RUN: SWIT004 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWIT151L.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWIT151L.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 20 10 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 551 1 Wylewald BE, Tanne gesun WIDTH_LATE ABAL - 551 2 Switzerland silver fir, European fir 570 4701-729 1885 1979 - 551 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 17 551241 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 8 IN 1 GAPS / 1917 1924 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 551161 1892 1979 88 0.525 0.266 0.574 2.762 0.370 0.542 2 551162 1892 1979 88 0.549 0.256 0.054 2.502 0.465 0.266 3 551171 1885 1979 95 0.501 0.260 1.644 5.916 0.367 0.489 4 551172 1901 1979 79 0.542 0.231 0.961 3.771 0.363 0.336 5 551181 1909 1979 71 0.780 0.390 3.615 19.942 0.339 0.067 6 551182 1909 1979 71 0.585 0.200 0.469 2.749 0.311 0.273 7 551191 1902 1979 78 0.686 0.295 -0.044 2.831 0.322 0.636 8 551192 1900 1979 80 0.718 0.358 0.302 2.366 0.366 0.624 9 551201 1925 1979 55 0.885 0.540 0.931 4.159 0.446 0.556 10 551202 1924 1979 56 0.654 0.293 -0.216 2.505 0.405 0.602 11 551211 1906 1979 74 0.637 0.321 1.427 5.660 0.357 0.490 12 551212 1909 1979 71 0.752 0.530 2.882 11.432 0.403 0.547 13 551221 1909 1979 71 0.655 0.295 0.441 3.434 0.336 0.663 14 551222 1912 1979 68 0.832 0.571 1.772 5.777 0.393 0.660 15 551231 1908 1979 72 1.005 0.510 0.767 3.183 0.321 0.716 16 551232 1907 1979 73 0.909 0.453 0.813 2.738 0.303 0.653 17 551241 1912 1979 68 0.788 0.366 0.001 3.053 0.481 0.412 18 551242 1907 1979 73 0.743 0.361 0.631 3.147 0.407 0.585 19 551251 1941 1979 39 0.916 0.369 0.673 3.662 0.452 0.295 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 551252 1928 1979 52 0.611 0.250 1.337 4.984 0.398 0.131 21 551261 1915 1979 65 0.991 0.385 -0.211 3.081 0.303 0.604 22 551262 1911 1979 69 0.852 0.299 -0.058 4.697 0.335 0.383 23 551271 1914 1979 66 0.765 0.382 1.953 8.141 0.414 0.288 24 551272 1905 1979 75 0.951 0.532 2.101 7.646 0.320 0.421 25 551281 1908 1979 72 0.578 0.413 2.610 10.903 0.478 0.378 26 551282 1904 1979 76 0.532 0.264 0.775 3.438 0.502 0.079 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 26 FROM 1885 TO 1979 95 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 71 0.729 0.361 1.008 5.172 0.383 0.450 STANDARD DEVIATION 11 0.155 0.106 1.002 3.898 0.060 0.189 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 71 0.731 0.359 0.771 3.550 0.369 0.490 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 10 0.267 0.147 1.342 2.945 0.079 0.309 MINIMUM VALUE 39 0.501 0.200 -0.216 2.366 0.303 0.067 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 66 0.585 0.266 0.302 2.831 0.335 0.295 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 76 0.852 0.413 1.644 5.777 0.414 0.604 MAXIMUM VALUE 95 1.005 0.571 3.615 19.942 0.502 0.716 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.178 0.259 0.014 -0.019 2.483 -0.515 0.748 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.515 SERIES 551171 AND 551261 65 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.748 SERIES 551191 AND 551192 78 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 68.14 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. CORR 6. 136. 231. 300. 300. 325. 325. RBAR 0.126 0.155 0.290 0.121 0.189 0.132 0.217 SDEV 0.438 0.318 0.258 0.302 0.359 0.304 0.303 SERR 0.179 0.027 0.017 0.017 0.021 0.017 0.017 EPS 0.677 0.801 0.908 0.777 0.858 0.798 0.878 NSS 14.6 22.0 24.1 25.5 26.0 26.0 26.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1885 1979 95 0.639 0.188 0.108 2.718 0.250 0.378 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.724 0.612 -0.130 38 57 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.31 0.84 1.01 1.12 1.95 3.65 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.10 0.00 0.86 0.96 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 72. 8. 39. 68. 76. 95. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.374 0.444 0.266 0.304 0.203 0.300 0.169 0.279 0.103 0.232 PACF 0.374 0.353 0.036 0.101 0.011 0.148 -0.028 0.109 -0.092 0.087 95% C.L. 0.205 0.232 0.266 0.277 0.290 0.296 0.309 0.313 0.323 0.324 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.267 0.243 0.371 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 551161 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00030177 0.53808779 2 551162 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00312238 0.68815047 3 551171 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00273838 0.36982083 4 551172 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00250755 0.44147030 5 551181 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00704997 0.52662373 6 551182 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00173139 0.52245873 7 551191 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00442608 0.86111224 8 551192 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00479993 0.91277212 9 551201 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.02341126 1.54096973 10 551202 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00327034 0.74731171 11 551211 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00589604 0.41579044 12 551212 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00708652 0.49727967 13 551221 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00449363 0.81712270 14 551222 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00684430 0.59593064 15 551231 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00656264 0.76588029 16 551232 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00269129 1.00834477 17 551241 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00137905 0.80928653 18 551242 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00734913 1.01465750 19 551251 1 0.80180168 0.25635836 0.00000000 0.84554535 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 551252 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00010672 0.60832578 21 551261 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00931949 1.29877400 22 551262 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00520533 1.03392577 23 551271 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00838952 0.48440558 24 551272 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01499289 0.38120362 25 551281 1 1.85847485 0.34751928 0.00000000 0.51635706 26 551282 1 0.77915525 0.20360859 0.00000000 0.48657441 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 551161 1892 1979 88 1.000 0.510 0.613 2.825 0.366 0.530 2 551162 1892 1979 88 0.999 0.468 0.310 2.844 0.459 0.159 3 551171 1885 1979 95 1.003 0.457 0.826 3.781 0.363 0.452 4 551172 1901 1979 79 1.001 0.404 0.712 3.471 0.359 0.335 5 551181 1909 1979 71 1.002 0.398 2.283 12.608 0.336 -0.010 6 551182 1909 1979 71 1.000 0.332 0.363 2.678 0.307 0.252 7 551191 1902 1979 78 0.994 0.421 0.180 2.933 0.318 0.601 8 551192 1900 1979 80 0.993 0.483 0.464 2.614 0.362 0.537 9 551201 1925 1979 55 1.002 0.516 2.172 10.709 0.434 0.087 10 551202 1924 1979 56 1.000 0.455 -0.070 2.417 0.397 0.574 11 551211 1906 1979 74 1.001 0.405 0.321 3.561 0.352 0.438 12 551212 1909 1979 71 0.999 0.611 2.534 10.167 0.398 0.525 13 551221 1909 1979 71 0.996 0.437 0.469 3.371 0.331 0.595 14 551222 1912 1979 68 1.002 0.586 0.883 3.493 0.387 0.632 15 551231 1908 1979 72 0.996 0.488 0.840 3.285 0.317 0.711 16 551232 1907 1979 73 0.999 0.502 0.943 2.999 0.299 0.627 17 551241 1912 1979 68 1.000 0.473 0.166 2.946 0.468 0.401 18 551242 1907 1979 73 0.995 0.449 0.646 3.064 0.400 0.386 19 551251 1941 1979 39 1.000 0.366 0.093 2.458 0.441 0.103 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 551252 1928 1979 52 1.000 0.408 1.317 4.928 0.390 0.129 21 551261 1915 1979 65 1.001 0.420 1.535 8.253 0.299 0.439 22 551262 1911 1979 69 0.999 0.370 1.213 9.124 0.330 0.263 23 551271 1914 1979 66 1.004 0.413 0.862 4.176 0.408 0.245 24 551272 1905 1979 75 1.007 0.365 0.743 3.416 0.317 0.226 25 551281 1908 1979 72 1.000 0.677 3.583 19.259 0.468 0.217 26 551282 1904 1979 76 0.999 0.475 1.095 5.035 0.497 -0.143 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 71 1.000 0.457 0.965 5.247 0.377 0.358 STANDARD DEVIATION 11 0.003 0.079 0.854 4.066 0.058 0.222 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 71 1.000 0.452 0.784 3.443 0.365 0.394 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 8 0.002 0.083 0.850 2.102 0.078 0.320 MINIMUM VALUE 39 0.993 0.332 -0.070 2.417 0.299 -0.143 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 68 0.999 0.405 0.363 2.933 0.330 0.217 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 76 1.001 0.488 1.213 5.035 0.408 0.537 MAXIMUM VALUE 95 1.007 0.677 3.583 19.259 0.497 0.711 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 551161 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 551162 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 551171 -67 63 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 551172 -67 52 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 551181 -67 47 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 551182 -67 47 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 551191 -67 52 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 551192 -67 53 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 551201 -67 36 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 551202 -67 37 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 551211 -67 49 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 551212 -67 47 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 551221 -67 47 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 551222 -67 45 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 551231 -67 48 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 551232 -67 48 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 551241 -67 45 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 551242 -67 48 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 551251 -67 26 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 551252 -67 34 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 551261 -67 43 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 551262 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 551271 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 551272 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 551281 -67 48 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 551282 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 551161 1892 1979 88 0.982 0.470 1.269 5.688 0.365 0.297 2 551162 1892 1979 88 0.994 0.465 0.458 2.985 0.459 0.121 3 551171 1885 1979 95 0.989 0.390 0.666 4.123 0.363 0.334 4 551172 1901 1979 79 0.991 0.335 0.292 3.172 0.357 0.177 5 551181 1909 1979 71 0.995 0.355 1.700 9.029 0.334 -0.064 6 551182 1909 1979 71 0.998 0.324 0.494 3.215 0.307 0.159 7 551191 1902 1979 78 0.994 0.295 0.039 3.334 0.317 0.071 8 551192 1900 1979 80 0.993 0.384 1.513 7.082 0.364 0.021 9 551201 1925 1979 55 0.994 0.489 2.108 10.812 0.432 0.049 10 551202 1924 1979 56 0.989 0.430 -0.130 2.551 0.397 0.526 11 551211 1906 1979 74 0.984 0.353 0.064 3.210 0.353 0.348 12 551212 1909 1979 71 0.987 0.552 2.367 9.768 0.397 0.469 13 551221 1909 1979 71 0.990 0.339 -0.146 3.019 0.331 0.238 14 551222 1912 1979 68 0.952 0.417 0.395 3.244 0.387 0.458 15 551231 1908 1979 72 0.985 0.351 0.560 2.842 0.316 0.294 16 551232 1907 1979 73 0.987 0.423 1.636 6.774 0.294 0.439 17 551241 1912 1979 68 0.993 0.406 0.388 3.997 0.468 -0.273 18 551242 1907 1979 73 0.989 0.386 0.571 3.894 0.401 0.048 19 551251 1941 1979 39 0.992 0.330 -0.198 2.385 0.438 -0.128 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 551252 1928 1979 52 0.996 0.394 1.314 4.930 0.388 0.096 21 551261 1915 1979 65 0.990 0.334 0.025 3.729 0.297 0.396 22 551262 1911 1979 69 0.996 0.370 1.891 12.870 0.329 0.193 23 551271 1914 1979 66 0.995 0.368 0.351 3.533 0.406 0.173 24 551272 1905 1979 75 0.990 0.306 0.736 3.267 0.317 0.027 25 551281 1908 1979 72 0.994 0.521 1.688 7.340 0.468 0.178 26 551282 1904 1979 76 0.996 0.431 0.596 4.089 0.498 -0.183 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 71 0.990 0.393 0.794 5.034 0.376 0.172 STANDARD DEVIATION 11 0.009 0.066 0.756 2.827 0.058 0.207 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 71 0.992 0.385 0.565 3.811 0.365 0.175 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 8 0.006 0.091 1.221 3.564 0.077 0.287 MINIMUM VALUE 39 0.952 0.295 -0.198 2.385 0.294 -0.273 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 68 0.989 0.339 0.292 3.210 0.329 0.048 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 76 0.994 0.430 1.513 6.774 0.406 0.334 MAXIMUM VALUE 95 0.998 0.552 2.367 12.870 0.498 0.526 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.217 0.205 0.011 -0.010 2.548 -0.287 0.758 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.287 SERIES 551171 AND 551222 68 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.758 SERIES 551261 AND 551262 65 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 68.14 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. CORR 6. 136. 231. 300. 300. 325. 325. RBAR 0.187 0.170 0.247 0.152 0.172 0.132 0.269 SDEV 0.408 0.237 0.245 0.305 0.305 0.294 0.271 SERR 0.166 0.020 0.016 0.018 0.018 0.016 0.015 EPS 0.771 0.818 0.888 0.820 0.843 0.798 0.905 NSS 14.6 22.0 24.1 25.5 26.0 26.0 26.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1885 1979 95 0.975 0.218 -0.147 3.905 0.244 -0.085 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.393 0.293 -0.005 23 72 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.26 0.41 1.00 1.06 1.48 4.17 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.09 0.00 0.86 0.95 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.084 0.149 -0.170 0.009 -0.156 0.129 -0.122 0.112 -0.223 -0.035 PACF -0.084 0.143 -0.152 -0.033 -0.118 0.098 -0.086 0.038 -0.182 -0.116 95% C.L. 0.205 0.207 0.211 0.217 0.217 0.222 0.225 0.227 0.230 0.239 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.225 0.222 -0.109 0.112 -0.256 0.088 -0.090 0.179 -0.202 -0.007 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 -0.225 2 -0.185 0.180 3 -0.179 0.175 -0.030 4 -0.178 0.166 -0.021 0.051 5 -0.166 0.161 0.015 0.012 -0.220 6 -0.172 0.161 0.016 0.016 -0.225 -0.026 7 -0.172 0.164 0.016 0.016 -0.227 -0.024 0.012 8 -0.174 0.168 0.051 0.014 -0.229 -0.050 0.038 0.154 9 -0.154 0.173 0.044 -0.016 -0.227 -0.043 0.060 0.132 -0.130 10 -0.180 0.199 0.056 -0.025 -0.273 -0.046 0.069 0.166 -0.161 -0.202 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 709.26 706.31 705.18 707.09 708.84 706.11 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 708.04 710.03 709.74 710.13 708.18 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.185 0.180 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 8.15 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 108.88 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 -0.185 0.214 -0.073 0.052 -0.023 0.014 -0.007 0.004 -0.002 0.0010 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 551161 2 0.233 0.221 0.306 2 551162 2 0.116 0.085 0.309 3 551171 2 0.113 0.335 0.001 4 551172 2 0.096 0.140 0.213 5 551181 2 0.110 -0.046 0.280 6 551182 2 0.087 0.136 0.191 7 551191 2 0.035 0.070 0.054 8 551192 2 0.022 0.018 0.141 9 551201 2 0.005 0.051 -0.047 10 551202 2 0.279 0.532 -0.010 11 551211 2 0.272 0.207 0.409 12 551212 2 0.400 0.361 0.232 13 551221 2 0.062 0.251 -0.023 14 551222 2 0.264 0.350 0.240 15 551231 2 0.191 0.212 0.320 16 551232 2 0.280 0.305 0.309 17 551241 2 0.105 -0.266 0.051 18 551242 2 0.084 0.035 0.285 19 551251 2 0.090 -0.101 0.256 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 551252 2 0.051 0.108 -0.026 21 551261 2 0.217 0.336 0.210 22 551262 2 0.088 0.214 0.111 23 551271 2 0.105 0.161 0.113 24 551272 2 0.058 0.023 0.151 25 551281 2 0.037 0.195 -0.012 26 551282 2 0.091 -0.182 0.056 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.134 0.144 0.159 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.100 0.179 0.133 MEDIAN 2 0.101 0.151 0.171 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.155 0.216 0.229 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.005 -0.266 -0.047 LOWER HINGE 2 0.062 0.035 0.051 UPPER HINGE 2 0.217 0.251 0.280 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.400 0.532 0.409 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 551161 1892 1979 88 1.000 0.424 1.514 7.131 0.380 0.086 2 551162 1892 1979 88 1.000 0.438 0.373 2.805 0.468 0.016 3 551171 1885 1979 95 1.000 0.368 0.841 4.265 0.392 0.001 4 551172 1901 1979 79 1.000 0.322 0.435 3.025 0.367 -0.031 5 551181 1909 1979 71 1.000 0.340 1.549 7.975 0.308 0.048 6 551182 1909 1979 71 1.000 0.313 0.235 3.382 0.322 0.019 7 551191 1902 1979 78 1.000 0.293 0.054 3.262 0.326 -0.008 8 551192 1900 1979 80 1.000 0.380 1.442 6.856 0.354 -0.008 9 551201 1925 1979 55 1.000 0.488 2.154 10.981 0.433 0.001 10 551202 1924 1979 56 1.000 0.366 0.334 2.967 0.424 0.000 11 551211 1906 1979 74 1.000 0.302 0.207 3.146 0.353 -0.020 12 551212 1909 1979 71 1.001 0.472 2.537 12.324 0.436 0.102 13 551221 1909 1979 71 1.000 0.328 0.033 3.034 0.359 0.008 14 551222 1912 1979 68 1.000 0.359 1.309 6.860 0.384 -0.019 15 551231 1908 1979 72 1.000 0.312 0.498 3.135 0.339 -0.034 16 551232 1907 1979 73 1.000 0.361 1.173 6.859 0.340 0.033 17 551241 1912 1979 68 1.000 0.389 0.289 3.860 0.413 -0.001 18 551242 1907 1979 73 1.000 0.369 0.741 4.547 0.413 -0.009 19 551251 1941 1979 39 1.000 0.315 0.112 2.617 0.392 0.023 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 551252 1928 1979 52 1.000 0.392 1.276 4.906 0.413 0.005 21 551261 1915 1979 65 1.000 0.295 -0.060 3.340 0.317 0.027 22 551262 1911 1979 69 1.000 0.357 2.115 13.604 0.351 0.050 23 551271 1914 1979 66 1.000 0.360 0.291 3.424 0.417 0.035 24 551272 1905 1979 75 1.000 0.302 0.636 3.269 0.320 0.028 25 551281 1908 1979 72 1.000 0.511 1.793 7.621 0.493 0.015 26 551282 1904 1979 76 1.000 0.422 0.519 3.791 0.441 -0.022 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 71 1.000 0.368 0.862 5.346 0.383 0.013 STANDARD DEVIATION 11 0.000 0.060 0.745 3.083 0.050 0.033 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 71 1.000 0.360 0.578 3.826 0.382 0.007 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 8 0.000 0.077 1.152 3.714 0.078 0.035 MINIMUM VALUE 39 1.000 0.293 -0.060 2.617 0.308 -0.034 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 68 1.000 0.315 0.289 3.146 0.340 -0.008 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 76 1.000 0.392 1.442 6.860 0.417 0.028 MAXIMUM VALUE 95 1.001 0.511 2.537 13.604 0.493 0.102 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.233 0.170 0.009 0.308 2.801 -0.152 0.699 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.152 SERIES 551162 AND 551262 69 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.699 SERIES 551261 AND 551262 65 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 68.14 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. CORR 6. 136. 231. 300. 300. 325. 325. RBAR 0.263 0.193 0.233 0.158 0.156 0.154 0.299 SDEV 0.317 0.229 0.224 0.261 0.254 0.272 0.232 SERR 0.129 0.020 0.015 0.015 0.015 0.015 0.013 EPS 0.839 0.840 0.880 0.827 0.828 0.826 0.917 NSS 14.6 22.0 24.1 25.5 26.0 26.0 26.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1885 1979 95 0.982 0.215 -0.365 3.840 0.248 -0.149 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.372 0.250 0.012 24 71 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.21 0.28 1.00 1.10 1.38 3.63 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.07 0.00 0.87 0.94 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.148 -0.026 -0.176 -0.010 -0.098 0.150 -0.088 0.108 -0.209 -0.045 PACF -0.148 -0.048 -0.192 -0.073 -0.140 0.075 -0.089 0.059 -0.182 -0.136 95% C.L. 0.205 0.210 0.210 0.216 0.216 0.218 0.222 0.224 0.226 0.234 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.025 -0.151 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.014 -0.033 -0.205 -0.045 -0.097 0.140 -0.059 0.066 -0.224 -0.068 PACF -0.014 -0.033 -0.206 -0.055 -0.119 0.092 -0.089 0.031 -0.211 -0.108 95% C.L. 0.205 0.205 0.205 0.214 0.214 0.216 0.220 0.221 0.221 0.231 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.046 -0.015 -0.034 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1885 1979 95 0.981 0.224 -0.371 4.648 0.265 -0.281 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.278 0.235 -0.300 0.099 -0.190 0.194 -0.166 0.155 -0.245 0.014 PACF -0.278 0.170 -0.221 -0.057 -0.110 0.079 -0.082 0.014 -0.155 -0.169 95% C.L. 0.205 0.221 0.231 0.247 0.248 0.254 0.261 0.265 0.269 0.278 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.157 -0.196 0.119 -0.228 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.25 MINUTES