RUN: SWIT001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWIT131E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWIT131E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 588 1 Bisse de Saxon VS WIDTH_EARLY PCAB - 588 2 Switzerland Norway spruce 1570 4607-711 1856 1979 - 588 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES --- NO GAPS IN DATA FOUND --- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 588011 1879 1979 101 1.339 0.448 -0.058 3.093 0.189 0.740 2 588012 1879 1979 101 1.271 0.352 -0.146 3.805 0.140 0.770 3 588021 1889 1979 91 1.171 0.481 1.199 5.481 0.223 0.674 4 588022 1872 1979 108 1.023 0.512 0.916 3.502 0.219 0.838 5 588031 1873 1979 107 1.085 0.347 0.422 3.552 0.214 0.633 6 588032 1878 1979 102 1.063 0.373 0.083 2.873 0.203 0.761 7 588041 1862 1979 118 0.956 0.410 0.517 2.397 0.224 0.854 8 588042 1880 1979 100 1.225 0.364 0.601 3.506 0.194 0.658 9 588051 1899 1979 81 1.040 0.241 -0.205 3.811 0.223 0.360 10 588052 1873 1979 107 0.889 0.309 1.028 5.215 0.203 0.739 11 588061 1870 1979 110 1.375 0.358 -0.356 3.142 0.184 0.656 12 588062 1876 1979 104 1.095 0.382 0.769 4.039 0.160 0.839 13 588071 1876 1979 104 1.053 0.349 0.654 4.462 0.207 0.654 14 588072 1873 1979 107 1.078 0.283 0.063 2.832 0.183 0.680 15 588081 1877 1979 103 1.096 0.287 0.462 4.002 0.170 0.695 16 588082 1883 1979 97 1.190 0.248 0.152 4.035 0.163 0.511 17 588091 1882 1979 98 1.239 0.374 0.237 3.475 0.264 0.514 18 588092 1868 1979 112 1.220 0.378 0.993 5.714 0.218 0.609 19 588101 1871 1979 109 1.195 0.359 -0.093 2.220 0.120 0.871 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 588102 1889 1979 91 1.402 0.599 0.028 1.854 0.142 0.909 21 588111 1882 1979 98 1.443 0.421 0.005 2.546 0.184 0.754 22 588112 1876 1979 104 1.362 0.446 0.047 2.241 0.177 0.796 23 588121 1861 1979 119 0.821 0.436 0.364 2.471 0.241 0.844 24 588122 1875 1979 105 0.896 0.506 0.638 2.644 0.251 0.907 25 588131 1873 1979 107 0.940 0.321 0.089 3.159 0.199 0.766 26 588132 1873 1979 107 0.932 0.243 -0.139 3.850 0.184 0.660 27 588141 1876 1979 104 1.158 0.324 0.581 3.848 0.189 0.679 28 588142 1865 1979 115 1.013 0.349 0.685 3.275 0.197 0.778 29 588151 1867 1979 113 1.040 0.401 -0.007 2.471 0.249 0.757 30 588152 1856 1979 124 0.868 0.409 0.932 3.610 0.227 0.819 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 30 FROM 1856 TO 1979 124 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 105 1.116 0.377 0.349 3.438 0.198 0.724 STANDARD DEVIATION 8 0.168 0.083 0.425 0.948 0.034 0.123 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 104 1.090 0.368 0.300 3.489 0.198 0.747 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 8 0.212 0.097 0.649 1.206 0.039 0.161 MINIMUM VALUE 81 0.821 0.241 -0.356 1.854 0.120 0.360 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 101 1.013 0.324 0.005 2.644 0.183 0.658 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 109 1.225 0.421 0.654 3.850 0.223 0.819 MAXIMUM VALUE 124 1.443 0.599 1.199 5.714 0.264 0.909 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 435 0.447 0.235 0.011 -0.959 4.301 -0.504 0.911 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.504 SERIES 588041 AND 588112 104 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.911 SERIES 588121 AND 588122 105 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 80.71 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1910. 1935. CORR 351. 435. RBAR 0.385 0.367 SDEV 0.283 0.250 SERR 0.015 0.012 EPS 0.949 0.946 NSS 29.6 30.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1856 1979 124 1.123 0.267 -0.348 3.146 0.150 0.706 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.102 0.043 0.259 44 80 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.20 0.43 1.00 1.08 1.50 3.73 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.08 0.00 0.88 0.96 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 104. 8. 81. 101. 109. 124. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.700 0.556 0.477 0.434 0.362 0.326 0.299 0.301 0.226 0.201 PACF 0.700 0.129 0.095 0.088 -0.020 0.042 0.031 0.073 -0.096 0.022 95% C.L. 0.180 0.253 0.290 0.314 0.333 0.345 0.355 0.363 0.371 0.375 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.538 0.597 0.171 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 588011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01001573 1.84951484 2 588012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00847688 1.70311284 3 588021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00989489 1.62593412 4 588022 1 1.74016941 0.02335699 0.00000000 0.39606866 5 588031 1 0.69969833 0.03726118 0.00000000 0.91618609 6 588032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00874109 1.51340127 7 588041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00766141 1.41195571 8 588042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00655878 1.55621815 9 588051 1 0.46488324 0.21715689 0.00000000 1.01633668 10 588052 1 1.02490723 0.04622100 0.00000000 0.68812174 11 588061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00315925 1.54997492 12 588062 1 1.28586102 0.05786758 0.00000000 0.88797355 13 588071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00507170 1.31914866 14 588072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00562178 1.38189387 15 588081 1 0.82207823 0.03554871 0.00000000 0.88074636 16 588082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00057017 1.16195881 17 588091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00043080 1.21775723 18 588092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00540626 1.52509654 19 588101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00515161 1.47838426 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 588102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01677544 2.17331862 21 588111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00099178 1.39376390 22 588112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00741203 0.97259897 23 588121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01053824 1.45355511 24 588122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01488731 1.68474174 25 588131 1 0.73106045 0.10083733 0.00000000 0.87523085 26 588132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00422256 1.15979373 27 588141 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00698080 1.52437639 28 588142 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00467379 1.28386271 29 588151 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00968619 1.59220135 30 588152 1 1.16774786 0.03066825 0.00000000 0.57251304 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 588011 1879 1979 101 0.995 0.267 0.220 3.184 0.187 0.638 2 588012 1879 1979 101 0.997 0.203 -0.093 3.840 0.139 0.614 3 588021 1889 1979 91 0.998 0.327 0.881 4.828 0.220 0.615 4 588022 1872 1979 108 1.001 0.281 0.235 3.356 0.215 0.612 5 588031 1873 1979 107 1.000 0.284 0.274 3.242 0.211 0.572 6 588032 1878 1979 102 0.998 0.267 -0.027 3.547 0.200 0.636 7 588041 1862 1979 118 0.998 0.317 0.074 2.320 0.223 0.645 8 588042 1880 1979 100 0.999 0.245 0.068 3.390 0.192 0.447 9 588051 1899 1979 81 1.000 0.226 -0.166 4.125 0.221 0.325 10 588052 1873 1979 107 1.000 0.215 -0.776 5.146 0.201 0.368 11 588061 1870 1979 110 1.000 0.257 -0.133 3.119 0.182 0.625 12 588062 1876 1979 104 1.000 0.251 0.354 4.093 0.158 0.716 13 588071 1876 1979 104 0.999 0.293 0.273 3.058 0.205 0.616 14 588072 1873 1979 107 1.000 0.210 -0.368 3.171 0.182 0.496 15 588081 1877 1979 103 1.000 0.186 -0.609 4.214 0.168 0.438 16 588082 1883 1979 97 1.000 0.208 0.124 4.158 0.162 0.499 17 588091 1882 1979 98 1.000 0.302 0.226 3.460 0.261 0.508 18 588092 1868 1979 112 1.000 0.266 0.428 3.844 0.216 0.488 19 588101 1871 1979 109 0.996 0.270 0.321 2.553 0.119 0.851 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 588102 1889 1979 91 0.983 0.266 0.274 2.252 0.140 0.763 21 588111 1882 1979 98 1.000 0.291 0.009 2.655 0.183 0.744 22 588112 1876 1979 104 0.996 0.278 0.157 2.888 0.175 0.723 23 588121 1861 1979 119 0.986 0.283 -0.047 2.876 0.238 0.461 24 588122 1875 1979 105 1.050 0.371 1.818 8.676 0.246 0.408 25 588131 1873 1979 107 1.000 0.311 -0.301 2.864 0.197 0.726 26 588132 1873 1979 107 0.999 0.224 -0.399 3.588 0.183 0.521 27 588141 1876 1979 104 1.000 0.208 0.031 3.543 0.186 0.378 28 588142 1865 1979 115 0.996 0.291 0.417 2.967 0.195 0.682 29 588151 1867 1979 113 0.996 0.260 -0.041 3.415 0.246 0.340 30 588152 1856 1979 124 1.000 0.350 0.769 3.800 0.225 0.597 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 105 1.000 0.267 0.133 3.606 0.196 0.568 STANDARD DEVIATION 8 0.010 0.045 0.476 1.169 0.033 0.136 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 104 1.000 0.267 0.099 3.403 0.196 0.605 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 8 0.004 0.065 0.367 0.877 0.038 0.184 MINIMUM VALUE 81 0.983 0.186 -0.776 2.252 0.119 0.325 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 101 0.997 0.226 -0.093 2.967 0.182 0.461 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 109 1.000 0.291 0.274 3.844 0.220 0.645 MAXIMUM VALUE 124 1.050 0.371 1.818 8.676 0.261 0.851 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 588011 -67 67 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 588012 -67 67 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 588021 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 588022 -67 72 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 588031 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 588032 -67 68 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 588041 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 588042 -67 67 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 588051 -67 54 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 588052 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 588061 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 588062 -67 69 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 588071 -67 69 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 588072 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 588081 -67 69 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 588082 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 588091 -67 65 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 588092 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 588101 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 588102 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 588111 -67 65 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 588112 -67 69 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 588121 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 588122 -67 70 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 588131 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 588132 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 27 588141 -67 69 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 28 588142 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 29 588151 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 30 588152 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 588011 1879 1979 101 0.996 0.222 0.479 3.557 0.187 0.457 2 588012 1879 1979 101 0.997 0.158 0.069 3.990 0.139 0.373 3 588021 1889 1979 91 0.997 0.310 0.572 4.028 0.220 0.580 4 588022 1872 1979 108 0.994 0.252 0.144 3.494 0.215 0.517 5 588031 1873 1979 107 0.993 0.246 0.197 3.230 0.211 0.432 6 588032 1878 1979 102 0.994 0.218 -0.460 3.888 0.200 0.426 7 588041 1862 1979 118 0.988 0.230 -0.322 3.426 0.222 0.371 8 588042 1880 1979 100 0.996 0.220 0.082 4.310 0.191 0.324 9 588051 1899 1979 81 0.999 0.220 -0.200 4.116 0.221 0.280 10 588052 1873 1979 107 0.998 0.205 -0.866 5.725 0.200 0.294 11 588061 1870 1979 110 0.995 0.228 -0.159 3.185 0.181 0.530 12 588062 1876 1979 104 0.993 0.178 0.170 3.469 0.157 0.464 13 588071 1876 1979 104 0.991 0.226 0.041 3.272 0.206 0.417 14 588072 1873 1979 107 0.998 0.200 -0.438 3.320 0.181 0.443 15 588081 1877 1979 103 0.999 0.178 -0.574 4.386 0.168 0.370 16 588082 1883 1979 97 0.997 0.174 -0.341 3.932 0.160 0.343 17 588091 1882 1979 98 0.994 0.267 0.118 3.503 0.262 0.383 18 588092 1868 1979 112 0.996 0.233 0.360 4.780 0.216 0.327 19 588101 1871 1979 109 0.998 0.158 0.500 3.232 0.118 0.526 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 588102 1889 1979 91 0.996 0.174 0.170 4.785 0.140 0.450 21 588111 1882 1979 98 0.994 0.218 -0.221 3.492 0.181 0.508 22 588112 1876 1979 104 0.996 0.218 -0.002 3.414 0.173 0.513 23 588121 1861 1979 119 0.999 0.278 0.063 2.980 0.238 0.349 24 588122 1875 1979 105 0.998 0.256 -0.103 3.766 0.247 0.305 25 588131 1873 1979 107 0.993 0.282 -0.376 3.022 0.196 0.657 26 588132 1873 1979 107 0.996 0.199 -0.344 3.656 0.183 0.364 27 588141 1876 1979 104 0.999 0.201 -0.043 3.585 0.186 0.330 28 588142 1865 1979 115 0.995 0.214 0.232 3.317 0.195 0.425 29 588151 1867 1979 113 0.998 0.252 0.016 3.742 0.246 0.271 30 588152 1856 1979 124 0.989 0.280 0.619 3.626 0.224 0.464 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 105 0.996 0.223 -0.021 3.741 0.196 0.416 STANDARD DEVIATION 8 0.003 0.038 0.352 0.594 0.034 0.094 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 104 0.996 0.220 0.029 3.571 0.195 0.421 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 8 0.004 0.052 0.492 0.670 0.039 0.120 MINIMUM VALUE 81 0.988 0.158 -0.866 2.980 0.118 0.271 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 101 0.994 0.200 -0.322 3.320 0.181 0.343 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 109 0.998 0.252 0.170 3.990 0.220 0.464 MAXIMUM VALUE 124 0.999 0.310 0.619 5.725 0.262 0.657 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 435 0.431 0.136 0.007 -0.313 2.963 0.023 0.786 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.023 SERIES 588101 AND 588152 109 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.786 SERIES 588141 AND 588142 104 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 80.71 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1910. 1935. CORR 351. 435. RBAR 0.442 0.425 SDEV 0.173 0.190 SERR 0.009 0.009 EPS 0.959 0.957 NSS 29.6 30.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1856 1979 124 0.984 0.150 -0.840 5.420 0.145 0.300 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.302 0.107 0.056 41 83 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.13 0.25 1.00 1.06 1.31 2.48 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.08 0.00 0.88 0.96 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.297 0.142 -0.097 0.061 -0.079 0.034 -0.146 0.070 -0.051 -0.067 PACF 0.297 0.059 -0.169 0.141 -0.118 0.055 -0.143 0.135 -0.068 -0.132 95% C.L. 0.180 0.195 0.198 0.200 0.200 0.201 0.201 0.205 0.206 0.206 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.091 0.297 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.295 0.156 -0.086 0.108 -0.085 0.040 -0.203 0.027 -0.081 -0.101 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.295 2 0.273 0.075 3 0.285 0.121 -0.166 4 0.316 0.098 -0.219 0.185 5 0.344 0.065 -0.204 0.233 -0.154 6 0.354 0.050 -0.190 0.229 -0.176 0.065 7 0.367 0.015 -0.145 0.191 -0.166 0.135 -0.199 8 0.390 -0.001 -0.126 0.169 -0.150 0.133 -0.241 0.115 9 0.396 -0.013 -0.119 0.162 -0.141 0.127 -0.241 0.135 -0.052 10 0.386 0.013 -0.165 0.186 -0.168 0.158 -0.264 0.133 0.025 -0.194 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 947.22 937.94 939.23 937.77 935.46 934.49 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 935.97 932.98 933.33 934.99 932.25 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.295 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 8.70 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 109.53 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.295 0.087 0.026 0.008 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 588011 1 0.214 0.459 2 588012 1 0.142 0.376 3 588021 1 0.373 0.610 4 588022 1 0.282 0.517 5 588031 1 0.189 0.434 6 588032 1 0.192 0.431 7 588041 1 0.143 0.373 8 588042 1 0.106 0.326 9 588051 1 0.098 0.281 10 588052 1 0.117 0.295 11 588061 1 0.286 0.532 12 588062 1 0.228 0.470 13 588071 1 0.187 0.431 14 588072 1 0.201 0.446 15 588081 1 0.138 0.371 16 588082 1 0.125 0.353 17 588091 1 0.156 0.386 18 588092 1 0.109 0.329 19 588101 1 0.320 0.554 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 588102 1 0.217 0.451 21 588111 1 0.324 0.513 22 588112 1 0.272 0.513 23 588121 1 0.131 0.361 24 588122 1 0.099 0.314 25 588131 1 0.434 0.658 26 588132 1 0.133 0.364 27 588141 1 0.109 0.330 28 588142 1 0.182 0.426 29 588151 1 0.133 0.274 30 588152 1 0.284 0.464 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.197 0.421 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.088 0.096 MEDIAN 1 0.185 0.428 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.141 0.117 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.098 0.274 LOWER HINGE 1 0.131 0.353 UPPER HINGE 1 0.272 0.470 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.434 0.658 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 588011 1879 1979 101 1.000 0.197 0.123 3.447 0.225 -0.033 2 588012 1879 1979 101 1.000 0.147 -0.114 3.550 0.162 -0.008 3 588021 1889 1979 91 1.000 0.241 0.181 3.324 0.277 -0.048 4 588022 1872 1979 108 1.000 0.216 0.209 3.348 0.260 -0.072 5 588031 1873 1979 107 1.000 0.222 0.197 3.367 0.250 -0.005 6 588032 1878 1979 102 1.000 0.197 -0.433 4.254 0.241 -0.033 7 588041 1862 1979 118 1.000 0.214 -0.299 4.143 0.248 -0.025 8 588042 1880 1979 100 1.000 0.208 0.288 4.870 0.214 -0.005 9 588051 1899 1979 81 1.000 0.211 -0.395 4.689 0.252 -0.040 10 588052 1873 1979 107 1.000 0.196 -0.933 6.425 0.227 -0.053 11 588061 1870 1979 110 1.000 0.193 -0.187 3.985 0.227 -0.029 12 588062 1876 1979 104 1.000 0.157 -0.001 2.858 0.178 0.051 13 588071 1876 1979 104 1.000 0.203 0.028 3.090 0.233 0.007 14 588072 1873 1979 107 1.000 0.178 -0.487 3.208 0.211 0.015 15 588081 1877 1979 103 1.000 0.165 -0.329 4.263 0.187 -0.004 16 588082 1883 1979 97 1.000 0.163 -0.323 4.008 0.183 -0.004 17 588091 1882 1979 98 1.000 0.246 0.191 3.125 0.299 -0.034 18 588092 1868 1979 112 1.000 0.220 0.600 6.535 0.246 0.000 19 588101 1871 1979 109 1.000 0.130 0.457 2.706 0.139 0.057 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 588102 1889 1979 91 1.000 0.155 0.211 4.323 0.167 0.060 21 588111 1882 1979 98 1.000 0.187 -0.202 3.475 0.226 -0.148 22 588112 1876 1979 104 1.000 0.187 0.286 3.426 0.213 -0.055 23 588121 1861 1979 119 1.000 0.259 0.130 3.534 0.275 0.016 24 588122 1875 1979 105 1.000 0.243 -0.056 4.223 0.264 0.007 25 588131 1873 1979 107 1.000 0.213 -0.350 3.651 0.242 0.023 26 588132 1873 1979 107 1.000 0.186 -0.324 3.716 0.204 -0.008 27 588141 1876 1979 104 1.000 0.189 0.001 3.898 0.211 0.004 28 588142 1865 1979 115 1.000 0.194 0.284 3.317 0.223 0.014 29 588151 1867 1979 113 1.000 0.242 0.084 4.066 0.280 -0.066 30 588152 1856 1979 124 1.000 0.248 0.815 4.148 0.278 -0.136 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 105 1.000 0.200 -0.012 3.899 0.228 -0.018 STANDARD DEVIATION 8 0.000 0.032 0.361 0.872 0.039 0.048 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 104 1.000 0.197 0.014 3.684 0.227 -0.007 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 8 0.000 0.035 0.532 0.875 0.041 0.046 MINIMUM VALUE 81 1.000 0.130 -0.933 2.706 0.139 -0.148 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 101 1.000 0.186 -0.323 3.348 0.211 -0.040 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 109 1.000 0.220 0.209 4.223 0.252 0.007 MAXIMUM VALUE 124 1.000 0.259 0.815 6.535 0.299 0.060 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 435 0.488 0.112 0.005 -0.062 2.692 0.188 0.806 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.188 SERIES 588101 AND 588152 109 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.806 SERIES 588141 AND 588142 104 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 80.71 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1910. 1935. CORR 351. 435. RBAR 0.440 0.456 SDEV 0.149 0.151 SERR 0.008 0.007 EPS 0.959 0.962 NSS 29.6 30.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1856 1979 124 0.992 0.141 -0.621 4.854 0.171 -0.122 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.194 0.072 0.067 42 82 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.13 0.41 1.01 1.06 1.47 2.41 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.06 0.00 0.89 0.95 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.121 0.073 -0.216 0.134 -0.146 0.147 -0.225 0.165 -0.062 -0.001 PACF -0.121 0.059 -0.204 0.090 -0.110 0.080 -0.172 0.087 0.021 -0.120 95% C.L. 0.180 0.182 0.183 0.191 0.194 0.198 0.201 0.209 0.213 0.214 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.007 0.034 -0.198 0.095 -0.116 0.106 -0.195 0.136 -0.044 -0.030 PACF 0.007 0.034 -0.198 0.102 -0.113 0.074 -0.170 0.110 -0.006 -0.130 95% C.L. 0.180 0.180 0.180 0.187 0.188 0.191 0.192 0.199 0.202 0.202 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.001 0.007 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1856 1979 124 0.992 0.147 -0.816 5.298 0.142 0.298 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.296 0.070 -0.142 0.022 -0.082 0.030 -0.140 0.066 -0.040 -0.081 PACF 0.296 -0.019 -0.172 0.128 -0.125 0.063 -0.154 0.139 -0.078 -0.140 95% C.L. 0.180 0.195 0.195 0.199 0.199 0.200 0.200 0.203 0.204 0.204 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.088 0.296 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.25 MINUTES