RUN: SWIT004 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWIT152N.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWIT152N.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 20 10 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 551 1 Wylewald BE, Fi.Vergl.Pr DENSITY_MINIMUM PCAB - 551 2 Switzerland Norway spruce 570 4701-729 1904 1979 - 551 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 14 551372 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1927 1931 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 551311 1910 1979 70 0.227 0.022 2.025 11.849 0.087 0.249 2 551312 1904 1979 76 0.230 0.029 -0.062 2.408 0.083 0.690 3 551321 1905 1979 75 0.274 0.029 0.443 3.258 0.085 0.503 4 551322 1911 1979 69 0.251 0.029 0.581 3.585 0.086 0.523 5 551331 1907 1979 73 0.235 0.027 -0.030 2.161 0.074 0.639 6 551332 1911 1979 69 0.231 0.028 0.366 2.803 0.096 0.493 7 551341 1917 1979 63 0.227 0.026 0.795 3.762 0.092 0.507 8 551342 1911 1979 69 0.235 0.027 0.523 3.227 0.088 0.500 9 551351 1913 1979 67 0.280 0.033 -0.146 3.203 0.077 0.693 10 551352 1911 1979 69 0.231 0.026 0.142 2.903 0.089 0.426 11 551361 1915 1979 65 0.227 0.019 0.377 3.384 0.079 0.278 12 551362 1915 1979 65 0.234 0.019 0.789 4.049 0.077 0.267 13 551371 1911 1979 69 0.263 0.032 0.537 3.966 0.084 0.565 14 551372 1918 1979 62 0.253 0.036 -0.092 4.705 0.090 0.672 15 551381 1916 1979 64 0.226 0.020 0.017 2.908 0.080 0.364 16 551382 1916 1979 64 0.229 0.025 -0.108 3.024 0.072 0.701 17 551391 1912 1979 68 0.237 0.041 0.583 2.342 0.091 0.719 18 551392 1918 1979 62 0.224 0.031 0.901 3.846 0.082 0.732 19 551401 1917 1979 63 0.225 0.034 0.350 2.514 0.090 0.697 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 551402 1914 1979 66 0.230 0.026 0.806 3.463 0.082 0.507 21 551411 1912 1979 68 0.215 0.018 1.142 3.991 0.069 0.477 22 551412 1915 1979 65 0.216 0.022 -0.119 2.673 0.076 0.532 23 551421 1917 1979 63 0.220 0.020 0.305 2.994 0.088 0.258 24 551422 1920 1979 60 0.246 0.029 0.513 2.386 0.074 0.660 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 24 FROM 1904 TO 1979 76 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 67 0.236 0.027 0.443 3.558 0.083 0.527 STANDARD DEVIATION 4 0.017 0.006 0.497 1.878 0.007 0.157 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 66 0.231 0.027 0.410 3.215 0.084 0.515 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 5 0.015 0.008 0.692 1.066 0.011 0.230 MINIMUM VALUE 57 0.215 0.018 -0.146 2.161 0.069 0.249 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 63 0.227 0.022 -0.006 2.738 0.077 0.451 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 69 0.241 0.030 0.686 3.804 0.088 0.681 MAXIMUM VALUE 76 0.280 0.041 2.025 11.849 0.096 0.732 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.357 0.201 0.012 -0.616 3.177 -0.346 0.760 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.346 SERIES 551342 AND 551372 62 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.760 SERIES 551391 AND 551392 62 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 84.86 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. CORR 276. 276. 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.254 0.617 0.450 0.183 0.146 SDEV 0.249 0.185 0.225 0.283 0.261 SERR 0.015 0.011 0.014 0.017 0.016 EPS 0.891 0.975 0.952 0.843 0.804 NSS 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1904 1979 76 0.234 0.018 0.241 3.605 0.057 0.561 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.353 0.151 -0.009 30 46 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.27 0.55 1.00 1.06 1.61 2.19 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.12 0.00 0.86 0.98 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 66. 6. 60. 64. 69. 76. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.554 0.356 0.289 0.330 0.281 0.309 0.294 0.171 0.174 0.087 PACF 0.554 0.071 0.096 0.180 0.018 0.143 0.055 -0.122 0.079 -0.144 95% C.L. 0.229 0.291 0.313 0.327 0.344 0.356 0.370 0.382 0.386 0.390 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.313 0.554 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 551311 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00003482 0.22604969 2 551312 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00079617 0.19961053 3 551321 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00040199 0.25832433 4 551322 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00035258 0.23852941 5 551331 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00061027 0.21262558 6 551332 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00067044 0.20740409 7 551341 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00001152 0.22645673 8 551342 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00072817 0.26084825 9 551351 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00116290 0.24016282 10 551352 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00030910 0.22019608 11 551361 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00018226 0.22075480 12 551362 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00020935 0.22755288 13 551371 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00084691 0.23340154 14 551372 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00137033 0.20627186 15 551381 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00052518 0.20918155 16 551382 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00098169 0.19747023 17 551391 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00015593 0.23153205 18 551392 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00032485 0.21363829 19 551401 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00092646 0.19495648 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 551402 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00034047 0.21904895 21 551411 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00012368 0.21043898 22 551412 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00067002 0.19358173 23 551421 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00011137 0.21643625 24 551422 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00070186 0.22459322 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 551311 1910 1979 70 1.000 0.097 2.085 12.236 0.086 0.246 2 551312 1904 1979 76 1.000 0.102 -0.028 3.062 0.083 0.487 3 551321 1905 1979 75 1.000 0.103 0.397 3.169 0.084 0.434 4 551322 1911 1979 69 1.000 0.114 0.595 3.626 0.085 0.477 5 551331 1907 1979 73 1.000 0.100 -0.233 2.479 0.074 0.497 6 551332 1911 1979 69 1.000 0.104 0.531 3.260 0.095 0.320 7 551341 1917 1979 63 1.000 0.115 0.798 3.765 0.091 0.500 8 551342 1911 1979 69 1.000 0.094 0.658 3.481 0.087 0.276 9 551351 1913 1979 67 1.000 0.088 0.583 4.231 0.077 0.360 10 551352 1911 1979 69 1.000 0.110 0.705 3.922 0.088 0.381 11 551361 1915 1979 65 1.000 0.082 0.327 3.546 0.078 0.255 12 551362 1915 1979 65 1.000 0.080 0.652 3.538 0.076 0.236 13 551371 1911 1979 69 1.000 0.103 1.338 5.776 0.083 0.419 14 551372 1918 1979 62 1.000 0.108 0.274 4.106 0.092 0.348 15 551381 1916 1979 64 1.000 0.077 0.223 2.889 0.079 0.116 16 551382 1916 1979 64 1.000 0.079 0.327 4.567 0.072 0.301 17 551391 1912 1979 68 1.000 0.175 0.667 2.454 0.090 0.701 18 551392 1918 1979 62 1.000 0.135 1.015 4.151 0.081 0.698 19 551401 1917 1979 63 1.000 0.127 0.495 3.008 0.090 0.570 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 551402 1914 1979 66 1.000 0.110 1.061 4.640 0.081 0.435 21 551411 1912 1979 68 1.000 0.084 1.131 3.937 0.068 0.456 22 551412 1915 1979 65 1.000 0.081 0.120 2.997 0.075 0.336 23 551421 1917 1979 63 1.000 0.090 0.316 2.883 0.087 0.251 24 551422 1920 1979 60 1.000 0.111 0.893 3.851 0.074 0.572 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 67 1.000 0.103 0.622 3.982 0.082 0.403 STANDARD DEVIATION 4 0.000 0.022 0.485 1.911 0.007 0.146 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 66 1.000 0.103 0.589 3.586 0.083 0.400 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 5 0.000 0.024 0.524 1.094 0.011 0.203 MINIMUM VALUE 60 1.000 0.077 -0.233 2.454 0.068 0.116 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 63 1.000 0.086 0.322 3.035 0.076 0.289 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 69 1.000 0.111 0.845 4.128 0.087 0.492 MAXIMUM VALUE 76 1.000 0.175 2.085 12.236 0.095 0.701 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 551311 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 551312 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 551321 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 551322 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 551331 -67 48 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 551332 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 551341 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 551342 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 551351 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 551352 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 551361 -67 43 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 551362 -67 43 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 551371 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 551372 -67 41 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 551381 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 551382 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 551391 -67 45 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 551392 -67 41 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 551401 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 551402 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 551411 -67 45 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 551412 -67 43 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 551421 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 551422 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 551311 1910 1979 70 1.000 0.089 2.181 13.066 0.086 0.130 2 551312 1904 1979 76 0.999 0.085 -0.254 3.011 0.082 0.289 3 551321 1905 1979 75 1.000 0.087 0.270 3.419 0.084 0.266 4 551322 1911 1979 69 0.999 0.102 0.347 3.457 0.085 0.353 5 551331 1907 1979 73 0.999 0.089 -0.176 2.873 0.074 0.397 6 551332 1911 1979 69 0.999 0.087 0.415 2.758 0.095 0.046 7 551341 1917 1979 63 0.999 0.098 0.653 3.427 0.091 0.328 8 551342 1911 1979 69 1.000 0.091 0.722 3.629 0.087 0.226 9 551351 1913 1979 67 1.000 0.082 0.292 3.793 0.077 0.262 10 551352 1911 1979 69 1.000 0.086 0.037 3.891 0.088 0.075 11 551361 1915 1979 65 1.000 0.076 -0.076 3.552 0.078 0.154 12 551362 1915 1979 65 1.000 0.077 0.557 3.299 0.076 0.185 13 551371 1911 1979 69 1.000 0.092 1.260 5.067 0.084 0.285 14 551372 1918 1979 62 1.000 0.091 0.676 4.416 0.091 0.070 15 551381 1916 1979 64 1.000 0.073 0.185 2.724 0.079 0.043 16 551382 1916 1979 64 1.000 0.074 0.045 3.894 0.071 0.247 17 551391 1912 1979 68 0.997 0.133 1.058 4.598 0.090 0.516 18 551392 1918 1979 62 0.998 0.095 0.593 3.436 0.081 0.403 19 551401 1917 1979 63 0.999 0.103 0.080 2.651 0.089 0.359 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 551402 1914 1979 66 0.999 0.097 0.853 4.091 0.081 0.321 21 551411 1912 1979 68 1.000 0.077 1.001 3.868 0.068 0.363 22 551412 1915 1979 65 1.000 0.072 -0.159 2.856 0.075 0.212 23 551421 1917 1979 63 1.000 0.085 0.366 3.036 0.087 0.163 24 551422 1920 1979 60 0.999 0.080 -0.043 2.834 0.074 0.275 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 67 0.999 0.088 0.453 3.902 0.082 0.249 STANDARD DEVIATION 4 0.001 0.013 0.555 2.050 0.007 0.123 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 66 1.000 0.087 0.356 3.447 0.083 0.264 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 5 0.001 0.015 0.658 0.951 0.011 0.182 MINIMUM VALUE 60 0.997 0.072 -0.254 2.651 0.068 0.043 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 63 0.999 0.079 0.041 2.942 0.076 0.159 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 69 1.000 0.094 0.699 3.893 0.087 0.340 MAXIMUM VALUE 76 1.000 0.133 2.181 13.066 0.095 0.516 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.349 0.147 0.009 -0.358 2.994 -0.129 0.729 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.129 SERIES 551332 AND 551422 60 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.729 SERIES 551341 AND 551342 63 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 84.86 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. CORR 276. 276. 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.292 0.512 0.455 0.216 0.164 SDEV 0.223 0.217 0.230 0.253 0.233 SERR 0.013 0.013 0.014 0.015 0.014 EPS 0.908 0.962 0.952 0.868 0.825 NSS 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1904 1979 76 0.999 0.058 0.339 3.984 0.058 0.299 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.099 0.036 0.029 21 55 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.27 0.89 1.00 1.07 1.95 4.89 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.07 0.00 0.88 0.95 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.295 -0.045 -0.077 0.082 -0.037 0.027 0.035 -0.154 -0.136 -0.103 PACF 0.295 -0.145 -0.022 0.121 -0.127 0.104 0.001 -0.220 0.030 -0.122 95% C.L. 0.229 0.249 0.249 0.250 0.252 0.252 0.252 0.252 0.257 0.261 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.107 0.296 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.290 -0.047 -0.023 0.166 -0.027 -0.022 -0.097 -0.158 -0.084 -0.061 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.290 2 0.331 -0.142 3 0.336 -0.155 0.038 4 0.330 -0.128 -0.021 0.174 5 0.357 -0.131 -0.041 0.225 -0.157 6 0.369 -0.148 -0.038 0.235 -0.184 0.076 7 0.379 -0.173 -0.007 0.230 -0.204 0.125 -0.132 8 0.359 -0.154 -0.037 0.265 -0.205 0.099 -0.075 -0.150 9 0.367 -0.150 -0.042 0.275 -0.218 0.101 -0.068 -0.168 0.050 10 0.373 -0.171 -0.050 0.288 -0.245 0.134 -0.073 -0.187 0.095 -0.122 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 357.86 353.20 353.64 355.54 355.21 355.32 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 356.87 357.53 357.79 359.60 360.46 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.290 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 8.39 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 109.16 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.290 0.084 0.024 0.007 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 551311 1 0.019 0.130 2 551312 1 0.086 0.293 3 551321 1 0.077 0.274 4 551322 1 0.128 0.355 5 551331 1 0.169 0.409 6 551332 1 0.016 0.047 7 551341 1 0.156 0.332 8 551342 1 0.072 0.226 9 551351 1 0.076 0.275 10 551352 1 0.037 0.075 11 551361 1 0.027 0.156 12 551362 1 0.037 0.191 13 551371 1 0.091 0.286 14 551372 1 0.040 0.070 15 551381 1 0.018 0.045 16 551382 1 0.078 0.263 17 551391 1 0.310 0.532 18 551392 1 0.198 0.430 19 551401 1 0.133 0.359 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 551402 1 0.134 0.348 21 551411 1 0.137 0.366 22 551412 1 0.051 0.217 23 551421 1 0.036 0.166 24 551422 1 0.085 0.279 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.092 0.255 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.070 0.128 MEDIAN 1 0.077 0.274 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.096 0.190 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.016 0.045 LOWER HINGE 1 0.037 0.161 UPPER HINGE 1 0.133 0.351 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.310 0.532 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 551311 1910 1979 70 1.000 0.088 2.116 12.481 0.091 0.006 2 551312 1904 1979 76 1.000 0.081 -0.041 3.126 0.092 -0.002 3 551321 1905 1979 75 1.000 0.084 0.290 3.270 0.098 -0.020 4 551322 1911 1979 69 1.000 0.095 0.318 3.922 0.101 -0.014 5 551331 1907 1979 73 1.000 0.081 0.188 3.121 0.085 0.026 6 551332 1911 1979 69 1.000 0.086 0.396 2.760 0.098 -0.006 7 551341 1917 1979 63 1.000 0.093 0.630 3.354 0.103 0.071 8 551342 1911 1979 69 1.000 0.089 0.733 3.545 0.094 0.033 9 551351 1913 1979 67 1.000 0.078 -0.140 3.618 0.088 -0.008 10 551352 1911 1979 69 1.000 0.086 0.026 4.054 0.091 0.013 11 551361 1915 1979 65 1.000 0.075 -0.279 3.443 0.083 0.008 12 551362 1915 1979 65 1.000 0.076 0.401 3.038 0.086 -0.010 13 551371 1911 1979 69 1.000 0.089 0.947 4.144 0.096 0.028 14 551372 1918 1979 62 1.000 0.090 0.665 4.490 0.094 0.013 15 551381 1916 1979 64 1.000 0.073 0.226 2.670 0.081 0.006 16 551382 1916 1979 64 1.000 0.071 0.041 3.440 0.078 0.007 17 551391 1912 1979 68 1.000 0.112 1.160 7.132 0.116 0.088 18 551392 1918 1979 62 1.000 0.085 -0.109 3.162 0.096 -0.058 19 551401 1917 1979 63 1.000 0.096 0.146 3.309 0.104 0.024 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 551402 1914 1979 66 1.000 0.090 0.633 3.759 0.092 0.012 21 551411 1912 1979 68 1.000 0.072 0.783 3.781 0.079 0.020 22 551412 1915 1979 65 1.000 0.071 -0.287 2.770 0.082 -0.019 23 551421 1917 1979 63 1.000 0.084 0.425 3.121 0.091 0.014 24 551422 1920 1979 60 1.000 0.077 0.172 2.897 0.085 -0.027 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 67 1.000 0.084 0.393 3.934 0.092 0.009 STANDARD DEVIATION 4 0.000 0.010 0.528 2.026 0.009 0.030 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 66 1.000 0.084 0.304 3.397 0.091 0.008 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 5 0.000 0.013 0.616 0.730 0.012 0.031 MINIMUM VALUE 60 1.000 0.071 -0.287 2.670 0.078 -0.058 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 63 1.000 0.076 0.034 3.121 0.085 -0.009 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 69 1.000 0.089 0.649 3.852 0.097 0.022 MAXIMUM VALUE 76 1.000 0.112 2.116 12.481 0.116 0.088 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.344 0.139 0.008 -0.179 3.059 -0.097 0.739 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.097 SERIES 551332 AND 551422 60 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.739 SERIES 551341 AND 551342 63 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 84.86 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. CORR 276. 276. 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.300 0.458 0.408 0.250 0.183 SDEV 0.227 0.201 0.215 0.242 0.224 SERR 0.014 0.012 0.013 0.015 0.013 EPS 0.911 0.953 0.943 0.889 0.843 NSS 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1904 1979 76 0.998 0.054 0.132 3.479 0.061 0.066 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.123 0.041 0.021 22 54 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.29 0.75 1.00 1.11 1.85 3.52 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.08 0.00 0.88 0.96 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.065 -0.124 -0.118 0.140 -0.069 0.009 0.069 -0.168 -0.080 -0.042 PACF 0.065 -0.129 -0.103 0.143 -0.121 0.047 0.082 -0.238 0.014 -0.082 95% C.L. 0.229 0.230 0.234 0.237 0.241 0.242 0.242 0.243 0.249 0.251 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.008 -0.122 -0.120 0.154 -0.079 0.008 0.080 -0.169 -0.068 -0.034 PACF 0.008 -0.122 -0.120 0.143 -0.115 0.034 0.099 -0.233 0.004 -0.073 95% C.L. 0.229 0.229 0.233 0.236 0.241 0.243 0.243 0.244 0.250 0.251 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.016 0.008 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1904 1979 76 0.999 0.056 0.279 3.873 0.057 0.262 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.259 -0.060 -0.094 0.096 -0.041 0.003 0.023 -0.173 -0.128 -0.092 PACF 0.259 -0.136 -0.045 0.139 -0.134 0.072 0.017 -0.248 0.038 -0.115 95% C.L. 0.229 0.244 0.245 0.247 0.249 0.249 0.249 0.249 0.256 0.259 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.085 0.260 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.25 MINUTES