RUN: SWIT004 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWIT153E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWIT153E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 20 10 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 552 1 Pieterlen BE, Tanne abst WIDTH_EARLY ABAL - 552 2 Switzerland silver fir, European fir 450 4710-720 1905 1979 - 552 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 2 552012 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1970 1970 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 552052 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1970 1971 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 552062 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1972 1972 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 552101 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 2 GAPS / 1925 1928 / 1974 1974 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 20 552102 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1974 1974 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 22 552112 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1974 1974 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 552011 1919 1972 54 2.448 1.514 0.446 2.357 0.263 0.879 2 552012 1917 1972 56 2.293 1.460 0.040 1.927 0.334 0.827 3 552021 1915 1977 63 1.463 0.843 0.324 2.447 0.343 0.749 4 552022 1926 1978 53 1.970 1.390 0.926 3.377 0.366 0.778 5 552031 1910 1979 70 1.984 1.195 0.487 2.122 0.271 0.854 6 552032 1914 1979 66 1.844 1.167 0.065 1.827 0.288 0.890 7 552041 1906 1970 65 1.610 0.970 0.483 2.381 0.319 0.750 8 552042 1905 1970 66 1.770 0.947 0.095 2.644 0.282 0.750 9 552051 1910 1972 63 1.908 1.133 0.336 2.502 0.305 0.741 10 552052 1916 1973 58 1.969 1.298 0.347 2.444 0.297 0.817 11 552061 1909 1971 63 1.414 0.924 0.826 3.265 0.372 0.794 12 552062 1910 1974 65 1.644 0.728 0.000 2.974 0.363 0.559 13 552071 1912 1968 57 1.561 0.812 1.023 5.754 0.270 0.644 14 552072 1910 1968 59 1.696 0.888 0.269 2.626 0.250 0.826 15 552081 1911 1974 64 2.144 0.984 -0.604 2.636 0.181 0.836 16 552082 1916 1973 58 1.763 0.893 -0.333 2.308 0.209 0.837 17 552091 1917 1960 44 2.118 1.008 -0.203 2.839 0.332 0.717 18 552092 1913 1961 49 1.695 0.827 0.033 2.395 0.393 0.597 19 552101 1918 1976 59 1.424 1.023 0.820 2.661 0.297 0.830 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 552102 1911 1976 66 1.264 0.848 0.576 2.099 0.338 0.827 21 552111 1913 1978 66 1.013 0.644 1.085 3.692 0.308 0.763 22 552112 1906 1976 71 1.300 0.937 0.702 2.640 0.300 0.789 23 552121 1910 1979 70 1.993 1.156 0.360 2.289 0.253 0.840 24 552122 1911 1977 67 1.753 1.021 0.970 3.512 0.251 0.837 25 552131 1923 1979 57 1.723 0.937 0.632 3.031 0.297 0.779 26 552132 1919 1979 61 1.419 0.835 1.092 3.512 0.320 0.791 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 26 FROM 1905 TO 1979 75 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 61 1.738 1.015 0.415 2.779 0.300 0.781 STANDARD DEVIATION 6 0.334 0.219 0.450 0.783 0.050 0.080 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 63 1.738 0.959 0.403 2.631 0.299 0.792 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 10 0.507 0.308 0.756 0.674 0.064 0.086 MINIMUM VALUE 44 1.013 0.644 -0.604 1.827 0.181 0.559 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 56 1.463 0.848 0.065 2.357 0.270 0.750 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 66 1.970 1.156 0.820 3.031 0.334 0.836 MAXIMUM VALUE 70 2.448 1.514 1.092 5.754 0.393 0.890 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.565 0.261 0.014 -1.015 3.577 -0.346 0.948 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.346 SERIES 552091 AND 552132 42 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.948 SERIES 552101 AND 552102 59 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 73.90 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. CORR 276. 325. 325. 231. 10. RBAR 0.425 0.499 0.285 0.638 0.575 SDEV 0.295 0.394 0.367 0.284 0.131 SERR 0.018 0.022 0.020 0.019 0.042 EPS 0.950 0.963 0.912 0.978 0.962 NSS 25.5 26.0 26.0 25.0 18.9 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1905 1979 75 1.640 0.851 -0.186 2.029 0.210 0.870 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.830 0.301 0.160 25 50 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.19 0.54 1.03 1.07 1.61 3.22 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.08 0.00 0.87 0.95 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 63. 9. 44. 57. 66. 71. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.859 0.805 0.741 0.743 0.727 0.650 0.613 0.523 0.532 0.460 PACF 0.859 0.256 0.029 0.241 0.091 -0.232 0.045 -0.220 0.162 -0.158 95% C.L. 0.231 0.363 0.448 0.510 0.564 0.612 0.648 0.678 0.699 0.721 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.787 0.632 0.279 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 552011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.07366228 4.47367573 2 552012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.06408779 4.07381678 3 552021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.02287874 2.19465947 4 552022 -67 35 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 552031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.05231091 3.84146595 6 552032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.05348210 3.63589287 7 552041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.04034659 2.94174528 8 552042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.02418578 2.58022380 9 552051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.04520689 3.35471582 10 552052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.06664601 3.87041068 11 552061 1 2.85473680 0.11451364 0.00000000 1.04060996 12 552062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01551921 2.13788295 13 552071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.03617708 2.61036348 14 552072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.04347282 3.00045586 15 552081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.03468155 3.27074409 16 552082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.03528500 2.80435562 17 552091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.06248133 3.52423882 18 552092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.03805510 2.64647961 19 552101 1 3.54035354 0.04534354 0.00000000 0.31625620 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 552102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.03389123 2.38510799 21 552111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.02238743 1.76316082 22 552112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.03335295 2.48422956 23 552121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.04487797 3.58659625 24 552122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.04076423 3.13941646 25 552131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01598522 2.18637848 26 552132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00618667 1.61096728 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 552011 1919 1972 54 0.954 0.382 0.499 2.737 0.246 0.627 2 552012 1917 1972 56 0.955 0.569 0.508 4.084 0.497 0.755 3 552021 1915 1977 63 0.971 0.525 0.665 2.791 0.337 0.692 4 552022 1926 1978 53 1.007 0.392 1.594 9.253 0.350 0.110 5 552031 1910 1979 70 1.039 0.331 1.430 6.376 0.265 0.413 6 552032 1914 1979 66 1.027 0.547 3.317 16.149 0.281 0.561 7 552041 1906 1970 65 0.998 0.378 0.399 3.401 0.309 0.452 8 552042 1905 1970 66 0.981 0.528 0.718 3.019 0.275 0.725 9 552051 1910 1972 63 0.953 0.370 -0.100 2.793 0.297 0.586 10 552052 1916 1973 58 1.630 4.948 8.356 59.734 0.327 0.078 11 552061 1909 1971 63 1.001 0.558 0.323 2.618 0.364 0.734 12 552062 1910 1974 65 0.997 0.466 0.745 4.325 0.354 0.652 13 552071 1912 1968 57 0.985 0.339 0.385 3.315 0.262 0.468 14 552072 1910 1968 59 0.974 0.290 -0.524 3.242 0.240 0.493 15 552081 1911 1974 64 0.973 0.407 -0.091 2.651 0.178 0.793 16 552082 1916 1973 58 0.965 0.439 0.711 3.162 0.206 0.778 17 552091 1917 1960 44 0.976 0.356 -0.139 3.829 0.318 0.586 18 552092 1913 1961 49 0.983 0.373 -0.425 2.848 0.380 0.387 19 552101 1918 1976 59 0.993 0.558 1.336 5.573 0.283 0.703 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 552102 1911 1976 66 1.043 0.467 0.230 2.499 0.322 0.548 21 552111 1913 1978 66 0.993 0.457 0.915 3.344 0.311 0.619 22 552112 1906 1976 71 0.961 0.438 0.721 3.010 0.286 0.578 23 552121 1910 1979 70 0.969 0.335 0.692 2.955 0.245 0.559 24 552122 1911 1977 67 0.994 0.345 1.278 4.383 0.247 0.453 25 552131 1923 1979 57 0.992 0.542 0.771 3.005 0.292 0.776 26 552132 1919 1979 61 0.998 0.594 1.207 3.664 0.314 0.789 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 61 1.012 0.613 0.982 6.337 0.299 0.574 STANDARD DEVIATION 6 0.128 0.889 1.687 11.254 0.063 0.187 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 63 0.988 0.439 0.701 3.279 0.294 0.586 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 9 0.028 0.172 0.883 1.477 0.065 0.256 MINIMUM VALUE 44 0.953 0.290 -0.524 2.499 0.178 0.078 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 57 0.971 0.370 0.323 2.848 0.262 0.468 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 66 0.998 0.542 1.207 4.325 0.327 0.725 MAXIMUM VALUE 71 1.630 4.948 8.356 59.734 0.497 0.793 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 552011 -67 36 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 552012 -67 37 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 552021 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 552022 -67 35 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 552031 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 552032 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 552041 -67 43 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 552042 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 552051 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 552052 -67 38 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 552061 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 552062 -67 43 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 552071 -67 38 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 552072 -67 39 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 552081 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 552082 -67 38 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 552091 -67 29 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 552092 -67 32 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 552101 -67 39 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 552102 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 552111 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 552112 -67 47 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 552121 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 552122 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 552131 -67 38 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 552132 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 552011 1919 1972 54 0.985 0.299 0.878 3.786 0.239 0.410 2 552012 1917 1972 56 0.976 0.575 -0.559 6.827 0.419 0.317 3 552021 1915 1977 63 1.007 0.407 1.733 8.550 0.340 0.087 4 552022 1926 1978 53 0.998 0.370 1.066 6.862 0.349 0.107 5 552031 1910 1979 70 0.997 0.250 -0.023 2.795 0.263 0.248 6 552032 1914 1979 66 0.982 0.369 1.137 5.661 0.279 0.532 7 552041 1906 1970 65 0.994 0.360 0.372 3.515 0.308 0.410 8 552042 1905 1970 66 0.985 0.360 0.493 3.247 0.270 0.574 9 552051 1910 1972 63 0.994 0.290 0.003 3.335 0.295 0.155 10 552052 1916 1973 58 1.165 0.935 1.869 6.304 0.343 0.577 11 552061 1909 1971 63 0.959 0.431 0.141 2.279 0.356 0.619 12 552062 1910 1974 65 0.971 0.349 0.487 4.088 0.347 0.439 13 552071 1912 1968 57 0.990 0.292 0.446 3.653 0.259 0.298 14 552072 1910 1968 59 0.994 0.267 -0.001 3.272 0.238 0.291 15 552081 1911 1974 64 0.996 0.241 0.997 4.044 0.179 0.389 16 552082 1916 1973 58 1.003 0.257 1.338 5.606 0.211 0.351 17 552091 1917 1960 44 0.984 0.271 -0.457 4.851 0.308 0.292 18 552092 1913 1961 49 0.991 0.332 -0.565 2.920 0.376 0.157 19 552101 1918 1976 59 0.960 0.373 0.742 4.398 0.278 0.557 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 552102 1911 1976 66 0.982 0.397 0.631 3.257 0.321 0.454 21 552111 1913 1978 66 0.976 0.374 0.749 3.462 0.309 0.497 22 552112 1906 1976 71 0.986 0.389 0.739 3.380 0.290 0.461 23 552121 1910 1979 70 0.996 0.298 1.065 5.478 0.245 0.415 24 552122 1911 1977 67 0.995 0.309 1.049 4.233 0.245 0.345 25 552131 1923 1979 57 0.994 0.323 0.261 3.620 0.298 0.398 26 552132 1919 1979 61 1.003 0.349 0.580 2.754 0.305 0.354 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 61 0.995 0.364 0.583 4.314 0.295 0.374 STANDARD DEVIATION 6 0.037 0.136 0.633 1.530 0.054 0.145 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 63 0.992 0.349 0.605 3.719 0.297 0.394 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 9 0.014 0.082 0.908 2.205 0.081 0.169 MINIMUM VALUE 44 0.959 0.241 -0.565 2.279 0.179 0.087 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 57 0.982 0.292 0.141 3.272 0.259 0.292 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 66 0.996 0.374 1.049 5.478 0.340 0.461 MAXIMUM VALUE 71 1.165 0.935 1.869 8.550 0.419 0.619 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.327 0.184 0.010 -0.144 2.815 -0.219 0.821 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.219 SERIES 552011 AND 552082 54 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.821 SERIES 552101 AND 552102 59 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 73.90 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. CORR 276. 325. 325. 231. 10. RBAR 0.492 0.454 0.428 0.320 0.243 SDEV 0.211 0.257 0.276 0.325 0.441 SERR 0.013 0.014 0.015 0.021 0.139 EPS 0.961 0.956 0.951 0.922 0.858 NSS 25.5 26.0 26.0 25.0 18.9 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1905 1979 75 0.982 0.211 0.447 3.547 0.205 0.315 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.200 0.106 0.169 29 46 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.50 1.23 1.03 1.11 2.34 4.88 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.94 0.08 0.00 0.89 0.97 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.310 0.095 -0.063 0.124 0.176 0.015 -0.048 -0.318 -0.104 -0.247 PACF 0.310 -0.002 -0.102 0.193 0.107 -0.121 -0.007 -0.320 0.048 -0.259 95% C.L. 0.231 0.252 0.254 0.255 0.258 0.264 0.265 0.265 0.285 0.287 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.111 0.333 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.344 0.245 0.046 0.212 0.214 -0.050 -0.107 -0.364 -0.156 -0.294 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.344 2 0.295 0.144 3 0.308 0.169 -0.088 4 0.327 0.133 -0.155 0.218 5 0.300 0.152 -0.171 0.177 0.124 6 0.335 0.202 -0.219 0.220 0.208 -0.280 7 0.315 0.216 -0.204 0.205 0.222 -0.257 -0.070 8 0.292 0.131 -0.131 0.272 0.155 -0.186 0.034 -0.330 9 0.283 0.132 -0.136 0.277 0.163 -0.190 0.038 -0.321 -0.029 10 0.278 0.079 -0.130 0.245 0.190 -0.143 0.015 -0.299 0.018 -0.168 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 560.29 552.82 553.25 554.67 553.02 553.85 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 549.71 551.35 544.72 546.66 546.52 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.344 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 11.87 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 113.47 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.344 0.119 0.041 0.014 0.005 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 552011 1 0.171 0.413 2 552012 1 0.125 0.331 3 552021 1 0.013 0.105 4 552022 1 0.026 0.108 5 552031 1 0.064 0.252 6 552032 1 0.312 0.558 7 552041 1 0.191 0.424 8 552042 1 0.345 0.579 9 552051 1 0.060 0.155 10 552052 1 0.440 0.641 11 552061 1 0.392 0.621 12 552062 1 0.232 0.445 13 552071 1 0.133 0.330 14 552072 1 0.092 0.304 15 552081 1 0.179 0.420 16 552082 1 0.192 0.399 17 552091 1 0.088 0.296 18 552092 1 0.035 0.163 19 552101 1 0.390 0.562 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 552102 1 0.273 0.455 21 552111 1 0.248 0.498 22 552112 1 0.233 0.465 23 552121 1 0.179 0.423 24 552122 1 0.141 0.361 25 552131 1 0.199 0.441 26 552132 1 0.150 0.367 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.189 0.389 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.117 0.149 MEDIAN 1 0.179 0.416 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.156 0.162 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.013 0.105 LOWER HINGE 1 0.092 0.304 UPPER HINGE 1 0.248 0.465 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.440 0.641 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 552011 1919 1972 54 1.000 0.272 1.077 4.866 0.286 -0.010 2 552012 1917 1972 56 1.021 0.474 1.750 9.209 0.375 0.182 3 552021 1915 1977 63 1.000 0.404 1.990 9.846 0.347 0.013 4 552022 1926 1978 53 1.000 0.368 1.205 7.483 0.351 -0.009 5 552031 1910 1979 70 1.000 0.242 -0.034 2.954 0.293 -0.003 6 552032 1914 1979 66 1.000 0.306 1.887 10.462 0.308 0.033 7 552041 1906 1970 65 1.000 0.326 0.579 3.955 0.358 -0.042 8 552042 1905 1970 66 1.000 0.293 0.750 4.008 0.341 -0.069 9 552051 1910 1972 63 1.000 0.287 -0.109 4.026 0.327 0.029 10 552052 1916 1973 58 1.010 0.698 3.265 15.087 0.441 0.013 11 552061 1909 1971 63 1.000 0.337 0.285 2.856 0.413 -0.059 12 552062 1910 1974 65 1.000 0.312 0.229 3.618 0.389 -0.088 13 552071 1912 1968 57 1.000 0.273 0.477 3.183 0.292 -0.070 14 552072 1910 1968 59 1.000 0.254 0.410 4.154 0.262 0.006 15 552081 1911 1974 64 1.000 0.219 0.796 3.610 0.213 0.048 16 552082 1916 1973 58 1.000 0.236 0.935 3.873 0.253 -0.021 17 552091 1917 1960 44 1.000 0.259 -0.402 4.224 0.320 0.004 18 552092 1913 1961 49 1.000 0.327 -0.486 2.832 0.391 0.017 19 552101 1918 1976 59 1.000 0.309 0.507 3.840 0.349 -0.180 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 552102 1911 1976 66 1.000 0.354 0.554 3.205 0.392 -0.128 21 552111 1913 1978 66 1.000 0.324 0.013 3.696 0.363 0.002 22 552112 1906 1976 71 1.000 0.344 0.704 4.253 0.361 -0.061 23 552121 1910 1979 70 1.000 0.270 1.070 5.190 0.293 0.000 24 552122 1911 1977 67 1.000 0.288 0.931 4.335 0.261 0.054 25 552131 1923 1979 57 1.000 0.289 0.342 2.737 0.319 0.058 26 552132 1919 1979 61 1.000 0.324 0.734 3.012 0.358 -0.034 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 61 1.001 0.323 0.748 5.020 0.333 -0.012 STANDARD DEVIATION 6 0.005 0.094 0.809 2.977 0.054 0.069 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 63 1.000 0.307 0.642 3.981 0.344 -0.002 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 9 0.000 0.065 0.785 1.661 0.070 0.075 MINIMUM VALUE 44 1.000 0.219 -0.486 2.737 0.213 -0.180 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 57 1.000 0.272 0.285 3.205 0.293 -0.059 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 66 1.000 0.337 1.070 4.866 0.363 0.017 MAXIMUM VALUE 71 1.021 0.698 3.265 15.087 0.441 0.182 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.378 0.149 0.008 -0.054 3.151 -0.023 0.846 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.023 SERIES 552012 AND 552022 47 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.846 SERIES 552101 AND 552102 59 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 73.90 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. CORR 276. 325. 325. 231. 10. RBAR 0.533 0.512 0.473 0.401 0.302 SDEV 0.153 0.177 0.214 0.226 0.359 SERR 0.009 0.010 0.012 0.015 0.114 EPS 0.967 0.965 0.959 0.944 0.891 NSS 25.5 26.0 26.0 25.0 18.9 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1905 1979 75 0.993 0.188 0.094 2.635 0.229 -0.090 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.286 0.189 0.050 28 47 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.22 0.78 1.01 1.08 1.86 6.89 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.09 0.00 0.88 0.97 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.089 0.060 -0.157 0.091 0.200 -0.042 0.030 -0.322 0.099 -0.199 PACF -0.089 0.052 -0.149 0.066 0.235 -0.044 0.024 -0.278 0.006 -0.219 95% C.L. 0.231 0.233 0.234 0.239 0.241 0.250 0.250 0.250 0.272 0.273 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.004 0.036 -0.147 0.099 0.208 -0.021 -0.003 -0.317 0.055 -0.194 PACF 0.004 0.036 -0.147 0.102 0.222 -0.060 0.006 -0.281 0.010 -0.233 95% C.L. 0.231 0.231 0.231 0.236 0.238 0.248 0.248 0.248 0.269 0.269 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.001 0.004 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1905 1979 75 0.991 0.199 0.167 2.974 0.195 0.339 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.334 0.103 -0.045 0.142 0.212 0.021 -0.097 -0.327 -0.125 -0.247 PACF 0.334 -0.010 -0.086 0.209 0.128 -0.145 -0.066 -0.296 0.019 -0.268 95% C.L. 0.231 0.255 0.258 0.258 0.262 0.271 0.271 0.273 0.293 0.296 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.118 0.343 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.68 MINUTES