STANDARD DEVIATION 59 0.010 0.121 0.747 3.028 0.023 0.174 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 116 1.000 0.258 0.512 3.405 0.169 0.665 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 63 0.001 0.128 0.905 1.659 0.028 0.276 MINIMUM VALUE 76 0.993 0.157 -0.291 2.216 0.136 0.144 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 96 0.999 0.207 0.138 2.876 0.149 0.511 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 159 1.000 0.335 1.042 4.535 0.177 0.788 MAXIMUM VALUE 273 1.035 0.625 3.024 16.836 0.218 0.900 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 607011 -67 179 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 607012 -67 166 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 607021 -67 182 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 607022 -67 163 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 607031 -67 80 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 607032 -67 106 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 607041 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 607042 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 607051 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 607052 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 607061 -67 118 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 607062 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 607071 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 607072 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 607081 -67 76 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 607082 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 607091 -67 86 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 607092 -67 103 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 607101 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 607102 -67 68 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 607111 -67 61 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 607112 -67 54 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 607131 -67 67 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 607132 -67 55 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 607141 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 607142 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 607011 1713 1980 268 0.963 0.295 0.054 3.613 0.210 0.656 2 607012 1733 1980 248 0.972 0.359 0.831 4.575 0.213 0.733 3 607021 1708 1980 273 0.987 0.312 1.449 6.831 0.168 0.729 4 607022 1737 1980 244 0.977 0.405 1.350 5.498 0.191 0.752 5 607031 1861 1980 120 0.997 0.157 0.244 3.475 0.150 0.338 6 607032 1822 1980 159 0.987 0.233 0.797 3.622 0.162 0.619 7 607041 1865 1980 116 0.994 0.235 0.338 2.630 0.218 0.429 8 607042 1865 1980 116 0.997 0.210 0.245 2.640 0.198 0.329 9 607051 1890 1980 91 0.995 0.203 -0.514 3.985 0.177 0.439 10 607052 1905 1980 76 0.999 0.150 -0.493 3.026 0.169 0.094 11 607061 1804 1980 177 0.998 0.193 0.365 2.995 0.136 0.616 12 607062 1791 1980 190 0.998 0.220 -0.059 3.090 0.169 0.531 13 607071 1860 1980 121 0.999 0.194 0.482 3.406 0.174 0.335 14 607072 1856 1980 125 0.999 0.207 0.246 3.962 0.169 0.430 15 607081 1867 1980 114 0.996 0.194 0.492 3.645 0.162 0.434 16 607082 1891 1980 90 0.997 0.173 -0.432 3.292 0.137 0.528 17 607091 1852 1980 129 0.997 0.205 0.901 5.929 0.174 0.336 18 607092 1826 1980 155 0.993 0.323 1.251 5.313 0.183 0.720 19 607101 1885 1980 96 0.999 0.165 0.280 3.115 0.144 0.429 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 607102 1879 1980 102 0.998 0.188 0.523 3.436 0.175 0.376 21 607111 1889 1980 92 0.998 0.173 -0.129 2.663 0.147 0.398 22 607112 1899 1980 82 0.998 0.162 -0.110 2.636 0.145 0.401 23 607131 1880 1980 101 0.983 0.229 0.880 5.765 0.168 0.454 24 607132 1898 1980 83 0.994 0.162 0.653 3.241 0.137 0.445 25 607141 1869 1980 112 0.996 0.216 0.789 5.427 0.152 0.577 26 607142 1869 1980 112 0.999 0.209 0.451 4.184 0.159 0.498 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 138 0.993 0.222 0.419 3.923 0.169 0.486 STANDARD DEVIATION 59 0.009 0.065 0.532 1.174 0.023 0.156 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 116 0.997 0.206 0.408 3.544 0.168 0.442 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 63 0.005 0.060 0.743 1.485 0.027 0.218 MINIMUM VALUE 76 0.963 0.150 -0.514 2.630 0.136 0.094 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 96 0.993 0.173 0.054 3.090 0.150 0.398 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 159 0.998 0.233 0.797 4.575 0.177 0.616 MAXIMUM VALUE 273 0.999 0.405 1.449 6.831 0.218 0.752 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.237 0.168 0.009 -0.058 3.859 -0.375 0.749 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.375 SERIES 607092 AND 607131 101 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.749 SERIES 607111 AND 607112 82 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 39.13 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 3. 6. 6. 15. 28. 55. 190. 325. RBAR 0.430 0.405 0.406 0.306 0.232 0.319 0.293 0.271 SDEV 0.122 0.174 0.333 0.288 0.340 0.239 0.239 0.241 SERR 0.071 0.071 0.136 0.074 0.064 0.032 0.017 0.013 EPS 0.749 0.754 0.802 0.772 0.787 0.902 0.911 0.906 NSS 4.0 4.5 5.9 7.7 12.2 19.8 24.8 26.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1708 1980 273 0.969 0.225 0.210 3.628 0.171 0.603 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.318 0.181 0.039 52 221 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.21 0.43 1.01 1.08 1.52 8.78 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.93 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.601 0.620 0.583 0.475 0.446 0.397 0.346 0.313 0.297 0.261 PACF 0.601 0.405 0.220 -0.032 -0.006 0.003 -0.006 -0.003 0.039 0.008 95% C.L. 0.121 0.159 0.191 0.216 0.230 0.243 0.252 0.259 0.264 0.269 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.497 0.262 0.324 0.233 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.286 0.354 0.362 0.143 0.170 0.098 0.005 -0.008 0.019 0.018 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.286 2 0.201 0.296 3 0.128 0.246 0.247 4 0.147 0.266 0.257 -0.078 5 0.146 0.271 0.262 -0.075 -0.020 6 0.145 0.268 0.271 -0.065 -0.015 -0.037 7 0.143 0.267 0.267 -0.046 0.004 -0.026 -0.070 8 0.138 0.265 0.267 -0.048 0.020 -0.011 -0.062 -0.059 9 0.142 0.269 0.268 -0.050 0.022 -0.025 -0.076 -0.066 0.052 10 0.138 0.273 0.273 -0.048 0.021 -0.021 -0.095 -0.086 0.042 0.073 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1881.00 1859.73 1836.70 1821.57 1821.92 1823.81 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1825.44 1826.10 1827.15 1828.40 1828.94 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 3 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.128 0.246 0.247 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 21.31 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 127.08 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 3) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.128 0.263 0.312 0.136 0.159 0.131 0.090 0.083 0.065 0.0509 0.043 0.034 0.028 0.023 0.018 0.015 0.012 0.010 0.008 0.0063 0.005 0.004 0.003 0.003 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.0008 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 607011 3 0.508 0.395 0.253 0.158 2 607012 3 0.665 0.362 0.358 0.166 3 607021 3 0.583 0.484 0.291 0.050 4 607022 3 0.679 0.424 0.436 0.013 5 607031 3 0.273 0.197 0.175 0.256 6 607032 3 0.467 0.465 0.131 0.163 7 607041 3 0.203 0.362 0.115 0.059 8 607042 3 0.170 0.227 0.203 0.113 9 607051 3 0.211 0.454 0.027 -0.040 10 607052 3 0.028 0.076 0.098 0.083 11 607061 3 0.456 0.385 0.233 0.157 12 607062 3 0.305 0.460 0.100 0.053 13 607071 3 0.301 0.195 0.237 0.171 14 607072 3 0.324 0.284 0.159 0.242 15 607081 3 0.218 0.364 0.088 0.110 16 607082 3 0.342 0.414 0.303 -0.088 17 607091 3 0.208 0.275 0.113 0.186 18 607092 3 0.598 0.594 0.271 -0.092 19 607101 3 0.237 0.345 0.150 0.078 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 607102 3 0.173 0.322 0.127 0.028 21 607111 3 0.236 0.322 0.219 -0.008 22 607112 3 0.310 0.214 0.261 0.214 23 607131 3 0.308 0.392 0.179 0.054 24 607132 3 0.286 0.364 0.301 -0.086 25 607141 3 0.346 0.529 0.139 -0.076 26 607142 3 0.273 0.466 0.093 -0.032 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 3 0.335 0.360 0.195 0.074 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.163 0.117 0.096 0.105 MEDIAN 3 0.303 0.364 0.177 0.069 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.238 0.169 0.146 0.171 MINIMUM VALUE 3 0.028 0.076 0.027 -0.092 LOWER HINGE 3 0.218 0.284 0.115 -0.008 UPPER HINGE 3 0.456 0.454 0.261 0.163 MAXIMUM VALUE 3 0.679 0.594 0.436 0.256 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 607011 1713 1980 268 1.000 0.207 0.208 4.289 0.225 0.002 2 607012 1733 1980 248 1.000 0.204 0.207 4.422 0.233 -0.030 3 607021 1708 1980 273 1.000 0.202 1.220 8.962 0.203 -0.004 4 607022 1737 1980 244 1.000 0.227 0.490 9.214 0.226 -0.026 5 607031 1861 1980 120 1.000 0.138 0.389 3.744 0.155 0.066 6 607032 1822 1980 159 1.000 0.173 0.576 3.507 0.187 0.039 7 607041 1865 1980 116 1.000 0.210 0.034 2.528 0.248 -0.001 8 607042 1865 1980 116 1.000 0.191 0.209 2.882 0.219 -0.009 9 607051 1890 1980 91 1.000 0.179 -0.195 3.437 0.207 -0.019 10 607052 1905 1980 76 1.000 0.148 -0.407 2.928 0.173 0.002 11 607061 1804 1980 177 1.000 0.143 0.558 3.379 0.158 0.011 12 607062 1791 1980 190 1.000 0.184 -0.207 4.293 0.203 0.008 13 607071 1860 1980 121 1.000 0.173 0.196 3.635 0.185 0.058 14 607072 1856 1980 125 1.000 0.172 0.426 3.831 0.182 0.026 15 607081 1867 1980 114 1.000 0.173 0.578 3.467 0.186 0.008 16 607082 1891 1980 90 1.000 0.140 -0.251 2.937 0.162 -0.002 17 607091 1852 1980 129 1.000 0.182 0.877 5.186 0.191 -0.008 18 607092 1826 1980 155 1.000 0.213 0.823 5.567 0.227 -0.020 19 607101 1885 1980 96 1.000 0.146 0.164 3.185 0.166 0.008 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 607102 1879 1980 102 1.000 0.173 0.432 3.511 0.200 0.004 21 607111 1889 1980 92 1.000 0.154 -0.007 2.910 0.173 -0.006 22 607112 1899 1980 82 1.000 0.136 -0.308 2.396 0.158 0.044 23 607131 1880 1980 101 1.000 0.188 0.325 4.438 0.206 -0.050 24 607132 1898 1980 83 1.000 0.135 0.490 2.690 0.159 -0.030 25 607141 1869 1980 112 1.000 0.174 0.834 5.025 0.187 -0.003 26 607142 1869 1980 112 1.000 0.180 0.488 5.200 0.197 -0.009 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 138 1.000 0.175 0.313 4.137 0.193 0.002 STANDARD DEVIATION 59 0.000 0.026 0.400 1.694 0.026 0.027 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 116 1.000 0.174 0.357 3.573 0.189 -0.001 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 63 0.000 0.043 0.523 1.501 0.034 0.018 MINIMUM VALUE 76 1.000 0.135 -0.407 2.396 0.155 -0.050 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 96 1.000 0.148 0.034 2.937 0.173 -0.009 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 159 1.000 0.191 0.558 4.438 0.207 0.008 MAXIMUM VALUE 273 1.000 0.227 1.220 9.214 0.248 0.066 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.349 0.119 0.007 0.318 4.386 0.011 0.783 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.011 SERIES 607131 AND 607142 101 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.783 SERIES 607111 AND 607112 82 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 39.13 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 3. 6. 6. 15. 28. 55. 190. 325. RBAR 0.558 0.660 0.614 0.440 0.301 0.447 0.433 0.372 SDEV 0.036 0.080 0.160 0.174 0.166 0.142 0.141 0.161 SERR 0.021 0.033 0.065 0.045 0.031 0.019 0.010 0.009 EPS 0.833 0.897 0.904 0.858 0.841 0.941 0.950 0.939 NSS 4.0 4.5 5.9 7.7 12.2 19.8 24.8 26.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1708 1980 273 0.994 0.156 0.035 4.605 0.189 -0.167 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.225 0.115 0.017 63 210 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.31 0.65 1.00 1.11 1.76 96.44 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.97 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.166 -0.008 0.081 -0.015 0.033 0.030 -0.050 0.005 0.018 -0.030 PACF -0.166 -0.036 0.076 0.011 0.036 0.036 -0.040 -0.015 0.010 -0.020 95% C.L. 0.121 0.124 0.124 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.126 0.126 0.126 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.029 -0.166 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.001 -0.002 -0.001 0.022 0.038 0.021 -0.043 -0.006 0.011 -0.015 PACF -0.001 -0.002 -0.001 0.022 0.038 0.021 -0.043 -0.007 0.009 -0.018 95% C.L. 0.121 0.121 0.121 0.121 0.121 0.121 0.121 0.122 0.122 0.122 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.000 -0.001 -0.002 -0.001 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1708 1980 273 0.995 0.176 0.361 3.987 0.165 0.314 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.313 0.379 0.388 0.242 0.250 0.208 0.121 0.134 0.118 0.073 PACF 0.313 0.312 0.256 0.016 0.024 0.010 -0.056 -0.006 0.026 -0.005 95% C.L. 0.121 0.132 0.147 0.162 0.167 0.172 0.176 0.177 0.179 0.180 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.244 0.132 0.255 0.267 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.24 MINUTES