RUN: SWIT001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWIT150L.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWIT150L.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 551 1 Wylewald BE, Tanne abst. WIDTH_LATE ABAL - 551 2 Switzerland silver fir, European fir 570 4701-729 1900 1979 - 551 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 551011 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1967 1967 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 2 551012 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1967 1967 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 551021 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1968 1968 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 551081 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1971 1971 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 551091 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1963 1963 / 1968 1968 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 20 551112 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1919 1919 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 551011 1914 1969 56 0.922 0.409 0.212 3.026 0.282 0.560 2 551012 1902 1973 72 0.676 0.321 0.399 3.970 0.311 0.728 3 551021 1914 1979 66 0.912 0.489 0.656 3.594 0.313 0.761 4 551022 1916 1979 64 0.690 0.350 -0.069 2.529 0.323 0.802 5 551041 1918 1979 62 0.723 0.424 0.357 2.375 0.402 0.717 6 551042 1919 1978 60 0.933 0.506 0.051 2.500 0.440 0.622 7 551051 1917 1974 58 0.510 0.282 0.006 2.528 0.453 0.661 8 551052 1915 1974 60 0.627 0.291 0.285 3.464 0.350 0.524 9 551061 1905 1979 75 0.336 0.228 1.151 3.628 0.475 0.518 10 551062 1903 1979 77 0.307 0.203 0.864 3.262 0.504 0.630 11 551071 1910 1977 68 0.589 0.265 0.255 2.859 0.293 0.571 12 551072 1909 1979 71 0.553 0.262 0.614 3.412 0.375 0.469 13 551081 1909 1975 67 0.473 0.269 0.641 2.708 0.349 0.758 14 551082 1910 1979 70 0.534 0.320 0.522 3.143 0.414 0.771 15 551091 1907 1973 67 0.708 0.406 0.516 3.954 0.281 0.731 16 551092 1913 1977 65 0.736 0.445 0.105 2.151 0.367 0.814 17 551101 1904 1979 76 0.504 0.255 0.085 2.402 0.488 0.474 18 551102 1901 1979 79 0.487 0.222 0.003 2.845 0.405 0.535 19 551111 1907 1979 73 0.513 0.219 0.763 3.674 0.375 0.488 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 551112 1906 1979 74 0.666 0.300 1.125 5.380 0.342 0.543 21 551121 1915 1979 65 0.585 0.223 -0.213 2.368 0.289 0.667 22 551122 1913 1979 67 0.615 0.231 0.412 3.300 0.323 0.451 23 551131 1906 1979 74 0.791 0.308 -0.755 2.812 0.265 0.739 24 551132 1912 1979 68 0.659 0.242 -0.415 2.867 0.379 0.418 25 551141 1904 1978 75 0.634 0.328 0.635 3.859 0.346 0.657 26 551142 1900 1977 78 0.580 0.276 0.828 3.133 0.333 0.646 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 26 FROM 1900 TO 1979 80 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 68 0.626 0.311 0.347 3.144 0.365 0.625 STANDARD DEVIATION 6 0.157 0.086 0.451 0.700 0.067 0.119 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 68 0.621 0.286 0.378 3.079 0.349 0.638 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 9 0.195 0.108 0.590 1.065 0.092 0.207 MINIMUM VALUE 55 0.307 0.203 -0.755 2.151 0.265 0.418 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 65 0.513 0.242 0.051 2.529 0.313 0.524 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 74 0.708 0.350 0.641 3.594 0.405 0.731 MAXIMUM VALUE 79 0.933 0.506 1.151 5.380 0.504 0.814 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.502 0.176 0.010 -0.364 2.668 0.022 0.866 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.022 SERIES 551012 AND 551122 61 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.866 SERIES 551061 AND 551062 75 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 80.24 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1900 1979 80 0.580 0.219 -0.393 2.712 0.250 0.791 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.676 0.267 0.086 40 40 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.19 0.61 1.01 1.08 1.68 20.22 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.11 0.00 0.85 0.96 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 68. 9. 56. 65. 74. 79. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.781 0.777 0.739 0.646 0.639 0.612 0.513 0.521 0.446 0.427 PACF 0.781 0.428 0.182 -0.123 0.061 0.101 -0.178 0.039 -0.056 0.065 95% C.L. 0.224 0.333 0.414 0.475 0.517 0.555 0.588 0.610 0.632 0.648 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.739 0.271 0.392 0.258 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 551011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01628974 1.37397814 2 551012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00829273 0.97173971 3 551021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01050560 1.25134897 4 551022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01409890 1.14790177 5 551041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01798998 1.28991008 6 551042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.02075076 1.56556499 7 551051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00829770 0.75495464 8 551052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00462295 0.76833332 9 551061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00341707 0.46611533 10 551062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00404674 0.46496582 11 551071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01024335 0.94266021 12 551072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00908551 0.88017708 13 551081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00997668 0.80633229 14 551082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01157606 0.94537890 15 551091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01107942 1.06666398 16 551092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01403977 1.19915867 17 551101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00702515 0.77454734 18 551102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00640117 0.74313533 19 551111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00293225 0.62123287 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 551112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00024615 0.67168039 21 551121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00762675 0.83645195 22 551122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00084763 0.58610582 23 551131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00859622 1.11370969 24 551132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00463335 0.81926250 25 551141 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00322276 0.75646484 26 551142 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00052479 0.55927074 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 551011 1914 1969 56 0.996 0.406 0.431 4.024 0.296 0.556 2 551012 1902 1973 72 0.985 0.444 0.605 3.850 0.323 0.700 3 551021 1914 1979 66 0.992 0.546 0.901 3.631 0.316 0.730 4 551022 1916 1979 64 0.986 0.421 0.674 4.177 0.315 0.632 5 551041 1918 1979 62 0.972 0.372 -0.042 2.350 0.390 0.122 6 551042 1919 1978 60 0.964 0.431 -0.087 3.113 0.432 0.332 7 551051 1917 1974 58 0.974 0.515 0.215 2.585 0.447 0.534 8 551052 1915 1974 60 0.996 0.473 0.576 3.689 0.344 0.481 9 551061 1905 1979 75 0.986 0.636 1.340 4.100 0.469 0.467 10 551062 1903 1979 77 0.971 0.598 1.123 3.676 0.498 0.528 11 551071 1910 1977 68 0.984 0.295 1.080 5.656 0.286 0.250 12 551072 1909 1979 71 1.001 0.390 1.431 5.832 0.368 0.014 13 551081 1909 1975 67 0.985 0.403 0.663 2.841 0.350 0.439 14 551082 1910 1979 70 0.965 0.412 0.325 3.273 0.405 0.391 15 551091 1907 1973 67 0.962 0.532 0.524 2.985 0.292 0.754 16 551092 1913 1977 65 0.949 0.515 0.478 2.675 0.362 0.723 17 551101 1904 1979 76 0.992 0.490 1.124 5.385 0.480 0.100 18 551102 1901 1979 79 0.994 0.430 1.931 12.269 0.397 0.048 19 551111 1907 1979 73 0.997 0.427 1.264 5.163 0.369 0.459 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 551112 1906 1979 74 1.000 0.453 1.169 5.489 0.341 0.522 21 551121 1915 1979 65 1.001 0.334 0.399 3.937 0.283 0.433 22 551122 1913 1979 67 1.000 0.371 0.316 3.204 0.318 0.444 23 551131 1906 1979 74 0.988 0.358 -0.118 2.668 0.261 0.642 24 551132 1912 1979 68 0.998 0.360 -0.203 2.809 0.373 0.251 25 551141 1904 1978 75 0.997 0.521 0.663 3.660 0.341 0.617 26 551142 1900 1977 78 1.000 0.473 0.800 3.153 0.329 0.635 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 69 0.986 0.446 0.676 4.084 0.361 0.454 STANDARD DEVIATION 6 0.014 0.081 0.529 1.950 0.064 0.214 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 68 0.990 0.430 0.634 3.668 0.347 0.474 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 9 0.023 0.125 0.798 1.192 0.081 0.300 MINIMUM VALUE 56 0.949 0.295 -0.203 2.350 0.261 0.014 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 65 0.974 0.390 0.325 2.985 0.316 0.332 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 74 0.997 0.515 1.123 4.177 0.397 0.632 MAXIMUM VALUE 79 1.001 0.636 1.931 12.269 0.498 0.754 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 551011 -67 37 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 551012 -67 48 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 551021 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 551022 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 551041 -67 41 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 551042 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 551051 -67 38 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 551052 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 551061 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 551062 -67 51 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 551071 -67 45 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 551072 -67 47 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 551081 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 551082 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 551091 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 551092 -67 43 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 551101 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 551102 -67 52 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 551111 -67 48 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 551112 -67 49 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 551121 -67 43 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 551122 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 551131 -67 49 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 551132 -67 45 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 551141 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 551142 -67 52 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 551011 1914 1969 56 0.988 0.389 0.422 3.908 0.291 0.522 2 551012 1902 1973 72 0.990 0.371 0.745 3.686 0.325 0.366 3 551021 1914 1979 66 0.973 0.445 0.931 5.116 0.315 0.556 4 551022 1916 1979 64 0.990 0.407 1.201 6.182 0.314 0.546 5 551041 1918 1979 62 0.995 0.360 0.369 3.224 0.388 -0.147 6 551042 1919 1978 60 0.974 0.398 0.495 4.891 0.430 0.068 7 551051 1917 1974 58 0.986 0.392 0.746 4.514 0.441 -0.109 8 551052 1915 1974 60 0.975 0.365 1.268 6.440 0.337 0.039 9 551061 1905 1979 75 0.989 0.469 0.523 2.655 0.471 0.170 10 551062 1903 1979 77 0.992 0.432 0.638 3.570 0.499 -0.031 11 551071 1910 1977 68 0.998 0.245 0.760 3.824 0.285 -0.114 12 551072 1909 1979 71 0.997 0.376 1.298 5.283 0.367 -0.015 13 551081 1909 1975 67 0.993 0.369 0.529 3.200 0.350 0.279 14 551082 1910 1979 70 0.997 0.398 0.214 3.150 0.404 0.071 15 551091 1907 1973 67 1.004 0.439 2.662 12.310 0.290 0.407 16 551092 1913 1977 65 1.000 0.357 0.393 4.873 0.363 -0.004 17 551101 1904 1979 76 0.997 0.513 1.858 9.642 0.478 0.025 18 551102 1901 1979 79 0.997 0.439 2.595 16.600 0.397 -0.029 19 551111 1907 1979 73 0.996 0.358 1.077 5.123 0.369 0.196 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 551112 1906 1979 74 0.996 0.412 1.986 8.965 0.341 0.202 21 551121 1915 1979 65 0.987 0.256 -0.437 3.963 0.284 0.062 22 551122 1913 1979 67 0.997 0.339 0.258 3.892 0.317 0.324 23 551131 1906 1979 74 0.995 0.274 0.409 4.303 0.261 0.184 24 551132 1912 1979 68 0.996 0.350 0.238 3.504 0.374 -0.017 25 551141 1904 1978 75 0.993 0.450 0.599 4.762 0.340 0.410 26 551142 1900 1977 78 0.990 0.391 0.515 3.176 0.329 0.484 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 69 0.992 0.384 0.857 5.414 0.360 0.171 STANDARD DEVIATION 6 0.008 0.062 0.731 3.192 0.064 0.220 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 68 0.994 0.390 0.618 4.408 0.345 0.121 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 9 0.008 0.074 0.792 1.713 0.082 0.381 MINIMUM VALUE 56 0.973 0.245 -0.437 2.655 0.261 -0.147 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 65 0.989 0.358 0.409 3.570 0.315 -0.015 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 74 0.997 0.432 1.201 5.283 0.397 0.366 MAXIMUM VALUE 79 1.004 0.513 2.662 16.600 0.499 0.556 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.253 0.176 0.010 0.215 3.086 -0.201 0.807 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.201 SERIES 551091 AND 551141 67 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.807 SERIES 551101 AND 551102 76 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 80.24 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1900 1979 80 0.982 0.203 -0.245 4.122 0.233 -0.019 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.258 0.178 0.121 33 47 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.19 0.29 1.00 1.06 1.36 3.26 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.05 0.00 0.89 0.94 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.019 0.155 0.153 -0.085 -0.122 -0.080 -0.260 -0.082 -0.275 0.014 PACF -0.019 0.154 0.163 -0.105 -0.189 -0.092 -0.202 -0.041 -0.233 0.046 95% C.L. 0.224 0.224 0.229 0.234 0.236 0.239 0.240 0.254 0.255 0.269 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.054 0.131 0.189 -0.183 -0.128 -0.151 -0.297 -0.126 -0.239 -0.043 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.054 2 0.047 0.129 3 0.024 0.120 0.179 4 0.064 0.147 0.185 -0.225 5 0.026 0.179 0.210 -0.213 -0.173 6 0.002 0.151 0.238 -0.189 -0.170 -0.134 7 -0.024 0.117 0.201 -0.142 -0.140 -0.134 -0.197 8 -0.039 0.107 0.191 -0.153 -0.125 -0.125 -0.199 -0.074 9 -0.054 0.066 0.165 -0.179 -0.157 -0.085 -0.176 -0.082 -0.209 10 -0.056 0.065 0.163 -0.180 -0.158 -0.087 -0.175 -0.081 -0.209 -0.008 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 600.63 602.39 603.05 602.44 600.30 599.87 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 600.41 599.25 600.82 599.24 601.24 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 5 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.026 0.179 0.210 -0.213 -0.173 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 12.58 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 114.39 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 5) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.026 0.180 0.219 -0.170 -0.106 -0.030 -0.133 -0.033 0.021 -.0087 0.030 0.034 0.006 0.011 0.003 -0.009 -0.004 -0.004 -0.005 -.0005 0.001 0.000 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -.0003 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 551011 5 0.398 0.535 -0.016 0.056 -0.007 -0.246 2 551012 5 0.230 0.338 0.170 -0.109 -0.003 -0.098 3 551021 5 0.426 0.581 0.067 -0.168 -0.109 0.106 4 551022 5 0.371 0.608 -0.099 -0.037 -0.093 -0.002 5 551041 5 0.062 -0.167 -0.131 0.018 -0.086 -0.113 6 551042 5 0.167 0.020 0.225 0.231 -0.047 -0.145 7 551051 5 0.128 -0.131 0.083 -0.204 -0.241 0.000 8 551052 5 0.220 0.163 0.077 0.198 -0.361 0.209 9 551061 5 0.094 0.160 0.099 0.169 -0.170 -0.025 10 551062 5 0.135 -0.016 0.189 0.265 -0.190 -0.001 11 551071 5 0.096 -0.089 0.023 0.021 -0.263 0.055 12 551072 5 0.214 0.027 0.130 0.306 -0.308 -0.106 13 551081 5 0.193 0.273 0.135 -0.043 0.171 -0.193 14 551082 5 0.210 0.098 -0.112 0.020 0.044 -0.420 15 551091 5 0.268 0.549 -0.267 -0.099 0.207 -0.110 16 551092 5 0.160 -0.015 -0.259 -0.027 0.180 0.028 17 551101 5 0.088 0.054 -0.185 0.040 -0.211 0.096 18 551102 5 0.009 -0.027 -0.037 0.027 -0.073 0.004 19 551111 5 0.088 0.167 0.092 0.049 -0.064 -0.183 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 551112 5 0.089 0.226 0.021 -0.065 0.026 -0.176 21 551121 5 0.088 0.016 0.031 0.190 0.096 0.108 22 551122 5 0.405 0.229 0.337 0.044 0.040 -0.362 23 551131 5 0.092 0.169 -0.027 -0.129 -0.142 -0.049 24 551132 5 0.029 -0.006 0.125 -0.055 0.004 -0.066 25 551141 5 0.264 0.345 0.169 -0.133 -0.092 -0.164 26 551142 5 0.322 0.380 0.195 0.024 -0.039 -0.257 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 5 0.186 0.173 0.040 0.023 -0.067 -0.081 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.120 0.224 0.149 0.135 0.146 0.148 MEDIAN 5 0.163 0.161 0.072 0.020 -0.069 -0.082 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.175 0.344 0.172 0.121 0.195 0.180 MINIMUM VALUE 5 0.009 -0.167 -0.267 -0.204 -0.361 -0.420 LOWER HINGE 5 0.089 -0.006 -0.037 -0.065 -0.170 -0.176 UPPER HINGE 5 0.264 0.338 0.135 0.056 0.026 0.004 MAXIMUM VALUE 5 0.426 0.608 0.337 0.306 0.207 0.209 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 551011 1914 1969 56 1.002 0.304 -0.216 4.419 0.323 -0.016 2 551012 1902 1973 72 1.000 0.335 0.653 4.437 0.364 -0.023 3 551021 1914 1979 66 1.000 0.359 0.150 4.824 0.402 0.039 4 551022 1916 1979 64 1.000 0.333 0.922 5.275 0.378 0.001 5 551041 1918 1979 62 1.000 0.349 0.131 3.039 0.383 -0.008 6 551042 1919 1978 60 1.001 0.373 0.730 5.768 0.410 -0.038 7 551051 1917 1974 58 1.000 0.369 0.116 3.740 0.431 -0.008 8 551052 1915 1974 60 1.000 0.322 1.084 5.388 0.329 0.018 9 551061 1905 1979 75 1.000 0.447 0.427 2.940 0.506 -0.004 10 551062 1903 1979 77 1.000 0.399 0.362 3.205 0.455 -0.001 11 551071 1910 1977 68 1.000 0.232 0.625 4.302 0.260 0.005 12 551072 1909 1979 71 1.000 0.335 1.331 7.599 0.377 -0.003 13 551081 1909 1975 67 1.000 0.339 -0.183 3.871 0.393 -0.038 14 551082 1910 1979 70 1.000 0.355 0.096 2.907 0.382 0.054 15 551091 1907 1973 67 1.000 0.376 2.164 9.418 0.374 0.004 16 551092 1913 1977 65 1.000 0.333 0.140 3.231 0.361 0.047 17 551101 1904 1979 76 1.000 0.493 1.761 8.779 0.499 -0.007 18 551102 1901 1979 79 1.000 0.437 2.377 15.496 0.394 0.001 19 551111 1907 1979 73 1.000 0.342 0.864 4.445 0.401 -0.006 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 551112 1906 1979 74 1.000 0.393 1.945 8.900 0.374 0.018 21 551121 1915 1979 65 1.000 0.247 -0.286 4.349 0.272 0.024 22 551122 1913 1979 67 1.000 0.279 -0.186 3.308 0.320 -0.108 23 551131 1906 1979 74 1.000 0.262 0.450 4.175 0.272 0.022 24 551132 1912 1979 68 1.000 0.345 0.161 3.916 0.378 -0.015 25 551141 1904 1978 75 1.000 0.385 0.497 4.194 0.370 0.016 26 551142 1900 1977 78 1.000 0.321 0.323 3.176 0.363 -0.011 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 69 1.000 0.349 0.632 5.196 0.376 -0.001 STANDARD DEVIATION 6 0.000 0.059 0.745 2.815 0.059 0.031 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 68 1.000 0.343 0.439 4.325 0.378 -0.002 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 9 0.000 0.054 0.791 2.080 0.040 0.029 MINIMUM VALUE 56 1.000 0.232 -0.286 2.907 0.260 -0.108 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 65 1.000 0.322 0.131 3.308 0.361 -0.011 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 74 1.000 0.376 0.922 5.388 0.401 0.018 MAXIMUM VALUE 79 1.002 0.493 2.377 15.496 0.506 0.054 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.249 0.162 0.009 0.302 2.926 -0.102 0.800 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.102 SERIES 551022 AND 551092 62 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.800 SERIES 551101 AND 551102 76 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 80.24 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1900 1979 80 0.992 0.185 -0.057 3.494 0.232 -0.217 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.264 0.167 0.107 30 50 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.21 0.40 1.00 1.13 1.54 29.90 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.07 0.00 0.87 0.95 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.214 0.100 0.110 -0.027 -0.122 -0.017 -0.175 -0.028 -0.233 0.042 PACF -0.214 0.057 0.149 0.021 -0.159 -0.100 -0.182 -0.062 -0.237 -0.042 95% C.L. 0.224 0.234 0.236 0.238 0.238 0.242 0.242 0.248 0.248 0.259 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.053 -0.219 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.035 -0.009 0.015 -0.019 -0.011 -0.047 -0.108 -0.076 -0.260 0.087 PACF -0.035 -0.011 0.014 -0.018 -0.012 -0.048 -0.112 -0.087 -0.275 0.058 95% C.L. 0.224 0.224 0.224 0.224 0.224 0.224 0.225 0.227 0.228 0.243 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.005 -0.036 -0.009 0.014 -0.021 -0.012 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1900 1979 80 0.991 0.188 -0.410 4.237 0.215 0.059 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.058 0.148 0.204 -0.171 -0.106 -0.162 -0.288 -0.137 -0.275 -0.014 PACF 0.058 0.145 0.193 -0.220 -0.162 -0.150 -0.185 -0.075 -0.224 0.046 95% C.L. 0.224 0.224 0.229 0.238 0.244 0.246 0.252 0.268 0.271 0.285 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.27 MINUTES