RUN: SWIT001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWIT145L.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWIT145L.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 472 1 Madiswil BE, Fichte WIDTH_LATE PCAB - 472 2 Switzerland Norway spruce 675 4709-748 1808 1977 - 472 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 472151 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1963 1963 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 472202 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1963 1963 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 472151 1815 1977 163 0.362 0.196 1.010 5.446 0.485 0.382 2 472152 1819 1977 159 0.400 0.208 1.047 4.585 0.499 0.414 3 472161 1829 1977 149 0.418 0.218 1.124 4.588 0.474 0.416 4 472162 1832 1977 146 0.433 0.201 0.587 2.806 0.410 0.449 5 472171 1820 1977 158 0.398 0.176 0.175 2.973 0.431 0.428 6 472172 1845 1977 133 0.553 0.230 1.043 5.539 0.385 0.305 7 472181 1821 1977 157 0.532 0.319 1.003 4.084 0.506 0.475 8 472182 1847 1977 131 0.635 0.316 0.921 3.908 0.440 0.417 9 472191 1879 1977 99 0.683 0.330 1.532 6.497 0.408 0.324 10 472192 1870 1977 108 0.588 0.319 2.252 11.001 0.376 0.523 11 472201 1832 1977 146 0.413 0.368 1.425 4.908 0.558 0.631 12 472202 1844 1976 133 0.394 0.325 0.790 2.584 0.577 0.626 13 472211 1847 1977 131 0.433 0.197 1.020 5.209 0.442 0.210 14 472212 1844 1977 134 0.442 0.192 0.626 3.442 0.438 0.328 15 472221 1813 1977 165 0.438 0.343 2.088 9.209 0.531 0.656 16 472222 1808 1977 170 0.465 0.315 1.119 4.026 0.557 0.515 17 472231 1812 1977 166 0.254 0.163 1.872 9.544 0.524 0.301 18 472232 1824 1977 154 0.302 0.180 0.422 2.604 0.564 0.399 19 472241 1821 1977 157 0.424 0.211 1.498 6.845 0.315 0.629 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 472242 1809 1977 169 0.430 0.170 1.221 6.600 0.308 0.436 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 20 FROM 1808 TO 1977 170 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 146 0.450 0.249 1.139 5.320 0.462 0.443 STANDARD DEVIATION 19 0.104 0.070 0.528 2.377 0.080 0.124 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 151 0.431 0.215 1.045 4.748 0.458 0.422 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 28 0.099 0.125 0.607 2.873 0.118 0.164 MINIMUM VALUE 99 0.254 0.163 0.175 2.584 0.308 0.210 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 132 0.399 0.194 0.855 3.675 0.409 0.355 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 160 0.498 0.319 1.462 6.548 0.528 0.519 MAXIMUM VALUE 170 0.683 0.368 2.252 11.001 0.577 0.656 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.280 0.178 0.013 0.038 3.114 -0.187 0.813 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.187 SERIES 472191 AND 472222 99 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.813 SERIES 472201 AND 472202 133 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 79.63 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 78. 153. 190. 190. RBAR 0.263 0.358 0.364 0.339 SDEV 0.198 0.153 0.186 0.183 SERR 0.022 0.012 0.014 0.013 EPS 0.861 0.916 0.920 0.911 NSS 17.4 19.4 20.0 20.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1808 1977 170 0.405 0.145 0.137 2.958 0.333 0.445 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.627 0.342 0.046 85 85 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.68 2.08 1.01 1.18 3.25 61.72 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.08 0.00 0.86 0.95 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 152. 28. 99. 133. 161. 170. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.442 0.409 0.385 0.372 0.326 0.331 0.276 0.189 0.228 0.289 PACF 0.442 0.265 0.181 0.139 0.062 0.085 0.006 -0.086 0.043 0.138 95% C.L. 0.153 0.181 0.202 0.218 0.233 0.243 0.254 0.260 0.264 0.268 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.304 0.250 0.182 0.140 0.149 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 472151 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00147043 0.48322213 2 472152 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00063013 0.45072526 3 472161 1 0.35859546 0.02518305 0.00000000 0.32603633 4 472162 1 0.27004915 0.03628712 0.00000000 0.38280100 5 472171 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00135369 0.50584614 6 472172 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00127422 0.46778536 7 472181 1 0.75568438 0.04066790 0.00000000 0.41621041 8 472182 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00110196 0.56253785 9 472191 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00410810 0.88793033 10 472192 1 1.47101104 0.20705807 0.00000000 0.52875775 11 472201 1 1.01573193 0.02068040 0.00000000 0.09593198 12 472202 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 472211 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00107698 0.50367588 14 472212 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00114316 0.36462799 15 472221 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00341888 0.72188842 16 472222 1 0.41901305 0.00301368 0.00000000 0.13728453 17 472231 1 0.31084371 0.00530470 0.00000000 0.04805281 18 472232 1 0.33410797 0.01046574 0.00000000 0.13702051 19 472241 1 0.49525771 0.02445285 0.00000000 0.29977185 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 472242 1 0.42914689 0.00252869 0.00000000 0.08088598 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 472151 1815 1977 163 0.998 0.511 0.856 4.401 0.482 0.256 2 472152 1819 1977 159 1.000 0.509 0.894 3.989 0.496 0.379 3 472161 1829 1977 149 1.000 0.473 0.820 3.342 0.472 0.250 4 472162 1832 1977 146 0.999 0.455 0.780 3.553 0.408 0.379 5 472171 1820 1977 158 0.997 0.434 0.397 3.385 0.429 0.289 6 472172 1845 1977 133 1.001 0.388 0.484 3.972 0.382 0.268 7 472181 1821 1977 157 1.000 0.541 0.865 3.517 0.503 0.285 8 472182 1847 1977 131 1.000 0.484 0.763 3.536 0.437 0.403 9 472191 1879 1977 99 0.996 0.439 1.442 5.852 0.405 0.207 10 472192 1870 1977 108 1.000 0.436 1.079 3.878 0.372 0.388 11 472201 1832 1977 146 1.001 0.989 4.767 32.891 0.554 0.373 12 472202 1844 1976 133 0.988 0.924 7.310 68.032 0.573 0.123 13 472211 1847 1977 131 1.000 0.451 0.982 4.767 0.439 0.160 14 472212 1844 1977 134 1.001 0.413 0.346 2.958 0.435 0.267 15 472221 1813 1977 165 1.006 0.711 2.667 13.806 0.529 0.384 16 472222 1808 1977 170 1.000 0.681 1.191 4.136 0.554 0.470 17 472231 1812 1977 166 1.001 0.708 3.917 28.418 0.521 0.235 18 472232 1824 1977 154 1.000 0.621 1.251 5.043 0.561 0.298 19 472241 1821 1977 157 1.000 0.391 0.552 3.535 0.313 0.531 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 472242 1809 1977 169 1.000 0.372 0.719 4.380 0.307 0.403 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 146 0.999 0.547 1.604 10.370 0.459 0.317 STANDARD DEVIATION 19 0.003 0.174 1.774 15.934 0.079 0.103 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 151 1.000 0.479 0.879 4.062 0.455 0.294 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 28 0.001 0.217 0.605 1.912 0.119 0.132 MINIMUM VALUE 99 0.988 0.372 0.346 2.958 0.307 0.123 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 133 0.999 0.435 0.741 3.536 0.406 0.253 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 161 1.000 0.651 1.347 5.447 0.525 0.386 MAXIMUM VALUE 170 1.006 0.989 7.310 68.032 0.573 0.531 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 472151 -67 109 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 472152 -67 106 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 472161 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 472162 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 472171 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 472172 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 472181 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 472182 -67 87 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 472191 -67 66 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 472192 -67 72 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 472201 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 472202 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 472211 -67 87 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 472212 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 472221 -67 110 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 472222 -67 113 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 472231 -67 111 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 472232 -67 103 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 472241 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 472242 -67 113 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 472151 1815 1977 163 0.989 0.482 0.879 4.330 0.481 0.172 2 472152 1819 1977 159 0.985 0.439 0.714 3.691 0.495 0.188 3 472161 1829 1977 149 0.993 0.433 0.707 3.519 0.472 0.127 4 472162 1832 1977 146 0.994 0.396 0.546 2.906 0.408 0.186 5 472171 1820 1977 158 0.998 0.417 0.426 3.483 0.429 0.189 6 472172 1845 1977 133 0.998 0.368 0.287 3.297 0.382 0.155 7 472181 1821 1977 157 0.999 0.540 0.938 3.786 0.503 0.259 8 472182 1847 1977 131 0.998 0.478 0.816 3.737 0.437 0.382 9 472191 1879 1977 99 0.997 0.387 0.999 4.439 0.405 0.050 10 472192 1870 1977 108 0.999 0.415 0.851 3.398 0.372 0.338 11 472201 1832 1977 146 0.987 0.940 4.622 31.467 0.554 0.363 12 472202 1844 1976 133 0.995 0.908 7.213 66.729 0.573 0.117 13 472211 1847 1977 131 0.997 0.438 0.881 4.223 0.439 0.107 14 472212 1844 1977 134 0.994 0.376 0.293 3.216 0.436 0.100 15 472221 1813 1977 165 0.983 0.631 2.412 12.497 0.528 0.303 16 472222 1808 1977 170 0.965 0.534 0.741 3.458 0.554 0.301 17 472231 1812 1977 166 0.981 0.588 2.323 11.715 0.522 0.111 18 472232 1824 1977 154 0.990 0.590 1.138 4.407 0.560 0.278 19 472241 1821 1977 157 0.995 0.381 0.877 4.924 0.313 0.485 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 472242 1809 1977 169 0.998 0.365 0.761 4.677 0.307 0.381 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 146 0.992 0.505 1.421 9.195 0.458 0.230 STANDARD DEVIATION 19 0.008 0.164 1.684 15.021 0.079 0.119 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 151 0.995 0.439 0.864 4.004 0.455 0.189 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 28 0.010 0.172 0.358 1.330 0.119 0.199 MINIMUM VALUE 99 0.965 0.365 0.287 2.906 0.307 0.050 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 133 0.988 0.391 0.711 3.470 0.407 0.122 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 161 0.998 0.564 1.069 4.801 0.525 0.321 MAXIMUM VALUE 170 0.999 0.940 7.213 66.729 0.573 0.485 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.269 0.140 0.010 0.659 4.432 -0.040 0.801 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.040 SERIES 472161 AND 472191 99 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.801 SERIES 472201 AND 472202 133 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 79.63 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 78. 153. 190. 190. RBAR 0.275 0.339 0.377 0.340 SDEV 0.162 0.147 0.171 0.192 SERR 0.018 0.012 0.012 0.014 EPS 0.868 0.909 0.924 0.912 NSS 17.4 19.4 20.0 20.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1808 1977 170 0.927 0.275 -0.085 3.035 0.335 0.059 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.554 0.269 0.091 68 102 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.34 1.06 1.00 1.07 2.13 24.55 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.08 0.00 0.86 0.94 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.059 0.094 0.080 0.087 0.003 0.083 0.010 -0.128 0.003 0.070 PACF 0.059 0.091 0.070 0.073 -0.018 0.066 -0.007 -0.149 0.006 0.085 95% C.L. 0.153 0.154 0.155 0.156 0.157 0.157 0.158 0.158 0.161 0.161 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.058 -0.016 0.022 0.000 -0.083 0.021 0.014 -0.149 -0.028 -0.027 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.058 2 0.059 -0.019 3 0.060 -0.021 0.024 4 0.060 -0.021 0.025 -0.003 5 0.060 -0.019 0.023 0.002 -0.082 6 0.062 -0.019 0.022 0.002 -0.084 0.031 7 0.062 -0.018 0.022 0.002 -0.084 0.030 0.008 8 0.063 -0.014 0.010 0.002 -0.080 0.028 0.017 -0.148 9 0.061 -0.013 0.010 0.002 -0.080 0.028 0.017 -0.147 -0.011 10 0.061 -0.019 0.011 0.003 -0.083 0.028 0.017 -0.148 -0.008 -0.038 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1437.95 1439.38 1441.31 1443.21 1445.21 1446.07 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1447.90 1449.89 1448.14 1450.12 1451.88 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 0 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 472151 0 0.030 2 472152 0 0.036 3 472161 0 0.016 4 472162 0 0.035 5 472171 0 0.036 6 472172 0 0.025 7 472181 0 0.067 8 472182 0 0.146 9 472191 0 0.003 10 472192 0 0.115 11 472201 0 0.133 12 472202 0 0.014 13 472211 0 0.012 14 472212 0 0.010 15 472221 0 0.093 16 472222 0 0.092 17 472231 0 0.012 18 472232 0 0.078 19 472241 0 0.235 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 472242 0 0.147 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 0 0.067 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.062 MEDIAN 0 0.036 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.089 MINIMUM VALUE 0 0.003 LOWER HINGE 0 0.015 UPPER HINGE 0 0.104 MAXIMUM VALUE 0 0.235 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 472151 1815 1977 163 1.000 0.482 0.879 4.330 0.474 0.172 2 472152 1819 1977 159 1.000 0.439 0.714 3.691 0.486 0.188 3 472161 1829 1977 149 1.000 0.433 0.707 3.519 0.468 0.127 4 472162 1832 1977 146 1.000 0.396 0.546 2.906 0.405 0.186 5 472171 1820 1977 158 1.000 0.417 0.426 3.483 0.427 0.189 6 472172 1845 1977 133 1.000 0.368 0.287 3.297 0.382 0.155 7 472181 1821 1977 157 1.000 0.540 0.938 3.786 0.502 0.259 8 472182 1847 1977 131 1.000 0.478 0.816 3.737 0.436 0.382 9 472191 1879 1977 99 1.000 0.387 0.999 4.439 0.404 0.050 10 472192 1870 1977 108 1.000 0.415 0.851 3.398 0.372 0.338 11 472201 1832 1977 146 1.000 0.940 4.622 31.467 0.542 0.363 12 472202 1844 1976 133 1.000 0.908 7.213 66.729 0.569 0.117 13 472211 1847 1977 131 1.000 0.438 0.881 4.223 0.437 0.107 14 472212 1844 1977 134 1.000 0.376 0.293 3.216 0.432 0.100 15 472221 1813 1977 165 1.000 0.631 2.412 12.497 0.517 0.303 16 472222 1808 1977 170 1.000 0.534 0.741 3.458 0.528 0.301 17 472231 1812 1977 166 1.000 0.588 2.323 11.715 0.510 0.111 18 472232 1824 1977 154 1.000 0.590 1.138 4.407 0.553 0.278 19 472241 1821 1977 157 1.000 0.381 0.877 4.924 0.311 0.485 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 472242 1809 1977 169 1.000 0.365 0.761 4.677 0.306 0.381 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 146 1.000 0.505 1.421 9.195 0.453 0.230 STANDARD DEVIATION 19 0.000 0.164 1.684 15.021 0.075 0.119 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 151 1.000 0.439 0.864 4.004 0.453 0.189 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 28 0.000 0.172 0.358 1.330 0.108 0.199 MINIMUM VALUE 99 1.000 0.365 0.287 2.906 0.306 0.050 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 133 1.000 0.391 0.711 3.470 0.405 0.122 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 161 1.000 0.564 1.069 4.801 0.513 0.321 MAXIMUM VALUE 170 1.000 0.940 7.213 66.729 0.569 0.485 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.269 0.140 0.010 0.659 4.432 -0.040 0.801 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.040 SERIES 472161 AND 472191 99 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.801 SERIES 472201 AND 472202 133 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 79.63 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 78. 153. 190. 190. RBAR 0.275 0.339 0.377 0.340 SDEV 0.162 0.147 0.171 0.192 SERR 0.018 0.012 0.012 0.014 EPS 0.868 0.909 0.924 0.912 NSS 17.4 19.4 20.0 20.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1808 1977 170 0.937 0.274 -0.084 3.049 0.331 0.054 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.567 0.272 0.085 68 102 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.33 1.29 1.00 1.07 2.36 25.66 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.08 0.00 0.86 0.94 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.054 0.090 0.076 0.084 -0.001 0.079 0.008 -0.131 0.000 0.068 PACF 0.054 0.087 0.068 0.071 -0.020 0.063 -0.007 -0.150 0.003 0.084 95% C.L. 0.153 0.154 0.155 0.156 0.157 0.157 0.158 0.158 0.160 0.160 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1808 1977 170 0.937 0.274 -0.084 3.049 0.331 0.054 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.054 0.090 0.076 0.084 -0.001 0.079 0.008 -0.131 0.000 0.068 PACF 0.054 0.087 0.068 0.071 -0.020 0.063 -0.007 -0.150 0.003 0.084 95% C.L. 0.153 0.154 0.155 0.156 0.157 0.157 0.158 0.158 0.160 0.160 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 1.90 MINUTES