RUN: SWIT001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWIT149E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWIT149E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 550 1 Rźti b.Bźren BE,Vergl.Pr WIDTH_EARLY PCAB - 550 2 Switzerland Norway spruce 555 4709-726 1917 1979 - 550 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES --- NO GAPS IN DATA FOUND --- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 550311 1933 1979 47 3.306 0.920 0.333 3.668 0.221 0.548 2 550312 1939 1979 41 3.677 1.511 -0.145 2.364 0.222 0.742 3 550321 1919 1979 61 3.834 1.498 0.779 2.908 0.255 0.708 4 550322 1922 1979 58 4.283 1.644 0.226 2.740 0.245 0.676 5 550331 1917 1979 63 2.967 1.184 0.836 3.028 0.250 0.744 6 550332 1918 1979 62 2.730 1.237 0.375 2.413 0.321 0.619 7 550341 1927 1979 53 3.609 1.077 0.088 3.403 0.257 0.524 8 550342 1928 1979 52 3.301 1.243 0.864 3.063 0.228 0.741 9 550351 1931 1979 49 3.971 1.348 0.588 3.144 0.316 0.421 10 550352 1928 1979 52 4.256 1.665 0.180 2.243 0.279 0.692 11 550361 1921 1979 59 2.216 1.102 0.974 3.751 0.283 0.643 12 550362 1933 1979 47 3.425 1.623 1.156 3.677 0.247 0.701 13 550371 1927 1979 53 2.505 1.370 1.131 4.522 0.332 0.644 14 550372 1929 1979 51 2.925 1.341 0.937 3.949 0.347 0.549 15 550381 1924 1979 56 2.896 1.417 0.727 2.942 0.343 0.653 16 550382 1932 1979 48 3.289 1.659 0.491 2.293 0.410 0.491 17 550391 1920 1979 60 3.564 1.518 -0.121 2.183 0.296 0.662 18 550392 1926 1979 54 3.191 1.145 0.870 4.895 0.300 0.424 19 550401 1928 1979 52 3.269 1.219 1.247 5.677 0.286 0.650 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 550402 1928 1979 52 3.273 1.365 1.532 5.259 0.310 0.544 21 550411 1928 1979 52 2.920 1.866 1.449 4.096 0.315 0.577 22 550412 1929 1979 51 3.419 2.258 1.346 3.780 0.299 0.816 23 550421 1942 1979 38 4.606 1.253 0.080 2.431 0.159 0.705 24 550422 1942 1979 38 5.434 1.558 0.217 3.163 0.179 0.605 25 550431 1931 1979 49 3.475 1.422 0.414 3.116 0.292 0.653 26 550432 1930 1979 50 3.288 1.280 0.177 3.255 0.281 0.624 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 26 FROM 1917 TO 1979 63 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 52 3.447 1.412 0.644 3.383 0.280 0.629 STANDARD DEVIATION 6 0.675 0.277 0.491 0.932 0.054 0.098 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 52 3.303 1.367 0.657 3.153 0.284 0.647 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 7 0.710 0.320 0.757 1.040 0.068 0.152 MINIMUM VALUE 38 2.216 0.920 -0.145 2.183 0.159 0.421 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 49 2.967 1.237 0.217 2.740 0.247 0.549 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 56 3.677 1.558 0.974 3.780 0.315 0.701 MAXIMUM VALUE 63 5.434 2.258 1.532 5.677 0.410 0.816 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.433 0.168 0.009 -0.277 2.862 -0.101 0.827 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.101 SERIES 550332 AND 550421 38 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.827 SERIES 550371 AND 550372 51 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 76.46 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1917 1979 63 3.395 1.025 0.546 2.870 0.203 0.738 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.462 0.200 0.527 26 37 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.12 0.39 1.00 1.07 1.46 2.42 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.10 0.00 0.87 0.97 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 52. 7. 38. 49. 56. 63. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.727 0.664 0.565 0.414 0.296 0.202 0.127 0.105 0.065 -0.001 PACF 0.727 0.288 0.029 -0.175 -0.118 -0.023 0.028 0.104 0.000 -0.141 95% C.L. 0.252 0.361 0.432 0.477 0.499 0.510 0.515 0.517 0.518 0.519 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.593 0.524 0.294 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 550311 1 2.86455154 0.03681200 0.00000000 1.96829355 2 550312 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.09498780 5.67181730 3 550321 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.03786938 5.00772142 4 550322 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.06750070 6.27471876 5 550331 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01266801 3.37236047 6 550332 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.02095515 3.39024854 7 550341 1 2.82946348 0.03092021 0.00000000 2.23923802 8 550342 1 3.67999887 0.09960554 0.00000000 2.62869096 9 550351 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.02906326 4.69760180 10 550352 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.03513020 5.18710423 11 550361 1 2.50363970 0.04671410 0.00000000 1.38498878 12 550362 1 6.30975103 0.18974882 0.00000000 2.78268504 13 550371 1 6.82791281 0.33932903 0.00000000 2.18659425 14 550372 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.04710950 4.14974928 15 550381 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.06208442 4.66494179 16 550382 1 4.06014967 0.04814263 0.00000000 1.74444926 17 550391 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.03980634 4.77825975 18 550392 1 4.74623585 0.23971018 0.00000000 2.86645603 19 550401 1 3.95772600 0.15430284 0.00000000 2.81320858 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 550402 1 3.75815630 0.13909508 0.00000000 2.78894806 21 550411 1 5.74029016 0.07437494 0.00000000 1.52018583 22 550412 1 5.58335972 0.04279115 0.00000000 1.19699550 23 550421 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.09382865 6.43597460 24 550422 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.04622935 6.33594608 25 550431 1 6.98093557 0.52162308 0.00000000 3.26704645 26 550432 1 5.13522148 0.29878598 0.00000000 2.99266195 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 550311 1933 1979 47 1.000 0.208 0.234 3.114 0.215 0.114 2 550312 1939 1979 41 0.994 0.321 1.124 4.359 0.212 0.640 3 550321 1919 1979 61 0.999 0.323 0.108 2.667 0.251 0.516 4 550322 1922 1979 58 0.994 0.266 -0.338 2.978 0.240 0.342 5 550331 1917 1979 63 1.000 0.394 0.900 3.145 0.246 0.714 6 550332 1918 1979 62 1.000 0.447 0.703 3.566 0.316 0.594 7 550341 1927 1979 53 1.000 0.255 0.003 2.915 0.250 0.347 8 550342 1928 1979 52 1.000 0.299 1.451 5.312 0.221 0.567 9 550351 1931 1979 49 1.000 0.324 0.633 3.448 0.309 0.382 10 550352 1928 1979 52 1.000 0.377 0.343 2.683 0.272 0.652 11 550361 1921 1979 59 1.000 0.434 1.173 4.344 0.278 0.475 12 550362 1933 1979 47 1.000 0.355 0.990 3.821 0.241 0.531 13 550371 1927 1979 53 1.000 0.456 0.577 3.058 0.320 0.620 14 550372 1929 1979 51 0.998 0.371 0.361 2.685 0.339 0.349 15 550381 1924 1979 56 1.006 0.362 1.258 5.722 0.336 0.303 16 550382 1932 1979 48 1.000 0.458 1.194 3.938 0.400 0.224 17 550391 1920 1979 60 0.997 0.407 0.201 2.366 0.290 0.617 18 550392 1926 1979 54 1.000 0.280 -0.352 3.318 0.289 0.186 19 550401 1928 1979 52 1.000 0.283 -0.073 2.815 0.279 0.330 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 550402 1928 1979 52 1.000 0.368 2.812 13.763 0.301 0.281 21 550411 1928 1979 52 1.001 0.386 0.898 4.454 0.304 0.503 22 550412 1929 1979 51 1.004 0.426 -0.434 2.572 0.294 0.648 23 550421 1942 1979 38 1.001 0.159 -0.482 3.129 0.156 0.249 24 550422 1942 1979 38 0.999 0.258 -0.485 2.919 0.175 0.585 25 550431 1931 1979 49 1.000 0.375 0.220 2.860 0.275 0.657 26 550432 1930 1979 50 1.000 0.342 -0.257 2.904 0.268 0.540 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 52 1.000 0.344 0.491 3.802 0.272 0.460 STANDARD DEVIATION 6 0.002 0.077 0.764 2.198 0.053 0.171 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 52 1.000 0.358 0.352 3.122 0.277 0.509 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 7 0.001 0.111 1.064 1.079 0.062 0.287 MINIMUM VALUE 38 0.994 0.159 -0.485 2.366 0.156 0.114 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 49 1.000 0.283 -0.073 2.860 0.241 0.330 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 56 1.000 0.394 0.990 3.938 0.304 0.617 MAXIMUM VALUE 63 1.006 0.458 2.812 13.763 0.400 0.714 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 550311 -67 31 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 550312 -67 27 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 550321 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 550322 -67 38 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 550331 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 550332 -67 41 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 550341 -67 35 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 550342 -67 34 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 550351 -67 32 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 550352 -67 34 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 550361 -67 39 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 550362 -67 31 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 550371 -67 35 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 550372 -67 34 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 550381 -67 37 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 550382 -67 32 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 550391 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 550392 -67 36 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 550401 -67 34 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 550402 -67 34 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 550411 -67 34 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 550412 -67 34 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 550421 -67 25 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 550422 -67 25 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 550431 -67 32 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 550432 -67 33 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 550311 1933 1979 47 0.999 0.204 0.171 3.083 0.215 0.093 2 550312 1939 1979 41 0.994 0.271 0.467 2.881 0.214 0.482 3 550321 1919 1979 61 0.989 0.276 0.026 2.686 0.246 0.366 4 550322 1922 1979 58 0.997 0.254 0.079 2.904 0.240 0.245 5 550331 1917 1979 63 0.988 0.331 0.638 2.719 0.243 0.588 6 550332 1918 1979 62 0.978 0.372 0.466 3.400 0.311 0.472 7 550341 1927 1979 53 0.999 0.246 -0.089 2.987 0.249 0.292 8 550342 1928 1979 52 0.997 0.276 1.195 4.531 0.218 0.522 9 550351 1931 1979 49 0.994 0.284 0.288 2.739 0.308 0.214 10 550352 1928 1979 52 0.994 0.337 0.000 2.465 0.270 0.599 11 550361 1921 1979 59 0.996 0.421 1.456 5.535 0.277 0.439 12 550362 1933 1979 47 0.991 0.295 0.887 3.450 0.237 0.369 13 550371 1927 1979 53 0.996 0.352 0.745 3.892 0.322 0.269 14 550372 1929 1979 51 0.992 0.339 0.515 3.100 0.336 0.186 15 550381 1924 1979 56 0.995 0.336 1.217 5.884 0.336 0.209 16 550382 1932 1979 48 0.999 0.456 1.200 3.900 0.400 0.225 17 550391 1920 1979 60 0.976 0.291 0.190 2.731 0.286 0.366 18 550392 1926 1979 54 0.993 0.245 0.307 2.931 0.283 -0.015 19 550401 1928 1979 52 0.998 0.271 0.047 2.646 0.279 0.249 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 550402 1928 1979 52 0.998 0.344 2.262 10.618 0.300 0.232 21 550411 1928 1979 52 0.989 0.308 0.042 3.675 0.301 0.264 22 550412 1929 1979 51 0.989 0.378 -0.809 2.839 0.291 0.558 23 550421 1942 1979 38 0.999 0.148 -0.358 3.589 0.155 0.161 24 550422 1942 1979 38 0.992 0.214 -0.480 3.362 0.173 0.444 25 550431 1931 1979 49 0.987 0.300 0.193 3.292 0.271 0.425 26 550432 1930 1979 50 0.991 0.276 -0.062 3.494 0.265 0.321 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 52 0.993 0.301 0.407 3.667 0.270 0.330 STANDARD DEVIATION 6 0.006 0.067 0.664 1.644 0.053 0.156 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 52 0.994 0.293 0.240 3.196 0.274 0.307 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 7 0.008 0.068 0.719 0.836 0.061 0.220 MINIMUM VALUE 38 0.976 0.148 -0.809 2.465 0.155 -0.015 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 49 0.989 0.271 0.026 2.839 0.240 0.225 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 56 0.997 0.339 0.745 3.675 0.301 0.444 MAXIMUM VALUE 63 0.999 0.456 2.262 10.618 0.400 0.599 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.244 0.190 0.011 -0.194 3.324 -0.362 0.738 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.362 SERIES 550312 AND 550342 41 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.738 SERIES 550311 AND 550312 41 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 76.46 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1917 1979 63 0.976 0.174 -0.090 2.339 0.198 0.194 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.290 0.138 0.107 20 43 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.28 0.64 1.00 1.13 1.77 3.28 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.10 0.00 0.87 0.97 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.191 0.149 0.104 -0.083 -0.098 -0.111 -0.189 -0.089 -0.019 -0.117 PACF 0.191 0.117 0.060 -0.135 -0.089 -0.065 -0.127 -0.013 0.038 -0.111 95% C.L. 0.252 0.261 0.266 0.269 0.271 0.273 0.276 0.284 0.286 0.286 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.050 0.192 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.155 0.077 0.061 -0.069 -0.076 -0.168 -0.251 -0.005 0.025 -0.099 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.155 2 0.147 0.054 3 0.144 0.048 0.042 4 0.148 0.052 0.055 -0.091 5 0.143 0.055 0.059 -0.082 -0.062 6 0.134 0.043 0.067 -0.074 -0.041 -0.147 7 0.104 0.035 0.052 -0.060 -0.032 -0.120 -0.203 8 0.119 0.044 0.055 -0.055 -0.036 -0.122 -0.211 0.077 9 0.115 0.056 0.061 -0.053 -0.033 -0.125 -0.214 0.070 0.056 10 0.122 0.065 0.036 -0.069 -0.037 -0.132 -0.206 0.077 0.070 -0.121 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 426.64 427.11 428.92 430.81 432.29 434.05 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 434.68 434.02 435.65 437.45 438.52 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 0 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 550311 0 0.009 2 550312 0 0.257 3 550321 0 0.138 4 550322 0 0.066 5 550331 0 0.358 6 550332 0 0.234 7 550341 0 0.088 8 550342 0 0.275 9 550351 0 0.048 10 550352 0 0.364 11 550361 0 0.196 12 550362 0 0.138 13 550371 0 0.072 14 550372 0 0.036 15 550381 0 0.045 16 550382 0 0.051 17 550391 0 0.135 18 550392 0 0.000 19 550401 0 0.066 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 550402 0 0.055 21 550411 0 0.070 22 550412 0 0.357 23 550421 0 0.027 24 550422 0 0.235 25 550431 0 0.181 26 550432 0 0.106 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 0 0.139 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.113 MEDIAN 0 0.097 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.183 MINIMUM VALUE 0 0.000 LOWER HINGE 0 0.051 UPPER HINGE 0 0.234 MAXIMUM VALUE 0 0.364 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 550311 1933 1979 47 1.000 0.204 0.171 3.083 0.214 0.093 2 550312 1939 1979 41 1.000 0.271 0.467 2.881 0.212 0.482 3 550321 1919 1979 61 1.000 0.276 0.026 2.686 0.244 0.366 4 550322 1922 1979 58 1.000 0.254 0.079 2.904 0.240 0.245 5 550331 1917 1979 63 1.000 0.331 0.638 2.719 0.239 0.588 6 550332 1918 1979 62 1.000 0.372 0.466 3.400 0.302 0.472 7 550341 1927 1979 53 1.000 0.246 -0.089 2.987 0.248 0.292 8 550342 1928 1979 52 1.000 0.276 1.195 4.531 0.217 0.522 9 550351 1931 1979 49 1.000 0.284 0.288 2.739 0.306 0.214 10 550352 1928 1979 52 1.000 0.337 0.000 2.465 0.268 0.599 11 550361 1921 1979 59 1.000 0.421 1.456 5.535 0.276 0.439 12 550362 1933 1979 47 1.000 0.295 0.887 3.450 0.235 0.369 13 550371 1927 1979 53 1.000 0.352 0.745 3.892 0.320 0.269 14 550372 1929 1979 51 1.000 0.339 0.515 3.100 0.334 0.186 15 550381 1924 1979 56 1.000 0.336 1.217 5.884 0.334 0.209 16 550382 1932 1979 48 1.000 0.456 1.200 3.900 0.400 0.225 17 550391 1920 1979 60 1.000 0.291 0.190 2.731 0.279 0.366 18 550392 1926 1979 54 1.000 0.245 0.307 2.931 0.281 -0.015 19 550401 1928 1979 52 1.000 0.271 0.047 2.646 0.278 0.249 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 550402 1928 1979 52 1.000 0.344 2.262 10.618 0.299 0.232 21 550411 1928 1979 52 1.000 0.308 0.042 3.675 0.297 0.264 22 550412 1929 1979 51 1.000 0.378 -0.809 2.839 0.285 0.558 23 550421 1942 1979 38 1.000 0.148 -0.358 3.589 0.155 0.161 24 550422 1942 1979 38 1.000 0.214 -0.480 3.362 0.172 0.444 25 550431 1931 1979 49 1.000 0.300 0.193 3.292 0.266 0.425 26 550432 1930 1979 50 1.000 0.276 -0.062 3.494 0.263 0.321 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 52 1.000 0.301 0.407 3.667 0.268 0.330 STANDARD DEVIATION 6 0.000 0.067 0.664 1.644 0.052 0.156 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 52 1.000 0.293 0.240 3.196 0.272 0.307 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 7 0.000 0.068 0.719 0.836 0.060 0.220 MINIMUM VALUE 38 1.000 0.148 -0.809 2.465 0.155 -0.015 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 49 1.000 0.271 0.026 2.839 0.239 0.225 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 56 1.000 0.339 0.745 3.675 0.299 0.444 MAXIMUM VALUE 63 1.000 0.456 2.262 10.618 0.400 0.599 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.244 0.190 0.011 -0.194 3.324 -0.362 0.738 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.362 SERIES 550312 AND 550342 41 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.738 SERIES 550311 AND 550312 41 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 76.46 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1917 1979 63 0.985 0.174 -0.088 2.330 0.196 0.195 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.294 0.139 0.106 20 43 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.28 0.60 1.01 1.12 1.72 3.17 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.10 0.00 0.87 0.97 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.192 0.149 0.100 -0.085 -0.100 -0.109 -0.184 -0.088 -0.018 -0.117 PACF 0.192 0.116 0.055 -0.135 -0.089 -0.061 -0.122 -0.015 0.036 -0.112 95% C.L. 0.252 0.261 0.266 0.269 0.271 0.273 0.276 0.283 0.285 0.285 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.051 0.193 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1917 1979 63 0.985 0.174 -0.088 2.330 0.196 0.195 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.192 0.149 0.100 -0.085 -0.100 -0.109 -0.184 -0.088 -0.018 -0.117 PACF 0.192 0.116 0.055 -0.135 -0.089 -0.061 -0.122 -0.015 0.036 -0.112 95% C.L. 0.252 0.261 0.266 0.269 0.271 0.273 0.276 0.283 0.285 0.285 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.051 0.193 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.34 MINUTES