RUN: SWIT004 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWIT151X.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWIT151X.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 20 10 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 551 1 Wylewald BE, Tanne gesun DENSITY_MAXIMUM ABAL - 551 2 Switzerland silver fir, European fir 570 4701-729 1885 1979 - 551 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 17 551241 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 8 IN 1 GAPS / 1917 1924 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 551161 1892 1979 88 0.776 0.086 0.115 2.853 0.098 0.381 2 551162 1892 1979 88 0.801 0.083 -0.485 3.387 0.084 0.430 3 551171 1885 1979 95 0.833 0.052 -0.171 2.836 0.049 0.484 4 551172 1901 1979 79 0.805 0.052 -0.013 3.061 0.060 0.321 5 551181 1909 1979 71 0.897 0.075 -0.169 2.629 0.091 0.127 6 551182 1909 1979 71 0.892 0.065 -0.057 2.428 0.069 0.355 7 551191 1902 1979 78 0.888 0.083 -0.235 3.350 0.082 0.395 8 551192 1900 1979 80 0.867 0.079 0.007 2.999 0.083 0.244 9 551201 1925 1979 55 0.840 0.066 0.229 2.217 0.067 0.461 10 551202 1924 1979 56 0.843 0.094 -0.676 4.041 0.077 0.603 11 551211 1906 1979 74 0.859 0.059 -0.702 4.291 0.075 0.119 12 551212 1909 1979 71 0.838 0.059 -0.109 3.959 0.057 0.519 13 551221 1909 1979 71 0.856 0.070 -0.496 3.298 0.075 0.367 14 551222 1912 1979 68 0.854 0.066 -0.613 4.497 0.081 0.144 15 551231 1908 1979 72 0.911 0.062 0.024 1.993 0.045 0.649 16 551232 1907 1979 73 0.890 0.057 -0.258 3.038 0.046 0.587 17 551241 1912 1979 68 0.855 0.054 -0.770 4.777 0.065 0.134 18 551242 1907 1979 73 0.863 0.064 -0.718 3.167 0.069 0.313 19 551251 1941 1979 39 0.870 0.074 -0.452 3.176 0.055 0.607 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 551252 1928 1979 52 0.808 0.087 0.318 2.564 0.069 0.659 21 551261 1915 1979 65 0.928 0.055 -0.654 3.123 0.049 0.370 22 551262 1911 1979 69 0.914 0.074 -0.462 2.615 0.068 0.439 23 551271 1914 1979 66 0.853 0.078 -0.242 3.687 0.072 0.514 24 551272 1905 1979 75 0.865 0.075 -0.333 3.471 0.066 0.546 25 551281 1908 1979 72 0.813 0.064 -0.496 3.301 0.076 0.269 26 551282 1904 1979 76 0.814 0.074 -0.002 2.732 0.068 0.505 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 26 FROM 1885 TO 1979 95 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 71 0.855 0.069 -0.285 3.211 0.069 0.405 STANDARD DEVIATION 11 0.038 0.012 0.311 0.684 0.014 0.164 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 71 0.856 0.068 -0.250 3.145 0.069 0.412 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 10 0.055 0.019 0.483 0.740 0.016 0.206 MINIMUM VALUE 39 0.776 0.052 -0.770 1.993 0.045 0.119 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 66 0.833 0.059 -0.496 2.732 0.060 0.313 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 76 0.888 0.078 -0.013 3.471 0.077 0.519 MAXIMUM VALUE 95 0.928 0.094 0.318 4.777 0.098 0.659 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.487 0.157 0.009 -0.435 3.549 -0.078 0.853 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.078 SERIES 551202 AND 551232 56 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.853 SERIES 551251 AND 551271 39 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 68.14 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. CORR 6. 136. 231. 300. 300. 325. 325. RBAR 0.598 0.451 0.367 0.485 0.492 0.363 0.401 SDEV 0.120 0.208 0.238 0.233 0.220 0.267 0.205 SERR 0.049 0.018 0.016 0.013 0.013 0.015 0.011 EPS 0.956 0.948 0.933 0.960 0.962 0.937 0.946 NSS 14.6 22.0 24.1 25.5 26.0 26.0 26.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1885 1979 95 0.860 0.050 0.054 3.528 0.052 0.348 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.135 -0.068 0.112 24 71 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.12 0.31 1.00 1.04 1.36 3.26 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.08 0.00 0.86 0.94 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 72. 8. 39. 68. 76. 95. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.345 0.378 0.285 0.243 0.239 0.128 0.186 0.079 0.062 0.056 PACF 0.345 0.295 0.114 0.054 0.075 -0.055 0.065 -0.050 -0.046 0.002 95% C.L. 0.205 0.228 0.253 0.267 0.276 0.284 0.287 0.292 0.293 0.293 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.224 0.242 0.312 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 551161 1 0.23885001 0.01675756 0.00000000 0.65216893 2 551162 1 0.17326963 0.03239219 0.00000000 0.74456197 3 551171 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00091825 0.87660247 4 551172 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00113072 0.84978580 5 551181 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00121965 0.94094968 6 551182 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00143260 0.94382697 7 551191 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00147485 0.94582087 8 551192 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00088080 0.90229744 9 551201 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00184921 0.89214140 10 551202 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00204204 0.90123379 11 551211 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00091255 0.89286929 12 551212 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00122569 0.88215292 13 551221 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00151979 0.91105032 14 551222 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00094362 0.88608426 15 551231 1 0.19211136 0.02430922 0.00000000 0.82109958 16 551232 1 0.11772770 0.08525446 0.00000000 0.87232560 17 551241 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00032106 0.86713290 18 551242 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00090769 0.89659816 19 551251 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00538866 0.97802967 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 551252 1 0.35999334 0.02368670 0.00000000 0.60372669 21 551261 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00060708 0.94772595 22 551262 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00212605 0.98803496 23 551271 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00090867 0.88331932 24 551272 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00143414 0.91969728 25 551281 1 0.15952942 0.14320287 0.00000000 0.79810965 26 551282 1 0.28889075 0.00977756 0.00000000 0.61148977 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 551161 1892 1979 88 1.000 0.089 -0.198 2.621 0.097 0.052 2 551162 1892 1979 88 1.000 0.089 -0.728 3.923 0.083 0.251 3 551171 1885 1979 95 1.000 0.054 0.166 3.040 0.049 0.340 4 551172 1901 1979 79 1.000 0.056 0.250 3.631 0.060 0.089 5 551181 1909 1979 71 1.000 0.079 -0.038 2.737 0.090 0.014 6 551182 1909 1979 71 1.000 0.065 0.036 3.044 0.068 0.174 7 551191 1902 1979 78 1.000 0.086 0.215 3.283 0.081 0.269 8 551192 1900 1979 80 1.000 0.088 0.280 3.055 0.082 0.172 9 551201 1925 1979 55 1.000 0.070 0.064 2.321 0.066 0.301 10 551202 1924 1979 56 1.000 0.105 -0.936 4.807 0.075 0.528 11 551211 1906 1979 74 1.000 0.065 -0.311 3.989 0.074 0.029 12 551212 1909 1979 71 1.000 0.063 0.214 4.376 0.056 0.396 13 551221 1909 1979 71 1.000 0.074 -0.021 3.523 0.074 0.204 14 551222 1912 1979 68 1.000 0.075 -0.301 3.876 0.080 0.065 15 551231 1908 1979 72 1.000 0.048 0.118 2.590 0.045 0.241 16 551232 1907 1979 73 1.000 0.058 -0.211 3.274 0.045 0.512 17 551241 1912 1979 68 1.000 0.061 -0.582 4.424 0.061 0.150 18 551242 1907 1979 73 1.000 0.072 -0.564 3.011 0.068 0.258 19 551251 1941 1979 39 1.000 0.048 -0.071 3.081 0.053 -0.091 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 551252 1928 1979 52 1.000 0.060 0.047 2.577 0.068 0.118 21 551261 1915 1979 65 1.000 0.059 -0.440 2.865 0.049 0.361 22 551262 1911 1979 69 1.000 0.067 0.027 2.922 0.067 0.192 23 551271 1914 1979 66 1.000 0.090 -0.011 3.183 0.071 0.483 24 551272 1905 1979 75 1.000 0.079 0.137 3.227 0.065 0.456 25 551281 1908 1979 72 1.000 0.071 -0.515 3.647 0.075 0.102 26 551282 1904 1979 76 1.000 0.074 0.048 2.743 0.067 0.276 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 71 1.000 0.071 -0.128 3.299 0.068 0.229 STANDARD DEVIATION 11 0.000 0.014 0.327 0.630 0.014 0.163 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 71 1.000 0.070 -0.016 3.132 0.068 0.223 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 8 0.000 0.019 0.429 0.782 0.016 0.238 MINIMUM VALUE 39 1.000 0.048 -0.936 2.321 0.045 -0.091 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 68 1.000 0.060 -0.311 2.865 0.060 0.102 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 76 1.000 0.079 0.118 3.647 0.075 0.340 MAXIMUM VALUE 95 1.000 0.105 0.280 4.807 0.097 0.528 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 551161 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 551162 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 551171 -67 63 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 551172 -67 52 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 551181 -67 47 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 551182 -67 47 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 551191 -67 52 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 551192 -67 53 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 551201 -67 36 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 551202 -67 37 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 551211 -67 49 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 551212 -67 47 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 551221 -67 47 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 551222 -67 45 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 551231 -67 48 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 551232 -67 48 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 551241 -67 45 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 551242 -67 48 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 551251 -67 26 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 551252 -67 34 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 551261 -67 43 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 551262 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 551271 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 551272 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 551281 -67 48 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 551282 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 551161 1892 1979 88 1.000 0.086 -0.121 2.769 0.097 -0.013 2 551162 1892 1979 88 0.999 0.081 -0.588 3.919 0.082 0.123 3 551171 1885 1979 95 1.000 0.049 0.012 2.733 0.049 0.193 4 551172 1901 1979 79 1.000 0.053 0.058 3.519 0.060 -0.034 5 551181 1909 1979 71 1.000 0.077 -0.114 2.649 0.090 -0.014 6 551182 1909 1979 71 1.000 0.063 -0.124 2.966 0.068 0.122 7 551191 1902 1979 78 1.000 0.076 0.048 3.076 0.081 0.030 8 551192 1900 1979 80 1.000 0.081 0.402 3.914 0.082 -0.017 9 551201 1925 1979 55 1.000 0.063 -0.211 2.853 0.066 0.160 10 551202 1924 1979 56 0.999 0.095 -0.941 5.421 0.074 0.442 11 551211 1906 1979 74 1.000 0.056 -0.609 3.578 0.075 -0.289 12 551212 1909 1979 71 1.000 0.060 0.044 3.920 0.056 0.326 13 551221 1909 1979 71 1.000 0.067 -0.385 3.475 0.074 0.010 14 551222 1912 1979 68 1.000 0.067 -0.200 3.844 0.080 -0.204 15 551231 1908 1979 72 1.000 0.045 0.065 2.827 0.045 0.146 16 551232 1907 1979 73 1.000 0.051 -0.137 3.704 0.045 0.376 17 551241 1912 1979 68 1.000 0.057 -0.576 4.220 0.061 -0.011 18 551242 1907 1979 73 1.000 0.062 -0.760 3.203 0.068 -0.024 19 551251 1941 1979 39 1.000 0.044 0.011 2.882 0.052 -0.234 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 551252 1928 1979 52 1.000 0.057 -0.088 2.551 0.067 0.004 21 551261 1915 1979 65 1.000 0.053 -0.142 2.849 0.048 0.269 22 551262 1911 1979 69 1.000 0.062 -0.131 3.212 0.067 0.063 23 551271 1914 1979 66 1.000 0.064 -0.091 2.770 0.071 0.058 24 551272 1905 1979 75 1.000 0.064 0.066 3.361 0.065 0.186 25 551281 1908 1979 72 1.000 0.066 -0.288 3.676 0.075 -0.017 26 551282 1904 1979 76 1.000 0.068 0.124 3.066 0.066 0.166 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 71 1.000 0.064 -0.180 3.344 0.068 0.070 STANDARD DEVIATION 11 0.000 0.013 0.303 0.636 0.014 0.174 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 71 1.000 0.063 -0.123 3.207 0.068 0.044 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 8 0.000 0.012 0.331 0.855 0.015 0.182 MINIMUM VALUE 39 0.999 0.044 -0.941 2.551 0.045 -0.289 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 68 1.000 0.056 -0.288 2.849 0.060 -0.017 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 76 1.000 0.068 0.044 3.704 0.075 0.166 MAXIMUM VALUE 95 1.000 0.095 0.402 5.421 0.097 0.442 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.414 0.130 0.007 -0.249 3.298 0.010 0.788 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.010 SERIES 551162 AND 551202 56 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.788 SERIES 551191 AND 551192 78 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 68.14 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. CORR 6. 136. 231. 300. 300. 325. 325. RBAR 0.606 0.465 0.398 0.526 0.476 0.366 0.347 SDEV 0.157 0.201 0.214 0.189 0.197 0.211 0.204 SERR 0.064 0.017 0.014 0.011 0.011 0.012 0.011 EPS 0.957 0.950 0.941 0.966 0.959 0.938 0.932 NSS 14.6 22.0 24.1 25.5 26.0 26.0 26.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1885 1979 95 1.001 0.045 -0.075 3.057 0.052 -0.079 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.086 -0.037 0.078 35 60 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.08 0.33 1.01 1.04 1.37 5.69 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.10 0.00 0.85 0.95 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.078 0.049 0.001 -0.006 0.095 -0.141 -0.019 -0.099 -0.090 -0.135 PACF -0.078 0.043 0.008 -0.007 0.094 -0.129 -0.047 -0.095 -0.104 -0.158 95% C.L. 0.205 0.206 0.207 0.207 0.207 0.209 0.213 0.213 0.215 0.216 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.036 0.074 0.038 -0.056 0.146 -0.105 -0.099 -0.141 -0.114 -0.092 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 -0.036 2 -0.033 0.073 3 -0.036 0.074 0.043 4 -0.034 0.078 0.041 -0.059 5 -0.025 0.073 0.030 -0.054 0.137 6 -0.013 0.068 0.033 -0.048 0.135 -0.092 7 -0.024 0.085 0.027 -0.043 0.144 -0.094 -0.125 8 -0.043 0.070 0.049 -0.050 0.148 -0.081 -0.129 -0.152 9 -0.057 0.059 0.041 -0.036 0.143 -0.076 -0.122 -0.156 -0.092 10 -0.068 0.041 0.027 -0.045 0.159 -0.080 -0.118 -0.150 -0.099 -0.112 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 417.99 419.87 421.37 423.19 424.86 425.05 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 426.25 426.75 426.52 427.71 428.51 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 0 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 551161 0 0.000 2 551162 0 0.016 3 551171 0 0.038 4 551172 0 0.001 5 551181 0 0.000 6 551182 0 0.015 7 551191 0 0.001 8 551192 0 0.000 9 551201 0 0.026 10 551202 0 0.196 11 551211 0 0.085 12 551212 0 0.108 13 551221 0 0.000 14 551222 0 0.042 15 551231 0 0.022 16 551232 0 0.142 17 551241 0 0.000 18 551242 0 0.001 19 551251 0 0.059 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 551252 0 0.000 21 551261 0 0.078 22 551262 0 0.004 23 551271 0 0.004 24 551272 0 0.036 25 551281 0 0.000 26 551282 0 0.028 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 0 0.035 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.050 MEDIAN 0 0.016 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.042 MINIMUM VALUE 0 0.000 LOWER HINGE 0 0.000 UPPER HINGE 0 0.042 MAXIMUM VALUE 0 0.196 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 551161 1892 1979 88 1.000 0.086 -0.121 2.769 0.097 -0.013 2 551162 1892 1979 88 1.000 0.081 -0.588 3.919 0.082 0.123 3 551171 1885 1979 95 1.000 0.049 0.012 2.733 0.049 0.193 4 551172 1901 1979 79 1.000 0.053 0.058 3.519 0.060 -0.034 5 551181 1909 1979 71 1.000 0.077 -0.114 2.649 0.090 -0.014 6 551182 1909 1979 71 1.000 0.063 -0.124 2.966 0.068 0.122 7 551191 1902 1979 78 1.000 0.076 0.048 3.076 0.081 0.030 8 551192 1900 1979 80 1.000 0.081 0.402 3.914 0.082 -0.017 9 551201 1925 1979 55 1.000 0.063 -0.211 2.853 0.066 0.160 10 551202 1924 1979 56 1.000 0.095 -0.941 5.421 0.074 0.442 11 551211 1906 1979 74 1.000 0.056 -0.609 3.578 0.075 -0.289 12 551212 1909 1979 71 1.000 0.060 0.044 3.920 0.056 0.326 13 551221 1909 1979 71 1.000 0.067 -0.385 3.475 0.074 0.010 14 551222 1912 1979 68 1.000 0.067 -0.200 3.844 0.080 -0.204 15 551231 1908 1979 72 1.000 0.045 0.065 2.827 0.044 0.146 16 551232 1907 1979 73 1.000 0.051 -0.137 3.704 0.045 0.376 17 551241 1912 1979 68 1.000 0.057 -0.576 4.220 0.061 -0.011 18 551242 1907 1979 73 1.000 0.062 -0.760 3.203 0.068 -0.024 19 551251 1941 1979 39 1.000 0.044 0.011 2.882 0.052 -0.234 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 551252 1928 1979 52 1.000 0.057 -0.088 2.551 0.067 0.004 21 551261 1915 1979 65 1.000 0.053 -0.142 2.849 0.048 0.269 22 551262 1911 1979 69 1.000 0.062 -0.131 3.212 0.067 0.063 23 551271 1914 1979 66 1.000 0.064 -0.091 2.770 0.071 0.058 24 551272 1905 1979 75 1.000 0.064 0.066 3.361 0.065 0.186 25 551281 1908 1979 72 1.000 0.066 -0.288 3.676 0.075 -0.017 26 551282 1904 1979 76 1.000 0.068 0.125 3.066 0.066 0.166 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 71 1.000 0.064 -0.180 3.344 0.068 0.070 STANDARD DEVIATION 11 0.000 0.013 0.303 0.636 0.014 0.174 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 71 1.000 0.063 -0.123 3.207 0.068 0.044 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 8 0.000 0.012 0.331 0.855 0.015 0.182 MINIMUM VALUE 39 1.000 0.044 -0.941 2.551 0.044 -0.289 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 68 1.000 0.056 -0.288 2.849 0.060 -0.017 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 76 1.000 0.068 0.044 3.704 0.075 0.166 MAXIMUM VALUE 95 1.000 0.095 0.402 5.421 0.097 0.442 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.414 0.130 0.007 -0.249 3.298 0.010 0.788 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.010 SERIES 551162 AND 551202 56 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.788 SERIES 551191 AND 551192 78 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 68.14 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. CORR 6. 136. 231. 300. 300. 325. 325. RBAR 0.606 0.465 0.398 0.526 0.476 0.366 0.347 SDEV 0.157 0.201 0.214 0.189 0.197 0.211 0.204 SERR 0.064 0.017 0.014 0.011 0.011 0.012 0.011 EPS 0.957 0.950 0.941 0.966 0.959 0.938 0.932 NSS 14.6 22.0 24.1 25.5 26.0 26.0 26.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1885 1979 95 1.001 0.045 -0.074 3.058 0.052 -0.079 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.088 -0.037 0.079 35 60 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.08 0.33 1.01 1.04 1.37 5.66 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.09 0.00 0.85 0.95 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.078 0.050 0.001 -0.005 0.095 -0.141 -0.019 -0.100 -0.091 -0.135 PACF -0.078 0.044 0.008 -0.007 0.094 -0.129 -0.048 -0.095 -0.105 -0.158 95% C.L. 0.205 0.206 0.207 0.207 0.207 0.209 0.213 0.213 0.215 0.216 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1885 1979 95 1.001 0.045 -0.074 3.058 0.052 -0.079 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.078 0.050 0.001 -0.005 0.095 -0.141 -0.019 -0.100 -0.091 -0.135 PACF -0.078 0.044 0.008 -0.007 0.094 -0.129 -0.048 -0.095 -0.105 -0.158 95% C.L. 0.205 0.206 0.207 0.207 0.207 0.209 0.213 0.213 0.215 0.216 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.75 MINUTES