RUN: SWIT001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWIT137E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWIT137E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 586 1 Eponde VS WIDTH_EARLY PISY - 586 2 Switzerland Scots pine, Scotch pine 880 4608-711 1826 1979 - 586 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 586011 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1977 1978 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 586021 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1973 1973 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 586022 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1973 1975 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 586031 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1976 1976 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 6 586032 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1974 1974 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 586061 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1978 1978 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 586062 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1978 1978 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 586082 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1976 1976 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 586091 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1976 1976 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 586101 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1971 1971 / 1976 1976 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 20 586102 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1976 1976 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 22 586112 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1976 1976 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 24 586122 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1976 1976 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 29 586151 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1976 1976 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 30 586152 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1976 1976 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 31 586161 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1921 1921 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 32 586162 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1921 1921 / 1973 1973 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 35 586181 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1951 1951 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 36 586191 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1976 1976 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 37 586192 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1976 1976 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 39 586202 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1976 1976 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 586011 1869 1978 110 0.771 0.603 2.896 11.938 0.327 0.818 2 586012 1854 1973 120 0.782 0.451 1.133 4.384 0.296 0.755 3 586021 1847 1976 130 0.458 0.341 1.146 3.511 0.384 0.831 4 586022 1855 1975 121 0.562 0.384 0.800 2.904 0.318 0.837 5 586031 1856 1979 124 1.111 0.663 0.589 3.379 0.335 0.712 6 586032 1862 1979 118 0.886 0.413 0.584 4.016 0.305 0.714 7 586041 1857 1977 121 0.442 0.239 0.386 2.676 0.371 0.667 8 586042 1852 1979 128 0.516 0.233 1.373 5.627 0.301 0.632 9 586051 1931 1979 49 1.833 0.584 -0.190 2.659 0.263 0.609 10 586052 1937 1979 43 1.448 0.678 0.686 3.124 0.270 0.756 11 586061 1857 1979 123 0.710 0.398 0.668 3.019 0.312 0.703 12 586062 1856 1979 124 0.695 0.367 0.710 3.193 0.293 0.698 13 586071 1859 1979 121 0.578 0.274 1.121 3.637 0.228 0.793 14 586072 1860 1979 120 0.644 0.296 0.654 3.119 0.256 0.775 15 586081 1858 1979 122 0.929 0.546 1.897 7.715 0.326 0.671 16 586082 1865 1979 115 0.828 0.595 1.613 4.855 0.264 0.882 17 586091 1858 1979 122 0.514 0.472 1.863 5.669 0.364 0.846 18 586092 1858 1979 122 0.560 0.370 1.633 6.112 0.392 0.666 19 586101 1885 1979 95 0.543 0.416 0.923 2.681 0.301 0.855 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 586102 1885 1979 95 0.598 0.389 1.523 6.370 0.310 0.720 21 586111 1880 1979 100 0.669 0.295 0.352 3.860 0.338 0.690 22 586112 1884 1979 96 0.564 0.309 1.059 4.505 0.313 0.667 23 586121 1826 1973 148 0.671 0.663 2.416 9.254 0.266 0.885 24 586122 1826 1979 154 0.653 0.655 1.935 5.969 0.295 0.872 25 586131 1849 1979 131 0.647 0.407 1.377 4.562 0.311 0.840 26 586132 1858 1979 122 0.750 0.421 0.914 3.580 0.293 0.781 27 586141 1891 1979 89 0.622 0.271 0.478 2.715 0.314 0.592 28 586142 1899 1979 81 1.030 0.408 1.095 4.585 0.273 0.730 29 586151 1857 1979 123 0.893 0.515 0.837 3.274 0.278 0.759 30 586152 1863 1979 117 0.912 0.779 1.705 4.872 0.309 0.846 31 586161 1859 1972 114 0.685 0.623 1.425 3.687 0.313 0.898 32 586162 1853 1973 121 0.847 0.653 1.714 5.049 0.262 0.854 33 586171 1849 1975 127 0.729 0.426 0.989 3.084 0.363 0.664 34 586172 1895 1975 81 0.459 0.316 1.708 5.279 0.364 0.675 35 586181 1856 1972 117 0.506 0.529 1.942 5.789 0.388 0.833 36 586191 1878 1979 102 0.593 0.284 0.827 4.862 0.281 0.599 37 586192 1859 1979 121 0.684 0.362 0.972 3.961 0.272 0.749 38 586201 1867 1972 106 0.513 0.286 0.926 3.578 0.396 0.690 39 586202 1865 1979 115 0.665 0.470 1.676 5.997 0.388 0.749 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 39 FROM 1826 TO 1979 154 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 112 0.731 0.446 1.189 4.591 0.314 0.752 STANDARD DEVIATION 21 0.270 0.144 0.616 1.901 0.043 0.087 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 119 0.669 0.413 1.095 4.016 0.310 0.749 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 18 0.242 0.237 0.900 2.220 0.057 0.152 MINIMUM VALUE 43 0.442 0.233 -0.190 2.659 0.228 0.592 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 103 0.563 0.329 0.755 3.234 0.279 0.682 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 122 0.805 0.565 1.655 5.453 0.336 0.835 MAXIMUM VALUE 153 1.833 0.779 2.896 11.938 0.396 0.898 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 741 0.504 0.231 0.008 -0.668 3.060 -0.308 0.911 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.308 SERIES 586051 AND 586181 42 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.911 SERIES 586091 AND 586162 116 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 65.00 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1851. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 1. 36. 465. 666. 300. RBAR 0.703 0.629 0.460 0.391 0.540 SDEV 0.000 0.217 0.296 0.254 0.245 SERR 0.000 0.036 0.014 0.010 0.014 EPS 0.966 0.981 0.968 0.960 0.978 NSS 11.9 29.9 35.8 37.8 37.7 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1826 1979 154 0.836 0.541 1.590 5.535 0.230 0.865 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.540 0.229 0.155 93 61 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.68 1.33 1.00 1.24 2.57 19.17 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.99 0.10 0.82 0.90 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 120. 18. 43. 104. 122. 154. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.859 0.744 0.661 0.602 0.556 0.509 0.451 0.429 0.415 0.417 PACF 0.859 0.022 0.067 0.059 0.044 -0.005 -0.044 0.106 0.035 0.090 95% C.L. 0.161 0.254 0.305 0.340 0.367 0.388 0.405 0.418 0.429 0.440 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.762 0.769 0.117 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 586011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00034398 0.73807204 2 586012 1 1.28144562 0.03790442 0.00000000 0.50818384 3 586021 1 1.15162051 0.02076122 0.00000000 0.06127469 4 586022 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 586031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01162260 1.82917380 6 586032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00583848 1.22726691 7 586041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00349675 0.65503716 8 586042 1 0.88220567 0.16036178 0.00000000 0.47600004 9 586051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00259388 1.76801026 10 586052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.03947448 2.31634545 11 586061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00634972 1.09883857 12 586062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00463648 0.98028922 13 586071 1 0.89964920 0.02984607 0.00000000 0.33907899 14 586072 1 0.75356013 0.02066248 0.00000000 0.36834097 15 586081 1 1.56814528 0.03444204 0.00000000 0.56754547 16 586082 1 2.09353423 0.04316677 0.00000000 0.41209680 17 586091 1 1.64182961 0.05049131 0.00000000 0.25110042 18 586092 1 1.06340849 0.06260711 0.00000000 0.42466548 19 586101 -67 63 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 586102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01131499 1.13575280 21 586111 1 0.86795080 0.14841253 0.00000000 0.61515051 22 586112 1 0.97959203 0.06942054 0.00000000 0.41732198 23 586121 1 1.94686174 0.02638735 0.00000000 0.18930742 24 586122 1 1.82626688 0.01963700 0.00000000 0.08019072 25 586131 1 1.58904874 0.06182527 0.00000000 0.45727071 26 586132 1 1.29007244 0.05313859 0.00000000 0.55621648 27 586141 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00444501 0.82171094 28 586142 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00050361 1.05052471 29 586151 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01094859 1.56559432 30 586152 1 2.39708567 0.03258685 0.00000000 0.30017734 31 586161 1 2.09054351 0.03716467 0.00000000 0.20205942 32 586162 1 2.56298637 0.05675427 0.00000000 0.47404933 33 586171 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00431290 1.00484443 34 586172 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00673329 0.73470682 35 586181 1 1.68255198 0.02815736 0.00000000 0.01743438 36 586191 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00350888 0.76834524 37 586192 1 1.32218480 0.09519456 0.00000000 0.56945837 38 586201 1 0.24970196 0.06167815 0.00000000 0.47585702 39 586202 1 1.26280391 0.04403999 0.00000000 0.41786262 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 586011 1869 1978 110 1.000 0.797 2.798 11.599 0.331 0.812 2 586012 1854 1973 120 1.000 0.468 1.571 6.914 0.294 0.710 3 586021 1847 1976 130 0.999 0.396 0.309 2.669 0.380 0.427 4 586022 1855 1975 121 0.995 0.359 0.627 4.021 0.320 0.512 5 586031 1856 1979 124 0.963 0.466 0.385 2.728 0.335 0.705 6 586032 1862 1979 118 0.993 0.411 0.217 3.324 0.308 0.687 7 586041 1857 1977 121 0.983 0.475 0.511 2.783 0.368 0.599 8 586042 1852 1979 128 1.000 0.398 1.306 7.128 0.298 0.547 9 586051 1931 1979 49 1.000 0.319 -0.169 2.642 0.257 0.593 10 586052 1937 1979 43 0.994 0.299 0.180 2.924 0.264 0.455 11 586061 1857 1979 123 0.987 0.495 1.125 4.412 0.315 0.639 12 586062 1856 1979 124 0.989 0.500 0.896 3.105 0.293 0.739 13 586071 1859 1979 121 1.000 0.263 -0.291 2.868 0.228 0.435 14 586072 1860 1979 120 1.000 0.367 0.287 2.936 0.254 0.638 15 586081 1858 1979 122 1.001 0.354 -0.084 3.483 0.324 0.481 16 586082 1865 1979 115 1.003 0.393 0.269 3.511 0.268 0.641 17 586091 1858 1979 122 1.015 0.563 0.771 3.476 0.366 0.726 18 586092 1858 1979 122 0.999 0.518 1.040 4.799 0.390 0.652 19 586101 1885 1979 95 1.006 0.301 -0.203 4.002 0.315 0.271 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 586102 1885 1979 95 1.016 0.331 0.282 3.246 0.307 0.348 21 586111 1880 1979 100 1.000 0.399 -0.220 2.812 0.336 0.602 22 586112 1884 1979 96 1.000 0.439 0.273 3.842 0.313 0.590 23 586121 1826 1973 148 1.034 0.552 0.839 3.012 0.265 0.812 24 586122 1826 1979 154 1.048 0.692 1.289 3.894 0.293 0.881 25 586131 1849 1979 131 1.000 0.403 0.024 2.989 0.310 0.654 26 586132 1858 1979 122 0.999 0.446 0.480 2.757 0.290 0.733 27 586141 1891 1979 89 0.997 0.385 0.340 3.126 0.311 0.555 28 586142 1899 1979 81 1.000 0.397 1.111 4.595 0.269 0.723 29 586151 1857 1979 123 0.991 0.384 1.377 6.428 0.278 0.618 30 586152 1863 1979 117 1.007 0.577 2.397 12.036 0.315 0.735 31 586161 1859 1972 114 1.033 0.580 1.807 8.129 0.323 0.733 32 586162 1853 1973 121 1.004 0.449 1.433 5.994 0.267 0.701 33 586171 1849 1975 127 0.997 0.528 0.977 3.570 0.361 0.632 34 586172 1895 1975 81 1.016 0.549 0.756 2.678 0.361 0.649 35 586181 1856 1972 117 1.006 0.471 0.296 2.662 0.392 0.593 36 586191 1878 1979 102 0.997 0.446 0.131 2.655 0.281 0.637 37 586192 1859 1979 121 0.999 0.437 0.366 3.298 0.274 0.701 38 586201 1867 1972 106 0.999 0.529 0.612 2.742 0.393 0.667 39 586202 1865 1979 115 1.001 0.527 0.616 3.105 0.392 0.691 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 113 1.002 0.453 0.685 4.177 0.314 0.629 STANDARD DEVIATION 21 0.014 0.107 0.695 2.262 0.043 0.125 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 120 1.000 0.446 0.511 3.298 0.311 0.641 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 18 0.006 0.133 0.805 1.376 0.056 0.116 MINIMUM VALUE 42 0.963 0.263 -0.291 2.642 0.228 0.271 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 104 0.997 0.389 0.271 2.840 0.279 0.591 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 122 1.003 0.523 1.076 4.217 0.335 0.708 MAXIMUM VALUE 154 1.048 0.797 2.798 12.036 0.393 0.881 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 586011 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 586012 -67 80 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 586021 -67 87 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 586022 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 586031 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 586032 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 586041 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 586042 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 586051 -67 32 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 586052 -67 28 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 586061 -67 82 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 586062 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 586071 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 586072 -67 80 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 586081 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 586082 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 586091 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 586092 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 586101 -67 63 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 586102 -67 63 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 586111 -67 67 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 586112 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 586121 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 586122 -67 103 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 586131 -67 87 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 586132 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 27 586141 -67 59 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 28 586142 -67 54 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 29 586151 -67 82 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 30 586152 -67 78 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 31 586161 -67 76 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 32 586162 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 33 586171 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 34 586172 -67 54 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 35 586181 -67 78 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 36 586191 -67 68 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 37 586192 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 38 586201 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 39 586202 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 586011 1869 1978 110 0.960 0.591 1.845 7.051 0.328 0.732 2 586012 1854 1973 120 0.987 0.413 1.180 5.216 0.293 0.650 3 586021 1847 1976 130 0.996 0.379 0.242 2.687 0.380 0.392 4 586022 1855 1975 121 0.998 0.355 0.602 3.922 0.320 0.495 5 586031 1856 1979 124 0.992 0.420 1.436 7.943 0.335 0.378 6 586032 1862 1979 118 0.984 0.351 0.011 3.665 0.309 0.537 7 586041 1857 1977 121 0.988 0.389 0.384 3.214 0.369 0.377 8 586042 1852 1979 128 0.996 0.374 0.988 5.589 0.298 0.502 9 586051 1931 1979 49 0.996 0.244 0.033 3.276 0.256 0.210 10 586052 1937 1979 43 0.995 0.272 0.038 3.152 0.262 0.319 11 586061 1857 1979 123 0.981 0.386 0.726 3.631 0.315 0.442 12 586062 1856 1979 124 0.979 0.360 0.498 2.839 0.292 0.488 13 586071 1859 1979 121 0.998 0.254 -0.288 3.029 0.227 0.390 14 586072 1860 1979 120 0.989 0.332 0.239 2.886 0.253 0.579 15 586081 1858 1979 122 0.995 0.329 -0.344 3.473 0.323 0.408 16 586082 1865 1979 115 0.987 0.333 0.034 2.999 0.269 0.546 17 586091 1858 1979 122 0.976 0.440 0.540 3.455 0.365 0.586 18 586092 1858 1979 122 0.988 0.476 0.889 4.196 0.390 0.598 19 586101 1885 1979 95 0.999 0.291 -0.461 3.659 0.315 0.259 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 586102 1885 1979 95 0.998 0.309 0.019 2.986 0.307 0.291 21 586111 1880 1979 100 0.984 0.351 -0.332 2.911 0.336 0.515 22 586112 1884 1979 96 0.977 0.353 -0.018 3.380 0.312 0.454 23 586121 1826 1973 148 0.980 0.378 0.799 4.596 0.265 0.628 24 586122 1826 1979 154 0.972 0.446 0.447 2.904 0.293 0.714 25 586131 1849 1979 131 0.986 0.334 -0.356 3.123 0.311 0.486 26 586132 1858 1979 122 0.988 0.396 0.608 3.801 0.289 0.632 27 586141 1891 1979 89 0.994 0.338 0.114 3.517 0.310 0.396 28 586142 1899 1979 81 0.994 0.273 0.020 3.672 0.268 0.389 29 586151 1857 1979 123 0.992 0.345 1.097 5.336 0.278 0.510 30 586152 1863 1979 117 0.973 0.435 1.721 8.219 0.313 0.613 31 586161 1859 1972 114 0.971 0.421 1.433 6.701 0.323 0.573 32 586162 1853 1973 121 0.984 0.339 0.807 4.741 0.266 0.516 33 586171 1849 1975 127 0.989 0.472 0.644 2.980 0.360 0.570 34 586172 1895 1975 81 0.979 0.440 0.580 2.926 0.358 0.527 35 586181 1856 1972 117 0.989 0.419 -0.055 2.471 0.392 0.533 36 586191 1878 1979 102 0.975 0.367 0.126 2.578 0.282 0.519 37 586192 1859 1979 121 0.982 0.372 0.314 3.509 0.275 0.584 38 586201 1867 1972 106 0.979 0.430 0.308 3.212 0.393 0.501 39 586202 1865 1979 115 0.977 0.468 0.701 4.058 0.392 0.597 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 113 0.986 0.376 0.450 3.936 0.313 0.498 STANDARD DEVIATION 21 0.009 0.069 0.576 1.432 0.043 0.119 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 120 0.987 0.372 0.384 3.473 0.311 0.515 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 18 0.015 0.084 0.736 1.134 0.056 0.180 MINIMUM VALUE 42 0.960 0.244 -0.461 2.471 0.227 0.210 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 104 0.979 0.336 0.026 2.993 0.280 0.402 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 122 0.994 0.420 0.762 4.127 0.336 0.582 MAXIMUM VALUE 154 0.999 0.591 1.845 8.219 0.393 0.732 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 741 0.469 0.136 0.005 -0.223 3.212 0.037 0.854 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.037 SERIES 586031 AND 586122 124 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.854 SERIES 586171 AND 586172 81 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 65.00 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1851. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 1. 36. 465. 666. 300. RBAR 0.706 0.542 0.454 0.499 0.511 SDEV 0.000 0.171 0.202 0.177 0.181 SERR 0.000 0.029 0.009 0.007 0.010 EPS 0.966 0.972 0.968 0.974 0.975 NSS 11.9 29.9 35.8 37.8 37.7 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1826 1979 154 0.978 0.305 -0.005 3.009 0.239 0.601 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.479 0.214 0.065 60 94 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.12 0.19 1.01 1.06 1.26 2.98 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.93 0.10 0.83 0.90 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.597 0.431 0.222 0.150 -0.011 -0.055 -0.154 -0.132 -0.149 -0.098 PACF 0.597 0.116 -0.117 0.037 -0.150 -0.013 -0.103 0.022 -0.022 0.015 95% C.L. 0.161 0.211 0.233 0.238 0.241 0.241 0.241 0.243 0.245 0.248 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.366 0.598 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.501 0.332 0.075 -0.015 -0.204 -0.184 -0.242 -0.149 -0.122 -0.001 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.501 2 0.447 0.108 3 0.466 0.185 -0.172 4 0.460 0.191 -0.156 -0.034 5 0.453 0.160 -0.118 0.057 -0.199 6 0.453 0.160 -0.118 0.057 -0.199 0.000 7 0.453 0.141 -0.113 0.046 -0.184 0.044 -0.096 8 0.455 0.140 -0.109 0.045 -0.182 0.041 -0.104 0.018 9 0.455 0.138 -0.109 0.042 -0.181 0.040 -0.102 0.026 -0.017 10 0.456 0.137 -0.104 0.040 -0.173 0.038 -0.098 0.020 -0.036 0.041 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1426.13 1383.57 1383.77 1381.14 1382.95 1378.74 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1380.74 1381.31 1383.26 1385.21 1386.95 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.501 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 25.13 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 133.56 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.501 0.251 0.126 0.063 0.032 0.016 0.008 0.004 0.002 0.0010 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 586011 1 0.566 0.745 2 586012 1 0.429 0.654 3 586021 1 0.163 0.392 4 586022 1 0.250 0.497 5 586031 1 0.176 0.417 6 586032 1 0.311 0.556 7 586041 1 0.155 0.381 8 586042 1 0.288 0.502 9 586051 1 0.059 0.216 10 586052 1 0.122 0.344 11 586061 1 0.247 0.464 12 586062 1 0.300 0.503 13 586071 1 0.159 0.390 14 586072 1 0.346 0.580 15 586081 1 0.183 0.419 16 586082 1 0.304 0.549 17 586091 1 0.352 0.593 18 586092 1 0.368 0.606 19 586101 1 0.092 0.269 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 586102 1 0.091 0.302 21 586111 1 0.268 0.516 22 586112 1 0.229 0.455 23 586121 1 0.416 0.638 24 586122 1 0.562 0.718 25 586131 1 0.288 0.487 26 586132 1 0.433 0.636 27 586141 1 0.167 0.403 28 586142 1 0.184 0.406 29 586151 1 0.278 0.522 30 586152 1 0.389 0.618 31 586161 1 0.375 0.579 32 586162 1 0.290 0.522 33 586171 1 0.360 0.578 34 586172 1 0.311 0.530 35 586181 1 0.310 0.536 36 586191 1 0.302 0.532 37 586192 1 0.367 0.585 38 586201 1 0.270 0.513 39 586202 1 0.382 0.602 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.286 0.506 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.118 0.117 MEDIAN 1 0.290 0.522 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.180 0.164 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.059 0.216 LOWER HINGE 1 0.184 0.418 UPPER HINGE 1 0.364 0.582 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.566 0.745 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 586011 1869 1978 110 1.000 0.393 1.066 7.096 0.411 0.121 2 586012 1854 1973 120 1.000 0.312 0.582 3.664 0.353 -0.016 3 586021 1847 1976 130 1.000 0.349 0.216 2.724 0.426 -0.041 4 586022 1855 1975 121 1.000 0.308 0.089 3.772 0.377 -0.031 5 586031 1856 1979 124 1.003 0.372 1.087 7.857 0.391 0.081 6 586032 1862 1979 118 1.000 0.288 -0.331 3.601 0.355 -0.041 7 586041 1857 1977 121 1.000 0.358 0.249 3.378 0.438 -0.037 8 586042 1852 1979 128 1.000 0.323 0.955 6.660 0.367 -0.108 9 586051 1931 1979 49 1.000 0.238 -0.044 3.129 0.283 -0.018 10 586052 1937 1979 43 1.000 0.255 -0.030 3.543 0.288 0.030 11 586061 1857 1979 123 1.000 0.342 0.743 4.761 0.391 -0.066 12 586062 1856 1979 124 1.000 0.309 -0.111 3.224 0.379 -0.136 13 586071 1859 1979 121 1.000 0.234 -0.184 2.801 0.261 0.035 14 586072 1860 1979 120 1.000 0.270 0.132 3.502 0.311 -0.069 15 586081 1858 1979 122 1.000 0.298 -0.322 3.498 0.336 0.026 16 586082 1865 1979 115 1.000 0.278 0.246 4.228 0.302 0.030 17 586091 1858 1979 122 1.001 0.349 -0.026 3.533 0.429 -0.005 18 586092 1858 1979 122 1.000 0.378 0.024 3.211 0.481 -0.019 19 586101 1885 1979 95 1.000 0.280 -0.436 3.536 0.346 -0.029 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 586102 1885 1979 95 1.000 0.294 0.053 3.173 0.341 -0.003 21 586111 1880 1979 100 1.000 0.300 -0.506 3.366 0.381 -0.023 22 586112 1884 1979 96 1.000 0.314 -0.267 3.818 0.384 -0.075 23 586121 1826 1973 148 1.000 0.291 0.769 5.086 0.329 -0.074 24 586122 1826 1979 154 1.000 0.310 0.542 3.791 0.350 -0.219 25 586131 1849 1979 131 1.000 0.292 -0.376 3.349 0.369 -0.124 26 586132 1858 1979 122 1.000 0.305 -0.073 3.813 0.351 -0.141 27 586141 1891 1979 89 1.000 0.309 0.119 3.299 0.356 -0.027 28 586142 1899 1979 81 1.000 0.250 -0.095 2.744 0.294 -0.045 29 586151 1857 1979 123 1.000 0.294 0.355 3.538 0.345 -0.035 30 586152 1863 1979 117 1.000 0.342 1.449 8.511 0.377 -0.063 31 586161 1859 1972 114 1.000 0.343 0.541 3.590 0.384 -0.136 32 586162 1853 1973 121 1.000 0.289 0.219 4.906 0.334 -0.076 33 586171 1849 1975 127 1.000 0.384 0.302 3.682 0.450 -0.114 34 586172 1895 1975 81 1.000 0.373 0.648 4.010 0.410 -0.104 35 586181 1856 1972 117 1.000 0.354 0.159 2.704 0.437 -0.092 36 586191 1878 1979 102 1.000 0.308 0.296 3.004 0.355 -0.098 37 586192 1859 1979 121 1.000 0.301 0.658 4.280 0.352 -0.115 38 586201 1867 1972 106 1.000 0.369 -0.256 2.838 0.455 -0.045 39 586202 1865 1979 115 1.000 0.374 0.233 3.381 0.464 -0.102 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 113 1.000 0.316 0.222 3.964 0.370 -0.051 STANDARD DEVIATION 21 0.001 0.041 0.458 1.357 0.052 0.065 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 120 1.000 0.309 0.159 3.538 0.367 -0.045 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 18 0.000 0.058 0.625 0.653 0.057 0.082 MINIMUM VALUE 42 1.000 0.234 -0.506 2.704 0.261 -0.219 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 104 1.000 0.291 -0.084 3.261 0.343 -0.100 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 122 1.000 0.349 0.541 3.914 0.400 -0.018 MAXIMUM VALUE 154 1.003 0.393 1.449 8.511 0.481 0.121 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 741 0.486 0.103 0.004 -0.074 3.195 0.199 0.822 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.199 SERIES 586051 AND 586121 43 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.822 SERIES 586171 AND 586172 81 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 65.00 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1851. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 1. 36. 465. 666. 300. RBAR 0.581 0.575 0.497 0.537 0.495 SDEV 0.000 0.092 0.137 0.126 0.128 SERR 0.000 0.015 0.006 0.005 0.007 EPS 0.943 0.976 0.972 0.978 0.974 NSS 11.9 29.9 35.8 37.8 37.7 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1826 1979 154 0.998 0.236 -0.081 3.919 0.269 -0.019 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.379 0.139 0.074 54 100 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.13 0.38 1.00 1.06 1.44 4.43 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.94 0.09 0.81 0.91 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.019 0.140 -0.071 0.079 -0.106 0.027 -0.175 -0.017 -0.089 0.038 PACF -0.019 0.139 -0.068 0.059 -0.089 0.004 -0.146 -0.039 -0.039 0.017 95% C.L. 0.161 0.161 0.164 0.165 0.166 0.168 0.168 0.173 0.173 0.174 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.003 0.138 -0.067 0.076 -0.104 0.022 -0.174 -0.021 -0.089 0.035 PACF 0.003 0.138 -0.069 0.059 -0.090 0.003 -0.146 -0.036 -0.038 0.017 95% C.L. 0.161 0.161 0.164 0.165 0.166 0.168 0.168 0.172 0.172 0.173 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.019 0.003 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1826 1979 154 0.996 0.280 0.094 3.594 0.226 0.541 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.538 0.346 0.130 0.075 -0.061 -0.082 -0.181 -0.127 -0.118 -0.043 PACF 0.538 0.080 -0.118 0.036 -0.128 -0.014 -0.128 0.037 -0.009 0.028 95% C.L. 0.161 0.202 0.217 0.219 0.220 0.220 0.221 0.225 0.227 0.229 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.295 0.539 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 8.05 MINUTES