RUN: SWIT004 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWIT155L.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWIT155L.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 20 10 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 553 1 Lindenwald BE,Tanne abst WIDTH_LATE ABAL - 553 2 Switzerland silver fir, European fir 560 4702-724 1882 1979 - 553 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 2 553012 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1970 1970 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 553021 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1967 1967 / 1970 1970 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 553022 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1967 1967 / 1970 1970 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 553041 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1976 1976 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 553061 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1973 1973 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 25 553131 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1961 1961 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 553011 1899 1977 79 0.680 0.335 0.129 2.464 0.436 0.487 2 553012 1901 1975 75 0.602 0.337 0.107 2.411 0.500 0.476 3 553021 1893 1976 84 0.659 0.312 0.343 2.632 0.398 0.551 4 553022 1889 1973 85 0.716 0.386 0.342 2.990 0.329 0.701 5 553031 1894 1974 81 0.653 0.294 0.658 4.409 0.360 0.409 6 553032 1892 1976 85 0.562 0.316 0.204 2.509 0.386 0.649 7 553041 1900 1979 80 0.530 0.301 0.884 3.454 0.439 0.443 8 553042 1896 1978 83 0.571 0.278 -0.039 2.308 0.395 0.591 9 553051 1894 1976 83 0.559 0.370 4.894 34.751 0.406 0.335 10 553052 1894 1978 85 0.591 0.364 1.676 6.904 0.435 0.543 11 553061 1894 1976 83 0.460 0.276 1.463 6.669 0.329 0.651 12 553062 1894 1976 83 0.546 0.256 0.358 3.148 0.307 0.644 13 553071 1900 1975 76 0.678 0.396 0.574 2.868 0.408 0.747 14 553072 1901 1975 75 0.570 0.353 0.354 1.894 0.354 0.833 15 553081 1891 1979 89 0.453 0.217 0.094 2.838 0.362 0.495 16 553082 1890 1979 90 0.529 0.220 -0.358 3.084 0.374 0.442 17 553091 1891 1973 83 0.448 0.179 0.709 5.004 0.388 0.280 18 553092 1899 1973 75 0.547 0.256 1.435 7.626 0.362 0.465 19 553101 1893 1977 85 0.630 0.316 -0.196 2.154 0.324 0.765 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 553102 1893 1975 83 0.809 0.381 -0.514 2.430 0.315 0.775 21 553111 1899 1964 66 0.575 0.294 0.460 2.772 0.332 0.753 22 553112 1896 1962 67 0.637 0.232 -0.299 2.914 0.270 0.678 23 553121 1896 1974 79 0.550 0.244 -0.257 2.826 0.423 0.554 24 553122 1894 1974 81 0.484 0.228 0.070 2.514 0.380 0.634 25 553131 1887 1968 82 0.623 0.228 -0.518 2.801 0.290 0.570 26 553132 1883 1968 86 0.595 0.266 0.042 2.990 0.306 0.594 27 553141 1882 1974 93 0.611 0.283 0.420 3.360 0.337 0.555 28 553142 1887 1974 88 0.536 0.251 0.507 3.478 0.313 0.590 29 553151 1886 1973 88 0.488 0.259 0.676 3.353 0.353 0.586 30 553152 1883 1976 94 0.454 0.225 0.492 2.846 0.395 0.532 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 30 FROM 1882 TO 1979 98 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 82 0.578 0.288 0.490 4.413 0.367 0.578 STANDARD DEVIATION 6 0.084 0.058 0.992 5.899 0.052 0.131 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 83 0.570 0.281 0.348 2.891 0.362 0.578 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 6 0.100 0.091 0.616 0.940 0.070 0.164 MINIMUM VALUE 66 0.448 0.179 -0.518 1.894 0.270 0.280 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 79 0.530 0.244 0.042 2.514 0.329 0.487 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 85 0.630 0.335 0.658 3.454 0.398 0.651 MAXIMUM VALUE 94 0.809 0.396 4.894 34.751 0.500 0.833 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 435 0.442 0.199 0.010 -0.592 3.198 -0.219 0.846 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.219 SERIES 553031 AND 553111 66 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.846 SERIES 553021 AND 553022 81 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 78.64 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. CORR 378. 435. 435. 435. 435. 325. 3. RBAR 0.282 0.305 0.310 0.302 0.414 0.290 0.469 SDEV 0.242 0.243 0.252 0.277 0.227 0.273 0.224 SERR 0.012 0.012 0.012 0.013 0.011 0.015 0.129 EPS 0.921 0.929 0.931 0.928 0.955 0.923 0.953 NSS 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.3 22.9 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1882 1979 98 0.545 0.224 -0.635 2.550 0.256 0.733 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.707 0.233 0.067 50 48 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.29 1.26 1.00 1.11 2.37 8.30 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.08 0.00 0.88 0.97 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 83. 6. 66. 79. 85. 94. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.726 0.754 0.701 0.659 0.616 0.605 0.547 0.553 0.511 0.471 PACF 0.726 0.481 0.188 0.034 -0.016 0.065 -0.033 0.066 0.006 -0.066 95% C.L. 0.202 0.289 0.361 0.413 0.454 0.487 0.516 0.539 0.562 0.581 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.714 0.189 0.436 0.291 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 553011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00721762 0.96857840 2 553012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00970300 0.96408457 3 553021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00678147 0.93638515 4 553022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00670138 0.98979235 5 553031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00165402 0.58502471 6 553032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00286730 0.68576473 7 553041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00537048 0.74211252 8 553042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00583015 0.81558919 9 553051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00216721 0.64993829 10 553052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00194118 0.50758821 11 553061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00887230 0.82746714 12 553062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00605411 0.80017632 13 553071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01337758 1.19332635 14 553072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01397895 1.10080004 15 553081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00377664 0.62298262 16 553082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00377750 0.70065421 17 553091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00294026 0.57120186 18 553092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00427454 0.70989907 19 553101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01126441 1.11472273 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 553102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00985895 1.22287107 21 553111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00857656 0.86216319 22 553112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00181020 0.69900948 23 553121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00352629 0.69067186 24 553122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00581504 0.72261417 25 553131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00702287 0.91185158 26 553132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00791179 0.93869770 27 553141 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00288980 0.74721831 28 553142 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00331425 0.68362069 29 553151 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00561181 0.73722571 30 553152 1 0.60875726 0.02496343 0.00000000 0.22226721 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 553011 1899 1977 79 0.986 0.446 0.270 2.452 0.429 0.278 2 553012 1901 1975 75 0.969 0.516 1.082 5.370 0.504 0.159 3 553021 1893 1976 84 0.988 0.422 0.335 2.737 0.417 0.433 4 553022 1889 1973 85 0.980 0.556 0.836 3.683 0.354 0.731 5 553031 1894 1974 81 0.999 0.432 0.548 4.553 0.355 0.363 6 553032 1892 1976 85 0.994 0.586 0.506 2.742 0.381 0.641 7 553041 1900 1979 80 0.983 0.532 1.061 3.680 0.438 0.322 8 553042 1896 1978 83 0.984 0.440 0.048 2.496 0.391 0.482 9 553051 1894 1976 83 0.999 0.681 5.114 36.009 0.401 0.316 10 553052 1894 1978 85 0.999 0.575 1.285 5.450 0.431 0.528 11 553061 1894 1976 83 0.986 0.335 1.030 3.575 0.317 0.238 12 553062 1894 1976 83 0.989 0.429 1.105 4.279 0.304 0.549 13 553071 1900 1975 76 0.990 0.414 0.348 2.801 0.404 0.299 14 553072 1901 1975 75 1.086 0.651 3.763 19.231 0.352 0.270 15 553081 1891 1979 89 0.989 0.492 1.119 4.879 0.357 0.427 16 553082 1890 1979 90 0.993 0.415 0.025 3.169 0.370 0.384 17 553091 1891 1973 83 1.000 0.385 1.027 6.212 0.384 0.088 18 553092 1899 1973 75 0.996 0.469 2.074 9.281 0.356 0.417 19 553101 1893 1977 85 0.976 0.299 -0.428 4.506 0.319 0.173 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 553102 1893 1975 83 0.977 0.438 0.139 3.086 0.309 0.719 21 553111 1899 1964 66 0.981 0.397 0.025 2.606 0.328 0.609 22 553112 1896 1962 67 0.999 0.368 -0.210 2.662 0.266 0.656 23 553121 1896 1974 79 0.996 0.465 0.388 3.555 0.418 0.503 24 553122 1894 1974 81 0.983 0.399 0.325 2.690 0.374 0.469 25 553131 1887 1968 82 0.990 0.279 -0.427 3.386 0.296 0.198 26 553132 1883 1968 86 0.989 0.370 0.759 4.398 0.302 0.323 27 553141 1882 1974 93 0.996 0.481 0.902 4.120 0.333 0.536 28 553142 1887 1974 88 0.993 0.476 1.076 4.490 0.309 0.543 29 553151 1886 1973 88 0.989 0.518 2.127 8.252 0.348 0.524 30 553152 1883 1976 94 1.000 0.444 1.240 5.679 0.390 0.220 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 82 0.993 0.457 0.916 5.734 0.365 0.413 STANDARD DEVIATION 6 0.019 0.093 1.157 6.547 0.052 0.172 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 83 0.990 0.442 0.798 3.902 0.357 0.422 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 6 0.012 0.117 0.835 2.569 0.082 0.257 MINIMUM VALUE 66 0.969 0.279 -0.428 2.452 0.266 0.088 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 79 0.984 0.399 0.270 2.801 0.319 0.278 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 85 0.996 0.516 1.105 5.370 0.401 0.536 MAXIMUM VALUE 94 1.086 0.681 5.114 36.009 0.504 0.731 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 553011 -67 52 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 553012 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 553021 -67 56 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 553022 -67 56 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 553031 -67 54 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 553032 5 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.99410582 7 553041 -67 53 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 553042 -67 55 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 553051 -67 55 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 553052 -67 56 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 553061 -67 55 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 553062 -67 55 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 553071 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 553072 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 553081 -67 59 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 553082 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 553091 -67 55 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 553092 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 553101 -67 56 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 553102 -67 55 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 553111 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 553112 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 553121 -67 52 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 553122 -67 54 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 553131 -67 54 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 553132 -67 57 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 27 553141 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 28 553142 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 29 553151 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 30 553152 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 553011 1899 1977 79 0.994 0.390 0.755 3.857 0.429 0.002 2 553012 1901 1975 75 0.992 0.489 1.893 8.697 0.502 -0.055 3 553021 1893 1976 84 0.995 0.370 0.152 3.665 0.418 0.106 4 553022 1889 1973 85 0.999 0.413 1.686 7.393 0.352 0.071 5 553031 1894 1974 81 0.986 0.398 0.400 3.806 0.351 0.299 6 553032 1892 1976 85 1.000 0.590 0.506 2.742 0.381 0.641 7 553041 1900 1979 80 0.991 0.397 1.569 6.854 0.439 -0.272 8 553042 1896 1978 83 0.989 0.354 0.225 3.126 0.389 0.111 9 553051 1894 1976 83 0.993 0.592 3.735 22.379 0.400 0.224 10 553052 1894 1978 85 0.990 0.567 2.497 12.906 0.429 0.436 11 553061 1894 1976 83 0.998 0.320 1.118 4.214 0.316 0.155 12 553062 1894 1976 83 0.994 0.371 1.051 4.274 0.302 0.340 13 553071 1900 1975 76 0.995 0.406 0.474 3.232 0.403 0.218 14 553072 1901 1975 75 0.985 0.349 1.456 8.130 0.351 -0.043 15 553081 1891 1979 89 0.987 0.383 1.621 7.530 0.358 0.168 16 553082 1890 1979 90 0.977 0.358 0.281 3.360 0.373 0.216 17 553091 1891 1973 83 0.999 0.385 1.131 6.747 0.384 0.077 18 553092 1899 1973 75 0.993 0.423 2.202 9.882 0.355 0.311 19 553101 1893 1977 85 0.998 0.295 -0.070 5.323 0.320 0.012 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 553102 1893 1975 83 0.984 0.328 0.004 4.298 0.310 0.227 21 553111 1899 1964 66 0.994 0.323 0.198 2.995 0.328 0.207 22 553112 1896 1962 67 0.995 0.287 0.279 5.270 0.266 0.167 23 553121 1896 1974 79 0.986 0.452 1.185 6.547 0.416 0.402 24 553122 1894 1974 81 0.996 0.330 0.197 2.832 0.371 0.064 25 553131 1887 1968 82 0.997 0.252 0.227 5.349 0.295 -0.261 26 553132 1883 1968 86 0.986 0.316 0.975 4.576 0.302 0.095 27 553141 1882 1974 93 0.977 0.361 1.065 4.376 0.328 0.242 28 553142 1887 1974 88 0.988 0.317 1.335 5.744 0.306 0.138 29 553151 1886 1973 88 0.984 0.404 1.753 6.428 0.347 0.355 30 553152 1883 1976 94 0.996 0.433 1.288 5.981 0.390 0.191 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 82 0.991 0.388 1.040 6.084 0.364 0.161 STANDARD DEVIATION 6 0.006 0.083 0.860 3.857 0.052 0.189 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 83 0.993 0.377 1.058 5.297 0.357 0.168 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 6 0.010 0.085 1.290 3.048 0.080 0.171 MINIMUM VALUE 66 0.977 0.252 -0.070 2.742 0.266 -0.272 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 79 0.986 0.328 0.279 3.806 0.320 0.071 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 85 0.996 0.413 1.569 6.854 0.400 0.242 MAXIMUM VALUE 94 1.000 0.592 3.735 22.379 0.502 0.641 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 435 0.231 0.153 0.007 -0.049 2.842 -0.183 0.664 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.183 SERIES 553031 AND 553152 81 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.664 SERIES 553021 AND 553022 81 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 78.64 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. CORR 378. 435. 435. 435. 435. 325. 3. RBAR 0.256 0.327 0.306 0.319 0.285 0.240 0.169 SDEV 0.234 0.222 0.228 0.253 0.238 0.255 0.351 SERR 0.012 0.011 0.011 0.012 0.011 0.014 0.203 EPS 0.912 0.936 0.930 0.934 0.923 0.902 0.823 NSS 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.3 22.9 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1882 1979 98 0.969 0.198 0.098 3.560 0.238 -0.115 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.127 0.091 0.202 40 58 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.22 0.51 1.00 1.06 1.58 4.61 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.08 0.00 0.88 0.96 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.114 0.158 0.134 -0.090 -0.069 0.061 -0.121 0.126 -0.001 0.065 PACF -0.114 0.147 0.172 -0.085 -0.148 0.049 -0.045 0.120 0.022 0.053 95% C.L. 0.202 0.205 0.210 0.213 0.215 0.215 0.216 0.219 0.222 0.222 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.070 -0.123 0.166 0.174 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.233 0.129 0.075 -0.162 -0.074 0.011 -0.080 0.097 -0.002 0.054 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 -0.233 2 -0.215 0.079 3 -0.225 0.107 0.129 4 -0.207 0.122 0.098 -0.140 5 -0.232 0.139 0.120 -0.177 -0.179 6 -0.234 0.137 0.121 -0.175 -0.182 -0.013 7 -0.235 0.134 0.118 -0.173 -0.180 -0.017 -0.016 8 -0.233 0.135 0.133 -0.160 -0.189 -0.027 0.003 0.079 9 -0.234 0.135 0.133 -0.158 -0.188 -0.028 0.002 0.081 0.008 10 -0.234 0.133 0.133 -0.157 -0.183 -0.024 -0.002 0.077 0.015 0.030 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 771.15 767.67 769.05 769.40 769.47 768.27 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 770.26 772.23 773.62 775.62 777.53 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.233 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 5.44 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 105.75 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 -0.233 0.054 -0.013 0.003 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 553011 1 0.006 0.002 2 553012 1 0.057 -0.055 3 553021 1 0.021 0.107 4 553022 1 0.010 0.073 5 553031 1 0.145 0.308 6 553032 1 0.503 0.652 7 553041 1 0.100 -0.272 8 553042 1 0.015 0.112 9 553051 1 0.056 0.228 10 553052 1 0.204 0.439 11 553061 1 0.027 0.162 12 553062 1 0.125 0.353 13 553071 1 0.066 0.224 14 553072 1 0.039 -0.043 15 553081 1 0.041 0.168 16 553082 1 0.108 0.224 17 553091 1 0.009 0.080 18 553092 1 0.100 0.316 19 553101 1 0.017 0.012 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 553102 1 0.060 0.240 21 553111 1 0.071 0.220 22 553112 1 0.049 0.187 23 553121 1 0.270 0.409 24 553122 1 0.006 0.067 25 553131 1 0.076 -0.272 26 553132 1 0.076 0.096 27 553141 1 0.076 0.246 28 553142 1 0.035 0.139 29 553151 1 0.139 0.357 30 553152 1 0.099 0.192 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.087 0.166 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.099 0.193 MEDIAN 1 0.063 0.177 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.073 0.174 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.006 -0.272 LOWER HINGE 1 0.027 0.073 UPPER HINGE 1 0.100 0.246 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.503 0.652 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 553011 1899 1977 79 1.000 0.390 0.754 3.857 0.426 0.000 2 553012 1901 1975 75 1.000 0.488 1.876 8.661 0.479 0.012 3 553021 1893 1976 84 1.000 0.368 0.171 3.842 0.430 -0.011 4 553022 1889 1973 85 1.000 0.412 1.775 7.862 0.360 -0.004 5 553031 1894 1974 81 1.000 0.378 0.523 4.275 0.414 -0.057 6 553032 1892 1976 85 1.002 0.441 1.178 5.177 0.490 -0.228 7 553041 1900 1979 80 1.000 0.382 1.685 7.315 0.370 0.046 8 553042 1896 1978 83 1.000 0.352 0.217 3.246 0.408 -0.004 9 553051 1894 1976 83 1.000 0.576 3.902 22.690 0.444 -0.012 10 553052 1894 1978 85 1.000 0.510 2.757 15.054 0.495 -0.049 11 553061 1894 1976 83 1.000 0.316 1.166 4.325 0.338 -0.010 12 553062 1894 1976 83 1.000 0.346 0.787 4.041 0.359 -0.006 13 553071 1900 1975 76 1.000 0.396 0.528 3.783 0.447 -0.022 14 553072 1901 1975 75 1.000 0.348 1.389 7.768 0.339 0.008 15 553081 1891 1979 89 1.000 0.378 1.575 6.875 0.382 -0.020 16 553082 1890 1979 90 1.000 0.349 0.484 3.027 0.399 -0.046 17 553091 1891 1973 83 1.000 0.384 1.164 6.944 0.389 0.004 18 553092 1899 1973 75 1.000 0.401 2.174 9.978 0.392 0.002 19 553101 1893 1977 85 1.000 0.295 -0.066 5.330 0.320 0.002 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 553102 1893 1975 83 1.000 0.318 0.398 5.201 0.341 -0.001 21 553111 1899 1964 66 1.000 0.314 0.266 3.411 0.365 -0.043 22 553112 1896 1962 67 1.000 0.282 0.325 6.129 0.289 -0.001 23 553121 1896 1974 79 1.000 0.413 1.081 5.804 0.454 -0.133 24 553122 1894 1974 81 1.000 0.330 0.275 2.872 0.377 -0.004 25 553131 1887 1968 82 1.000 0.242 0.258 5.466 0.264 -0.022 26 553132 1883 1968 86 1.000 0.314 1.011 4.779 0.314 -0.024 27 553141 1882 1974 93 1.000 0.350 0.945 4.425 0.373 -0.028 28 553142 1887 1974 88 1.000 0.314 1.260 6.045 0.330 -0.017 29 553151 1886 1973 88 1.000 0.377 1.286 5.902 0.424 -0.041 30 553152 1883 1976 94 1.000 0.425 1.325 6.116 0.449 -0.049 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 82 1.000 0.373 1.082 6.340 0.389 -0.025 STANDARD DEVIATION 6 0.000 0.069 0.852 3.951 0.058 0.049 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 83 1.000 0.373 1.046 5.398 0.385 -0.011 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 6 0.000 0.083 0.991 2.903 0.089 0.041 MINIMUM VALUE 66 1.000 0.242 -0.066 2.872 0.264 -0.228 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 79 1.000 0.318 0.398 4.041 0.341 -0.041 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 85 1.000 0.401 1.389 6.944 0.430 -0.001 MAXIMUM VALUE 94 1.002 0.576 3.902 22.690 0.495 0.046 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 435 0.263 0.138 0.007 0.159 2.731 -0.059 0.680 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.059 SERIES 553031 AND 553152 81 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.680 SERIES 553021 AND 553022 81 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 78.64 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. CORR 378. 435. 435. 435. 435. 325. 3. RBAR 0.285 0.383 0.327 0.351 0.308 0.279 0.256 SDEV 0.227 0.198 0.203 0.228 0.222 0.233 0.331 SERR 0.012 0.009 0.010 0.011 0.011 0.013 0.191 EPS 0.923 0.949 0.936 0.942 0.930 0.919 0.887 NSS 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.3 22.9 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1882 1979 98 0.979 0.201 0.228 3.740 0.253 -0.278 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.207 0.132 0.136 44 54 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.27 0.41 1.01 1.11 1.53 4.43 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.07 0.00 0.88 0.95 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.275 0.128 0.140 -0.091 -0.044 0.071 -0.116 0.117 -0.023 0.079 PACF -0.275 0.057 0.205 -0.012 -0.128 0.014 -0.052 0.098 0.029 0.089 95% C.L. 0.202 0.217 0.220 0.223 0.225 0.225 0.226 0.229 0.231 0.231 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.080 -0.277 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.017 0.107 0.173 -0.080 -0.058 0.033 -0.081 0.095 0.032 0.062 PACF 0.017 0.107 0.171 -0.097 -0.098 0.025 -0.034 0.115 0.024 0.059 95% C.L. 0.202 0.202 0.204 0.210 0.212 0.212 0.212 0.214 0.215 0.216 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.012 0.017 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1882 1979 98 0.979 0.199 0.217 3.719 0.246 -0.234 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.231 0.115 0.151 -0.093 -0.045 0.065 -0.110 0.112 -0.012 0.074 PACF -0.231 0.065 0.203 -0.027 -0.124 0.015 -0.050 0.100 0.029 0.085 95% C.L. 0.202 0.213 0.215 0.219 0.221 0.221 0.222 0.224 0.227 0.227 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.058 -0.232 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.75 MINUTES