RUN: SWIT004 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWIT151P.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWIT151P.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 20 10 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 551 1 Wylewald BE, Tanne gesun LATEWOOD_PERCENT ABAL - 551 2 Switzerland silver fir, European fir 570 4701-729 1885 1979 - 551 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 17 551241 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 8 IN 1 GAPS / 1917 1924 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 551161 1892 1979 88 2.080 0.808 1.119 5.043 0.367 0.085 2 551162 1892 1979 88 2.366 0.968 1.145 4.803 0.397 -0.065 3 551171 1885 1979 95 2.064 0.852 1.591 6.362 0.330 0.400 4 551172 1901 1979 79 2.083 0.760 0.852 3.389 0.339 0.324 5 551181 1909 1979 71 2.983 1.322 1.669 6.396 0.325 0.314 6 551182 1909 1979 71 2.547 0.928 0.823 3.497 0.320 0.262 7 551191 1902 1979 78 2.331 0.735 0.738 3.703 0.346 0.003 8 551192 1900 1979 80 2.136 0.709 0.081 2.709 0.372 0.126 9 551201 1925 1979 55 2.169 1.056 1.134 4.582 0.437 0.071 10 551202 1924 1979 56 2.268 1.294 1.273 4.361 0.406 0.655 11 551211 1906 1979 74 2.861 1.189 1.097 4.518 0.268 0.525 12 551212 1909 1979 71 2.824 1.026 0.691 3.107 0.290 0.417 13 551221 1909 1979 71 3.042 0.905 0.499 3.287 0.295 0.176 14 551222 1912 1979 68 3.400 1.502 1.123 3.863 0.297 0.549 15 551231 1908 1979 72 3.087 0.802 0.540 3.100 0.265 0.111 16 551232 1907 1979 73 2.842 0.842 0.788 3.664 0.283 0.190 17 551241 1912 1979 68 3.464 1.218 0.136 2.692 0.403 -0.135 18 551242 1907 1979 73 2.978 0.973 -0.198 2.514 0.361 0.106 19 551251 1941 1979 39 3.386 0.975 0.396 2.641 0.351 0.024 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 551252 1928 1979 52 2.243 0.907 0.188 2.415 0.391 0.430 21 551261 1915 1979 65 3.894 1.230 0.728 3.573 0.289 0.356 22 551262 1911 1979 69 3.605 1.092 0.653 3.293 0.279 0.314 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 22 FROM 1885 TO 1979 95 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 70 2.757 1.004 0.776 3.796 0.337 0.238 STANDARD DEVIATION 12 0.562 0.213 0.479 1.123 0.050 0.209 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 71 2.833 0.970 0.763 3.535 0.334 0.226 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 13 0.843 0.347 0.624 1.417 0.083 0.315 MINIMUM VALUE 39 2.064 0.709 -0.198 2.415 0.265 -0.135 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 65 2.243 0.842 0.499 3.100 0.290 0.085 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 78 3.087 1.189 1.123 4.518 0.372 0.400 MAXIMUM VALUE 95 3.894 1.502 1.669 6.396 0.437 0.655 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.311 0.194 0.013 0.184 2.571 -0.082 0.859 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.082 SERIES 551162 AND 551202 56 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.859 SERIES 551261 AND 551262 65 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 67.23 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. CORR 6. 91. 153. 210. 210. 231. 231. RBAR 0.320 0.435 0.371 0.300 0.384 0.261 0.346 SDEV 0.228 0.230 0.203 0.270 0.242 0.266 0.242 SERR 0.093 0.024 0.016 0.019 0.017 0.018 0.016 EPS 0.851 0.933 0.922 0.902 0.932 0.886 0.921 NSS 12.1 18.1 20.1 21.5 22.0 22.0 22.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1885 1979 95 2.455 0.785 0.233 3.194 0.265 0.341 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.791 0.454 -0.323 20 75 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.14 0.31 1.00 1.03 1.34 2.30 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.11 0.00 0.84 0.95 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 71. 10. 39. 68. 78. 95. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.337 0.506 0.244 0.381 0.280 0.405 0.182 0.230 0.124 0.139 PACF 0.337 0.443 -0.001 0.156 0.115 0.182 -0.112 -0.074 -0.010 -0.065 95% C.L. 0.205 0.227 0.271 0.280 0.301 0.312 0.333 0.337 0.344 0.346 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.306 0.183 0.463 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 551161 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00699253 1.76928687 2 551162 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00373155 2.19951415 3 551171 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01331971 1.42423296 4 551172 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00559980 1.85942554 5 551181 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.03736922 1.63738430 6 551182 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01975587 1.83540845 7 551191 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00412815 2.49395943 8 551192 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00732923 2.43270898 9 551201 1 1.82250547 0.06538472 0.00000000 1.69178069 10 551202 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02351162 1.59795451 11 551211 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.03665813 1.48667157 12 551212 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02602481 1.88690948 13 551221 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01892254 2.36061978 14 551222 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.05125759 1.63205445 15 551231 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00086147 3.05522299 16 551232 1 0.72196865 0.06415755 0.00000000 2.69362974 17 551241 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01660120 2.80277348 18 551242 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00821301 3.28210044 19 551251 1 2.21797752 0.04889210 0.00000000 2.41952658 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 551252 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.02479766 2.90040731 21 551261 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.03048383 2.88787985 22 551262 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01960723 2.91838455 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 551161 1892 1979 88 1.000 0.382 1.301 5.852 0.363 0.067 2 551162 1892 1979 88 1.000 0.407 1.176 4.964 0.392 -0.088 3 551171 1885 1979 95 0.998 0.347 1.176 4.845 0.327 0.233 4 551172 1901 1979 79 1.000 0.357 0.831 3.348 0.334 0.306 5 551181 1909 1979 71 1.004 0.335 0.633 2.954 0.322 0.079 6 551182 1909 1979 71 0.999 0.320 0.544 3.103 0.316 0.100 7 551191 1902 1979 78 1.000 0.312 0.667 3.476 0.341 -0.018 8 551192 1900 1979 80 1.000 0.328 0.196 2.981 0.368 0.035 9 551201 1925 1979 55 1.000 0.481 2.153 9.892 0.428 -0.108 10 551202 1924 1979 56 1.007 0.520 0.676 3.348 0.400 0.556 11 551211 1906 1979 74 0.995 0.274 0.777 3.713 0.264 0.207 12 551212 1909 1979 71 0.997 0.288 0.284 3.242 0.286 0.285 13 551221 1909 1979 71 0.999 0.273 0.621 2.733 0.291 0.016 14 551222 1912 1979 68 1.005 0.307 0.438 2.588 0.294 0.118 15 551231 1908 1979 72 1.000 0.260 0.529 3.070 0.262 0.112 16 551232 1907 1979 73 1.000 0.294 1.027 4.716 0.279 0.146 17 551241 1912 1979 68 0.999 0.326 -0.142 2.548 0.375 -0.095 18 551242 1907 1979 73 1.000 0.328 -0.012 2.800 0.356 0.042 19 551251 1941 1979 39 1.000 0.250 0.651 3.949 0.339 -0.500 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 551252 1928 1979 52 1.000 0.383 0.351 2.553 0.383 0.265 21 551261 1915 1979 65 1.002 0.273 0.107 2.739 0.284 0.201 22 551262 1911 1979 69 1.000 0.273 0.117 2.495 0.275 0.254 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 71 1.000 0.333 0.641 3.723 0.331 0.101 STANDARD DEVIATION 12 0.002 0.069 0.515 1.652 0.048 0.205 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 71 1.000 0.323 0.627 3.173 0.330 0.106 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 10 0.001 0.083 0.547 1.210 0.081 0.217 MINIMUM VALUE 39 0.995 0.250 -0.142 2.495 0.262 -0.500 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 68 0.999 0.274 0.284 2.739 0.286 0.016 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 78 1.000 0.357 0.831 3.949 0.368 0.233 MAXIMUM VALUE 95 1.007 0.520 2.153 9.892 0.428 0.556 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 551161 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 551162 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 551171 -67 63 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 551172 -67 52 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 551181 -67 47 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 551182 -67 47 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 551191 -67 52 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 551192 -67 53 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 551201 -67 36 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 551202 -67 37 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 551211 -67 49 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 551212 -67 47 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 551221 -67 47 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 551222 -67 45 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 551231 -67 48 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 551232 -67 48 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 551241 -67 45 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 551242 -67 48 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 551251 -67 26 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 551252 -67 34 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 551261 -67 43 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 551262 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 551161 1892 1979 88 0.998 0.379 1.508 6.778 0.363 0.024 2 551162 1892 1979 88 0.997 0.395 1.153 5.075 0.392 -0.127 3 551171 1885 1979 95 0.997 0.320 1.081 4.788 0.326 0.117 4 551172 1901 1979 79 0.995 0.315 0.572 2.750 0.335 0.108 5 551181 1909 1979 71 0.995 0.305 0.620 2.848 0.321 -0.004 6 551182 1909 1979 71 0.998 0.310 0.608 3.055 0.316 0.015 7 551191 1902 1979 78 0.996 0.287 0.933 4.627 0.341 -0.211 8 551192 1900 1979 80 0.998 0.317 0.107 2.743 0.368 -0.021 9 551201 1925 1979 55 0.997 0.459 1.970 9.454 0.426 -0.148 10 551202 1924 1979 56 0.983 0.386 -0.056 2.959 0.400 0.334 11 551211 1906 1979 74 0.998 0.253 0.773 4.537 0.264 0.050 12 551212 1909 1979 71 0.997 0.266 0.181 3.213 0.286 0.086 13 551221 1909 1979 71 0.997 0.247 0.528 2.638 0.290 -0.143 14 551222 1912 1979 68 0.994 0.259 0.379 2.704 0.294 -0.116 15 551231 1908 1979 72 0.998 0.246 0.428 2.599 0.262 -0.008 16 551232 1907 1979 73 0.998 0.283 0.935 4.422 0.278 0.117 17 551241 1912 1979 68 0.999 0.317 0.088 3.010 0.375 -0.284 18 551242 1907 1979 73 0.996 0.305 0.118 3.692 0.356 -0.120 19 551251 1941 1979 39 1.000 0.248 0.657 3.901 0.339 -0.512 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 551252 1928 1979 52 0.995 0.364 0.320 2.813 0.384 0.179 21 551261 1915 1979 65 0.997 0.252 0.177 3.123 0.283 0.087 22 551262 1911 1979 69 0.996 0.252 0.005 2.471 0.275 0.171 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 71 0.996 0.307 0.595 3.827 0.331 -0.018 STANDARD DEVIATION 12 0.003 0.058 0.513 1.656 0.048 0.182 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 71 0.997 0.305 0.550 3.089 0.330 0.005 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 10 0.002 0.067 0.756 1.786 0.082 0.235 MINIMUM VALUE 39 0.983 0.246 -0.056 2.471 0.262 -0.512 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 68 0.996 0.253 0.177 2.750 0.286 -0.127 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 78 0.998 0.320 0.933 4.537 0.368 0.108 MAXIMUM VALUE 95 1.000 0.459 1.970 9.454 0.426 0.334 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.343 0.149 0.010 0.115 3.250 -0.033 0.832 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.033 SERIES 551221 AND 551252 52 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.832 SERIES 551261 AND 551262 65 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 67.23 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. CORR 6. 91. 153. 210. 210. 231. 231. RBAR 0.340 0.321 0.454 0.339 0.344 0.261 0.359 SDEV 0.230 0.236 0.169 0.223 0.236 0.261 0.238 SERR 0.094 0.025 0.014 0.015 0.016 0.017 0.016 EPS 0.862 0.896 0.944 0.917 0.920 0.886 0.925 NSS 12.1 18.1 20.1 21.5 22.0 22.0 22.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1885 1979 95 0.989 0.254 1.401 7.800 0.269 -0.089 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.321 0.130 0.081 23 72 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.33 0.71 1.02 1.17 1.88 2.97 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.09 0.00 0.86 0.95 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.088 0.100 -0.259 -0.026 0.028 0.208 -0.169 0.004 -0.172 -0.139 PACF -0.088 0.093 -0.247 -0.076 0.071 0.174 -0.199 -0.039 -0.044 -0.246 95% C.L. 0.205 0.207 0.209 0.222 0.222 0.222 0.230 0.235 0.235 0.241 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.101 0.331 -0.193 0.213 -0.126 0.093 -0.170 -0.038 -0.233 -0.192 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 -0.101 2 -0.068 0.324 3 -0.018 0.314 -0.155 4 -0.002 0.281 -0.153 0.104 5 -0.001 0.279 -0.150 0.104 -0.012 6 -0.001 0.283 -0.155 0.114 -0.012 -0.037 7 -0.005 0.282 -0.145 0.100 0.015 -0.037 -0.093 8 -0.016 0.278 -0.143 0.111 -0.002 -0.004 -0.093 -0.117 9 -0.035 0.262 -0.144 0.111 0.016 -0.028 -0.047 -0.120 -0.168 10 -0.077 0.232 -0.155 0.104 0.020 0.000 -0.083 -0.054 -0.177 -0.251 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 664.72 665.74 657.20 656.89 657.85 659.84 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 661.71 662.89 663.58 662.86 658.68 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 3 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.018 0.314 -0.155 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 13.55 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 115.68 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 3) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 -0.018 0.314 -0.166 0.104 -0.103 0.060 -0.049 0.036 -0.026 0.0193 -0.014 0.010 -0.008 0.006 -0.004 0.003 -0.002 0.002 -0.001 0.0009 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 551161 3 0.066 0.053 0.168 -0.199 2 551162 3 0.083 -0.094 0.087 -0.208 3 551171 3 0.058 0.114 -0.093 -0.147 4 551172 3 0.031 0.110 0.000 -0.004 5 551181 3 0.138 0.017 0.357 -0.055 6 551182 3 0.044 0.027 0.178 -0.083 7 551191 3 0.048 -0.201 0.032 -0.040 8 551192 3 0.116 0.004 0.081 -0.280 9 551201 3 0.080 -0.204 -0.223 -0.134 10 551202 3 0.124 0.372 -0.109 0.012 11 551211 3 0.070 0.066 0.237 -0.119 12 551212 3 0.205 0.151 0.373 -0.268 13 551221 3 0.029 -0.141 0.056 0.080 14 551222 3 0.104 -0.125 0.278 0.150 15 551231 3 0.012 -0.010 0.103 0.024 16 551232 3 0.091 0.096 0.279 -0.040 17 551241 3 0.114 -0.264 0.142 0.080 18 551242 3 0.099 -0.078 0.124 -0.179 19 551251 3 0.378 -0.454 -0.076 -0.344 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 551252 3 0.078 0.185 0.112 -0.200 21 551261 3 0.191 -0.004 0.331 0.179 22 551262 3 0.172 0.074 0.309 0.132 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 3 0.106 -0.014 0.125 -0.075 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.079 0.176 0.162 0.147 MEDIAN 3 0.087 0.011 0.118 -0.069 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.066 0.221 0.246 0.223 MINIMUM VALUE 3 0.012 -0.454 -0.223 -0.344 LOWER HINGE 3 0.058 -0.125 0.032 -0.199 UPPER HINGE 3 0.124 0.096 0.278 0.024 MAXIMUM VALUE 3 0.378 0.372 0.373 0.179 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 551161 1892 1979 88 1.000 0.366 1.268 5.660 0.374 -0.002 2 551162 1892 1979 88 1.000 0.379 0.880 4.205 0.380 -0.025 3 551171 1885 1979 95 1.000 0.313 1.231 5.021 0.329 0.015 4 551172 1901 1979 79 1.000 0.314 0.532 2.684 0.351 0.001 5 551181 1909 1979 71 1.000 0.284 0.641 3.207 0.292 0.007 6 551182 1909 1979 71 1.000 0.304 0.635 3.029 0.313 0.007 7 551191 1902 1979 78 1.000 0.280 0.717 4.120 0.300 0.000 8 551192 1900 1979 80 1.000 0.303 -0.071 2.746 0.353 -0.052 9 551201 1925 1979 55 1.000 0.441 1.200 6.784 0.396 0.006 10 551202 1924 1979 56 1.000 0.362 0.400 3.340 0.407 0.001 11 551211 1906 1979 74 1.000 0.244 0.386 4.387 0.267 -0.002 12 551212 1909 1979 71 1.000 0.238 0.387 3.097 0.264 0.020 13 551221 1909 1979 71 1.000 0.243 0.535 2.654 0.265 0.000 14 551222 1912 1979 68 1.000 0.245 0.267 2.730 0.267 -0.004 15 551231 1908 1979 72 1.000 0.244 0.396 2.486 0.264 -0.001 16 551232 1907 1979 73 1.000 0.270 1.011 4.738 0.274 0.004 17 551241 1912 1979 68 1.000 0.300 0.175 2.593 0.318 0.013 18 551242 1907 1979 73 1.000 0.295 0.088 3.528 0.342 -0.032 19 551251 1941 1979 39 1.000 0.195 0.441 3.314 0.219 -0.006 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 551252 1928 1979 52 1.000 0.349 0.417 2.979 0.382 0.010 21 551261 1915 1979 65 1.000 0.232 0.042 3.172 0.266 0.034 22 551262 1911 1979 69 1.000 0.233 0.155 2.841 0.276 0.022 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 71 1.000 0.292 0.533 3.605 0.314 0.001 STANDARD DEVIATION 12 0.000 0.059 0.386 1.122 0.053 0.019 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 71 1.000 0.289 0.429 3.189 0.306 0.001 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 10 0.000 0.069 0.449 1.459 0.086 0.013 MINIMUM VALUE 39 1.000 0.195 -0.071 2.486 0.219 -0.052 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 68 1.000 0.244 0.267 2.746 0.267 -0.002 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 78 1.000 0.314 0.717 4.205 0.353 0.010 MAXIMUM VALUE 95 1.000 0.441 1.268 6.784 0.407 0.034 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.296 0.148 0.010 0.262 3.182 -0.072 0.753 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.072 SERIES 551191 AND 551252 52 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.753 SERIES 551261 AND 551262 65 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 67.23 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. CORR 6. 91. 153. 210. 210. 231. 231. RBAR 0.351 0.280 0.399 0.286 0.295 0.239 0.305 SDEV 0.286 0.248 0.177 0.230 0.238 0.249 0.227 SERR 0.117 0.026 0.014 0.016 0.016 0.016 0.015 EPS 0.868 0.876 0.930 0.896 0.902 0.873 0.906 NSS 12.1 18.1 20.1 21.5 22.0 22.0 22.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1885 1979 95 0.990 0.239 0.949 6.104 0.268 -0.120 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.346 0.153 0.054 24 71 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.10 0.85 1.01 1.07 1.92 2.68 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.10 0.00 0.87 0.97 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.118 -0.015 -0.072 -0.131 0.073 0.204 -0.229 0.032 -0.094 -0.205 PACF -0.118 -0.029 -0.078 -0.153 0.034 0.212 -0.212 -0.024 -0.048 -0.237 95% C.L. 0.205 0.208 0.208 0.209 0.213 0.214 0.222 0.231 0.232 0.233 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.012 -0.002 0.000 -0.156 0.072 0.174 -0.235 -0.008 -0.121 -0.251 PACF -0.012 -0.002 0.000 -0.156 0.071 0.180 -0.248 -0.036 -0.091 -0.235 95% C.L. 0.205 0.205 0.205 0.205 0.210 0.211 0.217 0.228 0.228 0.230 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.025 -0.012 -0.002 0.000 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1885 1979 95 0.991 0.255 1.299 6.677 0.275 -0.111 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.110 0.309 -0.209 0.056 -0.099 0.196 -0.246 0.017 -0.215 -0.186 PACF -0.110 0.301 -0.170 -0.066 0.015 0.185 -0.251 -0.145 -0.015 -0.278 95% C.L. 0.205 0.208 0.226 0.234 0.235 0.237 0.243 0.254 0.254 0.261 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.136 -0.022 0.291 -0.181 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.24 MINUTES