RUN: SWIT001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWIT149W.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWIT149W.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 550 1 Rźti b.Bźren BE,Vergl.Pr WIDTH_RING PCAB - 550 2 Switzerland Norway spruce 555 4709-726 1917 1979 - 550 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES --- NO GAPS IN DATA FOUND --- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 550311 1933 1979 47 3.776 0.904 0.051 3.647 0.196 0.562 2 550312 1939 1979 41 4.097 1.534 -0.288 2.387 0.194 0.781 3 550321 1919 1979 61 4.252 1.519 0.744 2.971 0.220 0.739 4 550322 1922 1979 58 4.881 1.743 0.227 2.594 0.189 0.797 5 550331 1917 1979 63 3.535 1.221 0.676 2.844 0.209 0.746 6 550332 1918 1979 62 3.318 1.257 0.189 2.730 0.252 0.632 7 550341 1927 1979 53 4.009 1.013 0.008 3.859 0.206 0.558 8 550342 1928 1979 52 3.697 1.247 0.942 3.061 0.191 0.711 9 550351 1931 1979 49 4.494 1.250 0.546 3.213 0.241 0.474 10 550352 1928 1979 52 4.821 1.630 0.139 2.339 0.236 0.704 11 550361 1921 1979 59 2.765 1.053 0.623 3.523 0.219 0.661 12 550362 1933 1979 47 4.002 1.598 1.123 3.760 0.210 0.719 13 550371 1927 1979 53 2.941 1.329 0.907 3.997 0.273 0.654 14 550372 1929 1979 51 3.394 1.270 0.840 3.886 0.254 0.593 15 550381 1924 1979 56 3.368 1.238 0.810 3.532 0.277 0.605 16 550382 1932 1979 48 3.954 1.492 0.422 2.356 0.311 0.457 17 550391 1920 1979 60 4.325 1.492 -0.396 2.401 0.193 0.766 18 550392 1926 1979 54 3.906 1.133 0.453 5.044 0.213 0.540 19 550401 1928 1979 52 3.793 1.181 1.007 5.273 0.224 0.670 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 550402 1928 1979 52 3.832 1.321 1.545 5.344 0.242 0.603 21 550411 1928 1979 52 3.267 1.893 1.450 4.284 0.266 0.556 22 550412 1929 1979 51 3.973 2.215 1.218 3.749 0.232 0.827 23 550421 1942 1979 38 5.059 1.212 0.086 2.484 0.138 0.714 24 550422 1942 1979 38 5.842 1.551 0.221 3.156 0.163 0.626 25 550431 1931 1979 49 3.788 1.373 0.457 3.143 0.244 0.666 26 550432 1930 1979 50 3.578 1.231 0.095 3.303 0.234 0.641 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 26 FROM 1917 TO 1979 63 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 52 3.949 1.381 0.542 3.418 0.224 0.654 STANDARD DEVIATION 6 0.675 0.285 0.505 0.869 0.037 0.096 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 52 3.869 1.296 0.501 3.258 0.222 0.658 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 7 0.718 0.312 0.768 1.129 0.048 0.126 MINIMUM VALUE 38 2.765 0.904 -0.396 2.339 0.138 0.457 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 49 3.535 1.221 0.139 2.730 0.196 0.593 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 56 4.252 1.534 0.907 3.859 0.244 0.719 MAXIMUM VALUE 63 5.842 2.215 1.545 5.344 0.311 0.827 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.393 0.181 0.010 -0.223 2.879 -0.144 0.863 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.144 SERIES 550311 AND 550352 47 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.863 SERIES 550321 AND 550322 58 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 76.46 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1917 1979 63 3.892 0.946 0.472 2.834 0.152 0.764 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.509 0.202 0.438 26 37 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.10 0.22 1.00 1.05 1.26 1.78 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.08 0.00 0.87 0.94 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 52. 7. 38. 49. 56. 63. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.751 0.703 0.570 0.417 0.257 0.178 0.070 0.068 0.036 -0.043 PACF 0.751 0.317 -0.073 -0.214 -0.200 0.073 0.027 0.172 0.018 -0.279 95% C.L. 0.252 0.368 0.445 0.489 0.511 0.519 0.523 0.524 0.524 0.525 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.644 0.519 0.330 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 550311 1 2.83196306 0.03497612 0.00000000 2.41072011 2 550312 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.09799303 6.15517092 3 550321 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.03715230 5.40418053 4 550322 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.07375526 7.05698729 5 550331 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01721534 4.08549404 6 550332 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.02076503 3.97248554 7 550341 1 2.28847337 0.07915759 0.00000000 3.49316335 8 550342 1 4.06407166 0.13085200 0.00000000 3.13810897 9 550351 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01931939 4.97686243 10 550352 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.02837787 5.57278299 11 550361 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.03346230 3.76912332 12 550362 1 6.34515190 0.18973340 0.00000000 3.35604453 13 550371 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.04323899 4.10877371 14 550372 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.04316923 4.51592922 15 550381 1 3.97362852 0.02135607 0.00000000 1.07479024 16 550382 1 3.06641841 0.04811665 0.00000000 2.78667212 17 550391 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.02939844 5.22181940 18 550392 1 5.13319254 0.31341010 0.00000000 3.64730167 19 550401 1 4.25209332 0.19414774 0.00000000 3.41186333 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 550402 1 3.72969675 0.16744508 0.00000000 3.43888831 21 550411 1 5.83254576 0.07285624 0.00000000 1.81622362 22 550412 1 5.40927935 0.04001140 0.00000000 1.71244788 23 550421 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.09036328 6.82076836 24 550422 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.04491192 6.71762466 25 550431 1 6.87402201 0.53773522 0.00000000 3.59116721 26 550432 1 5.08995342 0.33201519 0.00000000 3.31967926 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 550311 1933 1979 47 1.000 0.182 0.001 3.272 0.191 0.151 2 550312 1939 1979 41 0.995 0.284 0.959 4.258 0.190 0.668 3 550321 1919 1979 61 0.999 0.298 0.052 2.770 0.217 0.583 4 550322 1922 1979 58 0.995 0.232 -0.525 3.241 0.186 0.493 5 550331 1917 1979 63 1.000 0.337 0.766 2.943 0.206 0.701 6 550332 1918 1979 62 1.000 0.377 0.599 4.018 0.247 0.606 7 550341 1927 1979 53 1.000 0.221 -0.207 3.711 0.200 0.454 8 550342 1928 1979 52 1.000 0.265 1.603 5.340 0.184 0.537 9 550351 1931 1979 49 1.000 0.271 0.546 3.350 0.235 0.453 10 550352 1928 1979 52 1.000 0.330 0.287 2.777 0.231 0.678 11 550361 1921 1979 59 1.000 0.327 0.881 4.648 0.216 0.501 12 550362 1933 1979 47 1.000 0.286 0.740 3.306 0.205 0.549 13 550371 1927 1979 53 0.997 0.370 0.383 2.817 0.266 0.575 14 550372 1929 1979 51 0.998 0.308 0.359 2.857 0.246 0.456 15 550381 1924 1979 56 1.000 0.291 1.304 6.746 0.271 0.340 16 550382 1932 1979 48 1.000 0.345 0.845 3.413 0.304 0.304 17 550391 1920 1979 60 0.999 0.342 -0.039 2.302 0.189 0.760 18 550392 1926 1979 54 1.000 0.236 -0.822 3.865 0.207 0.447 19 550401 1928 1979 52 1.000 0.240 -0.187 3.453 0.219 0.407 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 550402 1928 1979 52 1.000 0.306 2.679 12.334 0.236 0.423 21 550411 1928 1979 52 1.001 0.347 0.745 3.956 0.257 0.531 22 550412 1929 1979 51 1.002 0.374 -0.611 2.952 0.229 0.673 23 550421 1942 1979 38 1.001 0.141 -0.566 3.326 0.134 0.297 24 550422 1942 1979 38 1.000 0.240 -0.457 3.122 0.159 0.611 25 550431 1931 1979 49 1.000 0.330 0.278 3.046 0.232 0.666 26 550432 1930 1979 50 1.000 0.302 -0.351 3.063 0.223 0.573 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 52 0.999 0.292 0.356 3.880 0.219 0.517 STANDARD DEVIATION 6 0.002 0.060 0.785 1.954 0.036 0.144 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 52 1.000 0.300 0.323 3.316 0.218 0.534 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 7 0.000 0.098 0.973 1.004 0.045 0.164 MINIMUM VALUE 38 0.995 0.141 -0.822 2.302 0.134 0.151 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 49 1.000 0.240 -0.207 2.952 0.191 0.447 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 56 1.000 0.337 0.766 3.956 0.236 0.611 MAXIMUM VALUE 63 1.002 0.377 2.679 12.334 0.304 0.760 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 550311 -67 31 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 550312 -67 27 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 550321 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 550322 -67 38 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 550331 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 550332 -67 41 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 550341 -67 35 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 550342 -67 34 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 550351 -67 32 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 550352 -67 34 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 550361 -67 39 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 550362 -67 31 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 550371 -67 35 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 550372 -67 34 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 550381 -67 37 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 550382 -67 32 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 550391 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 550392 -67 36 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 550401 -67 34 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 550402 -67 34 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 550411 -67 34 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 550412 -67 34 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 550421 -67 25 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 550422 -67 25 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 550431 -67 32 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 550432 -67 33 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 550311 1933 1979 47 0.999 0.178 -0.072 3.231 0.191 0.126 2 550312 1939 1979 41 0.995 0.241 0.370 3.062 0.193 0.495 3 550321 1919 1979 61 0.991 0.250 -0.108 2.640 0.211 0.439 4 550322 1922 1979 58 0.996 0.213 -0.182 2.932 0.184 0.390 5 550331 1917 1979 63 0.990 0.280 0.538 2.718 0.204 0.557 6 550332 1918 1979 62 0.984 0.323 0.520 4.014 0.243 0.507 7 550341 1927 1979 53 0.999 0.212 -0.303 3.751 0.200 0.396 8 550342 1928 1979 52 0.998 0.249 1.489 5.192 0.182 0.504 9 550351 1931 1979 49 0.995 0.236 0.219 2.992 0.234 0.303 10 550352 1928 1979 52 0.995 0.293 -0.035 2.568 0.227 0.628 11 550361 1921 1979 59 0.998 0.321 1.052 5.186 0.215 0.484 12 550362 1933 1979 47 0.993 0.237 0.605 3.237 0.203 0.392 13 550371 1927 1979 53 0.987 0.297 0.296 2.992 0.261 0.342 14 550372 1929 1979 51 0.994 0.269 0.394 2.935 0.242 0.283 15 550381 1924 1979 56 0.997 0.270 0.910 5.581 0.271 0.267 16 550382 1932 1979 48 0.999 0.341 0.814 3.266 0.304 0.297 17 550391 1920 1979 60 0.983 0.232 -0.017 3.134 0.188 0.557 18 550392 1926 1979 54 0.993 0.195 -0.060 3.396 0.207 0.211 19 550401 1928 1979 52 0.999 0.228 0.072 3.321 0.219 0.298 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 550402 1928 1979 52 0.998 0.285 2.157 9.570 0.235 0.376 21 550411 1928 1979 52 0.991 0.275 -0.153 3.548 0.255 0.290 22 550412 1929 1979 51 0.991 0.336 -1.039 3.333 0.225 0.609 23 550421 1942 1979 38 0.999 0.130 -0.419 3.597 0.133 0.207 24 550422 1942 1979 38 0.993 0.197 -0.505 3.849 0.157 0.464 25 550431 1931 1979 49 0.990 0.261 0.153 3.525 0.225 0.464 26 550432 1930 1979 50 0.993 0.244 -0.092 4.127 0.221 0.399 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 52 0.994 0.254 0.254 3.757 0.216 0.396 STANDARD DEVIATION 6 0.005 0.050 0.659 1.414 0.036 0.129 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 52 0.994 0.249 0.113 3.327 0.217 0.394 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 7 0.007 0.057 0.646 0.857 0.042 0.198 MINIMUM VALUE 38 0.983 0.130 -1.039 2.568 0.133 0.126 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 49 0.991 0.228 -0.108 2.992 0.193 0.297 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 56 0.998 0.285 0.538 3.849 0.235 0.495 MAXIMUM VALUE 63 0.999 0.341 2.157 9.570 0.304 0.628 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.210 0.205 0.011 -0.199 3.339 -0.453 0.754 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.453 SERIES 550312 AND 550342 41 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.754 SERIES 550311 AND 550312 41 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 76.46 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1917 1979 63 0.981 0.138 -0.182 2.540 0.151 0.245 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.280 0.150 0.063 22 41 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.17 0.49 1.00 1.02 1.51 3.47 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.07 0.00 0.87 0.94 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.241 0.244 0.151 -0.079 -0.190 -0.112 -0.255 -0.103 0.015 -0.130 PACF 0.241 0.197 0.062 -0.185 -0.214 0.001 -0.129 0.033 0.103 -0.157 95% C.L. 0.252 0.266 0.280 0.285 0.287 0.295 0.297 0.311 0.313 0.313 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.103 0.195 0.203 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.215 0.165 0.098 -0.124 -0.236 -0.124 -0.279 -0.007 0.077 -0.092 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.215 2 0.188 0.124 3 0.183 0.116 0.043 4 0.191 0.137 0.076 -0.182 5 0.151 0.154 0.106 -0.140 -0.220 6 0.149 0.153 0.107 -0.138 -0.218 -0.011 7 0.147 0.112 0.082 -0.118 -0.190 0.017 -0.185 8 0.171 0.110 0.106 -0.103 -0.200 0.002 -0.204 0.130 9 0.158 0.130 0.106 -0.084 -0.191 -0.008 -0.214 0.114 0.095 10 0.176 0.150 0.067 -0.085 -0.225 -0.023 -0.195 0.137 0.124 -0.182 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 396.72 395.74 396.76 398.64 398.53 397.42 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 399.41 399.22 400.15 401.57 401.44 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.215 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 4.63 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 104.85 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.215 0.046 0.010 0.002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 550311 1 0.030 0.131 2 550312 1 0.275 0.523 3 550321 1 0.199 0.446 4 550322 1 0.178 0.415 5 550331 1 0.322 0.567 6 550332 1 0.273 0.522 7 550341 1 0.214 0.399 8 550342 1 0.259 0.505 9 550351 1 0.099 0.313 10 550352 1 0.410 0.634 11 550361 1 0.281 0.487 12 550362 1 0.156 0.394 13 550371 1 0.124 0.350 14 550372 1 0.113 0.291 15 550381 1 0.084 0.272 16 550382 1 0.210 0.303 17 550391 1 0.313 0.557 18 550392 1 0.050 0.215 19 550401 1 0.149 0.315 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 550402 1 0.178 0.379 21 550411 1 0.142 0.291 22 550412 1 0.445 0.657 23 550421 1 0.046 0.211 24 550422 1 0.278 0.507 25 550431 1 0.223 0.465 26 550432 1 0.190 0.404 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.202 0.406 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.106 0.134 MEDIAN 1 0.194 0.402 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.151 0.204 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.030 0.131 LOWER HINGE 1 0.124 0.303 UPPER HINGE 1 0.275 0.507 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.445 0.657 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 550311 1933 1979 47 1.000 0.177 0.006 3.244 0.204 -0.011 2 550312 1939 1979 41 1.000 0.205 0.482 3.416 0.230 -0.006 3 550321 1919 1979 61 1.000 0.223 0.041 2.948 0.243 -0.004 4 550322 1922 1979 58 1.000 0.192 -0.047 2.501 0.210 0.004 5 550331 1917 1979 63 1.000 0.230 0.919 4.556 0.245 0.019 6 550332 1918 1979 62 1.000 0.275 1.078 5.139 0.281 0.013 7 550341 1927 1979 53 1.000 0.194 -0.036 3.059 0.218 0.098 8 550342 1928 1979 52 1.000 0.215 2.129 7.819 0.212 0.036 9 550351 1931 1979 49 1.000 0.223 0.370 3.414 0.262 -0.020 10 550352 1928 1979 52 1.000 0.227 0.085 2.726 0.259 0.079 11 550361 1921 1979 59 1.000 0.280 1.774 8.057 0.253 0.110 12 550362 1933 1979 47 1.000 0.217 0.542 3.724 0.239 -0.011 13 550371 1927 1979 53 1.000 0.278 0.885 3.587 0.295 -0.020 14 550372 1929 1979 51 1.000 0.257 0.783 3.416 0.271 -0.052 15 550381 1924 1979 56 1.000 0.260 0.956 5.397 0.295 0.026 16 550382 1932 1979 48 1.000 0.325 0.618 3.160 0.328 0.111 17 550391 1920 1979 60 1.000 0.193 0.338 3.556 0.231 -0.034 18 550392 1926 1979 54 1.000 0.190 0.062 3.353 0.230 0.016 19 550401 1928 1979 52 1.000 0.216 0.153 3.008 0.231 0.081 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 550402 1928 1979 52 1.000 0.263 1.498 6.503 0.262 0.074 21 550411 1928 1979 52 1.000 0.263 -0.261 4.192 0.289 -0.063 22 550412 1929 1979 51 1.000 0.246 -0.491 5.233 0.272 0.053 23 550421 1942 1979 38 1.000 0.127 -0.401 3.250 0.149 0.005 24 550422 1942 1979 38 1.000 0.166 -0.618 3.998 0.211 -0.119 25 550431 1931 1979 49 1.000 0.231 0.394 3.660 0.242 0.042 26 550432 1930 1979 50 1.000 0.223 0.086 3.456 0.256 0.075 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 52 1.000 0.227 0.436 4.091 0.247 0.019 STANDARD DEVIATION 6 0.000 0.042 0.678 1.459 0.037 0.056 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 52 1.000 0.223 0.354 3.506 0.244 0.014 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 7 0.000 0.066 0.878 1.312 0.041 0.085 MINIMUM VALUE 38 1.000 0.127 -0.618 2.501 0.149 -0.119 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 49 1.000 0.194 0.006 3.244 0.230 -0.011 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 56 1.000 0.260 0.885 4.556 0.271 0.074 MAXIMUM VALUE 63 1.000 0.325 2.129 8.057 0.328 0.111 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.263 0.164 0.009 -0.046 3.481 -0.298 0.783 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.298 SERIES 550412 AND 550421 38 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.783 SERIES 550311 AND 550312 41 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 76.46 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1917 1979 63 0.990 0.129 0.141 2.732 0.180 -0.266 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.233 0.128 0.050 24 39 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.29 0.54 1.02 1.09 1.63 6.49 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.07 0.00 0.88 0.95 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.262 0.159 0.074 -0.048 -0.160 0.067 -0.223 -0.014 0.108 -0.095 PACF -0.262 0.097 0.148 -0.013 -0.231 -0.033 -0.159 -0.085 0.141 -0.004 95% C.L. 0.252 0.269 0.275 0.276 0.276 0.282 0.283 0.294 0.294 0.297 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.082 -0.266 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.027 0.138 0.112 -0.087 -0.181 -0.043 -0.240 -0.039 0.087 -0.103 PACF 0.027 0.137 0.107 -0.113 -0.218 -0.026 -0.170 0.010 0.136 -0.101 95% C.L. 0.252 0.252 0.257 0.260 0.262 0.270 0.270 0.283 0.284 0.285 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.021 0.027 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1917 1979 63 0.991 0.129 -0.166 2.338 0.135 0.276 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.271 0.205 0.122 -0.094 -0.208 -0.135 -0.258 -0.079 0.038 -0.109 PACF 0.271 0.142 0.039 -0.177 -0.197 -0.012 -0.150 0.069 0.097 -0.170 95% C.L. 0.252 0.270 0.280 0.283 0.285 0.294 0.298 0.312 0.313 0.314 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.094 0.273 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.36 MINUTES