RUN: SWIT001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWIT135E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWIT135E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 589 1 Creux du Dailley, mittel WIDTH_EARLY PCAB - 589 2 Switzerland Norway spruce 1200 4608-711 1833 1979 - 589 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 9 589051 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1976 1976 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 21 589121 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1976 1976 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 589011 1882 1979 98 0.963 0.683 1.878 6.517 0.313 0.811 2 589012 1875 1979 105 0.799 0.486 1.396 4.659 0.264 0.822 3 589021 1867 1979 113 1.265 0.735 1.112 4.266 0.326 0.787 4 589022 1855 1979 125 0.988 0.556 1.065 4.829 0.307 0.761 5 589031 1850 1979 130 1.036 0.770 1.386 3.852 0.325 0.873 6 589032 1856 1979 124 1.093 0.679 1.035 3.406 0.320 0.824 7 589041 1867 1979 113 0.785 0.444 1.174 4.425 0.404 0.622 8 589042 1874 1979 106 0.926 0.422 0.442 3.460 0.419 0.491 9 589051 1855 1979 125 1.041 0.485 0.384 2.707 0.322 0.634 10 589052 1855 1979 125 0.829 0.410 0.603 2.957 0.340 0.696 11 589061 1860 1979 120 0.693 0.428 1.464 5.026 0.411 0.724 12 589062 1866 1979 114 0.811 0.470 1.375 5.727 0.398 0.698 13 589071 1868 1979 112 0.634 0.642 2.600 9.697 0.413 0.817 14 589072 1867 1979 113 0.634 0.630 2.551 9.349 0.409 0.820 15 589081 1837 1979 143 0.872 0.623 1.799 6.431 0.322 0.889 16 589082 1849 1979 131 0.988 0.730 2.327 9.590 0.371 0.865 17 589091 1877 1979 103 1.386 0.634 0.874 3.659 0.295 0.750 18 589092 1864 1979 116 1.038 0.436 0.678 3.583 0.326 0.618 19 589101 1877 1979 103 1.054 0.382 0.337 2.746 0.250 0.662 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 589102 1913 1979 67 1.331 0.556 1.936 12.496 0.299 0.451 21 589121 1855 1979 125 0.816 0.578 1.982 7.209 0.279 0.861 22 589122 1878 1979 102 1.025 0.640 1.544 5.544 0.254 0.841 23 589131 1863 1979 117 0.990 0.461 0.956 3.634 0.279 0.738 24 589132 1863 1979 117 0.954 0.503 0.897 3.121 0.291 0.799 25 589141 1844 1979 136 0.568 0.270 1.185 5.107 0.354 0.668 26 589142 1844 1979 136 0.848 0.474 2.672 15.204 0.361 0.592 27 589151 1877 1979 103 0.630 0.443 0.751 2.934 0.379 0.776 28 589152 1883 1979 97 0.514 0.308 1.096 4.731 0.387 0.755 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 28 FROM 1837 TO 1979 143 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 115 0.911 0.531 1.339 5.602 0.336 0.737 STANDARD DEVIATION 15 0.218 0.130 0.669 3.089 0.052 0.113 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 115 0.940 0.495 1.179 4.695 0.325 0.758 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 20 0.245 0.198 0.953 2.953 0.086 0.156 MINIMUM VALUE 67 0.514 0.270 0.337 2.707 0.250 0.451 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 104 0.792 0.440 0.886 3.521 0.297 0.665 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 124 1.037 0.637 1.839 6.474 0.383 0.821 MAXIMUM VALUE 143 1.386 0.770 2.672 15.204 0.419 0.889 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 378 0.470 0.278 0.014 -0.446 2.333 -0.247 0.996 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.247 SERIES 589052 AND 589151 103 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.996 SERIES 589071 AND 589072 112 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 74.49 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 91. 351. 378. RBAR 0.637 0.375 0.385 SDEV 0.205 0.306 0.295 SERR 0.021 0.016 0.015 EPS 0.978 0.943 0.946 NSS 24.8 27.5 28.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1837 1979 143 0.934 0.422 1.081 4.364 0.287 0.739 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.446 0.200 0.177 59 84 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.60 0.94 1.01 1.21 2.15 4.66 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.11 0.00 0.86 0.97 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 115. 21. 67. 104. 125. 143. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.734 0.630 0.585 0.553 0.477 0.477 0.406 0.392 0.292 0.238 PACF 0.734 0.198 0.156 0.104 -0.039 0.123 -0.085 0.069 -0.170 -0.048 95% C.L. 0.167 0.241 0.283 0.315 0.341 0.360 0.377 0.389 0.400 0.406 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.601 0.513 0.109 0.100 0.138 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 589011 1 2.73281741 0.08571319 0.00000000 0.65194368 2 589012 1 1.64451480 0.06705175 0.00000000 0.57312512 3 589021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01577342 2.16421771 4 589022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00982525 1.60747099 5 589031 1 2.44179296 0.02403701 0.00000000 0.29811835 6 589032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01489322 2.02421331 7 589041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00922067 1.31088817 8 589042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00238638 1.05370891 9 589051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00865490 1.57829678 10 589052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00565745 1.18505931 11 589061 1 1.19328213 0.03203463 0.00000000 0.39365256 12 589062 1 1.37621462 0.02558029 0.00000000 0.37002376 13 589071 1 1.90706253 0.03421433 0.00000000 0.15569568 14 589072 1 1.81465936 0.03071569 0.00000000 0.13516614 15 589081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00902820 1.52233827 16 589082 1 0.64943337 0.01088868 0.00000000 0.64366317 17 589091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00487436 1.13274693 18 589092 1 0.99938273 0.07275138 0.00000000 0.92404771 19 589101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00010774 1.04876637 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 589102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01737888 1.92207599 21 589121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00806586 1.31825936 22 589122 1 2.79450250 0.11361759 0.00000000 0.79770136 23 589131 1 0.94012100 0.05377284 0.00000000 0.84448278 24 589132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00020568 0.94230920 25 589141 1 1.02003443 0.09633769 0.00000000 0.49407238 26 589142 1 1.12182009 0.24681690 0.00000000 0.81854945 27 589151 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00787253 0.22072530 28 589152 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00279363 0.37692654 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 589011 1882 1979 98 1.000 0.486 2.170 9.533 0.308 0.696 2 589012 1875 1979 105 1.001 0.438 0.681 4.329 0.262 0.722 3 589021 1867 1979 113 1.005 0.383 0.360 2.662 0.323 0.461 4 589022 1855 1979 125 0.981 0.391 0.880 3.957 0.305 0.579 5 589031 1850 1979 130 1.008 0.385 0.145 2.898 0.322 0.554 6 589032 1856 1979 124 1.044 0.410 0.959 5.634 0.317 0.476 7 589041 1867 1979 113 1.003 0.374 0.139 2.727 0.401 0.215 8 589042 1874 1979 106 0.999 0.449 0.454 3.677 0.415 0.476 9 589051 1855 1979 125 0.987 0.353 0.099 2.875 0.330 0.458 10 589052 1855 1979 125 0.989 0.394 0.168 2.814 0.338 0.580 11 589061 1860 1979 120 1.001 0.401 0.140 3.308 0.408 0.374 12 589062 1866 1979 114 0.999 0.385 0.341 3.548 0.392 0.287 13 589071 1868 1979 112 1.021 0.528 1.113 4.600 0.408 0.512 14 589072 1867 1979 113 1.029 0.553 1.061 4.004 0.405 0.572 15 589081 1837 1979 143 1.049 0.610 1.189 3.618 0.321 0.799 16 589082 1849 1979 131 1.000 0.689 1.752 6.665 0.368 0.838 17 589091 1877 1979 103 1.000 0.442 0.794 3.578 0.293 0.712 18 589092 1864 1979 116 0.999 0.371 0.181 2.653 0.324 0.538 19 589101 1877 1979 103 1.000 0.362 0.346 2.768 0.247 0.655 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 589102 1913 1979 67 0.995 0.320 1.332 8.292 0.295 0.243 21 589121 1855 1979 125 0.984 0.515 1.000 3.793 0.287 0.761 22 589122 1878 1979 102 1.000 0.458 0.807 3.505 0.252 0.785 23 589131 1863 1979 117 1.000 0.410 0.622 2.982 0.277 0.695 24 589132 1863 1979 117 1.000 0.527 0.897 3.115 0.288 0.792 25 589141 1844 1979 136 1.000 0.366 0.072 3.010 0.352 0.500 26 589142 1844 1979 136 1.000 0.559 3.058 18.181 0.357 0.578 27 589151 1877 1979 103 1.026 0.759 2.058 8.346 0.376 0.750 28 589152 1883 1979 97 0.996 0.586 1.175 4.921 0.384 0.720 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 115 1.004 0.461 0.857 4.714 0.334 0.583 STANDARD DEVIATION 15 0.016 0.107 0.722 3.224 0.051 0.171 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 115 1.000 0.424 0.800 3.598 0.323 0.579 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 21 0.005 0.144 0.883 1.821 0.086 0.245 MINIMUM VALUE 67 0.981 0.320 0.072 2.653 0.247 0.215 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 104 0.999 0.384 0.261 2.940 0.294 0.476 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 125 1.004 0.528 1.144 4.761 0.380 0.721 MAXIMUM VALUE 143 1.049 0.759 3.058 18.181 0.415 0.838 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 589011 -67 65 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 589012 -67 70 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 589021 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 589022 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 589031 -67 87 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 589032 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 589041 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 589042 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 589051 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 589052 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 589061 -67 80 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 589062 -67 76 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 589071 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 589072 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 589081 -67 95 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 589082 -67 87 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 589091 -67 69 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 589092 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 589101 -67 69 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 589102 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 589121 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 589122 -67 68 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 589131 -67 78 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 589132 -67 78 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 589141 -67 91 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 589142 -67 91 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 27 589151 -67 69 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 28 589152 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 589011 1882 1979 98 0.995 0.413 1.375 6.159 0.308 0.598 2 589012 1875 1979 105 0.988 0.383 0.443 3.794 0.261 0.680 3 589021 1867 1979 113 0.993 0.351 0.095 2.509 0.323 0.402 4 589022 1855 1979 125 0.996 0.347 0.682 4.122 0.305 0.421 5 589031 1850 1979 130 0.992 0.354 0.160 3.167 0.322 0.506 6 589032 1856 1979 124 0.995 0.326 0.140 3.317 0.317 0.400 7 589041 1867 1979 113 0.998 0.364 0.094 2.768 0.401 0.184 8 589042 1874 1979 106 0.991 0.385 0.070 2.907 0.414 0.295 9 589051 1855 1979 125 0.998 0.326 0.045 2.995 0.331 0.334 10 589052 1855 1979 125 0.995 0.344 0.007 3.290 0.338 0.358 11 589061 1860 1979 120 0.996 0.391 0.121 3.290 0.408 0.349 12 589062 1866 1979 114 0.998 0.371 0.187 3.217 0.392 0.233 13 589071 1868 1979 112 0.992 0.438 0.342 2.899 0.407 0.423 14 589072 1867 1979 113 0.989 0.428 0.293 2.896 0.405 0.430 15 589081 1837 1979 143 0.977 0.414 0.912 4.499 0.320 0.666 16 589082 1849 1979 131 0.963 0.516 1.303 5.375 0.368 0.720 17 589091 1877 1979 103 0.991 0.392 0.326 2.897 0.292 0.673 18 589092 1864 1979 116 0.997 0.352 0.152 2.837 0.324 0.488 19 589101 1877 1979 103 0.988 0.281 0.255 4.107 0.247 0.464 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 589102 1913 1979 67 0.996 0.299 1.504 9.622 0.295 0.108 21 589121 1855 1979 125 0.976 0.435 0.968 4.152 0.287 0.685 22 589122 1878 1979 102 0.989 0.305 0.313 3.234 0.250 0.481 23 589131 1863 1979 117 0.984 0.335 0.599 3.233 0.277 0.531 24 589132 1863 1979 117 0.968 0.380 0.714 3.708 0.289 0.621 25 589141 1844 1979 136 0.997 0.357 0.039 3.058 0.353 0.470 26 589142 1844 1979 136 0.988 0.483 2.280 13.540 0.357 0.524 27 589151 1877 1979 103 0.947 0.520 1.791 7.569 0.375 0.622 28 589152 1883 1979 97 0.968 0.428 0.391 3.364 0.382 0.496 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 115 0.987 0.383 0.557 4.233 0.334 0.470 STANDARD DEVIATION 15 0.013 0.060 0.597 2.411 0.051 0.157 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 115 0.991 0.375 0.320 3.290 0.323 0.475 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 21 0.010 0.075 0.683 1.186 0.085 0.231 MINIMUM VALUE 67 0.947 0.281 0.007 2.509 0.247 0.108 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 104 0.986 0.346 0.131 2.951 0.293 0.379 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 125 0.996 0.421 0.813 4.137 0.378 0.610 MAXIMUM VALUE 143 0.998 0.520 2.280 13.540 0.414 0.720 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 378 0.509 0.177 0.009 -0.592 3.093 -0.017 0.963 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.017 SERIES 589012 AND 589142 105 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.963 SERIES 589071 AND 589072 112 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 74.49 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 91. 351. 378. RBAR 0.632 0.500 0.471 SDEV 0.158 0.217 0.229 SERR 0.017 0.012 0.012 EPS 0.977 0.965 0.961 NSS 24.8 27.5 28.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1837 1979 143 0.972 0.272 -0.059 3.644 0.274 0.399 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.438 0.147 0.087 51 92 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.28 0.61 1.00 1.12 1.73 8.08 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.08 0.00 0.88 0.96 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.396 0.276 0.139 0.172 0.039 0.148 -0.017 0.088 -0.077 -0.128 PACF 0.396 0.141 -0.013 0.109 -0.082 0.139 -0.131 0.102 -0.144 -0.137 95% C.L. 0.167 0.192 0.203 0.205 0.209 0.209 0.212 0.212 0.213 0.214 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.175 0.340 0.144 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.373 0.306 0.104 0.166 0.021 0.150 -0.055 0.112 -0.054 -0.124 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.373 2 0.300 0.194 3 0.315 0.216 -0.073 4 0.323 0.191 -0.109 0.115 5 0.332 0.183 -0.095 0.140 -0.076 6 0.342 0.164 -0.082 0.115 -0.120 0.133 7 0.362 0.146 -0.065 0.103 -0.095 0.185 -0.152 8 0.383 0.121 -0.052 0.089 -0.086 0.166 -0.201 0.135 9 0.396 0.101 -0.035 0.080 -0.077 0.160 -0.189 0.173 -0.100 10 0.376 0.135 -0.072 0.112 -0.093 0.176 -0.195 0.193 -0.022 -0.197 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1254.74 1235.35 1231.86 1233.09 1233.18 1234.36 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1233.80 1232.46 1231.85 1232.41 1228.76 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.300 0.194 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 17.14 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 120.68 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.300 0.284 0.144 0.098 0.057 0.036 0.022 0.014 0.008 0.0052 0.003 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 589011 2 0.389 0.555 0.075 2 589012 2 0.523 0.508 0.257 3 589021 2 0.168 0.405 0.012 4 589022 2 0.203 0.357 0.158 5 589031 2 0.293 0.424 0.171 6 589032 2 0.189 0.357 0.127 7 589041 2 0.057 0.160 0.133 8 589042 2 0.101 0.270 0.093 9 589051 2 0.114 0.347 -0.039 10 589052 2 0.137 0.378 -0.027 11 589061 2 0.173 0.268 0.233 12 589062 2 0.063 0.212 0.094 13 589071 2 0.229 0.328 0.236 14 589072 2 0.241 0.325 0.251 15 589081 2 0.475 0.515 0.228 16 589082 2 0.531 0.639 0.116 17 589091 2 0.499 0.623 0.084 18 589092 2 0.327 0.387 0.209 19 589101 2 0.260 0.431 0.110 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 589102 2 0.047 0.114 -0.033 21 589121 2 0.476 0.625 0.089 22 589122 2 0.281 0.388 0.206 23 589131 2 0.332 0.393 0.261 24 589132 2 0.421 0.476 0.234 25 589141 2 0.221 0.468 0.006 26 589142 2 0.341 0.387 0.262 27 589151 2 0.470 0.417 0.333 28 589152 2 0.323 0.372 0.256 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.282 0.397 0.148 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.149 0.129 0.104 MEDIAN 2 0.270 0.388 0.146 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.234 0.134 0.148 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.047 0.114 -0.039 LOWER HINGE 2 0.171 0.338 0.087 UPPER HINGE 2 0.405 0.472 0.235 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.531 0.639 0.333 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 589011 1882 1979 98 1.000 0.330 0.934 5.569 0.372 0.016 2 589012 1875 1979 105 1.000 0.271 0.240 4.113 0.297 0.056 3 589021 1867 1979 113 1.000 0.320 0.269 3.246 0.371 0.004 4 589022 1855 1979 125 1.000 0.311 0.646 4.532 0.348 0.012 5 589031 1850 1979 130 1.000 0.300 0.010 2.931 0.360 -0.016 6 589032 1856 1979 124 1.000 0.295 0.082 3.000 0.355 0.023 7 589041 1867 1979 113 1.000 0.355 0.135 2.880 0.423 -0.010 8 589042 1874 1979 106 1.000 0.366 0.088 2.719 0.435 0.005 9 589051 1855 1979 125 1.000 0.307 -0.026 2.868 0.365 -0.002 10 589052 1855 1979 125 1.000 0.318 -0.159 3.146 0.373 -0.010 11 589061 1860 1979 120 1.000 0.356 0.095 2.886 0.437 -0.014 12 589062 1866 1979 114 1.000 0.359 0.324 3.175 0.413 0.003 13 589071 1868 1979 112 1.000 0.383 0.336 3.542 0.440 -0.005 14 589072 1867 1979 113 1.000 0.372 0.394 3.336 0.434 -0.011 15 589081 1837 1979 143 1.000 0.300 -0.199 3.577 0.370 -0.009 16 589082 1849 1979 131 1.000 0.354 0.239 3.661 0.439 -0.010 17 589091 1877 1979 103 1.000 0.284 -0.001 2.825 0.341 0.013 18 589092 1864 1979 116 1.000 0.300 -0.242 3.007 0.347 0.055 19 589101 1877 1979 103 1.000 0.241 -0.403 3.749 0.296 -0.007 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 589102 1913 1979 67 1.000 0.297 1.523 9.881 0.313 -0.005 21 589121 1855 1979 125 1.000 0.315 1.245 6.434 0.346 0.004 22 589122 1878 1979 102 1.000 0.260 0.298 3.677 0.283 0.035 23 589131 1863 1979 117 1.000 0.274 0.179 3.332 0.322 -0.004 24 589132 1863 1979 117 1.000 0.289 0.433 4.407 0.333 -0.006 25 589141 1844 1979 136 1.000 0.315 -0.133 2.928 0.401 0.000 26 589142 1844 1979 136 1.000 0.397 2.070 12.231 0.384 0.041 27 589151 1877 1979 103 1.000 0.380 1.227 6.480 0.398 0.037 28 589152 1883 1979 97 1.000 0.356 0.375 3.997 0.425 -0.048 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 115 1.000 0.322 0.356 4.219 0.372 0.005 STANDARD DEVIATION 15 0.000 0.040 0.569 2.199 0.047 0.023 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 115 1.000 0.315 0.240 3.439 0.371 -0.001 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 21 0.000 0.060 0.409 1.295 0.074 0.023 MINIMUM VALUE 67 1.000 0.241 -0.403 2.719 0.283 -0.048 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 104 1.000 0.296 0.005 2.965 0.344 -0.009 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 125 1.000 0.356 0.413 4.260 0.418 0.014 MAXIMUM VALUE 143 1.000 0.397 2.070 12.231 0.440 0.056 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 378 0.581 0.127 0.007 -0.166 2.593 0.234 0.944 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.234 SERIES 589142 AND 589151 103 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.944 SERIES 589071 AND 589072 112 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 74.49 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 91. 351. 378. RBAR 0.649 0.578 0.541 SDEV 0.117 0.161 0.162 SERR 0.012 0.009 0.008 EPS 0.979 0.974 0.971 NSS 24.8 27.5 28.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1837 1979 143 0.989 0.241 -0.256 3.066 0.303 -0.064 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.335 0.104 0.074 52 91 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.17 0.36 1.01 1.10 1.46 5.42 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.07 0.00 0.88 0.95 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.064 -0.039 -0.064 0.090 -0.092 0.136 -0.124 0.181 -0.047 -0.057 PACF -0.064 -0.044 -0.070 0.080 -0.088 0.131 -0.112 0.177 -0.025 -0.080 95% C.L. 0.167 0.168 0.168 0.169 0.170 0.172 0.175 0.177 0.182 0.182 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.003 -0.001 -0.069 0.086 -0.085 0.135 -0.109 0.176 -0.051 -0.064 PACF -0.003 -0.001 -0.069 0.086 -0.087 0.134 -0.106 0.174 -0.042 -0.097 95% C.L. 0.167 0.167 0.167 0.168 0.169 0.170 0.173 0.175 0.180 0.181 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.005 -0.003 -0.001 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1837 1979 143 0.987 0.262 -0.153 3.604 0.271 0.358 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.355 0.298 0.111 0.173 0.021 0.149 -0.035 0.112 -0.084 -0.119 PACF 0.355 0.197 -0.052 0.114 -0.081 0.130 -0.122 0.112 -0.138 -0.156 95% C.L. 0.167 0.187 0.200 0.202 0.206 0.206 0.209 0.209 0.211 0.212 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.164 0.286 0.198 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.22 MINUTES