RUN: SWIT001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWIT150P.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWIT150P.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 551 1 Wylewald BE, Tanne abst. LATEWOOD_PERCENT ABAL - 551 2 Switzerland silver fir, European fir 570 4701-729 1900 1979 - 551 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 551011 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1967 1967 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 2 551012 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1967 1967 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 551021 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1968 1968 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 551081 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1971 1971 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 551091 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1963 1963 / 1968 1968 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 20 551112 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1919 1919 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 551011 1914 1969 56 2.588 1.066 1.352 5.755 0.320 0.489 2 551012 1902 1973 72 2.846 1.011 0.897 3.828 0.267 0.532 3 551021 1914 1979 66 3.484 1.100 1.086 4.772 0.275 0.298 4 551022 1916 1979 64 3.192 0.952 0.290 2.372 0.271 0.415 5 551041 1918 1979 62 3.044 0.922 0.828 4.233 0.339 -0.224 6 551042 1919 1978 60 3.191 1.111 -0.055 2.678 0.348 0.284 7 551051 1917 1974 58 2.244 0.883 0.540 3.156 0.426 0.002 8 551052 1915 1974 60 2.456 0.874 0.586 2.506 0.313 0.295 9 551061 1905 1979 75 1.992 1.082 1.238 4.736 0.478 0.478 10 551062 1903 1979 77 1.892 0.887 0.707 3.290 0.476 0.280 11 551071 1910 1977 68 2.812 0.747 0.290 2.495 0.306 0.109 12 551072 1909 1979 71 2.910 0.906 1.265 4.919 0.357 0.010 13 551081 1909 1975 67 2.468 0.815 0.288 2.309 0.288 0.383 14 551082 1910 1979 70 2.629 0.901 -0.128 2.915 0.316 0.177 15 551091 1907 1973 67 3.206 1.107 1.116 5.387 0.263 0.427 16 551092 1913 1977 65 3.503 1.104 0.051 4.070 0.273 0.352 17 551101 1904 1979 76 2.509 1.245 1.132 4.907 0.449 0.115 18 551102 1901 1979 79 2.599 1.121 1.138 4.220 0.369 0.122 19 551111 1907 1979 73 2.248 0.817 0.907 3.198 0.365 0.157 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 551112 1906 1979 74 2.697 0.896 0.938 3.774 0.302 0.267 21 551121 1915 1979 65 3.237 0.779 0.542 4.014 0.228 0.345 22 551122 1913 1979 67 3.305 1.120 0.681 3.259 0.255 0.568 23 551131 1906 1979 74 4.011 0.676 -0.602 2.726 0.179 0.105 24 551132 1912 1979 68 3.742 0.988 0.725 3.288 0.249 0.040 25 551141 1904 1978 75 3.235 0.888 0.641 2.869 0.259 0.224 26 551142 1900 1977 78 3.432 0.930 1.108 4.278 0.239 0.310 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 26 FROM 1900 TO 1979 80 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 68 2.903 0.959 0.676 3.691 0.316 0.252 STANDARD DEVIATION 6 0.535 0.139 0.489 0.987 0.076 0.187 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 68 2.878 0.926 0.716 3.532 0.304 0.282 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 9 0.728 0.218 0.818 1.410 0.093 0.268 MINIMUM VALUE 55 1.892 0.676 -0.602 2.309 0.179 -0.224 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 65 2.509 0.883 0.290 2.869 0.263 0.115 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 74 3.237 1.100 1.108 4.278 0.357 0.383 MAXIMUM VALUE 79 4.011 1.245 1.352 5.755 0.478 0.568 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.340 0.169 0.009 0.194 2.508 -0.027 0.821 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.027 SERIES 551022 AND 551092 62 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.821 SERIES 551101 AND 551102 76 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 80.24 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1900 1979 80 2.851 0.639 0.499 2.749 0.221 0.229 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.466 0.223 0.284 20 60 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.14 0.14 1.02 1.09 1.23 3.86 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.06 0.00 0.87 0.92 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 68. 9. 56. 65. 74. 79. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.226 0.513 0.273 0.306 0.251 0.301 0.167 0.279 0.067 0.209 PACF 0.226 0.487 0.142 0.028 0.048 0.136 -0.042 0.062 -0.114 0.019 95% C.L. 0.224 0.235 0.285 0.298 0.313 0.323 0.337 0.341 0.352 0.353 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.297 0.116 0.497 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 551011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.03266652 1.68265355 2 551012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02253857 2.04683590 3 551021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02891443 2.50278521 4 551022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00244689 3.27139878 5 551041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01146156 2.68299317 6 551042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01029203 2.87725997 7 551051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00795257 2.00902009 8 551052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01324312 2.05241823 9 551061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01007283 1.60963237 10 551062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00402019 1.73568010 11 551071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00551075 2.62149692 12 551072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01323508 2.43395972 13 551081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02610651 1.59759593 14 551082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01865961 1.96629810 15 551091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02505340 2.37315488 16 551092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02274301 2.75255775 17 551101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02493575 1.54878950 18 551102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02617916 1.55144107 19 551111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01651055 1.63691783 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 551112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02354158 1.79777002 21 551121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02155157 2.52572131 22 551122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.03980445 1.95202172 23 551131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00116090 4.05474997 24 551132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02219701 2.97640920 25 551141 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00362987 3.09699821 26 551142 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01343492 2.90085912 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 551011 1914 1969 56 1.005 0.359 0.895 4.150 0.308 0.325 2 551012 1902 1973 72 1.004 0.319 0.395 2.700 0.260 0.519 3 551021 1914 1979 66 0.999 0.257 0.366 2.771 0.273 0.048 4 551022 1916 1979 64 1.000 0.299 0.317 2.388 0.267 0.408 5 551041 1918 1979 62 1.000 0.289 0.511 3.242 0.333 -0.243 6 551042 1919 1978 60 1.000 0.335 -0.246 2.802 0.342 0.234 7 551051 1917 1974 58 1.000 0.378 0.295 2.839 0.419 -0.020 8 551052 1915 1974 60 1.000 0.335 0.496 3.101 0.308 0.232 9 551061 1905 1979 75 0.999 0.538 1.247 4.590 0.472 0.438 10 551062 1903 1979 77 1.000 0.466 0.675 3.195 0.469 0.284 11 551071 1910 1977 68 1.000 0.262 0.257 2.623 0.301 0.055 12 551072 1909 1979 71 1.001 0.290 0.725 3.203 0.352 -0.105 13 551081 1909 1975 67 1.001 0.278 1.031 4.873 0.277 0.112 14 551082 1910 1979 70 0.999 0.303 -0.334 3.505 0.312 0.089 15 551091 1907 1973 67 0.999 0.290 0.402 4.139 0.276 0.167 16 551092 1913 1977 65 0.999 0.269 -0.760 4.699 0.269 0.210 17 551101 1904 1979 76 1.004 0.406 0.299 3.496 0.442 -0.024 18 551102 1901 1979 79 1.005 0.361 1.400 7.784 0.365 -0.019 19 551111 1907 1979 73 1.001 0.315 0.377 2.494 0.360 0.003 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 551112 1906 1979 74 0.999 0.259 0.258 2.756 0.298 0.006 21 551121 1915 1979 65 1.001 0.207 0.261 3.056 0.226 0.125 22 551122 1913 1979 67 0.999 0.232 0.084 2.732 0.250 0.170 23 551131 1906 1979 74 1.000 0.169 -0.541 2.662 0.176 0.099 24 551132 1912 1979 68 1.000 0.220 -0.340 2.939 0.246 -0.111 25 551141 1904 1978 75 1.000 0.271 0.512 2.661 0.255 0.209 26 551142 1900 1977 78 1.000 0.249 0.685 3.259 0.236 0.245 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 69 1.001 0.306 0.356 3.410 0.311 0.133 STANDARD DEVIATION 6 0.002 0.079 0.511 1.134 0.075 0.179 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 68 1.000 0.290 0.371 3.079 0.299 0.118 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 9 0.001 0.077 0.418 0.773 0.091 0.231 MINIMUM VALUE 56 0.999 0.169 -0.760 2.388 0.176 -0.243 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 65 0.999 0.259 0.257 2.732 0.260 0.003 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 74 1.001 0.335 0.675 3.505 0.352 0.234 MAXIMUM VALUE 79 1.005 0.538 1.400 7.784 0.472 0.519 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 551011 -67 37 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 551012 -67 48 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 551021 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 551022 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 551041 -67 41 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 551042 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 551051 -67 38 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 551052 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 551061 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 551062 -67 51 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 551071 -67 45 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 551072 -67 47 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 551081 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 551082 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 551091 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 551092 -67 43 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 551101 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 551102 -67 52 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 551111 -67 48 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 551112 -67 49 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 551121 -67 43 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 551122 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 551131 -67 49 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 551132 -67 45 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 551141 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 551142 -67 52 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 551011 1914 1969 56 0.997 0.327 0.950 4.329 0.307 0.262 2 551012 1902 1973 72 0.993 0.253 0.773 4.367 0.260 0.262 3 551021 1914 1979 66 0.998 0.238 0.281 2.848 0.273 -0.086 4 551022 1916 1979 64 0.997 0.274 0.513 2.654 0.266 0.282 5 551041 1918 1979 62 0.999 0.285 0.693 3.728 0.333 -0.301 6 551042 1919 1978 60 0.992 0.301 -0.079 3.014 0.339 0.032 7 551051 1917 1974 58 0.995 0.367 0.765 3.612 0.418 -0.148 8 551052 1915 1974 60 0.994 0.296 0.281 2.926 0.308 0.092 9 551061 1905 1979 75 0.994 0.488 0.930 3.934 0.472 0.334 10 551062 1903 1979 77 0.995 0.428 0.392 2.802 0.469 0.190 11 551071 1910 1977 68 0.997 0.244 0.328 2.773 0.302 -0.078 12 551072 1909 1979 71 0.999 0.253 0.413 2.813 0.352 -0.377 13 551081 1909 1975 67 0.997 0.250 0.560 3.870 0.277 -0.010 14 551082 1910 1979 70 0.998 0.294 -0.340 3.517 0.312 0.008 15 551091 1907 1973 67 0.999 0.291 0.605 4.355 0.275 0.157 16 551092 1913 1977 65 0.998 0.266 -0.576 5.031 0.269 0.166 17 551101 1904 1979 76 0.996 0.380 0.242 3.529 0.441 -0.134 18 551102 1901 1979 79 0.997 0.312 0.635 4.229 0.364 -0.241 19 551111 1907 1979 73 0.999 0.307 0.481 2.755 0.361 -0.014 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 551112 1906 1979 74 0.999 0.248 0.182 2.766 0.297 -0.072 21 551121 1915 1979 65 0.999 0.196 0.271 2.806 0.225 0.041 22 551122 1913 1979 67 0.999 0.224 -0.018 2.761 0.250 0.093 23 551131 1906 1979 74 0.999 0.157 -0.224 2.828 0.176 -0.115 24 551132 1912 1979 68 0.999 0.215 -0.455 3.096 0.246 -0.132 25 551141 1904 1978 75 0.998 0.257 0.728 3.439 0.255 0.107 26 551142 1900 1977 78 0.997 0.229 0.675 3.828 0.236 0.165 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 69 0.997 0.284 0.346 3.408 0.311 0.019 STANDARD DEVIATION 6 0.002 0.071 0.417 0.671 0.075 0.184 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 68 0.998 0.270 0.402 3.267 0.300 0.020 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 9 0.003 0.062 0.493 1.065 0.092 0.280 MINIMUM VALUE 56 0.992 0.157 -0.576 2.654 0.176 -0.377 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 65 0.996 0.244 0.182 2.806 0.260 -0.115 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 74 0.999 0.307 0.675 3.870 0.352 0.165 MAXIMUM VALUE 79 0.999 0.488 0.950 5.031 0.472 0.334 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.314 0.149 0.008 0.248 3.073 -0.107 0.729 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.107 SERIES 551022 AND 551092 62 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.729 SERIES 551061 AND 551062 75 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 80.24 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1900 1979 80 0.994 0.165 0.088 2.805 0.209 -0.151 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.346 0.204 0.031 33 47 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.37 0.53 1.03 1.10 1.63 3.56 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.05 0.00 0.88 0.93 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.149 0.221 -0.110 -0.053 -0.056 0.006 -0.197 0.028 -0.282 -0.078 PACF -0.149 0.203 -0.057 -0.125 -0.045 0.028 -0.206 -0.045 -0.232 -0.210 95% C.L. 0.224 0.229 0.239 0.241 0.242 0.243 0.243 0.251 0.251 0.266 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.071 -0.118 0.213 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.068 0.206 -0.032 -0.091 -0.042 -0.022 -0.166 -0.067 -0.274 -0.134 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 -0.068 2 -0.054 0.202 3 -0.052 0.202 -0.008 4 -0.053 0.230 -0.015 -0.142 5 -0.060 0.230 -0.004 -0.144 -0.049 6 -0.059 0.233 -0.004 -0.150 -0.048 0.024 7 -0.055 0.225 -0.028 -0.150 -0.010 0.014 -0.162 8 -0.073 0.227 -0.029 -0.167 -0.013 0.039 -0.168 -0.110 9 -0.100 0.186 -0.020 -0.170 -0.054 0.032 -0.112 -0.128 -0.247 10 -0.144 0.163 -0.039 -0.165 -0.064 0.002 -0.115 -0.096 -0.265 -0.177 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 567.30 568.94 567.59 569.59 569.97 571.77 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 573.73 573.60 574.62 571.57 571.03 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 0 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 551011 0 0.074 2 551012 0 0.071 3 551021 0 0.008 4 551022 0 0.082 5 551041 0 0.093 6 551042 0 0.001 7 551051 0 0.024 8 551052 0 0.010 9 551061 0 0.115 10 551062 0 0.036 11 551071 0 0.006 12 551072 0 0.144 13 551081 0 0.000 14 551082 0 0.000 15 551091 0 0.026 16 551092 0 0.028 17 551101 0 0.018 18 551102 0 0.058 19 551111 0 0.000 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 551112 0 0.005 21 551121 0 0.002 22 551122 0 0.009 23 551131 0 0.013 24 551132 0 0.018 25 551141 0 0.012 26 551142 0 0.028 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 0 0.034 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.039 MEDIAN 0 0.018 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.052 MINIMUM VALUE 0 0.000 LOWER HINGE 0 0.006 UPPER HINGE 0 0.058 MAXIMUM VALUE 0 0.144 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 551011 1914 1969 56 1.000 0.327 0.950 4.329 0.305 0.262 2 551012 1902 1973 72 1.000 0.253 0.773 4.367 0.258 0.262 3 551021 1914 1979 66 1.000 0.238 0.281 2.848 0.273 -0.086 4 551022 1916 1979 64 1.000 0.274 0.513 2.654 0.265 0.282 5 551041 1918 1979 62 1.000 0.285 0.693 3.728 0.333 -0.301 6 551042 1919 1978 60 1.000 0.301 -0.079 3.014 0.336 0.032 7 551051 1917 1974 58 1.000 0.367 0.765 3.612 0.416 -0.148 8 551052 1915 1974 60 1.000 0.296 0.281 2.926 0.306 0.092 9 551061 1905 1979 75 1.000 0.488 0.930 3.934 0.469 0.334 10 551062 1903 1979 77 1.000 0.428 0.392 2.802 0.466 0.190 11 551071 1910 1977 68 1.000 0.244 0.328 2.773 0.301 -0.078 12 551072 1909 1979 71 1.000 0.253 0.413 2.813 0.351 -0.377 13 551081 1909 1975 67 1.000 0.250 0.560 3.870 0.276 -0.010 14 551082 1910 1979 70 1.000 0.294 -0.340 3.517 0.311 0.008 15 551091 1907 1973 67 1.000 0.291 0.605 4.355 0.275 0.157 16 551092 1913 1977 65 1.000 0.266 -0.576 5.031 0.269 0.166 17 551101 1904 1979 76 1.000 0.380 0.242 3.529 0.439 -0.134 18 551102 1901 1979 79 1.000 0.312 0.635 4.229 0.363 -0.241 19 551111 1907 1979 73 1.000 0.307 0.481 2.755 0.360 -0.014 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 551112 1906 1979 74 1.000 0.248 0.182 2.766 0.297 -0.072 21 551121 1915 1979 65 1.000 0.196 0.271 2.806 0.225 0.041 22 551122 1913 1979 67 1.000 0.224 -0.018 2.761 0.250 0.093 23 551131 1906 1979 74 1.000 0.157 -0.224 2.828 0.175 -0.115 24 551132 1912 1979 68 1.000 0.215 -0.455 3.096 0.245 -0.132 25 551141 1904 1978 75 1.000 0.257 0.728 3.439 0.254 0.107 26 551142 1900 1977 78 1.000 0.229 0.676 3.828 0.235 0.165 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 69 1.000 0.284 0.346 3.408 0.310 0.019 STANDARD DEVIATION 6 0.000 0.071 0.417 0.671 0.074 0.184 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 68 1.000 0.270 0.402 3.267 0.299 0.020 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 9 0.000 0.062 0.493 1.065 0.094 0.280 MINIMUM VALUE 56 1.000 0.157 -0.576 2.654 0.175 -0.377 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 65 1.000 0.244 0.182 2.806 0.258 -0.115 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 74 1.000 0.307 0.676 3.870 0.351 0.165 MAXIMUM VALUE 79 1.000 0.488 0.950 5.031 0.469 0.334 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.314 0.149 0.008 0.248 3.073 -0.107 0.729 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.107 SERIES 551022 AND 551092 62 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.729 SERIES 551061 AND 551062 75 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 80.24 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1900 1979 80 0.997 0.165 0.083 2.808 0.208 -0.150 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.348 0.205 0.029 33 47 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.35 0.54 1.03 1.09 1.64 3.49 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.05 0.00 0.88 0.93 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.148 0.221 -0.110 -0.052 -0.057 0.006 -0.197 0.027 -0.282 -0.078 PACF -0.148 0.204 -0.058 -0.124 -0.045 0.028 -0.206 -0.045 -0.232 -0.209 95% C.L. 0.224 0.228 0.239 0.241 0.242 0.243 0.243 0.251 0.251 0.266 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.071 -0.117 0.214 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1900 1979 80 0.997 0.165 0.083 2.808 0.208 -0.150 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.148 0.221 -0.110 -0.052 -0.057 0.006 -0.197 0.027 -0.282 -0.078 PACF -0.148 0.204 -0.058 -0.124 -0.045 0.028 -0.206 -0.045 -0.232 -0.209 95% C.L. 0.224 0.228 0.239 0.241 0.242 0.243 0.243 0.251 0.251 0.266 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.071 -0.117 0.214 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.25 MINUTES