RUN: SWIT001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWIT126E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWIT126E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 602 1 Tatz Stockwald WIDTH_EARLY PCAB - 602 2 Switzerland Norway spruce 1850 4620-747 1769 1980 - 602 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 3 602221 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1920 1924 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 602222 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 8 IN 2 GAPS / 1875 1877 / 1920 1924 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 602211 1862 1980 119 1.890 0.483 0.747 3.450 0.168 0.685 2 602212 1867 1980 114 1.572 0.404 0.780 3.705 0.160 0.704 3 602221 1876 1980 105 1.920 0.535 0.159 2.620 0.161 0.737 4 602222 1867 1980 114 2.034 0.561 0.350 2.731 0.171 0.708 5 602231 1874 1980 107 1.798 0.473 0.449 2.860 0.189 0.607 6 602232 1875 1980 106 1.970 0.715 1.053 3.484 0.200 0.780 7 602241 1886 1980 95 2.022 0.558 -0.092 2.042 0.143 0.757 8 602242 1878 1980 103 1.824 0.461 0.089 2.583 0.136 0.762 9 602251 1856 1980 125 1.830 0.675 0.307 2.572 0.153 0.854 10 602252 1856 1980 125 1.546 0.566 0.257 2.335 0.150 0.873 11 602261 1895 1980 86 2.702 0.693 0.353 3.155 0.162 0.713 12 602262 1891 1980 90 2.831 0.771 0.062 2.816 0.150 0.771 13 602271 1866 1980 115 1.817 1.084 0.611 2.440 0.157 0.931 14 602272 1867 1980 114 2.024 0.951 0.007 2.082 0.138 0.935 15 602281 1834 1980 147 1.292 0.560 0.565 2.692 0.163 0.868 16 602282 1832 1980 149 1.343 0.604 1.021 3.200 0.154 0.895 17 602291 1856 1980 125 1.933 1.118 1.131 4.466 0.157 0.920 18 602292 1863 1980 118 1.893 0.967 0.085 1.805 0.148 0.932 19 602301 1922 1980 59 3.036 1.126 1.054 4.121 0.140 0.851 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 602302 1924 1980 57 2.864 0.995 0.425 3.119 0.143 0.876 21 602311 1778 1980 203 1.054 0.369 -0.050 2.215 0.133 0.891 22 602312 1796 1980 185 1.031 0.195 0.453 2.944 0.136 0.603 23 602321 1839 1980 142 1.550 0.491 1.291 6.427 0.169 0.695 24 602322 1836 1980 145 1.905 0.391 0.530 4.129 0.148 0.592 25 602331 1769 1980 212 0.726 0.297 0.139 2.714 0.187 0.832 26 602332 1769 1980 212 0.610 0.222 0.654 3.406 0.178 0.819 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 26 FROM 1769 TO 1980 212 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 125 1.808 0.626 0.478 3.081 0.158 0.792 STANDARD DEVIATION 40 0.605 0.271 0.395 0.955 0.017 0.106 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 116 1.860 0.561 0.437 2.838 0.156 0.799 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 42 0.476 0.310 0.608 0.877 0.025 0.167 MINIMUM VALUE 57 0.610 0.195 -0.092 1.805 0.133 0.592 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 103 1.546 0.461 0.139 2.572 0.143 0.708 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 145 2.022 0.771 0.747 3.450 0.168 0.876 MAXIMUM VALUE 212 3.036 1.126 1.291 6.427 0.200 0.935 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.390 0.286 0.016 -0.572 3.212 -0.543 0.965 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.543 SERIES 602311 AND 602331 203 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.965 SERIES 602301 AND 602302 57 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 48.87 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1794. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 1. 3. 6. 28. 136. 276. 276. RBAR 0.782 -0.018 0.182 0.407 0.284 0.152 0.516 SDEV 0.000 0.532 0.456 0.282 0.342 0.286 0.312 SERR 0.000 0.307 0.186 0.053 0.029 0.017 0.019 EPS 0.922 -0.090 0.646 0.915 0.898 0.817 0.965 NSS 3.3 4.8 8.2 15.7 22.3 24.9 25.9 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1769 1980 212 1.384 0.466 -0.199 2.197 0.121 0.895 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.883 0.611 -0.254 34 178 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.24 0.60 1.01 1.11 1.71 2.30 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.93 0.13 0.57 0.87 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 116. 40. 57. 105. 145. 212. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.890 0.853 0.822 0.776 0.746 0.712 0.678 0.675 0.654 0.633 PACF 0.890 0.291 0.132 -0.033 0.033 0.000 -0.004 0.141 0.022 -0.012 95% C.L. 0.137 0.221 0.276 0.319 0.353 0.381 0.406 0.427 0.446 0.464 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.843 0.525 0.238 0.186 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 602211 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00003084 1.88848591 2 602212 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00093907 1.51810896 3 602221 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00173771 2.01381040 4 602222 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00286047 1.83800912 5 602231 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00234860 1.92495501 6 602232 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00043625 1.99381137 7 602241 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01554031 2.76825094 8 602242 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01020022 2.35410047 9 602251 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01080657 2.51097417 10 602252 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00913936 2.12185931 11 602261 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01920449 3.53702331 12 602262 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.02215944 3.83892131 13 602271 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.03014385 3.56556058 14 602272 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.02698240 3.57561088 15 602281 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01079479 2.09085536 16 602282 1 2.07358289 0.01807627 0.00000000 0.63151747 17 602291 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01314519 2.76070714 18 602292 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.02400305 3.32114720 19 602301 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.04001052 4.23607826 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 602302 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.04272816 4.10297632 21 602311 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00488094 0.55657804 22 602312 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00031962 1.00168037 23 602321 1 1.13254237 0.00833125 0.00000000 0.88875329 24 602322 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00089427 1.96997118 25 602331 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00344288 1.09275198 26 602332 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00231557 0.85679740 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 602211 1862 1980 119 1.000 0.255 0.747 3.451 0.167 0.679 2 602212 1867 1980 114 1.000 0.256 0.791 3.752 0.159 0.694 3 602221 1876 1980 105 1.000 0.267 0.050 2.837 0.159 0.707 4 602222 1867 1980 114 1.000 0.272 0.356 2.680 0.171 0.693 5 602231 1874 1980 107 1.000 0.261 0.517 2.893 0.187 0.606 6 602232 1875 1980 106 1.000 0.363 1.062 3.486 0.198 0.773 7 602241 1886 1980 95 0.998 0.172 -0.394 3.328 0.141 0.478 8 602242 1878 1980 103 0.999 0.183 -0.227 3.373 0.134 0.567 9 602251 1856 1980 125 0.993 0.265 -0.321 3.204 0.152 0.759 10 602252 1856 1980 125 0.994 0.261 -0.434 3.266 0.148 0.785 11 602261 1895 1980 86 1.000 0.185 0.310 3.821 0.159 0.387 12 602262 1891 1980 90 0.997 0.171 -0.344 3.105 0.149 0.439 13 602271 1866 1980 115 1.237 1.355 5.490 31.000 0.160 0.773 14 602272 1867 1980 114 0.995 0.182 -0.083 4.006 0.136 0.585 15 602281 1834 1980 147 1.001 0.242 0.654 3.481 0.162 0.674 16 602282 1832 1980 149 1.001 0.218 0.223 2.765 0.153 0.647 17 602291 1856 1980 125 0.982 0.561 1.874 6.302 0.156 0.909 18 602292 1863 1980 118 0.983 0.268 1.461 5.932 0.147 0.773 19 602301 1922 1980 59 0.993 0.255 1.065 5.177 0.137 0.715 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 602302 1924 1980 57 0.992 0.219 0.512 3.522 0.138 0.699 21 602311 1778 1980 203 0.994 0.234 0.602 3.484 0.132 0.744 22 602312 1796 1980 185 1.000 0.188 0.482 3.057 0.135 0.593 23 602321 1839 1980 142 1.000 0.289 1.974 11.529 0.168 0.654 24 602322 1836 1980 145 1.000 0.205 0.629 4.555 0.147 0.589 25 602331 1769 1980 212 0.989 0.275 -0.308 3.510 0.186 0.634 26 602332 1769 1980 212 0.998 0.254 -0.075 3.797 0.177 0.622 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 126 1.006 0.294 0.639 5.051 0.156 0.661 STANDARD DEVIATION 40 0.047 0.230 1.191 5.582 0.018 0.115 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 116 0.999 0.255 0.497 3.485 0.155 0.677 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 40 0.006 0.063 0.873 0.801 0.025 0.151 MINIMUM VALUE 57 0.982 0.171 -0.434 2.680 0.132 0.387 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 105 0.994 0.205 -0.083 3.204 0.141 0.593 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 145 1.000 0.268 0.791 4.006 0.167 0.744 MAXIMUM VALUE 212 1.237 1.355 5.490 31.000 0.198 0.909 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 602211 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 602212 -67 76 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 602221 -67 70 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 602222 -67 76 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 602231 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 602232 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 602241 -67 63 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 602242 -67 69 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 602251 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 602252 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 602261 -67 57 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 602262 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 602271 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 602272 -67 76 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 602281 -67 98 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 602282 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 602291 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 602292 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 602301 -67 39 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 602302 -67 38 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 602311 -67 136 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 602312 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 602321 -67 95 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 602322 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 602331 -67 142 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 602332 -67 142 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 602211 1862 1980 119 0.998 0.198 0.223 2.533 0.166 0.488 2 602212 1867 1980 114 0.997 0.195 0.434 3.623 0.159 0.507 3 602221 1876 1980 105 0.993 0.211 0.542 3.760 0.160 0.548 4 602222 1867 1980 114 0.994 0.244 0.342 2.794 0.170 0.633 5 602231 1874 1980 107 0.999 0.231 0.459 3.111 0.187 0.483 6 602232 1875 1980 106 0.996 0.274 0.333 2.785 0.198 0.624 7 602241 1886 1980 95 0.999 0.158 -0.610 3.338 0.141 0.365 8 602242 1878 1980 103 0.998 0.167 -0.119 3.291 0.134 0.483 9 602251 1856 1980 125 0.992 0.200 -0.314 3.677 0.151 0.579 10 602252 1856 1980 125 0.992 0.202 -0.478 3.572 0.148 0.633 11 602261 1895 1980 86 0.998 0.171 0.481 4.365 0.159 0.290 12 602262 1891 1980 90 0.999 0.152 -0.359 3.861 0.149 0.317 13 602271 1866 1980 115 1.007 0.350 0.675 5.971 0.160 0.781 14 602272 1867 1980 114 0.998 0.168 -0.179 3.993 0.136 0.509 15 602281 1834 1980 147 0.996 0.207 0.327 3.065 0.162 0.557 16 602282 1832 1980 149 0.997 0.197 -0.006 2.800 0.153 0.578 17 602291 1856 1980 125 0.995 0.328 1.117 4.071 0.158 0.779 18 602292 1863 1980 118 0.996 0.221 0.759 4.295 0.147 0.652 19 602301 1922 1980 59 0.994 0.158 0.971 5.234 0.136 0.384 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 602302 1924 1980 57 0.996 0.145 0.578 3.794 0.135 0.416 21 602311 1778 1980 203 0.996 0.196 0.567 3.245 0.132 0.627 22 602312 1796 1980 185 0.999 0.176 0.551 3.370 0.135 0.530 23 602321 1839 1980 142 0.998 0.274 1.710 10.224 0.168 0.627 24 602322 1836 1980 145 1.000 0.199 0.494 4.357 0.147 0.562 25 602331 1769 1980 212 0.994 0.240 0.033 3.516 0.186 0.515 26 602332 1769 1980 212 0.995 0.230 -0.095 3.497 0.177 0.550 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 126 0.997 0.211 0.325 3.929 0.156 0.539 STANDARD DEVIATION 40 0.003 0.051 0.522 1.490 0.018 0.121 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 116 0.997 0.200 0.388 3.597 0.155 0.549 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 40 0.004 0.060 0.662 0.826 0.025 0.144 MINIMUM VALUE 57 0.992 0.145 -0.610 2.533 0.132 0.290 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 105 0.995 0.171 -0.095 3.245 0.141 0.483 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 145 0.998 0.231 0.567 4.071 0.166 0.627 MAXIMUM VALUE 212 1.007 0.350 1.710 10.224 0.198 0.781 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.292 0.177 0.010 0.084 4.056 -0.332 0.875 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.332 SERIES 602222 AND 602291 114 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.875 SERIES 602251 AND 602252 125 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 48.87 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1794. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 1. 3. 6. 28. 136. 276. 276. RBAR 0.731 0.163 0.295 0.406 0.282 0.262 0.388 SDEV 0.000 0.327 0.360 0.247 0.243 0.266 0.214 SERR 0.000 0.189 0.147 0.047 0.021 0.016 0.013 EPS 0.899 0.481 0.774 0.915 0.898 0.898 0.943 NSS 3.3 4.8 8.2 15.7 22.3 24.9 25.9 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1769 1980 212 0.983 0.149 -0.876 4.589 0.118 0.485 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.367 0.167 -0.006 56 156 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.21 0.39 1.00 1.07 1.46 5.33 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.96 0.11 0.70 0.89 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.483 0.383 0.341 0.185 0.129 0.015 -0.070 -0.008 0.001 -0.023 PACF 0.483 0.196 0.132 -0.080 -0.023 -0.111 -0.090 0.087 0.071 -0.006 95% C.L. 0.137 0.166 0.182 0.194 0.197 0.199 0.199 0.199 0.199 0.199 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.307 0.342 0.162 0.173 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.479 0.327 0.340 0.099 -0.055 -0.099 -0.255 -0.164 -0.045 -0.104 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.479 2 0.418 0.127 3 0.394 0.048 0.189 4 0.431 0.057 0.265 -0.193 5 0.400 0.099 0.274 -0.125 -0.157 6 0.386 0.087 0.299 -0.116 -0.120 -0.093 7 0.370 0.066 0.279 -0.064 -0.105 -0.025 -0.175 8 0.392 0.069 0.293 -0.055 -0.142 -0.034 -0.223 0.131 9 0.373 0.103 0.298 -0.034 -0.133 -0.078 -0.233 0.071 0.151 10 0.376 0.105 0.293 -0.036 -0.136 -0.079 -0.227 0.074 0.160 -0.022 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1477.49 1424.31 1422.88 1417.20 1411.15 1407.83 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1408.01 1403.45 1401.79 1398.86 1400.76 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 5 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.400 0.099 0.274 -0.125 -0.157 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 31.32 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 145.61 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 5) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.400 0.259 0.417 0.177 -0.025 0.026 -0.037 -0.107 -0.064 -.0454 -0.053 -0.024 -0.003 -0.002 0.006 0.013 0.009 0.007 0.007 0.0035 0.001 0.000 -0.001 -0.002 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 602211 5 0.311 0.580 -0.206 0.213 -0.193 -0.003 2 602212 5 0.301 0.532 -0.084 0.158 -0.098 -0.056 3 602221 5 0.356 0.541 -0.047 0.261 -0.134 -0.065 4 602222 5 0.450 0.563 0.085 0.204 -0.170 -0.060 5 602231 5 0.292 0.467 0.017 0.053 -0.077 -0.099 6 602232 5 0.433 0.603 0.085 -0.072 -0.020 -0.108 7 602241 5 0.195 0.405 -0.134 0.127 -0.116 -0.124 8 602242 5 0.275 0.495 -0.025 0.073 -0.069 -0.127 9 602251 5 0.405 0.447 0.160 0.222 -0.126 -0.024 10 602252 5 0.478 0.464 0.256 0.140 -0.138 0.006 11 602261 5 0.149 0.349 -0.123 0.188 -0.188 0.056 12 602262 5 0.215 0.434 -0.239 0.184 -0.304 0.189 13 602271 5 0.736 0.772 0.021 0.268 -0.063 -0.206 14 602272 5 0.306 0.487 0.031 0.169 -0.127 -0.046 15 602281 5 0.320 0.499 0.094 0.006 0.045 -0.046 16 602282 5 0.362 0.542 0.074 -0.020 0.118 -0.087 17 602291 5 0.665 0.624 0.204 0.126 -0.056 -0.081 18 602292 5 0.454 0.573 0.023 0.182 -0.112 0.074 19 602301 5 0.183 0.413 -0.010 -0.155 0.108 -0.094 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 602302 5 0.199 0.453 -0.056 -0.035 0.109 -0.139 21 602311 5 0.442 0.494 0.202 0.056 -0.115 0.089 22 602312 5 0.342 0.426 0.197 0.108 -0.122 0.007 23 602321 5 0.420 0.567 0.115 -0.017 -0.053 0.095 24 602322 5 0.355 0.482 0.117 0.139 -0.101 -0.071 25 602331 5 0.316 0.396 0.221 0.020 -0.007 0.027 26 602332 5 0.356 0.407 0.158 0.117 0.009 0.012 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 5 0.358 0.501 0.044 0.104 -0.077 -0.034 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.135 0.090 0.133 0.107 0.099 0.087 MEDIAN 5 0.349 0.491 0.052 0.126 -0.100 -0.051 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.142 0.129 0.205 0.164 0.107 0.106 MINIMUM VALUE 5 0.149 0.349 -0.239 -0.155 -0.304 -0.206 LOWER HINGE 5 0.292 0.434 -0.047 0.020 -0.127 -0.094 UPPER HINGE 5 0.433 0.563 0.158 0.184 -0.020 0.012 MAXIMUM VALUE 5 0.736 0.772 0.256 0.268 0.118 0.189 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 602211 1862 1980 119 1.000 0.167 0.187 2.876 0.186 0.000 2 602212 1867 1980 114 1.000 0.166 0.330 3.556 0.188 -0.009 3 602221 1876 1980 105 1.000 0.170 0.398 3.859 0.185 0.016 4 602222 1867 1980 114 1.000 0.182 0.219 2.875 0.205 -0.002 5 602231 1874 1980 107 1.000 0.199 0.567 3.847 0.219 -0.024 6 602232 1875 1980 106 1.000 0.209 0.801 4.215 0.238 -0.021 7 602241 1886 1980 95 1.000 0.142 -0.492 3.647 0.158 -0.010 8 602242 1878 1980 103 1.000 0.141 -0.017 3.627 0.161 -0.008 9 602251 1856 1980 125 1.000 0.153 0.045 2.772 0.173 -0.018 10 602252 1856 1980 125 1.000 0.145 -0.135 3.041 0.163 -0.018 11 602261 1895 1980 86 1.000 0.159 0.479 4.251 0.170 0.008 12 602262 1891 1980 90 1.000 0.136 -0.318 3.374 0.157 -0.021 13 602271 1866 1980 115 1.000 0.179 0.206 4.008 0.196 0.063 14 602272 1867 1980 114 1.000 0.141 -0.412 3.519 0.162 -0.002 15 602281 1834 1980 147 1.000 0.171 0.136 2.859 0.198 0.000 16 602282 1832 1980 149 1.000 0.156 0.008 2.536 0.184 -0.011 17 602291 1856 1980 125 1.000 0.191 0.256 4.283 0.207 0.010 18 602292 1863 1980 118 1.000 0.163 0.058 3.808 0.182 -0.005 19 602301 1922 1980 59 1.000 0.144 0.596 3.641 0.164 0.013 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 602302 1924 1980 57 1.000 0.130 0.303 2.727 0.158 0.001 21 602311 1778 1980 203 1.000 0.148 0.618 4.625 0.157 0.011 22 602312 1796 1980 185 1.000 0.143 0.221 3.264 0.162 -0.004 23 602321 1839 1980 142 1.000 0.208 1.817 10.942 0.209 -0.008 24 602322 1836 1980 145 1.000 0.161 -0.095 3.764 0.181 -0.009 25 602331 1769 1980 212 1.000 0.197 0.158 3.658 0.220 -0.010 26 602332 1769 1980 212 1.000 0.184 0.039 3.567 0.206 -0.011 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 126 1.000 0.165 0.230 3.813 0.184 -0.003 STANDARD DEVIATION 40 0.000 0.023 0.449 1.550 0.023 0.017 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 116 1.000 0.162 0.196 3.634 0.183 -0.007 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 40 0.000 0.038 0.390 0.818 0.042 0.011 MINIMUM VALUE 57 1.000 0.130 -0.492 2.536 0.157 -0.024 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 105 1.000 0.144 0.008 3.041 0.162 -0.011 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 145 1.000 0.182 0.398 3.859 0.205 0.001 MAXIMUM VALUE 212 1.000 0.209 1.817 10.942 0.238 0.063 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.333 0.124 0.007 1.057 5.475 0.086 0.831 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.086 SERIES 602221 AND 602291 105 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.831 SERIES 602241 AND 602242 95 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 48.87 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1794. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 1. 3. 6. 28. 136. 276. 276. RBAR 0.705 0.516 0.484 0.501 0.376 0.281 0.368 SDEV 0.000 0.267 0.207 0.142 0.155 0.173 0.149 SERR 0.000 0.154 0.085 0.027 0.013 0.010 0.009 EPS 0.887 0.836 0.885 0.940 0.931 0.907 0.938 NSS 3.3 4.8 8.2 15.7 22.3 24.9 25.9 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1769 1980 212 0.994 0.114 -0.270 3.588 0.134 -0.135 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.246 0.114 0.004 43 169 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.21 0.38 1.00 1.06 1.44 3.65 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.94 0.11 0.52 0.89 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.134 -0.062 0.025 0.019 0.047 -0.083 -0.158 0.040 0.030 -0.054 PACF -0.134 -0.081 0.005 0.019 0.057 -0.068 -0.179 -0.023 0.014 -0.038 95% C.L. 0.137 0.140 0.140 0.140 0.140 0.141 0.142 0.145 0.145 0.145 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.026 -0.136 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.005 0.017 0.010 -0.002 -0.024 -0.086 -0.168 0.001 0.009 -0.063 PACF 0.005 0.017 0.010 -0.002 -0.024 -0.086 -0.168 0.003 0.017 -0.062 95% C.L. 0.137 0.137 0.137 0.137 0.137 0.137 0.139 0.142 0.142 0.142 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.010 0.004 0.018 0.012 -0.001 -0.024 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1769 1980 212 0.993 0.144 -0.703 4.357 0.112 0.528 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.526 0.362 0.305 0.017 -0.157 -0.203 -0.313 -0.253 -0.161 -0.157 PACF 0.526 0.119 0.105 -0.286 -0.196 -0.070 -0.101 0.077 0.048 -0.059 95% C.L. 0.137 0.171 0.185 0.194 0.194 0.197 0.201 0.210 0.215 0.218 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 7 0.417 0.374 0.118 0.285 -0.112 -0.153 -0.055 -0.142 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.23 MINUTES