RUN: SWIT001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWIT149P.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWIT149P.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 550 1 Rźti b.Bźren BE,Vergl.Pr LATEWOOD_PERCENT PCAB - 550 2 Switzerland Norway spruce 555 4709-726 1917 1979 - 550 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES --- NO GAPS IN DATA FOUND --- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 550311 1933 1979 47 1.308 0.624 1.022 3.521 0.497 0.136 2 550312 1939 1979 41 1.164 0.663 1.383 4.003 0.507 0.237 3 550321 1919 1979 61 1.082 0.502 1.174 4.567 0.446 0.074 4 550322 1922 1979 58 1.301 0.864 1.959 8.265 0.609 0.167 5 550331 1917 1979 63 1.689 0.947 2.362 12.290 0.423 0.285 6 550332 1918 1979 62 1.968 1.043 0.812 3.050 0.539 0.208 7 550341 1927 1979 53 1.090 0.788 2.072 6.886 0.583 0.308 8 550342 1928 1979 52 1.172 0.715 1.296 3.963 0.481 0.403 9 550351 1931 1979 49 1.298 0.794 1.149 4.684 0.647 0.173 10 550352 1928 1979 52 1.340 0.816 0.967 3.384 0.543 0.417 11 550361 1921 1979 59 2.276 1.155 0.198 2.505 0.414 0.482 12 550362 1933 1979 47 1.657 0.781 0.197 2.012 0.477 0.373 13 550371 1927 1979 53 1.817 1.040 0.611 2.988 0.428 0.504 14 550372 1929 1979 51 1.632 0.971 0.686 2.869 0.587 0.140 15 550381 1924 1979 56 1.748 1.408 0.680 2.451 0.554 0.605 16 550382 1932 1979 48 2.060 1.462 0.458 2.167 0.629 0.529 17 550391 1920 1979 60 2.001 1.221 0.716 2.594 0.530 0.342 18 550392 1926 1979 54 1.943 0.965 0.826 3.670 0.528 0.094 19 550401 1928 1979 52 1.513 0.764 0.655 2.904 0.520 0.223 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 550402 1928 1979 52 1.622 0.828 0.440 2.629 0.525 0.226 21 550411 1928 1979 52 1.264 0.697 0.962 4.470 0.468 0.302 22 550412 1929 1979 51 1.656 1.126 0.964 3.311 0.583 0.310 23 550421 1942 1979 38 0.967 0.427 0.953 3.693 0.331 0.449 24 550422 1942 1979 38 0.751 0.350 1.621 4.797 0.371 0.243 25 550431 1931 1979 49 1.001 0.783 2.610 10.344 0.582 0.480 26 550432 1930 1979 50 0.983 0.743 1.756 5.478 0.576 0.291 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 26 FROM 1917 TO 1979 63 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 52 1.473 0.865 1.097 4.365 0.515 0.308 STANDARD DEVIATION 6 0.398 0.269 0.633 2.509 0.079 0.143 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 52 1.427 0.805 0.963 3.596 0.527 0.296 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 7 0.584 0.325 0.703 1.816 0.114 0.209 MINIMUM VALUE 38 0.751 0.350 0.197 2.012 0.331 0.074 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 49 1.164 0.715 0.680 2.869 0.468 0.208 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 56 1.748 1.040 1.383 4.684 0.582 0.417 MAXIMUM VALUE 63 2.276 1.462 2.610 12.290 0.647 0.605 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.424 0.169 0.009 -0.457 3.487 -0.264 0.824 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.264 SERIES 550332 AND 550421 38 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.824 SERIES 550401 AND 550402 52 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 76.46 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1917 1979 63 1.344 0.660 0.687 3.070 0.409 0.345 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.644 0.444 0.081 29 34 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.79 1.80 1.01 1.28 3.08 49.69 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.09 0.00 0.87 0.96 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 52. 7. 38. 49. 56. 63. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.340 0.273 0.317 0.260 0.271 0.112 0.197 0.172 0.184 0.015 PACF 0.340 0.178 0.211 0.096 0.118 -0.103 0.087 0.017 0.087 -0.171 95% C.L. 0.252 0.280 0.296 0.317 0.330 0.344 0.346 0.353 0.359 0.365 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.148 0.345 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 550311 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01754279 0.88727105 2 550312 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02416376 0.65670729 3 550321 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00969593 0.78106558 4 550322 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01299025 0.91747731 5 550331 1 0.72694194 0.17364742 0.00000000 1.62804341 6 550332 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00682204 1.75268638 7 550341 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02772214 0.34112483 8 550342 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02126057 0.60832578 9 550351 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02934184 0.56400508 10 550352 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02326646 0.72382349 11 550361 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.03302104 1.28580952 12 550362 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02084528 1.15630901 13 550371 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.04093936 0.71161830 14 550372 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02849412 0.89150584 15 550381 -67 37 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 550382 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.06899750 0.36935285 17 550391 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.04228147 0.71124858 18 550392 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02832437 1.16385746 19 550401 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02047170 0.97038460 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 550402 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02393025 0.98796380 21 550411 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01902715 0.75943440 22 550412 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.03379185 0.77709806 23 550421 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02513076 0.47652915 24 550422 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00770763 0.60075390 25 550431 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02195204 0.45181122 26 550432 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02647251 0.30835101 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 550311 1933 1979 47 0.999 0.441 1.038 3.698 0.486 -0.033 2 550312 1939 1979 41 1.000 0.507 1.328 3.598 0.489 0.000 3 550321 1919 1979 61 0.999 0.439 1.086 3.889 0.438 0.046 4 550322 1922 1979 58 1.002 0.725 3.112 15.829 0.598 0.131 5 550331 1917 1979 63 1.000 0.529 1.693 8.657 0.417 0.284 6 550332 1918 1979 62 1.000 0.538 1.041 3.867 0.530 0.196 7 550341 1927 1979 53 1.031 0.665 2.714 12.226 0.572 0.029 8 550342 1928 1979 52 1.003 0.603 2.413 9.465 0.470 0.138 9 550351 1931 1979 49 1.001 0.583 1.818 6.453 0.630 -0.253 10 550352 1928 1979 52 0.999 0.596 1.602 5.242 0.531 0.205 11 550361 1921 1979 59 0.992 0.485 0.801 3.936 0.406 0.443 12 550362 1933 1979 47 0.998 0.449 0.413 2.610 0.466 0.297 13 550371 1927 1979 53 0.997 0.526 1.047 3.924 0.416 0.380 14 550372 1929 1979 51 0.996 0.592 1.324 5.140 0.574 0.099 15 550381 1924 1979 56 1.009 0.654 1.941 7.834 0.548 0.061 16 550382 1932 1979 48 0.963 0.537 0.357 2.557 0.621 0.188 17 550391 1920 1979 60 0.992 0.528 1.473 5.168 0.519 0.072 18 550392 1926 1979 54 0.997 0.435 0.442 2.845 0.515 -0.063 19 550401 1928 1979 52 0.997 0.485 0.885 3.241 0.511 0.050 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 550402 1928 1979 52 0.993 0.475 0.614 2.788 0.513 0.036 21 550411 1928 1979 52 0.990 0.537 1.534 5.453 0.457 0.207 22 550412 1929 1979 51 0.978 0.629 1.516 5.105 0.574 0.208 23 550421 1942 1979 38 1.008 0.343 0.593 2.702 0.322 0.135 24 550422 1942 1979 38 1.001 0.455 1.880 6.805 0.361 0.211 25 550431 1931 1979 49 1.004 0.660 1.524 4.839 0.569 0.343 26 550432 1930 1979 50 1.000 0.645 1.740 5.980 0.569 0.114 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 52 0.998 0.541 1.382 5.533 0.504 0.135 STANDARD DEVIATION 6 0.011 0.091 0.694 3.151 0.078 0.149 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 52 0.999 0.533 1.401 4.972 0.514 0.133 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 7 0.005 0.128 0.855 2.855 0.112 0.161 MINIMUM VALUE 38 0.963 0.343 0.357 2.557 0.322 -0.253 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 49 0.996 0.475 0.885 3.598 0.457 0.046 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 56 1.001 0.603 1.740 6.453 0.569 0.208 MAXIMUM VALUE 63 1.031 0.725 3.112 15.829 0.630 0.443 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 550311 -67 31 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 550312 -67 27 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 550321 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 550322 -67 38 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 550331 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 550332 -67 41 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 550341 -67 35 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 550342 -67 34 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 550351 -67 32 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 550352 -67 34 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 550361 -67 39 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 550362 -67 31 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 550371 -67 35 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 550372 -67 34 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 550381 -67 37 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 550382 -67 32 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 550391 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 550392 -67 36 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 550401 -67 34 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 550402 -67 34 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 550411 -67 34 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 550412 -67 34 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 550421 -67 25 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 550422 -67 25 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 550431 -67 32 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 550432 -67 33 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 550311 1933 1979 47 0.998 0.436 1.194 4.379 0.485 -0.045 2 550312 1939 1979 41 0.991 0.482 1.473 3.854 0.483 -0.075 3 550321 1919 1979 61 0.991 0.404 1.025 3.712 0.437 -0.088 4 550322 1922 1979 58 0.985 0.616 2.432 12.312 0.596 0.039 5 550331 1917 1979 63 0.992 0.514 1.974 10.416 0.415 0.241 6 550332 1918 1979 62 0.988 0.504 1.421 6.178 0.527 0.050 7 550341 1927 1979 53 0.989 0.530 1.332 4.378 0.568 -0.105 8 550342 1928 1979 52 0.986 0.524 1.633 5.310 0.469 0.114 9 550351 1931 1979 49 0.990 0.531 1.372 4.673 0.629 -0.345 10 550352 1928 1979 52 0.994 0.569 1.375 4.368 0.531 0.146 11 550361 1921 1979 59 0.992 0.440 0.709 3.454 0.403 0.232 12 550362 1933 1979 47 0.989 0.394 0.212 2.740 0.461 0.089 13 550371 1927 1979 53 0.981 0.458 0.607 2.729 0.408 0.183 14 550372 1929 1979 51 0.986 0.542 1.279 5.262 0.572 0.026 15 550381 1924 1979 56 0.988 0.619 2.306 11.148 0.545 -0.026 16 550382 1932 1979 48 0.995 0.520 0.300 3.193 0.625 0.045 17 550391 1920 1979 60 0.989 0.487 1.598 6.109 0.516 -0.090 18 550392 1926 1979 54 0.998 0.419 0.245 2.497 0.514 -0.128 19 550401 1928 1979 52 0.996 0.486 1.308 5.152 0.511 -0.025 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 550402 1928 1979 52 0.996 0.472 1.275 5.371 0.512 -0.115 21 550411 1928 1979 52 0.992 0.473 2.064 7.937 0.460 -0.098 22 550412 1929 1979 51 0.994 0.519 0.930 3.186 0.579 -0.039 23 550421 1942 1979 38 0.996 0.321 1.103 3.698 0.321 -0.009 24 550422 1942 1979 38 0.991 0.400 1.487 5.148 0.360 0.115 25 550431 1931 1979 49 0.969 0.506 0.973 3.702 0.562 0.108 26 550432 1930 1979 50 0.981 0.557 1.494 4.543 0.566 -0.068 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 52 0.990 0.489 1.274 5.210 0.502 0.005 STANDARD DEVIATION 6 0.006 0.069 0.571 2.564 0.079 0.129 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 52 0.991 0.495 1.320 4.461 0.513 -0.017 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 7 0.006 0.090 0.521 1.673 0.106 0.196 MINIMUM VALUE 38 0.969 0.321 0.212 2.497 0.321 -0.345 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 49 0.988 0.440 0.973 3.698 0.460 -0.088 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 56 0.994 0.530 1.494 5.371 0.566 0.108 MAXIMUM VALUE 63 0.998 0.619 2.432 12.312 0.629 0.241 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.355 0.160 0.009 -0.056 3.115 -0.088 0.860 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.088 SERIES 550332 AND 550421 38 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.860 SERIES 550401 AND 550402 52 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 76.46 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1917 1979 63 0.948 0.360 0.750 3.003 0.396 0.004 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.688 0.349 0.014 25 38 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.44 0.87 1.04 1.06 1.93 18.26 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.11 0.00 0.87 0.98 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.004 -0.112 -0.124 -0.032 -0.034 -0.060 0.075 -0.057 0.125 -0.165 PACF 0.004 -0.112 -0.124 -0.046 -0.065 -0.089 0.052 -0.091 0.121 -0.184 95% C.L. 0.252 0.252 0.255 0.259 0.259 0.259 0.260 0.262 0.262 0.266 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.054 -0.077 -0.141 0.108 0.114 -0.302 -0.024 0.003 0.046 -0.158 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 -0.054 2 -0.059 -0.080 3 -0.071 -0.089 -0.151 4 -0.058 -0.081 -0.145 0.086 5 -0.067 -0.066 -0.137 0.092 0.106 6 -0.034 -0.037 -0.179 0.072 0.086 -0.310 7 -0.038 -0.036 -0.178 0.070 0.085 -0.310 -0.012 8 -0.038 -0.039 -0.177 0.070 0.083 -0.310 -0.013 -0.010 9 -0.039 -0.041 -0.203 0.077 0.089 -0.325 -0.016 -0.013 -0.083 10 -0.051 -0.042 -0.205 0.031 0.102 -0.314 -0.045 -0.019 -0.088 -0.141 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 502.02 503.84 505.43 505.97 507.50 508.79 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 504.44 506.43 508.43 509.99 510.72 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 0 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 550311 0 0.002 2 550312 0 0.006 3 550321 0 0.008 4 550322 0 0.002 5 550331 0 0.061 6 550332 0 0.003 7 550341 0 0.011 8 550342 0 0.017 9 550351 0 0.122 10 550352 0 0.025 11 550361 0 0.063 12 550362 0 0.008 13 550371 0 0.036 14 550372 0 0.001 15 550381 0 0.001 16 550382 0 0.002 17 550391 0 0.008 18 550392 0 0.017 19 550401 0 0.001 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 550402 0 0.017 21 550411 0 0.014 22 550412 0 0.002 23 550421 0 0.000 24 550422 0 0.014 25 550431 0 0.012 26 550432 0 0.005 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 0 0.018 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.027 MEDIAN 0 0.008 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.015 MINIMUM VALUE 0 0.000 LOWER HINGE 0 0.002 UPPER HINGE 0 0.017 MAXIMUM VALUE 0 0.122 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 550311 1933 1979 47 1.000 0.436 1.194 4.379 0.484 -0.045 2 550312 1939 1979 41 1.000 0.482 1.473 3.854 0.479 -0.075 3 550321 1919 1979 61 1.000 0.404 1.025 3.712 0.433 -0.088 4 550322 1922 1979 58 1.000 0.616 2.432 12.312 0.582 0.039 5 550331 1917 1979 63 1.000 0.514 1.974 10.416 0.411 0.241 6 550332 1918 1979 62 1.000 0.504 1.421 6.178 0.520 0.050 7 550341 1927 1979 53 1.000 0.530 1.332 4.378 0.562 -0.105 8 550342 1928 1979 52 1.000 0.524 1.633 5.310 0.461 0.114 9 550351 1931 1979 49 1.000 0.531 1.372 4.673 0.623 -0.345 10 550352 1928 1979 52 1.000 0.569 1.375 4.368 0.527 0.146 11 550361 1921 1979 59 1.000 0.440 0.709 3.454 0.399 0.232 12 550362 1933 1979 47 1.000 0.394 0.212 2.740 0.455 0.089 13 550371 1927 1979 53 1.000 0.458 0.607 2.729 0.400 0.183 14 550372 1929 1979 51 1.000 0.542 1.279 5.262 0.563 0.026 15 550381 1924 1979 56 1.000 0.619 2.306 11.148 0.537 -0.026 16 550382 1932 1979 48 1.000 0.520 0.300 3.193 0.620 0.045 17 550391 1920 1979 60 1.000 0.487 1.598 6.109 0.510 -0.090 18 550392 1926 1979 54 1.000 0.419 0.245 2.497 0.513 -0.128 19 550401 1928 1979 52 1.000 0.486 1.308 5.152 0.509 -0.025 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 550402 1928 1979 52 1.000 0.472 1.275 5.371 0.510 -0.115 21 550411 1928 1979 52 1.000 0.473 2.064 7.937 0.456 -0.098 22 550412 1929 1979 51 1.000 0.519 0.930 3.186 0.575 -0.039 23 550421 1942 1979 38 1.000 0.321 1.103 3.698 0.319 -0.009 24 550422 1942 1979 38 1.000 0.400 1.487 5.148 0.357 0.115 25 550431 1931 1979 49 1.000 0.506 0.973 3.702 0.542 0.108 26 550432 1930 1979 50 1.000 0.557 1.494 4.543 0.555 -0.068 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 52 1.000 0.489 1.274 5.210 0.496 0.005 STANDARD DEVIATION 6 0.000 0.069 0.571 2.564 0.077 0.129 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 52 1.000 0.495 1.320 4.461 0.510 -0.017 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 7 0.000 0.090 0.521 1.673 0.100 0.196 MINIMUM VALUE 38 1.000 0.321 0.212 2.497 0.319 -0.345 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 49 1.000 0.440 0.973 3.698 0.455 -0.088 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 56 1.000 0.530 1.494 5.371 0.555 0.108 MAXIMUM VALUE 63 1.000 0.619 2.432 12.312 0.623 0.241 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.355 0.160 0.009 -0.056 3.115 -0.088 0.860 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.088 SERIES 550332 AND 550421 38 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.860 SERIES 550401 AND 550402 52 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 76.46 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1917 1979 63 0.959 0.359 0.751 3.007 0.391 0.005 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.691 0.350 0.009 25 38 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.44 0.83 1.04 1.07 1.90 18.37 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.11 0.00 0.87 0.98 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.005 -0.113 -0.123 -0.033 -0.035 -0.059 0.074 -0.057 0.125 -0.164 PACF 0.005 -0.113 -0.124 -0.047 -0.065 -0.088 0.051 -0.091 0.121 -0.184 95% C.L. 0.252 0.252 0.255 0.259 0.259 0.259 0.260 0.262 0.262 0.266 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1917 1979 63 0.959 0.359 0.751 3.007 0.391 0.005 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.005 -0.113 -0.123 -0.033 -0.035 -0.059 0.074 -0.057 0.125 -0.164 PACF 0.005 -0.113 -0.124 -0.047 -0.065 -0.088 0.051 -0.091 0.121 -0.184 95% C.L. 0.252 0.252 0.255 0.259 0.259 0.259 0.260 0.262 0.262 0.266 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 1.36 MINUTES