RUN: SWIT001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWIT148E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWIT148E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 550 1 Rźti b.Bźren BE,Ta.gesun WIDTH_EARLY ABAL - 550 2 Switzerland silver fir, European fir 555 4709-726 1899 1979 - 550 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 7 550191 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1932 1932 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 550161 1918 1979 62 2.250 1.236 0.538 2.264 0.203 0.898 2 550162 1925 1979 55 2.966 1.275 0.201 2.870 0.192 0.790 3 550171 1913 1979 67 2.464 1.500 0.976 3.281 0.256 0.856 4 550172 1916 1979 64 2.147 1.409 1.459 5.026 0.235 0.856 5 550181 1924 1979 56 2.545 1.576 1.858 5.425 0.264 0.775 6 550182 1922 1979 58 2.465 1.219 1.352 4.029 0.236 0.731 7 550191 1916 1979 64 1.747 1.073 2.139 7.640 0.344 0.683 8 550192 1914 1979 66 1.819 1.237 1.907 6.356 0.328 0.768 9 550201 1915 1979 65 2.216 1.358 0.411 2.190 0.269 0.797 10 550202 1913 1979 67 2.768 1.383 0.260 2.303 0.245 0.843 11 550211 1909 1979 71 2.104 0.928 0.623 2.390 0.274 0.708 12 550212 1909 1979 71 2.041 0.754 0.568 2.455 0.257 0.699 13 550221 1913 1979 67 1.862 0.916 0.920 4.067 0.276 0.698 14 550222 1899 1979 81 2.200 0.921 0.952 4.114 0.269 0.667 15 550231 1911 1979 69 2.378 1.576 1.119 3.177 0.237 0.889 16 550232 1905 1979 75 2.195 1.575 0.951 2.840 0.248 0.912 17 550241 1913 1979 67 2.764 0.793 -0.254 2.690 0.203 0.597 18 550242 1912 1979 68 2.048 0.843 0.544 3.039 0.201 0.783 19 550251 1914 1979 66 1.595 0.815 0.456 2.711 0.271 0.696 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 550252 1924 1979 56 1.731 1.231 0.797 2.650 0.308 0.809 21 550261 1913 1979 67 2.996 2.246 0.725 2.814 0.277 0.884 22 550262 1908 1979 72 2.960 2.284 0.702 2.719 0.253 0.912 23 550271 1917 1979 63 2.590 1.588 1.048 3.388 0.256 0.830 24 550272 1925 1979 55 2.957 1.533 0.803 2.688 0.261 0.799 25 550281 1906 1979 74 2.028 0.924 1.155 4.891 0.246 0.728 26 550282 1901 1979 79 1.939 0.871 0.985 4.946 0.280 0.649 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 26 FROM 1899 TO 1979 81 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 66 2.299 1.272 0.892 3.576 0.257 0.779 STANDARD DEVIATION 6 0.420 0.405 0.542 1.388 0.036 0.088 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 67 2.208 1.237 0.862 2.954 0.257 0.786 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 8 0.561 0.611 0.576 1.426 0.037 0.157 MINIMUM VALUE 55 1.595 0.754 -0.254 2.190 0.192 0.597 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 63 2.028 0.921 0.544 2.688 0.237 0.699 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 71 2.590 1.533 1.119 4.114 0.274 0.856 MAXIMUM VALUE 81 2.996 2.284 2.139 7.640 0.344 0.912 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.435 0.325 0.018 -0.602 2.212 -0.394 0.949 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.394 SERIES 550172 AND 550271 63 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.949 SERIES 550231 AND 550232 69 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 77.10 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1950. CORR 325. RBAR 0.413 SDEV 0.357 SERR 0.020 EPS 0.948 NSS 26.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1899 1979 81 2.166 0.830 0.237 2.140 0.185 0.809 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.661 0.431 0.080 47 34 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.34 0.55 1.00 1.17 1.72 5.11 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.12 0.00 0.87 0.99 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 67. 8. 55. 63. 71. 81. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.799 0.753 0.672 0.652 0.551 0.510 0.493 0.466 0.416 0.360 PACF 0.799 0.317 0.023 0.130 -0.138 0.001 0.133 0.013 -0.043 -0.087 95% C.L. 0.222 0.335 0.410 0.462 0.505 0.534 0.557 0.578 0.597 0.611 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.712 0.519 0.365 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 550161 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.05544635 3.99672127 2 550162 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.06645238 4.82648468 3 550171 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.05500838 4.33401632 4 550172 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.05732876 4.01037216 5 550181 1 6.41920376 0.10411073 0.00000000 1.50355124 6 550182 1 4.62759542 0.13063662 0.00000000 1.89340103 7 550191 1 6.99220562 0.36591655 0.00000000 1.50783598 8 550192 1 6.33331585 0.20656922 0.00000000 1.40042973 9 550201 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.06172509 4.25308180 10 550202 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.05493774 4.63624144 11 550211 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.03431556 3.33930373 12 550212 1 2.58032894 0.01827735 0.00000000 0.60908931 13 550221 1 3.33938432 0.14965200 0.00000000 1.55320799 14 550222 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01519106 2.82320356 15 550231 1 5.80620670 0.06102545 0.00000000 1.06099141 16 550232 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 550241 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.02352383 3.56413841 18 550242 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.03644501 3.30500007 19 550251 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.02884563 2.56163168 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 550252 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.05829494 3.39265585 21 550261 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.06048487 5.05290365 22 550262 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.05779102 5.06978893 23 550271 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.03011905 1.62571430 24 550272 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01338961 2.58254552 25 550281 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00560252 2.23833776 26 550282 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00347980 1.80004871 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 550161 1918 1979 62 0.993 0.277 0.356 2.879 0.198 0.617 2 550162 1925 1979 55 0.998 0.277 0.370 3.997 0.189 0.650 3 550171 1913 1979 67 1.003 0.388 0.727 2.842 0.249 0.564 4 550172 1916 1979 64 1.061 0.528 2.074 7.342 0.235 0.641 5 550181 1924 1979 56 1.000 0.255 0.820 4.148 0.263 0.151 6 550182 1922 1979 58 1.000 0.355 1.967 9.702 0.239 0.468 7 550191 1916 1979 64 1.000 0.452 1.518 5.410 0.330 0.567 8 550192 1914 1979 66 1.000 0.454 0.759 3.480 0.317 0.620 9 550201 1915 1979 65 1.024 0.357 0.451 3.318 0.271 0.471 10 550202 1913 1979 67 0.993 0.326 -0.098 2.255 0.241 0.599 11 550211 1909 1979 71 1.009 0.297 0.580 4.011 0.270 0.328 12 550212 1909 1979 71 1.000 0.259 0.203 3.088 0.254 0.333 13 550221 1913 1979 67 1.000 0.416 0.856 4.040 0.269 0.660 14 550222 1899 1979 81 1.000 0.385 0.772 3.297 0.265 0.614 15 550231 1911 1979 69 1.003 0.371 0.862 3.943 0.233 0.677 16 550232 1905 1979 75 0.998 0.327 1.034 4.505 0.245 0.522 17 550241 1913 1979 67 0.996 0.238 0.009 2.649 0.199 0.420 18 550242 1912 1979 68 1.004 0.235 0.652 3.059 0.197 0.379 19 550251 1914 1979 66 0.980 0.362 0.605 2.911 0.266 0.512 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 550252 1924 1979 56 1.070 0.775 3.554 17.312 0.325 0.554 21 550261 1913 1979 67 0.945 0.629 1.247 4.679 0.275 0.839 22 550262 1908 1979 72 0.929 0.643 0.918 2.649 0.249 0.870 23 550271 1917 1979 63 0.994 0.516 0.661 2.956 0.252 0.766 24 550272 1925 1979 55 1.000 0.511 0.804 2.847 0.257 0.775 25 550281 1906 1979 74 0.999 0.448 1.052 4.477 0.243 0.693 26 550282 1901 1979 79 1.000 0.450 1.038 5.201 0.277 0.646 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 66 1.000 0.405 0.915 4.500 0.254 0.575 STANDARD DEVIATION 6 0.027 0.135 0.737 3.064 0.036 0.165 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 67 1.000 0.378 0.788 3.711 0.253 0.607 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 8 0.007 0.157 0.458 1.595 0.031 0.189 MINIMUM VALUE 55 0.929 0.235 -0.098 2.255 0.189 0.151 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 63 0.996 0.297 0.580 2.911 0.239 0.471 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 71 1.003 0.454 1.038 4.505 0.270 0.660 MAXIMUM VALUE 81 1.070 0.775 3.554 17.312 0.330 0.870 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 550161 -67 41 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 550162 -67 36 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 550171 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 550172 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 550181 -67 37 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 550182 -67 38 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 550191 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 550192 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 550201 -67 43 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 550202 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 550211 -67 47 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 550212 -67 47 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 550221 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 550222 -67 54 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 550231 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 550232 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 550241 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 550242 -67 45 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 550251 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 550252 -67 37 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 550261 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 550262 -67 48 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 550271 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 550272 -67 36 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 550281 -67 49 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 550282 -67 52 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 550161 1918 1979 62 0.994 0.237 0.104 2.882 0.199 0.464 2 550162 1925 1979 55 0.994 0.231 -0.200 3.204 0.191 0.493 3 550171 1913 1979 67 0.986 0.311 0.797 3.570 0.250 0.405 4 550172 1916 1979 64 0.986 0.354 1.355 4.410 0.231 0.555 5 550181 1924 1979 56 0.998 0.224 0.664 3.515 0.262 -0.042 6 550182 1922 1979 58 0.992 0.304 2.026 10.376 0.237 0.355 7 550191 1916 1979 64 0.994 0.392 0.888 4.173 0.330 0.481 8 550192 1914 1979 66 0.993 0.369 0.131 3.058 0.314 0.489 9 550201 1915 1979 65 0.994 0.304 0.022 2.495 0.270 0.342 10 550202 1913 1979 67 0.990 0.283 -0.011 2.730 0.239 0.451 11 550211 1909 1979 71 0.995 0.258 0.355 3.104 0.271 0.129 12 550212 1909 1979 71 0.996 0.239 0.035 3.018 0.254 0.230 13 550221 1913 1979 67 0.983 0.332 0.591 3.443 0.267 0.534 14 550222 1899 1979 81 0.990 0.338 0.512 3.193 0.264 0.526 15 550231 1911 1979 69 0.991 0.318 0.450 3.273 0.233 0.594 16 550232 1905 1979 75 0.998 0.312 0.817 4.079 0.245 0.485 17 550241 1913 1979 67 0.997 0.169 0.222 2.593 0.197 0.009 18 550242 1912 1979 68 0.999 0.221 0.346 2.579 0.197 0.343 19 550251 1914 1979 66 0.997 0.311 0.608 3.204 0.266 0.354 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 550252 1924 1979 56 0.980 0.466 0.698 3.964 0.313 0.619 21 550261 1913 1979 67 0.991 0.474 0.934 4.168 0.277 0.682 22 550262 1908 1979 72 1.012 0.437 0.884 4.118 0.255 0.648 23 550271 1917 1979 63 0.955 0.390 0.469 3.137 0.237 0.675 24 550272 1925 1979 55 0.965 0.376 0.847 3.610 0.249 0.632 25 550281 1906 1979 74 0.982 0.299 0.860 3.727 0.242 0.357 26 550282 1901 1979 79 0.995 0.362 1.167 4.927 0.275 0.409 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 66 0.990 0.320 0.599 3.714 0.253 0.431 STANDARD DEVIATION 6 0.011 0.077 0.485 1.491 0.035 0.189 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 67 0.993 0.311 0.599 3.358 0.252 0.472 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 8 0.010 0.111 0.638 1.022 0.034 0.202 MINIMUM VALUE 55 0.955 0.169 -0.200 2.495 0.191 -0.042 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 63 0.986 0.258 0.222 3.058 0.237 0.354 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 71 0.996 0.369 0.860 4.079 0.270 0.555 MAXIMUM VALUE 81 1.012 0.474 2.026 10.376 0.330 0.682 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.284 0.202 0.011 -0.218 2.969 -0.421 0.782 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.421 SERIES 550192 AND 550231 66 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.782 SERIES 550221 AND 550222 67 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 77.10 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1950. CORR 325. RBAR 0.302 SDEV 0.202 SERR 0.011 EPS 0.918 NSS 26.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1899 1979 81 0.964 0.194 0.226 3.157 0.213 0.109 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.396 0.298 -0.020 28 53 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.22 0.57 1.01 1.06 1.62 8.70 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.07 0.00 0.88 0.95 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.108 0.117 -0.188 -0.015 -0.142 -0.077 -0.075 -0.033 0.009 -0.041 PACF 0.108 0.106 -0.216 0.017 -0.100 -0.097 -0.029 -0.055 -0.002 -0.072 95% C.L. 0.222 0.225 0.228 0.235 0.235 0.240 0.241 0.242 0.242 0.242 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.213 0.144 -0.174 -0.047 -0.242 -0.154 -0.157 -0.009 0.062 -0.026 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.213 2 0.191 0.103 3 0.215 0.148 -0.237 4 0.221 0.145 -0.242 0.022 5 0.225 0.097 -0.213 0.066 -0.198 6 0.202 0.105 -0.238 0.077 -0.172 -0.116 7 0.195 0.095 -0.233 0.063 -0.165 -0.104 -0.059 8 0.194 0.092 -0.237 0.064 -0.171 -0.102 -0.054 -0.022 9 0.195 0.095 -0.231 0.073 -0.174 -0.089 -0.059 -0.033 0.053 10 0.203 0.090 -0.240 0.060 -0.200 -0.078 -0.094 -0.018 0.082 -0.150 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 582.98 581.22 582.36 579.68 581.64 580.42 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 581.33 583.05 585.01 586.78 586.95 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.213 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 4.53 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 104.75 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.213 0.045 0.010 0.002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 550161 1 0.231 0.465 2 550162 1 0.260 0.510 3 550171 1 0.193 0.410 4 550172 1 0.329 0.569 5 550181 1 0.005 -0.042 6 550182 1 0.132 0.356 7 550191 1 0.265 0.483 8 550192 1 0.242 0.490 9 550201 1 0.149 0.353 10 550202 1 0.234 0.477 11 550211 1 0.031 0.134 12 550212 1 0.055 0.234 13 550221 1 0.332 0.535 14 550222 1 0.307 0.535 15 550231 1 0.369 0.601 16 550232 1 0.246 0.495 17 550241 1 0.000 0.009 18 550242 1 0.161 0.354 19 550251 1 0.132 0.356 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 550252 1 0.483 0.676 21 550261 1 0.527 0.717 22 550262 1 0.512 0.711 23 550271 1 0.499 0.693 24 550272 1 0.409 0.639 25 550281 1 0.131 0.362 26 550282 1 0.195 0.442 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.247 0.445 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.154 0.197 MEDIAN 1 0.238 0.480 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.199 0.214 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.000 -0.042 LOWER HINGE 1 0.132 0.356 UPPER HINGE 1 0.332 0.569 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.527 0.717 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 550161 1918 1979 62 1.000 0.210 0.395 2.942 0.243 -0.061 2 550162 1925 1979 55 1.000 0.199 -0.277 2.896 0.236 0.022 3 550171 1913 1979 67 1.000 0.283 0.953 4.011 0.293 -0.072 4 550172 1916 1979 64 1.000 0.290 1.185 4.297 0.296 -0.041 5 550181 1924 1979 56 1.000 0.224 0.643 3.534 0.256 -0.002 6 550182 1922 1979 58 1.000 0.284 2.322 11.829 0.274 -0.029 7 550191 1916 1979 64 1.000 0.343 0.478 3.120 0.378 0.100 8 550192 1914 1979 66 1.000 0.322 0.378 3.440 0.363 0.026 9 550201 1915 1979 65 1.000 0.284 0.124 2.953 0.322 -0.057 10 550202 1913 1979 67 1.000 0.247 -0.198 3.212 0.288 -0.036 11 550211 1909 1979 71 1.000 0.255 0.399 3.041 0.288 -0.017 12 550212 1909 1979 71 1.000 0.232 -0.029 2.657 0.269 -0.003 13 550221 1913 1979 67 1.000 0.280 0.522 3.323 0.330 -0.135 14 550222 1899 1979 81 1.000 0.285 0.635 3.872 0.328 -0.094 15 550231 1911 1979 69 1.000 0.254 0.307 3.164 0.270 0.071 16 550232 1905 1979 75 1.000 0.270 0.603 4.002 0.305 0.014 17 550241 1913 1979 67 1.000 0.169 0.215 2.593 0.197 0.000 18 550242 1912 1979 68 1.000 0.207 0.197 2.467 0.235 -0.058 19 550251 1914 1979 66 1.000 0.291 0.953 3.465 0.304 0.030 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 550252 1924 1979 56 1.000 0.342 0.749 3.704 0.348 0.187 21 550261 1913 1979 67 1.000 0.325 0.936 4.306 0.351 0.104 22 550262 1908 1979 72 1.000 0.306 0.493 4.388 0.347 -0.025 23 550271 1917 1979 63 1.000 0.281 0.443 3.485 0.323 -0.110 24 550272 1925 1979 55 1.000 0.289 0.693 5.530 0.318 -0.021 25 550281 1906 1979 74 1.000 0.279 1.214 4.836 0.273 0.002 26 550282 1901 1979 79 1.000 0.320 1.282 4.570 0.313 -0.033 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 66 1.000 0.272 0.601 3.909 0.298 -0.009 STANDARD DEVIATION 6 0.000 0.045 0.535 1.778 0.044 0.070 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 67 1.000 0.282 0.507 3.475 0.300 -0.019 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 8 0.000 0.044 0.629 1.256 0.058 0.079 MINIMUM VALUE 55 1.000 0.169 -0.277 2.467 0.197 -0.135 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 63 1.000 0.247 0.307 3.041 0.270 -0.057 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 71 1.000 0.291 0.936 4.297 0.328 0.022 MAXIMUM VALUE 81 1.000 0.343 2.322 11.829 0.378 0.187 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.385 0.141 0.008 0.059 3.155 -0.067 0.779 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.067 SERIES 550192 AND 550231 66 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.779 SERIES 550231 AND 550232 69 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 77.10 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1950. CORR 325. RBAR 0.417 SDEV 0.139 SERR 0.008 EPS 0.949 NSS 26.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1899 1979 81 0.977 0.183 0.239 3.543 0.238 -0.276 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.481 0.250 -0.043 24 57 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.21 0.46 1.01 1.09 1.54 23.26 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.09 0.00 0.87 0.96 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.273 0.132 -0.216 0.134 -0.155 0.011 -0.057 -0.021 0.057 -0.056 PACF -0.273 0.062 -0.179 0.034 -0.099 -0.102 -0.045 -0.102 0.033 -0.063 95% C.L. 0.222 0.238 0.242 0.251 0.255 0.259 0.259 0.260 0.260 0.261 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.079 -0.275 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.018 0.010 -0.173 0.045 -0.138 -0.052 -0.071 -0.026 0.045 -0.040 PACF 0.018 0.010 -0.173 0.053 -0.141 -0.079 -0.053 -0.080 0.038 -0.085 95% C.L. 0.222 0.222 0.222 0.229 0.229 0.233 0.234 0.235 0.235 0.236 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.000 0.018 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1899 1979 81 0.976 0.181 0.425 3.234 0.178 0.226 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.223 0.017 -0.157 -0.018 -0.146 -0.092 -0.088 -0.034 0.032 -0.022 PACF 0.223 -0.035 -0.162 0.058 -0.164 -0.054 -0.048 -0.060 0.042 -0.086 95% C.L. 0.222 0.233 0.233 0.238 0.238 0.243 0.244 0.246 0.246 0.246 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.052 0.227 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 7.16 MINUTES