RUN: SWIT004 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWIT156E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWIT156E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 20 10 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 553 1 Lindenwald BE, Ta.gesund WIDTH_EARLY ABAL - 553 2 Switzerland silver fir, European fir 560 4702-724 1877 1979 - 553 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES --- NO GAPS IN DATA FOUND --- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 553161 1904 1979 76 1.858 0.888 0.211 1.943 0.250 0.794 2 553162 1907 1979 73 1.834 0.898 -0.002 2.301 0.271 0.812 3 553171 1902 1979 78 1.738 0.690 0.677 3.439 0.299 0.536 4 553172 1902 1979 78 1.496 0.735 1.120 5.420 0.243 0.710 5 553181 1897 1979 83 1.743 0.763 0.739 3.271 0.334 0.562 6 553182 1901 1979 79 1.760 0.806 0.693 3.223 0.365 0.495 7 553191 1903 1979 77 1.738 0.680 -0.114 2.977 0.225 0.721 8 553192 1905 1979 75 2.037 0.791 0.281 2.816 0.238 0.668 9 553201 1909 1979 71 2.091 0.822 0.822 3.760 0.226 0.703 10 553202 1911 1979 69 1.887 0.703 0.823 4.230 0.266 0.553 11 553211 1898 1979 82 2.014 0.874 0.162 2.489 0.209 0.816 12 553212 1892 1979 88 2.127 1.109 1.127 4.212 0.242 0.791 13 553221 1883 1979 97 1.114 0.782 1.065 3.990 0.243 0.858 14 553222 1888 1979 92 1.387 0.595 0.657 2.927 0.212 0.823 15 553231 1880 1979 100 1.221 0.836 2.329 9.017 0.279 0.729 16 553232 1877 1979 103 1.200 1.005 2.957 11.447 0.260 0.871 17 553241 1881 1979 99 1.653 0.677 1.146 5.023 0.223 0.661 18 553242 1883 1979 97 1.806 0.869 1.055 3.895 0.241 0.730 19 553251 1884 1979 96 1.363 0.542 0.929 3.937 0.201 0.760 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 553252 1886 1979 94 1.534 0.622 0.834 2.720 0.237 0.648 21 553261 1906 1979 74 2.125 0.530 0.491 3.480 0.220 0.464 22 553262 1913 1979 67 1.563 0.618 1.400 4.461 0.218 0.747 23 553271 1895 1979 85 1.727 0.593 1.580 6.542 0.198 0.606 24 553272 1905 1979 75 1.547 0.355 0.397 3.550 0.175 0.483 25 553281 1884 1979 96 1.604 0.673 0.506 3.199 0.247 0.671 26 553282 1894 1979 86 1.960 0.712 0.802 4.783 0.264 0.542 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 26 FROM 1877 TO 1979 103 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 84 1.697 0.737 0.873 4.194 0.246 0.683 STANDARD DEVIATION 10 0.286 0.159 0.669 2.072 0.041 0.121 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 82 1.738 0.724 0.812 3.655 0.242 0.706 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 21 0.353 0.214 0.630 1.484 0.044 0.228 MINIMUM VALUE 67 1.114 0.355 -0.114 1.943 0.175 0.464 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 75 1.534 0.622 0.491 2.977 0.220 0.562 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 96 1.887 0.836 1.120 4.461 0.264 0.791 MAXIMUM VALUE 103 2.127 1.109 2.957 11.447 0.365 0.871 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.352 0.247 0.014 -0.665 3.521 -0.463 0.890 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.463 SERIES 553162 AND 553252 73 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.890 SERIES 553231 AND 553232 100 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 75.66 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1900. 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. CORR 36. 91. 276. 325. 325. 325. 325. 325. RBAR 0.476 0.335 0.307 0.334 0.542 0.401 0.349 0.126 SDEV 0.311 0.338 0.314 0.290 0.245 0.267 0.277 0.410 SERR 0.052 0.035 0.019 0.016 0.014 0.015 0.015 0.023 EPS 0.934 0.919 0.920 0.929 0.968 0.946 0.933 0.790 NSS 15.5 22.6 25.8 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1877 1979 103 1.851 0.829 2.739 11.853 0.176 0.828 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.155 -0.041 0.704 25 78 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.25 0.36 1.00 1.10 1.47 3.18 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.05 0.00 0.87 0.93 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 82. 21. 67. 75. 96. 103. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.820 0.650 0.510 0.423 0.352 0.261 0.195 0.178 0.210 0.202 PACF 0.820 -0.070 -0.010 0.071 -0.005 -0.097 0.027 0.105 0.122 -0.082 95% C.L. 0.197 0.302 0.352 0.380 0.397 0.409 0.416 0.419 0.422 0.426 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.700 0.835 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 553161 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.03381299 3.15969467 2 553162 1 2.62876105 0.02680214 0.00000000 0.69586945 3 553171 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00964175 2.11879778 4 553172 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01532834 2.10123873 5 553181 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00871458 2.10926533 6 553182 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00724951 2.04972744 7 553191 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00190441 1.66403961 8 553192 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00901678 1.69416213 9 553201 1 2.52535081 0.04264912 0.00000000 1.31419992 10 553202 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01968506 2.57636833 11 553211 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.02624329 3.10324287 12 553212 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.02288084 3.14501572 13 553221 1 2.69161272 0.04577040 0.00000000 0.52802044 14 553222 1 1.91907084 0.03326469 0.00000000 0.79949969 15 553231 1 4.12937117 0.13226940 0.00000000 0.92940068 16 553232 1 5.05718803 0.11273980 0.00000000 0.78858930 17 553241 1 1.64338601 0.04558058 0.00000000 1.30058861 18 553242 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00429321 2.01634669 19 553251 1 1.72527850 0.10458013 0.00000000 1.19990885 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 553252 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00099194 1.48692524 21 553261 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00732277 2.39933372 22 553262 1 2.55890822 0.12074444 0.00000000 1.26503336 23 553271 1 2.66497159 0.18358625 0.00000000 1.57159567 24 553272 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00618634 1.78254771 25 553281 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00770368 1.97769082 26 553282 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01545073 2.63257170 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 553161 1904 1979 76 1.019 0.339 0.817 4.682 0.244 0.588 2 553162 1907 1979 73 1.002 0.498 2.074 10.270 0.268 0.709 3 553171 1902 1979 78 0.998 0.386 0.969 4.064 0.295 0.479 4 553172 1902 1979 78 0.991 0.478 2.766 13.323 0.240 0.679 5 553181 1897 1979 83 0.999 0.423 0.807 3.758 0.330 0.474 6 553182 1901 1979 79 0.999 0.460 1.054 4.777 0.361 0.458 7 553191 1903 1979 77 1.000 0.389 -0.153 2.889 0.222 0.713 8 553192 1905 1979 75 0.999 0.390 0.606 3.432 0.236 0.677 9 553201 1909 1979 71 1.000 0.269 0.439 3.032 0.222 0.422 10 553202 1911 1979 69 0.999 0.306 0.331 2.944 0.261 0.387 11 553211 1898 1979 82 0.985 0.299 0.245 2.275 0.205 0.660 12 553212 1892 1979 88 0.985 0.387 0.779 3.372 0.240 0.693 13 553221 1883 1979 97 0.998 0.600 2.885 13.252 0.235 0.697 14 553222 1888 1979 92 1.000 0.304 1.929 9.893 0.210 0.495 15 553231 1880 1979 100 1.000 0.439 1.699 8.148 0.271 0.570 16 553232 1877 1979 103 1.003 0.337 -0.240 3.423 0.257 0.524 17 553241 1881 1979 99 1.000 0.350 1.551 7.862 0.221 0.500 18 553242 1883 1979 97 0.999 0.492 1.338 4.671 0.238 0.728 19 553251 1884 1979 96 1.000 0.333 0.718 3.836 0.198 0.675 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 553252 1886 1979 94 1.000 0.407 0.884 2.910 0.235 0.650 21 553261 1906 1979 74 1.000 0.238 0.533 3.303 0.217 0.386 22 553262 1913 1979 67 1.000 0.232 0.405 3.363 0.213 0.316 23 553271 1895 1979 85 1.000 0.258 0.800 4.612 0.195 0.516 24 553272 1905 1979 75 1.000 0.212 0.545 4.017 0.173 0.393 25 553281 1884 1979 96 1.000 0.427 1.471 7.533 0.245 0.608 26 553282 1894 1979 86 0.999 0.310 0.903 5.447 0.261 0.367 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 84 0.999 0.368 1.006 5.426 0.242 0.552 STANDARD DEVIATION 10 0.006 0.094 0.780 3.173 0.041 0.128 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 82 1.000 0.368 0.812 4.040 0.237 0.547 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 21 0.001 0.123 0.938 4.169 0.044 0.219 MINIMUM VALUE 67 0.985 0.212 -0.240 2.275 0.173 0.316 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 75 0.999 0.304 0.533 3.363 0.217 0.458 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 96 1.000 0.427 1.471 7.533 0.261 0.677 MAXIMUM VALUE 103 1.019 0.600 2.885 13.323 0.361 0.728 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 553161 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 553162 -67 48 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 553171 -67 52 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 553172 -67 52 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 553181 -67 55 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 553182 -67 52 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 553191 -67 51 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 553192 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 553201 -67 47 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 553202 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 553211 -67 54 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 553212 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 553221 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 553222 -67 61 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 553231 -67 67 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 553232 -67 69 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 553241 -67 66 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 553242 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 553251 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 553252 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 553261 -67 49 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 553262 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 553271 -67 56 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 553272 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 553281 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 553282 -67 57 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 553161 1904 1979 76 0.993 0.268 0.186 3.758 0.243 0.366 2 553162 1907 1979 73 0.982 0.370 0.470 4.441 0.270 0.555 3 553171 1902 1979 78 0.993 0.326 0.972 3.943 0.293 0.336 4 553172 1902 1979 78 0.994 0.394 2.364 10.933 0.240 0.578 5 553181 1897 1979 83 0.990 0.389 0.929 4.776 0.331 0.356 6 553182 1901 1979 79 0.991 0.439 1.507 7.235 0.361 0.399 7 553191 1903 1979 77 0.990 0.333 -0.085 3.046 0.221 0.584 8 553192 1905 1979 75 0.993 0.338 0.324 3.437 0.237 0.567 9 553201 1909 1979 71 0.996 0.249 0.309 2.994 0.222 0.353 10 553202 1911 1979 69 0.994 0.277 0.402 3.165 0.259 0.286 11 553211 1898 1979 82 0.997 0.252 0.395 2.483 0.203 0.467 12 553212 1892 1979 88 0.995 0.289 0.406 4.117 0.241 0.506 13 553221 1883 1979 97 0.980 0.411 0.864 4.029 0.235 0.637 14 553222 1888 1979 92 0.996 0.249 0.603 3.850 0.210 0.408 15 553231 1880 1979 100 0.997 0.351 1.572 7.896 0.270 0.415 16 553232 1877 1979 103 0.989 0.266 -0.230 2.794 0.255 0.332 17 553241 1881 1979 99 0.998 0.325 1.505 7.648 0.221 0.416 18 553242 1883 1979 97 0.988 0.353 1.204 4.730 0.239 0.530 19 553251 1884 1979 96 0.993 0.293 0.702 3.754 0.198 0.575 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 553252 1886 1979 94 0.991 0.298 0.884 4.647 0.234 0.421 21 553261 1906 1979 74 0.998 0.208 0.361 3.033 0.218 0.201 22 553262 1913 1979 67 0.998 0.213 0.301 3.087 0.212 0.204 23 553271 1895 1979 85 0.998 0.200 0.474 3.871 0.194 0.268 24 553272 1905 1979 75 0.999 0.193 0.490 3.822 0.171 0.330 25 553281 1884 1979 96 0.977 0.306 1.071 5.817 0.243 0.415 26 553282 1894 1979 86 0.996 0.285 0.759 4.432 0.261 0.269 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 84 0.993 0.303 0.721 4.528 0.242 0.414 STANDARD DEVIATION 10 0.006 0.066 0.571 1.936 0.041 0.123 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 82 0.994 0.296 0.547 3.907 0.238 0.411 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 21 0.007 0.099 0.611 1.564 0.042 0.198 MINIMUM VALUE 67 0.977 0.193 -0.230 2.483 0.171 0.201 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 75 0.990 0.252 0.361 3.165 0.218 0.332 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 96 0.997 0.351 0.972 4.730 0.259 0.530 MAXIMUM VALUE 103 0.999 0.439 2.364 10.933 0.361 0.637 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.281 0.191 0.011 -0.121 3.303 -0.303 0.849 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.303 SERIES 553162 AND 553232 73 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.849 SERIES 553181 AND 553182 79 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 75.66 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1900. 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. CORR 36. 91. 276. 325. 325. 325. 325. 325. RBAR 0.374 0.365 0.336 0.384 0.448 0.455 0.298 0.155 SDEV 0.245 0.261 0.290 0.244 0.267 0.243 0.277 0.337 SERR 0.041 0.027 0.017 0.014 0.015 0.014 0.015 0.019 EPS 0.902 0.929 0.929 0.942 0.955 0.956 0.917 0.827 NSS 15.5 22.6 25.8 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1877 1979 103 0.988 0.170 0.451 3.764 0.173 0.161 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.209 0.111 0.115 38 65 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.20 0.38 1.00 1.10 1.48 10.70 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.09 0.00 0.86 0.95 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.159 0.127 -0.052 -0.166 -0.085 -0.042 -0.061 -0.085 0.037 -0.087 PACF 0.159 0.104 -0.089 -0.166 -0.023 0.014 -0.066 -0.106 0.064 -0.093 95% C.L. 0.197 0.202 0.205 0.206 0.211 0.212 0.212 0.213 0.214 0.215 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.037 0.161 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.136 0.166 0.030 -0.121 -0.078 -0.070 -0.087 -0.153 0.031 -0.119 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.136 2 0.115 0.150 3 0.117 0.152 -0.010 4 0.115 0.175 0.008 -0.155 5 0.107 0.175 0.018 -0.148 -0.053 6 0.106 0.174 0.018 -0.147 -0.052 -0.010 7 0.106 0.171 0.010 -0.146 -0.043 -0.004 -0.053 8 0.098 0.171 0.004 -0.168 -0.042 0.022 -0.037 -0.150 9 0.109 0.173 0.002 -0.165 -0.029 0.021 -0.050 -0.158 0.075 10 0.117 0.158 -0.003 -0.162 -0.032 0.005 -0.049 -0.141 0.086 -0.099 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 758.99 759.08 758.72 760.71 760.22 761.93 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 763.92 765.63 765.28 766.69 767.68 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.115 0.150 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 4.06 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 104.23 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.115 0.164 0.036 0.029 0.009 0.005 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.0002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 553161 2 0.163 0.316 0.141 2 553162 2 0.336 0.483 0.135 3 553171 2 0.134 0.291 0.144 4 553172 2 0.361 0.641 -0.079 5 553181 2 0.185 0.282 0.216 6 553182 2 0.185 0.368 0.078 7 553191 2 0.396 0.618 -0.001 8 553192 2 0.378 0.509 0.139 9 553201 2 0.188 0.266 0.259 10 553202 2 0.113 0.251 0.126 11 553211 2 0.274 0.473 0.003 12 553212 2 0.302 0.505 0.012 13 553221 2 0.455 0.568 0.145 14 553222 2 0.196 0.446 -0.031 15 553231 2 0.174 0.405 0.026 16 553232 2 0.133 0.284 0.152 17 553241 2 0.196 0.392 0.057 18 553242 2 0.354 0.475 0.131 19 553251 2 0.408 0.434 0.247 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 553252 2 0.230 0.320 0.245 21 553261 2 0.061 0.174 0.132 22 553262 2 0.079 0.177 0.133 23 553271 2 0.080 0.262 0.027 24 553272 2 0.127 0.329 0.041 25 553281 2 0.244 0.303 0.280 26 553282 2 0.106 0.236 0.133 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.225 0.377 0.111 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.115 0.129 0.094 MEDIAN 2 0.192 0.349 0.132 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.203 0.194 0.118 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.061 0.174 -0.079 LOWER HINGE 2 0.133 0.282 0.027 UPPER HINGE 2 0.336 0.475 0.145 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.455 0.641 0.280 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 553161 1904 1979 76 1.000 0.247 0.245 4.447 0.279 0.017 2 553162 1907 1979 73 1.000 0.304 0.164 3.280 0.313 0.017 3 553171 1902 1979 78 1.000 0.303 0.736 3.487 0.323 -0.006 4 553172 1902 1979 78 1.000 0.315 1.563 6.913 0.298 -0.002 5 553181 1897 1979 83 1.000 0.354 0.972 5.918 0.385 -0.030 6 553182 1901 1979 79 1.000 0.401 1.525 7.236 0.416 -0.013 7 553191 1903 1979 77 1.000 0.261 0.243 4.239 0.272 0.026 8 553192 1905 1979 75 1.000 0.267 0.609 4.791 0.286 0.013 9 553201 1909 1979 71 1.000 0.224 0.174 3.393 0.250 0.016 10 553202 1911 1979 69 1.000 0.264 0.310 3.550 0.288 0.016 11 553211 1898 1979 82 1.000 0.221 0.690 3.399 0.245 0.008 12 553212 1892 1979 88 1.000 0.248 0.155 4.036 0.290 0.000 13 553221 1883 1979 97 1.000 0.303 1.295 5.381 0.284 0.034 14 553222 1888 1979 92 1.000 0.225 0.175 3.609 0.255 0.021 15 553231 1880 1979 100 1.000 0.319 1.585 7.835 0.327 0.000 16 553232 1877 1979 103 1.000 0.247 0.191 2.464 0.281 -0.001 17 553241 1881 1979 99 1.000 0.295 1.250 7.748 0.271 0.009 18 553242 1883 1979 97 1.000 0.292 0.747 4.313 0.287 0.036 19 553251 1884 1979 96 1.000 0.232 1.079 5.557 0.228 0.054 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 553252 1886 1979 94 1.000 0.262 0.993 5.099 0.273 0.013 21 553261 1906 1979 74 1.000 0.202 0.152 2.854 0.237 0.009 22 553262 1913 1979 67 1.000 0.206 0.242 3.219 0.225 0.019 23 553271 1895 1979 85 1.000 0.192 0.422 4.289 0.223 -0.003 24 553272 1905 1979 75 1.000 0.180 0.584 4.105 0.194 -0.017 25 553281 1884 1979 96 1.000 0.266 1.153 6.158 0.264 0.016 26 553282 1894 1979 86 1.000 0.272 0.623 4.681 0.284 0.017 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 84 1.000 0.265 0.688 4.692 0.280 0.010 STANDARD DEVIATION 10 0.000 0.051 0.488 1.507 0.048 0.017 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 82 1.000 0.263 0.616 4.301 0.280 0.013 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 21 0.000 0.078 0.837 2.070 0.040 0.018 MINIMUM VALUE 67 1.000 0.180 0.152 2.464 0.194 -0.030 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 75 1.000 0.225 0.242 3.487 0.250 -0.001 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 96 1.000 0.303 1.079 5.557 0.290 0.017 MAXIMUM VALUE 103 1.000 0.401 1.585 7.835 0.416 0.054 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.381 0.133 0.007 0.029 3.837 -0.089 0.846 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.089 SERIES 553162 AND 553211 73 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.846 SERIES 553181 AND 553182 79 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 75.66 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1900. 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. CORR 36. 91. 276. 325. 325. 325. 325. 325. RBAR 0.397 0.443 0.444 0.471 0.493 0.527 0.429 0.229 SDEV 0.199 0.199 0.194 0.176 0.191 0.198 0.199 0.265 SERR 0.033 0.021 0.012 0.010 0.011 0.011 0.011 0.015 EPS 0.911 0.947 0.954 0.959 0.962 0.967 0.951 0.885 NSS 15.5 22.6 25.8 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1877 1979 103 0.997 0.172 0.174 4.095 0.206 -0.174 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.302 0.123 0.068 41 62 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.15 0.35 1.00 1.06 1.41 2.52 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.06 0.00 0.87 0.93 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.173 0.008 -0.043 -0.165 -0.007 0.013 -0.024 -0.051 0.101 -0.137 PACF -0.173 -0.023 -0.047 -0.187 -0.076 -0.012 -0.049 -0.109 0.060 -0.125 95% C.L. 0.197 0.203 0.203 0.203 0.208 0.208 0.208 0.209 0.209 0.211 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.031 -0.174 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.000 -0.014 -0.079 -0.184 -0.037 0.004 -0.029 -0.044 0.075 -0.105 PACF 0.000 -0.014 -0.079 -0.185 -0.044 -0.010 -0.063 -0.091 0.057 -0.122 95% C.L. 0.197 0.197 0.197 0.198 0.205 0.205 0.205 0.205 0.206 0.207 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.007 0.000 -0.015 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1877 1979 103 0.996 0.171 0.418 3.741 0.177 0.108 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.107 0.105 -0.079 -0.175 -0.069 -0.037 -0.034 -0.057 0.069 -0.085 PACF 0.107 0.094 -0.101 -0.172 -0.017 0.003 -0.052 -0.088 0.079 -0.100 95% C.L. 0.197 0.199 0.201 0.203 0.208 0.209 0.210 0.210 0.210 0.211 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.23 MINUTES