RUN: SWIT004 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWIT158E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWIT158E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 20 10 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 554 1 Illiswil BE, Tanne abst. WIDTH_EARLY ABAL - 554 2 Switzerland silver fir, European fir 597 4659-721 1887 1979 - 554 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 3 554021 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1963 1963 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 554022 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1963 1964 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 554041 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1956 1956 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 554062 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 2 GAPS / 1963 1964 / 1968 1968 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 554091 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1964 1964 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 554011 1887 1978 92 1.053 0.770 1.037 3.551 0.310 0.850 2 554012 1896 1978 83 0.809 0.413 0.237 2.502 0.292 0.752 3 554021 1894 1973 80 1.322 0.858 0.638 2.867 0.295 0.820 4 554022 1890 1975 86 1.393 0.883 0.473 2.604 0.317 0.838 5 554031 1907 1979 73 1.002 0.627 1.005 3.568 0.327 0.763 6 554032 1899 1979 81 0.934 0.511 0.515 2.599 0.270 0.729 7 554041 1905 1974 70 1.141 0.809 0.482 2.137 0.275 0.832 8 554042 1898 1976 79 1.131 0.967 1.305 5.603 0.344 0.713 9 554051 1898 1979 82 1.297 0.650 0.367 3.162 0.317 0.712 10 554052 1897 1979 83 1.104 0.652 0.859 3.474 0.323 0.745 11 554061 1896 1979 84 1.331 1.103 0.983 2.611 0.298 0.916 12 554062 1904 1979 76 1.229 1.131 1.332 3.509 0.316 0.948 13 554071 1904 1979 76 1.329 0.884 0.710 2.597 0.321 0.843 14 554072 1912 1979 68 1.964 0.906 0.600 3.252 0.315 0.693 15 554081 1887 1979 93 1.107 0.659 0.451 2.530 0.282 0.868 16 554082 1897 1979 83 1.269 0.603 0.607 2.992 0.281 0.724 17 554091 1903 1968 66 2.048 1.108 -0.191 2.300 0.309 0.715 18 554092 1908 1969 62 1.818 1.322 0.427 2.112 0.334 0.859 19 554101 1914 1973 60 1.832 0.979 0.125 3.020 0.273 0.730 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 554102 1909 1974 66 1.974 1.159 0.155 2.709 0.290 0.839 21 554111 1892 1973 82 2.252 1.344 0.364 2.829 0.275 0.856 22 554112 1899 1974 76 2.023 1.073 -0.052 1.855 0.256 0.861 23 554121 1898 1969 72 1.388 0.590 -0.259 2.645 0.331 0.641 24 554122 1903 1970 68 1.397 0.675 0.208 3.004 0.293 0.750 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 24 FROM 1887 TO 1979 93 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 76 1.423 0.861 0.516 2.918 0.302 0.792 STANDARD DEVIATION 8 0.404 0.255 0.424 0.737 0.023 0.078 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 77 1.325 0.870 0.477 2.769 0.303 0.791 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 14 0.706 0.437 0.562 0.643 0.037 0.127 MINIMUM VALUE 60 0.809 0.413 -0.259 1.855 0.256 0.641 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 68 1.119 0.651 0.223 2.564 0.282 0.727 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 83 1.825 1.088 0.784 3.207 0.319 0.853 MAXIMUM VALUE 93 2.252 1.344 1.332 5.603 0.344 0.948 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.613 0.192 0.012 -0.555 2.630 0.033 0.958 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.033 SERIES 554062 AND 554121 66 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.958 SERIES 554061 AND 554062 76 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 75.72 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1897. 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. CORR 1. 91. 231. 276. 276. 276. 253. 45. RBAR 0.110 0.258 0.358 0.307 0.632 0.279 0.498 0.373 SDEV 0.000 0.357 0.426 0.313 0.221 0.370 0.335 0.297 SERR 0.000 0.037 0.028 0.019 0.013 0.022 0.021 0.044 EPS 0.535 0.877 0.930 0.914 0.976 0.903 0.960 0.922 NSS 9.3 20.5 23.7 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 19.9 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1887 1979 93 1.378 0.726 -0.126 2.019 0.238 0.860 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.751 0.309 0.170 42 51 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.57 2.17 1.01 1.22 3.39 14.98 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.09 0.73 0.87 0.96 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 78. 14. 60. 69. 83. 93. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.851 0.857 0.807 0.773 0.732 0.692 0.637 0.608 0.559 0.521 PACF 0.851 0.481 0.093 -0.015 -0.039 -0.042 -0.100 0.014 -0.021 -0.024 95% C.L. 0.207 0.324 0.410 0.474 0.525 0.567 0.603 0.631 0.656 0.676 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.824 0.311 0.463 0.173 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 554011 -67 61 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 554012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01367071 1.38332653 3 554021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.03098909 2.56180191 4 554022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.03049521 2.69200945 5 554031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01676910 1.62264836 6 554032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01498374 1.54853082 7 554041 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 554042 -67 52 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 554051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01075064 1.74322498 10 554052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01936002 1.91709673 11 554061 -67 56 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 554062 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 554071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.02778196 2.39815784 14 554072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.02082013 2.68197107 15 554081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01887351 1.99382889 16 554082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01617459 1.94824862 17 554091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.04621802 3.56859756 18 554092 5 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000 1.81822598 19 554101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.03981106 3.04590392 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 554102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.05107358 3.68460131 21 554111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.04020668 3.92089438 22 554112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.04034286 3.57609463 23 554121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00874783 1.70679581 24 554122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01771997 2.00839782 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 554011 1887 1978 92 1.017 0.396 1.128 6.396 0.311 0.490 2 554012 1896 1978 83 0.988 0.355 0.976 4.940 0.285 0.499 3 554021 1894 1973 80 1.005 0.363 0.917 3.973 0.309 0.441 4 554022 1890 1975 86 1.014 0.511 4.505 31.450 0.342 0.253 5 554031 1907 1979 73 0.996 0.631 3.099 13.894 0.323 0.721 6 554032 1899 1979 81 0.983 0.423 1.310 4.405 0.266 0.526 7 554041 1905 1974 70 1.016 0.318 0.395 3.587 0.278 0.319 8 554042 1898 1976 79 1.027 0.420 1.879 8.039 0.335 0.305 9 554051 1898 1979 82 0.991 0.497 1.034 4.895 0.312 0.691 10 554052 1897 1979 83 1.010 0.505 2.387 11.269 0.317 0.530 11 554061 1896 1979 84 0.995 0.367 0.771 3.789 0.293 0.518 12 554062 1904 1979 76 1.002 0.394 1.401 6.916 0.327 0.259 13 554071 1904 1979 76 1.005 0.493 0.625 3.048 0.315 0.718 14 554072 1912 1979 68 0.995 0.420 0.833 3.844 0.310 0.609 15 554081 1887 1979 93 0.974 0.358 0.550 2.920 0.280 0.562 16 554082 1897 1979 83 0.994 0.365 0.316 2.670 0.278 0.569 17 554091 1903 1968 66 0.950 0.420 0.244 2.935 0.314 0.637 18 554092 1908 1969 62 1.000 0.727 0.427 2.112 0.328 0.846 19 554101 1914 1973 60 0.964 0.402 0.355 2.441 0.268 0.651 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 554102 1909 1974 66 0.955 0.359 0.507 3.669 0.282 0.571 21 554111 1892 1973 82 0.955 0.421 0.528 2.432 0.268 0.771 22 554112 1899 1974 76 0.971 0.309 0.239 2.868 0.250 0.621 23 554121 1898 1969 72 0.997 0.433 0.060 2.763 0.326 0.642 24 554122 1903 1970 68 0.990 0.449 0.257 2.695 0.287 0.685 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 77 0.991 0.431 1.031 5.748 0.300 0.560 STANDARD DEVIATION 8 0.021 0.095 1.036 6.191 0.025 0.158 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 77 0.995 0.420 0.698 3.729 0.310 0.570 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 14 0.027 0.107 0.844 2.853 0.041 0.174 MINIMUM VALUE 60 0.950 0.309 0.060 2.112 0.250 0.253 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 69 0.978 0.364 0.375 2.816 0.279 0.494 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 83 1.005 0.471 1.219 5.668 0.320 0.668 MAXIMUM VALUE 93 1.027 0.727 4.505 31.450 0.342 0.846 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 554011 -67 61 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 554012 -67 55 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 554021 -67 53 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 554022 -67 57 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 554031 -67 48 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 554032 -67 54 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 554041 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 554042 -67 52 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 554051 -67 54 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 554052 -67 55 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 554061 -67 56 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 554062 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 554071 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 554072 -67 45 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 554081 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 554082 -67 55 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 554091 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 554092 5 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000 1.00001299 19 554101 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 554102 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 554111 -67 54 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 554112 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 554121 -67 48 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 554122 -67 45 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 554011 1887 1978 92 0.991 0.326 -0.019 3.429 0.310 0.334 2 554012 1896 1978 83 0.995 0.335 0.944 4.795 0.284 0.437 3 554021 1894 1973 80 0.994 0.320 0.389 3.144 0.308 0.340 4 554022 1890 1975 86 0.993 0.412 2.468 15.276 0.341 0.273 5 554031 1907 1979 73 0.986 0.526 2.274 9.907 0.322 0.675 6 554032 1899 1979 81 0.992 0.365 1.119 3.686 0.266 0.424 7 554041 1905 1974 70 0.997 0.278 -0.138 3.581 0.277 0.192 8 554042 1898 1976 79 0.994 0.334 1.050 4.949 0.335 0.131 9 554051 1898 1979 82 0.994 0.406 0.997 5.078 0.309 0.522 10 554052 1897 1979 83 0.987 0.423 1.892 8.571 0.316 0.426 11 554061 1896 1979 84 0.991 0.333 0.758 4.161 0.292 0.416 12 554062 1904 1979 76 0.994 0.366 1.236 6.597 0.326 0.196 13 554071 1904 1979 76 0.986 0.439 0.366 2.693 0.314 0.631 14 554072 1912 1979 68 0.993 0.388 0.877 3.721 0.309 0.517 15 554081 1887 1979 93 0.993 0.314 0.831 4.695 0.278 0.345 16 554082 1897 1979 83 0.991 0.331 0.371 3.147 0.276 0.477 17 554091 1903 1968 66 0.986 0.313 0.408 4.064 0.309 0.272 18 554092 1908 1969 62 1.000 0.727 0.427 2.112 0.328 0.846 19 554101 1914 1973 60 0.996 0.297 0.815 3.885 0.266 0.322 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 554102 1909 1974 66 0.995 0.296 0.534 3.959 0.279 0.306 21 554111 1892 1973 82 0.992 0.291 0.361 3.391 0.265 0.379 22 554112 1899 1974 76 0.994 0.255 0.072 4.389 0.249 0.386 23 554121 1898 1969 72 0.975 0.363 0.146 2.613 0.324 0.506 24 554122 1903 1970 68 0.972 0.361 0.330 2.667 0.279 0.558 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 77 0.991 0.367 0.771 4.771 0.299 0.413 STANDARD DEVIATION 8 0.006 0.097 0.672 2.876 0.026 0.163 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 77 0.993 0.334 0.646 3.922 0.309 0.401 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 14 0.005 0.084 0.660 1.603 0.042 0.198 MINIMUM VALUE 60 0.972 0.255 -0.138 2.112 0.249 0.131 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 69 0.989 0.313 0.364 3.269 0.278 0.314 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 83 0.994 0.397 1.024 4.872 0.319 0.512 MAXIMUM VALUE 93 1.000 0.727 2.468 15.276 0.341 0.846 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.300 0.183 0.011 -0.023 3.241 -0.193 0.873 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.193 SERIES 554031 AND 554072 68 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.873 SERIES 554121 AND 554122 67 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 75.72 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1897. 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. CORR 1. 91. 231. 276. 276. 276. 253. 45. RBAR 0.381 0.317 0.333 0.402 0.465 0.358 0.325 0.217 SDEV 0.000 0.331 0.352 0.268 0.221 0.293 0.299 0.330 SERR 0.000 0.035 0.023 0.016 0.013 0.018 0.019 0.049 EPS 0.851 0.905 0.922 0.942 0.954 0.930 0.920 0.846 NSS 9.3 20.5 23.7 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 19.9 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1887 1979 93 0.970 0.194 -0.017 3.895 0.217 0.189 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.327 0.174 0.101 47 46 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.33 0.46 1.00 1.12 1.58 5.43 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.11 0.75 0.89 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.187 0.210 -0.045 0.019 -0.011 0.011 -0.108 -0.166 -0.289 -0.311 PACF 0.187 0.182 -0.119 0.008 0.020 -0.002 -0.119 -0.143 -0.215 -0.230 95% C.L. 0.207 0.214 0.223 0.224 0.224 0.224 0.224 0.226 0.231 0.246 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.081 0.152 0.184 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.178 0.292 -0.006 0.082 -0.008 -0.004 -0.087 -0.176 -0.251 -0.286 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.178 2 0.131 0.268 3 0.158 0.282 -0.102 4 0.160 0.276 -0.106 0.021 5 0.160 0.277 -0.108 0.020 0.009 6 0.160 0.278 -0.112 0.030 0.015 -0.037 7 0.157 0.279 -0.110 0.021 0.038 -0.024 -0.082 8 0.144 0.275 -0.104 0.024 0.020 0.021 -0.056 -0.161 9 0.114 0.264 -0.100 0.028 0.025 0.002 -0.006 -0.135 -0.185 10 0.081 0.241 -0.101 0.028 0.029 0.007 -0.023 -0.088 -0.165 -0.177 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 692.87 691.87 686.91 687.93 689.89 691.89 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 693.76 695.13 694.67 693.44 692.47 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.131 0.268 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 10.16 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 111.30 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.131 0.285 0.072 0.086 0.031 0.027 0.012 0.009 0.004 0.0029 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 554011 2 0.203 0.252 0.255 2 554012 2 0.279 0.437 0.009 3 554021 2 0.173 0.272 0.229 4 554022 2 0.129 0.353 -0.039 5 554031 2 0.503 0.866 -0.278 6 554032 2 0.213 0.345 0.188 7 554041 2 0.216 0.178 0.083 8 554042 2 0.053 0.130 0.084 9 554051 2 0.436 0.346 0.358 10 554052 2 0.288 0.297 0.320 11 554061 2 0.212 0.334 0.204 12 554062 2 0.143 0.134 0.328 13 554071 2 0.472 0.433 0.314 14 554072 2 0.305 0.455 0.133 15 554081 2 0.160 0.280 0.195 16 554082 2 0.267 0.449 0.087 17 554091 2 0.075 0.275 -0.003 18 554092 2 0.823 0.557 0.366 19 554101 2 0.198 0.272 0.217 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 554102 2 0.099 0.297 0.046 21 554111 2 0.162 0.343 0.103 22 554112 2 0.227 0.270 0.302 23 554121 2 0.327 0.378 0.269 24 554122 2 0.347 0.498 0.128 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.263 0.352 0.162 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.167 0.153 0.152 MEDIAN 2 0.215 0.338 0.192 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.155 0.163 0.202 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.053 0.130 -0.278 LOWER HINGE 2 0.161 0.272 0.083 UPPER HINGE 2 0.316 0.435 0.285 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.823 0.866 0.366 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 554011 1887 1978 92 1.000 0.296 -0.297 3.967 0.349 0.057 2 554012 1896 1978 83 1.000 0.301 0.555 4.238 0.338 0.007 3 554021 1894 1973 80 1.000 0.291 0.186 3.472 0.335 0.027 4 554022 1890 1975 86 1.000 0.387 2.533 16.306 0.382 0.075 5 554031 1907 1979 73 1.000 0.371 1.575 7.015 0.419 -0.018 6 554032 1899 1979 81 1.000 0.325 1.421 4.959 0.322 -0.012 7 554041 1905 1974 70 1.000 0.272 -0.109 3.627 0.290 0.037 8 554042 1898 1976 79 1.000 0.329 1.098 4.891 0.354 -0.021 9 554051 1898 1979 82 1.000 0.319 1.083 4.924 0.315 0.099 10 554052 1897 1979 83 1.000 0.360 1.618 8.486 0.358 0.043 11 554061 1896 1979 84 1.000 0.296 0.425 4.227 0.334 -0.006 12 554062 1904 1979 76 1.000 0.339 1.027 7.601 0.328 -0.005 13 554071 1904 1979 76 1.000 0.323 0.605 3.288 0.325 0.048 14 554072 1912 1979 68 1.000 0.326 0.540 4.076 0.363 0.020 15 554081 1887 1979 93 1.000 0.289 0.794 5.323 0.311 0.021 16 554082 1897 1979 83 1.000 0.286 -0.108 3.468 0.333 0.011 17 554091 1903 1968 66 1.000 0.300 0.530 4.310 0.347 -0.002 18 554092 1908 1969 62 1.000 0.317 0.735 4.357 0.354 -0.140 19 554101 1914 1973 60 1.000 0.269 0.534 3.690 0.297 0.023 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 554102 1909 1974 66 1.000 0.281 0.411 4.387 0.319 0.000 21 554111 1892 1973 82 1.000 0.268 0.039 3.648 0.310 -0.013 22 554112 1899 1974 76 1.000 0.224 0.070 3.225 0.272 -0.002 23 554121 1898 1969 72 1.000 0.299 -0.018 2.964 0.352 0.038 24 554122 1903 1970 68 1.000 0.294 -0.245 3.451 0.319 0.028 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 77 1.000 0.307 0.625 4.996 0.334 0.013 STANDARD DEVIATION 8 0.000 0.036 0.687 2.782 0.031 0.044 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 77 1.000 0.300 0.537 4.232 0.334 0.015 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 14 0.000 0.038 1.001 1.392 0.036 0.043 MINIMUM VALUE 60 1.000 0.224 -0.297 2.964 0.272 -0.140 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 69 1.000 0.287 0.055 3.550 0.317 -0.006 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 83 1.000 0.326 1.055 4.941 0.353 0.038 MAXIMUM VALUE 93 1.000 0.387 2.533 16.306 0.419 0.099 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.392 0.132 0.008 0.282 3.229 0.100 0.848 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.100 SERIES 554041 AND 554051 70 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.848 SERIES 554101 AND 554102 60 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 75.72 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1897. 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. CORR 1. 91. 231. 276. 276. 276. 253. 45. RBAR 0.343 0.390 0.413 0.538 0.537 0.464 0.388 0.277 SDEV 0.000 0.189 0.215 0.141 0.133 0.206 0.233 0.203 SERR 0.000 0.020 0.014 0.008 0.008 0.012 0.015 0.030 EPS 0.829 0.929 0.943 0.965 0.965 0.954 0.938 0.884 NSS 9.3 20.5 23.7 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 19.9 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1887 1979 93 0.986 0.185 -0.197 4.086 0.242 -0.177 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.249 0.105 0.112 36 57 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.24 0.69 1.01 1.10 1.80 5.21 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.93 0.08 0.70 0.89 0.97 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.176 0.044 -0.142 0.041 -0.005 0.054 -0.048 -0.002 -0.151 -0.194 PACF -0.176 0.014 -0.136 -0.007 0.006 0.037 -0.030 -0.016 -0.150 -0.276 95% C.L. 0.207 0.214 0.214 0.218 0.218 0.218 0.219 0.219 0.219 0.224 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.031 -0.176 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.002 -0.023 -0.132 0.015 0.014 0.047 -0.040 -0.034 -0.195 -0.227 PACF 0.002 -0.023 -0.132 0.015 0.008 0.031 -0.036 -0.030 -0.191 -0.255 95% C.L. 0.207 0.207 0.208 0.211 0.211 0.211 0.212 0.212 0.212 0.220 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.019 0.002 -0.024 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1887 1979 93 0.985 0.188 -0.071 4.082 0.212 0.129 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.128 0.248 -0.061 0.072 -0.023 0.014 -0.117 -0.138 -0.268 -0.303 PACF 0.128 0.235 -0.125 0.037 0.010 -0.020 -0.111 -0.126 -0.205 -0.251 95% C.L. 0.207 0.211 0.223 0.224 0.225 0.225 0.225 0.227 0.231 0.244 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.086 0.098 0.237 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 1.37 MINUTES