RUN: SWIT004 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWIT155W.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWIT155W.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 20 10 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 553 1 Lindenwald BE,Tanne abst WIDTH_RING ABAL - 553 2 Switzerland silver fir, European fir 560 4702-724 1882 1979 - 553 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 2 553012 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1970 1970 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 553021 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1967 1967 / 1970 1970 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 553022 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1967 1967 / 1970 1970 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 553041 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1976 1976 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 553061 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1973 1973 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 25 553131 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1961 1961 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 553011 1899 1977 79 2.229 1.142 0.000 2.233 0.269 0.814 2 553012 1901 1975 75 2.408 1.264 -0.074 2.579 0.275 0.807 3 553021 1893 1976 84 2.334 1.371 0.274 2.446 0.281 0.836 4 553022 1889 1973 85 2.451 1.384 -0.165 2.211 0.232 0.850 5 553031 1894 1974 81 2.472 1.029 0.242 3.464 0.283 0.696 6 553032 1892 1976 85 2.288 1.248 -0.111 2.445 0.262 0.859 7 553041 1900 1979 80 2.207 1.280 1.091 4.865 0.233 0.851 8 553042 1896 1978 83 2.466 1.202 -0.332 2.166 0.247 0.853 9 553051 1894 1976 83 2.160 1.120 0.441 2.303 0.256 0.814 10 553052 1894 1978 85 2.085 0.939 -0.059 2.295 0.274 0.779 11 553061 1894 1976 83 2.294 1.356 -0.104 1.934 0.244 0.863 12 553062 1894 1976 83 2.358 1.277 -0.182 2.128 0.260 0.862 13 553071 1900 1975 76 2.259 1.144 -0.074 1.810 0.241 0.867 14 553072 1901 1975 75 1.788 1.042 0.385 2.183 0.234 0.889 15 553081 1891 1979 89 1.795 0.758 -0.313 3.000 0.223 0.768 16 553082 1890 1979 90 2.100 0.729 -1.219 3.998 0.194 0.759 17 553091 1891 1973 83 2.388 1.230 -0.171 1.812 0.246 0.866 18 553092 1899 1973 75 2.614 1.080 -0.128 2.463 0.237 0.792 19 553101 1893 1977 85 1.838 0.924 -0.203 2.060 0.251 0.874 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 553102 1893 1975 83 2.182 0.981 -0.602 2.416 0.218 0.843 21 553111 1899 1964 66 2.119 1.181 0.091 2.318 0.232 0.846 22 553112 1896 1962 67 2.685 1.174 -0.441 2.940 0.216 0.825 23 553121 1896 1974 79 1.914 0.957 0.104 2.450 0.263 0.829 24 553122 1894 1974 81 1.743 0.916 0.085 2.094 0.242 0.865 25 553131 1887 1968 82 1.807 0.813 0.272 3.228 0.212 0.813 26 553132 1883 1968 86 1.767 0.970 0.762 4.032 0.232 0.825 27 553141 1882 1974 93 2.578 1.070 -0.822 2.868 0.210 0.805 28 553142 1887 1974 88 2.264 1.078 -0.338 2.434 0.204 0.833 29 553151 1886 1973 88 2.226 1.091 -0.163 2.300 0.189 0.864 30 553152 1883 1976 94 1.965 1.116 0.413 2.490 0.232 0.877 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 30 FROM 1882 TO 1979 98 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 82 2.193 1.095 -0.045 2.599 0.240 0.831 STANDARD DEVIATION 6 0.268 0.173 0.444 0.701 0.025 0.042 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 83 2.227 1.103 -0.089 2.425 0.239 0.840 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 6 0.423 0.260 0.446 0.686 0.036 0.051 MINIMUM VALUE 66 1.743 0.729 -1.219 1.810 0.189 0.696 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 79 1.965 0.970 -0.203 2.183 0.223 0.813 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 85 2.388 1.230 0.242 2.868 0.260 0.863 MAXIMUM VALUE 94 2.685 1.384 1.091 4.865 0.283 0.889 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 435 0.702 0.140 0.007 -0.886 3.514 0.233 0.951 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.233 SERIES 553031 AND 553111 66 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.951 SERIES 553021 AND 553022 81 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 78.64 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. CORR 378. 435. 435. 435. 435. 325. 3. RBAR 0.327 0.364 0.401 0.535 0.491 0.532 0.589 SDEV 0.311 0.291 0.239 0.299 0.270 0.272 0.059 SERR 0.016 0.014 0.011 0.014 0.013 0.015 0.034 EPS 0.936 0.945 0.953 0.972 0.967 0.971 0.970 NSS 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.3 22.9 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1882 1979 98 2.210 1.082 -0.354 2.206 0.177 0.904 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.540 0.119 0.314 36 62 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.27 1.29 1.00 1.10 2.39 5.19 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.09 0.00 0.87 0.96 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 83. 6. 66. 79. 85. 94. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.895 0.853 0.802 0.775 0.752 0.733 0.706 0.671 0.625 0.585 PACF 0.895 0.261 0.025 0.103 0.077 0.055 -0.010 -0.059 -0.092 -0.045 95% C.L. 0.202 0.326 0.407 0.467 0.517 0.560 0.598 0.631 0.659 0.683 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.886 0.496 0.463 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 553011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.04253846 3.93027258 2 553012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.04328154 4.02893353 3 553021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.05114857 4.46152830 4 553022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.05138623 4.60895300 5 553031 1 2.61053538 0.08112076 0.00000000 2.09123969 6 553032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.04038167 4.02429438 7 553041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.03104286 3.44102407 8 553042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.02909890 3.68841910 9 553051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.03743755 3.73225689 10 553052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.02870002 3.31904197 11 553061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.05127199 4.42179728 12 553062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.04097330 4.07895088 13 553071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.04404949 3.95511580 14 553072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.04400114 3.45990992 15 553081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.02319935 2.83891463 16 553082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01714854 2.87992501 17 553091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.04084463 4.10378790 18 553092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.02961735 3.73905945 19 553101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.03429353 3.31309247 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 553102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.02791780 3.35471654 21 553111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.05244359 3.87549663 22 553112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.04219411 4.11922646 23 553121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.03590725 3.35072064 24 553122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.03413257 3.14289188 25 553131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.03080009 3.07109356 26 553132 1 3.50577068 0.02576162 0.00000000 0.37500009 27 553141 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.02510310 3.75748014 28 553142 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.02488808 3.37104225 29 553151 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.03571484 3.81521940 30 553152 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.03726663 3.73548388 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 553011 1899 1977 79 0.974 0.291 0.137 2.725 0.263 0.368 2 553012 1901 1975 75 0.960 0.408 0.180 2.862 0.266 0.668 3 553021 1893 1976 84 1.033 0.470 2.557 11.799 0.284 0.538 4 553022 1889 1973 85 0.952 0.330 -0.028 2.941 0.240 0.658 5 553031 1894 1974 81 1.000 0.387 0.683 6.151 0.279 0.580 6 553032 1892 1976 85 0.957 0.420 0.463 3.371 0.257 0.703 7 553041 1900 1979 80 0.967 0.471 1.577 6.187 0.231 0.794 8 553042 1896 1978 83 0.974 0.427 -0.104 2.308 0.243 0.804 9 553051 1894 1976 83 1.009 0.380 1.122 5.309 0.249 0.504 10 553052 1894 1978 85 1.003 0.418 1.979 9.730 0.267 0.585 11 553061 1894 1976 83 0.953 0.278 0.170 2.560 0.239 0.517 12 553062 1894 1976 83 0.960 0.396 0.392 3.615 0.254 0.701 13 553071 1900 1975 76 0.981 0.295 0.259 3.366 0.237 0.523 14 553072 1901 1975 75 1.074 0.430 2.117 7.910 0.227 0.573 15 553081 1891 1979 89 0.982 0.312 0.409 3.721 0.220 0.597 16 553082 1890 1979 90 0.991 0.329 -0.761 3.818 0.191 0.732 17 553091 1891 1973 83 0.972 0.332 0.397 3.083 0.241 0.613 18 553092 1899 1973 75 0.988 0.353 0.343 3.329 0.231 0.679 19 553101 1893 1977 85 0.973 0.247 -0.754 4.075 0.245 0.279 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 553102 1893 1975 83 0.976 0.392 0.064 2.852 0.215 0.768 21 553111 1899 1964 66 0.970 0.299 0.060 2.736 0.226 0.578 22 553112 1896 1962 67 0.981 0.362 -0.456 2.486 0.212 0.754 23 553121 1896 1974 79 0.998 0.354 0.996 5.558 0.260 0.596 24 553122 1894 1974 81 0.986 0.279 0.419 3.176 0.238 0.467 25 553131 1887 1968 82 0.991 0.221 -0.416 3.858 0.217 0.235 26 553132 1883 1968 86 0.994 0.363 0.345 3.699 0.229 0.663 27 553141 1882 1974 93 0.983 0.395 0.024 3.054 0.207 0.762 28 553142 1887 1974 88 0.978 0.443 0.360 2.855 0.202 0.776 29 553151 1886 1973 88 0.976 0.339 1.111 4.871 0.186 0.694 30 553152 1883 1976 94 1.059 0.470 2.513 10.671 0.230 0.560 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 82 0.986 0.363 0.539 4.489 0.236 0.609 STANDARD DEVIATION 6 0.028 0.067 0.869 2.492 0.024 0.142 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 83 0.981 0.363 0.353 3.493 0.237 0.605 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 6 0.021 0.106 0.936 2.446 0.033 0.166 MINIMUM VALUE 66 0.952 0.221 -0.761 2.308 0.186 0.235 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 79 0.972 0.312 0.060 2.862 0.220 0.538 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 85 0.994 0.418 0.996 5.309 0.254 0.703 MAXIMUM VALUE 94 1.074 0.471 2.557 11.799 0.284 0.804 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 553011 -67 52 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 553012 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 553021 -67 56 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 553022 -67 56 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 553031 -67 54 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 553032 -67 56 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 553041 -67 53 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 553042 -67 55 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 553051 -67 55 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 553052 -67 56 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 553061 -67 55 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 553062 -67 55 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 553071 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 553072 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 553081 -67 59 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 553082 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 553091 -67 55 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 553092 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 553101 -67 56 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 553102 -67 55 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 553111 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 553112 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 553121 -67 52 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 553122 -67 54 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 553131 -67 54 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 553132 -67 57 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 27 553141 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 28 553142 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 29 553151 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 30 553152 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 553011 1899 1977 79 0.998 0.270 0.824 4.242 0.262 0.187 2 553012 1901 1975 75 0.988 0.331 1.076 6.175 0.262 0.436 3 553021 1893 1976 84 0.990 0.337 0.372 3.876 0.286 0.460 4 553022 1889 1973 85 0.996 0.297 0.471 4.067 0.239 0.392 5 553031 1894 1974 81 0.985 0.348 0.477 4.725 0.275 0.505 6 553032 1892 1976 85 0.994 0.349 0.830 3.737 0.255 0.414 7 553041 1900 1979 80 0.995 0.294 1.591 6.337 0.231 0.293 8 553042 1896 1978 83 0.999 0.298 1.006 6.160 0.239 0.305 9 553051 1894 1976 83 0.996 0.351 1.019 5.503 0.248 0.460 10 553052 1894 1978 85 0.997 0.399 1.744 8.802 0.267 0.568 11 553061 1894 1976 83 0.997 0.245 0.995 5.562 0.238 0.215 12 553062 1894 1976 83 0.995 0.369 1.610 6.893 0.253 0.449 13 553071 1900 1975 76 0.997 0.271 0.159 3.445 0.237 0.350 14 553072 1901 1975 75 0.991 0.244 0.169 2.825 0.225 0.324 15 553081 1891 1979 89 0.994 0.242 1.137 6.000 0.219 0.341 16 553082 1890 1979 90 0.979 0.262 -0.013 4.539 0.187 0.603 17 553091 1891 1973 83 0.996 0.276 0.409 5.086 0.240 0.346 18 553092 1899 1973 75 0.994 0.297 1.540 8.127 0.229 0.468 19 553101 1893 1977 85 0.998 0.228 -0.489 3.943 0.245 -0.018 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 553102 1893 1975 83 0.986 0.245 -0.046 3.403 0.209 0.420 21 553111 1899 1964 66 0.996 0.260 -0.299 2.402 0.227 0.354 22 553112 1896 1962 67 0.990 0.286 0.324 4.073 0.216 0.449 23 553121 1896 1974 79 0.996 0.338 0.866 5.201 0.259 0.567 24 553122 1894 1974 81 0.998 0.267 0.434 3.302 0.237 0.392 25 553131 1887 1968 82 0.997 0.203 0.304 6.820 0.217 -0.089 26 553132 1883 1968 86 0.982 0.276 0.612 4.132 0.228 0.440 27 553141 1882 1974 93 0.978 0.226 0.701 4.343 0.209 0.372 28 553142 1887 1974 88 0.995 0.285 1.037 4.443 0.202 0.538 29 553151 1886 1973 88 0.994 0.270 1.453 6.231 0.186 0.550 30 553152 1883 1976 94 0.996 0.318 0.643 4.193 0.230 0.504 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 82 0.993 0.289 0.699 4.953 0.235 0.386 STANDARD DEVIATION 6 0.006 0.047 0.572 1.517 0.024 0.156 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 83 0.995 0.281 0.672 4.491 0.237 0.417 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 6 0.007 0.071 0.713 2.217 0.034 0.127 MINIMUM VALUE 66 0.978 0.203 -0.489 2.402 0.186 -0.089 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 79 0.990 0.260 0.324 3.943 0.219 0.341 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 85 0.997 0.331 1.037 6.160 0.253 0.468 MAXIMUM VALUE 94 0.999 0.399 1.744 8.802 0.286 0.603 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 435 0.265 0.192 0.009 -0.203 2.706 -0.301 0.777 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.301 SERIES 553021 AND 553082 84 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.777 SERIES 553011 AND 553012 75 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 78.64 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. CORR 378. 435. 435. 435. 435. 325. 3. RBAR 0.390 0.361 0.423 0.328 0.364 0.284 0.059 SDEV 0.235 0.265 0.222 0.304 0.298 0.293 0.080 SERR 0.012 0.013 0.011 0.015 0.014 0.016 0.046 EPS 0.950 0.944 0.956 0.936 0.945 0.921 0.591 NSS 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.3 22.9 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1882 1979 98 0.981 0.152 -0.039 3.418 0.169 0.102 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.050 -0.040 0.256 35 63 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.26 0.46 1.00 1.13 1.59 4.65 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.07 0.00 0.88 0.96 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.101 0.153 0.073 -0.096 -0.128 0.021 -0.158 0.008 0.001 -0.091 PACF 0.101 0.145 0.046 -0.133 -0.133 0.078 -0.116 0.023 0.007 -0.090 95% C.L. 0.202 0.204 0.209 0.210 0.212 0.215 0.215 0.219 0.219 0.219 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.023 0.189 0.016 -0.130 -0.133 -0.044 -0.170 -0.008 -0.032 -0.091 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.023 2 0.019 0.188 3 0.017 0.188 0.008 4 0.019 0.221 0.011 -0.172 5 -0.006 0.222 0.042 -0.170 -0.142 6 -0.003 0.226 0.042 -0.174 -0.141 0.020 7 -0.001 0.209 0.021 -0.169 -0.115 0.020 -0.116 8 -0.003 0.210 0.019 -0.172 -0.115 0.024 -0.116 -0.019 9 -0.003 0.208 0.020 -0.174 -0.117 0.024 -0.113 -0.019 -0.013 10 -0.004 0.206 0.007 -0.171 -0.130 0.005 -0.111 0.004 -0.013 -0.111 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 724.20 726.14 724.60 726.59 725.64 725.66 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 727.62 728.30 730.26 732.24 733.03 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 0 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 553011 0 0.035 2 553012 0 0.192 3 553021 0 0.233 4 553022 0 0.154 5 553031 0 0.277 6 553032 0 0.190 7 553041 0 0.094 8 553042 0 0.107 9 553051 0 0.223 10 553052 0 0.324 11 553061 0 0.046 12 553062 0 0.208 13 553071 0 0.137 14 553072 0 0.107 15 553081 0 0.122 16 553082 0 0.389 17 553091 0 0.124 18 553092 0 0.236 19 553101 0 0.000 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 553102 0 0.178 21 553111 0 0.129 22 553112 0 0.236 23 553121 0 0.327 24 553122 0 0.154 25 553131 0 0.008 26 553132 0 0.196 27 553141 0 0.141 28 553142 0 0.304 29 553151 0 0.303 30 553152 0 0.272 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 0 0.182 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.098 MEDIAN 0 0.184 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.114 MINIMUM VALUE 0 0.000 LOWER HINGE 0 0.122 UPPER HINGE 0 0.236 MAXIMUM VALUE 0 0.389 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 553011 1899 1977 79 1.000 0.270 0.824 4.242 0.261 0.187 2 553012 1901 1975 75 1.000 0.331 1.076 6.175 0.258 0.436 3 553021 1893 1976 84 1.000 0.337 0.372 3.876 0.282 0.460 4 553022 1889 1973 85 1.000 0.297 0.471 4.067 0.238 0.392 5 553031 1894 1974 81 1.000 0.348 0.477 4.725 0.270 0.505 6 553032 1892 1976 85 1.000 0.349 0.830 3.737 0.253 0.414 7 553041 1900 1979 80 1.000 0.294 1.591 6.337 0.230 0.293 8 553042 1896 1978 83 1.000 0.298 1.006 6.160 0.239 0.305 9 553051 1894 1976 83 1.000 0.351 1.019 5.503 0.247 0.460 10 553052 1894 1978 85 1.000 0.399 1.744 8.802 0.266 0.568 11 553061 1894 1976 83 1.000 0.245 0.995 5.562 0.237 0.215 12 553062 1894 1976 83 1.000 0.369 1.610 6.893 0.251 0.449 13 553071 1900 1975 76 1.000 0.271 0.159 3.445 0.236 0.350 14 553072 1901 1975 75 1.000 0.244 0.169 2.825 0.223 0.324 15 553081 1891 1979 89 1.000 0.242 1.137 6.000 0.218 0.341 16 553082 1890 1979 90 1.000 0.262 -0.013 4.539 0.183 0.603 17 553091 1891 1973 83 1.000 0.276 0.409 5.086 0.238 0.346 18 553092 1899 1973 75 1.000 0.297 1.540 8.127 0.228 0.468 19 553101 1893 1977 85 1.000 0.228 -0.489 3.943 0.244 -0.018 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 553102 1893 1975 83 1.000 0.245 -0.046 3.403 0.205 0.420 21 553111 1899 1964 66 1.000 0.260 -0.299 2.402 0.226 0.354 22 553112 1896 1962 67 1.000 0.286 0.324 4.073 0.213 0.449 23 553121 1896 1974 79 1.000 0.338 0.866 5.201 0.258 0.567 24 553122 1894 1974 81 1.000 0.267 0.434 3.302 0.237 0.392 25 553131 1887 1968 82 1.000 0.203 0.304 6.820 0.216 -0.089 26 553132 1883 1968 86 1.000 0.276 0.612 4.132 0.224 0.440 27 553141 1882 1974 93 1.000 0.226 0.701 4.343 0.204 0.372 28 553142 1887 1974 88 1.000 0.285 1.037 4.443 0.201 0.538 29 553151 1886 1973 88 1.000 0.270 1.453 6.231 0.185 0.550 30 553152 1883 1976 94 1.000 0.318 0.643 4.193 0.229 0.504 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 82 1.000 0.289 0.699 4.953 0.233 0.386 STANDARD DEVIATION 6 0.000 0.047 0.572 1.517 0.024 0.156 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 83 1.000 0.281 0.672 4.491 0.237 0.417 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 6 0.000 0.071 0.713 2.217 0.034 0.127 MINIMUM VALUE 66 1.000 0.203 -0.489 2.402 0.183 -0.089 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 79 1.000 0.260 0.324 3.943 0.218 0.341 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 85 1.000 0.331 1.037 6.160 0.251 0.468 MAXIMUM VALUE 94 1.000 0.399 1.744 8.802 0.282 0.603 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 435 0.265 0.192 0.009 -0.203 2.706 -0.301 0.777 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.301 SERIES 553021 AND 553082 84 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.777 SERIES 553011 AND 553012 75 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 78.64 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. CORR 378. 435. 435. 435. 435. 325. 3. RBAR 0.390 0.361 0.423 0.328 0.364 0.284 0.059 SDEV 0.235 0.265 0.222 0.304 0.298 0.293 0.080 SERR 0.012 0.013 0.011 0.015 0.014 0.016 0.046 EPS 0.950 0.944 0.956 0.936 0.945 0.921 0.591 NSS 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.3 22.9 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1882 1979 98 0.989 0.152 -0.042 3.416 0.167 0.106 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.057 -0.044 0.262 35 63 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.27 0.43 1.01 1.13 1.55 4.59 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.07 0.00 0.88 0.96 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.105 0.156 0.074 -0.094 -0.127 0.023 -0.156 0.011 0.002 -0.088 PACF 0.105 0.147 0.046 -0.132 -0.132 0.080 -0.114 0.026 0.008 -0.089 95% C.L. 0.202 0.204 0.209 0.210 0.212 0.215 0.215 0.220 0.220 0.220 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1882 1979 98 0.989 0.152 -0.042 3.416 0.167 0.106 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.105 0.156 0.074 -0.094 -0.127 0.023 -0.156 0.011 0.002 -0.088 PACF 0.105 0.147 0.046 -0.132 -0.132 0.080 -0.114 0.026 0.008 -0.089 95% C.L. 0.202 0.204 0.209 0.210 0.212 0.215 0.215 0.220 0.220 0.220 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.29 MINUTES