RUN: swit FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWIT140E.rwl LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWIT140E.rwl_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 20 10 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 226 1 Riederalp VS Aletschwald WIDTH_EARLY LADE - 226 2 Switzerland European Larch 2000 4624-801 1792 1974 - 226 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES --- NO GAPS IN DATA FOUND --- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 226015 1813 1974 162 0.632 0.207 0.323 3.212 0.284 0.466 2 226016 1846 1974 129 1.060 0.332 0.064 3.099 0.223 0.552 3 226017 1792 1974 183 0.671 0.311 0.895 3.574 0.330 0.609 4 226020 1866 1974 109 0.876 0.237 0.108 3.010 0.209 0.500 5 226039 1859 1974 116 0.844 0.322 -0.131 2.915 0.270 0.641 6 226041 1849 1974 126 0.775 0.220 -0.013 2.888 0.235 0.495 7 226043 1849 1974 126 1.114 0.306 0.174 3.161 0.224 0.495 8 226045 1832 1974 143 0.754 0.321 1.047 4.596 0.264 0.708 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 8 FROM 1792 TO 1974 183 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 137 0.841 0.282 0.308 3.307 0.255 0.558 STANDARD DEVIATION 24 0.172 0.052 0.432 0.564 0.040 0.086 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 127 0.810 0.309 0.141 3.130 0.249 0.526 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 31 0.255 0.093 0.584 0.431 0.054 0.130 MINIMUM VALUE 109 0.632 0.207 -0.131 2.888 0.209 0.466 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 121 0.713 0.229 0.026 2.962 0.224 0.495 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 152 0.968 0.321 0.609 3.393 0.277 0.625 MAXIMUM VALUE 183 1.114 0.332 1.047 4.596 0.330 0.708 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 28 0.412 0.156 0.029 -0.379 3.166 0.045 0.702 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.045 SERIES 226015 AND 226045 143 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.702 SERIES 226043 AND 226045 126 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 66.90 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1830. 1840. 1850. 1860. 1870. 1880. 1890. 1900. 1910. 1920. CORR 1. 1. 3. 15. 21. 28. 28. 28. 28. 28. RBAR 0.848 0.806 0.066 0.089 0.307 0.275 0.321 0.510 0.624 0.643 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.290 0.295 0.254 0.232 0.229 0.166 0.140 0.138 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.168 0.076 0.055 0.044 0.043 0.031 0.026 0.026 EPS 0.931 0.930 0.255 0.398 0.773 0.752 0.791 0.893 0.930 0.935 NSS 2.4 3.2 4.8 6.8 7.7 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 YEAR 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. CORR 28. 28. 28. 28. RBAR 0.646 0.596 0.516 0.648 SDEV 0.169 0.196 0.255 0.122 SERR 0.032 0.037 0.048 0.023 EPS 0.936 0.922 0.895 0.936 NSS 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1792 1974 183 0.796 0.242 0.299 3.207 0.237 0.531 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.313 0.176 0.073 26 157 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.48 1.57 1.01 1.26 2.82 39.74 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.87 0.17 0.00 0.79 0.96 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 128. 32. 109. 121. 152. 183. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.528 0.328 0.254 0.224 0.208 0.092 0.180 0.168 0.121 0.053 PACF 0.528 0.069 0.078 0.069 0.059 -0.097 0.178 0.002 -0.016 -0.059 95% C.L. 0.148 0.184 0.197 0.204 0.209 0.214 0.214 0.218 0.221 0.222 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.282 0.528 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 226015 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00145629 0.51371980 2 226016 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00411393 1.32763803 3 226017 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00185942 0.84243262 4 226020 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00098295 0.92975026 5 226039 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00279479 1.00754726 6 226041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00004481 0.77239239 7 226043 1 0.63036942 0.02310121 0.00000000 0.91115773 8 226045 1 0.99461460 0.04155079 0.00000000 0.59096986 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 226015 1813 1974 162 0.999 0.308 0.248 3.113 0.282 0.400 2 226016 1846 1974 129 0.999 0.288 0.280 3.179 0.222 0.458 3 226017 1792 1974 183 0.998 0.435 0.903 4.016 0.328 0.556 4 226020 1866 1974 109 1.000 0.270 0.162 3.081 0.207 0.491 5 226039 1859 1974 116 1.000 0.378 0.054 3.230 0.268 0.621 6 226041 1849 1974 126 1.000 0.284 -0.014 2.897 0.233 0.491 7 226043 1849 1974 126 1.000 0.241 0.038 2.763 0.222 0.319 8 226045 1832 1974 143 1.000 0.314 0.396 3.605 0.262 0.502 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 137 0.999 0.315 0.258 3.236 0.253 0.480 STANDARD DEVIATION 24 0.001 0.063 0.295 0.401 0.040 0.092 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 127 1.000 0.298 0.205 3.146 0.247 0.491 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 31 0.001 0.069 0.292 0.429 0.053 0.100 MINIMUM VALUE 109 0.998 0.241 -0.014 2.763 0.207 0.319 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 121 0.999 0.277 0.046 2.989 0.222 0.429 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 152 1.000 0.346 0.338 3.417 0.275 0.529 MAXIMUM VALUE 183 1.000 0.435 0.903 4.016 0.328 0.621 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 226015 -67 108 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 226016 -67 86 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 226017 -67 122 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 226020 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 226039 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 226041 -67 84 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 226043 -67 84 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 226045 -67 95 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 226015 1813 1974 162 0.996 0.281 0.028 3.004 0.283 0.278 2 226016 1846 1974 129 0.999 0.278 0.162 2.962 0.222 0.441 3 226017 1792 1974 183 0.993 0.391 0.760 3.607 0.328 0.457 4 226020 1866 1974 109 0.999 0.263 0.163 3.297 0.207 0.466 5 226039 1859 1974 116 0.990 0.353 0.117 3.430 0.268 0.570 6 226041 1849 1974 126 0.998 0.270 -0.051 2.956 0.233 0.435 7 226043 1849 1974 126 0.999 0.237 -0.028 2.774 0.222 0.300 8 226045 1832 1974 143 0.998 0.298 0.156 3.270 0.262 0.462 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 137 0.997 0.296 0.163 3.162 0.253 0.426 STANDARD DEVIATION 24 0.003 0.051 0.256 0.282 0.040 0.095 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 127 0.998 0.279 0.136 3.137 0.247 0.449 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 31 0.004 0.059 0.163 0.404 0.054 0.096 MINIMUM VALUE 109 0.990 0.237 -0.051 2.774 0.207 0.278 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 121 0.995 0.267 0.000 2.959 0.222 0.367 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 152 0.999 0.326 0.163 3.363 0.275 0.464 MAXIMUM VALUE 183 0.999 0.391 0.760 3.607 0.328 0.570 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 28 0.476 0.128 0.024 -0.734 3.452 0.143 0.662 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.143 SERIES 226017 AND 226039 116 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.662 SERIES 226020 AND 226045 109 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 66.90 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1830. 1840. 1850. 1860. 1870. 1880. 1890. 1900. 1910. 1920. CORR 1. 1. 3. 15. 21. 28. 28. 28. 28. 28. RBAR 0.850 0.805 0.095 0.112 0.322 0.312 0.354 0.503 0.614 0.680 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.138 0.284 0.228 0.220 0.205 0.170 0.144 0.130 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.080 0.073 0.050 0.042 0.039 0.032 0.027 0.025 EPS 0.931 0.930 0.338 0.461 0.786 0.784 0.814 0.890 0.927 0.944 NSS 2.4 3.2 4.8 6.8 7.7 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 YEAR 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. CORR 28. 28. 28. 28. RBAR 0.624 0.593 0.564 0.635 SDEV 0.192 0.204 0.217 0.144 SERR 0.036 0.038 0.041 0.027 EPS 0.930 0.921 0.912 0.933 NSS 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1792 1974 183 0.998 0.270 0.460 3.683 0.247 0.377 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.032 -0.013 0.191 37 146 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.47 1.31 1.00 1.17 2.48 7.89 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.87 0.20 0.00 0.78 0.99 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.375 0.148 0.015 -0.017 -0.011 -0.112 0.012 0.027 -0.029 -0.110 PACF 0.375 0.008 -0.050 -0.009 0.006 -0.125 0.109 0.009 -0.073 -0.097 95% C.L. 0.148 0.167 0.170 0.170 0.170 0.170 0.172 0.172 0.172 0.172 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.141 0.376 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.340 0.141 0.064 -0.022 -0.058 -0.179 -0.029 -0.063 -0.122 -0.101 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.340 2 0.330 0.028 3 0.330 0.026 0.009 4 0.330 0.027 0.027 -0.056 5 0.328 0.028 0.028 -0.042 -0.042 6 0.321 0.021 0.033 -0.038 0.010 -0.160 7 0.337 0.020 0.037 -0.041 0.008 -0.193 0.100 8 0.344 0.008 0.037 -0.044 0.011 -0.191 0.122 -0.066 9 0.338 0.019 0.019 -0.043 0.007 -0.188 0.123 -0.034 -0.092 10 0.333 0.017 0.026 -0.052 0.007 -0.190 0.124 -0.033 -0.076 -0.049 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1085.24 1064.79 1066.64 1068.63 1070.05 1071.72 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1068.95 1069.11 1070.31 1070.74 1072.29 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.340 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 11.55 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 113.05 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.340 0.115 0.039 0.013 0.005 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 226015 1 0.081 0.280 2 226016 1 0.195 0.441 3 226017 1 0.243 0.457 4 226020 1 0.235 0.467 5 226039 1 0.332 0.572 6 226041 1 0.190 0.436 7 226043 1 0.091 0.301 8 226045 1 0.218 0.464 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.198 0.427 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.082 0.095 MEDIAN 1 0.207 0.449 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.098 0.097 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.081 0.280 LOWER HINGE 1 0.141 0.368 UPPER HINGE 1 0.239 0.465 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.332 0.572 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 226015 1813 1974 162 1.000 0.269 -0.077 3.038 0.322 -0.016 2 226016 1846 1974 129 1.000 0.249 -0.060 4.030 0.267 0.016 3 226017 1792 1974 183 1.000 0.348 0.415 3.529 0.414 -0.093 4 226020 1866 1974 109 1.000 0.232 0.183 3.799 0.249 0.070 5 226039 1859 1974 116 1.000 0.289 0.301 3.151 0.334 -0.051 6 226041 1849 1974 126 1.000 0.243 0.005 2.871 0.268 0.003 7 226043 1849 1974 126 1.000 0.226 -0.031 3.008 0.253 -0.007 8 226045 1832 1974 143 1.000 0.264 -0.035 3.381 0.317 -0.032 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 137 1.000 0.265 0.088 3.351 0.303 -0.014 STANDARD DEVIATION 24 0.000 0.039 0.188 0.411 0.056 0.048 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 127 1.000 0.257 -0.013 3.266 0.292 -0.011 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 31 0.000 0.041 0.290 0.640 0.068 0.051 MINIMUM VALUE 109 1.000 0.226 -0.077 2.871 0.249 -0.093 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 121 1.000 0.238 -0.048 3.023 0.260 -0.041 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 152 1.000 0.279 0.242 3.664 0.328 0.009 MAXIMUM VALUE 183 1.000 0.348 0.415 4.030 0.414 0.070 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 28 0.535 0.084 0.016 -0.331 2.982 0.355 0.707 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.355 SERIES 226017 AND 226039 116 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.707 SERIES 226020 AND 226045 109 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 66.90 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1830. 1840. 1850. 1860. 1870. 1880. 1890. 1900. 1910. 1920. CORR 1. 1. 3. 15. 21. 28. 28. 28. 28. 28. RBAR 0.761 0.830 0.406 0.329 0.336 0.403 0.479 0.629 0.652 0.664 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.095 0.172 0.182 0.168 0.168 0.092 0.095 0.112 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.055 0.044 0.040 0.032 0.032 0.017 0.018 0.021 EPS 0.884 0.940 0.768 0.768 0.796 0.844 0.880 0.931 0.937 0.941 NSS 2.4 3.2 4.8 6.8 7.7 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 YEAR 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. CORR 28. 28. 28. 28. RBAR 0.632 0.609 0.596 0.629 SDEV 0.129 0.147 0.163 0.118 SERR 0.024 0.028 0.031 0.022 EPS 0.932 0.926 0.922 0.931 NSS 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1792 1974 183 1.001 0.246 0.152 3.730 0.287 -0.033 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.018 -0.008 0.161 31 152 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.50 2.33 1.01 1.18 3.51 42.42 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.86 0.20 0.00 0.76 0.96 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.033 -0.010 -0.026 -0.021 0.048 -0.173 0.034 0.049 0.004 -0.051 PACF -0.033 -0.011 -0.027 -0.023 0.046 -0.172 0.024 0.050 -0.001 -0.059 95% C.L. 0.148 0.148 0.148 0.148 0.148 0.149 0.153 0.153 0.153 0.153 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.000 -0.012 -0.027 -0.020 0.042 -0.171 0.030 0.050 0.004 -0.053 PACF 0.000 -0.012 -0.027 -0.020 0.041 -0.172 0.031 0.049 -0.005 -0.061 95% C.L. 0.148 0.148 0.148 0.148 0.148 0.148 0.153 0.153 0.153 0.153 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.000 0.000 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1792 1974 183 1.002 0.260 0.455 3.689 0.239 0.333 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.332 0.092 0.001 -0.020 -0.016 -0.145 -0.011 0.032 -0.017 -0.096 PACF 0.332 -0.020 -0.026 -0.012 -0.004 -0.154 0.097 0.021 -0.054 -0.094 95% C.L. 0.148 0.163 0.164 0.164 0.164 0.165 0.167 0.167 0.167 0.167 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.111 0.332 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.18 MINUTES