RUN: SWIT001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWIT145E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWIT145E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 472 1 Madiswil BE, Fichte WIDTH_EARLY PCAB - 472 2 Switzerland Norway spruce 675 4709-748 1808 1977 - 472 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 472151 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1963 1963 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 472202 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1963 1963 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 472151 1815 1977 163 1.074 0.913 2.510 10.170 0.342 0.787 2 472152 1819 1977 159 1.149 0.929 3.408 17.422 0.283 0.738 3 472161 1829 1977 149 1.552 0.810 1.216 4.175 0.262 0.773 4 472162 1832 1977 146 1.591 0.881 1.238 4.208 0.250 0.817 5 472171 1820 1977 158 1.203 0.868 4.116 21.508 0.222 0.759 6 472172 1845 1977 133 1.609 0.801 4.380 31.370 0.236 0.536 7 472181 1821 1977 157 1.310 0.683 2.766 15.602 0.285 0.515 8 472182 1847 1977 131 1.635 0.978 2.493 9.695 0.311 0.547 9 472191 1879 1977 99 2.300 1.544 1.968 7.854 0.306 0.779 10 472192 1870 1977 108 1.477 1.011 1.955 7.807 0.239 0.778 11 472201 1832 1977 146 1.218 1.023 1.825 6.558 0.284 0.902 12 472202 1844 1976 133 1.196 0.886 1.578 6.489 0.265 0.832 13 472211 1847 1977 131 1.805 0.675 1.156 4.704 0.271 0.518 14 472212 1844 1977 134 1.826 0.933 1.538 5.198 0.271 0.703 15 472221 1813 1977 165 0.861 0.440 1.731 6.420 0.243 0.756 16 472222 1808 1977 170 1.032 0.523 1.258 4.517 0.253 0.744 17 472231 1812 1977 166 1.160 0.731 2.105 7.946 0.256 0.819 18 472232 1824 1977 154 1.429 0.939 1.591 5.167 0.275 0.801 19 472241 1821 1977 157 1.121 0.723 3.036 12.816 0.185 0.849 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 472242 1809 1977 169 1.184 0.846 2.853 11.336 0.199 0.900 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 20 FROM 1808 TO 1977 170 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 146 1.387 0.857 2.236 10.048 0.262 0.743 STANDARD DEVIATION 19 0.342 0.223 0.947 6.913 0.037 0.120 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 151 1.264 0.875 1.962 7.830 0.263 0.775 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 28 0.445 0.209 1.252 6.893 0.043 0.097 MINIMUM VALUE 99 0.861 0.440 1.156 4.175 0.185 0.515 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 132 1.155 0.727 1.558 5.183 0.241 0.720 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 160 1.600 0.936 2.810 12.076 0.284 0.818 MAXIMUM VALUE 170 2.300 1.544 4.380 31.370 0.342 0.902 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.358 0.246 0.018 -0.253 2.665 -0.263 0.914 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.263 SERIES 472172 AND 472202 132 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.914 SERIES 472241 AND 472242 157 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 79.63 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 78. 153. 190. 190. RBAR 0.385 0.299 0.317 0.358 SDEV 0.222 0.221 0.268 0.270 SERR 0.025 0.018 0.019 0.020 EPS 0.916 0.892 0.903 0.918 NSS 17.4 19.4 20.0 20.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1808 1977 170 1.268 0.565 1.357 5.780 0.196 0.788 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.837 0.624 -0.172 104 66 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.75 1.35 1.00 1.26 2.60 36.16 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.10 0.00 0.85 0.95 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 152. 28. 99. 133. 161. 170. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.784 0.729 0.640 0.619 0.523 0.481 0.369 0.340 0.300 0.234 PACF 0.784 0.298 0.016 0.133 -0.107 0.006 -0.159 0.035 0.068 -0.117 95% C.L. 0.153 0.229 0.278 0.311 0.339 0.357 0.372 0.381 0.388 0.393 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.667 0.539 0.320 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 472151 1 3.95490479 0.06974076 0.00000000 0.73369938 2 472152 1 8.15435028 0.30185992 0.00000000 1.00301111 3 472161 1 2.14271879 0.02002529 0.00000000 0.87675089 4 472162 1 2.33226490 0.02318739 0.00000000 0.93307436 5 472171 1 5.11575413 0.13342807 0.00000000 0.97569859 6 472172 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00913248 0.99669516 7 472181 1 2.45496988 0.07929915 0.00000000 1.12097716 8 472182 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00885331 1.05110157 9 472191 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01821806 1.38919806 10 472192 1 2.65004277 0.06148732 0.00000000 1.09034896 11 472201 1 3.44719410 0.02752135 0.00000000 0.38716814 12 472202 1 3.04342532 0.02174567 0.00000000 0.20733453 13 472211 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00035200 1.82804108 14 472212 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00888674 1.22641337 15 472221 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00387239 1.18243825 16 472222 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00386994 1.36270380 17 472231 1 1.59534740 0.02059962 0.00000000 0.71386254 18 472232 1 2.56047082 0.03978205 0.00000000 1.02064061 19 472241 1 4.07772350 0.09687239 0.00000000 0.86612862 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 472242 1 1.98789835 0.02388516 0.00000000 0.70608205 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 472151 1815 1977 163 0.998 0.534 1.551 7.296 0.338 0.566 2 472152 1819 1977 159 1.001 0.599 2.491 11.279 0.280 0.790 3 472161 1829 1977 149 1.001 0.398 1.515 5.874 0.260 0.597 4 472162 1832 1977 146 1.001 0.421 1.086 3.738 0.249 0.617 5 472171 1820 1977 158 1.001 0.336 0.780 3.554 0.222 0.579 6 472172 1845 1977 133 1.006 0.391 3.044 20.451 0.234 0.473 7 472181 1821 1977 157 1.000 0.385 1.417 6.776 0.283 0.441 8 472182 1847 1977 131 1.005 0.522 1.854 6.551 0.309 0.537 9 472191 1879 1977 99 1.003 0.617 1.739 6.132 0.303 0.695 10 472192 1870 1977 108 0.999 0.564 1.573 5.573 0.234 0.761 11 472201 1832 1977 146 1.000 0.524 1.929 8.113 0.284 0.700 12 472202 1844 1976 133 0.988 0.382 1.554 7.552 0.259 0.579 13 472211 1847 1977 131 1.000 0.374 1.159 4.708 0.268 0.512 14 472212 1844 1977 134 1.009 0.455 0.838 3.237 0.269 0.655 15 472221 1813 1977 165 0.999 0.419 1.064 4.366 0.241 0.654 16 472222 1808 1977 170 1.002 0.437 0.706 3.324 0.252 0.689 17 472231 1812 1977 166 1.000 0.502 2.089 8.527 0.254 0.719 18 472232 1824 1977 154 1.000 0.576 2.567 11.225 0.272 0.692 19 472241 1821 1977 157 1.001 0.276 0.215 2.614 0.181 0.676 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 472242 1809 1977 169 1.002 0.383 0.784 4.622 0.198 0.777 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 146 1.001 0.455 1.498 6.775 0.260 0.636 STANDARD DEVIATION 19 0.004 0.094 0.706 4.050 0.037 0.099 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 151 1.001 0.429 1.533 6.003 0.260 0.655 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 28 0.002 0.145 0.941 3.781 0.044 0.125 MINIMUM VALUE 99 0.988 0.276 0.215 2.614 0.181 0.441 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 133 1.000 0.384 0.951 4.052 0.238 0.573 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 161 1.002 0.529 1.892 7.833 0.282 0.697 MAXIMUM VALUE 170 1.009 0.617 3.044 20.451 0.338 0.790 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 472151 -67 109 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 472152 -67 106 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 472161 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 472162 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 472171 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 472172 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 472181 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 472182 -67 87 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 472191 -67 66 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 472192 -67 72 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 472201 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 472202 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 472211 -67 87 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 472212 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 472221 -67 110 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 472222 -67 113 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 472231 -67 111 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 472232 -67 103 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 472241 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 472242 -67 113 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 472151 1815 1977 163 0.989 0.526 2.825 15.863 0.338 0.448 2 472152 1819 1977 159 0.988 0.452 2.169 8.484 0.280 0.622 3 472161 1829 1977 149 0.992 0.336 1.358 5.344 0.260 0.469 4 472162 1832 1977 146 0.992 0.329 0.835 3.267 0.249 0.493 5 472171 1820 1977 158 0.998 0.303 0.844 3.885 0.222 0.474 6 472172 1845 1977 133 0.996 0.331 3.151 22.920 0.233 0.355 7 472181 1821 1977 157 0.998 0.357 1.433 8.549 0.283 0.410 8 472182 1847 1977 131 0.989 0.431 1.826 7.305 0.308 0.415 9 472191 1879 1977 99 0.990 0.574 1.522 5.312 0.303 0.681 10 472192 1870 1977 108 0.983 0.465 2.384 9.842 0.233 0.666 11 472201 1832 1977 146 0.992 0.511 2.316 10.714 0.284 0.677 12 472202 1844 1976 133 0.996 0.371 2.071 11.185 0.259 0.535 13 472211 1847 1977 131 0.996 0.342 0.766 3.313 0.268 0.459 14 472212 1844 1977 134 0.989 0.330 0.630 2.959 0.269 0.474 15 472221 1813 1977 165 0.985 0.350 0.744 3.715 0.241 0.564 16 472222 1808 1977 170 0.982 0.344 0.426 3.699 0.252 0.568 17 472231 1812 1977 166 0.986 0.398 1.204 4.539 0.255 0.654 18 472232 1824 1977 154 0.991 0.516 2.109 8.907 0.271 0.657 19 472241 1821 1977 157 0.996 0.242 0.348 3.033 0.181 0.597 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 472242 1809 1977 169 0.997 0.324 0.321 5.153 0.198 0.703 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 146 0.991 0.392 1.464 7.399 0.259 0.546 STANDARD DEVIATION 19 0.005 0.089 0.855 5.040 0.037 0.107 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 151 0.991 0.353 1.396 5.328 0.259 0.549 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 28 0.008 0.128 1.384 5.667 0.045 0.191 MINIMUM VALUE 99 0.982 0.242 0.321 2.959 0.181 0.355 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 133 0.988 0.331 0.755 3.707 0.237 0.464 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 161 0.996 0.459 2.139 9.374 0.282 0.655 MAXIMUM VALUE 170 0.998 0.574 3.151 22.920 0.338 0.703 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.285 0.171 0.012 -0.156 3.109 -0.205 0.744 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.205 SERIES 472181 AND 472232 154 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.744 SERIES 472211 AND 472212 131 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 79.63 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 78. 153. 190. 190. RBAR 0.240 0.322 0.311 0.386 SDEV 0.254 0.184 0.182 0.223 SERR 0.029 0.015 0.013 0.016 EPS 0.846 0.902 0.900 0.926 NSS 17.4 19.4 20.0 20.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1808 1977 170 0.932 0.236 0.114 3.649 0.187 0.577 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.636 0.323 -0.024 73 97 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.46 1.40 1.00 1.16 2.56 14.93 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.07 0.00 0.87 0.93 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.574 0.411 0.292 0.146 0.047 0.085 -0.051 -0.148 -0.109 -0.162 PACF 0.574 0.122 0.022 -0.088 -0.058 0.122 -0.170 -0.134 0.064 -0.070 95% C.L. 0.153 0.198 0.217 0.226 0.228 0.228 0.229 0.229 0.232 0.233 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.353 0.500 0.141 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.497 0.308 0.193 -0.009 -0.037 0.018 -0.065 -0.179 -0.093 -0.168 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.497 2 0.457 0.081 3 0.456 0.073 0.016 4 0.458 0.085 0.094 -0.171 5 0.460 0.085 0.093 -0.175 0.009 6 0.459 0.101 0.085 -0.182 -0.033 0.092 7 0.468 0.097 0.068 -0.174 -0.024 0.135 -0.095 8 0.449 0.124 0.063 -0.208 -0.010 0.154 -0.004 -0.195 9 0.465 0.124 0.051 -0.207 0.006 0.149 -0.014 -0.231 0.080 10 0.472 0.104 0.049 -0.194 0.007 0.131 -0.009 -0.220 0.120 -0.088 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1332.13 1285.93 1286.83 1288.78 1285.76 1287.75 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1288.32 1288.78 1284.21 1285.13 1285.82 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.497 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 24.69 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 132.78 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.497 0.247 0.123 0.061 0.030 0.015 0.007 0.004 0.002 0.0009 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 472151 1 0.203 0.449 2 472152 1 0.390 0.622 3 472161 1 0.224 0.473 4 472162 1 0.247 0.497 5 472171 1 0.229 0.479 6 472172 1 0.142 0.359 7 472181 1 0.274 0.415 8 472182 1 0.213 0.416 9 472191 1 0.499 0.682 10 472192 1 0.472 0.670 11 472201 1 0.462 0.680 12 472202 1 0.292 0.540 13 472211 1 0.218 0.466 14 472212 1 0.237 0.481 15 472221 1 0.371 0.569 16 472222 1 0.349 0.578 17 472231 1 0.438 0.654 18 472232 1 0.465 0.658 19 472241 1 0.420 0.600 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 472242 1 0.533 0.722 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.334 0.550 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.119 0.107 MEDIAN 1 0.321 0.554 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.223 0.187 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.142 0.359 LOWER HINGE 1 0.227 0.469 UPPER HINGE 1 0.450 0.656 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.533 0.722 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 472151 1815 1977 163 1.000 0.470 3.635 23.656 0.391 -0.017 2 472152 1819 1977 159 1.000 0.354 1.502 7.178 0.354 0.045 3 472161 1829 1977 149 1.000 0.296 1.134 5.101 0.317 0.007 4 472162 1832 1977 146 1.000 0.285 0.719 3.526 0.313 -0.010 5 472171 1820 1977 158 1.000 0.265 0.324 5.001 0.284 0.015 6 472172 1845 1977 133 1.000 0.309 2.777 21.328 0.273 -0.039 7 472181 1821 1977 157 1.000 0.324 1.658 9.196 0.343 -0.138 8 472182 1847 1977 131 1.000 0.392 2.255 9.993 0.366 -0.091 9 472191 1879 1977 99 1.001 0.417 1.569 7.447 0.389 0.176 10 472192 1870 1977 108 1.000 0.345 3.183 16.194 0.282 0.135 11 472201 1832 1977 146 1.001 0.372 1.724 10.707 0.380 0.018 12 472202 1844 1976 133 1.000 0.312 1.562 9.554 0.337 -0.019 13 472211 1847 1977 131 1.000 0.302 0.736 3.517 0.337 -0.026 14 472212 1844 1977 134 1.000 0.289 0.667 3.284 0.346 -0.049 15 472221 1813 1977 165 1.000 0.288 0.880 4.957 0.321 -0.149 16 472222 1808 1977 170 1.000 0.279 0.671 3.922 0.313 -0.095 17 472231 1812 1977 166 1.000 0.301 1.107 5.360 0.341 -0.085 18 472232 1824 1977 154 1.002 0.384 1.829 9.733 0.391 -0.126 19 472241 1821 1977 157 1.000 0.193 0.239 2.414 0.248 -0.179 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 472242 1809 1977 169 1.000 0.221 0.692 4.173 0.263 -0.132 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 146 1.000 0.320 1.443 8.312 0.329 -0.038 STANDARD DEVIATION 19 0.000 0.065 0.934 5.918 0.043 0.092 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 151 1.000 0.305 1.318 6.269 0.337 -0.032 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 28 0.000 0.077 1.071 5.815 0.061 0.122 MINIMUM VALUE 99 1.000 0.193 0.239 2.414 0.248 -0.179 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 133 1.000 0.286 0.705 4.048 0.299 -0.111 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 161 1.000 0.363 1.776 9.863 0.360 0.011 MAXIMUM VALUE 170 1.002 0.470 3.635 23.656 0.391 0.176 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.301 0.136 0.010 0.617 3.708 0.002 0.718 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.002 SERIES 472181 AND 472192 108 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.718 SERIES 472241 AND 472242 157 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 79.63 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 78. 153. 190. 190. RBAR 0.332 0.401 0.359 0.367 SDEV 0.173 0.152 0.151 0.168 SERR 0.020 0.012 0.011 0.012 EPS 0.896 0.929 0.918 0.921 NSS 17.4 19.4 20.0 20.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1808 1977 170 0.970 0.174 0.304 3.419 0.214 -0.117 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.499 0.248 -0.025 77 93 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.29 1.02 1.00 1.11 2.13 11.87 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.07 0.00 0.87 0.94 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.116 0.092 0.084 -0.032 -0.079 0.125 -0.016 -0.154 0.073 -0.038 PACF -0.116 0.080 0.105 -0.019 -0.106 0.105 0.035 -0.170 0.011 0.012 95% C.L. 0.153 0.155 0.157 0.158 0.158 0.159 0.161 0.161 0.165 0.165 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.020 -0.117 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.010 0.090 0.093 -0.034 -0.070 0.118 -0.021 -0.151 0.053 -0.048 PACF 0.010 0.090 0.092 -0.043 -0.089 0.121 0.001 -0.169 0.032 -0.007 95% C.L. 0.153 0.153 0.155 0.156 0.156 0.157 0.159 0.159 0.162 0.163 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.009 0.010 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1808 1977 170 0.970 0.207 0.233 2.882 0.154 0.550 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.547 0.358 0.226 0.078 0.022 0.069 -0.038 -0.126 -0.075 -0.133 PACF 0.547 0.083 0.002 -0.095 -0.005 0.108 -0.136 -0.126 0.072 -0.075 95% C.L. 0.153 0.194 0.209 0.215 0.215 0.215 0.216 0.216 0.218 0.218 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.314 0.555 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.24 MINUTES