RUN: SWIT004 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWIT151W.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWIT151W.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 20 10 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 551 1 Wylewald BE, Tanne gesun WIDTH_RING ABAL - 551 2 Switzerland silver fir, European fir 570 4701-729 1885 1979 - 551 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 17 551241 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 8 IN 1 GAPS / 1917 1924 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 551161 1892 1979 88 2.577 1.082 0.489 3.012 0.250 0.714 2 551162 1892 1979 88 2.488 1.067 -0.093 2.721 0.354 0.530 3 551171 1885 1979 95 2.598 1.048 -0.040 3.307 0.278 0.729 4 551172 1901 1979 79 2.747 0.929 -0.385 3.572 0.250 0.700 5 551181 1909 1979 71 2.749 0.821 0.478 4.137 0.211 0.614 6 551182 1909 1979 71 2.424 0.766 1.091 5.568 0.234 0.580 7 551191 1902 1979 78 3.008 1.154 -0.353 2.589 0.233 0.697 8 551192 1900 1979 80 3.414 1.370 -0.336 2.185 0.218 0.794 9 551201 1925 1979 55 4.012 1.422 -0.500 2.781 0.203 0.785 10 551202 1924 1979 56 3.281 1.199 -0.620 3.355 0.240 0.749 11 551211 1906 1979 74 2.344 0.825 -0.299 3.234 0.227 0.739 12 551212 1909 1979 71 2.619 1.083 1.547 5.983 0.233 0.753 13 551221 1909 1979 71 2.251 0.958 -0.169 2.529 0.279 0.780 14 551222 1912 1979 68 2.479 1.049 -0.464 2.171 0.275 0.782 15 551231 1908 1979 72 3.288 1.490 0.510 2.443 0.203 0.892 16 551232 1907 1979 73 3.298 1.636 1.042 2.856 0.210 0.871 17 551241 1912 1979 68 2.272 0.851 -0.403 2.230 0.232 0.796 18 551242 1907 1979 73 2.481 0.895 0.311 2.947 0.244 0.675 19 551251 1941 1979 39 2.721 0.818 -0.107 2.311 0.258 0.591 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 551252 1928 1979 52 2.947 1.036 0.670 3.091 0.202 0.681 21 551261 1915 1979 65 2.740 1.209 0.042 2.503 0.253 0.791 22 551262 1911 1979 69 2.531 0.993 -0.470 2.533 0.277 0.706 23 551271 1914 1979 66 2.302 1.006 2.239 9.955 0.294 0.609 24 551272 1905 1979 75 2.633 1.039 1.722 5.417 0.221 0.700 25 551281 1908 1979 72 2.366 1.152 2.032 9.893 0.285 0.602 26 551282 1904 1979 76 2.100 0.779 0.414 4.147 0.305 0.487 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 26 FROM 1885 TO 1979 95 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 71 2.718 1.065 0.321 3.749 0.249 0.706 STANDARD DEVIATION 11 0.440 0.223 0.832 2.094 0.037 0.099 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 71 2.609 1.044 0.001 2.979 0.242 0.710 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 10 0.523 0.259 1.023 1.609 0.056 0.168 MINIMUM VALUE 39 2.100 0.766 -0.620 2.171 0.202 0.487 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 66 2.424 0.895 -0.353 2.529 0.221 0.614 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 76 2.947 1.154 0.670 4.137 0.277 0.782 MAXIMUM VALUE 95 4.012 1.636 2.239 9.955 0.354 0.892 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.178 0.322 0.018 -0.111 2.341 -0.594 0.865 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.594 SERIES 551202 AND 551272 56 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.865 SERIES 551171 AND 551172 79 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 68.14 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. CORR 6. 136. 231. 300. 300. 325. 325. RBAR 0.148 0.333 0.436 0.271 0.181 0.239 0.155 SDEV 0.374 0.304 0.292 0.348 0.404 0.352 0.414 SERR 0.153 0.026 0.019 0.020 0.023 0.020 0.023 EPS 0.717 0.916 0.949 0.904 0.851 0.891 0.827 NSS 14.6 22.0 24.1 25.5 26.0 26.0 26.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1885 1979 95 2.726 0.555 0.339 4.097 0.195 0.352 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.158 -0.127 1.202 33 62 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.20 0.73 1.00 1.06 1.80 2.96 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.09 0.00 0.85 0.94 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 72. 8. 39. 68. 76. 95. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.348 0.370 0.335 0.209 0.319 0.307 0.076 0.167 -0.031 -0.094 PACF 0.348 0.283 0.178 -0.010 0.170 0.144 -0.202 -0.007 -0.173 -0.179 95% C.L. 0.205 0.229 0.253 0.271 0.277 0.292 0.306 0.307 0.310 0.310 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.219 0.198 0.241 0.178 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 551161 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01525748 3.25623035 2 551162 1 3.15331531 0.00694164 0.00000000 0.13623665 3 551171 1 1.42347658 0.05910088 0.00000000 2.35278726 4 551172 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00486076 2.55303812 5 551181 1 2.00430298 0.00970891 0.00000000 1.30741215 6 551182 1 5.20994091 0.55955344 0.00000000 2.32637215 7 551191 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01460514 3.58536458 8 551192 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01247984 3.91918349 9 551201 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.05654834 5.59535360 10 551202 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.02614867 4.02577257 11 551211 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01077512 2.74798608 12 551212 1 0.42552605 0.06211720 0.00000000 2.52691507 13 551221 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.02939336 3.30942869 14 551222 1 2.46875477 0.01958981 0.00000000 1.12776482 15 551231 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02122211 2.51330996 16 551232 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00797482 3.59287667 17 551241 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01698508 2.84538341 18 551242 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.02087190 3.25321913 19 551251 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00992308 2.52230763 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 551252 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.03093785 2.12687778 21 551261 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.04548514 4.24131727 22 551262 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.02727804 3.48574591 23 551271 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02010479 1.62800467 24 551272 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02746742 1.58943784 25 551281 1 3.20336604 0.20275229 0.00000000 2.16817045 26 551282 1 2.26325297 0.13909021 0.00000000 1.90031672 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 551161 1892 1979 88 0.998 0.405 0.634 2.963 0.247 0.682 2 551162 1892 1979 88 1.000 0.441 0.569 3.838 0.350 0.498 3 551171 1885 1979 95 1.000 0.407 0.397 4.237 0.276 0.703 4 551172 1901 1979 79 1.000 0.333 -0.530 3.457 0.247 0.690 5 551181 1909 1979 71 1.000 0.281 0.205 2.919 0.209 0.566 6 551182 1909 1979 71 1.000 0.268 0.138 3.145 0.232 0.530 7 551191 1902 1979 78 0.997 0.391 0.034 2.339 0.231 0.712 8 551192 1900 1979 80 0.998 0.402 -0.200 2.022 0.214 0.786 9 551201 1925 1979 55 0.993 0.309 0.318 3.236 0.200 0.696 10 551202 1924 1979 56 0.997 0.374 0.074 3.586 0.235 0.740 11 551211 1906 1979 74 1.001 0.373 0.569 4.514 0.224 0.707 12 551212 1909 1979 71 1.000 0.422 1.793 6.663 0.229 0.743 13 551221 1909 1979 71 0.989 0.353 0.155 3.494 0.275 0.628 14 551222 1912 1979 68 1.000 0.440 0.585 3.377 0.270 0.711 15 551231 1908 1979 72 0.996 0.434 0.650 2.621 0.200 0.872 16 551232 1907 1979 73 0.999 0.492 1.044 2.882 0.207 0.853 17 551241 1912 1979 68 0.996 0.355 0.294 2.618 0.230 0.733 18 551242 1907 1979 73 0.998 0.318 0.411 3.060 0.240 0.562 19 551251 1941 1979 39 1.000 0.298 -0.132 2.259 0.252 0.585 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 551252 1928 1979 52 1.000 0.300 0.133 2.321 0.199 0.635 21 551261 1915 1979 65 0.998 0.385 1.451 7.829 0.249 0.548 22 551262 1911 1979 69 0.995 0.371 0.120 2.724 0.273 0.587 23 551271 1914 1979 66 1.005 0.397 1.333 5.122 0.290 0.546 24 551272 1905 1979 75 1.008 0.295 0.227 2.538 0.218 0.545 25 551281 1908 1979 72 1.000 0.477 3.036 16.527 0.283 0.524 26 551282 1904 1979 76 1.000 0.335 0.313 4.282 0.299 0.373 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 71 0.999 0.371 0.524 4.022 0.245 0.644 STANDARD DEVIATION 11 0.004 0.060 0.727 2.879 0.036 0.116 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 71 1.000 0.374 0.316 3.191 0.237 0.659 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 8 0.003 0.089 0.501 1.616 0.055 0.164 MINIMUM VALUE 39 0.989 0.268 -0.530 2.022 0.199 0.373 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 68 0.997 0.318 0.133 2.621 0.218 0.548 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 76 1.000 0.407 0.634 4.237 0.273 0.712 MAXIMUM VALUE 95 1.008 0.492 3.036 16.527 0.350 0.872 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 551161 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 551162 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 551171 -67 63 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 551172 -67 52 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 551181 -67 47 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 551182 -67 47 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 551191 -67 52 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 551192 -67 53 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 551201 -67 36 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 551202 -67 37 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 551211 -67 49 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 551212 -67 47 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 551221 -67 47 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 551222 -67 45 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 551231 -67 48 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 551232 -67 48 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 551241 -67 45 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 551242 -67 48 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 551251 -67 26 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 551252 -67 34 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 551261 -67 43 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 551262 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 551271 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 551272 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 551281 -67 48 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 551282 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 551161 1892 1979 88 0.986 0.336 0.398 3.072 0.247 0.528 2 551162 1892 1979 88 0.981 0.372 -0.026 2.632 0.349 0.343 3 551171 1885 1979 95 0.987 0.334 -0.134 3.788 0.275 0.588 4 551172 1901 1979 79 0.991 0.285 -0.747 3.698 0.247 0.569 5 551181 1909 1979 71 0.997 0.269 0.200 2.971 0.209 0.535 6 551182 1909 1979 71 0.999 0.249 0.054 3.453 0.232 0.467 7 551191 1902 1979 78 0.989 0.275 -0.062 2.537 0.230 0.451 8 551192 1900 1979 80 0.988 0.263 0.012 3.069 0.211 0.542 9 551201 1925 1979 55 0.993 0.226 -0.168 3.100 0.204 0.457 10 551202 1924 1979 56 0.995 0.296 -0.159 4.700 0.234 0.525 11 551211 1906 1979 74 0.988 0.281 -0.748 3.981 0.224 0.612 12 551212 1909 1979 71 0.992 0.374 1.575 5.999 0.228 0.682 13 551221 1909 1979 71 0.995 0.304 -0.151 3.627 0.275 0.435 14 551222 1912 1979 68 0.972 0.322 -0.381 2.890 0.267 0.568 15 551231 1908 1979 72 0.984 0.263 -0.070 2.967 0.197 0.599 16 551232 1907 1979 73 0.987 0.331 1.019 4.981 0.205 0.649 17 551241 1912 1979 68 0.993 0.236 -0.338 3.177 0.229 0.264 18 551242 1907 1979 73 0.992 0.279 0.585 4.109 0.240 0.404 19 551251 1941 1979 39 0.988 0.240 -0.403 2.660 0.250 0.343 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 551252 1928 1979 52 0.992 0.267 0.188 2.784 0.197 0.549 21 551261 1915 1979 65 0.989 0.315 0.475 4.908 0.247 0.509 22 551262 1911 1979 69 0.995 0.374 1.889 11.849 0.273 0.370 23 551271 1914 1979 66 0.995 0.301 0.290 3.753 0.287 0.361 24 551272 1905 1979 75 0.995 0.221 0.137 3.134 0.217 0.221 25 551281 1908 1979 72 0.994 0.362 0.353 3.920 0.283 0.486 26 551282 1904 1979 76 0.998 0.309 -0.320 3.081 0.298 0.317 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 71 0.991 0.295 0.133 3.878 0.244 0.476 STANDARD DEVIATION 11 0.006 0.046 0.613 1.829 0.036 0.120 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 71 0.992 0.290 -0.007 3.315 0.237 0.498 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 8 0.007 0.068 0.521 1.009 0.056 0.198 MINIMUM VALUE 39 0.972 0.221 -0.748 2.537 0.197 0.221 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 68 0.988 0.263 -0.168 2.971 0.217 0.370 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 76 0.995 0.331 0.353 3.981 0.273 0.568 MAXIMUM VALUE 95 0.999 0.374 1.889 11.849 0.349 0.682 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.269 0.233 0.013 -0.195 2.879 -0.359 0.874 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.359 SERIES 551212 AND 551281 71 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.874 SERIES 551261 AND 551262 65 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 68.14 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. CORR 6. 136. 231. 300. 300. 325. 325. RBAR 0.199 0.384 0.474 0.257 0.238 0.258 0.254 SDEV 0.254 0.239 0.273 0.314 0.335 0.315 0.346 SERR 0.104 0.020 0.018 0.018 0.019 0.017 0.019 EPS 0.784 0.932 0.956 0.898 0.890 0.900 0.899 NSS 14.6 22.0 24.1 25.5 26.0 26.0 26.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1885 1979 95 0.984 0.170 -0.280 3.586 0.196 0.103 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.075 0.049 0.159 23 72 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.12 0.25 1.00 1.04 1.30 2.06 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.09 0.00 0.86 0.95 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.102 0.137 0.031 -0.042 0.041 0.144 -0.078 -0.057 -0.235 -0.282 PACF 0.102 0.128 0.006 -0.065 0.047 0.155 -0.120 -0.092 -0.208 -0.229 95% C.L. 0.205 0.207 0.211 0.211 0.212 0.212 0.216 0.217 0.218 0.228 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.151 0.176 0.053 0.027 -0.026 0.127 -0.023 -0.131 -0.243 -0.275 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.151 2 0.127 0.157 3 0.126 0.156 0.007 4 0.126 0.158 0.008 -0.009 5 0.126 0.158 0.014 -0.004 -0.040 6 0.131 0.158 0.012 -0.026 -0.057 0.138 7 0.138 0.156 0.011 -0.025 -0.049 0.145 -0.049 8 0.129 0.181 0.003 -0.030 -0.047 0.172 -0.025 -0.174 9 0.091 0.175 0.041 -0.040 -0.054 0.173 0.015 -0.145 -0.222 10 0.046 0.146 0.044 -0.006 -0.065 0.165 0.023 -0.110 -0.204 -0.200 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 673.42 673.24 672.86 674.86 676.85 678.70 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 678.86 680.64 679.72 676.93 675.07 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.127 0.157 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 4.68 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 104.91 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.127 0.173 0.042 0.033 0.011 0.006 0.003 0.001 0.001 0.0003 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 551161 2 0.353 0.438 0.213 2 551162 2 0.263 0.216 0.386 3 551171 2 0.372 0.480 0.187 4 551172 2 0.354 0.453 0.206 5 551181 2 0.335 0.472 0.125 6 551182 2 0.246 0.532 -0.137 7 551191 2 0.276 0.356 0.231 8 551192 2 0.368 0.498 0.086 9 551201 2 0.213 0.440 0.042 10 551202 2 0.362 0.501 0.090 11 551211 2 0.436 0.438 0.291 12 551212 2 0.547 0.827 -0.204 13 551221 2 0.208 0.482 -0.074 14 551222 2 0.352 0.483 0.159 15 551231 2 0.408 0.493 0.187 16 551232 2 0.432 0.588 0.097 17 551241 2 0.182 0.177 0.337 18 551242 2 0.211 0.322 0.213 19 551251 2 0.135 0.361 -0.029 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 551252 2 0.330 0.639 -0.132 21 551261 2 0.325 0.528 0.069 22 551262 2 0.243 0.416 0.092 23 551271 2 0.152 0.324 0.114 24 551272 2 0.053 0.235 -0.061 25 551281 2 0.382 0.360 0.321 26 551282 2 0.178 0.273 0.173 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.297 0.436 0.115 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.111 0.139 0.152 MEDIAN 2 0.328 0.446 0.119 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.157 0.143 0.171 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.053 0.177 -0.204 LOWER HINGE 2 0.211 0.356 0.042 UPPER HINGE 2 0.368 0.498 0.213 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.547 0.827 0.386 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 551161 1892 1979 88 1.000 0.272 0.887 3.989 0.271 0.052 2 551162 1892 1979 88 1.000 0.321 0.179 2.801 0.350 -0.028 3 551171 1885 1979 95 1.000 0.265 0.160 3.047 0.310 0.003 4 551172 1901 1979 79 1.000 0.229 -0.443 3.573 0.282 -0.009 5 551181 1909 1979 71 1.000 0.224 -0.110 3.451 0.251 0.019 6 551182 1909 1979 71 1.000 0.218 -0.295 2.729 0.275 -0.016 7 551191 1902 1979 78 1.000 0.237 -0.203 2.912 0.258 0.041 8 551192 1900 1979 80 1.000 0.219 0.090 2.847 0.244 0.024 9 551201 1925 1979 55 1.000 0.200 -0.338 2.954 0.235 0.004 10 551202 1924 1979 56 1.000 0.246 0.279 3.682 0.278 0.051 11 551211 1906 1979 74 1.000 0.211 -0.349 4.319 0.236 0.021 12 551212 1909 1979 71 1.000 0.266 1.024 6.662 0.302 -0.060 13 551221 1909 1979 71 1.000 0.271 -0.434 3.409 0.326 0.010 14 551222 1912 1979 68 1.000 0.260 0.440 5.294 0.287 -0.008 15 551231 1908 1979 72 1.000 0.205 -0.051 2.906 0.226 -0.038 16 551232 1907 1979 73 1.000 0.250 1.043 5.836 0.257 -0.005 17 551241 1912 1979 68 1.000 0.214 0.149 3.284 0.226 -0.028 18 551242 1907 1979 73 1.000 0.248 0.546 3.917 0.264 -0.020 19 551251 1941 1979 39 1.000 0.225 -0.362 3.080 0.276 0.011 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 551252 1928 1979 52 1.000 0.218 0.198 3.066 0.241 0.009 21 551261 1915 1979 65 1.000 0.259 0.139 3.846 0.294 0.059 22 551262 1911 1979 69 1.000 0.331 2.518 15.839 0.315 0.088 23 551271 1914 1979 66 1.000 0.278 0.422 4.212 0.316 0.016 24 551272 1905 1979 75 1.000 0.215 0.066 2.877 0.238 0.001 25 551281 1908 1979 72 1.000 0.290 0.485 4.310 0.307 0.105 26 551282 1904 1979 76 1.000 0.288 -0.701 3.818 0.322 0.052 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 71 1.000 0.248 0.205 4.179 0.276 0.014 STANDARD DEVIATION 11 0.000 0.035 0.654 2.569 0.035 0.038 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 71 1.000 0.247 0.144 3.512 0.276 0.009 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 8 0.000 0.052 0.735 1.259 0.063 0.050 MINIMUM VALUE 39 1.000 0.200 -0.701 2.729 0.226 -0.060 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 68 1.000 0.218 -0.295 2.954 0.244 -0.009 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 76 1.000 0.271 0.440 4.212 0.307 0.041 MAXIMUM VALUE 95 1.000 0.331 2.518 15.839 0.350 0.105 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.389 0.136 0.008 0.233 3.752 0.033 0.847 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.033 SERIES 551212 AND 551262 69 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.847 SERIES 551171 AND 551172 79 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 68.14 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. CORR 6. 136. 231. 300. 300. 325. 325. RBAR 0.371 0.399 0.519 0.412 0.370 0.358 0.391 SDEV 0.284 0.208 0.188 0.213 0.216 0.233 0.208 SERR 0.116 0.018 0.012 0.012 0.012 0.013 0.012 EPS 0.896 0.936 0.963 0.947 0.938 0.935 0.944 NSS 14.6 22.0 24.1 25.5 26.0 26.0 26.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1885 1979 95 0.995 0.169 -0.231 2.923 0.225 -0.251 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.150 0.070 0.092 28 67 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.13 0.38 1.00 1.06 1.44 2.51 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.09 0.00 0.86 0.94 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.248 -0.033 0.027 -0.136 0.043 0.180 -0.126 0.078 -0.100 -0.200 PACF -0.248 -0.101 -0.008 -0.144 -0.031 0.180 -0.033 0.048 -0.078 -0.224 95% C.L. 0.205 0.217 0.218 0.218 0.221 0.222 0.228 0.231 0.232 0.234 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.074 -0.250 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.005 -0.022 -0.053 -0.113 0.052 0.187 -0.062 0.006 -0.164 -0.241 PACF -0.005 -0.022 -0.054 -0.115 0.049 0.183 -0.071 0.001 -0.143 -0.227 95% C.L. 0.205 0.205 0.205 0.206 0.208 0.209 0.216 0.217 0.217 0.222 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.004 -0.005 -0.023 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1885 1979 95 0.992 0.165 -0.304 3.383 0.188 0.119 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.118 0.117 -0.027 -0.057 0.048 0.166 -0.062 -0.050 -0.221 -0.288 PACF 0.118 0.105 -0.053 -0.062 0.072 0.173 -0.125 -0.080 -0.175 -0.239 95% C.L. 0.205 0.208 0.211 0.211 0.212 0.212 0.217 0.218 0.219 0.228 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.25 MINUTES