RUN: SWIT001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWIT146E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWIT146E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 523 1 Monte Generoso TI WIDTH_EARLY PCAB - 523 2 Switzerland Norway spruce 1600 4556-901 1917 1978 - 523 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES --- NO GAPS IN DATA FOUND --- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 523011 1926 1978 53 2.454 0.680 0.215 2.220 0.158 0.722 2 523012 1924 1978 55 2.309 0.639 1.359 6.236 0.201 0.544 3 523021 1925 1978 54 2.127 0.533 -0.086 2.455 0.211 0.485 4 523022 1927 1978 52 2.153 0.712 0.769 2.803 0.160 0.755 5 523031 1925 1978 54 2.016 0.789 0.479 2.829 0.189 0.800 6 523032 1922 1977 56 2.152 0.915 1.052 3.610 0.219 0.735 7 523041 1919 1978 60 2.220 1.119 0.470 2.238 0.222 0.831 8 523042 1919 1978 60 2.239 0.769 0.380 2.557 0.199 0.727 9 523051 1923 1978 56 2.913 0.601 0.789 4.902 0.198 0.335 10 523052 1924 1978 55 2.306 0.472 1.305 5.312 0.175 0.368 11 523061 1921 1978 58 2.351 0.811 0.706 3.197 0.194 0.671 12 523062 1930 1978 49 2.180 0.793 1.699 6.118 0.243 0.598 13 523071 1921 1978 58 2.457 0.732 0.855 4.926 0.186 0.654 14 523072 1921 1978 58 2.564 0.707 0.567 4.322 0.162 0.704 15 523081 1933 1978 46 2.784 1.428 2.739 12.037 0.322 0.553 16 523082 1932 1978 47 2.729 1.091 0.644 2.934 0.241 0.714 17 523091 1920 1978 59 2.198 0.973 0.698 2.708 0.235 0.738 18 523092 1917 1978 62 2.433 1.109 0.733 2.690 0.227 0.784 19 523101 1918 1978 61 2.371 0.611 -0.026 2.530 0.142 0.783 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 523102 1920 1978 59 2.554 0.870 -0.170 2.813 0.224 0.694 21 523111 1920 1978 59 2.489 0.858 0.625 2.735 0.192 0.719 22 523112 1945 1978 34 2.418 0.769 0.244 3.171 0.218 0.644 23 523121 1919 1978 60 1.918 0.622 0.402 3.674 0.219 0.563 24 523122 1930 1978 49 1.725 0.557 -0.265 2.971 0.245 0.599 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 24 FROM 1917 TO 1978 62 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 55 2.336 0.798 0.674 3.833 0.208 0.655 STANDARD DEVIATION 6 0.271 0.222 0.649 2.114 0.037 0.129 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 56 2.330 0.769 0.635 2.952 0.206 0.699 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 6 0.306 0.262 0.510 1.913 0.038 0.156 MINIMUM VALUE 34 1.725 0.472 -0.265 2.220 0.142 0.335 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 52 2.166 0.630 0.312 2.699 0.187 0.581 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 59 2.473 0.892 0.822 4.612 0.225 0.737 MAXIMUM VALUE 62 2.913 1.428 2.739 12.037 0.322 0.831 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.299 0.250 0.015 -0.332 2.927 -0.483 0.895 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.483 SERIES 523011 AND 523042 53 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.895 SERIES 523091 AND 523092 59 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 82.94 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1917 1978 62 2.393 0.575 0.869 4.382 0.133 0.676 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.220 0.078 0.511 18 44 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.06 0.27 1.00 1.02 1.29 2.82 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.04 0.00 0.89 0.92 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 56. 6. 34. 52. 59. 62. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.666 0.508 0.322 0.146 0.164 0.073 0.084 0.146 0.052 0.061 PACF 0.666 0.117 -0.099 -0.128 0.207 -0.093 0.041 0.146 -0.161 -0.008 95% C.L. 0.254 0.349 0.394 0.410 0.414 0.418 0.419 0.420 0.423 0.423 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.581 0.571 0.230 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 523011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.02860829 3.22657466 2 523012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01741775 2.79624248 3 523021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01066972 2.42082453 4 523022 1 2.06702590 0.06737200 0.00000000 1.59950280 5 523031 1 3.03991079 0.23315313 0.00000000 1.80116260 6 523032 1 2.07139993 0.07327236 0.00000000 1.67346358 7 523041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.03436955 1.17139542 8 523042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02648013 1.43168926 9 523051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00878777 2.66294146 10 523052 1 1.85938096 0.38155037 0.00000000 2.23359084 11 523061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00687410 2.14842105 12 523062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01348878 1.84298468 13 523071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.02398905 3.16457343 14 523072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00105878 2.59502721 15 523081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00134197 2.75237679 16 523082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02174607 2.20660496 17 523091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01158212 2.54526019 18 523092 1 3.84615588 0.20506084 0.00000000 2.16082859 19 523101 1 1.71475029 0.23513493 0.00000000 2.26510191 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 523102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01052893 2.23786092 21 523111 1 1.51279807 0.17804390 0.00000000 2.35724497 22 523112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00475936 2.33465242 23 523121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.02264990 2.60832214 24 523122 1 0.95826375 0.07592551 0.00000000 1.48339593 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 523011 1926 1978 53 0.999 0.205 0.203 3.224 0.157 0.538 2 523012 1924 1978 55 1.000 0.241 1.454 8.348 0.197 0.392 3 523021 1925 1978 54 1.000 0.238 -0.034 2.668 0.207 0.441 4 523022 1927 1978 52 1.000 0.226 0.101 3.072 0.158 0.565 5 523031 1925 1978 54 1.000 0.331 0.184 2.485 0.185 0.767 6 523032 1922 1977 56 1.000 0.354 0.814 3.171 0.215 0.645 7 523041 1919 1978 60 1.007 0.465 1.001 4.876 0.218 0.679 8 523042 1919 1978 60 1.006 0.310 0.954 4.538 0.196 0.585 9 523051 1923 1978 56 1.000 0.200 0.702 4.322 0.194 0.301 10 523052 1924 1978 55 1.000 0.178 0.780 3.096 0.170 0.194 11 523061 1921 1978 58 1.000 0.343 0.784 3.271 0.191 0.641 12 523062 1930 1978 49 0.999 0.351 1.741 6.201 0.238 0.569 13 523071 1921 1978 58 0.999 0.247 0.761 3.598 0.181 0.521 14 523072 1921 1978 58 1.000 0.277 0.614 4.401 0.159 0.694 15 523081 1933 1978 46 1.000 0.513 2.752 12.105 0.315 0.541 16 523082 1932 1978 47 0.999 0.381 0.682 3.488 0.236 0.660 17 523091 1920 1978 59 0.999 0.434 0.779 2.935 0.230 0.733 18 523092 1917 1978 62 0.999 0.405 0.895 3.387 0.224 0.717 19 523101 1918 1978 61 1.000 0.239 0.036 3.029 0.139 0.744 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 523102 1920 1978 59 1.000 0.338 -0.058 3.085 0.220 0.649 21 523111 1920 1978 59 1.000 0.339 1.052 3.873 0.187 0.703 22 523112 1945 1978 34 1.000 0.313 0.096 3.220 0.212 0.621 23 523121 1919 1978 60 0.998 0.257 0.577 3.761 0.214 0.395 24 523122 1930 1978 49 1.000 0.299 -0.173 4.199 0.240 0.503 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 55 1.000 0.312 0.696 4.181 0.204 0.575 STANDARD DEVIATION 6 0.002 0.087 0.653 2.105 0.037 0.146 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 56 1.000 0.312 0.732 3.438 0.202 0.603 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 6 0.001 0.113 0.782 1.271 0.039 0.175 MINIMUM VALUE 34 0.998 0.178 -0.173 2.485 0.139 0.194 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 52 0.999 0.240 0.142 3.090 0.183 0.512 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 59 1.000 0.353 0.925 4.362 0.222 0.687 MAXIMUM VALUE 62 1.007 0.513 2.752 12.105 0.315 0.767 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 523011 -67 35 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 523012 -67 36 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 523021 -67 36 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 523022 -67 34 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 523031 -67 36 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 523032 -67 37 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 523041 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 523042 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 523051 -67 37 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 523052 -67 36 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 523061 -67 38 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 523062 -67 32 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 523071 -67 38 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 523072 -67 38 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 523081 -67 30 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 523082 -67 31 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 523091 -67 39 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 523092 -67 41 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 523101 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 523102 -67 39 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 523111 -67 39 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 523112 -67 22 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 523121 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 523122 -67 32 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 523011 1926 1978 53 0.996 0.165 -0.160 3.677 0.156 0.317 2 523012 1924 1978 55 0.997 0.213 0.962 6.872 0.196 0.274 3 523021 1925 1978 54 0.997 0.201 -0.084 3.026 0.208 0.165 4 523022 1927 1978 52 0.997 0.207 0.152 3.932 0.156 0.508 5 523031 1925 1978 54 0.993 0.227 -0.022 2.508 0.179 0.542 6 523032 1922 1977 56 0.989 0.274 0.580 3.037 0.213 0.497 7 523041 1919 1978 60 0.966 0.255 0.606 3.587 0.214 0.369 8 523042 1919 1978 60 0.991 0.191 0.572 2.944 0.192 0.183 9 523051 1923 1978 56 0.998 0.182 0.688 4.393 0.193 0.156 10 523052 1924 1978 55 0.999 0.171 0.805 3.152 0.170 0.123 11 523061 1921 1978 58 0.992 0.285 0.516 3.527 0.192 0.509 12 523062 1930 1978 49 0.994 0.299 1.483 6.147 0.236 0.471 13 523071 1921 1978 58 0.996 0.214 0.830 3.881 0.180 0.417 14 523072 1921 1978 58 0.993 0.212 0.692 4.085 0.156 0.570 15 523081 1933 1978 46 0.991 0.399 1.543 6.937 0.316 0.374 16 523082 1932 1978 47 0.988 0.317 0.388 2.937 0.231 0.547 17 523091 1920 1978 59 0.978 0.290 0.236 2.681 0.226 0.535 18 523092 1917 1978 62 0.985 0.267 0.366 2.889 0.220 0.441 19 523101 1918 1978 61 0.993 0.176 0.086 3.815 0.138 0.531 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 523102 1920 1978 59 0.986 0.245 -0.833 4.862 0.219 0.447 21 523111 1920 1978 59 0.989 0.242 0.216 3.182 0.187 0.498 22 523112 1945 1978 34 0.994 0.210 -1.010 4.371 0.206 0.152 23 523121 1919 1978 60 0.996 0.226 0.510 4.551 0.212 0.265 24 523122 1930 1978 49 0.996 0.282 -0.305 4.196 0.240 0.459 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 55 0.991 0.240 0.367 3.966 0.201 0.390 STANDARD DEVIATION 6 0.007 0.055 0.603 1.218 0.037 0.148 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 56 0.993 0.227 0.449 3.746 0.201 0.444 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 6 0.007 0.074 0.658 1.351 0.040 0.239 MINIMUM VALUE 34 0.966 0.165 -1.010 2.508 0.138 0.123 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 52 0.989 0.204 0.032 3.032 0.179 0.270 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 59 0.996 0.278 0.690 4.382 0.220 0.508 MAXIMUM VALUE 62 0.999 0.399 1.543 6.937 0.316 0.570 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.307 0.182 0.011 -0.231 2.703 -0.145 0.758 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.145 SERIES 523031 AND 523082 47 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.758 SERIES 523091 AND 523092 59 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 82.94 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1917 1978 62 0.988 0.144 -0.239 3.295 0.143 0.301 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.337 0.141 0.048 20 42 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.10 0.21 1.02 1.04 1.25 2.07 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.07 0.00 0.86 0.93 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.296 0.171 -0.049 -0.197 -0.036 -0.111 0.040 -0.010 -0.115 -0.034 PACF 0.296 0.092 -0.135 -0.186 0.107 -0.082 0.057 -0.051 -0.136 0.016 95% C.L. 0.254 0.275 0.282 0.283 0.291 0.292 0.294 0.295 0.295 0.298 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.097 0.298 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.335 0.243 0.002 -0.200 -0.029 -0.189 -0.083 -0.081 -0.126 0.009 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.335 2 0.285 0.148 3 0.305 0.186 -0.134 4 0.273 0.230 -0.062 -0.236 5 0.308 0.239 -0.097 -0.276 0.149 6 0.330 0.199 -0.111 -0.242 0.193 -0.145 7 0.323 0.208 -0.121 -0.247 0.202 -0.130 -0.045 8 0.322 0.204 -0.116 -0.254 0.199 -0.124 -0.036 -0.028 9 0.320 0.202 -0.125 -0.240 0.181 -0.132 -0.022 -0.005 -0.070 10 0.321 0.202 -0.124 -0.237 0.178 -0.128 -0.020 -0.009 -0.076 0.018 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 395.83 390.47 391.10 391.97 390.42 391.04 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 391.72 393.60 395.55 397.25 399.23 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.335 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 11.20 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 112.61 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.335 0.112 0.037 0.013 0.004 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 523011 1 0.105 0.323 2 523012 1 0.078 0.280 3 523021 1 0.045 0.172 4 523022 1 0.265 0.510 5 523031 1 0.319 0.561 6 523032 1 0.254 0.498 7 523041 1 0.158 0.390 8 523042 1 0.042 0.190 9 523051 1 0.025 0.159 10 523052 1 0.038 0.126 11 523061 1 0.267 0.514 12 523062 1 0.222 0.471 13 523071 1 0.190 0.431 14 523072 1 0.370 0.588 15 523081 1 0.145 0.380 16 523082 1 0.318 0.562 17 523091 1 0.303 0.541 18 523092 1 0.231 0.450 19 523101 1 0.305 0.535 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 523102 1 0.204 0.449 21 523111 1 0.271 0.504 22 523112 1 0.024 0.155 23 523121 1 0.075 0.272 24 523122 1 0.211 0.460 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.186 0.397 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.109 0.149 MEDIAN 1 0.208 0.449 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.192 0.236 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.024 0.126 LOWER HINGE 1 0.077 0.276 UPPER HINGE 1 0.269 0.512 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.370 0.588 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 523011 1926 1978 53 1.000 0.156 -0.211 4.045 0.180 -0.006 2 523012 1924 1978 55 1.000 0.204 1.355 8.455 0.223 0.004 3 523021 1925 1978 54 1.000 0.198 -0.005 3.223 0.223 0.028 4 523022 1927 1978 52 1.000 0.178 -0.354 6.282 0.185 0.044 5 523031 1925 1978 54 1.000 0.188 0.290 2.770 0.211 0.058 6 523032 1922 1977 56 1.000 0.238 0.845 4.301 0.266 -0.041 7 523041 1919 1978 60 1.000 0.234 0.595 3.650 0.256 -0.043 8 523042 1919 1978 60 1.000 0.188 0.486 2.968 0.214 -0.016 9 523051 1923 1978 56 1.000 0.179 0.791 4.785 0.208 0.003 10 523052 1924 1978 55 1.000 0.169 0.918 3.472 0.180 0.019 11 523061 1921 1978 58 1.000 0.244 1.515 6.906 0.209 -0.035 12 523062 1930 1978 49 1.000 0.264 1.222 5.707 0.273 0.002 13 523071 1921 1978 58 1.000 0.192 0.861 3.838 0.202 0.031 14 523072 1921 1978 58 1.000 0.171 0.272 4.017 0.192 0.127 15 523081 1933 1978 46 1.000 0.368 1.688 7.539 0.334 -0.009 16 523082 1932 1978 47 1.000 0.262 0.691 3.983 0.284 0.039 17 523091 1920 1978 59 1.000 0.243 0.445 2.837 0.279 -0.071 18 523092 1917 1978 62 1.000 0.238 0.431 2.837 0.275 -0.080 19 523101 1918 1978 61 1.000 0.148 0.224 4.279 0.175 -0.088 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 523102 1920 1978 59 1.000 0.219 -0.312 4.803 0.263 -0.023 21 523111 1920 1978 59 1.000 0.209 0.320 4.412 0.228 -0.070 22 523112 1945 1978 34 1.000 0.208 -0.970 4.316 0.227 0.005 23 523121 1919 1978 60 1.000 0.217 0.399 4.278 0.235 0.000 24 523122 1930 1978 49 1.000 0.250 0.111 3.138 0.285 -0.001 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 55 1.000 0.215 0.484 4.452 0.234 -0.005 STANDARD DEVIATION 6 0.000 0.046 0.623 1.516 0.042 0.049 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 56 1.000 0.208 0.438 4.162 0.225 -0.001 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 6 0.000 0.057 0.686 1.446 0.065 0.061 MINIMUM VALUE 34 1.000 0.148 -0.970 2.770 0.175 -0.088 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 52 1.000 0.184 0.168 3.348 0.205 -0.038 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 59 1.000 0.241 0.853 4.794 0.270 0.023 MAXIMUM VALUE 62 1.000 0.368 1.688 8.455 0.334 0.127 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.344 0.159 0.010 -0.186 2.554 -0.081 0.702 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.081 SERIES 523071 AND 523112 34 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.702 SERIES 523091 AND 523092 59 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 82.94 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1917 1978 62 0.997 0.132 -0.193 3.475 0.159 -0.109 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.407 0.164 -0.004 24 38 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.20 0.44 1.01 1.05 1.49 3.03 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.08 0.00 0.86 0.94 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.107 0.088 -0.075 -0.249 0.093 -0.123 0.118 0.045 -0.118 0.074 PACF -0.107 0.077 -0.059 -0.274 0.055 -0.075 0.049 0.026 -0.118 0.011 95% C.L. 0.254 0.257 0.259 0.260 0.275 0.277 0.281 0.284 0.284 0.287 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.009 0.071 -0.094 -0.253 0.054 -0.102 0.112 0.046 -0.108 0.042 PACF 0.009 0.071 -0.095 -0.260 0.075 -0.077 0.059 0.007 -0.117 0.011 95% C.L. 0.254 0.254 0.255 0.257 0.273 0.274 0.276 0.279 0.280 0.282 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.005 0.009 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1917 1978 62 0.997 0.140 -0.262 3.167 0.133 0.351 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.345 0.122 -0.114 -0.250 -0.054 -0.076 0.078 0.032 -0.091 -0.042 PACF 0.345 0.003 -0.178 -0.184 0.133 -0.083 0.073 -0.055 -0.118 0.016 95% C.L. 0.254 0.283 0.286 0.289 0.303 0.303 0.304 0.306 0.306 0.308 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.121 0.347 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.21 MINUTES