RUN: SWIT001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWIT129P.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWIT129P.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 669 1 Balmberg SO, trocken LATEWOOD_PERCENT PISY - 669 2 Switzerland Scots pine, Scotch pine 1220 4715-732 1802 1982 - 669 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 4 669031 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 11 IN 2 GAPS / 1929 1936 / 1946 1948 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 669032 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1946 1946 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 669052 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 9 IN 2 GAPS / 1949 1949 / 1960 1967 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 669061 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1910 1910 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 669092 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1888 1888 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 669112 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1945 1945 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 20 669121 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1946 1946 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 669012 1866 1982 117 2.195 0.717 0.699 3.936 0.338 0.215 2 669021 1959 1982 24 1.891 0.595 -0.172 3.524 0.406 0.091 3 669022 1855 1982 128 3.320 1.255 0.365 3.113 0.333 0.416 4 669031 1841 1982 142 3.227 1.268 0.551 3.090 0.369 0.380 5 669032 1835 1982 148 3.255 1.321 1.383 5.707 0.330 0.271 6 669041 1809 1982 174 3.033 1.059 0.944 4.677 0.307 0.343 7 669042 1811 1982 172 2.477 1.005 1.504 9.520 0.379 0.278 8 669051 1824 1980 157 3.212 1.214 0.813 3.220 0.289 0.599 9 669052 1802 1977 176 3.254 1.348 1.163 4.558 0.270 0.557 10 669061 1815 1982 168 3.395 1.093 0.340 3.327 0.274 0.410 11 669062 1813 1982 170 3.989 1.268 0.154 3.073 0.326 0.228 12 669071 1828 1982 155 2.032 0.793 0.598 2.894 0.338 0.359 13 669072 1823 1982 160 2.825 0.997 0.383 3.156 0.300 0.494 14 669091 1909 1982 74 2.639 0.895 1.368 4.876 0.355 0.011 15 669092 1827 1982 156 2.829 0.977 0.585 2.951 0.308 0.353 16 669101 1871 1982 112 2.003 0.696 0.553 3.716 0.340 0.305 17 669102 1859 1982 124 2.120 0.696 0.661 3.482 0.327 0.241 18 669111 1882 1982 101 3.252 1.554 1.015 3.895 0.397 0.412 19 669112 1844 1982 139 3.580 1.234 0.547 3.243 0.339 0.227 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 669121 1874 1982 109 2.916 1.037 0.411 2.786 0.398 0.004 21 669122 1928 1982 55 2.644 1.116 1.100 5.613 0.389 0.210 22 669131 1863 1981 119 2.774 1.020 0.334 3.148 0.395 0.133 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 22 FROM 1802 TO 1982 181 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 130 2.857 1.053 0.695 3.977 0.341 0.297 STANDARD DEVIATION 39 0.563 0.248 0.426 1.503 0.041 0.157 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 134 2.873 1.048 0.592 3.404 0.338 0.291 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 48 0.777 0.360 0.632 1.445 0.071 0.195 MINIMUM VALUE 24 1.891 0.595 -0.172 2.786 0.270 0.004 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 112 2.477 0.895 0.383 3.113 0.308 0.215 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 160 3.254 1.255 1.015 4.558 0.379 0.410 MAXIMUM VALUE 174 3.989 1.554 1.504 9.520 0.406 0.599 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 230 0.156 0.182 0.012 0.015 3.140 -0.405 0.681 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.405 SERIES 669052 AND 669072 155 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.681 SERIES 669092 AND 669122 55 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 99.57 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 59.65 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 45. 91. 171. 190. RBAR 0.152 0.150 0.172 0.156 SDEV 0.232 0.213 0.205 0.217 SERR 0.035 0.022 0.016 0.016 EPS 0.717 0.759 0.803 0.792 NSS 14.2 17.9 19.7 20.7 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1802 1982 181 2.807 0.517 0.077 3.286 0.202 0.123 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.379 0.278 0.198 62 119 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.39 1.00 1.00 1.16 2.16 43.01 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.08 0.00 0.86 0.94 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 140. 48. 24. 112. 160. 176. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.123 0.082 0.175 0.122 -0.046 0.106 0.031 0.081 -0.089 -0.065 PACF 0.123 0.068 0.160 0.084 -0.093 0.085 -0.014 0.086 -0.130 -0.084 95% C.L. 0.149 0.151 0.152 0.156 0.158 0.159 0.160 0.160 0.161 0.162 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.020 0.123 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 669012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00835289 1.70196581 2 669021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01406956 1.71496379 3 669022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02005691 2.02593875 4 669031 1 1.35865557 0.02487673 0.00000000 2.74760890 5 669032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00820763 2.63948369 6 669041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00478289 2.61448550 7 669042 1 1.07893348 0.03185743 0.00000000 2.28400636 8 669051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00850799 2.53977942 9 669052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01730853 1.77341437 10 669061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00518732 3.83430958 11 669062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00119569 3.88670945 12 669071 1 1.10330522 0.05210234 0.00000000 1.89908350 13 669072 1 3.44179201 0.00662421 0.00000000 0.70975757 14 669091 1 1.35311258 0.05061957 0.00000000 2.29494214 15 669092 1 0.53950483 0.00940040 0.00000000 2.54340601 16 669101 1 1.41459131 0.02612461 0.00000000 1.55110061 17 669102 1 0.70073050 0.01982471 0.00000000 1.86192977 18 669111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01906756 4.22482157 19 669112 1 0.60729563 0.07621401 0.00000000 3.54586840 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 669121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00011553 2.91520905 21 669122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.03550072 1.65034342 22 669131 1 0.68826306 0.03434766 0.00000000 2.61155558 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 669012 1866 1982 117 1.002 0.309 0.950 5.492 0.335 0.089 2 669021 1959 1982 24 1.000 0.313 -0.186 3.247 0.389 0.042 3 669022 1855 1982 128 0.997 0.308 0.132 2.522 0.330 0.109 4 669031 1841 1982 142 1.000 0.405 0.681 3.507 0.379 0.390 5 669032 1835 1982 148 1.001 0.398 1.894 9.843 0.329 0.217 6 669041 1809 1982 174 1.000 0.335 0.663 3.779 0.305 0.313 7 669042 1811 1982 172 1.000 0.397 1.484 8.622 0.377 0.235 8 669051 1824 1980 157 0.999 0.353 0.838 3.679 0.287 0.514 9 669052 1802 1977 176 1.002 0.294 0.590 3.282 0.274 0.250 10 669061 1815 1982 168 1.000 0.318 0.519 3.688 0.271 0.374 11 669062 1813 1982 170 1.000 0.316 0.118 3.043 0.324 0.225 12 669071 1828 1982 155 1.000 0.384 0.822 3.538 0.336 0.322 13 669072 1823 1982 160 1.000 0.288 0.599 4.972 0.298 0.139 14 669091 1909 1982 74 1.000 0.307 1.073 4.059 0.350 -0.173 15 669092 1827 1982 156 1.000 0.343 0.615 3.163 0.310 0.320 16 669101 1871 1982 112 1.000 0.303 0.291 3.470 0.337 0.090 17 669102 1859 1982 124 1.000 0.322 0.824 4.094 0.324 0.186 18 669111 1882 1982 101 0.998 0.429 0.871 4.102 0.393 0.264 19 669112 1844 1982 139 1.000 0.348 0.579 3.230 0.338 0.228 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 669121 1874 1982 109 1.000 0.356 0.428 2.801 0.402 -0.025 21 669122 1928 1982 55 0.996 0.376 1.788 7.874 0.380 -0.048 22 669131 1863 1981 119 1.000 0.370 0.510 3.554 0.392 0.110 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 131 1.000 0.344 0.731 4.344 0.339 0.190 STANDARD DEVIATION 40 0.001 0.040 0.502 1.942 0.040 0.160 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 140 1.000 0.339 0.639 3.617 0.336 0.221 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 48 0.000 0.067 0.361 0.855 0.069 0.223 MINIMUM VALUE 24 0.996 0.288 -0.186 2.522 0.271 -0.173 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 112 1.000 0.309 0.510 3.247 0.310 0.090 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 160 1.000 0.376 0.871 4.102 0.379 0.313 MAXIMUM VALUE 176 1.002 0.429 1.894 9.843 0.402 0.514 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 669012 -67 78 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 669021 -67 16 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 669022 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 669031 -67 95 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 669032 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 669041 -67 116 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 669042 -67 115 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 669051 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 669052 -67 117 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 669061 -67 112 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 669062 -67 113 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 669071 -67 103 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 669072 -67 107 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 669091 -67 49 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 669092 -67 104 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 669101 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 669102 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 669111 -67 67 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 669112 -67 93 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 669121 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 669122 -67 36 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 669131 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 669012 1866 1982 117 0.999 0.281 0.353 3.200 0.336 -0.035 2 669021 1959 1982 24 0.996 0.291 -0.408 3.263 0.388 -0.119 3 669022 1855 1982 128 0.999 0.302 0.315 2.870 0.331 -0.009 4 669031 1841 1982 142 0.996 0.390 0.620 3.470 0.379 0.333 5 669032 1835 1982 148 0.998 0.385 1.834 8.656 0.329 0.170 6 669041 1809 1982 174 0.997 0.318 0.676 3.642 0.306 0.233 7 669042 1811 1982 172 0.996 0.357 1.438 9.263 0.377 0.087 8 669051 1824 1980 157 0.994 0.298 0.816 5.032 0.287 0.282 9 669052 1802 1977 176 0.997 0.277 0.509 3.298 0.273 0.184 10 669061 1815 1982 168 0.997 0.300 0.531 3.933 0.271 0.278 11 669062 1813 1982 170 0.999 0.309 0.053 3.025 0.324 0.179 12 669071 1828 1982 155 0.994 0.351 0.648 3.462 0.336 0.222 13 669072 1823 1982 160 0.999 0.285 0.579 4.920 0.298 0.122 14 669091 1909 1982 74 1.000 0.306 1.084 4.118 0.350 -0.182 15 669092 1827 1982 156 0.995 0.319 0.717 3.852 0.310 0.228 16 669101 1871 1982 112 1.000 0.301 0.207 3.283 0.337 0.073 17 669102 1859 1982 124 0.999 0.315 0.739 3.824 0.324 0.160 18 669111 1882 1982 101 0.990 0.388 0.861 4.293 0.391 0.139 19 669112 1844 1982 139 0.998 0.343 0.691 3.604 0.338 0.185 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 669121 1874 1982 109 0.999 0.351 0.361 2.659 0.402 -0.046 21 669122 1928 1982 55 0.998 0.353 1.574 6.498 0.380 -0.148 22 669131 1863 1981 119 0.996 0.344 0.596 4.221 0.392 -0.064 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 131 0.997 0.326 0.673 4.290 0.339 0.103 STANDARD DEVIATION 40 0.002 0.035 0.495 1.731 0.039 0.149 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 140 0.998 0.316 0.634 3.733 0.336 0.149 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 48 0.003 0.051 0.455 1.011 0.069 0.258 MINIMUM VALUE 24 0.990 0.277 -0.408 2.659 0.271 -0.182 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 112 0.996 0.300 0.361 3.283 0.310 -0.035 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 160 0.999 0.351 0.816 4.293 0.379 0.222 MAXIMUM VALUE 176 1.000 0.390 1.834 9.263 0.402 0.333 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 230 0.208 0.144 0.009 0.109 3.708 -0.170 0.784 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.170 SERIES 669051 AND 669112 137 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.784 SERIES 669121 AND 669122 55 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 99.57 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 59.65 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 45. 91. 171. 190. RBAR 0.175 0.167 0.186 0.175 SDEV 0.210 0.225 0.201 0.195 SERR 0.031 0.024 0.015 0.014 EPS 0.751 0.782 0.818 0.814 NSS 14.2 17.9 19.7 20.7 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1802 1982 181 0.977 0.162 0.374 3.800 0.192 -0.058 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.256 0.157 0.099 65 116 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.24 0.71 1.00 1.06 1.77 16.11 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.07 0.00 0.86 0.93 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.058 -0.067 0.027 -0.069 -0.125 0.112 0.014 0.080 -0.134 -0.113 PACF -0.058 -0.071 0.019 -0.072 -0.132 0.088 0.011 0.097 -0.150 -0.126 95% C.L. 0.149 0.149 0.150 0.150 0.151 0.153 0.155 0.155 0.156 0.158 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.092 -0.039 -0.024 -0.072 -0.101 0.114 -0.016 0.170 -0.148 -0.131 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 -0.092 2 -0.096 -0.048 3 -0.098 -0.051 -0.033 4 -0.101 -0.055 -0.041 -0.080 5 -0.110 -0.060 -0.048 -0.092 -0.121 6 -0.100 -0.052 -0.043 -0.087 -0.111 0.085 7 -0.099 -0.054 -0.045 -0.088 -0.112 0.084 -0.012 8 -0.097 -0.068 -0.026 -0.073 -0.104 0.093 0.005 0.170 9 -0.074 -0.067 -0.013 -0.087 -0.114 0.089 -0.005 0.157 -0.136 10 -0.094 -0.045 -0.014 -0.074 -0.131 0.077 -0.006 0.147 -0.146 -0.145 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1312.26 1312.72 1314.30 1316.10 1316.94 1316.29 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1316.98 1318.95 1315.63 1314.26 1312.43 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 0 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 669012 0 0.001 2 669021 0 0.015 3 669022 0 0.000 4 669031 0 0.112 5 669032 0 0.029 6 669041 0 0.054 7 669042 0 0.008 8 669051 0 0.092 9 669052 0 0.034 10 669061 0 0.078 11 669062 0 0.032 12 669071 0 0.050 13 669072 0 0.015 14 669091 0 0.034 15 669092 0 0.053 16 669101 0 0.005 17 669102 0 0.026 18 669111 0 0.019 19 669112 0 0.034 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 669121 0 0.002 21 669122 0 0.022 22 669131 0 0.004 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 0 0.033 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.030 MEDIAN 0 0.027 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.042 MINIMUM VALUE 0 0.000 LOWER HINGE 0 0.008 UPPER HINGE 0 0.050 MAXIMUM VALUE 0 0.112 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 669012 1866 1982 117 1.000 0.281 0.353 3.200 0.335 -0.035 2 669021 1959 1982 24 1.000 0.291 -0.408 3.263 0.387 -0.119 3 669022 1855 1982 128 1.000 0.302 0.315 2.870 0.330 -0.009 4 669031 1841 1982 142 1.000 0.390 0.620 3.470 0.377 0.333 5 669032 1835 1982 148 1.000 0.385 1.834 8.656 0.328 0.170 6 669041 1809 1982 174 1.000 0.318 0.676 3.642 0.305 0.233 7 669042 1811 1982 172 1.000 0.357 1.438 9.263 0.375 0.087 8 669051 1824 1980 157 1.000 0.298 0.816 5.032 0.285 0.282 9 669052 1802 1977 176 1.000 0.277 0.509 3.298 0.273 0.184 10 669061 1815 1982 168 1.000 0.300 0.531 3.933 0.270 0.278 11 669062 1813 1982 170 1.000 0.309 0.053 3.025 0.324 0.179 12 669071 1828 1982 155 1.000 0.351 0.648 3.462 0.334 0.222 13 669072 1823 1982 160 1.000 0.285 0.579 4.920 0.298 0.122 14 669091 1909 1982 74 1.000 0.306 1.084 4.118 0.350 -0.182 15 669092 1827 1982 156 1.000 0.319 0.717 3.852 0.308 0.228 16 669101 1871 1982 112 1.000 0.301 0.207 3.283 0.336 0.073 17 669102 1859 1982 124 1.000 0.315 0.739 3.824 0.324 0.160 18 669111 1882 1982 101 1.000 0.388 0.861 4.293 0.387 0.139 19 669112 1844 1982 139 1.000 0.343 0.691 3.604 0.337 0.185 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 669121 1874 1982 109 1.000 0.351 0.361 2.659 0.402 -0.046 21 669122 1928 1982 55 1.000 0.353 1.574 6.498 0.379 -0.148 22 669131 1863 1981 119 1.000 0.344 0.596 4.221 0.390 -0.064 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 131 1.000 0.326 0.673 4.290 0.338 0.103 STANDARD DEVIATION 40 0.000 0.035 0.495 1.731 0.039 0.149 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 140 1.000 0.316 0.634 3.733 0.334 0.149 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 48 0.000 0.051 0.455 1.011 0.069 0.258 MINIMUM VALUE 24 1.000 0.277 -0.408 2.659 0.270 -0.182 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 112 1.000 0.300 0.361 3.283 0.308 -0.035 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 160 1.000 0.351 0.816 4.293 0.377 0.222 MAXIMUM VALUE 176 1.000 0.390 1.834 9.263 0.402 0.333 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 230 0.208 0.144 0.009 0.109 3.708 -0.170 0.784 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.170 SERIES 669051 AND 669112 137 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.784 SERIES 669121 AND 669122 55 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 99.57 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 59.65 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 45. 91. 171. 190. RBAR 0.175 0.167 0.186 0.175 SDEV 0.210 0.225 0.201 0.195 SERR 0.031 0.024 0.015 0.014 EPS 0.751 0.782 0.818 0.814 NSS 14.2 17.9 19.7 20.7 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1802 1982 181 0.980 0.162 0.375 3.798 0.191 -0.059 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.256 0.158 0.098 63 118 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.28 0.73 1.00 1.07 1.80 22.41 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.08 0.00 0.86 0.94 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.059 -0.067 0.028 -0.069 -0.125 0.111 0.013 0.079 -0.133 -0.112 PACF -0.059 -0.071 0.020 -0.072 -0.132 0.087 0.011 0.096 -0.149 -0.125 95% C.L. 0.149 0.149 0.150 0.150 0.151 0.153 0.155 0.155 0.156 0.158 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1802 1982 181 0.980 0.162 0.375 3.798 0.191 -0.059 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.059 -0.067 0.028 -0.069 -0.125 0.111 0.013 0.079 -0.133 -0.112 PACF -0.059 -0.071 0.020 -0.072 -0.132 0.087 0.011 0.096 -0.149 -0.125 95% C.L. 0.149 0.149 0.150 0.150 0.151 0.153 0.155 0.155 0.156 0.158 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.24 MINUTES