RUN: SWIT001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWIT132E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWIT132E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 591 1 Les Arbepins VS WIDTH_EARLY PISY - 591 2 Switzerland Scots pine, Scotch pine 840 4608-710 1840 1979 - 591 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 2 591012 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1971 1971 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 591021 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1973 1974 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 591061 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1973 1974 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 591062 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1928 1928 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 591091 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1976 1976 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 21 591112 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1971 1972 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 23 591122 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1921 1921 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 591011 1867 1971 105 0.765 0.310 0.432 2.933 0.311 0.610 2 591012 1864 1971 108 0.732 0.291 0.307 2.716 0.316 0.583 3 591021 1853 1974 122 0.553 0.268 0.321 3.172 0.332 0.649 4 591022 1856 1974 119 0.507 0.310 2.187 8.977 0.332 0.594 5 591031 1883 1979 97 0.674 0.326 0.808 4.005 0.280 0.776 6 591032 1878 1979 102 0.607 0.315 0.462 2.899 0.290 0.793 7 591041 1911 1979 69 0.932 0.560 1.498 4.904 0.317 0.796 8 591042 1889 1979 91 0.575 0.350 1.033 3.923 0.341 0.802 9 591051 1880 1979 100 0.651 0.302 0.275 2.262 0.286 0.771 10 591052 1865 1979 115 0.532 0.255 2.166 13.995 0.354 0.519 11 591061 1865 1974 110 0.443 0.306 1.905 6.532 0.301 0.812 12 591062 1863 1973 111 0.405 0.281 2.211 9.272 0.290 0.808 13 591071 1853 1978 126 0.622 0.299 1.013 5.087 0.352 0.550 14 591072 1846 1974 129 0.661 0.337 1.495 6.234 0.344 0.631 15 591081 1854 1979 126 0.526 0.242 1.216 5.095 0.334 0.644 16 591082 1868 1979 112 0.588 0.216 0.574 3.344 0.315 0.501 17 591091 1846 1979 134 0.356 0.214 0.492 2.430 0.484 0.629 18 591101 1879 1971 93 0.628 0.351 0.762 2.883 0.382 0.707 19 591102 1876 1972 97 0.533 0.304 0.376 2.309 0.349 0.739 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 591111 1840 1964 125 0.543 0.485 2.283 8.623 0.329 0.856 21 591112 1852 1972 121 0.513 0.317 0.933 3.487 0.326 0.790 22 591121 1865 1979 115 0.619 0.276 0.920 4.520 0.337 0.577 23 591122 1882 1979 98 0.540 0.201 0.244 2.805 0.260 0.636 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 23 FROM 1840 TO 1979 140 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 109 0.587 0.309 1.040 4.887 0.329 0.686 STANDARD DEVIATION 15 0.122 0.080 0.700 2.915 0.044 0.108 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 110 0.575 0.304 0.920 3.923 0.329 0.649 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 21 0.110 0.050 1.050 2.773 0.037 0.189 MINIMUM VALUE 69 0.356 0.201 0.244 2.262 0.260 0.501 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 98 0.529 0.272 0.447 2.891 0.306 0.602 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 119 0.639 0.322 1.497 5.664 0.342 0.791 MAXIMUM VALUE 133 0.932 0.560 2.283 13.995 0.484 0.856 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 253 0.369 0.252 0.016 -0.167 2.700 -0.389 0.926 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.389 SERIES 591112 AND 591122 91 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.926 SERIES 591061 AND 591062 109 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 70.22 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 105. 231. 120. RBAR 0.403 0.429 0.468 SDEV 0.311 0.337 0.250 SERR 0.030 0.022 0.023 EPS 0.935 0.945 0.952 NSS 21.4 22.8 22.5 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1840 1979 140 0.650 0.381 3.070 14.771 0.239 0.806 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.054 0.017 0.245 36 104 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.27 0.57 1.01 1.14 1.71 6.08 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.07 0.00 0.85 0.93 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 111. 22. 69. 99. 122. 134. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.801 0.619 0.449 0.390 0.390 0.356 0.254 0.222 0.170 0.187 PACF 0.801 -0.061 -0.081 0.201 0.134 -0.098 -0.162 0.220 -0.083 0.042 95% C.L. 0.169 0.255 0.295 0.314 0.328 0.341 0.351 0.356 0.360 0.362 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.751 0.866 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 591011 1 0.77042979 0.10061040 0.00000000 0.69591868 2 591012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00294332 0.88839632 3 591021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00479136 0.83892012 4 591022 1 1.38784790 0.11347299 0.00000000 0.41008726 5 591031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00382785 0.86127579 6 591032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00659482 0.94629973 7 591041 1 2.20266199 0.17410634 0.00000000 0.76461178 8 591042 1 1.09133708 0.05310537 0.00000000 0.35725477 9 591051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00713711 1.01102424 10 591052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00141087 0.61417848 11 591061 1 1.24818599 0.06743942 0.00000000 0.27510387 12 591062 1 1.24662757 0.07986944 0.00000000 0.26815164 13 591071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00064540 0.66336381 14 591072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00161975 0.55587935 15 591081 1 0.40457040 0.08337410 0.00000000 0.48942214 16 591082 1 0.47990713 0.13540134 0.00000000 0.55821639 17 591091 1 0.42976815 0.12641104 0.00000000 0.32991585 18 591101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00254394 0.74730712 19 591102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00400260 0.72932345 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 591111 1 2.05364680 0.06130422 0.00000000 0.28329858 21 591112 1 0.97781360 0.02767159 0.00000000 0.22687332 22 591121 1 0.79193687 0.08263478 0.00000000 0.53884888 23 591122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00060830 0.50489986 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 591011 1867 1971 105 0.999 0.368 0.302 3.398 0.307 0.549 2 591012 1864 1971 108 1.000 0.387 0.334 2.738 0.311 0.579 3 591021 1853 1974 122 0.985 0.431 0.190 3.218 0.335 0.629 4 591022 1856 1974 119 1.000 0.396 0.087 3.071 0.329 0.518 5 591031 1883 1979 97 0.994 0.473 1.175 5.014 0.278 0.769 6 591032 1878 1979 102 0.985 0.446 1.511 7.502 0.288 0.709 7 591041 1911 1979 69 1.001 0.498 1.976 9.623 0.311 0.699 8 591042 1889 1979 91 1.000 0.457 0.494 3.034 0.336 0.664 9 591051 1880 1979 100 0.992 0.350 0.770 4.713 0.284 0.584 10 591052 1865 1979 115 1.000 0.457 1.475 8.816 0.351 0.534 11 591061 1865 1974 110 0.999 0.361 0.263 3.528 0.301 0.556 12 591062 1863 1973 111 0.998 0.369 0.120 3.213 0.285 0.580 13 591071 1853 1978 126 1.000 0.479 1.012 5.329 0.349 0.561 14 591072 1846 1974 129 1.001 0.517 1.867 8.550 0.341 0.591 15 591081 1854 1979 126 1.000 0.449 1.474 6.651 0.332 0.625 16 591082 1868 1979 112 1.000 0.343 0.355 3.213 0.313 0.459 17 591091 1846 1979 134 1.000 0.604 0.597 2.705 0.495 0.631 18 591101 1879 1971 93 0.996 0.533 0.662 2.739 0.378 0.677 19 591102 1876 1972 97 0.987 0.534 0.531 2.559 0.345 0.700 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 591111 1840 1964 125 0.996 0.433 0.454 3.705 0.327 0.627 21 591112 1852 1972 121 0.995 0.520 1.470 7.201 0.332 0.657 22 591121 1865 1979 115 1.000 0.376 0.221 2.859 0.334 0.445 23 591122 1882 1979 98 1.000 0.382 0.212 3.194 0.273 0.645 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 110 0.997 0.442 0.763 4.634 0.328 0.608 STANDARD DEVIATION 15 0.005 0.071 0.598 2.260 0.045 0.080 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 111 1.000 0.446 0.531 3.398 0.329 0.625 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 22 0.005 0.110 1.040 2.937 0.035 0.102 MINIMUM VALUE 69 0.985 0.343 0.087 2.559 0.273 0.445 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 99 0.995 0.379 0.282 3.052 0.304 0.559 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 121 1.000 0.489 1.322 5.990 0.338 0.661 MAXIMUM VALUE 134 1.001 0.604 1.976 9.623 0.495 0.769 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 591011 -67 70 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 591012 -67 72 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 591021 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 591022 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 591031 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 591032 -67 68 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 591041 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 591042 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 591051 -67 67 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 591052 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 591061 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 591062 -67 74 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 591071 -67 84 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 591072 -67 86 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 591081 -67 84 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 591082 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 591091 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 591101 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 591102 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 591111 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 591112 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 591121 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 591122 -67 65 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 591011 1867 1971 105 0.989 0.313 -0.011 3.491 0.306 0.388 2 591012 1864 1971 108 0.994 0.364 0.301 2.997 0.309 0.537 3 591021 1853 1974 122 0.980 0.365 -0.156 3.083 0.334 0.463 4 591022 1856 1974 119 0.992 0.359 0.189 3.381 0.328 0.429 5 591031 1883 1979 97 0.990 0.338 0.445 3.856 0.276 0.538 6 591032 1878 1979 102 0.992 0.381 0.806 4.804 0.288 0.614 7 591041 1911 1979 69 0.997 0.369 0.856 6.309 0.311 0.515 8 591042 1889 1979 91 0.989 0.384 0.386 3.163 0.337 0.492 9 591051 1880 1979 100 0.997 0.326 0.496 3.967 0.283 0.468 10 591052 1865 1979 115 0.992 0.417 1.108 7.377 0.351 0.482 11 591061 1865 1974 110 0.998 0.358 0.294 3.586 0.301 0.545 12 591062 1863 1973 111 0.994 0.355 0.172 3.303 0.284 0.544 13 591071 1853 1978 126 0.978 0.382 0.483 4.086 0.349 0.437 14 591072 1846 1974 129 0.986 0.389 0.795 4.492 0.341 0.450 15 591081 1854 1979 126 0.995 0.409 1.136 5.789 0.332 0.560 16 591082 1868 1979 112 0.996 0.316 0.181 3.224 0.313 0.379 17 591091 1846 1979 134 0.983 0.536 0.363 2.613 0.494 0.501 18 591101 1879 1971 93 0.992 0.382 0.282 2.805 0.375 0.290 19 591102 1876 1972 97 0.997 0.415 0.508 3.571 0.344 0.506 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 591111 1840 1964 125 0.982 0.351 0.479 4.260 0.323 0.460 21 591112 1852 1972 121 0.971 0.360 0.992 6.161 0.329 0.423 22 591121 1865 1979 115 0.993 0.352 0.177 2.988 0.334 0.353 23 591122 1882 1979 98 0.993 0.348 -0.011 2.660 0.273 0.596 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 110 0.990 0.373 0.447 3.999 0.327 0.477 STANDARD DEVIATION 15 0.007 0.045 0.356 1.286 0.045 0.078 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 111 0.992 0.364 0.386 3.571 0.328 0.482 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 22 0.007 0.031 0.467 1.253 0.036 0.104 MINIMUM VALUE 69 0.971 0.313 -0.156 2.613 0.273 0.290 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 99 0.988 0.352 0.185 3.123 0.303 0.433 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 121 0.995 0.383 0.652 4.376 0.339 0.537 MAXIMUM VALUE 134 0.998 0.536 1.136 7.377 0.494 0.614 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 253 0.403 0.285 0.018 -1.200 3.400 -0.342 0.855 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.342 SERIES 591052 AND 591111 100 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.855 SERIES 591031 AND 591032 97 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 70.22 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 105. 231. 120. RBAR 0.385 0.486 0.531 SDEV 0.329 0.353 0.151 SERR 0.032 0.023 0.014 EPS 0.931 0.956 0.962 NSS 21.4 22.8 22.5 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1840 1979 140 0.974 0.255 -0.361 4.355 0.237 0.497 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.386 0.160 0.102 44 96 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.18 0.53 1.00 1.08 1.61 24.58 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.07 0.00 0.87 0.94 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.494 0.309 0.022 0.058 -0.133 -0.148 -0.287 -0.148 -0.145 -0.035 PACF 0.494 0.086 -0.213 0.134 -0.209 -0.072 -0.147 0.065 -0.027 -0.009 95% C.L. 0.169 0.206 0.219 0.219 0.219 0.222 0.225 0.235 0.237 0.240 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.251 0.497 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.505 0.368 0.057 0.035 -0.179 -0.189 -0.323 -0.175 -0.147 -0.051 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.505 2 0.429 0.151 3 0.465 0.255 -0.243 4 0.479 0.241 -0.268 0.055 5 0.490 0.187 -0.219 0.152 -0.203 6 0.475 0.198 -0.235 0.165 -0.167 -0.073 7 0.464 0.172 -0.210 0.129 -0.137 0.000 -0.155 8 0.476 0.172 -0.199 0.119 -0.120 -0.014 -0.192 0.080 9 0.475 0.175 -0.199 0.121 -0.122 -0.010 -0.195 0.072 0.017 10 0.476 0.180 -0.210 0.120 -0.129 -0.003 -0.207 0.083 0.045 -0.060 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1126.20 1086.98 1085.75 1079.23 1080.81 1076.92 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1078.17 1076.78 1077.88 1079.84 1081.33 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 3 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.465 0.255 -0.243 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 31.50 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 145.99 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 3) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.465 0.472 0.095 0.052 -0.066 -0.041 -0.048 -0.017 -0.010 0.0027 0.003 0.004 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -.0001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 591011 3 0.174 0.353 0.140 -0.039 2 591012 3 0.311 0.577 -0.037 -0.077 3 591021 3 0.263 0.394 0.205 -0.029 4 591022 3 0.225 0.389 0.205 -0.133 5 591031 3 0.316 0.521 0.130 -0.148 6 591032 3 0.470 0.591 0.304 -0.350 7 591041 3 0.363 0.657 -0.212 -0.126 8 591042 3 0.318 0.653 -0.271 0.003 9 591051 3 0.386 0.460 0.374 -0.368 10 591052 3 0.328 0.535 0.134 -0.202 11 591061 3 0.307 0.528 0.075 -0.055 12 591062 3 0.329 0.478 0.166 -0.046 13 591071 3 0.231 0.381 0.216 -0.099 14 591072 3 0.282 0.393 0.288 -0.135 15 591081 3 0.317 0.564 0.015 -0.035 16 591082 3 0.165 0.336 0.155 -0.058 17 591091 3 0.307 0.397 0.282 -0.079 18 591101 3 0.181 0.242 0.297 -0.103 19 591102 3 0.356 0.447 0.336 -0.253 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 591111 3 0.217 0.433 0.046 0.029 21 591112 3 0.236 0.396 0.223 -0.202 22 591121 3 0.194 0.294 0.261 -0.098 23 591122 3 0.420 0.556 0.252 -0.201 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 3 0.291 0.460 0.156 -0.122 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.080 0.111 0.163 0.102 MEDIAN 3 0.307 0.447 0.205 -0.099 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.100 0.155 0.169 0.124 MINIMUM VALUE 3 0.165 0.242 -0.271 -0.368 LOWER HINGE 3 0.228 0.391 0.102 -0.175 UPPER HINGE 3 0.328 0.546 0.272 -0.051 MAXIMUM VALUE 3 0.470 0.657 0.374 0.029 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 591011 1867 1971 105 1.000 0.285 -0.273 3.422 0.334 0.009 2 591012 1864 1971 108 1.000 0.304 0.063 3.087 0.360 0.011 3 591021 1853 1974 122 1.000 0.313 -0.010 3.383 0.362 0.010 4 591022 1856 1974 119 1.000 0.316 -0.039 3.113 0.373 0.013 5 591031 1883 1979 97 1.000 0.280 -0.227 4.476 0.319 0.008 6 591032 1878 1979 102 1.000 0.278 0.309 4.646 0.319 -0.015 7 591041 1911 1979 69 1.000 0.295 -0.196 4.434 0.343 0.014 8 591042 1889 1979 91 1.000 0.317 0.325 3.014 0.357 0.016 9 591051 1880 1979 100 1.000 0.256 -0.327 3.613 0.306 -0.027 10 591052 1865 1979 115 1.000 0.328 0.700 4.507 0.380 -0.047 11 591061 1865 1974 110 1.000 0.298 0.271 3.922 0.338 0.003 12 591062 1863 1973 111 1.000 0.293 0.271 3.439 0.334 0.002 13 591071 1853 1978 126 1.000 0.334 0.034 3.263 0.383 -0.005 14 591072 1846 1974 129 1.000 0.326 0.135 3.638 0.375 -0.012 15 591081 1854 1979 126 1.000 0.338 0.793 5.453 0.379 -0.001 16 591082 1868 1979 112 1.000 0.289 -0.245 2.817 0.352 0.004 17 591091 1846 1979 134 1.002 0.442 0.306 3.782 0.528 0.016 18 591101 1879 1971 93 1.000 0.348 0.300 3.061 0.393 -0.010 19 591102 1876 1972 97 1.000 0.335 0.302 3.340 0.355 0.024 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 591111 1840 1964 125 1.000 0.310 0.193 3.873 0.362 0.003 21 591112 1852 1972 121 1.000 0.314 -0.008 3.704 0.368 0.012 22 591121 1865 1979 115 1.000 0.319 0.157 3.929 0.369 0.012 23 591122 1882 1979 98 1.000 0.262 -0.112 3.475 0.311 -0.018 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 110 1.000 0.312 0.118 3.713 0.361 0.001 STANDARD DEVIATION 15 0.000 0.037 0.290 0.636 0.044 0.016 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 111 1.000 0.313 0.135 3.613 0.360 0.004 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 22 0.000 0.036 0.376 0.624 0.037 0.020 MINIMUM VALUE 69 1.000 0.256 -0.327 2.817 0.306 -0.047 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 99 1.000 0.291 -0.075 3.302 0.336 -0.008 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 121 1.000 0.327 0.301 3.926 0.374 0.012 MAXIMUM VALUE 134 1.002 0.442 0.793 5.453 0.528 0.024 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 253 0.377 0.225 0.014 -0.896 2.816 -0.213 0.749 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.213 SERIES 591052 AND 591112 108 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.749 SERIES 591071 AND 591072 122 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 70.22 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 105. 231. 120. RBAR 0.348 0.444 0.451 SDEV 0.298 0.266 0.131 SERR 0.029 0.018 0.012 EPS 0.920 0.948 0.949 NSS 21.4 22.8 22.5 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1840 1979 140 0.990 0.210 -0.928 4.462 0.237 0.084 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.273 0.117 0.108 52 88 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.20 0.43 1.01 1.06 1.49 23.22 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.08 0.00 0.85 0.94 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.083 -0.008 -0.120 0.131 -0.099 -0.027 -0.255 0.003 -0.058 0.036 PACF 0.083 -0.015 -0.118 0.154 -0.132 -0.017 -0.230 0.008 -0.049 -0.016 95% C.L. 0.169 0.170 0.170 0.173 0.175 0.177 0.177 0.187 0.187 0.188 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.018 -0.013 -0.017 0.133 -0.111 -0.018 -0.242 0.008 -0.053 0.027 PACF 0.018 -0.013 -0.017 0.133 -0.119 -0.009 -0.247 0.002 -0.039 0.019 95% C.L. 0.169 0.169 0.169 0.169 0.172 0.174 0.174 0.184 0.184 0.184 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.020 0.019 -0.013 -0.017 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1840 1979 140 0.988 0.256 -0.377 4.600 0.226 0.515 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.511 0.402 0.069 0.059 -0.195 -0.171 -0.317 -0.145 -0.151 -0.006 PACF 0.511 0.190 -0.273 0.068 -0.237 -0.036 -0.134 0.097 0.008 -0.009 95% C.L. 0.169 0.209 0.230 0.230 0.231 0.235 0.239 0.250 0.253 0.255 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.347 0.469 0.305 -0.282 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.25 MINUTES