RUN: SWIT001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWIT148P.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWIT148P.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 550 1 Rźti b.Bźren BE,Ta.gesun LATEWOOD_PERCENT ABAL - 550 2 Switzerland silver fir, European fir 555 4709-726 1899 1979 - 550 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 7 550191 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1932 1932 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 550161 1918 1979 62 2.755 0.873 0.938 3.785 0.247 0.485 2 550162 1925 1979 55 2.845 0.667 1.181 5.435 0.249 -0.018 3 550171 1913 1979 67 3.467 1.178 0.773 3.135 0.221 0.534 4 550172 1916 1979 64 3.178 1.030 0.446 2.735 0.232 0.525 5 550181 1924 1979 56 2.984 1.217 0.929 4.182 0.320 0.470 6 550182 1922 1979 58 3.145 1.276 0.539 3.275 0.336 0.441 7 550191 1916 1979 64 3.381 1.263 0.038 2.620 0.321 0.445 8 550192 1914 1979 66 3.006 1.262 0.068 2.795 0.313 0.587 9 550201 1915 1979 65 2.869 1.256 0.688 2.854 0.282 0.664 10 550202 1913 1979 67 2.448 1.040 0.825 3.268 0.304 0.613 11 550211 1909 1979 71 2.953 1.037 -0.126 2.474 0.380 0.190 12 550212 1909 1979 71 2.906 1.030 0.279 3.301 0.348 0.295 13 550221 1913 1979 67 3.251 0.859 0.596 3.080 0.332 -0.186 14 550222 1899 1979 81 2.676 0.803 0.121 2.889 0.311 0.188 15 550231 1911 1979 69 2.340 0.812 0.303 2.522 0.294 0.479 16 550232 1905 1979 75 2.505 0.944 0.380 2.748 0.233 0.706 17 550241 1913 1979 67 2.659 0.740 0.563 4.123 0.308 0.143 18 550242 1912 1979 68 2.786 0.752 0.401 2.991 0.238 0.412 19 550251 1914 1979 66 4.745 1.059 0.424 3.139 0.216 0.315 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 550252 1924 1979 56 5.010 1.305 0.217 3.204 0.215 0.524 21 550261 1913 1979 67 2.606 1.335 1.616 5.386 0.381 0.348 22 550262 1908 1979 72 2.054 1.165 1.573 6.183 0.426 0.425 23 550271 1917 1979 63 2.994 1.138 0.092 2.580 0.299 0.573 24 550272 1925 1979 55 3.227 1.207 0.664 3.802 0.283 0.565 25 550281 1906 1979 74 3.261 1.133 1.067 4.612 0.307 0.464 26 550282 1901 1979 79 3.216 1.016 1.148 4.593 0.310 0.258 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 26 FROM 1899 TO 1979 81 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 66 3.049 1.054 0.605 3.527 0.296 0.402 STANDARD DEVIATION 6 0.635 0.196 0.458 0.999 0.054 0.209 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 67 2.969 1.050 0.551 3.171 0.305 0.455 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 8 0.551 0.344 0.650 1.327 0.074 0.239 MINIMUM VALUE 55 2.054 0.667 -0.126 2.474 0.215 -0.186 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 63 2.676 0.873 0.279 2.795 0.247 0.295 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 71 3.227 1.217 0.929 4.123 0.321 0.534 MAXIMUM VALUE 81 5.010 1.335 1.616 6.183 0.426 0.706 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.365 0.221 0.012 -0.360 2.330 -0.197 0.804 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.197 SERIES 550192 AND 550262 66 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.804 SERIES 550211 AND 550212 71 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 77.10 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1950. CORR 325. RBAR 0.313 SDEV 0.220 SERR 0.012 EPS 0.922 NSS 26.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1899 1979 81 2.883 0.697 0.347 3.503 0.200 0.445 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.341 0.174 0.460 29 52 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.21 0.23 1.00 1.09 1.31 14.61 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.09 0.00 0.88 0.97 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 67. 8. 55. 63. 71. 81. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.439 0.564 0.423 0.508 0.357 0.275 0.249 0.278 0.240 0.198 PACF 0.439 0.460 0.136 0.213 -0.014 -0.182 -0.056 0.096 0.086 0.033 95% C.L. 0.222 0.262 0.316 0.343 0.378 0.394 0.404 0.411 0.420 0.427 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.386 0.240 0.466 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 550161 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.03113495 1.77441037 2 550162 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01985859 2.28886867 3 550171 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.03888858 2.14450479 4 550172 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.03664400 1.98672616 5 550181 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.04103452 1.81498051 6 550182 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.03816020 2.01892924 7 550191 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.04319802 1.94941628 8 550192 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.04095982 1.63390672 9 550201 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.05239117 1.14016831 10 550202 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.03768896 1.16648579 11 550211 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02298256 2.12572646 12 550212 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02502213 2.00568199 13 550221 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01185051 2.84812760 14 550222 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01372832 2.11294127 15 550231 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01851991 1.69165814 16 550232 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.03053200 1.34485042 17 550241 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01240243 2.23742199 18 550242 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01871913 2.13992548 19 550251 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02658804 3.85384607 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 550252 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.05098325 3.55679870 21 550261 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02577141 1.73004067 22 550262 1 0.49814692 0.06887368 0.00000000 1.95795274 23 550271 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00157642 2.94336414 24 550272 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01626479 3.68268681 25 550281 1 0.48880583 0.04390431 0.00000000 3.12002873 26 550282 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00099026 3.17608571 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 550161 1918 1979 62 1.001 0.232 0.494 2.711 0.244 0.128 2 550162 1925 1979 55 1.000 0.195 0.228 3.697 0.245 -0.287 3 550171 1913 1979 67 1.000 0.245 0.254 2.845 0.217 0.313 4 550172 1916 1979 64 1.003 0.260 0.828 4.797 0.229 0.322 5 550181 1924 1979 56 0.999 0.326 -0.083 2.770 0.314 0.289 6 550182 1922 1979 58 0.998 0.346 0.149 2.421 0.331 0.317 7 550191 1916 1979 64 0.995 0.314 0.530 3.331 0.315 0.206 8 550192 1914 1979 66 0.990 0.340 0.127 2.534 0.306 0.328 9 550201 1915 1979 65 1.010 0.288 0.596 3.581 0.276 0.165 10 550202 1913 1979 67 1.002 0.304 1.031 4.806 0.299 0.117 11 550211 1909 1979 71 0.997 0.318 -0.229 2.350 0.375 0.066 12 550212 1909 1979 71 0.997 0.316 0.450 3.939 0.344 0.086 13 550221 1913 1979 67 1.000 0.253 0.501 2.854 0.327 -0.273 14 550222 1899 1979 81 1.000 0.288 0.473 3.408 0.307 0.083 15 550231 1911 1979 69 0.997 0.307 0.438 2.710 0.289 0.352 16 550232 1905 1979 75 1.001 0.294 1.370 8.134 0.230 0.274 17 550241 1913 1979 67 1.000 0.259 0.318 3.980 0.303 0.004 18 550242 1912 1979 68 1.000 0.233 0.272 3.198 0.235 0.142 19 550251 1914 1979 66 1.000 0.198 0.527 3.770 0.212 0.127 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 550252 1924 1979 56 1.000 0.207 0.214 2.417 0.211 0.278 21 550261 1913 1979 67 1.008 0.500 1.874 6.775 0.375 0.348 22 550262 1908 1979 72 1.000 0.559 1.392 5.222 0.420 0.410 23 550271 1917 1979 63 1.000 0.378 0.058 2.578 0.294 0.561 24 550272 1925 1979 55 1.000 0.364 0.605 3.673 0.278 0.529 25 550281 1906 1979 74 1.000 0.351 1.257 5.003 0.302 0.458 26 550282 1901 1979 79 1.000 0.315 1.126 4.557 0.306 0.257 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 66 1.000 0.307 0.569 3.772 0.292 0.215 STANDARD DEVIATION 6 0.004 0.083 0.503 1.397 0.054 0.203 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 67 1.000 0.306 0.483 3.494 0.301 0.265 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 8 0.001 0.087 0.600 1.846 0.071 0.211 MINIMUM VALUE 55 0.990 0.195 -0.229 2.350 0.211 -0.287 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 63 0.999 0.253 0.228 2.711 0.244 0.117 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 71 1.000 0.340 0.828 4.557 0.315 0.328 MAXIMUM VALUE 81 1.010 0.559 1.874 8.134 0.420 0.561 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 550161 -67 41 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 550162 -67 36 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 550171 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 550172 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 550181 -67 37 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 550182 -67 38 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 550191 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 550192 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 550201 -67 43 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 550202 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 550211 -67 47 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 550212 -67 47 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 550221 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 550222 -67 54 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 550231 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 550232 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 550241 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 550242 -67 45 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 550251 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 550252 -67 37 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 550261 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 550262 -67 48 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 550271 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 550272 -67 36 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 550281 -67 49 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 550282 -67 52 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 550161 1918 1979 62 0.998 0.222 0.508 2.693 0.243 0.040 2 550162 1925 1979 55 0.999 0.190 0.128 3.526 0.245 -0.337 3 550171 1913 1979 67 0.998 0.234 0.210 2.828 0.218 0.248 4 550172 1916 1979 64 0.997 0.227 -0.111 2.681 0.229 0.210 5 550181 1924 1979 56 0.996 0.316 0.139 2.821 0.315 0.234 6 550182 1922 1979 58 0.992 0.300 0.314 2.741 0.331 0.023 7 550191 1916 1979 64 0.996 0.285 0.565 3.222 0.314 0.099 8 550192 1914 1979 66 0.995 0.286 0.257 2.609 0.305 0.086 9 550201 1915 1979 65 0.999 0.269 0.599 3.781 0.275 0.046 10 550202 1913 1979 67 0.997 0.286 0.726 3.395 0.299 0.072 11 550211 1909 1979 71 0.999 0.319 0.639 4.187 0.375 -0.177 12 550212 1909 1979 71 0.999 0.309 0.808 4.714 0.343 -0.079 13 550221 1913 1979 67 1.000 0.250 0.465 2.895 0.327 -0.287 14 550222 1899 1979 81 0.998 0.274 0.274 3.063 0.307 0.009 15 550231 1911 1979 69 0.998 0.266 0.393 3.190 0.290 0.124 16 550232 1905 1979 75 0.999 0.281 0.936 6.047 0.230 0.277 17 550241 1913 1979 67 0.999 0.249 0.187 3.875 0.303 -0.070 18 550242 1912 1979 68 0.998 0.222 0.168 3.210 0.234 0.035 19 550251 1914 1979 66 0.999 0.192 0.450 3.386 0.213 0.069 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 550252 1924 1979 56 0.997 0.177 0.093 2.312 0.210 0.014 21 550261 1913 1979 67 0.996 0.400 1.019 3.499 0.377 0.150 22 550262 1908 1979 72 0.977 0.484 1.260 5.204 0.417 0.283 23 550271 1917 1979 63 0.990 0.342 0.103 3.087 0.294 0.476 24 550272 1925 1979 55 0.987 0.292 0.267 2.782 0.273 0.332 25 550281 1906 1979 74 0.993 0.283 0.765 3.771 0.302 0.144 26 550282 1901 1979 79 0.996 0.282 0.915 3.572 0.305 0.075 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 66 0.996 0.278 0.464 3.427 0.291 0.081 STANDARD DEVIATION 6 0.005 0.065 0.340 0.849 0.054 0.181 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 67 0.998 0.282 0.421 3.216 0.300 0.073 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 8 0.003 0.066 0.539 0.951 0.071 0.196 MINIMUM VALUE 55 0.977 0.177 -0.111 2.312 0.210 -0.337 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 63 0.996 0.234 0.187 2.821 0.243 0.014 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 71 0.999 0.300 0.726 3.771 0.315 0.210 MAXIMUM VALUE 81 1.000 0.484 1.260 6.047 0.417 0.476 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.294 0.141 0.008 0.212 3.213 -0.080 0.761 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.080 SERIES 550192 AND 550262 66 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.761 SERIES 550211 AND 550212 71 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 77.10 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1950. CORR 325. RBAR 0.284 SDEV 0.155 SERR 0.009 EPS 0.912 NSS 26.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1899 1979 81 0.998 0.174 0.361 2.890 0.198 -0.020 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.321 0.262 -0.014 30 51 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.21 0.51 1.02 1.10 1.60 5.54 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.07 0.00 0.87 0.94 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.020 0.064 -0.046 0.141 -0.001 -0.189 -0.097 -0.042 -0.046 -0.150 PACF -0.020 0.064 -0.044 0.136 0.008 -0.213 -0.096 -0.040 -0.057 -0.107 95% C.L. 0.222 0.222 0.223 0.224 0.228 0.228 0.236 0.238 0.238 0.238 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.050 0.020 -0.169 0.131 -0.032 -0.174 -0.090 -0.018 -0.050 -0.074 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 -0.050 2 -0.049 0.018 3 -0.046 0.009 -0.168 4 -0.026 0.008 -0.162 0.118 5 -0.024 0.005 -0.162 0.118 -0.019 6 -0.028 0.031 -0.197 0.119 -0.024 -0.216 7 -0.042 0.029 -0.190 0.106 -0.022 -0.218 -0.064 8 -0.045 0.020 -0.191 0.111 -0.030 -0.217 -0.066 -0.043 9 -0.050 0.012 -0.218 0.107 -0.016 -0.241 -0.064 -0.048 -0.124 10 -0.059 0.008 -0.222 0.090 -0.017 -0.233 -0.079 -0.048 -0.128 -0.070 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 559.57 561.36 563.34 563.02 563.88 565.85 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 563.97 565.64 567.49 568.23 569.83 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 0 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 550161 0 0.002 2 550162 0 0.118 3 550171 0 0.062 4 550172 0 0.047 5 550181 0 0.059 6 550182 0 0.001 7 550191 0 0.010 8 550192 0 0.008 9 550201 0 0.002 10 550202 0 0.006 11 550211 0 0.038 12 550212 0 0.007 13 550221 0 0.083 14 550222 0 0.000 15 550231 0 0.015 16 550232 0 0.097 17 550241 0 0.005 18 550242 0 0.001 19 550251 0 0.005 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 550252 0 0.000 21 550261 0 0.023 22 550262 0 0.081 23 550271 0 0.231 24 550272 0 0.111 25 550281 0 0.021 26 550282 0 0.006 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 0 0.040 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.054 MEDIAN 0 0.013 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.057 MINIMUM VALUE 0 0.000 LOWER HINGE 0 0.005 UPPER HINGE 0 0.062 MAXIMUM VALUE 0 0.231 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 550161 1918 1979 62 1.000 0.222 0.508 2.693 0.243 0.040 2 550162 1925 1979 55 1.000 0.190 0.128 3.526 0.245 -0.337 3 550171 1913 1979 67 1.000 0.234 0.210 2.828 0.217 0.248 4 550172 1916 1979 64 1.000 0.227 -0.111 2.681 0.228 0.210 5 550181 1924 1979 56 1.000 0.316 0.139 2.821 0.313 0.234 6 550182 1922 1979 58 1.000 0.300 0.314 2.741 0.328 0.023 7 550191 1916 1979 64 1.000 0.285 0.565 3.222 0.313 0.099 8 550192 1914 1979 66 1.000 0.286 0.257 2.609 0.304 0.086 9 550201 1915 1979 65 1.000 0.269 0.599 3.781 0.275 0.046 10 550202 1913 1979 67 1.000 0.286 0.726 3.395 0.298 0.072 11 550211 1909 1979 71 1.000 0.319 0.639 4.187 0.375 -0.177 12 550212 1909 1979 71 1.000 0.309 0.808 4.714 0.343 -0.079 13 550221 1913 1979 67 1.000 0.250 0.465 2.895 0.327 -0.287 14 550222 1899 1979 81 1.000 0.274 0.274 3.063 0.306 0.009 15 550231 1911 1979 69 1.000 0.266 0.393 3.190 0.289 0.124 16 550232 1905 1979 75 1.000 0.281 0.936 6.047 0.230 0.277 17 550241 1913 1979 67 1.000 0.249 0.187 3.875 0.302 -0.070 18 550242 1912 1979 68 1.000 0.222 0.168 3.210 0.234 0.035 19 550251 1914 1979 66 1.000 0.192 0.450 3.386 0.213 0.069 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 550252 1924 1979 56 1.000 0.177 0.093 2.312 0.209 0.014 21 550261 1913 1979 67 1.000 0.400 1.019 3.499 0.376 0.150 22 550262 1908 1979 72 1.000 0.484 1.260 5.204 0.406 0.283 23 550271 1917 1979 63 1.000 0.342 0.103 3.087 0.291 0.476 24 550272 1925 1979 55 1.000 0.292 0.267 2.782 0.269 0.332 25 550281 1906 1979 74 1.000 0.283 0.765 3.771 0.299 0.144 26 550282 1901 1979 79 1.000 0.282 0.915 3.572 0.304 0.075 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 66 1.000 0.278 0.464 3.427 0.290 0.081 STANDARD DEVIATION 6 0.000 0.065 0.340 0.849 0.052 0.181 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 67 1.000 0.282 0.421 3.216 0.299 0.073 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 8 0.000 0.066 0.539 0.951 0.070 0.196 MINIMUM VALUE 55 1.000 0.177 -0.111 2.312 0.209 -0.337 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 63 1.000 0.234 0.187 2.821 0.243 0.014 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 71 1.000 0.300 0.726 3.771 0.313 0.210 MAXIMUM VALUE 81 1.000 0.484 1.260 6.047 0.406 0.476 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.294 0.141 0.008 0.212 3.213 -0.080 0.761 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.080 SERIES 550192 AND 550262 66 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.761 SERIES 550211 AND 550212 71 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 77.10 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1950. CORR 325. RBAR 0.284 SDEV 0.155 SERR 0.009 EPS 0.912 NSS 26.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1899 1979 81 1.002 0.174 0.363 2.892 0.197 -0.020 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.327 0.266 -0.020 30 51 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.21 0.52 1.03 1.10 1.62 5.59 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.08 0.00 0.87 0.94 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.019 0.061 -0.046 0.143 -0.001 -0.190 -0.097 -0.039 -0.045 -0.151 PACF -0.019 0.061 -0.044 0.138 0.008 -0.213 -0.096 -0.038 -0.056 -0.107 95% C.L. 0.222 0.222 0.223 0.224 0.228 0.228 0.236 0.238 0.238 0.238 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1899 1979 81 1.002 0.174 0.363 2.892 0.197 -0.020 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.019 0.061 -0.046 0.143 -0.001 -0.190 -0.097 -0.039 -0.045 -0.151 PACF -0.019 0.061 -0.044 0.138 0.008 -0.213 -0.096 -0.038 -0.056 -0.107 95% C.L. 0.222 0.222 0.223 0.224 0.228 0.228 0.236 0.238 0.238 0.238 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.36 MINUTES