RUN: SWIT001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWIT143E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWIT143E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 471 1 Roggwil BE Fi Vergl.Prob WIDTH_EARLY PCAB - 471 2 Switzerland Norway spruce 535 4715-750 1843 1977 - 471 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 3 471311 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1891 1893 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 8 471332 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 2 GAPS / 1900 1900 / 1910 1911 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 471301 1875 1977 103 1.531 0.706 1.347 6.661 0.289 0.608 2 471302 1869 1977 109 1.968 1.287 1.771 6.365 0.280 0.743 3 471311 1870 1977 108 1.284 0.817 1.077 3.384 0.304 0.673 4 471312 1872 1977 106 1.871 1.073 0.586 3.046 0.303 0.743 5 471321 1881 1977 97 1.411 0.651 1.604 5.366 0.252 0.706 6 471322 1869 1977 109 1.793 0.666 0.844 3.828 0.266 0.556 7 471331 1881 1977 97 1.511 1.367 3.827 18.970 0.295 0.747 8 471332 1884 1977 94 1.490 0.929 1.538 6.424 0.347 0.608 9 471341 1879 1977 99 2.350 1.433 1.974 8.169 0.233 0.810 10 471342 1880 1977 98 2.088 1.339 2.765 14.063 0.231 0.702 11 471351 1871 1977 107 1.750 1.237 1.710 7.179 0.331 0.735 12 471352 1862 1977 116 1.765 1.400 1.115 3.409 0.381 0.820 13 471361 1845 1977 133 1.088 0.528 1.987 7.375 0.244 0.730 14 471362 1843 1977 135 1.079 0.884 2.514 9.507 0.250 0.891 15 471371 1879 1977 99 1.669 0.785 1.632 7.999 0.386 0.335 16 471372 1888 1977 90 2.550 1.333 0.917 2.725 0.325 0.629 17 471381 1880 1977 98 1.606 0.905 1.614 5.202 0.311 0.692 18 471382 1866 1977 112 1.271 0.792 1.674 5.454 0.337 0.590 19 471391 1865 1977 113 1.086 1.164 2.393 7.303 0.256 0.900 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 471392 1876 1977 102 1.904 1.035 1.332 5.131 0.263 0.788 21 471401 1873 1977 105 1.810 1.266 2.021 7.565 0.289 0.845 22 471402 1875 1977 103 1.725 1.137 3.304 20.024 0.301 0.605 23 471411 1871 1977 107 1.380 0.832 1.793 6.430 0.277 0.782 24 471412 1874 1977 104 1.628 1.024 1.170 4.721 0.298 0.779 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 24 FROM 1843 TO 1977 135 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 106 1.650 1.025 1.771 7.346 0.294 0.709 STANDARD DEVIATION 10 0.374 0.270 0.764 4.459 0.042 0.123 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 104 1.648 1.029 1.653 6.427 0.292 0.733 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 10 0.445 0.471 0.753 2.856 0.058 0.167 MINIMUM VALUE 90 1.079 0.528 0.586 2.725 0.231 0.335 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 98 1.396 0.805 1.251 4.926 0.260 0.619 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 109 1.841 1.276 2.004 7.782 0.318 0.785 MAXIMUM VALUE 135 2.550 1.433 3.827 20.024 0.386 0.900 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.365 0.244 0.015 -0.211 2.314 -0.149 0.872 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.149 SERIES 471302 AND 471392 102 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.872 SERIES 471401 AND 471412 104 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 74.36 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 105. 276. 276. RBAR 0.537 0.403 0.285 SDEV 0.184 0.184 0.235 SERR 0.018 0.011 0.014 EPS 0.964 0.942 0.906 NSS 22.9 24.0 24.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1843 1977 135 1.651 0.745 1.153 3.994 0.202 0.819 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.808 0.470 -0.018 59 76 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.66 1.23 1.00 1.18 2.41 10.50 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.95 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 104. 10. 90. 98. 109. 135. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.813 0.701 0.583 0.438 0.368 0.353 0.283 0.254 0.286 0.243 PACF 0.813 0.120 -0.050 -0.152 0.097 0.190 -0.127 -0.015 0.217 -0.073 95% C.L. 0.172 0.262 0.313 0.344 0.360 0.371 0.381 0.387 0.392 0.398 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.680 0.822 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 471301 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00625357 1.85625362 2 471302 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01475248 1.15650356 3 471311 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01234868 1.96163619 4 471312 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.02031131 2.95807004 5 471321 1 2.03957772 0.04444289 0.00000000 0.95446789 6 471322 1 1.42133927 0.03975001 0.00000000 1.47532201 7 471331 1 10.10519409 0.23926303 0.00000000 1.12604964 8 471332 1 5.08459187 0.32503629 0.00000000 1.39179933 9 471341 1 8.04607010 0.20952740 0.00000000 2.00092721 10 471342 1 6.07736921 0.10856926 0.00000000 1.54743469 11 471351 1 4.16672707 0.05795379 0.00000000 1.09839821 12 471352 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.02469965 3.20992947 13 471361 1 0.93029940 0.04123922 0.00000000 0.92244774 14 471362 1 1.69291496 0.03665821 0.00000000 0.74505877 15 471371 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00185529 1.76165330 16 471372 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01890192 1.69018471 17 471381 1 3.95721936 0.34839335 0.00000000 1.50872958 18 471382 1 2.87545824 0.10532735 0.00000000 1.03975654 19 471391 1 5.25397444 0.07418314 0.00000000 0.48253694 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 471392 1 3.20685434 0.05083862 0.00000000 1.30466723 21 471401 1 6.20009232 0.11843790 0.00000000 1.34038675 22 471402 1 11.84897232 0.50086057 0.00000000 1.54781365 23 471411 1 4.23071241 0.15439740 0.00000000 1.14354670 24 471412 1 3.30365443 0.02921316 0.00000000 0.60768902 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 471301 1875 1977 103 1.000 0.444 0.973 4.019 0.285 0.622 2 471302 1869 1977 109 1.026 0.641 1.464 4.796 0.278 0.760 3 471311 1870 1977 108 0.993 0.565 1.421 4.870 0.315 0.642 4 471312 1872 1977 106 0.999 0.493 0.585 2.881 0.299 0.697 5 471321 1881 1977 97 1.000 0.275 0.927 4.151 0.250 0.246 6 471322 1869 1977 109 1.000 0.325 0.920 4.500 0.264 0.392 7 471331 1881 1977 97 0.998 0.423 0.508 3.077 0.291 0.548 8 471332 1884 1977 94 1.000 0.629 1.994 9.454 0.388 0.531 9 471341 1879 1977 99 1.000 0.459 1.039 4.788 0.229 0.827 10 471342 1880 1977 98 1.000 0.370 0.908 5.407 0.228 0.708 11 471351 1871 1977 107 0.999 0.522 1.368 5.627 0.327 0.643 12 471352 1862 1977 116 1.066 0.787 1.556 5.366 0.377 0.720 13 471361 1845 1977 133 0.999 0.441 2.776 15.373 0.242 0.681 14 471362 1843 1977 135 1.000 0.662 1.940 6.585 0.249 0.860 15 471371 1879 1977 99 1.000 0.469 1.603 7.742 0.382 0.348 16 471372 1888 1977 90 0.999 0.484 1.055 3.540 0.320 0.606 17 471381 1880 1977 98 1.000 0.529 1.812 6.655 0.309 0.648 18 471382 1866 1977 112 1.000 0.486 1.376 5.221 0.332 0.541 19 471391 1865 1977 113 1.010 0.360 0.494 3.502 0.256 0.583 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 471392 1876 1977 102 1.000 0.400 1.021 3.974 0.259 0.590 21 471401 1873 1977 105 1.001 0.451 0.419 2.841 0.285 0.737 22 471402 1875 1977 103 1.000 0.462 0.607 2.667 0.292 0.699 23 471411 1871 1977 107 1.000 0.429 0.697 3.772 0.273 0.664 24 471412 1874 1977 104 0.996 0.415 0.854 3.830 0.294 0.603 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 106 1.004 0.480 1.180 5.193 0.293 0.621 STANDARD DEVIATION 10 0.015 0.114 0.573 2.708 0.045 0.141 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 104 1.000 0.460 1.030 4.644 0.288 0.642 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 10 0.001 0.106 0.734 1.861 0.060 0.138 MINIMUM VALUE 90 0.993 0.275 0.419 2.667 0.228 0.246 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 98 0.999 0.419 0.776 3.656 0.257 0.565 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 109 1.000 0.525 1.510 5.517 0.318 0.703 MAXIMUM VALUE 135 1.066 0.787 2.776 15.373 0.388 0.860 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 471301 -67 69 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 471302 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 471311 -67 72 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 471312 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 471321 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 471322 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 471331 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 471332 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 471341 -67 66 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 471342 -67 65 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 471351 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 471352 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 471361 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 471362 -67 90 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 471371 -67 66 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 471372 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 471381 -67 65 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 471382 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 471391 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 471392 -67 68 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 471401 -67 70 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 471402 -67 69 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 471411 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 471412 -67 69 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 471301 1875 1977 103 0.992 0.410 0.727 3.367 0.284 0.594 2 471302 1869 1977 109 0.996 0.371 0.533 3.141 0.277 0.534 3 471311 1870 1977 108 0.986 0.488 1.066 3.646 0.314 0.536 4 471312 1872 1977 106 0.992 0.461 0.372 2.544 0.300 0.659 5 471321 1881 1977 97 0.998 0.254 0.924 4.065 0.250 0.156 6 471322 1869 1977 109 0.997 0.302 0.717 3.306 0.264 0.325 7 471331 1881 1977 97 0.988 0.395 0.596 3.173 0.289 0.508 8 471332 1884 1977 94 0.978 0.574 1.830 7.516 0.387 0.524 9 471341 1879 1977 99 0.976 0.353 0.639 3.577 0.227 0.716 10 471342 1880 1977 98 0.986 0.289 0.689 4.176 0.228 0.522 11 471351 1871 1977 107 0.989 0.438 0.918 3.576 0.325 0.501 12 471352 1862 1977 116 0.972 0.594 1.376 5.612 0.378 0.619 13 471361 1845 1977 133 0.996 0.361 1.822 8.760 0.241 0.588 14 471362 1843 1977 135 0.985 0.480 1.060 4.119 0.249 0.773 15 471371 1879 1977 99 0.995 0.423 0.920 4.047 0.381 0.322 16 471372 1888 1977 90 0.991 0.435 0.797 2.630 0.320 0.536 17 471381 1880 1977 98 0.996 0.498 1.605 5.734 0.308 0.644 18 471382 1866 1977 112 0.997 0.468 1.167 4.554 0.332 0.515 19 471391 1865 1977 113 0.995 0.319 0.150 3.063 0.256 0.523 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 471392 1876 1977 102 0.995 0.369 0.827 3.510 0.258 0.538 21 471401 1873 1977 105 0.992 0.403 0.887 4.829 0.284 0.631 22 471402 1875 1977 103 0.996 0.448 0.785 3.100 0.291 0.679 23 471411 1871 1977 107 0.997 0.416 0.584 3.598 0.273 0.652 24 471412 1874 1977 104 0.993 0.387 0.838 4.068 0.295 0.561 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 106 0.991 0.414 0.910 4.155 0.292 0.548 STANDARD DEVIATION 10 0.007 0.083 0.414 1.474 0.045 0.133 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 104 0.993 0.413 0.833 3.622 0.287 0.537 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 10 0.009 0.100 0.399 1.125 0.060 0.119 MINIMUM VALUE 90 0.972 0.254 0.150 2.544 0.227 0.156 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 98 0.987 0.365 0.664 3.240 0.257 0.518 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 109 0.996 0.464 1.063 4.365 0.317 0.638 MAXIMUM VALUE 135 0.998 0.594 1.830 8.760 0.387 0.773 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.338 0.141 0.008 -0.039 2.926 -0.099 0.689 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.099 SERIES 471312 AND 471361 106 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.689 SERIES 471392 AND 471411 102 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 74.36 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 105. 276. 276. RBAR 0.348 0.388 0.330 SDEV 0.176 0.162 0.190 SERR 0.017 0.010 0.011 EPS 0.924 0.938 0.922 NSS 22.9 24.0 24.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1843 1977 135 0.982 0.321 0.687 3.700 0.212 0.694 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.574 0.274 0.033 56 79 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.21 0.60 1.00 1.08 1.69 5.02 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.93 0.11 0.00 0.89 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.689 0.495 0.291 0.062 -0.064 -0.104 -0.224 -0.264 -0.225 -0.238 PACF 0.689 0.038 -0.120 -0.209 -0.023 0.067 -0.211 -0.078 0.075 -0.071 95% C.L. 0.172 0.240 0.269 0.278 0.278 0.279 0.280 0.285 0.292 0.298 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.480 0.692 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.601 0.414 0.213 -0.003 -0.119 -0.113 -0.196 -0.198 -0.175 -0.192 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.601 2 0.552 0.082 3 0.560 0.138 -0.101 4 0.541 0.164 0.004 -0.188 5 0.528 0.164 0.015 -0.151 -0.068 6 0.534 0.177 0.014 -0.165 -0.112 0.084 7 0.545 0.162 -0.009 -0.163 -0.088 0.157 -0.138 8 0.536 0.172 -0.015 -0.174 -0.088 0.168 -0.103 -0.064 9 0.535 0.170 -0.011 -0.176 -0.092 0.167 -0.099 -0.053 -0.021 10 0.534 0.166 -0.018 -0.164 -0.099 0.155 -0.100 -0.041 0.017 -0.071 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1104.16 1045.63 1046.72 1047.32 1044.44 1045.82 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1046.87 1046.28 1047.71 1049.65 1050.97 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.601 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 36.13 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 156.57 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.601 0.361 0.217 0.131 0.078 0.047 0.028 0.017 0.010 0.0062 0.004 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 471301 1 0.389 0.623 2 471302 1 0.301 0.546 3 471311 1 0.297 0.538 4 471312 1 0.469 0.667 5 471321 1 0.048 0.160 6 471322 1 0.131 0.328 7 471331 1 0.268 0.517 8 471332 1 0.297 0.526 9 471341 1 0.521 0.722 10 471342 1 0.286 0.534 11 471351 1 0.258 0.507 12 471352 1 0.398 0.622 13 471361 1 0.348 0.590 14 471362 1 0.610 0.777 15 471371 1 0.128 0.336 16 471372 1 0.289 0.537 17 471381 1 0.416 0.645 18 471382 1 0.268 0.517 19 471391 1 0.321 0.533 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 471392 1 0.308 0.543 21 471401 1 0.416 0.641 22 471402 1 0.473 0.683 23 471411 1 0.429 0.654 24 471412 1 0.334 0.566 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.334 0.555 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.126 0.133 MEDIAN 1 0.314 0.545 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.139 0.121 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.048 0.160 LOWER HINGE 1 0.277 0.521 UPPER HINGE 1 0.416 0.643 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.610 0.777 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 471301 1875 1977 103 1.000 0.315 0.596 2.851 0.353 -0.047 2 471302 1869 1977 109 1.002 0.305 0.228 4.055 0.332 -0.012 3 471311 1870 1977 108 1.001 0.409 1.340 5.724 0.394 -0.051 4 471312 1872 1977 106 1.000 0.342 0.460 3.805 0.402 -0.141 5 471321 1881 1977 97 1.000 0.251 1.005 4.320 0.274 -0.027 6 471322 1869 1977 109 1.000 0.285 0.580 3.136 0.308 -0.054 7 471331 1881 1977 97 1.000 0.338 1.198 4.735 0.338 -0.014 8 471332 1884 1977 94 1.000 0.488 2.353 11.602 0.466 -0.087 9 471341 1879 1977 99 1.000 0.245 0.466 3.218 0.294 -0.019 10 471342 1880 1977 98 1.000 0.243 0.608 4.052 0.279 -0.027 11 471351 1871 1977 107 1.000 0.376 1.312 4.748 0.384 -0.027 12 471352 1862 1977 116 1.000 0.464 2.444 15.366 0.439 0.081 13 471361 1845 1977 133 1.000 0.291 1.370 6.533 0.321 -0.007 14 471362 1843 1977 135 1.000 0.302 0.616 4.569 0.330 -0.090 15 471371 1879 1977 99 1.000 0.396 0.842 4.203 0.432 -0.055 16 471372 1888 1977 90 1.000 0.367 0.477 3.539 0.421 -0.011 17 471381 1880 1977 98 1.000 0.381 1.797 7.880 0.366 0.014 18 471382 1866 1977 112 1.000 0.400 1.242 5.200 0.396 -0.012 19 471391 1865 1977 113 1.000 0.270 0.274 2.987 0.322 -0.112 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 471392 1876 1977 102 1.000 0.309 0.835 4.175 0.301 0.077 21 471401 1873 1977 105 1.000 0.309 0.759 4.942 0.338 -0.054 22 471402 1875 1977 103 1.000 0.327 0.495 3.128 0.345 0.076 23 471411 1871 1977 107 1.000 0.315 0.908 4.287 0.346 -0.035 24 471412 1874 1977 104 1.000 0.319 0.680 3.952 0.355 -0.083 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 106 1.000 0.335 0.954 5.125 0.356 -0.030 STANDARD DEVIATION 10 0.000 0.064 0.591 2.872 0.052 0.055 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 104 1.000 0.317 0.797 4.245 0.346 -0.027 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 10 0.000 0.082 0.740 1.399 0.073 0.043 MINIMUM VALUE 90 1.000 0.243 0.228 2.851 0.274 -0.141 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 98 1.000 0.296 0.538 3.672 0.322 -0.055 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 109 1.000 0.378 1.277 5.071 0.395 -0.011 MAXIMUM VALUE 135 1.002 0.488 2.444 15.366 0.466 0.081 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.306 0.116 0.007 -0.064 2.983 -0.039 0.632 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.039 SERIES 471352 AND 471392 102 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.632 SERIES 471392 AND 471411 102 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 74.36 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 105. 276. 276. RBAR 0.372 0.341 0.293 SDEV 0.129 0.128 0.158 SERR 0.013 0.008 0.010 EPS 0.931 0.925 0.909 NSS 22.9 24.0 24.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1843 1977 135 0.988 0.209 0.616 3.376 0.236 0.091 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.487 0.238 -0.006 59 76 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.29 0.62 1.00 1.09 1.70 8.59 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.94 0.11 0.00 0.89 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.090 0.183 0.114 -0.120 -0.116 0.042 -0.165 -0.182 -0.004 -0.233 PACF 0.090 0.176 0.088 -0.174 -0.143 0.113 -0.099 -0.212 0.025 -0.135 95% C.L. 0.172 0.174 0.179 0.181 0.184 0.186 0.186 0.190 0.195 0.195 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.047 0.074 0.178 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.016 0.168 0.110 -0.121 -0.110 0.068 -0.154 -0.170 0.033 -0.234 PACF -0.016 0.168 0.118 -0.151 -0.165 0.106 -0.071 -0.220 0.017 -0.134 95% C.L. 0.172 0.172 0.177 0.179 0.181 0.183 0.184 0.188 0.192 0.193 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.029 -0.016 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1843 1977 135 0.991 0.271 0.588 3.516 0.193 0.644 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.640 0.468 0.263 0.019 -0.093 -0.111 -0.237 -0.271 -0.209 -0.245 PACF 0.640 0.099 -0.120 -0.239 -0.029 0.095 -0.210 -0.125 0.100 -0.089 95% C.L. 0.172 0.232 0.259 0.266 0.266 0.267 0.269 0.275 0.283 0.287 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.420 0.643 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.20 MINUTES