RUN: SWIT001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWIT145P.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWIT145P.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 472 1 Madiswil BE, Fichte LATEWOOD_PERCENT PCAB - 472 2 Switzerland Norway spruce 675 4709-748 1808 1977 - 472 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 472151 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1963 1963 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 472202 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1963 1963 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 472151 1815 1977 163 2.920 1.160 -0.022 3.093 0.399 0.188 2 472152 1819 1977 159 2.878 1.114 -0.217 2.612 0.396 0.339 3 472161 1829 1977 149 2.209 0.837 0.642 2.853 0.398 0.165 4 472162 1832 1977 146 2.282 0.842 0.600 2.606 0.361 0.162 5 472171 1820 1977 158 2.618 0.878 -0.451 3.247 0.338 0.283 6 472172 1845 1977 133 2.594 0.729 -0.524 2.627 0.288 0.277 7 472181 1821 1977 157 2.793 0.929 0.410 2.673 0.379 0.043 8 472182 1847 1977 131 2.914 0.998 -0.053 2.786 0.336 0.321 9 472191 1879 1977 99 2.727 1.365 0.208 2.235 0.400 0.574 10 472192 1870 1977 108 3.173 1.259 0.192 2.378 0.303 0.641 11 472201 1832 1977 146 2.380 0.931 0.864 6.115 0.418 0.081 12 472202 1844 1976 133 2.275 0.937 0.985 5.001 0.459 0.024 13 472211 1847 1977 131 1.953 0.725 1.017 4.557 0.408 0.025 14 472212 1844 1977 134 2.032 0.671 0.453 3.234 0.386 -0.019 15 472221 1813 1977 165 3.133 1.097 0.240 3.210 0.402 0.134 16 472222 1808 1977 170 2.962 1.058 -0.091 2.729 0.448 -0.019 17 472231 1812 1977 166 1.822 0.715 0.817 3.827 0.430 -0.037 18 472232 1824 1977 154 1.791 0.728 0.781 3.905 0.432 0.134 19 472241 1821 1977 157 2.817 0.699 0.182 2.935 0.250 0.180 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 472242 1809 1977 169 2.912 0.847 0.093 3.685 0.270 0.383 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 20 FROM 1808 TO 1977 170 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 146 2.559 0.926 0.306 3.315 0.375 0.194 STANDARD DEVIATION 19 0.435 0.198 0.460 0.972 0.059 0.189 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 151 2.673 0.903 0.224 3.014 0.397 0.163 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 28 0.671 0.349 0.749 1.106 0.076 0.268 MINIMUM VALUE 99 1.791 0.671 -0.524 2.235 0.250 -0.037 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 132 2.242 0.729 -0.037 2.650 0.337 0.034 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 160 2.913 1.077 0.711 3.756 0.413 0.302 MAXIMUM VALUE 170 3.173 1.365 1.017 6.115 0.459 0.641 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.277 0.166 0.012 -0.068 3.518 -0.205 0.766 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.205 SERIES 472182 AND 472192 108 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.766 SERIES 472241 AND 472242 157 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 79.63 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 78. 153. 190. 190. RBAR 0.309 0.415 0.390 0.318 SDEV 0.188 0.142 0.196 0.214 SERR 0.021 0.012 0.014 0.016 EPS 0.886 0.932 0.927 0.903 NSS 17.4 19.4 20.0 20.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1808 1977 170 2.511 0.633 0.601 4.804 0.261 0.166 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.088 0.042 0.784 45 125 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.36 0.61 1.01 1.13 1.74 4.17 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.06 0.00 0.87 0.92 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 152. 28. 99. 133. 161. 170. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.165 0.238 0.175 0.183 0.133 0.060 0.063 -0.018 -0.026 0.036 PACF 0.165 0.217 0.117 0.107 0.046 -0.036 -0.011 -0.074 -0.057 0.052 95% C.L. 0.153 0.158 0.166 0.170 0.175 0.177 0.178 0.178 0.178 0.178 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.130 0.065 0.188 0.156 0.139 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 472151 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01002779 2.11485600 2 472152 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00944056 2.12305713 3 472161 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00493927 1.83901775 4 472162 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00823217 1.67657912 5 472171 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00124632 2.51889229 6 472172 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00636619 3.02051950 7 472181 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00465253 3.16048026 8 472182 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00547216 3.27490306 9 472191 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.02152381 3.80356407 10 472192 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00082836 3.12763238 11 472201 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00396177 2.67098451 12 472202 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00704537 2.74827194 13 472211 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00407479 2.22221851 14 472212 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00244838 2.19757938 15 472221 1 2.37137008 0.00713520 0.00000000 1.74460685 16 472222 1 0.08162175 0.01226563 0.00000000 2.92805028 17 472231 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00048691 1.86246443 18 472232 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00067674 1.84374583 19 472241 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00080905 2.75264573 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 472242 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00434148 2.54328179 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 472151 1815 1977 163 0.998 0.375 -0.160 2.946 0.397 0.174 2 472152 1819 1977 159 0.997 0.372 -0.011 3.081 0.394 0.295 3 472161 1829 1977 149 1.000 0.365 0.630 3.061 0.396 0.105 4 472162 1832 1977 146 1.000 0.333 0.573 3.213 0.359 0.010 5 472171 1820 1977 158 1.000 0.336 -0.433 3.258 0.336 0.296 6 472172 1845 1977 133 1.000 0.275 -0.287 2.515 0.286 0.208 7 472181 1821 1977 157 1.000 0.323 0.376 2.649 0.376 -0.023 8 472182 1847 1977 131 1.000 0.343 0.141 3.107 0.334 0.286 9 472191 1879 1977 99 0.992 0.472 0.661 3.362 0.397 0.530 10 472192 1870 1977 108 1.000 0.397 0.186 2.369 0.300 0.633 11 472201 1832 1977 146 1.000 0.397 1.322 8.746 0.415 0.064 12 472202 1844 1976 133 0.999 0.404 1.609 9.088 0.454 -0.075 13 472211 1847 1977 131 1.000 0.364 0.975 4.086 0.405 -0.038 14 472212 1844 1977 134 1.000 0.327 0.416 3.014 0.383 -0.038 15 472221 1813 1977 165 1.000 0.337 0.820 5.756 0.400 -0.053 16 472222 1808 1977 170 1.000 0.358 -0.076 2.744 0.445 -0.019 17 472231 1812 1977 166 1.000 0.393 0.840 3.971 0.427 -0.042 18 472232 1824 1977 154 1.000 0.406 0.776 3.884 0.430 0.129 19 472241 1821 1977 157 1.000 0.249 0.222 2.958 0.248 0.176 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 472242 1809 1977 169 1.000 0.293 0.659 5.736 0.269 0.345 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 146 0.999 0.356 0.462 3.977 0.373 0.148 STANDARD DEVIATION 19 0.002 0.051 0.529 1.920 0.059 0.201 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 151 1.000 0.361 0.494 3.160 0.395 0.117 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 28 0.000 0.064 0.733 1.077 0.075 0.321 MINIMUM VALUE 99 0.992 0.249 -0.433 2.369 0.248 -0.075 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 133 1.000 0.330 0.065 2.952 0.335 -0.031 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 161 1.000 0.395 0.798 4.028 0.410 0.290 MAXIMUM VALUE 170 1.000 0.472 1.609 9.088 0.454 0.633 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 472151 -67 109 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 472152 -67 106 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 472161 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 472162 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 472171 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 472172 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 472181 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 472182 -67 87 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 472191 -67 66 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 472192 -67 72 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 472201 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 472202 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 472211 -67 87 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 472212 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 472221 -67 110 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 472222 -67 113 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 472231 -67 111 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 472232 -67 103 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 472241 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 472242 -67 113 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 472151 1815 1977 163 0.990 0.359 0.074 2.950 0.398 0.101 2 472152 1819 1977 159 0.992 0.343 0.064 3.261 0.394 0.135 3 472161 1829 1977 149 0.999 0.361 0.650 3.195 0.396 0.089 4 472162 1832 1977 146 0.999 0.332 0.635 3.499 0.359 -0.006 5 472171 1820 1977 158 0.994 0.311 -0.164 3.641 0.337 0.127 6 472172 1845 1977 133 0.998 0.267 -0.233 2.783 0.286 0.147 7 472181 1821 1977 157 1.000 0.323 0.416 2.751 0.376 -0.034 8 472182 1847 1977 131 0.997 0.334 0.266 3.326 0.333 0.246 9 472191 1879 1977 99 0.996 0.431 0.390 2.900 0.398 0.412 10 472192 1870 1977 108 0.994 0.311 0.171 4.054 0.299 0.292 11 472201 1832 1977 146 0.997 0.392 1.533 9.502 0.415 0.023 12 472202 1844 1976 133 0.998 0.395 1.822 11.078 0.454 -0.113 13 472211 1847 1977 131 0.999 0.359 0.971 4.035 0.405 -0.058 14 472212 1844 1977 134 0.999 0.321 0.435 2.995 0.383 -0.077 15 472221 1813 1977 165 0.999 0.334 0.772 5.557 0.400 -0.066 16 472222 1808 1977 170 0.998 0.347 -0.179 2.699 0.445 -0.081 17 472231 1812 1977 166 0.999 0.379 0.964 4.885 0.427 -0.108 18 472232 1824 1977 154 0.995 0.364 0.508 3.592 0.429 -0.021 19 472241 1821 1977 157 0.999 0.232 0.592 3.627 0.248 -0.007 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 472242 1809 1977 169 0.997 0.281 1.490 10.504 0.269 0.233 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 146 0.997 0.339 0.559 4.542 0.373 0.062 STANDARD DEVIATION 19 0.003 0.046 0.575 2.620 0.059 0.148 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 151 0.998 0.339 0.471 3.546 0.395 0.008 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 28 0.003 0.047 0.745 1.497 0.075 0.203 MINIMUM VALUE 99 0.990 0.232 -0.233 2.699 0.248 -0.113 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 133 0.996 0.316 0.123 2.972 0.335 -0.062 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 161 0.999 0.362 0.868 4.469 0.410 0.141 MAXIMUM VALUE 170 1.000 0.431 1.822 11.078 0.454 0.412 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.269 0.167 0.012 -0.248 3.697 -0.223 0.743 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.223 SERIES 472191 AND 472241 99 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.743 SERIES 472241 AND 472242 157 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 79.63 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 78. 153. 190. 190. RBAR 0.296 0.432 0.399 0.313 SDEV 0.197 0.138 0.186 0.227 SERR 0.022 0.011 0.014 0.016 EPS 0.879 0.936 0.930 0.901 NSS 17.4 19.4 20.0 20.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1808 1977 170 0.991 0.226 0.201 3.749 0.265 -0.004 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.307 0.162 0.115 48 122 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.21 0.38 1.01 1.06 1.43 5.79 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.06 0.00 0.87 0.94 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.004 0.124 0.025 0.059 -0.002 -0.022 -0.015 -0.127 -0.111 -0.048 PACF -0.004 0.124 0.026 0.045 -0.007 -0.036 -0.017 -0.125 -0.111 -0.019 95% C.L. 0.153 0.153 0.156 0.156 0.156 0.156 0.156 0.156 0.159 0.161 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.263 0.005 -0.028 0.017 -0.046 -0.007 0.060 -0.078 -0.051 0.074 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 -0.263 2 -0.281 -0.069 3 -0.284 -0.083 -0.048 4 -0.285 -0.083 -0.049 -0.003 5 -0.285 -0.085 -0.053 -0.017 -0.047 6 -0.286 -0.086 -0.055 -0.020 -0.057 -0.035 7 -0.285 -0.083 -0.054 -0.017 -0.053 -0.021 0.049 8 -0.282 -0.084 -0.057 -0.018 -0.056 -0.026 0.033 -0.057 9 -0.287 -0.081 -0.059 -0.023 -0.058 -0.031 0.025 -0.083 -0.092 10 -0.284 -0.079 -0.060 -0.022 -0.056 -0.030 0.027 -0.081 -0.082 0.034 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1288.19 1278.03 1279.21 1280.81 1282.81 1284.43 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1286.22 1287.81 1289.25 1289.80 1291.60 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.263 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 6.91 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 107.42 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 -0.263 0.069 -0.018 0.005 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 472151 1 0.086 0.102 2 472152 1 0.091 0.138 3 472161 1 0.009 0.090 4 472162 1 0.006 -0.006 5 472171 1 0.017 0.128 6 472172 1 0.033 0.149 7 472181 1 0.001 -0.034 8 472182 1 0.108 0.246 9 472191 1 0.194 0.422 10 472192 1 0.106 0.296 11 472201 1 0.001 0.023 12 472202 1 0.023 -0.114 13 472211 1 0.005 -0.059 14 472212 1 0.011 -0.078 15 472221 1 0.012 -0.066 16 472222 1 0.007 -0.082 17 472231 1 0.023 -0.108 18 472232 1 0.014 -0.021 19 472241 1 0.053 -0.008 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 472242 1 0.091 0.255 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.044 0.064 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.052 0.151 MEDIAN 1 0.020 0.009 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.081 0.205 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.001 -0.114 LOWER HINGE 1 0.008 -0.062 UPPER HINGE 1 0.088 0.143 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.194 0.422 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 472151 1815 1977 163 1.000 0.358 0.095 2.917 0.414 -0.028 2 472152 1819 1977 159 1.000 0.340 0.134 3.265 0.418 -0.039 3 472161 1829 1977 149 1.000 0.359 0.618 3.148 0.412 -0.002 4 472162 1832 1977 146 1.000 0.332 0.636 3.498 0.357 0.000 5 472171 1820 1977 158 1.000 0.308 -0.118 3.462 0.351 -0.005 6 472172 1845 1977 133 1.000 0.264 -0.309 2.820 0.306 -0.013 7 472181 1821 1977 157 1.000 0.323 0.412 2.744 0.370 0.000 8 472182 1847 1977 131 1.000 0.324 0.141 3.351 0.387 -0.055 9 472191 1879 1977 99 1.000 0.391 0.272 2.703 0.483 -0.049 10 472192 1870 1977 108 1.000 0.296 0.188 3.924 0.347 -0.041 11 472201 1832 1977 146 1.000 0.392 1.537 9.456 0.418 0.000 12 472202 1844 1976 133 1.000 0.392 1.851 11.381 0.432 -0.012 13 472211 1847 1977 131 1.000 0.359 1.002 4.115 0.392 -0.002 14 472212 1844 1977 134 1.000 0.320 0.446 3.002 0.368 0.006 15 472221 1813 1977 165 1.000 0.334 0.836 5.831 0.388 -0.006 16 472222 1808 1977 170 1.000 0.346 -0.182 2.747 0.429 0.001 17 472231 1812 1977 166 1.000 0.377 0.920 4.877 0.404 0.010 18 472232 1824 1977 154 1.000 0.364 0.508 3.575 0.422 0.002 19 472241 1821 1977 157 1.000 0.232 0.593 3.628 0.247 0.002 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 472242 1809 1977 169 1.000 0.270 1.031 7.561 0.304 -0.059 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 146 1.000 0.334 0.530 4.400 0.382 -0.014 STANDARD DEVIATION 19 0.000 0.044 0.554 2.393 0.054 0.022 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 151 1.000 0.337 0.477 3.480 0.390 -0.004 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 28 0.000 0.048 0.740 1.537 0.064 0.034 MINIMUM VALUE 99 1.000 0.232 -0.309 2.703 0.247 -0.059 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 133 1.000 0.314 0.138 2.959 0.354 -0.033 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 161 1.000 0.362 0.878 4.496 0.418 0.001 MAXIMUM VALUE 170 1.000 0.392 1.851 11.381 0.483 0.010 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.279 0.156 0.011 -0.161 3.785 -0.177 0.745 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.177 SERIES 472191 AND 472222 99 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.745 SERIES 472241 AND 472242 157 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 79.63 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 78. 153. 190. 190. RBAR 0.297 0.437 0.407 0.329 SDEV 0.192 0.134 0.179 0.205 SERR 0.022 0.011 0.013 0.015 EPS 0.880 0.938 0.932 0.908 NSS 17.4 19.4 20.0 20.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1808 1977 170 0.994 0.219 0.151 3.434 0.266 -0.070 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.266 0.134 0.136 45 125 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.15 0.28 1.00 1.06 1.34 4.45 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.07 0.00 0.88 0.94 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.070 0.098 0.011 0.041 -0.005 -0.027 0.001 -0.125 -0.094 -0.008 PACF -0.070 0.094 0.024 0.035 -0.004 -0.035 -0.004 -0.123 -0.112 0.002 95% C.L. 0.153 0.154 0.156 0.156 0.156 0.156 0.156 0.156 0.158 0.160 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.007 0.095 0.022 0.042 -0.004 -0.027 -0.010 -0.133 -0.104 -0.023 PACF 0.007 0.095 0.020 0.033 -0.009 -0.035 -0.010 -0.130 -0.103 0.003 95% C.L. 0.153 0.153 0.155 0.155 0.155 0.155 0.155 0.155 0.158 0.160 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.010 0.007 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1808 1977 170 0.994 0.228 0.069 2.915 0.305 -0.279 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.277 0.159 -0.033 0.047 -0.009 -0.026 0.023 -0.103 -0.073 0.026 PACF -0.277 0.090 0.035 0.035 0.010 -0.038 0.006 -0.097 -0.138 0.000 95% C.L. 0.153 0.165 0.168 0.168 0.169 0.169 0.169 0.169 0.170 0.171 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.085 -0.279 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.23 MINUTES