RUN: SWIT004 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWIT155P.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWIT155P.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 20 10 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 553 1 Lindenwald BE,Tanne abst LATEWOOD_PERCENT ABAL - 553 2 Switzerland silver fir, European fir 560 4702-724 1882 1979 - 553 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 2 553012 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1970 1970 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 553021 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1967 1967 / 1970 1970 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 553022 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1967 1967 / 1970 1970 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 553041 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1976 1976 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 553061 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1973 1973 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 25 553131 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1961 1961 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 553011 1899 1977 79 3.357 1.202 0.250 2.809 0.305 0.415 2 553012 1901 1975 75 2.636 1.001 0.843 3.163 0.395 0.100 3 553021 1893 1976 84 3.495 1.724 0.830 3.262 0.344 0.553 4 553022 1889 1973 85 3.479 1.564 0.315 2.717 0.276 0.604 5 553031 1894 1974 81 2.891 1.251 0.753 3.763 0.393 0.259 6 553032 1892 1976 85 2.775 1.247 0.682 3.512 0.336 0.441 7 553041 1900 1979 80 2.566 0.888 0.457 2.773 0.382 0.037 8 553042 1896 1978 83 2.489 0.815 0.512 2.835 0.292 0.377 9 553051 1894 1976 83 2.834 1.233 0.744 3.857 0.369 0.386 10 553052 1894 1978 85 3.099 1.490 0.504 2.718 0.332 0.700 11 553061 1894 1976 83 2.427 1.070 1.233 3.835 0.283 0.557 12 553062 1894 1976 83 2.807 1.223 1.306 5.638 0.270 0.555 13 553071 1900 1975 76 2.985 0.847 0.610 3.077 0.286 0.168 14 553072 1901 1975 75 3.178 0.847 0.586 4.152 0.249 0.117 15 553081 1891 1979 89 2.565 0.769 0.554 3.513 0.296 0.211 16 553082 1890 1979 90 2.517 0.695 0.410 3.790 0.306 0.088 17 553091 1891 1973 83 2.395 1.379 1.402 4.191 0.308 0.674 18 553092 1899 1973 75 2.239 0.898 2.201 10.572 0.342 0.204 19 553101 1893 1977 85 3.494 0.800 0.384 7.730 0.223 -0.080 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 553102 1893 1975 83 3.653 0.850 -0.724 6.489 0.241 0.055 21 553111 1899 1964 66 3.105 1.083 0.280 3.244 0.261 0.601 22 553112 1896 1962 67 2.792 1.265 1.689 6.293 0.254 0.632 23 553121 1896 1974 79 3.119 1.236 0.497 2.916 0.326 0.422 24 553122 1894 1974 81 3.059 1.071 0.636 2.868 0.300 0.352 25 553131 1887 1968 82 3.665 0.807 0.615 4.406 0.189 0.357 26 553132 1883 1968 86 3.659 0.945 1.192 6.523 0.197 0.467 27 553141 1882 1974 93 2.566 0.939 0.826 3.368 0.294 0.498 28 553142 1887 1974 88 2.633 0.927 0.824 3.367 0.274 0.491 29 553151 1886 1973 88 2.351 0.802 0.802 4.041 0.304 0.310 30 553152 1883 1976 94 2.626 1.064 1.132 3.871 0.310 0.462 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 30 FROM 1882 TO 1979 98 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 82 2.915 1.064 0.745 4.176 0.298 0.367 STANDARD DEVIATION 6 0.429 0.257 0.518 1.772 0.052 0.210 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 83 2.820 1.032 0.659 3.638 0.298 0.401 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 6 0.612 0.390 0.345 1.113 0.062 0.349 MINIMUM VALUE 66 2.239 0.695 -0.724 2.717 0.189 -0.080 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 79 2.566 0.847 0.497 3.077 0.270 0.204 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 85 3.178 1.236 0.843 4.191 0.332 0.553 MAXIMUM VALUE 94 3.665 1.724 2.201 10.572 0.395 0.700 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 435 0.347 0.168 0.008 0.028 2.824 -0.103 0.824 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.103 SERIES 553031 AND 553071 75 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.824 SERIES 553131 AND 553132 82 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 78.64 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. CORR 378. 435. 435. 435. 435. 325. 3. RBAR 0.343 0.420 0.278 0.410 0.240 0.247 0.269 SDEV 0.252 0.205 0.235 0.214 0.255 0.233 0.194 SERR 0.013 0.010 0.011 0.010 0.012 0.013 0.112 EPS 0.940 0.956 0.920 0.954 0.904 0.906 0.894 NSS 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.3 22.9 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1882 1979 98 2.776 0.701 0.187 2.564 0.201 0.526 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.635 0.302 0.067 19 79 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.22 0.36 1.00 1.04 1.39 1.67 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.06 0.00 0.87 0.94 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 83. 6. 66. 79. 85. 94. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.520 0.586 0.535 0.469 0.507 0.478 0.457 0.414 0.425 0.412 PACF 0.520 0.432 0.232 0.056 0.142 0.108 0.048 -0.029 0.046 0.056 95% C.L. 0.202 0.251 0.302 0.338 0.364 0.391 0.415 0.435 0.450 0.466 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.474 0.165 0.401 0.246 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 553011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.03114752 2.11106133 2 553012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00856543 2.29579067 3 553021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.05024175 1.37140751 4 553022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.04086904 1.72120726 5 553031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02546748 1.84706795 6 553032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02753938 1.59074783 7 553041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01204518 2.08877563 8 553042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00876412 2.12118435 9 553051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02823790 1.64774323 10 553052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.03982255 1.38704205 11 553061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02589510 1.34733105 12 553062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.03220163 1.45415807 13 553071 1 0.27696335 0.04056204 0.00000000 2.90073943 14 553072 1 0.23601197 0.01423439 0.00000000 3.03424239 15 553081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00700562 2.24991560 16 553082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00014734 2.51062918 17 553091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.03929936 0.74412578 18 553092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01048506 1.84023428 19 553101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00441313 3.30376458 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 553102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00288044 3.77362919 21 553111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.03852270 1.81479251 22 553112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.05123114 1.05023062 23 553121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02673199 2.04983449 24 553122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02238302 2.14130855 25 553131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02262796 2.74967289 26 553132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02097410 2.74681258 27 553141 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01785369 1.72732818 28 553142 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01967507 1.75786829 29 553151 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01353959 1.74873829 30 553152 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02347383 1.51063144 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 553011 1899 1977 79 0.999 0.292 0.178 3.046 0.299 0.180 2 553012 1901 1975 75 1.000 0.365 0.567 2.690 0.406 0.037 3 553021 1893 1976 84 1.005 0.315 0.144 3.930 0.347 0.089 4 553022 1889 1973 85 0.991 0.303 -0.306 3.831 0.293 0.345 5 553031 1894 1974 81 0.994 0.377 0.688 3.080 0.388 0.115 6 553032 1892 1976 85 0.990 0.364 0.663 3.225 0.332 0.229 7 553041 1900 1979 80 1.000 0.325 0.293 2.625 0.372 -0.011 8 553042 1896 1978 83 1.000 0.317 0.421 2.477 0.288 0.349 9 553051 1894 1976 83 0.994 0.342 0.701 4.954 0.364 0.149 10 553052 1894 1978 85 0.987 0.346 0.529 2.668 0.328 0.447 11 553061 1894 1976 83 1.015 0.442 3.273 16.854 0.281 0.440 12 553062 1894 1976 83 1.017 0.401 1.876 6.859 0.268 0.497 13 553071 1900 1975 76 1.000 0.280 0.491 2.823 0.283 0.139 14 553072 1901 1975 75 1.000 0.267 0.664 4.464 0.246 0.099 15 553081 1891 1979 89 1.000 0.290 0.456 3.306 0.292 0.168 16 553082 1890 1979 90 1.000 0.276 0.413 3.803 0.303 0.087 17 553091 1891 1973 83 1.054 0.583 3.468 19.074 0.303 0.592 18 553092 1899 1973 75 1.001 0.379 1.802 7.817 0.338 0.205 19 553101 1893 1977 85 1.000 0.222 0.011 7.101 0.220 -0.106 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 553102 1893 1975 83 1.000 0.236 -0.545 6.460 0.238 0.046 21 553111 1899 1964 66 0.998 0.265 -0.014 2.964 0.257 0.325 22 553112 1896 1962 67 1.014 0.256 0.761 3.253 0.253 0.164 23 553121 1896 1974 79 0.995 0.321 0.168 2.729 0.322 0.234 24 553122 1894 1974 81 0.998 0.295 0.551 2.983 0.297 0.156 25 553131 1887 1968 82 1.000 0.163 0.051 3.543 0.188 0.032 26 553132 1883 1968 86 0.999 0.206 0.961 5.599 0.194 0.211 27 553141 1882 1974 93 1.001 0.296 0.078 2.590 0.290 0.310 28 553142 1887 1974 88 1.002 0.295 0.696 3.933 0.271 0.365 29 553151 1886 1973 88 1.001 0.310 0.752 4.005 0.301 0.147 30 553152 1883 1976 94 1.006 0.311 0.453 2.879 0.307 0.211 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 82 1.002 0.315 0.675 4.852 0.296 0.208 STANDARD DEVIATION 6 0.012 0.077 0.885 3.862 0.052 0.159 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 83 1.000 0.306 0.510 3.425 0.295 0.174 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 6 0.003 0.070 0.533 2.075 0.060 0.226 MINIMUM VALUE 66 0.987 0.163 -0.545 2.477 0.188 -0.106 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 79 0.998 0.276 0.168 2.879 0.268 0.099 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 85 1.001 0.346 0.701 4.954 0.328 0.325 MAXIMUM VALUE 94 1.054 0.583 3.468 19.074 0.406 0.592 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 553011 -67 52 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 553012 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 553021 -67 56 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 553022 -67 56 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 553031 -67 54 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 553032 -67 56 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 553041 -67 53 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 553042 -67 55 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 553051 -67 55 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 553052 -67 56 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 553061 -67 55 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 553062 -67 55 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 553071 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 553072 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 553081 -67 59 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 553082 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 553091 -67 55 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 553092 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 553101 -67 56 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 553102 -67 55 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 553111 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 553112 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 553121 -67 52 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 553122 -67 54 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 553131 -67 54 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 553132 -67 57 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 27 553141 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 28 553142 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 29 553151 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 30 553152 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 553011 1899 1977 79 0.996 0.270 0.226 3.319 0.298 0.001 2 553012 1901 1975 75 0.994 0.332 0.475 3.039 0.407 -0.186 3 553021 1893 1976 84 0.999 0.303 -0.102 3.530 0.347 0.063 4 553022 1889 1973 85 0.996 0.286 -0.300 3.947 0.293 0.238 5 553031 1894 1974 81 0.997 0.350 1.155 5.071 0.387 -0.084 6 553032 1892 1976 85 0.996 0.305 0.758 3.896 0.332 -0.003 7 553041 1900 1979 80 0.999 0.320 0.285 2.662 0.371 -0.028 8 553042 1896 1978 83 0.997 0.300 0.565 3.019 0.287 0.259 9 553051 1894 1976 83 0.998 0.315 0.530 4.228 0.363 -0.035 10 553052 1894 1978 85 0.996 0.302 0.562 2.884 0.326 0.206 11 553061 1894 1976 83 0.997 0.277 0.995 4.557 0.281 0.173 12 553062 1894 1976 83 0.994 0.256 0.745 4.240 0.265 0.050 13 553071 1900 1975 76 0.999 0.270 0.340 2.644 0.283 0.095 14 553072 1901 1975 75 0.995 0.225 0.361 4.544 0.247 -0.140 15 553081 1891 1979 89 0.999 0.274 0.283 3.054 0.292 0.096 16 553082 1890 1979 90 0.999 0.274 0.504 3.998 0.303 0.065 17 553091 1891 1973 83 0.992 0.310 1.105 6.404 0.302 0.135 18 553092 1899 1973 75 0.998 0.353 1.685 7.794 0.338 0.106 19 553101 1893 1977 85 1.000 0.214 -0.268 6.929 0.220 -0.137 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 553102 1893 1975 83 0.999 0.239 -0.161 6.483 0.238 -0.051 21 553111 1899 1964 66 0.993 0.225 -0.097 2.657 0.255 0.012 22 553112 1896 1962 67 0.998 0.202 0.264 2.675 0.253 -0.170 23 553121 1896 1974 79 0.995 0.283 0.245 2.945 0.322 0.035 24 553122 1894 1974 81 0.998 0.269 0.394 3.198 0.295 -0.018 25 553131 1887 1968 82 1.000 0.159 0.065 3.766 0.188 -0.035 26 553132 1883 1968 86 0.999 0.191 0.964 5.945 0.193 0.109 27 553141 1882 1974 93 0.998 0.283 0.070 2.708 0.291 0.235 28 553142 1887 1974 88 0.998 0.271 0.447 3.390 0.271 0.246 29 553151 1886 1973 88 0.997 0.291 0.754 3.745 0.300 0.036 30 553152 1883 1976 94 0.998 0.279 0.251 3.087 0.307 0.035 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 82 0.997 0.274 0.437 4.012 0.295 0.044 STANDARD DEVIATION 6 0.002 0.045 0.451 1.405 0.052 0.124 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 83 0.998 0.278 0.377 3.637 0.294 0.036 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 6 0.003 0.047 0.519 1.525 0.061 0.144 MINIMUM VALUE 66 0.992 0.159 -0.300 2.644 0.188 -0.186 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 79 0.996 0.256 0.226 3.019 0.265 -0.035 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 85 0.999 0.303 0.745 4.544 0.326 0.109 MAXIMUM VALUE 94 1.000 0.353 1.685 7.794 0.407 0.259 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 435 0.279 0.123 0.006 0.378 3.551 -0.013 0.746 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.013 SERIES 553031 AND 553071 75 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.746 SERIES 553141 AND 553142 88 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 78.64 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. CORR 378. 435. 435. 435. 435. 325. 3. RBAR 0.368 0.389 0.343 0.355 0.289 0.224 0.243 SDEV 0.204 0.196 0.212 0.203 0.233 0.229 0.194 SERR 0.010 0.009 0.010 0.010 0.011 0.013 0.112 EPS 0.946 0.950 0.940 0.943 0.924 0.894 0.880 NSS 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.3 22.9 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1882 1979 98 0.985 0.154 0.164 2.612 0.192 -0.064 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.217 0.095 0.125 30 68 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.16 0.42 1.00 1.09 1.51 6.55 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.06 0.00 0.89 0.95 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.063 0.092 -0.032 -0.153 -0.027 -0.030 -0.124 -0.120 -0.076 0.014 PACF -0.063 0.088 -0.021 -0.166 -0.042 -0.004 -0.135 -0.171 -0.093 0.008 95% C.L. 0.202 0.203 0.205 0.205 0.209 0.209 0.210 0.213 0.215 0.216 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.110 0.127 0.020 -0.096 -0.010 -0.082 -0.087 -0.217 -0.143 0.013 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 -0.110 2 -0.097 0.116 3 -0.103 0.120 0.046 4 -0.098 0.133 0.035 -0.107 5 -0.102 0.135 0.040 -0.111 -0.040 6 -0.105 0.128 0.043 -0.103 -0.046 -0.063 7 -0.111 0.123 0.033 -0.099 -0.034 -0.073 -0.094 8 -0.133 0.106 0.025 -0.122 -0.026 -0.044 -0.120 -0.239 9 -0.179 0.082 0.017 -0.127 -0.050 -0.039 -0.099 -0.265 -0.195 10 -0.178 0.084 0.017 -0.127 -0.050 -0.038 -0.099 -0.265 -0.194 0.007 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 721.70 722.50 723.18 724.97 725.84 727.68 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 729.29 730.43 726.68 724.88 726.87 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 0 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 553011 0 0.000 2 553012 0 0.036 3 553021 0 0.004 4 553022 0 0.063 5 553031 0 0.007 6 553032 0 0.000 7 553041 0 0.001 8 553042 0 0.067 9 553051 0 0.001 10 553052 0 0.043 11 553061 0 0.036 12 553062 0 0.003 13 553071 0 0.009 14 553072 0 0.020 15 553081 0 0.010 16 553082 0 0.005 17 553091 0 0.020 18 553092 0 0.011 19 553101 0 0.023 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 553102 0 0.003 21 553111 0 0.000 22 553112 0 0.030 23 553121 0 0.001 24 553122 0 0.000 25 553131 0 0.001 26 553132 0 0.013 27 553141 0 0.057 28 553142 0 0.063 29 553151 0 0.001 30 553152 0 0.001 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 0 0.018 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.022 MEDIAN 0 0.008 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.029 MINIMUM VALUE 0 0.000 LOWER HINGE 0 0.001 UPPER HINGE 0 0.030 MAXIMUM VALUE 0 0.067 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 553011 1899 1977 79 1.000 0.270 0.226 3.319 0.297 0.001 2 553012 1901 1975 75 1.000 0.332 0.475 3.039 0.404 -0.186 3 553021 1893 1976 84 1.000 0.303 -0.102 3.530 0.347 0.063 4 553022 1889 1973 85 1.000 0.286 -0.300 3.947 0.291 0.238 5 553031 1894 1974 81 1.000 0.350 1.155 5.071 0.385 -0.084 6 553032 1892 1976 85 1.000 0.305 0.758 3.896 0.330 -0.003 7 553041 1900 1979 80 1.000 0.320 0.285 2.662 0.371 -0.028 8 553042 1896 1978 83 1.000 0.300 0.565 3.019 0.286 0.259 9 553051 1894 1976 83 1.000 0.315 0.530 4.228 0.362 -0.035 10 553052 1894 1978 85 1.000 0.302 0.562 2.884 0.325 0.206 11 553061 1894 1976 83 1.000 0.277 0.995 4.557 0.280 0.173 12 553062 1894 1976 83 1.000 0.256 0.745 4.240 0.264 0.050 13 553071 1900 1975 76 1.000 0.270 0.340 2.644 0.282 0.095 14 553072 1901 1975 75 1.000 0.225 0.361 4.544 0.246 -0.140 15 553081 1891 1979 89 1.000 0.274 0.283 3.054 0.292 0.096 16 553082 1890 1979 90 1.000 0.274 0.504 3.998 0.303 0.065 17 553091 1891 1973 83 1.000 0.310 1.105 6.404 0.300 0.135 18 553092 1899 1973 75 1.000 0.353 1.685 7.794 0.337 0.106 19 553101 1893 1977 85 1.000 0.214 -0.268 6.929 0.220 -0.137 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 553102 1893 1975 83 1.000 0.239 -0.161 6.483 0.238 -0.051 21 553111 1899 1964 66 1.000 0.225 -0.097 2.657 0.254 0.012 22 553112 1896 1962 67 1.000 0.202 0.264 2.675 0.252 -0.170 23 553121 1896 1974 79 1.000 0.283 0.245 2.945 0.320 0.035 24 553122 1894 1974 81 1.000 0.269 0.394 3.198 0.295 -0.018 25 553131 1887 1968 82 1.000 0.159 0.065 3.766 0.188 -0.035 26 553132 1883 1968 86 1.000 0.191 0.964 5.945 0.193 0.109 27 553141 1882 1974 93 1.000 0.283 0.070 2.708 0.290 0.235 28 553142 1887 1974 88 1.000 0.271 0.447 3.390 0.270 0.246 29 553151 1886 1973 88 1.000 0.291 0.754 3.745 0.300 0.036 30 553152 1883 1976 94 1.000 0.279 0.251 3.087 0.306 0.035 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 82 1.000 0.274 0.437 4.012 0.294 0.044 STANDARD DEVIATION 6 0.000 0.045 0.451 1.405 0.051 0.124 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 83 1.000 0.278 0.377 3.637 0.293 0.036 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 6 0.000 0.047 0.519 1.525 0.061 0.144 MINIMUM VALUE 66 1.000 0.159 -0.300 2.644 0.188 -0.186 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 79 1.000 0.256 0.226 3.019 0.264 -0.035 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 85 1.000 0.303 0.745 4.544 0.325 0.109 MAXIMUM VALUE 94 1.000 0.353 1.685 7.794 0.404 0.259 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 435 0.279 0.123 0.006 0.378 3.551 -0.013 0.746 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.013 SERIES 553031 AND 553071 75 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.746 SERIES 553141 AND 553142 88 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 78.64 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. CORR 378. 435. 435. 435. 435. 325. 3. RBAR 0.368 0.389 0.343 0.355 0.289 0.224 0.243 SDEV 0.204 0.196 0.212 0.203 0.233 0.229 0.194 SERR 0.010 0.009 0.010 0.010 0.011 0.013 0.112 EPS 0.946 0.950 0.940 0.943 0.924 0.894 0.880 NSS 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.3 22.9 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1882 1979 98 0.988 0.154 0.166 2.611 0.191 -0.064 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.219 0.096 0.123 30 68 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.16 0.42 1.01 1.09 1.51 6.16 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.06 0.00 0.89 0.95 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.063 0.093 -0.032 -0.153 -0.027 -0.030 -0.124 -0.119 -0.076 0.014 PACF -0.063 0.089 -0.022 -0.167 -0.041 -0.004 -0.135 -0.171 -0.093 0.008 95% C.L. 0.202 0.203 0.205 0.205 0.209 0.210 0.210 0.213 0.215 0.217 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1882 1979 98 0.988 0.154 0.166 2.611 0.191 -0.064 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.063 0.093 -0.032 -0.153 -0.027 -0.030 -0.124 -0.119 -0.076 0.014 PACF -0.063 0.089 -0.022 -0.167 -0.041 -0.004 -0.135 -0.171 -0.093 0.008 95% C.L. 0.202 0.203 0.205 0.205 0.209 0.210 0.210 0.213 0.215 0.217 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.29 MINUTES