RUN: SWIT001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWIT124E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWIT124E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 607 1 Bźrchen Bielwald WIDTH_EARLY PCAB - 607 2 Switzerland Norway spruce 1740 4617-750 1707 1980 - 607 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 9 607251 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1794 1798 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 607211 1822 1980 159 1.010 0.266 0.588 3.406 0.151 0.749 2 607212 1822 1980 159 1.112 0.298 0.722 4.096 0.142 0.769 3 607221 1818 1980 163 0.933 0.247 0.588 3.291 0.145 0.746 4 607222 1818 1980 163 0.989 0.345 0.854 4.209 0.167 0.818 5 607231 1775 1980 206 0.759 0.349 0.487 2.338 0.158 0.911 6 607232 1823 1980 158 0.821 0.190 0.566 2.865 0.124 0.781 7 607241 1827 1980 154 0.741 0.336 0.490 2.728 0.156 0.919 8 607242 1740 1980 241 0.573 0.309 0.522 2.190 0.202 0.926 9 607251 1713 1980 268 0.561 0.418 1.035 3.941 0.306 0.942 10 607252 1715 1980 266 0.522 0.435 1.552 6.493 0.357 0.937 11 607261 1715 1980 266 0.484 0.280 0.113 2.068 0.173 0.942 12 607262 1739 1980 242 0.529 0.266 -0.279 1.830 0.176 0.916 13 607271 1811 1980 170 0.994 0.321 1.573 6.123 0.160 0.810 14 607272 1811 1980 170 0.847 0.230 0.493 3.380 0.152 0.726 15 607281 1729 1980 252 0.430 0.161 0.259 2.509 0.158 0.866 16 607282 1707 1980 274 0.421 0.152 0.786 3.143 0.153 0.864 17 607291 1821 1980 160 0.606 0.135 0.637 3.329 0.137 0.687 18 607292 1712 1980 269 0.537 0.288 0.044 2.004 0.204 0.927 19 607301 1710 1980 271 0.661 0.375 0.645 3.395 0.196 0.914 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 607302 1805 1980 176 0.869 0.313 1.115 5.285 0.138 0.863 21 607311 1710 1980 271 0.534 0.215 0.602 3.572 0.201 0.797 22 607312 1713 1980 268 0.701 0.319 0.276 2.580 0.193 0.894 23 607321 1795 1980 186 0.722 0.169 0.607 3.640 0.127 0.757 24 607322 1797 1980 184 0.688 0.154 0.137 2.733 0.111 0.802 25 607331 1798 1980 183 0.752 0.419 1.297 4.416 0.173 0.921 26 607332 1813 1980 168 0.913 0.408 1.283 5.072 0.147 0.907 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 26 FROM 1707 TO 1980 274 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 209 0.720 0.284 0.654 3.486 0.173 0.850 STANDARD DEVIATION 47 0.196 0.090 0.452 1.220 0.053 0.079 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 185 0.712 0.293 0.595 3.355 0.158 0.865 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 103 0.332 0.130 0.367 1.516 0.048 0.138 MINIMUM VALUE 154 0.421 0.135 -0.279 1.830 0.111 0.687 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 163 0.537 0.215 0.487 2.580 0.145 0.781 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 266 0.869 0.345 0.854 4.096 0.193 0.919 MAXIMUM VALUE 274 1.112 0.435 1.573 6.493 0.357 0.942 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.414 0.239 0.013 -0.005 2.225 -0.255 0.934 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.255 SERIES 607231 AND 607291 160 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.934 SERIES 607251 AND 607252 266 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 66.63 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 36. 55. 66. 120. 325. 325. 325. 325. RBAR 0.261 0.316 0.735 0.449 0.369 0.318 0.276 0.172 SDEV 0.377 0.256 0.147 0.314 0.269 0.274 0.262 0.289 SERR 0.063 0.034 0.018 0.029 0.015 0.015 0.015 0.016 EPS 0.795 0.853 0.981 0.952 0.938 0.924 0.908 0.844 NSS 11.0 12.6 18.2 24.3 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1707 1980 274 0.586 0.282 0.055 2.013 0.146 0.957 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.796 0.262 0.053 65 209 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.17 0.56 1.00 1.05 1.60 8.89 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.06 0.00 0.87 0.93 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 185. 103. 154. 163. 266. 274. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.953 0.934 0.912 0.898 0.883 0.870 0.854 0.838 0.825 0.805 PACF 0.953 0.277 0.054 0.096 0.033 0.038 -0.016 -0.019 0.021 -0.062 95% C.L. 0.121 0.203 0.258 0.301 0.338 0.370 0.399 0.425 0.449 0.470 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.918 0.690 0.277 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 607211 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00053708 1.05340660 2 607212 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00066548 1.16512537 3 607221 1 0.32769024 0.12083411 0.00000000 0.91698569 4 607222 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00091096 1.06328785 5 607231 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00045921 0.71130663 6 607232 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00064286 0.87205672 7 607241 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00647915 1.24278331 8 607242 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00078678 0.47787032 9 607251 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00219040 0.25865901 10 607252 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00232442 0.21164449 11 607261 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00281783 0.10810555 12 607262 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00289305 0.17766812 13 607271 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00098016 1.07780373 14 607272 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00094631 0.92808563 15 607281 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00051293 0.36555082 16 607282 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00034880 0.37331757 17 607291 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00064659 0.55413681 18 607292 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00261561 0.18365782 19 607301 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00218456 0.36408117 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 607302 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00138543 0.99136037 21 607311 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00076635 0.42983600 22 607312 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00211501 0.41698641 23 607321 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00041971 0.76117873 24 607322 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00011698 0.67760336 25 607331 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00096961 0.84117097 26 607332 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00343989 1.20406330 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 607211 1822 1980 159 1.000 0.260 0.466 3.109 0.150 0.741 2 607212 1822 1980 159 1.000 0.264 0.562 3.667 0.141 0.757 3 607221 1818 1980 163 1.000 0.257 0.375 2.745 0.144 0.736 4 607222 1818 1980 163 1.000 0.345 0.815 4.107 0.166 0.816 5 607231 1775 1980 206 1.000 0.462 0.530 2.372 0.157 0.906 6 607232 1823 1980 158 1.000 0.227 0.430 2.733 0.123 0.766 7 607241 1827 1980 154 0.999 0.230 0.329 3.038 0.155 0.623 8 607242 1740 1980 241 0.997 0.528 0.538 2.225 0.201 0.915 9 607251 1713 1980 268 0.967 0.704 1.491 5.268 0.303 0.918 10 607252 1715 1980 266 0.961 0.792 2.108 8.760 0.356 0.911 11 607261 1715 1980 266 1.009 0.474 1.186 5.687 0.172 0.844 12 607262 1739 1980 242 0.968 0.368 1.027 4.357 0.175 0.827 13 607271 1811 1980 170 1.000 0.310 1.302 5.421 0.159 0.791 14 607272 1811 1980 170 1.000 0.257 0.184 3.304 0.151 0.693 15 607281 1729 1980 252 1.000 0.381 0.685 3.641 0.158 0.847 16 607282 1707 1980 274 1.000 0.357 0.871 3.395 0.153 0.846 17 607291 1821 1980 160 1.000 0.218 0.711 3.639 0.137 0.666 18 607292 1712 1980 269 1.003 0.464 0.829 4.961 0.204 0.847 19 607301 1710 1980 271 0.988 0.535 1.251 5.384 0.195 0.887 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 607302 1805 1980 176 1.000 0.332 0.550 4.022 0.137 0.839 21 607311 1710 1980 271 0.998 0.401 0.947 4.506 0.200 0.747 22 607312 1713 1980 268 0.991 0.410 0.765 3.686 0.192 0.847 23 607321 1795 1980 186 1.000 0.231 0.658 4.101 0.127 0.747 24 607322 1797 1980 184 1.000 0.224 0.128 2.750 0.110 0.797 25 607331 1798 1980 183 0.999 0.534 1.157 4.137 0.172 0.909 26 607332 1813 1980 168 0.994 0.360 0.870 4.650 0.147 0.862 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 210 0.995 0.382 0.799 4.064 0.172 0.811 STANDARD DEVIATION 48 0.012 0.149 0.438 1.361 0.053 0.080 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 185 1.000 0.359 0.738 3.854 0.157 0.833 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 103 0.003 0.207 0.497 1.541 0.049 0.114 MINIMUM VALUE 154 0.961 0.218 0.128 2.225 0.110 0.623 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 163 0.997 0.257 0.530 3.109 0.144 0.747 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 266 1.000 0.464 1.027 4.650 0.192 0.862 MAXIMUM VALUE 274 1.009 0.792 2.108 8.760 0.356 0.918 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 607211 -67 106 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 607212 -67 106 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 607221 -67 109 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 607222 -67 109 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 607231 -67 138 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 607232 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 607241 -67 103 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 607242 -67 161 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 607251 -67 179 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 607252 -67 178 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 607261 -67 178 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 607262 -67 162 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 607271 -67 113 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 607272 -67 113 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 607281 -67 168 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 607282 -67 183 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 607291 -67 107 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 607292 -67 180 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 607301 -67 181 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 607302 -67 117 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 607311 -67 181 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 607312 -67 179 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 607321 -67 124 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 607322 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 607331 -67 122 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 607332 -67 112 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 607211 1822 1980 159 0.995 0.235 0.506 3.487 0.150 0.685 2 607212 1822 1980 159 0.993 0.220 0.586 3.711 0.141 0.649 3 607221 1818 1980 163 0.999 0.252 0.527 3.128 0.144 0.728 4 607222 1818 1980 163 0.994 0.305 0.781 3.688 0.166 0.761 5 607231 1775 1980 206 0.999 0.316 1.952 9.627 0.157 0.749 6 607232 1823 1980 158 0.997 0.201 0.589 3.177 0.123 0.708 7 607241 1827 1980 154 0.997 0.211 0.234 2.825 0.155 0.556 8 607242 1740 1980 241 0.979 0.298 -0.078 2.724 0.201 0.630 9 607251 1713 1980 268 0.968 0.439 0.744 4.237 0.303 0.632 10 607252 1715 1980 266 0.944 0.509 1.419 6.473 0.356 0.668 11 607261 1715 1980 266 0.964 0.317 1.186 7.563 0.172 0.756 12 607262 1739 1980 242 0.995 0.254 0.646 4.564 0.175 0.603 13 607271 1811 1980 170 0.996 0.261 0.831 4.355 0.159 0.696 14 607272 1811 1980 170 0.995 0.226 0.244 2.942 0.151 0.601 15 607281 1729 1980 252 0.976 0.239 0.272 3.500 0.158 0.674 16 607282 1707 1980 274 0.984 0.222 0.369 3.381 0.153 0.639 17 607291 1821 1980 160 0.998 0.199 0.716 3.832 0.136 0.605 18 607292 1712 1980 269 0.969 0.342 0.507 4.767 0.203 0.756 19 607301 1710 1980 271 0.970 0.387 1.145 6.609 0.195 0.800 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 607302 1805 1980 176 0.985 0.270 1.044 6.257 0.137 0.765 21 607311 1710 1980 271 0.987 0.315 1.210 9.138 0.200 0.551 22 607312 1713 1980 268 0.984 0.306 0.862 5.279 0.192 0.711 23 607321 1795 1980 186 0.998 0.214 0.772 4.409 0.127 0.711 24 607322 1797 1980 184 0.997 0.186 0.499 3.846 0.110 0.701 25 607331 1798 1980 183 0.983 0.305 1.180 4.310 0.173 0.708 26 607332 1813 1980 168 0.986 0.231 1.215 7.343 0.146 0.701 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 210 0.986 0.279 0.768 4.814 0.172 0.682 STANDARD DEVIATION 48 0.014 0.077 0.439 1.922 0.053 0.066 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 185 0.990 0.257 0.730 4.274 0.157 0.699 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 103 0.018 0.093 0.639 2.769 0.048 0.097 MINIMUM VALUE 154 0.944 0.186 -0.078 2.724 0.110 0.551 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 163 0.979 0.222 0.506 3.487 0.144 0.632 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 266 0.997 0.315 1.145 6.257 0.192 0.728 MAXIMUM VALUE 274 0.999 0.509 1.952 9.627 0.356 0.800 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.330 0.162 0.009 0.229 3.240 -0.082 0.863 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.082 SERIES 607221 AND 607262 163 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.863 SERIES 607251 AND 607252 266 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 66.63 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 36. 55. 66. 120. 325. 325. 325. 325. RBAR 0.258 0.347 0.550 0.330 0.380 0.320 0.301 0.269 SDEV 0.392 0.289 0.244 0.295 0.245 0.226 0.208 0.216 SERR 0.065 0.039 0.030 0.027 0.014 0.013 0.012 0.012 EPS 0.793 0.870 0.957 0.923 0.941 0.925 0.918 0.905 NSS 11.0 12.6 18.2 24.3 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1707 1980 274 0.967 0.231 0.602 5.292 0.153 0.651 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.152 0.065 0.165 75 199 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.29 0.69 1.00 1.11 1.80 65.80 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.07 0.00 0.85 0.92 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.648 0.630 0.571 0.528 0.484 0.446 0.409 0.359 0.286 0.264 PACF 0.648 0.362 0.151 0.073 0.033 0.016 0.006 -0.032 -0.097 -0.010 95% C.L. 0.121 0.164 0.196 0.219 0.237 0.251 0.262 0.271 0.278 0.282 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.523 0.350 0.311 0.157 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.672 0.600 0.500 0.450 0.367 0.337 0.262 0.204 0.156 0.091 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.672 2 0.491 0.270 3 0.478 0.247 0.047 4 0.475 0.232 0.018 0.061 5 0.477 0.232 0.025 0.074 -0.028 6 0.478 0.230 0.024 0.065 -0.046 0.038 7 0.480 0.227 0.027 0.066 -0.035 0.061 -0.048 8 0.478 0.230 0.025 0.069 -0.034 0.072 -0.025 -0.048 9 0.477 0.230 0.026 0.069 -0.033 0.073 -0.021 -0.039 -0.018 10 0.475 0.227 0.025 0.074 -0.035 0.077 -0.019 -0.023 0.015 -0.069 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2246.50 2083.67 2064.93 2066.32 2067.31 2069.09 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2070.70 2072.05 2073.43 2075.34 2076.02 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.491 0.270 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 49.20 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 196.85 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.491 0.511 0.383 0.326 0.264 0.217 0.178 0.146 0.120 0.0982 0.080 0.066 0.054 0.044 0.036 0.030 0.024 0.020 0.016 0.0135 0.011 0.009 0.007 0.006 0.005 0.004 0.003 0.003 0.002 0.0019 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0003 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 607211 2 0.495 0.624 0.103 2 607212 2 0.447 0.531 0.185 3 607221 2 0.537 0.710 0.031 4 607222 2 0.590 0.652 0.144 5 607231 2 0.613 0.641 0.173 6 607232 2 0.522 0.604 0.148 7 607241 2 0.361 0.414 0.259 8 607242 2 0.477 0.442 0.311 9 607251 2 0.534 0.358 0.435 10 607252 2 0.605 0.361 0.474 11 607261 2 0.615 0.607 0.207 12 607262 2 0.413 0.454 0.256 13 607271 2 0.539 0.539 0.238 14 607272 2 0.377 0.604 0.007 15 607281 2 0.517 0.507 0.262 16 607282 2 0.476 0.511 0.218 17 607291 2 0.379 0.595 0.030 18 607292 2 0.590 0.649 0.148 19 607301 2 0.657 0.644 0.197 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 607302 2 0.601 0.736 0.048 21 607311 2 0.434 0.406 0.321 22 607312 2 0.551 0.589 0.192 23 607321 2 0.519 0.715 0.002 24 607322 2 0.500 0.733 -0.040 25 607331 2 0.544 0.690 0.063 26 607332 2 0.501 0.689 0.024 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.515 0.577 0.171 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.079 0.115 0.131 MEDIAN 2 0.521 0.604 0.179 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.113 0.145 0.208 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.361 0.358 -0.040 LOWER HINGE 2 0.476 0.507 0.048 UPPER HINGE 2 0.590 0.652 0.256 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.657 0.736 0.474 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 607211 1822 1980 159 1.000 0.167 0.341 3.076 0.183 0.003 2 607212 1822 1980 159 1.000 0.164 0.406 3.148 0.176 0.013 3 607221 1818 1980 163 1.000 0.171 0.678 3.722 0.184 -0.004 4 607222 1818 1980 163 1.000 0.195 0.855 5.320 0.204 -0.012 5 607231 1775 1980 206 1.000 0.192 0.636 7.757 0.212 -0.020 6 607232 1823 1980 158 1.000 0.140 0.198 3.350 0.158 -0.017 7 607241 1827 1980 154 1.000 0.169 0.123 3.602 0.176 0.017 8 607242 1740 1980 241 1.000 0.215 -0.385 4.282 0.229 -0.051 9 607251 1713 1980 268 1.000 0.305 0.716 6.058 0.319 -0.086 10 607252 1715 1980 266 1.000 0.322 0.750 5.765 0.347 -0.102 11 607261 1715 1980 266 1.000 0.198 0.782 5.902 0.211 -0.044 12 607262 1739 1980 242 1.000 0.194 0.673 5.670 0.209 -0.005 13 607271 1811 1980 170 1.000 0.178 -0.115 3.100 0.199 0.022 14 607272 1811 1980 170 1.000 0.179 0.443 4.653 0.189 -0.002 15 607281 1729 1980 252 1.000 0.165 -0.113 3.169 0.188 -0.050 16 607282 1707 1980 274 1.000 0.162 -0.115 3.792 0.191 -0.059 17 607291 1821 1980 160 1.000 0.156 0.703 3.826 0.169 -0.003 18 607292 1712 1980 269 1.000 0.218 0.209 4.361 0.248 -0.002 19 607301 1710 1980 271 1.000 0.227 0.902 6.082 0.243 -0.009 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 607302 1805 1980 176 1.000 0.170 1.107 5.935 0.185 -0.002 21 607311 1710 1980 271 1.002 0.225 1.047 10.624 0.227 -0.033 22 607312 1713 1980 268 1.000 0.203 1.017 6.108 0.230 -0.029 23 607321 1795 1980 186 1.000 0.149 0.520 3.411 0.166 -0.004 24 607322 1797 1980 184 1.000 0.131 -0.006 3.059 0.148 0.004 25 607331 1798 1980 183 1.000 0.203 0.604 5.212 0.223 -0.022 26 607332 1813 1980 168 1.000 0.163 0.584 4.225 0.189 0.005 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 210 1.000 0.191 0.483 4.816 0.208 -0.019 STANDARD DEVIATION 48 0.000 0.044 0.404 1.743 0.045 0.031 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 185 1.000 0.178 0.594 4.322 0.195 -0.007 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 103 0.000 0.039 0.552 2.492 0.044 0.031 MINIMUM VALUE 154 1.000 0.131 -0.385 3.059 0.148 -0.102 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 163 1.000 0.164 0.198 3.411 0.183 -0.033 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 266 1.000 0.203 0.750 5.902 0.227 -0.002 MAXIMUM VALUE 274 1.002 0.322 1.107 10.624 0.347 0.022 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.365 0.109 0.006 0.369 4.769 0.039 0.833 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.039 SERIES 607262 AND 607321 186 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.833 SERIES 607251 AND 607252 266 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 66.63 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 36. 55. 66. 120. 325. 325. 325. 325. RBAR 0.518 0.516 0.446 0.283 0.302 0.415 0.452 0.365 SDEV 0.145 0.140 0.151 0.184 0.153 0.115 0.117 0.143 SERR 0.024 0.019 0.019 0.017 0.008 0.006 0.006 0.008 EPS 0.922 0.931 0.936 0.905 0.918 0.949 0.955 0.937 NSS 11.0 12.6 18.2 24.3 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1707 1980 274 0.994 0.148 0.195 4.454 0.168 -0.142 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.236 0.114 0.038 86 188 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.23 0.70 1.00 1.09 1.78 8.38 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.07 0.00 0.86 0.93 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.142 -0.099 0.040 0.088 0.040 0.030 0.044 0.062 -0.009 -0.005 PACF -0.142 -0.122 0.007 0.087 0.076 0.069 0.069 0.082 0.012 -0.008 95% C.L. 0.121 0.123 0.124 0.125 0.125 0.126 0.126 0.126 0.126 0.126 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.035 -0.160 -0.123 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.002 0.013 0.028 0.101 0.075 0.067 0.068 0.075 0.008 0.009 PACF 0.002 0.013 0.028 0.101 0.076 0.065 0.063 0.063 -0.009 -0.013 95% C.L. 0.121 0.121 0.121 0.121 0.122 0.123 0.123 0.124 0.125 0.125 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.001 0.002 0.013 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1707 1980 274 0.996 0.235 0.356 4.196 0.129 0.758 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.756 0.713 0.637 0.604 0.552 0.506 0.458 0.413 0.350 0.311 PACF 0.756 0.332 0.069 0.087 0.017 -0.006 -0.016 -0.022 -0.073 -0.015 95% C.L. 0.121 0.177 0.215 0.241 0.262 0.278 0.292 0.302 0.310 0.316 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.627 0.500 0.341 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.23 MINUTES