RUN: SWIT004 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWIT152W.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWIT152W.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 20 10 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 551 1 Wylewald BE, Fi.Vergl.Pr WIDTH_RING PCAB - 551 2 Switzerland Norway spruce 570 4701-729 1904 1979 - 551 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES --- NO GAPS IN DATA FOUND --- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 551311 1910 1979 70 2.816 0.898 -0.146 2.659 0.239 0.564 2 551312 1904 1979 76 2.407 0.678 0.114 2.556 0.178 0.723 3 551321 1905 1979 75 1.745 0.899 1.746 6.369 0.201 0.809 4 551322 1911 1979 69 1.933 0.664 0.468 2.560 0.182 0.708 5 551331 1907 1979 73 2.566 1.068 0.812 3.094 0.293 0.542 6 551332 1911 1979 69 2.538 1.230 1.087 3.836 0.228 0.799 7 551341 1917 1979 63 2.196 0.885 1.710 5.811 0.231 0.628 8 551342 1911 1979 69 2.737 1.666 2.209 7.338 0.208 0.866 9 551351 1913 1979 67 1.487 1.382 2.602 8.522 0.220 0.873 10 551352 1911 1979 69 2.694 1.138 1.792 6.658 0.198 0.814 11 551361 1915 1979 65 1.971 0.966 2.095 8.311 0.257 0.711 12 551362 1915 1979 65 2.190 0.965 1.931 8.073 0.209 0.722 13 551371 1911 1979 69 1.613 1.228 1.185 3.401 0.368 0.889 14 551372 1918 1979 62 3.081 1.655 0.740 2.860 0.310 0.678 15 551381 1916 1979 64 3.540 0.861 0.277 2.526 0.169 0.608 16 551382 1916 1979 64 2.570 1.171 0.612 3.053 0.224 0.763 17 551391 1912 1979 68 2.145 1.072 1.017 3.082 0.166 0.901 18 551392 1918 1979 62 2.580 0.976 1.031 3.891 0.182 0.715 19 551401 1917 1979 63 2.813 1.527 1.044 3.312 0.282 0.788 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 551402 1914 1979 66 2.737 1.554 1.024 3.392 0.279 0.851 21 551411 1912 1979 68 2.252 0.892 0.476 2.850 0.217 0.781 22 551412 1915 1979 65 2.301 0.909 0.480 2.578 0.195 0.782 23 551421 1917 1979 63 2.692 1.091 0.676 2.854 0.237 0.746 24 551422 1920 1979 60 1.887 1.162 0.260 2.120 0.289 0.883 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 24 FROM 1904 TO 1979 76 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 67 2.395 1.106 1.052 4.238 0.232 0.756 STANDARD DEVIATION 4 0.482 0.282 0.726 2.114 0.050 0.101 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 66 2.472 1.070 1.021 3.203 0.222 0.772 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 5 0.658 0.330 1.250 3.335 0.072 0.123 MINIMUM VALUE 60 1.487 0.664 -0.146 2.120 0.166 0.542 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 63 2.058 0.899 0.478 2.755 0.196 0.710 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 69 2.716 1.229 1.728 6.090 0.268 0.833 MAXIMUM VALUE 76 3.540 1.666 2.602 8.522 0.368 0.901 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.508 0.176 0.011 -0.317 2.655 0.014 0.903 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.014 SERIES 551342 AND 551422 60 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.903 SERIES 551351 AND 551361 65 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 84.86 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. CORR 276. 276. 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.277 0.555 0.274 0.152 0.201 SDEV 0.272 0.278 0.299 0.290 0.279 SERR 0.016 0.017 0.018 0.017 0.017 EPS 0.902 0.968 0.900 0.812 0.858 NSS 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1904 1979 76 2.468 0.858 0.509 2.168 0.127 0.919 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.431 0.174 0.416 34 42 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.21 0.51 1.00 1.07 1.59 6.18 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.09 0.00 0.88 0.97 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 66. 6. 60. 64. 69. 76. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.907 0.856 0.807 0.747 0.696 0.664 0.621 0.585 0.568 0.527 PACF 0.907 0.189 0.037 -0.071 -0.009 0.097 -0.028 0.000 0.091 -0.092 95% C.L. 0.229 0.373 0.465 0.534 0.586 0.628 0.664 0.694 0.719 0.743 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.846 0.683 0.252 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 551311 1 1.64890122 0.04320506 0.00000000 2.30798984 2 551312 1 1.86343515 0.01535075 0.00000000 1.31557548 3 551321 1 3.15909791 0.06131644 0.00000000 1.08555388 4 551322 1 1.67148626 0.10858328 0.00000000 1.72210574 5 551331 1 3.94275451 0.43126416 0.00000000 2.46544957 6 551332 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.04227621 4.01749372 7 551341 1 3.48610806 0.15302926 0.00000000 1.86126137 8 551342 1 7.58906126 0.14128819 0.00000000 2.01268339 9 551351 1 6.83837605 0.14306863 0.00000000 0.82377899 10 551352 1 4.21841288 0.10526204 0.00000000 2.14338946 11 551361 1 4.78457260 0.18260737 0.00000000 1.60336006 12 551362 1 5.97202873 0.32962885 0.00000000 1.95484436 13 551371 1 4.42464161 0.05641632 0.00000000 0.53058004 14 551372 1 4.26984549 0.03778560 0.00000000 1.46425033 15 551381 1 1.64433455 0.04678479 0.00000000 3.03076100 16 551382 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.04936973 4.17404747 17 551391 1 2.94589758 0.03313591 0.00000000 0.99395907 18 551392 1 1.17941868 0.05233982 0.00000000 2.24026322 19 551401 1 4.78093529 0.06338763 0.00000000 1.67461097 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 551402 1 4.92344236 0.07011261 0.00000000 1.72037756 21 551411 1 3.00516987 0.02247883 0.00000000 0.72979730 22 551412 1 3.90019226 0.01785697 0.00000000 0.01426985 23 551421 1 3.21382284 0.04832903 0.00000000 1.71041763 24 551422 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.06159544 3.76532769 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 551311 1910 1979 70 1.000 0.306 0.418 3.898 0.235 0.458 2 551312 1904 1979 76 1.000 0.253 0.733 3.768 0.174 0.611 3 551321 1905 1979 75 1.001 0.264 0.584 3.850 0.197 0.515 4 551322 1911 1979 69 1.000 0.314 1.076 4.653 0.179 0.634 5 551331 1907 1979 73 1.000 0.398 0.903 3.598 0.285 0.539 6 551332 1911 1979 69 1.012 0.359 0.948 3.871 0.225 0.663 7 551341 1917 1979 63 1.000 0.272 0.877 3.679 0.223 0.398 8 551342 1911 1979 69 1.000 0.327 1.314 5.244 0.197 0.581 9 551351 1913 1979 67 0.995 0.335 0.459 3.179 0.216 0.732 10 551352 1911 1979 69 1.000 0.254 0.038 2.598 0.192 0.614 11 551361 1915 1979 65 1.000 0.290 0.207 2.766 0.243 0.440 12 551362 1915 1979 65 1.000 0.315 0.629 4.512 0.198 0.688 13 551371 1911 1979 69 0.998 0.434 0.819 3.864 0.363 0.482 14 551372 1918 1979 62 1.001 0.490 2.327 10.308 0.306 0.375 15 551381 1916 1979 64 1.000 0.222 0.839 4.081 0.166 0.473 16 551382 1916 1979 64 1.004 0.304 0.529 2.542 0.216 0.578 17 551391 1912 1979 68 1.002 0.376 1.136 3.698 0.164 0.803 18 551392 1918 1979 62 1.000 0.369 1.417 5.573 0.178 0.655 19 551401 1917 1979 63 1.001 0.368 0.705 3.249 0.276 0.555 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 551402 1914 1979 66 1.001 0.425 1.366 5.263 0.274 0.649 21 551411 1912 1979 68 1.000 0.285 0.409 2.942 0.213 0.571 22 551412 1915 1979 65 1.000 0.235 0.932 5.567 0.192 0.471 23 551421 1917 1979 63 1.000 0.284 0.323 3.150 0.232 0.404 24 551422 1920 1979 60 1.206 1.318 6.494 41.482 0.314 0.395 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 67 1.009 0.367 1.062 5.722 0.228 0.553 STANDARD DEVIATION 4 0.042 0.213 1.252 7.778 0.052 0.115 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 66 1.000 0.314 0.829 3.857 0.216 0.563 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 5 0.001 0.094 0.612 1.735 0.066 0.177 MINIMUM VALUE 60 0.995 0.222 0.038 2.542 0.164 0.375 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 63 1.000 0.278 0.494 3.214 0.192 0.465 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 69 1.001 0.372 1.106 4.948 0.259 0.642 MAXIMUM VALUE 76 1.206 1.318 6.494 41.482 0.363 0.803 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 551311 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 551312 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 551321 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 551322 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 551331 -67 48 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 551332 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 551341 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 551342 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 551351 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 551352 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 551361 -67 43 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 551362 -67 43 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 551371 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 551372 -67 41 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 551381 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 551382 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 551391 -67 45 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 551392 -67 41 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 551401 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 551402 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 551411 -67 45 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 551412 -67 43 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 551421 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 551422 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 551311 1910 1979 70 0.996 0.282 0.341 4.472 0.235 0.407 2 551312 1904 1979 76 0.999 0.246 0.679 3.616 0.174 0.591 3 551321 1905 1979 75 0.996 0.235 0.608 3.602 0.197 0.402 4 551322 1911 1979 69 0.992 0.261 0.830 4.195 0.178 0.530 5 551331 1907 1979 73 0.988 0.331 1.013 3.876 0.286 0.402 6 551332 1911 1979 69 0.988 0.264 0.808 3.745 0.223 0.450 7 551341 1917 1979 63 0.998 0.254 0.631 3.141 0.222 0.358 8 551342 1911 1979 69 0.995 0.249 0.414 3.348 0.195 0.411 9 551351 1913 1979 67 0.996 0.268 -0.403 3.020 0.215 0.562 10 551352 1911 1979 69 0.996 0.229 -0.193 2.452 0.191 0.521 11 551361 1915 1979 65 0.996 0.277 0.448 3.169 0.243 0.365 12 551362 1915 1979 65 0.996 0.270 0.613 3.904 0.198 0.512 13 551371 1911 1979 69 0.997 0.417 0.604 3.444 0.364 0.433 14 551372 1918 1979 62 0.991 0.448 2.132 9.342 0.306 0.329 15 551381 1916 1979 64 0.998 0.194 0.566 3.455 0.165 0.350 16 551382 1916 1979 64 0.996 0.281 0.364 2.468 0.216 0.542 17 551391 1912 1979 68 0.986 0.278 1.269 4.582 0.163 0.715 18 551392 1918 1979 62 0.986 0.303 1.390 5.435 0.174 0.559 19 551401 1917 1979 63 0.992 0.329 0.811 3.260 0.274 0.500 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 551402 1914 1979 66 0.994 0.399 1.325 5.196 0.275 0.622 21 551411 1912 1979 68 0.998 0.276 0.387 2.894 0.213 0.546 22 551412 1915 1979 65 0.997 0.216 0.625 4.766 0.192 0.376 23 551421 1917 1979 63 0.995 0.255 0.434 3.082 0.231 0.313 24 551422 1920 1979 60 1.003 0.422 1.106 7.387 0.305 0.417 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 67 0.995 0.291 0.700 4.077 0.226 0.467 STANDARD DEVIATION 4 0.004 0.067 0.518 1.556 0.052 0.103 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 66 0.996 0.273 0.619 3.609 0.216 0.442 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 5 0.005 0.065 0.497 1.371 0.067 0.155 MINIMUM VALUE 60 0.986 0.194 -0.403 2.452 0.163 0.313 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 63 0.992 0.252 0.424 3.155 0.191 0.389 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 69 0.997 0.316 0.921 4.527 0.259 0.544 MAXIMUM VALUE 76 1.003 0.448 2.132 9.342 0.364 0.715 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.233 0.177 0.011 -0.162 2.834 -0.292 0.681 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.292 SERIES 551371 AND 551391 68 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.681 SERIES 551311 AND 551312 70 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 84.86 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. CORR 276. 276. 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.273 0.357 0.276 0.185 0.195 SDEV 0.278 0.309 0.300 0.265 0.269 SERR 0.017 0.019 0.018 0.016 0.016 EPS 0.900 0.930 0.901 0.845 0.853 NSS 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1904 1979 76 0.982 0.140 -0.003 2.964 0.120 0.421 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.353 0.202 0.026 36 40 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.26 0.35 1.01 1.11 1.46 4.03 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.09 0.00 0.88 0.97 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.416 0.264 0.251 0.022 -0.049 -0.059 -0.188 -0.191 -0.012 -0.135 PACF 0.416 0.111 0.131 -0.172 -0.071 -0.031 -0.133 -0.058 0.163 -0.126 95% C.L. 0.229 0.266 0.280 0.291 0.291 0.292 0.292 0.299 0.305 0.305 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.184 0.417 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.400 0.203 0.233 0.018 -0.060 -0.037 -0.172 -0.168 0.014 -0.097 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.400 2 0.380 0.051 3 0.371 -0.011 0.162 4 0.397 -0.012 0.221 -0.160 5 0.388 0.000 0.221 -0.138 -0.057 6 0.387 -0.002 0.225 -0.138 -0.050 -0.019 7 0.384 -0.009 0.205 -0.106 -0.050 0.036 -0.142 8 0.380 -0.008 0.203 -0.109 -0.043 0.036 -0.129 -0.035 9 0.384 0.010 0.198 -0.103 -0.027 0.007 -0.128 -0.088 0.141 10 0.399 0.001 0.185 -0.102 -0.030 -0.003 -0.107 -0.087 0.182 -0.106 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 508.35 497.11 498.91 498.89 498.92 500.67 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 502.64 503.09 505.00 505.48 506.62 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.400 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 15.99 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 119.04 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.400 0.160 0.064 0.026 0.010 0.004 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.0001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 551311 1 0.171 0.409 2 551312 1 0.353 0.593 3 551321 1 0.186 0.402 4 551322 1 0.286 0.531 5 551331 1 0.171 0.402 6 551332 1 0.207 0.455 7 551341 1 0.188 0.358 8 551342 1 0.184 0.424 9 551351 1 0.319 0.564 10 551352 1 0.279 0.525 11 551361 1 0.144 0.374 12 551362 1 0.320 0.554 13 551371 1 0.191 0.437 14 551372 1 0.129 0.331 15 551381 1 0.150 0.353 16 551382 1 0.310 0.547 17 551391 1 0.526 0.719 18 551392 1 0.313 0.559 19 551401 1 0.260 0.500 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 551402 1 0.432 0.624 21 551411 1 0.299 0.546 22 551412 1 0.151 0.382 23 551421 1 0.104 0.315 24 551422 1 0.253 0.486 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.247 0.475 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.102 0.104 MEDIAN 1 0.230 0.471 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.141 0.159 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.104 0.315 LOWER HINGE 1 0.171 0.392 UPPER HINGE 1 0.312 0.550 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.526 0.719 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 551311 1910 1979 70 1.000 0.258 0.703 5.012 0.270 0.029 2 551312 1904 1979 76 1.000 0.198 0.567 3.763 0.223 -0.031 3 551321 1905 1979 75 1.000 0.215 0.994 4.456 0.218 0.066 4 551322 1911 1979 69 1.000 0.221 0.479 4.154 0.231 -0.040 5 551331 1907 1979 73 1.000 0.303 1.164 4.469 0.324 0.043 6 551332 1911 1979 69 1.000 0.235 0.896 4.118 0.252 0.001 7 551341 1917 1979 63 1.000 0.237 0.396 3.425 0.261 0.092 8 551342 1911 1979 69 1.000 0.225 0.060 3.645 0.234 0.031 9 551351 1913 1979 67 1.000 0.221 -0.218 2.968 0.263 -0.017 10 551352 1911 1979 69 1.000 0.195 0.241 2.517 0.235 -0.035 11 551361 1915 1979 65 1.000 0.257 0.499 3.677 0.287 0.034 12 551362 1915 1979 65 1.000 0.224 0.192 3.543 0.244 0.114 13 551371 1911 1979 69 1.000 0.375 0.277 3.501 0.433 0.004 14 551372 1918 1979 62 1.000 0.423 2.653 12.794 0.340 0.049 15 551381 1916 1979 64 1.000 0.181 0.887 3.641 0.187 0.057 16 551382 1916 1979 64 1.000 0.235 0.801 3.269 0.251 0.066 17 551391 1912 1979 68 1.000 0.193 0.368 3.282 0.204 0.105 18 551392 1918 1979 62 1.000 0.251 0.872 7.038 0.229 0.022 19 551401 1917 1979 63 1.000 0.285 0.337 2.971 0.320 0.055 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 551402 1914 1979 66 1.000 0.311 0.092 4.366 0.343 0.162 21 551411 1912 1979 68 1.000 0.231 0.453 3.399 0.266 -0.009 22 551412 1915 1979 65 1.000 0.199 0.333 3.840 0.237 -0.030 23 551421 1917 1979 63 1.000 0.242 0.208 3.103 0.254 0.024 24 551422 1920 1979 60 1.000 0.369 1.524 7.807 0.366 0.011 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 67 1.000 0.254 0.616 4.365 0.270 0.034 STANDARD DEVIATION 4 0.000 0.062 0.586 2.159 0.058 0.051 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 66 1.000 0.235 0.466 3.661 0.253 0.030 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 5 0.000 0.053 0.620 1.071 0.071 0.066 MINIMUM VALUE 60 1.000 0.181 -0.218 2.517 0.187 -0.040 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 63 1.000 0.218 0.259 3.340 0.232 -0.004 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 69 1.000 0.271 0.879 4.411 0.304 0.062 MAXIMUM VALUE 76 1.000 0.423 2.653 12.794 0.433 0.162 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.240 0.148 0.009 -0.073 3.278 -0.253 0.621 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.253 SERIES 551371 AND 551391 68 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.621 SERIES 551401 AND 551402 63 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 84.86 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. CORR 276. 276. 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.245 0.328 0.215 0.240 0.266 SDEV 0.218 0.229 0.247 0.213 0.226 SERR 0.013 0.014 0.015 0.013 0.014 EPS 0.886 0.921 0.868 0.884 0.897 NSS 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1904 1979 76 0.989 0.122 0.145 3.734 0.142 -0.081 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.252 0.143 0.049 35 41 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.34 0.59 1.01 1.12 1.71 3.57 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.93 0.07 0.00 0.89 0.95 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.080 -0.029 0.180 -0.070 -0.060 0.028 -0.112 -0.172 0.147 -0.072 PACF -0.080 -0.036 0.176 -0.044 -0.062 -0.015 -0.098 -0.179 0.116 -0.028 95% C.L. 0.229 0.231 0.231 0.238 0.239 0.240 0.240 0.243 0.249 0.254 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.003 -0.022 0.175 -0.060 -0.064 0.014 -0.125 -0.172 0.129 -0.062 PACF -0.003 -0.022 0.175 -0.063 -0.058 -0.018 -0.110 -0.162 0.127 -0.035 95% C.L. 0.229 0.229 0.230 0.236 0.237 0.238 0.238 0.242 0.248 0.252 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.001 -0.003 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1904 1979 76 0.988 0.133 0.038 2.934 0.114 0.410 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.405 0.186 0.196 0.002 -0.068 -0.072 -0.177 -0.187 0.008 -0.076 PACF 0.405 0.027 0.134 -0.150 -0.048 -0.047 -0.125 -0.064 0.159 -0.105 95% C.L. 0.229 0.264 0.271 0.278 0.278 0.279 0.280 0.286 0.292 0.293 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.166 0.407 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.23 MINUTES