RUN: SWIT001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWIT136P.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWIT136P.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 580 1 Chable d.trois besses VS LATEWOOD_PERCENT PCAB - 580 2 Switzerland Norway spruce 1520 4607-711 1813 1979 - 580 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES --- NO GAPS IN DATA FOUND --- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 580011 1831 1979 149 2.175 0.610 0.937 4.355 0.248 0.376 2 580012 1840 1979 140 2.078 0.583 0.461 3.833 0.240 0.445 3 580021 1923 1979 57 1.308 0.403 1.135 5.551 0.247 0.445 4 580022 1920 1979 60 1.183 0.329 0.815 5.443 0.268 0.344 5 580031 1912 1979 68 1.376 0.289 0.743 4.023 0.196 0.311 6 580032 1917 1979 63 1.621 0.469 0.348 2.778 0.239 0.390 7 580041 1870 1979 110 1.273 0.461 0.537 3.094 0.288 0.489 8 580042 1876 1979 104 1.316 0.428 0.462 3.060 0.310 0.271 9 580051 1845 1979 135 1.695 0.581 1.189 4.944 0.253 0.508 10 580052 1845 1979 135 2.161 0.776 1.071 4.657 0.263 0.445 11 580061 1850 1979 130 2.302 0.689 0.645 3.369 0.243 0.492 12 580062 1888 1979 92 2.681 0.796 1.851 12.104 0.222 0.356 13 580071 1813 1979 167 2.382 1.536 0.984 2.812 0.321 0.804 14 580072 1816 1979 164 1.638 0.852 2.047 7.840 0.299 0.688 15 580081 1820 1979 160 2.323 0.969 2.293 11.095 0.290 0.303 16 580082 1827 1979 153 2.729 1.025 1.623 7.068 0.315 0.204 17 580091 1846 1979 134 1.757 0.796 2.410 10.577 0.319 0.217 18 580092 1831 1979 149 2.138 1.087 2.195 9.772 0.270 0.567 19 580101 1833 1979 147 1.704 0.511 1.158 6.438 0.285 0.075 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 580102 1830 1979 150 1.736 0.520 0.622 3.659 0.286 0.312 21 580111 1830 1979 150 1.994 0.614 0.986 4.529 0.253 0.393 22 580112 1849 1979 131 2.116 0.642 0.970 4.293 0.272 0.310 23 580121 1832 1979 148 3.090 1.226 1.924 8.410 0.272 0.426 24 580122 1826 1979 154 2.411 0.791 1.915 10.184 0.284 0.289 25 580131 1846 1979 134 2.740 0.824 0.644 3.842 0.295 0.155 26 580132 1837 1979 143 2.590 0.949 0.493 3.636 0.347 0.342 27 580141 1834 1979 146 1.901 0.457 0.242 2.816 0.210 0.435 28 580142 1825 1979 155 1.923 0.381 -0.022 3.063 0.200 0.266 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 28 FROM 1813 TO 1979 167 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 130 2.012 0.700 1.096 5.616 0.269 0.381 STANDARD DEVIATION 32 0.502 0.291 0.678 2.862 0.037 0.152 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 141 2.036 0.628 0.977 4.442 0.271 0.366 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 30 0.686 0.373 1.158 3.951 0.048 0.150 MINIMUM VALUE 56 1.183 0.289 -0.022 2.778 0.196 0.075 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 120 1.667 0.465 0.579 3.502 0.245 0.296 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 150 2.352 0.838 1.737 7.454 0.293 0.445 MAXIMUM VALUE 167 3.090 1.536 2.410 12.104 0.347 0.804 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 378 0.228 0.216 0.011 -0.431 3.018 -0.416 0.768 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.416 SERIES 580032 AND 580092 63 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.768 SERIES 580021 AND 580022 57 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 67.27 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 136. 231. 276. 351. RBAR 0.470 0.302 0.279 0.185 SDEV 0.182 0.230 0.166 0.217 SERR 0.016 0.015 0.010 0.012 EPS 0.951 0.911 0.910 0.864 NSS 21.8 23.7 26.2 27.9 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1813 1979 167 1.896 0.505 0.043 3.835 0.189 0.548 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.873 0.497 -0.301 86 81 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.40 0.84 1.00 1.09 1.93 5.21 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.07 0.00 0.89 0.96 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 142. 30. 57. 120. 150. 167. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.545 0.481 0.410 0.488 0.428 0.479 0.469 0.506 0.399 0.336 PACF 0.545 0.263 0.113 0.263 0.075 0.179 0.135 0.152 -0.037 -0.101 95% C.L. 0.155 0.195 0.222 0.239 0.262 0.278 0.298 0.315 0.334 0.345 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.452 0.317 0.172 0.015 0.311 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 580011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00053942 2.21535563 2 580012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00576655 1.67160130 3 580021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00830568 1.06755638 4 580022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00808919 0.93644631 5 580031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00600145 1.16912639 6 580032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00754224 1.37960064 7 580041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00473877 1.01036191 8 580042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00195375 1.41901422 9 580051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00273086 1.50978327 10 580052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00200985 2.02466345 11 580061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00908217 2.89665127 12 580062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01513131 3.38501906 13 580071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01374836 1.22687399 14 580072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00550150 1.18429673 15 580081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00312765 2.07122397 16 580082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00238028 2.91197467 17 580091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00388733 2.01940966 18 580092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00565960 2.56218839 19 580101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00039464 1.67487836 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 580102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00179132 1.87091100 21 580111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00344620 1.73341203 22 580112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00234170 1.96163118 23 580121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00223298 3.25649214 24 580122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00465382 2.04991341 25 580131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00118066 2.66015601 26 580132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00929918 1.91996944 27 580141 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00215727 1.74226260 28 580142 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00229580 1.74408877 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 580011 1831 1979 149 1.000 0.280 0.924 4.340 0.246 0.374 2 580012 1840 1979 140 0.999 0.257 0.388 3.179 0.238 0.336 3 580021 1923 1979 57 0.998 0.293 1.663 7.203 0.243 0.379 4 580022 1920 1979 60 0.999 0.260 1.440 6.881 0.263 0.196 5 580031 1912 1979 68 1.000 0.188 0.562 3.653 0.193 0.150 6 580032 1917 1979 63 0.999 0.282 0.656 3.305 0.236 0.296 7 580041 1870 1979 110 0.998 0.329 0.393 3.142 0.285 0.405 8 580042 1876 1979 104 1.000 0.318 0.319 2.835 0.307 0.253 9 580051 1845 1979 135 0.999 0.340 1.358 5.475 0.252 0.495 10 580052 1845 1979 135 1.000 0.356 1.036 4.505 0.261 0.440 11 580061 1850 1979 130 1.000 0.252 0.131 2.641 0.241 0.307 12 580062 1888 1979 92 1.001 0.246 1.087 7.116 0.219 0.243 13 580071 1813 1979 167 0.979 0.538 1.050 3.216 0.319 0.734 14 580072 1816 1979 164 0.997 0.479 2.148 8.757 0.298 0.664 15 580081 1820 1979 160 0.999 0.411 2.300 10.763 0.288 0.284 16 580082 1827 1979 153 1.000 0.372 1.590 7.001 0.313 0.196 17 580091 1846 1979 134 0.999 0.436 2.364 10.020 0.317 0.195 18 580092 1831 1979 149 0.997 0.482 2.196 9.604 0.268 0.545 19 580101 1833 1979 147 1.000 0.301 1.176 6.374 0.283 0.078 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 580102 1830 1979 150 1.000 0.292 0.481 3.505 0.284 0.285 21 580111 1830 1979 150 1.000 0.303 1.225 5.332 0.252 0.361 22 580112 1849 1979 131 1.000 0.302 1.037 4.407 0.270 0.298 23 580121 1832 1979 148 1.000 0.392 1.856 8.161 0.271 0.410 24 580122 1826 1979 154 0.999 0.318 2.116 10.974 0.282 0.233 25 580131 1846 1979 134 1.000 0.302 0.691 3.922 0.293 0.154 26 580132 1837 1979 143 0.999 0.348 0.678 3.619 0.344 0.234 27 580141 1834 1979 146 1.000 0.237 0.315 2.928 0.209 0.413 28 580142 1825 1979 155 1.000 0.191 -0.065 2.950 0.198 0.202 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 130 0.999 0.325 1.111 5.565 0.267 0.327 STANDARD DEVIATION 32 0.004 0.085 0.707 2.648 0.037 0.152 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 141 1.000 0.303 1.044 4.456 0.269 0.297 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 30 0.001 0.093 1.105 3.899 0.048 0.190 MINIMUM VALUE 56 0.979 0.188 -0.065 2.641 0.193 0.078 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 120 0.999 0.270 0.522 3.261 0.242 0.217 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 150 1.000 0.364 1.626 7.159 0.291 0.407 MAXIMUM VALUE 167 1.001 0.538 2.364 10.974 0.344 0.734 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 580011 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 580012 -67 93 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 580021 -67 38 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 580022 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 580031 -67 45 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 580032 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 580041 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 580042 -67 69 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 580051 -67 90 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 580052 -67 90 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 580061 -67 87 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 580062 -67 61 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 580071 -67 111 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 580072 -67 109 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 580081 -67 107 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 580082 -67 102 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 580091 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 580092 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 580101 -67 98 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 580102 -67 100 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 580111 -67 100 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 580112 -67 87 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 580121 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 580122 -67 103 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 580131 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 580132 -67 95 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 27 580141 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 28 580142 -67 103 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 580011 1831 1979 149 0.998 0.232 0.538 3.556 0.246 0.151 2 580012 1840 1979 140 0.999 0.244 0.512 3.396 0.239 0.230 3 580021 1923 1979 57 0.998 0.214 1.055 5.887 0.242 0.000 4 580022 1920 1979 60 0.998 0.241 1.155 5.364 0.262 0.072 5 580031 1912 1979 68 0.999 0.179 0.522 3.449 0.193 0.056 6 580032 1917 1979 63 0.996 0.243 1.015 5.473 0.234 0.042 7 580041 1870 1979 110 0.995 0.255 0.399 4.294 0.285 0.006 8 580042 1876 1979 104 0.997 0.296 0.556 4.446 0.306 0.101 9 580051 1845 1979 135 0.998 0.260 0.806 4.043 0.251 0.233 10 580052 1845 1979 135 0.997 0.294 1.035 4.175 0.261 0.198 11 580061 1850 1979 130 0.999 0.247 0.111 2.654 0.241 0.279 12 580062 1888 1979 92 0.999 0.229 0.539 4.855 0.219 0.189 13 580071 1813 1979 167 0.988 0.379 0.880 4.462 0.318 0.352 14 580072 1816 1979 164 0.994 0.417 1.681 6.607 0.297 0.567 15 580081 1820 1979 160 0.998 0.346 2.004 8.988 0.288 0.109 16 580082 1827 1979 153 0.998 0.331 1.418 5.448 0.313 0.027 17 580091 1846 1979 134 0.996 0.377 2.109 8.197 0.316 0.059 18 580092 1831 1979 149 0.991 0.322 1.912 8.983 0.268 0.218 19 580101 1833 1979 147 0.996 0.270 1.340 6.514 0.283 -0.117 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 580102 1830 1979 150 0.996 0.259 0.516 3.501 0.284 0.107 21 580111 1830 1979 150 0.997 0.264 1.007 4.563 0.252 0.182 22 580112 1849 1979 131 0.997 0.262 0.682 3.749 0.270 0.122 23 580121 1832 1979 148 0.991 0.313 1.628 7.640 0.271 0.202 24 580122 1826 1979 154 0.999 0.292 1.734 8.937 0.282 0.152 25 580131 1846 1979 134 0.998 0.290 0.659 3.867 0.293 0.105 26 580132 1837 1979 143 0.999 0.348 0.874 4.476 0.344 0.215 27 580141 1834 1979 146 0.999 0.217 0.347 3.181 0.209 0.277 28 580142 1825 1979 155 1.000 0.186 -0.071 3.053 0.198 0.148 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 130 0.997 0.279 0.963 5.134 0.267 0.153 STANDARD DEVIATION 32 0.003 0.059 0.580 1.906 0.037 0.129 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 141 0.998 0.263 0.877 4.469 0.269 0.150 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 30 0.003 0.076 0.849 2.548 0.049 0.151 MINIMUM VALUE 56 0.988 0.179 -0.071 2.654 0.193 -0.117 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 120 0.996 0.242 0.530 3.652 0.242 0.066 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 150 0.999 0.318 1.379 6.200 0.291 0.217 MAXIMUM VALUE 167 1.000 0.417 2.109 8.988 0.344 0.567 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 378 0.219 0.172 0.009 0.057 2.923 -0.318 0.733 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.318 SERIES 580032 AND 580111 63 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.733 SERIES 580021 AND 580022 57 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 67.27 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 136. 231. 276. 351. RBAR 0.381 0.308 0.280 0.187 SDEV 0.206 0.221 0.161 0.183 SERR 0.018 0.015 0.010 0.010 EPS 0.931 0.913 0.910 0.865 NSS 21.8 23.7 26.2 27.9 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1813 1979 167 0.985 0.182 0.249 3.283 0.192 0.100 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.460 0.190 0.021 79 88 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.35 0.96 1.00 1.11 2.07 9.36 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.09 0.00 0.88 0.97 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.099 -0.042 -0.109 0.113 -0.024 0.029 0.067 0.158 0.005 -0.118 PACF 0.099 -0.052 -0.100 0.135 -0.061 0.038 0.088 0.123 -0.003 -0.106 95% C.L. 0.155 0.156 0.157 0.158 0.160 0.160 0.160 0.161 0.165 0.165 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.048 -0.074 -0.164 0.104 -0.055 0.088 0.073 0.169 -0.046 -0.080 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.048 2 0.052 -0.077 3 0.040 -0.069 -0.158 4 0.058 -0.061 -0.162 0.117 5 0.069 -0.076 -0.168 0.122 -0.093 6 0.078 -0.087 -0.153 0.129 -0.099 0.090 7 0.069 -0.077 -0.165 0.143 -0.091 0.083 0.093 8 0.056 -0.089 -0.152 0.123 -0.068 0.094 0.083 0.143 9 0.057 -0.089 -0.151 0.122 -0.067 0.093 0.082 0.144 -0.008 10 0.057 -0.081 -0.146 0.127 -0.070 0.100 0.074 0.139 -0.005 -0.056 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1272.83 1274.44 1275.46 1273.25 1272.95 1273.50 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1274.13 1274.68 1273.23 1275.22 1276.70 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 0 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 580011 0 0.023 2 580012 0 0.056 3 580021 0 0.000 4 580022 0 0.005 5 580031 0 0.003 6 580032 0 0.002 7 580041 0 0.000 8 580042 0 0.010 9 580051 0 0.055 10 580052 0 0.042 11 580061 0 0.079 12 580062 0 0.042 13 580071 0 0.126 14 580072 0 0.323 15 580081 0 0.012 16 580082 0 0.001 17 580091 0 0.004 18 580092 0 0.050 19 580101 0 0.014 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 580102 0 0.011 21 580111 0 0.034 22 580112 0 0.015 23 580121 0 0.041 24 580122 0 0.023 25 580131 0 0.011 26 580132 0 0.047 27 580141 0 0.077 28 580142 0 0.022 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 0 0.040 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.063 MEDIAN 0 0.023 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.040 MINIMUM VALUE 0 0.000 LOWER HINGE 0 0.008 UPPER HINGE 0 0.048 MAXIMUM VALUE 0 0.323 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 580011 1831 1979 149 1.000 0.232 0.538 3.556 0.245 0.151 2 580012 1840 1979 140 1.000 0.244 0.512 3.396 0.238 0.230 3 580021 1923 1979 57 1.000 0.214 1.055 5.887 0.241 0.000 4 580022 1920 1979 60 1.000 0.241 1.155 5.364 0.262 0.072 5 580031 1912 1979 68 1.000 0.179 0.522 3.449 0.193 0.056 6 580032 1917 1979 63 1.000 0.243 1.015 5.473 0.233 0.042 7 580041 1870 1979 110 1.000 0.255 0.399 4.294 0.283 0.006 8 580042 1876 1979 104 1.000 0.296 0.556 4.446 0.305 0.101 9 580051 1845 1979 135 1.000 0.260 0.806 4.043 0.251 0.233 10 580052 1845 1979 135 1.000 0.294 1.035 4.175 0.260 0.198 11 580061 1850 1979 130 1.000 0.247 0.111 2.654 0.241 0.279 12 580062 1888 1979 92 1.000 0.229 0.539 4.855 0.219 0.189 13 580071 1813 1979 167 1.000 0.379 0.880 4.462 0.314 0.352 14 580072 1816 1979 164 1.000 0.417 1.681 6.607 0.295 0.567 15 580081 1820 1979 160 1.000 0.346 2.004 8.988 0.288 0.109 16 580082 1827 1979 153 1.000 0.331 1.418 5.448 0.312 0.027 17 580091 1846 1979 134 1.000 0.377 2.109 8.197 0.315 0.059 18 580092 1831 1979 149 1.000 0.322 1.912 8.983 0.266 0.218 19 580101 1833 1979 147 1.000 0.270 1.340 6.514 0.282 -0.117 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 580102 1830 1979 150 1.000 0.259 0.516 3.501 0.283 0.107 21 580111 1830 1979 150 1.000 0.264 1.007 4.563 0.251 0.182 22 580112 1849 1979 131 1.000 0.262 0.682 3.749 0.269 0.122 23 580121 1832 1979 148 1.000 0.313 1.628 7.640 0.268 0.202 24 580122 1826 1979 154 1.000 0.292 1.734 8.937 0.282 0.152 25 580131 1846 1979 134 1.000 0.290 0.659 3.867 0.292 0.105 26 580132 1837 1979 143 1.000 0.348 0.874 4.476 0.344 0.215 27 580141 1834 1979 146 1.000 0.217 0.347 3.181 0.208 0.277 28 580142 1825 1979 155 1.000 0.186 -0.071 3.053 0.198 0.148 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 130 1.000 0.279 0.963 5.134 0.266 0.153 STANDARD DEVIATION 32 0.000 0.059 0.580 1.906 0.037 0.129 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 141 1.000 0.263 0.877 4.469 0.267 0.150 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 30 0.000 0.076 0.849 2.548 0.049 0.151 MINIMUM VALUE 56 1.000 0.179 -0.071 2.654 0.193 -0.117 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 120 1.000 0.242 0.530 3.652 0.241 0.066 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 150 1.000 0.318 1.379 6.200 0.290 0.217 MAXIMUM VALUE 167 1.000 0.417 2.109 8.988 0.344 0.567 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 378 0.219 0.172 0.009 0.057 2.923 -0.318 0.733 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.318 SERIES 580032 AND 580111 63 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.733 SERIES 580021 AND 580022 57 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 67.27 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 136. 231. 276. 351. RBAR 0.381 0.308 0.280 0.187 SDEV 0.206 0.221 0.161 0.183 SERR 0.018 0.015 0.010 0.010 EPS 0.931 0.913 0.910 0.865 NSS 21.8 23.7 26.2 27.9 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1813 1979 167 0.988 0.182 0.258 3.283 0.191 0.101 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.460 0.190 0.020 78 89 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.36 0.98 1.00 1.11 2.09 9.23 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.09 0.00 0.88 0.97 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.100 -0.040 -0.108 0.115 -0.022 0.031 0.068 0.157 0.006 -0.119 PACF 0.100 -0.051 -0.100 0.137 -0.059 0.039 0.089 0.122 -0.003 -0.107 95% C.L. 0.155 0.156 0.157 0.158 0.160 0.160 0.161 0.161 0.165 0.165 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1813 1979 167 0.988 0.182 0.258 3.283 0.191 0.101 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.100 -0.040 -0.108 0.115 -0.022 0.031 0.068 0.157 0.006 -0.119 PACF 0.100 -0.051 -0.100 0.137 -0.059 0.039 0.089 0.122 -0.003 -0.107 95% C.L. 0.155 0.156 0.157 0.158 0.160 0.160 0.161 0.161 0.165 0.165 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.26 MINUTES