RUN: SWIT004 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWIT152P.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWIT152P.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 20 10 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 551 1 Wylewald BE, Fi.Vergl.Pr LATEWOOD_PERCENT PCAB - 551 2 Switzerland Norway spruce 570 4701-729 1904 1979 - 551 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES --- NO GAPS IN DATA FOUND --- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 551311 1910 1979 70 2.654 1.094 0.283 2.258 0.372 0.349 2 551312 1904 1979 76 2.520 0.944 0.194 2.454 0.412 0.192 3 551321 1905 1979 75 2.838 1.277 0.051 2.347 0.314 0.699 4 551322 1911 1979 69 2.755 1.304 0.096 2.105 0.424 0.539 5 551331 1907 1979 73 2.023 1.108 0.383 2.445 0.485 0.434 6 551332 1911 1979 69 2.209 1.159 0.067 2.276 0.377 0.704 7 551341 1917 1979 63 2.349 0.839 0.046 2.274 0.329 0.358 8 551342 1911 1979 69 2.467 1.051 -0.321 2.260 0.374 0.561 9 551351 1913 1979 67 3.477 1.078 -0.957 3.211 0.274 0.472 10 551352 1911 1979 69 2.489 1.245 0.509 2.391 0.376 0.578 11 551361 1915 1979 65 2.704 1.098 0.333 2.948 0.416 0.151 12 551362 1915 1979 65 2.460 1.138 0.628 3.040 0.495 0.089 13 551371 1911 1979 69 2.609 1.231 0.381 3.272 0.407 0.390 14 551372 1918 1979 62 3.328 1.548 -0.086 2.492 0.557 0.088 15 551381 1916 1979 64 1.632 0.904 0.942 3.106 0.462 0.476 16 551382 1916 1979 64 1.981 1.164 0.604 2.529 0.464 0.494 17 551391 1912 1979 68 2.308 1.205 0.031 2.200 0.448 0.595 18 551392 1918 1979 62 1.949 1.073 0.869 3.507 0.383 0.629 19 551401 1917 1979 63 1.682 0.924 0.410 2.425 0.479 0.452 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 551402 1914 1979 66 1.817 1.005 0.375 2.322 0.472 0.396 21 551411 1912 1979 68 2.117 0.759 0.391 2.911 0.339 0.267 22 551412 1915 1979 65 1.740 0.809 0.706 3.500 0.406 0.429 23 551421 1917 1979 63 2.193 0.970 0.163 2.419 0.381 0.428 24 551422 1920 1979 60 2.193 0.940 1.867 9.656 0.399 0.228 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 24 FROM 1904 TO 1979 76 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 67 2.354 1.078 0.332 2.931 0.410 0.417 STANDARD DEVIATION 4 0.472 0.179 0.513 1.495 0.065 0.177 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 66 2.328 1.086 0.354 2.450 0.407 0.432 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 5 0.629 0.243 0.498 0.774 0.088 0.241 MINIMUM VALUE 60 1.632 0.759 -0.957 2.105 0.274 0.088 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 63 2.002 0.942 0.059 2.299 0.375 0.308 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 69 2.631 1.185 0.557 3.073 0.463 0.550 MAXIMUM VALUE 76 3.477 1.548 1.867 9.656 0.557 0.704 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.401 0.150 0.009 -0.565 3.446 -0.088 0.727 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.088 SERIES 551421 AND 551422 60 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.727 SERIES 551331 AND 551332 69 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 84.86 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. CORR 276. 276. 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.262 0.411 0.235 0.086 0.153 SDEV 0.258 0.205 0.240 0.261 0.245 SERR 0.016 0.012 0.014 0.016 0.015 EPS 0.895 0.944 0.881 0.692 0.812 NSS 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1904 1979 76 2.168 0.809 -0.186 2.142 0.242 0.754 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.672 0.283 0.236 23 53 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.19 0.34 1.02 1.10 1.44 2.31 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.09 0.00 0.86 0.95 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 66. 6. 60. 64. 69. 76. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.744 0.788 0.690 0.697 0.669 0.624 0.629 0.610 0.554 0.522 PACF 0.744 0.526 0.064 0.102 0.122 -0.044 0.071 0.094 -0.135 -0.090 95% C.L. 0.229 0.333 0.420 0.476 0.527 0.570 0.605 0.638 0.668 0.692 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.686 0.350 0.532 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 551311 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.03174473 1.52663350 2 551312 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01672126 1.87623155 3 551321 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.04685434 1.05740178 4 551322 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01356668 2.28023863 5 551331 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02707639 1.02132416 6 551332 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.03947242 0.82730603 7 551341 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01661530 1.81688166 8 551342 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02372378 1.63676894 9 551351 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02697502 2.56001353 10 551352 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.03807234 1.15688825 11 551361 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02476049 1.88705766 12 551362 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02794056 1.53811538 13 551371 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.03275448 1.46214402 14 551372 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02713052 2.47345328 15 551381 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02987592 0.66153270 16 551382 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.04555289 0.50093746 17 551391 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.03238291 1.19117212 18 551392 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02559241 1.14287150 19 551401 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02647465 0.83439833 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 551402 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02594969 0.94735199 21 551411 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02118010 1.38649249 22 551412 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02715647 0.84429806 23 551421 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02780242 1.30381465 24 551422 1 2.89506245 0.34185803 0.00000000 2.07461047 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 551311 1910 1979 70 0.994 0.322 0.235 2.748 0.367 0.016 2 551312 1904 1979 76 0.997 0.340 0.112 2.569 0.407 0.065 3 551321 1905 1979 75 0.990 0.303 0.721 4.900 0.309 0.250 4 551322 1911 1979 69 0.998 0.468 0.137 2.100 0.417 0.480 5 551331 1907 1979 73 0.989 0.454 0.282 3.165 0.477 0.233 6 551332 1911 1979 69 0.979 0.402 -0.097 2.802 0.371 0.392 7 551341 1917 1979 63 0.998 0.342 0.300 2.235 0.323 0.297 8 551342 1911 1979 69 0.992 0.413 0.202 2.862 0.368 0.510 9 551351 1913 1979 67 0.997 0.299 -0.323 2.784 0.270 0.360 10 551352 1911 1979 69 0.994 0.393 0.647 2.874 0.371 0.307 11 551361 1915 1979 65 0.995 0.359 0.189 3.280 0.410 -0.037 12 551362 1915 1979 65 0.996 0.416 0.674 2.939 0.487 -0.117 13 551371 1911 1979 69 0.990 0.415 0.834 4.515 0.400 0.230 14 551372 1918 1979 62 0.996 0.442 -0.129 2.476 0.547 0.044 15 551381 1916 1979 64 0.999 0.412 0.480 2.267 0.453 0.092 16 551382 1916 1979 64 0.998 0.416 0.736 2.869 0.456 0.013 17 551391 1912 1979 68 0.983 0.473 0.347 2.650 0.442 0.418 18 551392 1918 1979 62 0.988 0.495 1.122 4.157 0.377 0.556 19 551401 1917 1979 63 0.981 0.464 0.539 2.813 0.471 0.245 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 551402 1914 1979 66 0.990 0.509 1.486 7.839 0.466 0.280 21 551411 1912 1979 68 0.998 0.309 0.652 3.854 0.333 0.024 22 551412 1915 1979 65 0.994 0.370 1.416 6.008 0.397 0.079 23 551421 1917 1979 63 0.994 0.388 0.486 3.275 0.376 0.224 24 551422 1920 1979 60 1.000 0.378 0.657 3.593 0.390 0.197 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 67 0.993 0.399 0.488 3.399 0.404 0.215 STANDARD DEVIATION 4 0.006 0.061 0.447 1.317 0.064 0.182 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 66 0.994 0.407 0.483 2.872 0.399 0.232 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 5 0.008 0.097 0.502 1.024 0.085 0.279 MINIMUM VALUE 60 0.979 0.299 -0.323 2.100 0.270 -0.117 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 63 0.990 0.350 0.196 2.699 0.369 0.054 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 69 0.997 0.448 0.697 3.724 0.455 0.334 MAXIMUM VALUE 76 1.000 0.509 1.486 7.839 0.547 0.556 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 551311 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 551312 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 551321 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 551322 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 551331 -67 48 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 551332 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 551341 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 551342 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 551351 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 551352 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 551361 -67 43 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 551362 -67 43 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 551371 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 551372 -67 41 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 551381 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 551382 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 551391 -67 45 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 551392 -67 41 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 551401 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 551402 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 551411 -67 45 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 551412 -67 43 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 551421 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 551422 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 551311 1910 1979 70 0.998 0.305 0.246 2.762 0.367 -0.127 2 551312 1904 1979 76 0.998 0.310 0.258 2.858 0.408 -0.211 3 551321 1905 1979 75 0.998 0.282 0.488 4.223 0.309 0.090 4 551322 1911 1979 69 0.995 0.443 1.825 9.437 0.415 0.004 5 551331 1907 1979 73 0.994 0.433 0.445 3.861 0.478 0.009 6 551332 1911 1979 69 0.993 0.386 0.769 5.895 0.370 0.140 7 551341 1917 1979 63 0.997 0.306 0.896 4.566 0.322 -0.032 8 551342 1911 1979 69 0.989 0.359 0.938 5.299 0.369 0.249 9 551351 1913 1979 67 0.993 0.247 0.295 3.449 0.269 0.018 10 551352 1911 1979 69 0.997 0.371 0.426 2.519 0.370 0.183 11 551361 1915 1979 65 0.997 0.318 0.265 4.086 0.415 -0.316 12 551362 1915 1979 65 0.998 0.402 0.716 3.369 0.488 -0.159 13 551371 1911 1979 69 0.995 0.357 0.482 3.861 0.402 -0.016 14 551372 1918 1979 62 0.996 0.412 -0.103 2.868 0.547 -0.211 15 551381 1916 1979 64 0.996 0.394 0.409 2.258 0.452 0.032 16 551382 1916 1979 64 0.994 0.400 0.757 2.978 0.455 -0.063 17 551391 1912 1979 68 0.992 0.441 1.225 6.187 0.444 0.263 18 551392 1918 1979 62 0.988 0.361 0.155 2.882 0.380 0.258 19 551401 1917 1979 63 0.995 0.402 0.583 2.917 0.470 -0.026 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 551402 1914 1979 66 0.992 0.496 2.117 11.740 0.464 0.209 21 551411 1912 1979 68 0.997 0.292 0.724 3.681 0.333 -0.063 22 551412 1915 1979 65 0.997 0.347 1.164 4.931 0.397 -0.046 23 551421 1917 1979 63 0.996 0.360 0.390 3.160 0.375 0.083 24 551422 1920 1979 60 0.995 0.341 0.725 4.840 0.388 0.007 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 67 0.995 0.365 0.675 4.359 0.404 0.011 STANDARD DEVIATION 4 0.003 0.059 0.510 2.214 0.064 0.155 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 66 0.995 0.361 0.536 3.771 0.399 0.005 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 5 0.003 0.088 0.490 1.986 0.084 0.178 MINIMUM VALUE 60 0.988 0.247 -0.103 2.258 0.269 -0.316 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 63 0.994 0.314 0.343 2.899 0.369 -0.063 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 69 0.997 0.402 0.832 4.885 0.453 0.115 MAXIMUM VALUE 76 0.998 0.496 2.117 11.740 0.547 0.263 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.185 0.148 0.009 -0.034 2.845 -0.207 0.582 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.207 SERIES 551351 AND 551382 64 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.582 SERIES 551361 AND 551362 65 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 84.86 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. CORR 276. 276. 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.209 0.261 0.218 0.098 0.158 SDEV 0.238 0.227 0.238 0.255 0.246 SERR 0.014 0.014 0.014 0.015 0.015 EPS 0.864 0.895 0.870 0.722 0.818 NSS 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1904 1979 76 0.978 0.196 -0.131 2.918 0.245 -0.002 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.125 0.072 0.213 27 49 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.62 0.97 1.00 1.09 2.05 9.16 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.09 0.00 0.87 0.97 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.002 0.144 -0.135 -0.054 0.000 -0.218 0.049 0.065 -0.044 -0.110 PACF -0.002 0.144 -0.137 -0.076 0.043 -0.228 0.035 0.145 -0.144 -0.165 95% C.L. 0.229 0.229 0.234 0.238 0.239 0.239 0.249 0.250 0.250 0.251 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.057 0.135 -0.209 -0.100 -0.101 -0.155 0.045 0.035 -0.012 -0.132 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 -0.057 2 -0.049 0.132 3 -0.023 0.122 -0.199 4 -0.051 0.140 -0.202 -0.141 5 -0.060 0.127 -0.193 -0.144 -0.063 6 -0.072 0.100 -0.229 -0.120 -0.074 -0.188 7 -0.073 0.099 -0.230 -0.121 -0.074 -0.188 -0.005 8 -0.072 0.105 -0.228 -0.118 -0.066 -0.191 -0.003 0.031 9 -0.069 0.105 -0.250 -0.126 -0.080 -0.219 0.009 0.023 -0.120 10 -0.094 0.110 -0.248 -0.171 -0.097 -0.245 -0.043 0.045 -0.134 -0.209 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 530.48 532.23 532.90 531.84 532.32 534.02 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 533.29 535.29 537.21 538.11 536.72 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 0 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 551311 0 0.017 2 551312 0 0.046 3 551321 0 0.009 4 551322 0 0.000 5 551331 0 0.000 6 551332 0 0.021 7 551341 0 0.001 8 551342 0 0.064 9 551351 0 0.000 10 551352 0 0.034 11 551361 0 0.100 12 551362 0 0.026 13 551371 0 0.000 14 551372 0 0.047 15 551381 0 0.001 16 551382 0 0.004 17 551391 0 0.071 18 551392 0 0.067 19 551401 0 0.001 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 551402 0 0.044 21 551411 0 0.004 22 551412 0 0.002 23 551421 0 0.008 24 551422 0 0.000 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 0 0.024 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.029 MEDIAN 0 0.008 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.044 MINIMUM VALUE 0 0.000 LOWER HINGE 0 0.001 UPPER HINGE 0 0.045 MAXIMUM VALUE 0 0.100 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 551311 1910 1979 70 1.000 0.305 0.246 2.762 0.367 -0.127 2 551312 1904 1979 76 1.000 0.310 0.258 2.858 0.407 -0.211 3 551321 1905 1979 75 1.000 0.282 0.488 4.223 0.308 0.090 4 551322 1911 1979 69 1.000 0.443 1.825 9.437 0.413 0.004 5 551331 1907 1979 73 1.000 0.433 0.445 3.861 0.475 0.009 6 551332 1911 1979 69 1.000 0.386 0.769 5.895 0.366 0.140 7 551341 1917 1979 63 1.000 0.306 0.896 4.566 0.321 -0.032 8 551342 1911 1979 69 1.000 0.359 0.938 5.299 0.364 0.249 9 551351 1913 1979 67 1.000 0.247 0.295 3.449 0.267 0.018 10 551352 1911 1979 69 1.000 0.371 0.426 2.519 0.369 0.183 11 551361 1915 1979 65 1.000 0.318 0.265 4.086 0.414 -0.316 12 551362 1915 1979 65 1.000 0.402 0.716 3.369 0.486 -0.159 13 551371 1911 1979 69 1.000 0.357 0.482 3.861 0.400 -0.016 14 551372 1918 1979 62 1.000 0.412 -0.103 2.868 0.544 -0.211 15 551381 1916 1979 64 1.000 0.394 0.409 2.258 0.450 0.032 16 551382 1916 1979 64 1.000 0.400 0.757 2.978 0.452 -0.063 17 551391 1912 1979 68 1.000 0.441 1.225 6.187 0.440 0.263 18 551392 1918 1979 62 1.000 0.361 0.155 2.882 0.375 0.258 19 551401 1917 1979 63 1.000 0.402 0.583 2.917 0.468 -0.026 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 551402 1914 1979 66 1.000 0.496 2.117 11.740 0.459 0.209 21 551411 1912 1979 68 1.000 0.292 0.724 3.681 0.331 -0.063 22 551412 1915 1979 65 1.000 0.347 1.164 4.931 0.396 -0.046 23 551421 1917 1979 63 1.000 0.360 0.390 3.160 0.373 0.083 24 551422 1920 1979 60 1.000 0.341 0.725 4.840 0.386 0.007 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 67 1.000 0.365 0.675 4.359 0.401 0.011 STANDARD DEVIATION 4 0.000 0.059 0.510 2.214 0.063 0.155 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 66 1.000 0.361 0.536 3.771 0.398 0.005 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 5 0.000 0.088 0.490 1.986 0.085 0.178 MINIMUM VALUE 60 1.000 0.247 -0.103 2.258 0.267 -0.316 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 63 1.000 0.314 0.343 2.899 0.366 -0.063 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 69 1.000 0.402 0.832 4.885 0.451 0.115 MAXIMUM VALUE 76 1.000 0.496 2.117 11.740 0.544 0.263 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.185 0.148 0.009 -0.034 2.845 -0.207 0.582 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.207 SERIES 551351 AND 551382 64 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.582 SERIES 551361 AND 551362 65 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 84.86 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. CORR 276. 276. 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.209 0.261 0.218 0.098 0.158 SDEV 0.238 0.227 0.238 0.255 0.246 SERR 0.014 0.014 0.014 0.015 0.015 EPS 0.864 0.895 0.870 0.722 0.818 NSS 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1904 1979 76 0.982 0.196 -0.128 2.918 0.244 -0.001 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.124 0.071 0.213 28 48 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.44 0.98 1.01 1.09 2.07 9.06 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.09 0.00 0.87 0.97 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.001 0.146 -0.135 -0.054 0.001 -0.216 0.051 0.065 -0.044 -0.110 PACF -0.001 0.146 -0.138 -0.076 0.044 -0.226 0.037 0.146 -0.144 -0.164 95% C.L. 0.229 0.229 0.234 0.238 0.239 0.239 0.249 0.250 0.250 0.251 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1904 1979 76 0.982 0.196 -0.128 2.918 0.244 -0.001 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.001 0.146 -0.135 -0.054 0.001 -0.216 0.051 0.065 -0.044 -0.110 PACF -0.001 0.146 -0.138 -0.076 0.044 -0.226 0.037 0.146 -0.144 -0.164 95% C.L. 0.229 0.229 0.234 0.238 0.239 0.239 0.249 0.250 0.250 0.251 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.23 MINUTES