RUN: SWIT004 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWIT155X.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWIT155X.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 20 10 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 553 1 Lindenwald BE,Tanne abst DENSITY_MAXIMUM ABAL - 553 2 Switzerland silver fir, European fir 560 4702-724 1882 1979 - 553 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 2 553012 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1970 1970 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 553021 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1967 1967 / 1970 1970 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 553022 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1967 1967 / 1970 1970 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 553041 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1976 1976 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 553061 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1973 1973 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 25 553131 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1961 1961 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 553011 1899 1977 79 0.925 0.055 0.439 2.923 0.053 0.251 2 553012 1901 1975 75 0.858 0.094 -1.265 4.976 0.072 0.625 3 553021 1893 1976 84 0.857 0.073 -2.667 14.009 0.069 0.246 4 553022 1889 1973 85 0.861 0.082 -2.140 9.364 0.060 0.513 5 553031 1894 1974 81 0.856 0.058 -0.381 3.890 0.061 0.328 6 553032 1892 1976 85 0.834 0.078 -1.352 5.633 0.086 0.371 7 553041 1900 1979 80 0.835 0.081 -0.680 3.422 0.065 0.617 8 553042 1896 1978 83 0.876 0.060 -0.913 5.763 0.060 0.417 9 553051 1894 1976 83 0.860 0.068 -2.346 13.408 0.059 0.289 10 553052 1894 1978 85 0.877 0.057 -1.309 5.976 0.060 0.265 11 553061 1894 1976 83 0.863 0.057 -0.206 2.943 0.061 0.232 12 553062 1894 1976 83 0.856 0.073 -0.524 4.437 0.075 0.320 13 553071 1900 1975 76 0.863 0.062 -0.683 4.620 0.058 0.335 14 553072 1901 1975 75 0.869 0.047 -0.305 3.633 0.057 0.121 15 553081 1891 1979 89 0.835 0.053 0.402 2.880 0.063 0.139 16 553082 1890 1979 90 0.827 0.086 -0.927 4.461 0.073 0.595 17 553091 1891 1973 83 0.817 0.057 -0.397 3.307 0.072 0.205 18 553092 1899 1973 75 0.797 0.061 -0.168 3.200 0.059 0.522 19 553101 1893 1977 85 0.898 0.086 -2.308 9.191 0.059 0.507 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 553102 1893 1975 83 0.868 0.078 -1.735 6.343 0.057 0.681 21 553111 1899 1964 66 0.907 0.057 -1.293 5.794 0.053 0.347 22 553112 1896 1962 67 0.889 0.044 -0.006 3.445 0.052 0.116 23 553121 1896 1974 79 0.856 0.088 -1.360 5.949 0.081 0.470 24 553122 1894 1974 81 0.859 0.080 -1.413 5.031 0.063 0.646 25 553131 1887 1968 82 0.927 0.062 -0.744 4.578 0.059 0.347 26 553132 1883 1968 86 0.934 0.065 -0.511 3.491 0.068 0.259 27 553141 1882 1974 93 0.882 0.063 -0.182 3.551 0.064 0.294 28 553142 1887 1974 88 0.876 0.064 -0.503 3.845 0.059 0.403 29 553151 1886 1973 88 0.897 0.054 0.109 2.673 0.055 0.258 30 553152 1883 1976 94 0.881 0.062 -0.333 2.724 0.065 0.353 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 30 FROM 1882 TO 1979 98 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 82 0.868 0.067 -0.857 5.182 0.063 0.369 STANDARD DEVIATION 6 0.032 0.013 0.812 2.860 0.008 0.159 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 83 0.863 0.063 -0.681 4.449 0.060 0.341 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 6 0.025 0.021 1.046 2.372 0.010 0.249 MINIMUM VALUE 66 0.797 0.044 -2.667 2.673 0.052 0.116 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 79 0.856 0.057 -1.352 3.422 0.059 0.258 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 85 0.882 0.078 -0.305 5.794 0.068 0.507 MAXIMUM VALUE 94 0.934 0.094 0.439 14.009 0.086 0.681 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 435 0.512 0.141 0.007 -0.133 2.840 0.075 0.882 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.075 SERIES 553011 AND 553031 76 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.882 SERIES 553121 AND 553122 79 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 78.64 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. CORR 378. 435. 435. 435. 435. 325. 3. RBAR 0.548 0.547 0.485 0.502 0.538 0.348 0.347 SDEV 0.199 0.190 0.193 0.206 0.185 0.250 0.116 SERR 0.010 0.009 0.009 0.010 0.009 0.014 0.067 EPS 0.973 0.973 0.966 0.968 0.972 0.940 0.924 NSS 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.3 22.9 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1882 1979 98 0.869 0.057 -0.770 3.692 0.047 0.555 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.652 -0.336 0.347 30 68 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.12 0.16 1.00 1.04 1.21 3.58 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.06 0.00 0.89 0.95 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 83. 6. 66. 79. 85. 94. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.549 0.598 0.539 0.490 0.504 0.386 0.409 0.313 0.344 0.291 PACF 0.549 0.424 0.204 0.072 0.123 -0.082 0.023 -0.077 0.059 -0.001 95% C.L. 0.202 0.256 0.308 0.344 0.371 0.398 0.413 0.430 0.439 0.450 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.538 0.140 0.265 0.154 0.131 0.195 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 553011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00038169 0.94045764 2 553012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00311279 0.97448826 3 553021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00170157 0.92670643 4 553022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00212095 0.94826907 5 553031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00065447 0.88251233 6 553032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00129060 0.88902521 7 553041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00152259 0.89519435 8 553042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00126905 0.92968559 9 553051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00140065 0.91882747 10 553052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00110084 0.92451262 11 553061 1 0.11846091 0.10182687 0.00000000 0.84867442 12 553062 1 0.19086556 0.02230819 0.00000000 0.77009255 13 553071 1 0.09110638 0.08707635 0.00000000 0.84960461 14 553072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00041366 0.88438559 15 553081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00027579 0.84712970 16 553082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00244755 0.93869662 17 553091 1 0.10952542 0.08646140 0.00000000 0.80262858 18 553092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00173087 0.86230630 19 553101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00191714 0.98043698 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 553102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00199677 0.95181602 21 553111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00028327 0.91661072 22 553112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00035996 0.90074629 23 553121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00231840 0.94893867 24 553122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00214408 0.94729012 25 553131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00163589 0.99417126 26 553132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00126780 0.98933518 27 553141 1 0.29920474 0.00465223 0.00000000 0.63920587 28 553142 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00134286 0.93612069 29 553151 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00097689 0.94074452 30 553152 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00118275 0.93713796 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 553011 1899 1977 79 1.000 0.058 0.421 2.806 0.052 0.231 2 553012 1901 1975 75 1.000 0.082 -0.633 4.444 0.074 0.235 3 553021 1893 1976 84 1.000 0.074 -2.923 15.614 0.071 0.041 4 553022 1889 1973 85 1.000 0.084 -1.398 7.244 0.062 0.507 5 553031 1894 1974 81 1.000 0.065 -0.255 3.707 0.061 0.297 6 553032 1892 1976 85 1.000 0.088 -0.884 4.356 0.085 0.246 7 553041 1900 1979 80 1.000 0.088 -0.844 3.576 0.066 0.503 8 553042 1896 1978 83 1.000 0.059 -0.682 5.791 0.060 0.185 9 553051 1894 1976 83 1.000 0.071 -2.111 14.044 0.059 0.099 10 553052 1894 1978 85 1.000 0.058 -1.118 5.148 0.060 0.028 11 553061 1894 1976 83 1.000 0.061 -0.091 3.288 0.060 0.174 12 553062 1894 1976 83 1.000 0.069 -0.688 5.127 0.074 -0.043 13 553071 1900 1975 76 1.000 0.068 -0.651 4.697 0.057 0.258 14 553072 1901 1975 75 1.000 0.053 -0.343 3.391 0.057 0.087 15 553081 1891 1979 89 1.000 0.062 0.389 2.796 0.063 0.120 16 553082 1890 1979 90 1.000 0.073 -0.641 5.091 0.072 0.223 17 553091 1891 1973 83 1.000 0.064 -0.550 3.724 0.071 0.040 18 553092 1899 1973 75 1.000 0.060 0.333 2.873 0.058 0.259 19 553101 1893 1977 85 1.000 0.084 -1.763 8.850 0.059 0.336 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 553102 1893 1975 83 1.000 0.074 -1.090 5.369 0.057 0.539 21 553111 1899 1964 66 1.000 0.062 -1.275 5.656 0.052 0.335 22 553112 1896 1962 67 1.000 0.049 0.055 3.690 0.052 0.091 23 553121 1896 1974 79 1.000 0.085 -1.054 5.624 0.080 0.212 24 553122 1894 1974 81 1.000 0.074 -0.759 4.212 0.063 0.424 25 553131 1887 1968 82 1.000 0.052 -0.597 4.564 0.058 -0.004 26 553132 1883 1968 86 1.000 0.061 -0.613 3.706 0.068 0.040 27 553141 1882 1974 93 1.000 0.063 -0.061 3.637 0.063 0.088 28 553142 1887 1974 88 1.000 0.062 -0.472 3.385 0.058 0.179 29 553151 1886 1973 88 1.000 0.053 0.109 2.531 0.054 0.067 30 553152 1883 1976 94 1.000 0.061 0.090 3.235 0.065 0.094 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 82 1.000 0.067 -0.670 5.072 0.063 0.196 STANDARD DEVIATION 6 0.000 0.011 0.741 2.991 0.008 0.155 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 83 1.000 0.064 -0.637 4.284 0.060 0.182 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 6 0.000 0.014 0.963 1.978 0.009 0.173 MINIMUM VALUE 66 1.000 0.049 -2.923 2.531 0.052 -0.043 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 79 1.000 0.060 -1.054 3.391 0.058 0.087 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 85 1.000 0.074 -0.091 5.369 0.068 0.259 MAXIMUM VALUE 94 1.000 0.088 0.421 15.614 0.085 0.539 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 553011 -67 52 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 553012 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 553021 -67 56 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 553022 -67 56 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 553031 -67 54 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 553032 -67 56 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 553041 -67 53 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 553042 -67 55 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 553051 -67 55 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 553052 -67 56 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 553061 -67 55 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 553062 -67 55 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 553071 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 553072 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 553081 -67 59 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 553082 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 553091 -67 55 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 553092 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 553101 -67 56 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 553102 -67 55 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 553111 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 553112 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 553121 -67 52 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 553122 -67 54 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 553131 -67 54 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 553132 -67 57 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 27 553141 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 28 553142 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 29 553151 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 30 553152 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 553011 1899 1977 79 1.000 0.056 0.442 3.105 0.052 0.169 2 553012 1901 1975 75 1.000 0.073 0.270 4.358 0.074 0.033 3 553021 1893 1976 84 1.000 0.072 -2.795 15.490 0.071 -0.039 4 553022 1889 1973 85 0.999 0.062 -0.737 5.253 0.061 0.175 5 553031 1894 1974 81 1.000 0.061 0.119 4.121 0.061 0.196 6 553032 1892 1976 85 1.000 0.078 -0.560 3.846 0.085 0.005 7 553041 1900 1979 80 1.000 0.063 -0.279 4.093 0.066 0.079 8 553042 1896 1978 83 1.000 0.056 -0.588 5.000 0.060 0.052 9 553051 1894 1976 83 1.000 0.065 -1.939 12.582 0.059 -0.062 10 553052 1894 1978 85 1.000 0.056 -0.949 4.642 0.060 -0.097 11 553061 1894 1976 83 1.000 0.054 -0.062 3.174 0.060 -0.050 12 553062 1894 1976 83 1.000 0.066 -0.479 4.305 0.075 -0.116 13 553071 1900 1975 76 1.000 0.061 -0.472 4.553 0.057 0.105 14 553072 1901 1975 75 1.000 0.051 -0.426 3.659 0.057 0.019 15 553081 1891 1979 89 1.000 0.061 0.319 2.790 0.063 0.071 16 553082 1890 1979 90 1.000 0.065 -0.157 3.719 0.072 0.043 17 553091 1891 1973 83 1.000 0.062 -0.477 3.621 0.071 -0.038 18 553092 1899 1973 75 1.000 0.052 0.328 3.002 0.058 0.044 19 553101 1893 1977 85 1.000 0.067 -1.980 10.807 0.058 -0.019 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 553102 1893 1975 83 1.000 0.058 -0.590 3.588 0.057 0.253 21 553111 1899 1964 66 1.000 0.055 -0.930 4.766 0.052 0.102 22 553112 1896 1962 67 1.000 0.047 0.157 3.550 0.052 0.026 23 553121 1896 1974 79 1.000 0.068 -0.824 4.541 0.080 -0.236 24 553122 1894 1974 81 1.000 0.057 -0.476 3.339 0.063 -0.041 25 553131 1887 1968 82 1.000 0.050 -0.515 4.362 0.058 -0.081 26 553132 1883 1968 86 1.000 0.059 -0.610 3.460 0.068 -0.026 27 553141 1882 1974 93 1.000 0.061 -0.045 3.664 0.063 0.010 28 553142 1887 1974 88 1.000 0.060 -0.522 3.415 0.058 0.131 29 553151 1886 1973 88 1.000 0.051 0.222 2.961 0.054 -0.016 30 553152 1883 1976 94 1.000 0.058 0.011 3.023 0.065 0.024 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 82 1.000 0.060 -0.485 4.760 0.063 0.024 STANDARD DEVIATION 6 0.000 0.007 0.722 2.919 0.008 0.102 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 83 1.000 0.060 -0.476 3.782 0.061 0.021 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 6 0.000 0.009 0.621 1.138 0.010 0.118 MINIMUM VALUE 66 0.999 0.047 -2.795 2.790 0.052 -0.236 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 79 1.000 0.056 -0.610 3.415 0.058 -0.039 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 85 1.000 0.065 0.011 4.553 0.068 0.079 MAXIMUM VALUE 94 1.000 0.078 0.442 15.490 0.085 0.253 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 435 0.413 0.143 0.007 -0.347 2.906 -0.070 0.766 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.070 SERIES 553012 AND 553021 75 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.766 SERIES 553101 AND 553111 66 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 78.64 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. CORR 378. 435. 435. 435. 435. 325. 3. RBAR 0.601 0.573 0.469 0.562 0.502 0.306 0.129 SDEV 0.165 0.178 0.195 0.184 0.176 0.223 0.064 SERR 0.009 0.009 0.009 0.009 0.008 0.012 0.037 EPS 0.978 0.976 0.964 0.975 0.968 0.928 0.772 NSS 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.3 22.9 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1882 1979 98 1.000 0.038 0.235 2.561 0.044 -0.053 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.121 -0.090 0.133 33 65 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.19 0.45 1.01 1.07 1.52 3.86 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.93 0.09 0.00 0.89 0.97 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.053 0.063 -0.029 0.040 0.050 -0.171 0.003 -0.134 -0.053 -0.081 PACF -0.053 0.061 -0.023 0.033 0.057 -0.172 -0.017 -0.116 -0.081 -0.066 95% C.L. 0.202 0.203 0.203 0.204 0.204 0.204 0.210 0.210 0.214 0.214 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.069 0.046 -0.033 0.007 0.068 -0.207 -0.002 -0.147 -0.114 -0.055 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 -0.069 2 -0.066 0.042 3 -0.065 0.040 -0.027 4 -0.065 0.040 -0.027 0.001 5 -0.065 0.042 -0.030 0.006 0.071 6 -0.051 0.043 -0.036 0.014 0.058 -0.202 7 -0.057 0.045 -0.036 0.013 0.059 -0.203 -0.033 8 -0.062 0.018 -0.028 0.014 0.055 -0.197 -0.040 -0.134 9 -0.082 0.011 -0.058 0.023 0.057 -0.202 -0.038 -0.143 -0.155 10 -0.094 0.001 -0.061 0.008 0.061 -0.200 -0.042 -0.142 -0.161 -0.073 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 454.64 456.17 458.00 459.92 461.92 463.42 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 461.35 463.25 463.49 463.11 464.59 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 0 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 553011 0 0.029 2 553012 0 0.001 3 553021 0 0.002 4 553022 0 0.037 5 553031 0 0.043 6 553032 0 0.000 7 553041 0 0.006 8 553042 0 0.003 9 553051 0 0.006 10 553052 0 0.010 11 553061 0 0.003 12 553062 0 0.016 13 553071 0 0.013 14 553072 0 0.000 15 553081 0 0.005 16 553082 0 0.002 17 553091 0 0.001 18 553092 0 0.002 19 553101 0 0.000 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 553102 0 0.064 21 553111 0 0.011 22 553112 0 0.001 23 553121 0 0.056 24 553122 0 0.002 25 553131 0 0.008 26 553132 0 0.001 27 553141 0 0.000 28 553142 0 0.020 29 553151 0 0.000 30 553152 0 0.001 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 0 0.011 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.017 MEDIAN 0 0.003 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.012 MINIMUM VALUE 0 0.000 LOWER HINGE 0 0.001 UPPER HINGE 0 0.013 MAXIMUM VALUE 0 0.064 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 553011 1899 1977 79 1.000 0.056 0.442 3.105 0.052 0.169 2 553012 1901 1975 75 1.000 0.073 0.270 4.358 0.074 0.033 3 553021 1893 1976 84 1.000 0.072 -2.795 15.490 0.071 -0.039 4 553022 1889 1973 85 1.000 0.062 -0.737 5.253 0.061 0.175 5 553031 1894 1974 81 1.000 0.061 0.119 4.121 0.061 0.196 6 553032 1892 1976 85 1.000 0.078 -0.560 3.846 0.085 0.005 7 553041 1900 1979 80 1.000 0.063 -0.279 4.093 0.066 0.079 8 553042 1896 1978 83 1.000 0.056 -0.588 5.000 0.060 0.052 9 553051 1894 1976 83 1.000 0.065 -1.939 12.582 0.059 -0.062 10 553052 1894 1978 85 1.000 0.056 -0.949 4.642 0.060 -0.097 11 553061 1894 1976 83 1.000 0.054 -0.062 3.174 0.060 -0.050 12 553062 1894 1976 83 1.000 0.066 -0.479 4.305 0.075 -0.116 13 553071 1900 1975 76 1.000 0.061 -0.472 4.553 0.057 0.105 14 553072 1901 1975 75 1.000 0.051 -0.426 3.659 0.057 0.019 15 553081 1891 1979 89 1.000 0.061 0.319 2.790 0.063 0.071 16 553082 1890 1979 90 1.000 0.065 -0.157 3.719 0.072 0.043 17 553091 1891 1973 83 1.000 0.062 -0.477 3.621 0.071 -0.038 18 553092 1899 1973 75 1.000 0.052 0.328 3.002 0.058 0.044 19 553101 1893 1977 85 1.000 0.067 -1.980 10.807 0.058 -0.019 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 553102 1893 1975 83 1.000 0.058 -0.590 3.588 0.057 0.253 21 553111 1899 1964 66 1.000 0.055 -0.930 4.766 0.052 0.102 22 553112 1896 1962 67 1.000 0.047 0.157 3.550 0.052 0.026 23 553121 1896 1974 79 1.000 0.068 -0.824 4.541 0.080 -0.236 24 553122 1894 1974 81 1.000 0.057 -0.476 3.339 0.063 -0.041 25 553131 1887 1968 82 1.000 0.050 -0.515 4.362 0.058 -0.081 26 553132 1883 1968 86 1.000 0.059 -0.610 3.460 0.068 -0.026 27 553141 1882 1974 93 1.000 0.061 -0.045 3.664 0.063 0.010 28 553142 1887 1974 88 1.000 0.060 -0.522 3.415 0.058 0.131 29 553151 1886 1973 88 1.000 0.051 0.222 2.961 0.054 -0.016 30 553152 1883 1976 94 1.000 0.058 0.011 3.023 0.065 0.024 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 82 1.000 0.060 -0.485 4.760 0.063 0.024 STANDARD DEVIATION 6 0.000 0.007 0.722 2.919 0.008 0.102 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 83 1.000 0.060 -0.476 3.782 0.061 0.021 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 6 0.000 0.009 0.621 1.138 0.010 0.118 MINIMUM VALUE 66 1.000 0.047 -2.795 2.790 0.052 -0.236 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 79 1.000 0.056 -0.610 3.415 0.058 -0.039 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 85 1.000 0.065 0.011 4.553 0.068 0.079 MAXIMUM VALUE 94 1.000 0.078 0.442 15.490 0.085 0.253 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 435 0.413 0.143 0.007 -0.347 2.906 -0.070 0.766 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.070 SERIES 553012 AND 553021 75 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.766 SERIES 553101 AND 553111 66 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 78.64 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. CORR 378. 435. 435. 435. 435. 325. 3. RBAR 0.601 0.573 0.469 0.562 0.502 0.306 0.129 SDEV 0.165 0.178 0.195 0.184 0.176 0.223 0.064 SERR 0.009 0.009 0.009 0.009 0.008 0.012 0.037 EPS 0.978 0.976 0.964 0.975 0.968 0.928 0.772 NSS 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.3 22.9 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1882 1979 98 1.000 0.038 0.235 2.562 0.044 -0.053 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.120 -0.089 0.132 33 65 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.19 0.46 1.01 1.07 1.53 4.00 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.09 0.00 0.89 0.97 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.053 0.064 -0.029 0.040 0.050 -0.171 0.003 -0.134 -0.053 -0.081 PACF -0.053 0.061 -0.023 0.034 0.057 -0.172 -0.017 -0.116 -0.081 -0.066 95% C.L. 0.202 0.203 0.203 0.204 0.204 0.204 0.210 0.210 0.214 0.214 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1882 1979 98 1.000 0.038 0.235 2.562 0.044 -0.053 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.053 0.064 -0.029 0.040 0.050 -0.171 0.003 -0.134 -0.053 -0.081 PACF -0.053 0.061 -0.023 0.034 0.057 -0.172 -0.017 -0.116 -0.081 -0.066 95% C.L. 0.202 0.203 0.203 0.204 0.204 0.204 0.210 0.210 0.214 0.214 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.73 MINUTES