RUN: SWIT001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWIT142E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWIT142E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 471 1 Roggwil BE Tanne gesund WIDTH_EARLY ABAL - 471 2 Switzerland silver fir, European fir 535 4715-750 1874 1977 - 471 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES --- NO GAPS IN DATA FOUND --- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 471151 1890 1977 88 1.749 0.662 1.366 5.701 0.280 0.601 2 471152 1917 1977 61 2.632 0.996 0.587 3.301 0.248 0.638 3 471161 1887 1977 91 0.852 0.476 0.574 2.577 0.273 0.772 4 471162 1874 1977 104 1.452 0.771 0.206 2.393 0.251 0.849 5 471171 1882 1977 96 2.059 1.029 1.211 5.515 0.281 0.787 6 471172 1890 1977 88 2.460 1.217 1.098 4.766 0.319 0.660 7 471181 1893 1977 85 1.939 1.076 2.939 13.176 0.317 0.423 8 471182 1893 1977 85 1.613 0.550 1.252 5.059 0.282 0.393 9 471191 1904 1977 74 1.788 1.422 2.872 12.430 0.340 0.752 10 471192 1902 1977 76 1.871 0.908 1.619 8.095 0.307 0.689 11 471201 1902 1977 76 1.800 0.639 0.672 4.818 0.294 0.358 12 471202 1913 1977 65 2.203 1.222 1.063 3.593 0.284 0.765 13 471211 1884 1977 94 1.402 0.589 -0.016 2.677 0.242 0.675 14 471212 1890 1977 88 1.503 0.437 0.279 3.116 0.232 0.452 15 471221 1909 1977 69 2.167 0.717 0.076 2.921 0.250 0.612 16 471222 1896 1977 82 1.282 0.495 0.336 3.195 0.225 0.703 17 471231 1909 1977 69 2.561 1.317 0.938 4.093 0.222 0.815 18 471232 1900 1977 78 1.586 0.976 0.707 3.215 0.311 0.762 19 471241 1897 1977 81 1.120 0.448 0.621 3.187 0.274 0.597 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 471242 1898 1977 80 1.404 0.474 0.369 2.958 0.281 0.422 21 471251 1903 1977 75 1.311 0.816 1.634 5.246 0.310 0.704 22 471252 1891 1977 87 1.907 1.019 0.736 2.847 0.280 0.791 23 471261 1909 1977 69 1.394 0.515 0.382 3.130 0.348 0.358 24 471262 1874 1977 104 0.982 0.483 0.359 2.438 0.335 0.628 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 24 FROM 1874 TO 1977 104 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 82 1.710 0.802 0.912 4.602 0.283 0.634 STANDARD DEVIATION 11 0.477 0.307 0.768 2.866 0.036 0.154 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 81 1.681 0.744 0.689 3.258 0.281 0.668 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 13 0.601 0.519 0.868 2.213 0.060 0.239 MINIMUM VALUE 61 0.852 0.437 -0.016 2.393 0.222 0.358 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 74 1.398 0.505 0.364 2.939 0.251 0.525 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 88 1.999 1.024 1.232 5.152 0.310 0.763 MAXIMUM VALUE 104 2.632 1.422 2.939 13.176 0.348 0.849 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.280 0.228 0.014 -0.164 2.716 -0.394 0.824 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.394 SERIES 471161 AND 471242 80 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.824 SERIES 471191 AND 471192 74 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 72.39 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1899. 1930. CORR 1. 171. RBAR 0.393 0.205 SDEV 0.000 0.304 SERR 0.000 0.023 EPS 0.896 0.857 NSS 13.4 23.4 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1874 1977 104 1.595 0.388 -0.119 3.593 0.196 0.563 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.568 0.437 0.032 47 57 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.63 1.11 1.00 1.18 2.29 12.00 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.94 0.10 0.80 0.90 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 82. 14. 61. 74. 88. 104. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.557 0.447 0.260 0.240 0.186 0.164 0.057 -0.021 -0.039 -0.007 PACF 0.557 0.198 -0.076 0.089 0.033 0.010 -0.102 -0.090 0.017 0.057 95% C.L. 0.196 0.250 0.279 0.288 0.296 0.300 0.304 0.304 0.304 0.304 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.352 0.437 0.223 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 471151 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00201578 1.83879316 2 471152 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00651877 2.83454108 3 471161 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01164883 1.38815379 4 471162 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01790846 2.39211726 5 471171 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00173894 2.14340138 6 471172 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01336057 1.86590910 7 471181 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00472933 1.73534453 8 471182 1 1.34197581 0.31722617 0.00000000 1.57100284 9 471191 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01305487 1.29814517 10 471192 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00079508 1.83991575 11 471201 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00178619 1.86850524 12 471202 1 2.90513158 0.03972623 0.00000000 1.18362200 13 471211 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01205642 1.97427595 14 471212 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00483410 1.71784484 15 471221 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00870332 2.47128296 16 471222 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01153906 1.76082206 17 471231 1 4.09402370 0.04098254 0.00000000 1.22660971 18 471232 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.03341153 2.90526795 19 471241 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00180849 1.19439507 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 471242 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00764264 1.09484804 21 471251 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00868449 1.64134419 22 471252 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00266804 1.78996265 23 471261 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00405736 1.53635550 24 471262 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00286498 0.83141524 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 471151 1890 1977 88 1.000 0.378 1.376 5.672 0.277 0.590 2 471152 1917 1977 61 1.000 0.380 0.584 2.998 0.244 0.620 3 471161 1887 1977 91 0.975 0.380 0.931 3.984 0.269 0.565 4 471162 1874 1977 104 0.976 0.424 1.331 5.300 0.249 0.735 5 471171 1882 1977 96 1.000 0.506 1.311 5.780 0.278 0.785 6 471172 1890 1977 88 0.998 0.451 0.868 4.319 0.315 0.610 7 471181 1893 1977 85 1.000 0.537 2.793 12.498 0.314 0.406 8 471182 1893 1977 85 1.000 0.335 1.487 6.108 0.276 0.368 9 471191 1904 1977 74 0.997 0.737 2.640 11.600 0.335 0.722 10 471192 1902 1977 76 1.000 0.484 1.584 7.969 0.303 0.681 11 471201 1902 1977 76 1.000 0.361 0.869 5.306 0.291 0.343 12 471202 1913 1977 65 0.999 0.550 2.825 10.458 0.280 0.741 13 471211 1884 1977 94 0.990 0.376 0.571 2.834 0.240 0.580 14 471212 1890 1977 88 1.000 0.291 0.736 3.984 0.230 0.396 15 471221 1909 1977 69 0.999 0.335 0.530 3.523 0.247 0.591 16 471222 1896 1977 82 0.994 0.331 0.783 4.014 0.222 0.635 17 471231 1909 1977 69 0.998 0.376 1.127 5.758 0.216 0.619 18 471232 1900 1977 78 1.021 0.443 0.925 4.182 0.306 0.536 19 471241 1897 1977 81 1.000 0.401 0.710 3.406 0.270 0.590 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 471242 1898 1977 80 1.000 0.329 0.851 3.747 0.277 0.403 21 471251 1903 1977 75 1.000 0.617 1.842 5.897 0.306 0.743 22 471252 1891 1977 87 1.000 0.536 0.793 2.948 0.276 0.780 23 471261 1909 1977 69 0.999 0.366 0.476 3.357 0.343 0.351 24 471262 1874 1977 104 1.000 0.489 0.401 2.621 0.332 0.606 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 82 0.998 0.434 1.181 5.344 0.279 0.583 STANDARD DEVIATION 11 0.008 0.106 0.711 2.728 0.036 0.139 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 81 1.000 0.391 0.897 4.251 0.277 0.599 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 13 0.002 0.134 0.708 2.374 0.059 0.230 MINIMUM VALUE 61 0.975 0.291 0.401 2.621 0.216 0.343 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 74 0.998 0.363 0.723 3.465 0.248 0.471 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 88 1.000 0.498 1.432 5.838 0.306 0.701 MAXIMUM VALUE 104 1.021 0.737 2.825 12.498 0.343 0.785 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 471151 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 471152 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 471161 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 471162 -67 69 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 471171 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 471172 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 471181 -67 56 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 471182 -67 56 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 471191 -67 49 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 471192 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 471201 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 471202 -67 43 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 471211 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 471212 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 471221 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 471222 -67 54 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 471231 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 471232 -67 52 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 471241 -67 54 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 471242 -67 53 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 471251 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 471252 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 471261 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 471262 -67 69 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 471151 1890 1977 88 0.994 0.309 0.517 3.615 0.275 0.396 2 471152 1917 1977 61 0.988 0.335 0.639 3.090 0.243 0.530 3 471161 1887 1977 91 0.991 0.277 0.405 3.072 0.267 0.232 4 471162 1874 1977 104 0.994 0.362 1.533 7.033 0.249 0.521 5 471171 1882 1977 96 0.980 0.395 1.426 6.571 0.280 0.487 6 471172 1890 1977 88 0.990 0.415 0.707 3.262 0.316 0.551 7 471181 1893 1977 85 0.981 0.387 2.056 9.200 0.311 0.227 8 471182 1893 1977 85 0.997 0.316 1.261 5.570 0.276 0.316 9 471191 1904 1977 74 0.950 0.475 1.730 7.493 0.332 0.565 10 471192 1902 1977 76 0.985 0.391 0.700 5.020 0.303 0.520 11 471201 1902 1977 76 0.995 0.365 2.444 15.444 0.289 0.129 12 471202 1913 1977 65 0.988 0.409 1.865 6.702 0.278 0.557 13 471211 1884 1977 94 0.995 0.285 0.406 4.904 0.239 0.270 14 471212 1890 1977 88 0.999 0.285 0.724 4.034 0.229 0.373 15 471221 1909 1977 69 0.991 0.263 0.303 2.942 0.244 0.376 16 471222 1896 1977 82 0.995 0.259 0.521 3.715 0.221 0.400 17 471231 1909 1977 69 0.992 0.322 1.158 4.951 0.218 0.548 18 471232 1900 1977 78 0.984 0.360 0.582 3.084 0.305 0.455 19 471241 1897 1977 81 0.991 0.311 0.533 3.174 0.271 0.370 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 471242 1898 1977 80 0.993 0.287 0.779 4.002 0.277 0.228 21 471251 1903 1977 75 0.984 0.515 1.140 3.832 0.308 0.673 22 471252 1891 1977 87 0.981 0.470 1.212 4.279 0.278 0.720 23 471261 1909 1977 69 0.997 0.316 0.593 4.345 0.342 0.041 24 471262 1874 1977 104 0.985 0.451 0.889 4.915 0.330 0.514 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 82 0.988 0.357 1.005 5.177 0.278 0.417 STANDARD DEVIATION 11 0.010 0.072 0.581 2.730 0.035 0.168 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 81 0.991 0.348 0.751 4.312 0.278 0.428 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 13 0.010 0.104 0.786 2.632 0.060 0.246 MINIMUM VALUE 61 0.950 0.259 0.303 2.942 0.218 0.041 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 74 0.985 0.298 0.557 3.439 0.246 0.293 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 88 0.995 0.402 1.343 6.071 0.306 0.539 MAXIMUM VALUE 104 0.999 0.515 2.444 15.444 0.342 0.720 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.280 0.170 0.010 0.043 3.157 -0.188 0.742 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.188 SERIES 471181 AND 471202 65 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.742 SERIES 471261 AND 471262 69 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 72.39 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1899. 1930. CORR 1. 171. RBAR 0.401 0.255 SDEV 0.000 0.222 SERR 0.000 0.017 EPS 0.899 0.889 NSS 13.4 23.4 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1874 1977 104 0.978 0.197 0.397 3.290 0.203 0.263 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.426 0.219 0.057 49 55 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.38 0.77 1.00 1.10 1.87 4.91 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.95 0.10 0.77 0.90 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.261 0.124 -0.079 -0.042 -0.100 -0.116 -0.198 -0.160 -0.167 -0.087 PACF 0.261 0.060 -0.135 0.001 -0.072 -0.089 -0.150 -0.086 -0.115 -0.059 95% C.L. 0.196 0.209 0.212 0.213 0.213 0.215 0.217 0.224 0.229 0.233 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.074 0.267 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.226 0.150 -0.060 -0.041 -0.104 -0.193 -0.288 -0.221 -0.190 -0.076 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.226 2 0.203 0.104 3 0.215 0.129 -0.122 4 0.213 0.132 -0.117 -0.021 5 0.211 0.123 -0.108 -0.006 -0.071 6 0.199 0.122 -0.126 0.015 -0.035 -0.169 7 0.162 0.115 -0.123 -0.013 -0.008 -0.125 -0.221 8 0.137 0.100 -0.123 -0.015 -0.022 -0.112 -0.202 -0.114 9 0.122 0.074 -0.138 -0.017 -0.024 -0.128 -0.190 -0.097 -0.128 10 0.113 0.068 -0.150 -0.026 -0.026 -0.129 -0.199 -0.092 -0.120 -0.066 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 776.51 773.04 773.91 774.36 776.31 777.79 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 776.76 773.55 774.19 774.47 776.01 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.226 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 5.12 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 105.40 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.226 0.051 0.012 0.003 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 471151 1 0.186 0.413 2 471152 1 0.285 0.531 3 471161 1 0.058 0.240 4 471162 1 0.337 0.580 5 471171 1 0.298 0.542 6 471172 1 0.307 0.553 7 471181 1 0.062 0.231 8 471182 1 0.135 0.341 9 471191 1 0.329 0.572 10 471192 1 0.293 0.541 11 471201 1 0.086 0.163 12 471202 1 0.353 0.580 13 471211 1 0.080 0.283 14 471212 1 0.148 0.379 15 471221 1 0.177 0.390 16 471222 1 0.188 0.422 17 471231 1 0.316 0.553 18 471232 1 0.227 0.476 19 471241 1 0.154 0.379 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 471242 1 0.066 0.235 21 471251 1 0.490 0.700 22 471252 1 0.531 0.723 23 471261 1 0.013 0.042 24 471262 1 0.284 0.518 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.225 0.433 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.136 0.171 MEDIAN 1 0.207 0.449 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.200 0.241 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.013 0.042 LOWER HINGE 1 0.111 0.312 UPPER HINGE 1 0.311 0.553 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.531 0.723 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 471151 1890 1977 88 1.000 0.280 0.130 3.216 0.325 -0.051 2 471152 1917 1977 61 1.000 0.284 0.556 3.068 0.296 -0.034 3 471161 1887 1977 91 1.000 0.269 0.310 3.408 0.297 -0.001 4 471162 1874 1977 104 1.000 0.294 1.646 8.491 0.292 0.080 5 471171 1882 1977 96 1.000 0.331 2.046 11.965 0.324 0.084 6 471172 1890 1977 88 1.000 0.346 0.595 3.439 0.390 -0.019 7 471181 1893 1977 85 1.000 0.376 2.349 10.496 0.327 -0.023 8 471182 1893 1977 85 1.000 0.297 1.271 6.257 0.312 -0.019 9 471191 1904 1977 74 1.000 0.388 1.416 6.888 0.399 0.021 10 471192 1902 1977 76 1.000 0.329 1.282 6.007 0.345 0.032 11 471201 1902 1977 76 1.000 0.360 2.880 18.307 0.303 0.005 12 471202 1913 1977 65 1.000 0.332 1.193 4.800 0.363 -0.069 13 471211 1884 1977 94 1.000 0.272 0.548 6.000 0.273 -0.013 14 471212 1890 1977 88 1.000 0.263 0.948 5.448 0.267 -0.030 15 471221 1909 1977 69 1.000 0.241 0.223 2.971 0.283 -0.066 16 471222 1896 1977 82 1.000 0.233 0.094 3.558 0.265 -0.055 17 471231 1909 1977 69 1.000 0.268 1.820 9.654 0.248 0.067 18 471232 1900 1977 78 1.000 0.314 0.690 3.797 0.347 0.003 19 471241 1897 1977 81 1.000 0.287 0.403 3.445 0.309 -0.045 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 471242 1898 1977 80 1.000 0.279 0.767 3.608 0.298 -0.028 21 471251 1903 1977 75 1.000 0.362 0.799 4.309 0.410 0.001 22 471252 1891 1977 87 1.000 0.324 0.864 5.225 0.371 -0.101 23 471261 1909 1977 69 1.000 0.316 0.589 4.377 0.345 0.005 24 471262 1874 1977 104 1.004 0.375 0.315 4.984 0.407 -0.050 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 82 1.000 0.309 0.989 5.988 0.325 -0.013 STANDARD DEVIATION 11 0.001 0.044 0.732 3.602 0.047 0.046 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 81 1.000 0.306 0.783 4.892 0.318 -0.019 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 13 0.000 0.064 0.874 3.070 0.061 0.052 MINIMUM VALUE 61 1.000 0.233 0.094 2.971 0.248 -0.101 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 74 1.000 0.275 0.475 3.502 0.294 -0.047 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 88 1.000 0.339 1.349 6.572 0.355 0.005 MAXIMUM VALUE 104 1.004 0.388 2.880 18.307 0.410 0.084 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.356 0.135 0.008 0.060 3.159 -0.009 0.747 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.009 SERIES 471152 AND 471181 61 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.747 SERIES 471261 AND 471262 69 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 72.39 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1899. 1930. CORR 1. 171. RBAR 0.424 0.331 SDEV 0.000 0.172 SERR 0.000 0.013 EPS 0.908 0.920 NSS 13.4 23.4 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1874 1977 104 0.989 0.184 0.138 3.030 0.235 -0.155 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.264 0.124 0.092 45 59 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.31 0.97 1.00 1.12 2.09 5.04 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.93 0.12 0.82 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.154 0.077 -0.138 0.005 -0.051 -0.006 -0.158 -0.047 -0.088 -0.035 PACF -0.154 0.055 -0.122 -0.037 -0.042 -0.036 -0.172 -0.113 -0.118 -0.124 95% C.L. 0.196 0.201 0.202 0.205 0.205 0.206 0.206 0.211 0.211 0.212 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.029 -0.159 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.004 0.037 -0.133 -0.017 -0.051 -0.042 -0.167 -0.084 -0.112 -0.046 PACF 0.004 0.037 -0.133 -0.017 -0.042 -0.059 -0.172 -0.099 -0.129 -0.109 95% C.L. 0.196 0.196 0.196 0.200 0.200 0.200 0.201 0.206 0.207 0.210 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.001 0.004 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1874 1977 104 0.987 0.187 0.295 3.238 0.199 0.222 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.220 0.058 -0.119 -0.048 -0.074 -0.098 -0.193 -0.145 -0.154 -0.070 PACF 0.220 0.010 -0.141 0.007 -0.056 -0.092 -0.165 -0.088 -0.133 -0.074 95% C.L. 0.196 0.205 0.206 0.209 0.209 0.210 0.212 0.218 0.222 0.226 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.051 0.225 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.22 MINUTES