RUN: SWIT001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWIT147P.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWIT147P.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 550 1 Rźti b.Bźren BE, Ta.abst LATEWOOD_PERCENT ABAL - 550 2 Switzerland silver fir, European fir 555 4709-726 1889 1979 - 550 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 4 550022 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1974 1974 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 550051 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1973 1973 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 550061 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1974 1974 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 550071 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1960 1960 / 1963 1963 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 550072 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1963 1963 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 21 550111 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1976 1976 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 22 550112 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1971 1971 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 23 550121 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1968 1968 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 24 550122 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1964 1964 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 550011 1917 1975 59 2.640 1.134 1.431 4.909 0.370 0.331 2 550012 1921 1975 55 2.586 1.205 1.382 4.209 0.378 0.391 3 550021 1913 1979 67 3.790 1.369 0.625 3.059 0.255 0.561 4 550022 1920 1979 60 4.125 1.215 0.687 3.818 0.232 0.441 5 550031 1914 1979 66 2.645 1.529 0.683 2.788 0.496 0.432 6 550032 1922 1979 58 2.307 1.290 0.815 2.740 0.392 0.674 7 550041 1924 1972 49 2.948 1.396 0.431 2.196 0.343 0.569 8 550042 1921 1972 52 2.952 1.314 0.337 2.699 0.371 0.558 9 550051 1914 1976 63 2.516 1.309 1.956 6.664 0.421 0.197 10 550052 1914 1972 59 2.286 1.023 0.651 2.393 0.385 0.334 11 550061 1911 1976 66 3.014 1.288 1.139 3.672 0.259 0.729 12 550062 1911 1976 66 3.114 1.324 1.276 4.159 0.317 0.550 13 550071 1906 1964 59 2.472 1.140 0.335 2.550 0.333 0.602 14 550072 1902 1968 67 2.714 1.402 0.382 2.121 0.373 0.569 15 550081 1909 1979 71 2.671 1.088 0.336 2.641 0.319 0.522 16 550082 1911 1979 69 2.628 0.937 -0.170 2.756 0.264 0.561 17 550091 1910 1972 63 1.850 0.737 1.857 7.303 0.318 0.222 18 550092 1909 1970 62 1.753 0.601 0.877 4.272 0.296 0.198 19 550101 1889 1974 86 2.349 1.149 1.080 4.156 0.361 0.489 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 550102 1894 1975 82 2.266 0.840 0.593 3.145 0.372 0.280 21 550111 1897 1977 81 2.891 1.146 0.369 2.353 0.329 0.458 22 550112 1898 1974 77 3.163 1.270 0.405 2.611 0.301 0.474 23 550121 1907 1973 67 3.626 1.044 -0.346 3.854 0.300 0.195 24 550122 1908 1971 64 3.832 0.998 0.905 4.175 0.283 0.025 25 550131 1922 1979 58 3.155 1.016 0.855 4.013 0.268 0.405 26 550132 1909 1976 68 3.725 1.150 -0.145 2.838 0.267 0.479 27 550141 1903 1972 70 2.245 0.941 1.063 4.506 0.298 0.519 28 550142 1913 1973 61 2.686 1.065 0.705 3.183 0.350 0.400 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 28 FROM 1889 TO 1979 91 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 65 2.820 1.140 0.733 3.564 0.330 0.434 STANDARD DEVIATION 8 0.591 0.210 0.549 1.247 0.059 0.163 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 64 2.678 1.148 0.685 3.164 0.324 0.466 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 9 0.724 0.280 0.696 1.497 0.082 0.227 MINIMUM VALUE 49 1.753 0.601 -0.346 2.121 0.232 0.025 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 59 2.410 1.020 0.376 2.670 0.290 0.332 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 68 3.134 1.300 1.072 4.167 0.372 0.559 MAXIMUM VALUE 86 4.125 1.529 1.956 7.303 0.496 0.729 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 378 0.355 0.165 0.008 -0.030 2.911 -0.114 0.832 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.114 SERIES 550061 AND 550071 54 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.832 SERIES 550041 AND 550042 49 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 63.84 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1940. CORR 210. RBAR 0.277 SDEV 0.194 SERR 0.013 EPS 0.912 NSS 27.2 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1889 1979 91 2.577 0.976 0.525 3.252 0.219 0.710 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.750 0.338 0.067 18 73 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.22 0.24 1.00 1.15 1.38 1.98 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.05 0.00 0.86 0.92 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 65. 10. 49. 59. 68. 86. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.703 0.704 0.561 0.637 0.540 0.559 0.522 0.517 0.399 0.375 PACF 0.703 0.415 -0.048 0.295 0.000 0.037 0.125 -0.021 -0.199 -0.031 95% C.L. 0.210 0.296 0.362 0.398 0.441 0.469 0.497 0.521 0.543 0.556 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.648 0.387 0.476 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 550011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.04154237 1.39372873 2 550012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02444805 1.90181816 3 550021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.05249421 2.00489831 4 550022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.04773071 2.66227746 5 550031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.04986244 0.97415388 6 550032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.03455320 1.28774965 7 550041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.06578163 1.30382657 8 550042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.04803253 1.67963803 9 550051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02215870 1.85180593 10 550052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01138457 1.94439507 11 550061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01964824 2.34273005 12 550062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.03424069 1.96687651 13 550071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.05037418 1.01475704 14 550072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.04888073 1.09195888 15 550081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02704024 1.69753718 16 550082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.03271027 1.48296678 17 550091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01791715 1.27633381 18 550092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00967641 1.44777369 19 550101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02006849 1.47562516 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 550102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01446730 1.66558266 21 550111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02129093 2.03209949 22 550112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02696831 2.14997244 23 550121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01962758 2.96337008 24 550122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02342713 3.07206774 25 550131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02824818 2.32150626 26 550132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.03305054 2.58431506 27 550141 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02389957 1.39613664 28 550142 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02148652 2.01965570 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 550011 1917 1975 59 1.006 0.320 0.760 3.119 0.363 -0.109 2 550012 1921 1975 55 1.001 0.410 0.804 3.569 0.370 0.297 3 550021 1913 1979 67 1.004 0.259 1.070 4.811 0.249 0.119 4 550022 1920 1979 60 1.000 0.205 0.256 2.541 0.233 0.010 5 550031 1914 1979 66 1.006 0.551 2.749 14.768 0.487 0.321 6 550032 1922 1979 58 1.001 0.488 0.452 2.286 0.386 0.607 7 550041 1924 1972 49 1.002 0.387 1.077 4.219 0.338 0.185 8 550042 1921 1972 52 1.000 0.412 1.147 4.879 0.366 0.361 9 550051 1914 1976 63 1.001 0.508 2.313 9.404 0.413 0.190 10 550052 1914 1972 59 0.999 0.453 0.996 3.148 0.379 0.319 11 550061 1911 1976 66 1.001 0.425 1.725 6.286 0.263 0.675 12 550062 1911 1976 66 1.005 0.397 2.188 9.372 0.312 0.428 13 550071 1906 1964 59 1.015 0.367 0.356 3.617 0.309 0.513 14 550072 1902 1968 67 1.009 0.475 2.117 11.158 0.362 0.242 15 550081 1909 1979 71 0.992 0.360 0.881 3.556 0.315 0.347 16 550082 1911 1979 69 0.994 0.284 0.569 3.556 0.257 0.289 17 550091 1910 1972 63 1.000 0.321 0.944 4.366 0.313 0.036 18 550092 1909 1970 62 0.999 0.321 0.759 4.300 0.292 0.193 19 550101 1889 1974 86 0.998 0.432 0.822 3.249 0.356 0.366 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 550102 1894 1975 82 0.999 0.333 0.433 3.000 0.367 0.157 21 550111 1897 1977 81 0.999 0.356 0.309 2.842 0.320 0.388 22 550112 1898 1974 77 0.999 0.376 1.135 5.515 0.303 0.440 23 550121 1907 1973 67 1.000 0.257 -0.670 5.116 0.291 0.073 24 550122 1908 1971 64 1.000 0.221 0.411 3.890 0.275 -0.225 25 550131 1922 1979 58 1.002 0.280 0.222 2.878 0.262 0.265 26 550132 1909 1976 68 0.999 0.272 0.094 3.229 0.264 0.303 27 550141 1903 1972 70 1.005 0.356 0.558 3.591 0.294 0.398 28 550142 1913 1973 61 1.002 0.376 0.727 3.820 0.344 0.302 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 65 1.001 0.364 0.900 4.860 0.324 0.267 STANDARD DEVIATION 8 0.004 0.087 0.746 2.901 0.057 0.198 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 65 1.000 0.363 0.782 3.718 0.314 0.299 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 9 0.004 0.116 0.684 1.809 0.081 0.206 MINIMUM VALUE 49 0.992 0.205 -0.670 2.286 0.233 -0.225 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 59 0.999 0.302 0.422 3.189 0.283 0.171 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 68 1.003 0.418 1.106 4.998 0.364 0.377 MAXIMUM VALUE 86 1.015 0.551 2.749 14.768 0.487 0.675 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 550011 -67 39 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 550012 -67 36 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 550021 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 550022 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 550031 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 550032 -67 38 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 550041 -67 32 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 550042 -67 34 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 550051 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 550052 -67 39 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 550061 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 550062 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 550071 -67 39 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 550072 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 550081 -67 47 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 550082 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 550091 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 550092 -67 41 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 550101 -67 57 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 550102 -67 54 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 550111 -67 54 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 550112 -67 51 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 550121 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 550122 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 550131 -67 38 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 550132 -67 45 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 27 550141 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 28 550142 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 550011 1917 1975 59 0.999 0.299 0.521 2.838 0.363 -0.218 2 550012 1921 1975 55 0.997 0.395 0.705 3.415 0.370 0.258 3 550021 1913 1979 67 0.999 0.245 0.778 3.554 0.248 0.069 4 550022 1920 1979 60 0.999 0.196 0.254 2.502 0.232 -0.074 5 550031 1914 1979 66 0.996 0.514 2.336 12.430 0.486 0.276 6 550032 1922 1979 58 0.974 0.395 0.722 3.187 0.385 0.328 7 550041 1924 1972 49 0.992 0.339 0.907 3.702 0.338 0.010 8 550042 1921 1972 52 0.987 0.359 0.947 4.501 0.365 0.187 9 550051 1914 1976 63 0.992 0.459 2.174 9.132 0.414 0.106 10 550052 1914 1972 59 0.994 0.415 1.290 4.876 0.378 0.216 11 550061 1911 1976 66 0.989 0.343 1.226 5.136 0.263 0.538 12 550062 1911 1976 66 0.994 0.321 1.803 8.205 0.311 0.232 13 550071 1906 1964 59 0.991 0.309 0.189 2.618 0.311 0.282 14 550072 1902 1968 67 0.990 0.417 1.671 8.624 0.363 0.133 15 550081 1909 1979 71 0.998 0.294 0.835 3.533 0.316 0.056 16 550082 1911 1979 69 0.995 0.238 0.567 3.384 0.257 0.052 17 550091 1910 1972 63 0.999 0.313 0.865 4.214 0.313 0.013 18 550092 1909 1970 62 0.996 0.288 0.565 4.172 0.291 0.032 19 550101 1889 1974 86 0.996 0.416 0.911 3.597 0.355 0.316 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 550102 1894 1975 82 0.998 0.317 0.264 2.666 0.367 0.084 21 550111 1897 1977 81 0.997 0.341 0.277 2.836 0.320 0.321 22 550112 1898 1974 77 0.996 0.343 0.733 4.538 0.303 0.348 23 550121 1907 1973 67 0.999 0.253 -0.682 5.235 0.290 0.031 24 550122 1908 1971 64 0.999 0.210 0.164 4.004 0.275 -0.316 25 550131 1922 1979 58 0.997 0.241 -0.135 2.528 0.262 0.123 26 550132 1909 1976 68 0.999 0.271 0.232 3.515 0.264 0.285 27 550141 1903 1972 70 0.995 0.329 0.604 3.488 0.292 0.307 28 550142 1913 1973 61 0.998 0.356 0.900 4.913 0.344 0.230 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 65 0.995 0.329 0.772 4.548 0.324 0.151 STANDARD DEVIATION 8 0.005 0.075 0.660 2.329 0.057 0.181 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 65 0.996 0.325 0.728 3.650 0.315 0.160 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 9 0.006 0.097 0.659 1.609 0.081 0.242 MINIMUM VALUE 49 0.974 0.196 -0.682 2.502 0.232 -0.316 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 59 0.993 0.279 0.270 3.285 0.283 0.042 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 68 0.998 0.377 0.929 4.895 0.364 0.284 MAXIMUM VALUE 86 0.999 0.514 2.336 12.430 0.486 0.538 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 378 0.240 0.155 0.008 0.119 3.252 -0.205 0.768 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.205 SERIES 550071 AND 550112 59 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.768 SERIES 550031 AND 550042 52 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 63.84 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1940. CORR 210. RBAR 0.242 SDEV 0.164 SERR 0.011 EPS 0.897 NSS 27.2 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1889 1979 91 0.979 0.212 0.284 3.318 0.228 0.107 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.366 0.199 0.059 27 64 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.27 0.68 1.00 1.08 1.76 7.51 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.08 0.00 0.87 0.95 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.105 -0.052 -0.186 0.017 -0.053 -0.075 0.010 0.086 -0.128 -0.180 PACF 0.105 -0.064 -0.177 0.055 -0.082 -0.095 0.039 0.051 -0.182 -0.142 95% C.L. 0.210 0.212 0.213 0.220 0.220 0.220 0.221 0.221 0.223 0.226 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.127 -0.020 -0.180 0.089 -0.122 -0.160 0.061 0.068 -0.022 -0.245 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.127 2 0.132 -0.036 3 0.125 -0.013 -0.176 4 0.150 -0.011 -0.194 0.140 5 0.174 -0.044 -0.196 0.166 -0.171 6 0.146 -0.018 -0.227 0.158 -0.143 -0.160 7 0.173 0.006 -0.253 0.197 -0.140 -0.185 0.168 8 0.181 -0.003 -0.260 0.206 -0.152 -0.184 0.176 -0.047 9 0.178 0.010 -0.273 0.195 -0.137 -0.203 0.176 -0.034 -0.071 10 0.165 0.004 -0.241 0.159 -0.162 -0.168 0.127 -0.032 -0.039 -0.180 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 655.84 656.36 658.24 657.37 657.57 656.88 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 656.52 655.92 657.72 659.26 658.27 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 0 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 550011 0 0.049 2 550012 0 0.069 3 550021 0 0.005 4 550022 0 0.006 5 550031 0 0.077 6 550032 0 0.125 7 550041 0 0.000 8 550042 0 0.043 9 550051 0 0.011 10 550052 0 0.047 11 550061 0 0.294 12 550062 0 0.056 13 550071 0 0.080 14 550072 0 0.018 15 550081 0 0.003 16 550082 0 0.003 17 550091 0 0.000 18 550092 0 0.001 19 550101 0 0.106 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 550102 0 0.007 21 550111 0 0.104 22 550112 0 0.130 23 550121 0 0.001 24 550122 0 0.103 25 550131 0 0.015 26 550132 0 0.082 27 550141 0 0.095 28 550142 0 0.054 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 0 0.057 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.063 MEDIAN 0 0.048 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.083 MINIMUM VALUE 0 0.000 LOWER HINGE 0 0.005 UPPER HINGE 0 0.088 MAXIMUM VALUE 0 0.294 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 550011 1917 1975 59 1.000 0.299 0.521 2.838 0.363 -0.218 2 550012 1921 1975 55 1.000 0.395 0.705 3.415 0.369 0.258 3 550021 1913 1979 67 1.000 0.245 0.778 3.554 0.248 0.069 4 550022 1920 1979 60 1.000 0.196 0.254 2.502 0.232 -0.074 5 550031 1914 1979 66 1.000 0.514 2.336 12.430 0.483 0.276 6 550032 1922 1979 58 1.000 0.395 0.722 3.187 0.374 0.328 7 550041 1924 1972 49 1.000 0.339 0.907 3.702 0.336 0.010 8 550042 1921 1972 52 1.000 0.359 0.947 4.501 0.360 0.187 9 550051 1914 1976 63 1.000 0.459 2.174 9.132 0.410 0.106 10 550052 1914 1972 59 1.000 0.415 1.290 4.876 0.376 0.216 11 550061 1911 1976 66 1.000 0.343 1.226 5.136 0.259 0.538 12 550062 1911 1976 66 1.000 0.321 1.803 8.205 0.309 0.232 13 550071 1906 1964 59 1.000 0.309 0.189 2.618 0.307 0.282 14 550072 1902 1968 67 1.000 0.417 1.671 8.624 0.359 0.133 15 550081 1909 1979 71 1.000 0.294 0.835 3.533 0.316 0.056 16 550082 1911 1979 69 1.000 0.238 0.567 3.384 0.255 0.052 17 550091 1910 1972 63 1.000 0.313 0.865 4.214 0.313 0.013 18 550092 1909 1970 62 1.000 0.288 0.565 4.172 0.290 0.032 19 550101 1889 1974 86 1.000 0.416 0.911 3.597 0.354 0.316 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 550102 1894 1975 82 1.000 0.317 0.264 2.666 0.366 0.084 21 550111 1897 1977 81 1.000 0.341 0.277 2.836 0.319 0.321 22 550112 1898 1974 77 1.000 0.343 0.733 4.538 0.302 0.348 23 550121 1907 1973 67 1.000 0.253 -0.682 5.235 0.290 0.031 24 550122 1908 1971 64 1.000 0.210 0.164 4.004 0.275 -0.316 25 550131 1922 1979 58 1.000 0.241 -0.135 2.528 0.261 0.123 26 550132 1909 1976 68 1.000 0.271 0.232 3.515 0.264 0.285 27 550141 1903 1972 70 1.000 0.329 0.604 3.488 0.291 0.307 28 550142 1913 1973 61 1.000 0.356 0.900 4.913 0.344 0.230 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 65 1.000 0.329 0.772 4.548 0.322 0.151 STANDARD DEVIATION 8 0.000 0.075 0.660 2.329 0.056 0.181 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 65 1.000 0.325 0.728 3.650 0.314 0.160 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 9 0.000 0.097 0.659 1.609 0.079 0.242 MINIMUM VALUE 49 1.000 0.196 -0.682 2.502 0.232 -0.316 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 59 1.000 0.279 0.270 3.285 0.282 0.042 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 68 1.000 0.377 0.929 4.895 0.361 0.284 MAXIMUM VALUE 86 1.000 0.514 2.336 12.430 0.483 0.538 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 378 0.240 0.155 0.008 0.119 3.252 -0.205 0.768 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.205 SERIES 550071 AND 550112 59 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.768 SERIES 550031 AND 550042 52 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 63.84 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1940. CORR 210. RBAR 0.242 SDEV 0.164 SERR 0.011 EPS 0.897 NSS 27.2 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1889 1979 91 0.983 0.212 0.283 3.321 0.227 0.107 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.369 0.201 0.056 27 64 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.29 0.69 1.00 1.08 1.77 7.38 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.08 0.00 0.87 0.95 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.106 -0.054 -0.186 0.017 -0.051 -0.076 0.010 0.087 -0.125 -0.181 PACF 0.106 -0.066 -0.175 0.055 -0.081 -0.097 0.038 0.052 -0.180 -0.144 95% C.L. 0.210 0.212 0.213 0.220 0.220 0.220 0.221 0.221 0.223 0.226 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1889 1979 91 0.983 0.212 0.283 3.321 0.227 0.107 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.106 -0.054 -0.186 0.017 -0.051 -0.076 0.010 0.087 -0.125 -0.181 PACF 0.106 -0.066 -0.175 0.055 -0.081 -0.097 0.038 0.052 -0.180 -0.144 95% C.L. 0.210 0.212 0.213 0.220 0.220 0.220 0.221 0.221 0.223 0.226 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.28 MINUTES