RUN: SWIT001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWIT134E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWIT134E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 576 1 Boutieu VS WIDTH_EARLY PISY - 576 2 Switzerland Scots pine, Scotch pine 880 4608-710 1843 1979 - 576 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES --- NO GAPS IN DATA FOUND --- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 576011 1911 1979 69 1.187 0.562 1.195 4.851 0.273 0.731 2 576012 1917 1979 63 1.690 0.571 -0.212 2.709 0.348 0.402 3 576021 1899 1979 81 1.310 0.653 1.247 5.357 0.298 0.710 4 576022 1895 1979 85 0.812 0.746 2.082 6.668 0.336 0.798 5 576031 1892 1971 80 1.409 0.763 0.142 2.007 0.214 0.886 6 576032 1900 1979 80 0.951 0.466 0.631 3.090 0.236 0.813 7 576041 1903 1979 77 0.979 0.754 0.897 2.863 0.331 0.787 8 576042 1900 1979 80 0.798 0.577 0.723 2.074 0.329 0.896 9 576051 1907 1979 73 1.158 0.919 1.459 3.744 0.233 0.907 10 576052 1899 1979 81 1.101 0.801 1.208 3.276 0.216 0.895 11 576061 1901 1979 79 0.876 0.639 1.134 3.745 0.276 0.829 12 576062 1899 1979 81 0.820 0.448 0.739 2.540 0.217 0.878 13 576071 1913 1979 67 1.253 0.705 1.041 4.767 0.210 0.875 14 576072 1909 1979 71 1.048 0.662 1.735 7.407 0.224 0.782 15 576081 1899 1979 81 1.371 0.853 1.040 3.475 0.204 0.837 16 576082 1902 1979 78 1.189 0.911 1.335 3.529 0.166 0.934 17 576091 1909 1979 71 1.124 0.596 1.975 6.682 0.213 0.756 18 576092 1903 1979 77 1.353 0.583 -0.001 2.412 0.209 0.794 19 576101 1915 1979 65 1.548 0.546 1.760 10.870 0.234 0.491 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 576102 1915 1979 65 1.047 0.444 0.849 4.604 0.232 0.696 21 576111 1905 1979 75 1.472 0.634 0.620 3.086 0.209 0.707 22 576112 1904 1979 76 1.193 0.570 0.765 2.953 0.236 0.785 23 576121 1909 1979 71 1.256 0.620 1.076 3.897 0.214 0.854 24 576122 1906 1979 74 1.030 0.498 1.656 5.727 0.260 0.800 25 576131 1843 1979 137 0.708 0.415 0.763 2.961 0.316 0.771 26 576132 1886 1979 94 1.069 0.429 0.143 2.657 0.251 0.762 27 576141 1895 1975 81 1.433 0.996 0.558 2.152 0.257 0.889 28 576142 1890 1958 69 1.377 1.119 1.051 3.679 0.246 0.901 29 576151 1916 1979 64 1.301 0.504 0.511 3.094 0.290 0.480 30 576152 1910 1979 70 1.217 0.493 0.348 3.227 0.258 0.639 31 576161 1914 1979 66 1.144 0.489 2.701 13.105 0.222 0.612 32 576162 1912 1979 68 1.113 0.428 0.838 4.726 0.227 0.670 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 32 FROM 1843 TO 1979 137 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 77 1.167 0.637 1.000 4.311 0.250 0.768 STANDARD DEVIATION 13 0.230 0.178 0.634 2.456 0.045 0.131 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 75 1.172 0.589 0.968 3.502 0.235 0.791 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 11 0.293 0.255 0.665 1.901 0.059 0.168 MINIMUM VALUE 63 0.708 0.415 -0.212 2.007 0.166 0.402 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 69 1.038 0.495 0.626 2.908 0.215 0.709 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 80 1.331 0.750 1.291 4.809 0.274 0.876 MAXIMUM VALUE 137 1.690 1.119 2.701 13.105 0.348 0.934 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 496 0.631 0.165 0.007 -0.651 3.233 -0.034 0.959 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.034 SERIES 576122 AND 576161 66 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.959 SERIES 576051 AND 576142 52 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 50.55 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1925. 1950. CORR 66. 435. RBAR 0.632 0.544 SDEV 0.186 0.247 SERR 0.023 0.012 EPS 0.980 0.974 NSS 28.4 31.6 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1843 1979 137 1.071 0.600 0.583 2.672 0.239 0.883 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.750 0.400 -0.073 23 114 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.14 0.22 1.00 1.07 1.29 2.11 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.87 0.93 0.00 0.00 0.93 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 76. 12. 63. 69. 80. 137. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.876 0.839 0.830 0.772 0.717 0.673 0.640 0.592 0.556 0.529 PACF 0.876 0.306 0.245 -0.088 -0.107 -0.071 0.051 -0.012 0.021 0.020 95% C.L. 0.171 0.272 0.339 0.394 0.436 0.469 0.497 0.520 0.539 0.556 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.819 0.536 0.136 0.271 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 576011 1 1.79358554 0.09491484 0.00000000 0.92582315 2 576012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01417195 2.14366102 3 576021 1 2.28039098 0.06903438 0.00000000 0.91782475 4 576022 1 3.10431099 0.07159742 0.00000000 0.32095888 5 576031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.02662729 2.48740506 6 576032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01634458 1.61295569 7 576041 -67 51 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 576042 -67 53 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 576051 1 3.55572820 0.06231143 0.00000000 0.40796682 10 576052 1 2.94915628 0.05314400 0.00000000 0.44269764 11 576061 -67 52 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 576062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01668270 1.50399077 13 576071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.02991300 2.27002716 14 576072 1 3.88079143 0.26712084 0.00000000 0.86952025 15 576081 1 3.14625239 0.03277671 0.00000000 0.28697273 16 576082 1 3.32809019 0.04480318 0.00000000 0.28637183 17 576091 1 2.43527246 0.12441112 0.00000000 0.86465961 18 576092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.02102950 2.17287755 19 576101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01488505 2.03936052 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 576102 1 1.35400355 0.03247574 0.00000000 0.49230585 21 576111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.02082589 2.26351714 22 576112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.02106904 2.00378942 23 576121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01891080 1.93712676 24 576122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00988138 1.40028131 25 576131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00375777 0.96687740 26 576132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01052473 1.56886065 27 576141 -67 54 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 28 576142 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 29 576151 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01750458 1.86952388 30 576152 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01517908 1.75542855 31 576161 1 5.05231667 0.64313436 0.00000000 1.05926466 32 576162 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01026472 1.46692717 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 576011 1911 1979 69 1.000 0.346 0.038 2.978 0.267 0.630 2 576012 1917 1979 63 0.998 0.306 -0.238 3.007 0.342 0.274 3 576021 1899 1979 81 1.000 0.326 -0.164 3.137 0.292 0.481 4 576022 1895 1979 85 0.993 0.293 0.208 4.903 0.332 0.091 5 576031 1892 1971 80 0.983 0.323 0.431 3.205 0.208 0.733 6 576032 1900 1979 80 1.005 0.287 0.266 4.331 0.234 0.441 7 576041 1903 1979 77 1.003 0.329 0.537 2.898 0.329 0.202 8 576042 1900 1979 80 0.993 0.283 -0.131 2.934 0.325 0.051 9 576051 1907 1979 73 1.007 0.305 0.356 2.965 0.227 0.535 10 576052 1899 1979 81 1.007 0.472 3.423 15.526 0.210 0.657 11 576061 1901 1979 79 0.992 0.323 0.229 3.137 0.276 0.376 12 576062 1899 1979 81 1.047 0.338 0.570 3.064 0.215 0.623 13 576071 1913 1979 67 0.997 0.314 0.202 3.059 0.205 0.695 14 576072 1909 1979 71 1.000 0.448 -0.098 3.489 0.212 0.818 15 576081 1899 1979 81 0.995 0.286 0.278 3.559 0.197 0.649 16 576082 1902 1979 78 1.009 0.312 0.318 2.679 0.162 0.791 17 576091 1909 1979 71 1.001 0.295 -0.125 3.080 0.213 0.590 18 576092 1903 1979 77 0.985 0.265 -0.242 2.873 0.206 0.552 19 576101 1915 1979 65 0.999 0.279 0.568 5.963 0.230 0.431 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 576102 1915 1979 65 0.999 0.306 0.433 3.474 0.228 0.618 21 576111 1905 1979 75 0.993 0.265 -0.357 2.839 0.206 0.539 22 576112 1904 1979 76 1.001 0.246 0.074 2.611 0.230 0.359 23 576121 1909 1979 71 0.999 0.352 0.387 3.077 0.210 0.776 24 576122 1906 1979 74 1.001 0.412 1.200 4.497 0.255 0.749 25 576131 1843 1979 137 0.993 0.520 0.685 3.543 0.314 0.759 26 576132 1886 1979 94 0.992 0.311 0.250 2.959 0.249 0.600 27 576141 1895 1975 81 0.996 0.311 -0.308 2.641 0.248 0.535 28 576142 1890 1958 69 0.999 0.273 0.111 4.103 0.237 0.456 29 576151 1916 1979 64 0.996 0.279 -0.034 3.348 0.286 0.218 30 576152 1910 1979 70 0.994 0.304 -0.276 2.681 0.254 0.521 31 576161 1914 1979 66 1.000 0.291 0.426 3.419 0.207 0.653 32 576162 1912 1979 68 0.998 0.329 0.257 2.831 0.223 0.656 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 77 0.999 0.323 0.290 3.713 0.245 0.533 STANDARD DEVIATION 13 0.011 0.061 0.665 2.274 0.046 0.201 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 75 0.999 0.309 0.240 3.079 0.230 0.571 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 11 0.007 0.043 0.540 0.600 0.061 0.220 MINIMUM VALUE 63 0.983 0.246 -0.357 2.611 0.162 0.051 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 69 0.994 0.287 -0.112 2.916 0.210 0.436 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 80 1.001 0.329 0.428 3.516 0.272 0.657 MAXIMUM VALUE 137 1.047 0.520 3.423 15.526 0.342 0.818 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 576011 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 576012 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 576021 -67 54 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 576022 -67 56 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 576031 -67 53 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 576032 -67 53 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 576041 -67 51 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 576042 -67 53 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 576051 -67 48 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 576052 -67 54 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 576061 -67 52 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 576062 -67 54 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 576071 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 576072 -67 47 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 576081 -67 54 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 576082 -67 52 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 576091 -67 47 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 576092 -67 51 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 576101 -67 43 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 576102 -67 43 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 576111 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 576112 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 576121 -67 47 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 576122 -67 49 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 576131 -67 91 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 576132 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 27 576141 -67 54 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 28 576142 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 29 576151 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 30 576152 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 31 576161 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 32 576162 -67 45 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 576011 1911 1979 69 0.988 0.282 -0.146 3.614 0.266 0.406 2 576012 1917 1979 63 0.997 0.281 -0.434 2.943 0.343 0.119 3 576021 1899 1979 81 0.991 0.273 -0.167 3.235 0.293 0.249 4 576022 1895 1979 85 0.998 0.267 -0.159 4.463 0.331 -0.157 5 576031 1892 1971 80 0.992 0.260 -0.292 3.178 0.207 0.576 6 576032 1900 1979 80 0.996 0.268 0.173 4.066 0.234 0.408 7 576041 1903 1979 77 0.998 0.320 0.608 2.991 0.328 0.166 8 576042 1900 1979 80 0.999 0.277 -0.090 3.137 0.326 -0.006 9 576051 1907 1979 73 0.994 0.240 0.167 2.513 0.225 0.332 10 576052 1899 1979 81 0.993 0.281 0.802 3.690 0.211 0.461 11 576061 1901 1979 79 0.994 0.310 0.444 3.964 0.276 0.270 12 576062 1899 1979 81 0.993 0.220 -0.205 2.867 0.214 0.352 13 576071 1913 1979 67 0.993 0.279 0.087 2.928 0.203 0.571 14 576072 1909 1979 71 0.983 0.333 -0.124 2.784 0.218 0.634 15 576081 1899 1979 81 0.991 0.222 0.166 2.891 0.195 0.447 16 576082 1902 1979 78 0.987 0.236 0.119 3.139 0.159 0.646 17 576091 1909 1979 71 0.996 0.241 -0.289 4.167 0.210 0.429 18 576092 1903 1979 77 0.996 0.228 -0.001 2.616 0.207 0.418 19 576101 1915 1979 65 0.997 0.251 0.105 4.611 0.229 0.337 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 576102 1915 1979 65 0.997 0.276 0.147 2.991 0.226 0.522 21 576111 1905 1979 75 0.994 0.236 -0.276 3.540 0.206 0.385 22 576112 1904 1979 76 0.995 0.217 0.002 2.808 0.230 0.206 23 576121 1909 1979 71 0.986 0.293 0.108 3.185 0.211 0.679 24 576122 1906 1979 74 0.984 0.335 0.835 3.858 0.255 0.639 25 576131 1843 1979 137 0.974 0.405 0.158 3.008 0.314 0.581 26 576132 1886 1979 94 0.996 0.281 0.348 3.525 0.248 0.521 27 576141 1895 1975 81 0.995 0.297 -0.333 2.776 0.247 0.484 28 576142 1890 1958 69 0.996 0.246 -0.235 3.855 0.237 0.321 29 576151 1916 1979 64 0.998 0.269 0.106 3.570 0.287 0.118 30 576152 1910 1979 70 0.995 0.273 0.200 4.087 0.254 0.304 31 576161 1914 1979 66 0.994 0.182 -0.346 3.488 0.211 0.168 32 576162 1912 1979 68 0.989 0.244 -0.201 3.084 0.221 0.428 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 77 0.993 0.269 0.040 3.362 0.244 0.375 STANDARD DEVIATION 13 0.005 0.042 0.316 0.549 0.046 0.198 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 75 0.994 0.271 0.044 3.182 0.230 0.407 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 11 0.005 0.042 0.370 0.837 0.060 0.262 MINIMUM VALUE 63 0.974 0.182 -0.434 2.513 0.159 -0.157 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 69 0.991 0.240 -0.203 2.936 0.211 0.259 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 80 0.996 0.282 0.167 3.772 0.271 0.522 MAXIMUM VALUE 137 0.999 0.405 0.835 4.611 0.343 0.679 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 496 0.341 0.190 0.009 -0.316 2.691 -0.169 0.861 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.169 SERIES 576031 AND 576082 70 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.861 SERIES 576121 AND 576122 71 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 50.55 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1925. 1950. CORR 66. 435. RBAR 0.279 0.324 SDEV 0.204 0.226 SERR 0.025 0.011 EPS 0.917 0.938 NSS 28.4 31.6 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1843 1979 137 0.948 0.310 -0.236 3.287 0.264 0.538 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.245 0.084 0.059 28 109 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.12 0.16 1.00 1.02 1.18 29.91 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.88 0.94 0.00 0.00 0.94 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.534 0.425 0.373 0.288 0.137 0.118 0.074 0.075 0.030 0.059 PACF 0.534 0.195 0.126 0.014 -0.132 0.012 -0.011 0.057 -0.024 0.046 95% C.L. 0.171 0.214 0.237 0.254 0.263 0.265 0.267 0.268 0.268 0.268 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.340 0.417 0.132 0.136 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.339 0.396 0.080 0.077 -0.244 -0.152 -0.289 -0.150 -0.173 -0.004 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.339 2 0.231 0.318 3 0.279 0.353 -0.150 4 0.273 0.368 -0.138 -0.044 5 0.260 0.328 -0.032 0.035 -0.289 6 0.249 0.330 -0.033 0.047 -0.279 -0.038 7 0.246 0.311 -0.030 0.045 -0.257 -0.021 -0.068 8 0.247 0.311 -0.026 0.044 -0.257 -0.025 -0.071 0.013 9 0.247 0.312 -0.026 0.047 -0.257 -0.025 -0.074 0.011 0.009 10 0.247 0.311 -0.024 0.048 -0.249 -0.026 -0.073 0.001 0.001 0.032 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1032.86 1018.10 1005.50 1004.36 1006.09 996.14 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 997.94 999.31 1001.29 1003.28 1005.14 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 3 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.279 0.353 -0.150 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 22.26 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 128.64 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 3) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.279 0.431 0.068 0.129 -0.005 0.034 -0.012 0.009 -0.007 0.0032 -0.003 0.001 -0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 576011 3 0.196 0.370 0.179 -0.128 2 576012 3 0.037 0.116 0.106 -0.073 3 576021 3 0.210 0.115 0.367 0.103 4 576022 3 0.071 -0.134 0.194 0.037 5 576031 3 0.378 0.477 0.256 -0.086 6 576032 3 0.229 0.391 0.098 -0.017 7 576041 3 0.149 0.191 0.271 -0.260 8 576042 3 0.149 0.043 0.336 -0.140 9 576051 3 0.155 0.265 0.221 -0.018 10 576052 3 0.259 0.423 0.192 -0.130 11 576061 3 0.097 0.228 0.153 0.015 12 576062 3 0.184 0.298 0.265 -0.115 13 576071 3 0.420 0.556 0.177 -0.157 14 576072 3 0.534 0.682 0.199 -0.399 15 576081 3 0.279 0.385 0.264 -0.146 16 576082 3 0.443 0.547 0.200 -0.052 17 576091 3 0.300 0.374 0.342 -0.225 18 576092 3 0.286 0.385 0.288 -0.248 19 576101 3 0.200 0.369 0.116 -0.198 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 576102 3 0.368 0.541 0.160 -0.324 21 576111 3 0.211 0.345 0.242 -0.128 22 576112 3 0.130 0.144 0.261 0.030 23 576121 3 0.483 0.636 0.178 -0.150 24 576122 3 0.460 0.530 0.252 -0.088 25 576131 3 0.409 0.404 0.265 0.058 26 576132 3 0.352 0.495 0.257 -0.303 27 576141 3 0.255 0.500 0.030 -0.043 28 576142 3 0.137 0.258 0.188 0.012 29 576151 3 0.061 0.124 0.015 -0.198 30 576152 3 0.168 0.258 0.241 -0.030 31 576161 3 0.100 0.155 0.222 -0.096 32 576162 3 0.309 0.395 0.359 -0.279 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 3 0.251 0.340 0.215 -0.118 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.134 0.184 0.085 0.120 MEDIAN 3 0.220 0.372 0.221 -0.121 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.211 0.277 0.087 0.173 MINIMUM VALUE 3 0.037 -0.134 0.015 -0.399 LOWER HINGE 3 0.149 0.209 0.178 -0.198 UPPER HINGE 3 0.360 0.486 0.264 -0.024 MAXIMUM VALUE 3 0.534 0.682 0.367 0.103 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 576011 1911 1979 69 1.000 0.253 0.167 3.834 0.286 -0.004 2 576012 1917 1979 63 1.000 0.277 -0.386 2.860 0.355 -0.003 3 576021 1899 1979 81 1.000 0.243 -0.285 3.623 0.291 -0.006 4 576022 1895 1979 85 1.000 0.259 -0.261 4.830 0.294 -0.004 5 576031 1892 1971 80 1.000 0.205 -0.321 4.011 0.249 0.003 6 576032 1900 1979 80 1.000 0.241 0.336 4.439 0.269 0.009 7 576041 1903 1979 77 1.000 0.296 0.335 2.553 0.343 0.022 8 576042 1900 1979 80 1.000 0.258 -0.063 3.135 0.310 -0.020 9 576051 1907 1979 73 1.000 0.221 0.144 2.370 0.252 -0.002 10 576052 1899 1979 81 1.000 0.244 0.829 5.113 0.256 -0.005 11 576061 1901 1979 79 1.000 0.294 0.162 4.407 0.316 0.000 12 576062 1899 1979 81 1.000 0.198 -0.061 3.311 0.236 -0.007 13 576071 1913 1979 67 1.000 0.220 0.261 3.418 0.225 0.005 14 576072 1909 1979 71 1.000 0.228 0.328 3.639 0.257 0.007 15 576081 1899 1979 81 1.000 0.191 0.086 2.779 0.227 -0.028 16 576082 1902 1979 78 1.000 0.176 0.345 2.964 0.197 -0.009 17 576091 1909 1979 71 1.000 0.203 -0.177 3.359 0.246 -0.035 18 576092 1903 1979 77 1.000 0.196 -0.034 2.694 0.236 -0.047 19 576101 1915 1979 65 1.000 0.223 -0.030 4.236 0.254 -0.058 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 576102 1915 1979 65 1.000 0.218 -0.014 3.024 0.263 -0.034 21 576111 1905 1979 75 1.000 0.207 -0.653 3.820 0.239 -0.026 22 576112 1904 1979 76 1.000 0.204 -0.138 2.912 0.244 -0.005 23 576121 1909 1979 71 1.000 0.212 0.412 3.812 0.233 -0.010 24 576122 1906 1979 74 1.000 0.249 0.596 4.279 0.295 -0.020 25 576131 1843 1979 137 1.000 0.310 0.121 4.560 0.357 -0.015 26 576132 1886 1979 94 1.000 0.227 -0.027 2.820 0.261 0.022 27 576141 1895 1975 81 1.000 0.256 0.112 2.675 0.274 0.018 28 576142 1890 1958 69 1.000 0.228 0.033 3.786 0.254 -0.001 29 576151 1916 1979 64 1.000 0.261 0.037 3.582 0.289 0.021 30 576152 1910 1979 70 1.000 0.250 0.545 4.119 0.269 0.013 31 576161 1914 1979 66 1.000 0.175 -0.217 3.621 0.219 -0.011 32 576162 1912 1979 68 1.000 0.202 -0.045 3.333 0.224 0.000 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 77 1.000 0.232 0.067 3.560 0.266 -0.007 STANDARD DEVIATION 13 0.000 0.034 0.308 0.703 0.039 0.019 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 75 1.000 0.228 0.035 3.601 0.257 -0.004 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 11 0.000 0.050 0.395 1.127 0.053 0.021 MINIMUM VALUE 63 1.000 0.175 -0.653 2.370 0.197 -0.058 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 69 1.000 0.204 -0.100 2.938 0.238 -0.017 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 80 1.000 0.254 0.294 4.065 0.290 0.004 MAXIMUM VALUE 137 1.000 0.310 0.829 5.113 0.357 0.022 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 496 0.325 0.183 0.008 -0.509 2.913 -0.152 0.781 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.152 SERIES 576031 AND 576041 69 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.781 SERIES 576011 AND 576121 69 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 50.55 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1925. 1950. CORR 66. 435. RBAR 0.255 0.342 SDEV 0.245 0.189 SERR 0.030 0.009 EPS 0.907 0.943 NSS 28.4 31.6 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1843 1979 137 0.986 0.239 -0.413 4.315 0.278 0.014 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.105 0.040 0.080 27 110 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.20 0.31 1.00 1.08 1.39 18.87 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.88 0.93 0.00 0.00 0.93 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.014 -0.152 0.114 0.051 -0.100 -0.028 -0.015 -0.023 -0.051 0.072 PACF 0.014 -0.152 0.121 0.023 -0.069 -0.026 -0.048 -0.012 -0.049 0.076 95% C.L. 0.171 0.171 0.175 0.177 0.177 0.179 0.179 0.179 0.179 0.180 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.002 0.016 -0.014 0.027 -0.070 -0.029 -0.053 0.019 -0.073 0.067 PACF -0.002 0.016 -0.014 0.026 -0.070 -0.030 -0.050 0.017 -0.069 0.062 95% C.L. 0.171 0.171 0.171 0.171 0.171 0.172 0.172 0.173 0.173 0.173 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.001 -0.002 0.016 -0.015 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1843 1979 137 0.985 0.268 -0.118 3.132 0.263 0.318 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.315 0.403 0.043 0.106 -0.088 -0.019 -0.120 -0.013 -0.133 -0.008 PACF 0.315 0.337 -0.184 0.002 -0.077 -0.015 -0.043 0.036 -0.094 0.025 95% C.L. 0.171 0.187 0.211 0.211 0.213 0.214 0.214 0.216 0.216 0.218 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.239 0.281 0.382 -0.199 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 150.85 MINUTES