RUN: SWIT001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWIT136E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWIT136E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 580 1 Chable d.trois besses VS WIDTH_EARLY PCAB - 580 2 Switzerland Norway spruce 1520 4607-711 1813 1979 - 580 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES --- NO GAPS IN DATA FOUND --- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 580011 1831 1979 149 0.786 0.360 1.094 3.543 0.189 0.897 2 580012 1840 1979 140 0.739 0.366 1.763 6.165 0.212 0.882 3 580021 1923 1979 57 1.988 0.526 0.142 2.768 0.186 0.584 4 580022 1920 1979 60 1.769 0.442 0.665 2.787 0.197 0.532 5 580031 1912 1979 68 2.169 0.401 0.938 4.183 0.120 0.658 6 580032 1917 1979 63 2.504 0.700 0.538 2.271 0.116 0.873 7 580041 1870 1979 110 1.707 0.524 0.588 2.524 0.142 0.845 8 580042 1876 1979 104 1.850 0.644 0.737 3.516 0.150 0.862 9 580051 1845 1979 135 1.613 0.749 0.358 2.374 0.200 0.863 10 580052 1845 1979 135 1.134 0.566 0.954 3.142 0.219 0.853 11 580061 1850 1979 130 0.797 0.577 1.896 6.384 0.223 0.917 12 580062 1888 1979 92 0.803 0.490 2.096 6.855 0.181 0.908 13 580071 1813 1979 167 1.090 0.495 0.934 4.676 0.206 0.788 14 580072 1816 1979 164 0.952 0.439 0.970 2.956 0.195 0.871 15 580081 1820 1979 160 0.628 0.462 2.390 10.029 0.313 0.838 16 580082 1827 1979 153 0.878 0.918 4.050 18.813 0.336 0.851 17 580091 1846 1979 134 1.135 0.641 0.325 2.248 0.304 0.853 18 580092 1831 1979 149 0.776 0.555 0.603 2.166 0.269 0.932 19 580101 1833 1979 147 1.247 0.630 1.242 4.432 0.252 0.804 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 580102 1830 1979 150 1.020 0.525 1.219 4.171 0.262 0.754 21 580111 1830 1979 150 0.951 0.383 0.116 2.146 0.232 0.762 22 580112 1849 1979 131 0.917 0.548 0.911 3.032 0.257 0.880 23 580121 1832 1979 148 0.585 0.288 0.422 2.794 0.385 0.678 24 580122 1826 1979 154 0.864 0.447 1.232 4.931 0.321 0.753 25 580131 1846 1979 134 0.666 0.289 1.136 5.406 0.338 0.530 26 580132 1837 1979 143 0.814 0.453 1.244 4.230 0.334 0.752 27 580141 1834 1979 146 0.956 0.309 0.835 3.428 0.167 0.806 28 580142 1825 1979 155 0.959 0.277 0.728 3.002 0.156 0.778 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 28 FROM 1813 TO 1979 167 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 130 1.153 0.500 1.076 4.463 0.231 0.797 STANDARD DEVIATION 32 0.509 0.149 0.804 3.325 0.072 0.111 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 141 0.954 0.493 0.936 3.472 0.215 0.842 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 30 0.630 0.179 0.641 2.025 0.103 0.119 MINIMUM VALUE 56 0.585 0.277 0.116 2.146 0.116 0.530 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 120 0.800 0.392 0.596 2.778 0.183 0.753 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 150 1.430 0.571 1.237 4.803 0.286 0.872 MAXIMUM VALUE 167 2.504 0.918 4.050 18.813 0.385 0.932 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 378 0.190 0.309 0.016 -0.095 2.296 -0.581 0.876 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.581 SERIES 580021 AND 580082 57 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.876 SERIES 580091 AND 580092 134 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 67.27 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 136. 231. 276. 351. RBAR 0.450 0.289 0.256 0.194 SDEV 0.283 0.305 0.305 0.301 SERR 0.024 0.020 0.018 0.016 EPS 0.947 0.906 0.900 0.871 NSS 21.8 23.7 26.2 27.9 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1813 1979 167 1.035 0.415 1.620 7.996 0.169 0.815 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.029 0.014 0.433 98 69 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.74 1.47 1.00 1.35 2.81 7.82 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.11 0.00 0.86 0.97 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 142. 30. 57. 120. 150. 167. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.810 0.693 0.622 0.606 0.587 0.618 0.569 0.571 0.532 0.488 PACF 0.810 0.109 0.098 0.174 0.073 0.218 -0.093 0.149 -0.050 -0.061 95% C.L. 0.155 0.235 0.280 0.311 0.338 0.362 0.386 0.406 0.425 0.440 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.764 0.617 0.284 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 580011 1 1.33715069 0.05358986 0.00000000 0.62261587 2 580012 1 1.45998764 0.05050674 0.00000000 0.53808254 3 580021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01903358 2.53951764 4 580022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01267574 2.15561008 5 580031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00953086 2.49822640 6 580032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.02684476 3.36284184 7 580041 1 1.31231654 0.06000371 0.00000000 1.51425648 8 580042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00676054 1.49459112 9 580051 1 1.04579115 0.02613998 0.00000000 1.32913339 10 580052 1 1.82378578 0.17078526 0.00000000 1.06146061 11 580061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01086837 0.08504473 12 580062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01248247 0.22304349 13 580071 1 1.60409617 0.05272738 0.00000000 0.91250026 14 580072 1 1.51029909 0.02715209 0.00000000 0.62107927 15 580081 1 1.35187984 0.04498861 0.00000000 0.44484228 16 580082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00373524 0.59075248 17 580091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00998873 0.46031308 18 580092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00770278 0.19819790 19 580101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00988851 0.51525670 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 580102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00644699 0.53331900 21 580111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00231929 0.77622730 22 580112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00640389 0.49398473 23 580121 1 0.78467226 0.08389962 0.00000000 0.52408433 24 580122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00343449 0.59785330 25 580131 1 1.31732547 0.19644164 0.00000000 0.62038213 26 580132 1 1.86109161 0.09194118 0.00000000 0.67891145 27 580141 1 0.71501845 0.02617863 0.00000000 0.77542996 28 580142 1 0.84183472 0.00481100 0.00000000 0.36736038 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 580011 1831 1979 149 0.999 0.306 0.254 2.654 0.187 0.761 2 580012 1840 1979 140 1.000 0.244 -0.170 3.584 0.210 0.447 3 580021 1923 1979 57 0.999 0.214 0.204 2.815 0.182 0.379 4 580022 1920 1979 60 1.000 0.208 0.238 2.306 0.194 0.369 5 580031 1912 1979 68 1.000 0.156 0.387 3.822 0.118 0.521 6 580032 1917 1979 63 1.002 0.199 0.165 2.517 0.115 0.709 7 580041 1870 1979 110 1.000 0.261 0.675 3.226 0.141 0.777 8 580042 1876 1979 104 1.000 0.330 0.602 2.952 0.149 0.823 9 580051 1845 1979 135 1.000 0.467 0.795 3.176 0.198 0.844 10 580052 1845 1979 135 1.000 0.476 1.217 4.376 0.217 0.829 11 580061 1850 1979 130 1.256 1.210 3.339 13.508 0.221 0.872 12 580062 1888 1979 92 1.036 0.423 1.021 3.537 0.178 0.732 13 580071 1813 1979 167 0.999 0.373 0.732 5.138 0.205 0.703 14 580072 1816 1979 164 1.000 0.273 0.851 5.250 0.194 0.606 15 580081 1820 1979 160 1.000 0.637 3.915 24.353 0.310 0.725 16 580082 1827 1979 153 1.019 0.871 2.598 10.202 0.333 0.828 17 580091 1846 1979 134 1.042 0.614 1.457 6.220 0.303 0.800 18 580092 1831 1979 149 1.154 1.060 2.706 11.741 0.268 0.877 19 580101 1833 1979 147 1.028 0.438 1.493 6.307 0.251 0.698 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 580102 1830 1979 150 1.018 0.488 1.646 6.466 0.261 0.683 21 580111 1830 1979 150 1.002 0.407 0.367 2.670 0.231 0.767 22 580112 1849 1979 131 1.006 0.514 0.451 2.476 0.255 0.815 23 580121 1832 1979 148 0.999 0.467 0.676 4.029 0.383 0.615 24 580122 1826 1979 154 1.008 0.478 0.604 2.946 0.318 0.741 25 580131 1846 1979 134 1.000 0.373 0.406 2.618 0.332 0.442 26 580132 1837 1979 143 0.999 0.433 0.814 3.857 0.329 0.592 27 580141 1834 1979 146 1.000 0.260 0.491 2.493 0.166 0.687 28 580142 1825 1979 155 1.000 0.256 0.803 3.720 0.155 0.710 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 130 1.020 0.444 1.026 5.320 0.229 0.691 STANDARD DEVIATION 32 0.055 0.250 0.992 4.691 0.072 0.145 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 141 1.000 0.415 0.704 3.652 0.213 0.718 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 30 0.013 0.222 0.941 2.992 0.106 0.196 MINIMUM VALUE 56 0.999 0.156 -0.170 2.306 0.115 0.369 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 120 1.000 0.261 0.396 2.743 0.180 0.611 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 150 1.013 0.483 1.337 5.735 0.286 0.807 MAXIMUM VALUE 167 1.256 1.210 3.915 24.353 0.383 0.877 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 580011 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 580012 -67 93 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 580021 -67 38 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 580022 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 580031 -67 45 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 580032 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 580041 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 580042 -67 69 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 580051 -67 90 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 580052 -67 90 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 580061 -67 87 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 580062 -67 61 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 580071 -67 111 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 580072 -67 109 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 580081 -67 107 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 580082 -67 102 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 580091 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 580092 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 580101 -67 98 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 580102 -67 100 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 580111 -67 100 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 580112 -67 87 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 580121 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 580122 -67 103 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 580131 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 580132 -67 95 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 27 580141 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 28 580142 -67 103 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 580011 1831 1979 149 0.989 0.227 0.008 2.941 0.187 0.547 2 580012 1840 1979 140 0.998 0.235 -0.146 3.480 0.210 0.410 3 580021 1923 1979 57 0.996 0.187 0.166 2.843 0.180 0.225 4 580022 1920 1979 60 0.998 0.196 0.384 2.785 0.194 0.269 5 580031 1912 1979 68 0.998 0.128 0.355 3.939 0.118 0.324 6 580032 1917 1979 63 0.995 0.134 -0.526 3.543 0.113 0.471 7 580041 1870 1979 110 0.997 0.214 0.264 2.818 0.140 0.668 8 580042 1876 1979 104 0.986 0.231 0.222 3.198 0.148 0.697 9 580051 1845 1979 135 0.986 0.405 0.713 3.167 0.198 0.813 10 580052 1845 1979 135 0.981 0.354 0.899 4.121 0.217 0.716 11 580061 1850 1979 130 1.014 0.344 0.337 2.589 0.220 0.634 12 580062 1888 1979 92 0.992 0.302 0.522 3.540 0.179 0.646 13 580071 1813 1979 167 0.994 0.335 0.272 4.363 0.204 0.671 14 580072 1816 1979 164 0.998 0.263 0.970 6.065 0.194 0.573 15 580081 1820 1979 160 0.984 0.368 0.845 4.735 0.309 0.430 16 580082 1827 1979 153 0.995 0.413 0.339 2.608 0.332 0.514 17 580091 1846 1979 134 0.967 0.355 0.494 4.311 0.302 0.520 18 580092 1831 1979 149 0.977 0.405 1.224 5.950 0.267 0.677 19 580101 1833 1979 147 0.996 0.321 0.712 3.612 0.250 0.535 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 580102 1830 1979 150 0.991 0.380 1.705 8.654 0.260 0.508 21 580111 1830 1979 150 0.984 0.261 0.119 3.268 0.230 0.432 22 580112 1849 1979 131 0.961 0.344 0.198 2.958 0.253 0.619 23 580121 1832 1979 148 0.986 0.399 0.272 3.123 0.383 0.456 24 580122 1826 1979 154 0.992 0.374 0.541 3.611 0.318 0.546 25 580131 1846 1979 134 0.997 0.360 0.375 2.668 0.332 0.380 26 580132 1837 1979 143 0.990 0.359 0.369 2.916 0.329 0.358 27 580141 1834 1979 146 0.998 0.244 0.464 2.556 0.166 0.650 28 580142 1825 1979 155 0.995 0.225 0.720 3.692 0.155 0.634 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 130 0.990 0.299 0.458 3.716 0.228 0.533 STANDARD DEVIATION 32 0.010 0.085 0.430 1.324 0.072 0.144 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 141 0.993 0.328 0.372 3.374 0.214 0.541 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 30 0.011 0.135 0.470 1.150 0.105 0.217 MINIMUM VALUE 56 0.961 0.128 -0.526 2.556 0.113 0.225 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 120 0.986 0.229 0.243 2.880 0.179 0.431 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 150 0.997 0.364 0.712 4.030 0.285 0.648 MAXIMUM VALUE 167 1.014 0.413 1.705 8.654 0.383 0.813 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 378 0.240 0.188 0.010 0.203 2.609 -0.236 0.804 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.236 SERIES 580071 AND 580112 131 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.804 SERIES 580131 AND 580132 134 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 67.27 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 136. 231. 276. 351. RBAR 0.360 0.304 0.282 0.261 SDEV 0.272 0.282 0.244 0.221 SERR 0.023 0.019 0.015 0.012 EPS 0.925 0.912 0.911 0.908 NSS 21.8 23.7 26.2 27.9 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1813 1979 167 0.973 0.166 -0.126 3.270 0.163 0.301 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.253 0.133 0.111 54 113 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.25 0.45 1.00 1.11 1.56 6.02 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.07 0.00 0.88 0.95 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.299 0.194 0.108 0.134 0.092 0.204 0.040 0.132 0.022 -0.110 PACF 0.299 0.114 0.025 0.086 0.023 0.162 -0.082 0.100 -0.058 -0.179 95% C.L. 0.155 0.168 0.173 0.175 0.177 0.179 0.184 0.184 0.186 0.187 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.102 0.265 0.116 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.316 0.210 0.117 0.143 0.087 0.216 0.024 0.143 0.016 -0.118 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.316 2 0.277 0.123 3 0.274 0.116 0.023 4 0.272 0.106 -0.002 0.090 5 0.271 0.106 -0.003 0.087 0.009 6 0.270 0.090 -0.002 0.069 -0.039 0.178 7 0.290 0.086 0.006 0.068 -0.029 0.209 -0.115 8 0.304 0.060 0.009 0.060 -0.029 0.198 -0.150 0.122 9 0.313 0.049 0.024 0.058 -0.025 0.199 -0.146 0.145 -0.075 10 0.299 0.077 -0.004 0.096 -0.030 0.210 -0.141 0.155 -0.014 -0.194 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1309.97 1294.46 1293.93 1295.84 1296.48 1298.47 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1295.10 1294.88 1294.37 1295.43 1291.05 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.277 0.123 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 11.31 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 112.75 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.277 0.199 0.089 0.049 0.025 0.013 0.007 0.003 0.002 0.0009 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 580011 2 0.336 0.433 0.214 2 580012 2 0.191 0.356 0.141 3 580021 2 0.065 0.237 -0.050 4 580022 2 0.115 0.283 -0.047 5 580031 2 0.116 0.359 -0.098 6 580032 2 0.279 0.406 0.146 7 580041 2 0.471 0.722 -0.058 8 580042 2 0.495 0.643 0.083 9 580051 2 0.674 0.881 -0.080 10 580052 2 0.514 0.740 -0.034 11 580061 2 0.448 0.517 0.195 12 580062 2 0.440 0.696 -0.053 13 580071 2 0.501 0.527 0.216 14 580072 2 0.334 0.548 0.045 15 580081 2 0.191 0.441 -0.017 16 580082 2 0.289 0.483 0.075 17 580091 2 0.288 0.451 0.138 18 580092 2 0.507 0.500 0.269 19 580101 2 0.321 0.483 0.110 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 580102 2 0.292 0.457 0.109 21 580111 2 0.199 0.385 0.115 22 580112 2 0.423 0.477 0.230 23 580121 2 0.221 0.407 0.110 24 580122 2 0.306 0.517 0.056 25 580131 2 0.149 0.354 0.068 26 580132 2 0.145 0.326 0.092 27 580141 2 0.429 0.593 0.089 28 580142 2 0.406 0.602 0.053 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.327 0.494 0.076 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.151 0.147 0.101 MEDIAN 2 0.313 0.480 0.086 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.248 0.176 0.165 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.065 0.237 -0.098 LOWER HINGE 2 0.195 0.395 -0.025 UPPER HINGE 2 0.444 0.571 0.140 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.674 0.881 0.269 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 580011 1831 1979 149 1.000 0.185 -0.343 3.272 0.221 -0.013 2 580012 1840 1979 140 1.000 0.211 -0.103 3.383 0.249 -0.013 3 580021 1923 1979 57 1.000 0.182 0.342 2.902 0.202 0.004 4 580022 1920 1979 60 1.000 0.189 0.271 2.458 0.225 -0.010 5 580031 1912 1979 68 1.000 0.120 0.040 3.973 0.135 -0.004 6 580032 1917 1979 63 1.000 0.117 -0.510 3.381 0.134 0.035 7 580041 1870 1979 110 1.000 0.155 0.227 3.039 0.174 -0.007 8 580042 1876 1979 104 1.000 0.164 0.193 3.199 0.188 0.000 9 580051 1845 1979 135 1.000 0.233 0.621 3.494 0.252 -0.011 10 580052 1845 1979 135 1.000 0.247 0.522 4.213 0.271 -0.001 11 580061 1850 1979 130 1.000 0.257 -0.162 3.323 0.276 0.024 12 580062 1888 1979 92 1.000 0.224 0.486 6.020 0.239 -0.012 13 580071 1813 1979 167 1.000 0.242 0.192 4.663 0.253 0.046 14 580072 1816 1979 164 1.000 0.215 0.699 5.448 0.242 0.003 15 580081 1820 1979 160 1.000 0.332 0.714 4.976 0.358 0.002 16 580082 1827 1979 153 1.000 0.351 0.231 3.613 0.390 -0.002 17 580091 1846 1979 134 1.000 0.298 0.199 4.784 0.338 -0.001 18 580092 1831 1979 149 1.002 0.274 0.154 6.712 0.309 -0.017 19 580101 1833 1979 147 1.000 0.267 0.358 4.123 0.309 -0.021 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 580102 1830 1979 150 1.003 0.311 0.990 6.053 0.319 0.014 21 580111 1830 1979 150 1.000 0.234 0.203 3.669 0.265 0.002 22 580112 1849 1979 131 1.000 0.263 0.415 3.796 0.294 -0.025 23 580121 1832 1979 148 1.000 0.353 0.100 3.166 0.430 -0.007 24 580122 1826 1979 154 1.000 0.312 0.281 3.792 0.369 -0.002 25 580131 1846 1979 134 1.000 0.332 0.310 3.625 0.390 -0.001 26 580132 1837 1979 143 1.000 0.334 0.158 3.116 0.378 0.010 27 580141 1834 1979 146 1.000 0.184 0.188 2.972 0.211 0.001 28 580142 1825 1979 155 1.000 0.173 0.327 3.992 0.198 0.003 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 130 1.000 0.241 0.254 3.970 0.272 0.000 STANDARD DEVIATION 32 0.001 0.069 0.311 1.053 0.079 0.015 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 141 1.000 0.238 0.229 3.647 0.259 -0.001 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 30 0.000 0.120 0.231 1.203 0.113 0.013 MINIMUM VALUE 56 1.000 0.117 -0.510 2.458 0.134 -0.025 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 120 1.000 0.184 0.156 3.235 0.216 -0.011 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 150 1.000 0.305 0.386 4.438 0.329 0.003 MAXIMUM VALUE 167 1.003 0.353 0.990 6.712 0.430 0.046 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 378 0.324 0.179 0.009 0.143 2.723 -0.158 0.848 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.158 SERIES 580031 AND 580082 68 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.848 SERIES 580131 AND 580132 134 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 67.27 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 136. 231. 276. 351. RBAR 0.521 0.410 0.361 0.329 SDEV 0.194 0.241 0.187 0.173 SERR 0.017 0.016 0.011 0.009 EPS 0.960 0.943 0.937 0.932 NSS 21.8 23.7 26.2 27.9 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1813 1979 167 0.990 0.154 -0.335 3.604 0.190 -0.185 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.130 0.060 0.116 60 107 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.29 0.59 1.01 1.12 1.71 9.32 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.07 0.00 0.88 0.95 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.184 -0.054 -0.048 0.035 -0.046 0.170 -0.104 0.149 0.014 -0.153 PACF -0.184 -0.091 -0.079 0.005 -0.049 0.159 -0.047 0.155 0.083 -0.137 95% C.L. 0.155 0.160 0.160 0.161 0.161 0.161 0.165 0.167 0.170 0.170 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.042 -0.184 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.007 -0.014 -0.079 0.028 -0.017 0.170 -0.043 0.145 0.004 -0.150 PACF -0.007 -0.014 -0.079 0.027 -0.019 0.165 -0.040 0.152 0.027 -0.166 95% C.L. 0.155 0.155 0.155 0.156 0.156 0.156 0.160 0.161 0.164 0.164 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.007 -0.007 -0.014 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1813 1979 167 0.991 0.159 -0.140 3.320 0.151 0.296 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.294 0.183 0.033 0.083 0.054 0.186 0.041 0.134 -0.002 -0.135 PACF 0.294 0.106 -0.051 0.075 0.021 0.163 -0.062 0.103 -0.062 -0.192 95% C.L. 0.155 0.168 0.172 0.172 0.173 0.174 0.179 0.179 0.181 0.181 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.097 0.294 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.34 MINUTES