RUN: SWIT001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWIT147E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWIT147E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 550 1 Rźti b.Bźren BE, Ta.abst WIDTH_EARLY ABAL - 550 2 Switzerland silver fir, European fir 555 4709-726 1889 1979 - 550 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 4 550022 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1974 1974 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 550051 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1973 1973 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 550061 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1974 1974 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 550071 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1960 1960 / 1963 1963 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 550072 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1963 1963 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 21 550111 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1976 1976 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 22 550112 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1971 1971 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 23 550121 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1968 1968 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 24 550122 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1964 1964 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 550011 1917 1975 59 2.352 1.441 0.358 2.102 0.279 0.840 2 550012 1921 1975 55 2.879 1.867 0.705 2.781 0.295 0.795 3 550021 1913 1979 67 1.680 1.136 0.695 2.899 0.283 0.861 4 550022 1920 1979 60 1.475 1.107 1.220 4.683 0.313 0.821 5 550031 1914 1979 66 1.949 1.216 0.415 2.559 0.331 0.838 6 550032 1922 1979 58 1.733 1.241 1.624 5.198 0.278 0.897 7 550041 1924 1972 49 1.931 1.268 1.137 3.930 0.332 0.749 8 550042 1921 1972 52 2.192 1.365 0.314 2.224 0.334 0.854 9 550051 1914 1976 63 3.063 1.956 0.326 2.048 0.305 0.800 10 550052 1914 1972 59 2.164 1.469 0.243 2.173 0.290 0.808 11 550061 1911 1976 66 2.222 1.084 -0.254 2.363 0.335 0.734 12 550062 1911 1976 66 2.109 1.173 -0.267 1.999 0.347 0.756 13 550071 1906 1964 59 2.098 1.861 1.208 3.792 0.307 0.918 14 550072 1902 1968 67 2.252 1.761 0.712 2.528 0.408 0.741 15 550081 1909 1979 71 2.196 1.400 1.028 3.713 0.267 0.861 16 550082 1911 1979 69 2.110 1.587 1.287 3.909 0.232 0.888 17 550091 1910 1972 63 2.397 1.244 0.423 3.152 0.236 0.840 18 550092 1909 1970 62 2.400 0.990 -0.385 3.188 0.242 0.786 19 550101 1889 1974 86 2.043 1.368 0.609 3.187 0.271 0.848 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 550102 1894 1975 82 1.989 1.070 0.299 2.248 0.299 0.774 21 550111 1897 1977 81 1.615 0.650 -0.289 2.755 0.290 0.576 22 550112 1898 1974 77 1.430 0.809 0.730 4.024 0.284 0.736 23 550121 1907 1973 67 1.206 0.843 0.667 3.184 0.285 0.840 24 550122 1908 1971 64 1.451 0.904 0.494 3.289 0.339 0.794 25 550131 1922 1979 58 1.816 1.186 1.083 3.601 0.274 0.850 26 550132 1909 1976 68 1.737 1.132 0.859 3.125 0.320 0.824 27 550141 1903 1972 70 2.182 1.527 1.624 5.698 0.267 0.901 28 550142 1913 1973 61 2.026 1.525 0.483 2.763 0.263 0.900 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 28 FROM 1889 TO 1979 91 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 65 2.025 1.292 0.620 3.183 0.297 0.815 STANDARD DEVIATION 8 0.412 0.327 0.541 0.944 0.038 0.071 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 64 2.071 1.243 0.638 3.139 0.290 0.831 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 9 0.474 0.401 0.736 1.307 0.053 0.077 MINIMUM VALUE 49 1.206 0.650 -0.385 1.999 0.232 0.576 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 59 1.735 1.095 0.320 2.446 0.272 0.780 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 68 2.209 1.497 1.055 3.752 0.325 0.857 MAXIMUM VALUE 86 3.063 1.956 1.624 5.698 0.408 0.918 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 378 0.604 0.187 0.010 -0.787 3.570 -0.049 0.928 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.049 SERIES 550071 AND 550091 55 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.928 SERIES 550081 AND 550082 69 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 63.84 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1940. CORR 210. RBAR 0.466 SDEV 0.237 SERR 0.016 EPS 0.959 NSS 27.2 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1889 1979 91 1.925 0.956 -0.128 2.288 0.204 0.865 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.597 0.266 0.196 40 51 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.35 0.48 1.01 1.14 1.62 97.56 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.10 0.00 0.87 0.97 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 65. 10. 49. 59. 68. 86. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.855 0.786 0.695 0.693 0.661 0.641 0.600 0.549 0.503 0.475 PACF 0.855 0.200 -0.054 0.271 0.034 0.006 0.015 -0.087 -0.026 0.031 95% C.L. 0.210 0.329 0.403 0.453 0.497 0.534 0.567 0.594 0.616 0.634 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.788 0.654 0.256 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 550011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.07384629 4.56776142 2 550012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.10471717 5.81135368 3 550021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.04515803 3.21582103 4 550022 5 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000 1.45285022 5 550031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.03804029 3.22344065 6 550032 1 4.29418612 0.05981481 0.00000000 0.56904745 7 550041 1 4.46850395 0.10915199 0.00000000 1.14407873 8 550042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.07256809 4.11497736 9 550051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.04590219 4.49307394 10 550052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.05218586 3.72947407 11 550061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.04219336 3.60584879 12 550062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.04098821 3.48189282 13 550071 5 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000 2.02958584 14 550072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.06100303 4.29459667 15 550081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.05686050 4.24303436 16 550082 1 5.95170689 0.04990879 0.00000000 0.47835928 17 550091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01704781 2.94203782 18 550092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.02236811 3.10427284 19 550101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.03373272 3.51086187 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 550102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.02764913 3.13609767 21 550111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01299329 2.12928295 22 550112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01844756 2.13488388 23 550121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.02820139 2.14822340 24 550122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.02496170 2.24388051 25 550131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.05956012 3.57288575 26 550132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.03986583 3.11228275 27 550141 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.02503981 3.07134151 28 550142 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.06546113 4.05568838 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 550011 1917 1975 59 1.005 0.293 0.689 4.306 0.270 0.388 2 550012 1921 1975 55 1.220 0.903 3.640 14.774 0.278 0.628 3 550021 1913 1979 67 0.989 0.427 0.674 3.178 0.270 0.630 4 550022 1920 1979 60 1.000 0.765 1.218 4.658 0.317 0.819 5 550031 1914 1979 66 0.962 0.460 -0.069 2.246 0.326 0.709 6 550032 1922 1979 58 0.996 0.386 0.056 2.229 0.270 0.562 7 550041 1924 1972 49 1.001 0.499 0.896 4.617 0.328 0.610 8 550042 1921 1972 52 0.966 0.406 0.652 3.659 0.320 0.430 9 550051 1914 1976 63 0.968 0.597 0.636 2.363 0.314 0.784 10 550052 1914 1972 59 0.932 0.555 0.385 2.166 0.279 0.774 11 550061 1911 1976 66 0.976 0.366 -0.311 2.989 0.330 0.484 12 550062 1911 1976 66 0.956 0.454 0.109 2.698 0.341 0.655 13 550071 1906 1964 59 1.000 0.919 1.230 3.830 0.315 0.914 14 550072 1902 1968 67 0.913 0.516 0.822 3.126 0.399 0.672 15 550081 1909 1979 71 1.028 0.332 0.168 2.393 0.260 0.514 16 550082 1911 1979 69 0.990 0.341 0.070 3.416 0.226 0.622 17 550091 1910 1972 63 0.995 0.545 0.912 3.808 0.232 0.843 18 550092 1909 1970 62 0.993 0.413 0.160 3.841 0.239 0.764 19 550101 1889 1974 86 0.956 0.554 1.492 6.162 0.262 0.793 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 550102 1894 1975 82 0.978 0.442 0.746 3.477 0.293 0.663 21 550111 1897 1977 81 0.992 0.405 0.013 2.820 0.298 0.590 22 550112 1898 1974 77 0.976 0.513 1.183 4.702 0.281 0.719 23 550121 1907 1973 67 0.929 0.545 0.995 3.402 0.292 0.805 24 550122 1908 1971 64 0.959 0.593 0.950 3.662 0.350 0.763 25 550131 1922 1979 58 1.102 0.538 2.550 11.225 0.269 0.509 26 550132 1909 1976 68 0.996 0.444 0.626 3.202 0.312 0.632 27 550141 1903 1972 70 0.978 0.656 1.668 5.571 0.260 0.869 28 550142 1913 1973 61 0.964 0.579 2.074 10.080 0.261 0.508 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 65 0.990 0.516 0.866 4.450 0.293 0.666 STANDARD DEVIATION 8 0.057 0.153 0.855 2.921 0.039 0.137 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 65 0.984 0.506 0.717 3.568 0.286 0.659 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 9 0.035 0.158 1.036 1.734 0.054 0.202 MINIMUM VALUE 49 0.913 0.293 -0.311 2.166 0.226 0.388 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 59 0.963 0.409 0.164 2.904 0.265 0.576 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 68 0.998 0.567 1.201 4.638 0.319 0.779 MAXIMUM VALUE 86 1.220 0.919 3.640 14.774 0.399 0.914 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 550011 -67 39 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 550012 -67 36 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 550021 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 550022 5 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.99999803 5 550031 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 550032 -67 38 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 550041 -67 32 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 550042 -67 34 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 550051 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 550052 -67 39 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 550061 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 550062 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 550071 5 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000 1.00000191 14 550072 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 550081 -67 47 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 550082 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 550091 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 550092 -67 41 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 550101 -67 57 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 550102 -67 54 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 550111 -67 54 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 550112 -67 51 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 550121 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 550122 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 550131 -67 38 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 550132 -67 45 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 27 550141 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 28 550142 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 550011 1917 1975 59 0.995 0.246 0.103 3.581 0.268 0.139 2 550012 1921 1975 55 0.994 0.326 1.135 6.276 0.275 0.373 3 550021 1913 1979 67 0.986 0.384 0.650 3.378 0.269 0.564 4 550022 1920 1979 60 1.000 0.765 1.218 4.658 0.317 0.819 5 550031 1914 1979 66 0.990 0.377 -0.096 2.660 0.329 0.473 6 550032 1922 1979 58 0.983 0.261 -0.035 2.194 0.263 0.203 7 550041 1924 1972 49 0.986 0.316 0.362 3.458 0.328 0.228 8 550042 1921 1972 52 0.988 0.368 1.222 6.214 0.318 0.240 9 550051 1914 1976 63 1.010 0.385 0.442 2.942 0.317 0.413 10 550052 1914 1972 59 1.052 0.507 2.298 11.435 0.287 0.505 11 550061 1911 1976 66 0.991 0.311 -0.083 4.480 0.330 0.207 12 550062 1911 1976 66 0.991 0.304 0.237 4.304 0.342 0.073 13 550071 1906 1964 59 1.000 0.919 1.230 3.830 0.315 0.914 14 550072 1902 1968 67 0.986 0.400 0.387 3.073 0.398 0.341 15 550081 1909 1979 71 0.997 0.293 0.005 2.765 0.259 0.415 16 550082 1911 1979 69 0.983 0.243 0.249 3.387 0.220 0.357 17 550091 1910 1972 63 0.983 0.334 0.575 3.359 0.234 0.565 18 550092 1909 1970 62 0.976 0.259 -0.218 4.390 0.241 0.508 19 550101 1889 1974 86 0.979 0.429 1.360 5.298 0.262 0.673 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 550102 1894 1975 82 0.995 0.391 0.755 3.368 0.295 0.544 21 550111 1897 1977 81 0.985 0.333 0.388 3.282 0.292 0.407 22 550112 1898 1974 77 0.993 0.346 0.485 3.506 0.278 0.478 23 550121 1907 1973 67 0.997 0.415 0.807 3.375 0.292 0.591 24 550122 1908 1971 64 1.058 0.669 5.146 33.479 0.354 0.210 25 550131 1922 1979 58 0.994 0.321 1.261 5.901 0.270 0.330 26 550132 1909 1976 68 0.986 0.374 0.228 2.703 0.313 0.482 27 550141 1903 1972 70 0.989 0.348 0.589 3.294 0.261 0.551 28 550142 1913 1973 61 0.957 0.434 2.001 8.964 0.255 0.406 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 65 0.994 0.395 0.811 5.341 0.292 0.429 STANDARD DEVIATION 8 0.020 0.154 1.054 5.865 0.040 0.194 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 65 0.991 0.358 0.530 3.482 0.290 0.414 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 9 0.011 0.095 0.987 1.690 0.055 0.262 MINIMUM VALUE 49 0.957 0.243 -0.218 2.194 0.220 0.073 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 59 0.985 0.313 0.232 3.288 0.262 0.285 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 68 0.996 0.408 1.220 4.978 0.318 0.547 MAXIMUM VALUE 86 1.058 0.919 5.146 33.479 0.398 0.914 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 378 0.239 0.199 0.010 -0.105 3.084 -0.302 0.810 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.302 SERIES 550061 AND 550071 54 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.810 SERIES 550131 AND 550142 52 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 63.84 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1940. CORR 210. RBAR 0.302 SDEV 0.216 SERR 0.015 EPS 0.921 NSS 27.2 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1889 1979 91 0.981 0.209 -0.081 2.846 0.203 0.347 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.063 0.036 0.237 45 46 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.33 1.36 1.01 1.15 2.51 7.95 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.11 0.00 0.87 0.98 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.343 0.148 -0.091 -0.067 -0.137 -0.053 -0.121 -0.114 -0.138 -0.224 PACF 0.343 0.034 -0.172 0.011 -0.098 0.012 -0.106 -0.082 -0.072 -0.212 95% C.L. 0.210 0.233 0.237 0.239 0.239 0.243 0.243 0.246 0.248 0.252 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.121 0.346 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.311 0.262 0.037 0.134 -0.003 -0.046 -0.106 -0.170 -0.115 -0.209 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.311 2 0.254 0.183 3 0.272 0.208 -0.098 4 0.283 0.184 -0.130 0.116 5 0.290 0.176 -0.119 0.132 -0.059 6 0.284 0.189 -0.130 0.149 -0.031 -0.095 7 0.280 0.187 -0.123 0.142 -0.021 -0.080 -0.051 8 0.273 0.176 -0.126 0.162 -0.038 -0.055 -0.013 -0.135 9 0.272 0.176 -0.126 0.161 -0.037 -0.055 -0.013 -0.134 -0.003 10 0.272 0.159 -0.128 0.154 -0.042 -0.034 -0.029 -0.110 0.033 -0.133 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 679.50 672.26 671.16 672.28 673.05 674.74 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 675.92 677.69 678.02 680.02 680.39 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.254 0.183 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 12.68 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 114.52 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.254 0.247 0.109 0.073 0.039 0.023 0.013 0.008 0.004 0.0025 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 550011 2 0.118 0.148 -0.040 2 550012 2 0.194 0.303 0.216 3 550021 2 0.362 0.570 -0.004 4 550022 2 0.766 0.448 0.463 5 550031 2 0.239 0.502 -0.029 6 550032 2 0.062 0.208 -0.009 7 550041 2 0.117 0.186 0.221 8 550042 2 0.068 0.227 0.079 9 550051 2 0.197 0.437 0.010 10 550052 2 0.457 0.605 0.058 11 550061 2 0.061 0.211 0.011 12 550062 2 0.015 0.080 -0.095 13 550071 2 0.853 0.892 0.034 14 550072 2 0.133 0.347 0.010 15 550081 2 0.185 0.430 -0.013 16 550082 2 0.148 0.308 0.145 17 550091 2 0.403 0.582 0.053 18 550092 2 0.270 0.548 -0.068 19 550101 2 0.488 0.812 -0.186 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 550102 2 0.379 0.526 0.052 21 550111 2 0.197 0.392 0.044 22 550112 2 0.249 0.548 -0.130 23 550121 2 0.361 0.567 0.050 24 550122 2 0.141 0.256 0.202 25 550131 2 0.138 0.336 -0.007 26 550132 2 0.257 0.560 -0.142 27 550141 2 0.361 0.542 0.044 28 550142 2 0.244 0.457 0.060 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.267 0.430 0.037 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.198 0.193 0.129 MEDIAN 2 0.218 0.442 0.022 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.226 0.274 0.080 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.015 0.080 -0.186 LOWER HINGE 2 0.135 0.280 -0.021 UPPER HINGE 2 0.362 0.554 0.059 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.853 0.892 0.463 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 550011 1917 1975 59 1.000 0.243 0.034 3.246 0.281 -0.008 2 550012 1921 1975 55 1.000 0.293 1.226 7.294 0.309 0.025 3 550021 1913 1979 67 1.000 0.316 0.470 4.728 0.331 -0.004 4 550022 1920 1979 60 1.000 0.361 1.523 6.027 0.324 0.017 5 550031 1914 1979 66 1.000 0.327 0.086 2.751 0.374 -0.013 6 550032 1922 1979 58 1.000 0.255 -0.036 2.262 0.280 -0.002 7 550041 1924 1972 49 1.000 0.299 0.249 3.491 0.345 0.037 8 550042 1921 1972 52 1.000 0.355 1.420 7.232 0.341 -0.004 9 550051 1914 1976 63 1.000 0.343 0.569 3.445 0.387 -0.008 10 550052 1914 1972 59 1.000 0.385 1.647 9.052 0.369 0.131 11 550061 1911 1976 66 1.000 0.303 0.218 5.116 0.349 0.005 12 550062 1911 1976 66 1.000 0.302 0.203 4.645 0.347 0.003 13 550071 1906 1964 59 1.010 0.311 0.408 5.563 0.301 0.034 14 550072 1902 1968 67 1.000 0.374 0.169 2.788 0.462 0.001 15 550081 1909 1979 71 1.000 0.264 0.044 2.749 0.312 -0.003 16 550082 1911 1979 69 1.000 0.224 0.298 3.176 0.248 0.002 17 550091 1910 1972 63 1.000 0.261 0.865 5.111 0.281 0.031 18 550092 1909 1970 62 1.000 0.222 -0.256 3.944 0.265 -0.002 19 550101 1889 1974 86 1.000 0.306 1.169 5.169 0.335 -0.006 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 550102 1894 1975 82 1.000 0.324 0.623 2.983 0.364 0.023 21 550111 1897 1977 81 1.000 0.303 0.491 3.221 0.338 0.004 22 550112 1898 1974 77 1.000 0.299 0.368 3.517 0.343 0.012 23 550121 1907 1973 67 1.000 0.333 0.613 3.237 0.377 0.002 24 550122 1908 1971 64 1.000 0.619 5.352 35.363 0.408 0.084 25 550131 1922 1979 58 1.000 0.302 1.786 7.937 0.294 -0.002 26 550132 1909 1976 68 1.000 0.322 0.181 3.249 0.397 0.012 27 550141 1903 1972 70 1.000 0.284 0.431 3.169 0.323 -0.003 28 550142 1913 1973 61 1.000 0.378 3.040 15.122 0.286 0.069 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 65 1.000 0.318 0.828 5.914 0.335 0.016 STANDARD DEVIATION 8 0.002 0.073 1.138 6.358 0.048 0.032 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 65 1.000 0.305 0.450 3.731 0.336 0.003 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 9 0.000 0.049 1.005 2.597 0.068 0.027 MINIMUM VALUE 49 1.000 0.222 -0.256 2.262 0.248 -0.013 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 59 1.000 0.289 0.192 3.198 0.298 -0.003 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 68 1.000 0.338 1.197 5.795 0.366 0.024 MAXIMUM VALUE 86 1.010 0.619 5.352 35.363 0.462 0.131 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 378 0.299 0.164 0.008 0.074 2.931 -0.165 0.820 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.165 SERIES 550021 AND 550142 61 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.820 SERIES 550131 AND 550142 52 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 63.84 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1940. CORR 210. RBAR 0.373 SDEV 0.168 SERR 0.012 EPS 0.942 NSS 27.2 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1889 1979 91 0.993 0.179 0.083 3.166 0.225 -0.122 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.253 0.132 0.082 36 55 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.21 0.48 1.00 1.08 1.57 11.42 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.09 0.00 0.87 0.96 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.121 0.030 -0.170 0.050 -0.122 0.031 -0.112 -0.014 -0.011 -0.207 PACF -0.121 0.015 -0.167 0.011 -0.116 -0.025 -0.109 -0.085 -0.023 -0.285 95% C.L. 0.210 0.213 0.213 0.219 0.219 0.222 0.222 0.225 0.225 0.225 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.003 -0.020 -0.162 0.015 -0.112 0.003 -0.111 -0.026 -0.037 -0.212 PACF 0.003 -0.020 -0.162 0.016 -0.122 -0.023 -0.118 -0.069 -0.051 -0.287 95% C.L. 0.210 0.210 0.210 0.215 0.215 0.218 0.218 0.220 0.220 0.221 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.027 0.003 -0.020 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1889 1979 91 0.992 0.185 0.243 3.109 0.186 0.255 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.252 0.175 -0.093 -0.018 -0.158 -0.086 -0.186 -0.140 -0.143 -0.236 PACF 0.252 0.119 -0.175 0.024 -0.128 -0.041 -0.126 -0.099 -0.065 -0.250 95% C.L. 0.210 0.223 0.229 0.230 0.230 0.235 0.236 0.243 0.246 0.250 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.078 0.253 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 16.42 MINUTES