RUN: SWIT004 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWIT158L.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWIT158L.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 20 10 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 554 1 Illiswil BE, Tanne abst. WIDTH_LATE ABAL - 554 2 Switzerland silver fir, European fir 597 4659-721 1887 1979 - 554 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 3 554021 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1963 1963 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 554022 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1963 1964 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 554041 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1956 1956 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 554062 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 2 GAPS / 1963 1964 / 1968 1968 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 554091 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1964 1964 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 554011 1887 1978 92 0.371 0.211 0.335 3.128 0.394 0.747 2 554012 1896 1978 83 0.488 0.301 0.713 3.368 0.395 0.753 3 554021 1894 1973 80 0.513 0.248 0.091 2.990 0.385 0.639 4 554022 1890 1975 86 0.546 0.267 -0.043 2.814 0.348 0.547 5 554031 1907 1979 73 0.843 0.604 3.019 14.007 0.291 0.777 6 554032 1899 1979 81 0.699 0.337 0.746 3.560 0.272 0.781 7 554041 1905 1974 70 0.524 0.321 0.344 2.398 0.535 0.331 8 554042 1898 1976 79 0.409 0.248 1.139 5.153 0.448 0.618 9 554051 1898 1979 82 0.658 0.444 2.442 10.103 0.416 0.701 10 554052 1897 1979 83 0.606 0.352 0.809 3.801 0.467 0.445 11 554061 1896 1979 84 0.366 0.193 1.022 4.015 0.338 0.717 12 554062 1904 1979 76 0.343 0.339 3.445 16.425 0.362 0.768 13 554071 1904 1979 76 0.542 0.320 1.247 4.214 0.406 0.665 14 554072 1912 1979 68 0.885 0.493 1.206 3.993 0.379 0.632 15 554081 1887 1979 93 0.511 0.249 1.269 7.710 0.346 0.654 16 554082 1897 1979 83 0.753 0.427 1.181 5.011 0.370 0.517 17 554091 1903 1968 66 0.583 0.273 0.001 3.381 0.414 0.419 18 554092 1908 1969 62 0.552 0.361 0.656 2.634 0.421 0.814 19 554101 1914 1973 60 0.502 0.234 0.112 2.460 0.440 0.440 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 554102 1909 1974 66 0.448 0.235 0.364 2.903 0.454 0.491 21 554111 1892 1973 82 0.646 0.346 0.508 2.942 0.368 0.626 22 554112 1899 1974 76 0.651 0.269 -0.072 3.087 0.374 0.472 23 554121 1898 1969 72 0.557 0.234 -0.044 2.535 0.323 0.550 24 554122 1903 1970 68 0.571 0.242 0.143 2.983 0.317 0.566 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 24 FROM 1887 TO 1979 93 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 76 0.565 0.314 0.860 4.817 0.386 0.611 STANDARD DEVIATION 8 0.138 0.098 0.942 3.667 0.059 0.134 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 77 0.549 0.287 0.684 3.374 0.382 0.629 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 14 0.154 0.104 1.066 1.689 0.072 0.228 MINIMUM VALUE 60 0.343 0.193 -0.072 2.398 0.272 0.331 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 68 0.495 0.245 0.127 2.923 0.347 0.504 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 83 0.648 0.349 1.193 4.612 0.419 0.732 MAXIMUM VALUE 93 0.885 0.604 3.445 16.425 0.535 0.814 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.298 0.263 0.016 -0.111 2.202 -0.361 0.882 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.361 SERIES 554031 AND 554052 73 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.882 SERIES 554121 AND 554122 67 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 75.72 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1897. 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. CORR 1. 91. 231. 276. 276. 276. 253. 45. RBAR 0.551 0.300 0.229 0.190 0.209 0.214 0.312 0.191 SDEV 0.000 0.296 0.326 0.257 0.280 0.328 0.363 0.278 SERR 0.000 0.031 0.021 0.015 0.017 0.020 0.023 0.041 EPS 0.919 0.898 0.875 0.849 0.864 0.868 0.916 0.825 NSS 9.3 20.5 23.7 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 19.9 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1887 1979 93 0.511 0.200 -0.560 2.626 0.272 0.713 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.484 0.193 0.099 51 42 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 2.50 3.51 1.02 1.37 4.88 137.53 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.11 0.83 0.89 0.99 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 78. 14. 60. 69. 83. 93. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.706 0.683 0.645 0.653 0.577 0.560 0.574 0.530 0.473 0.446 PACF 0.706 0.369 0.186 0.199 -0.022 0.025 0.125 -0.015 -0.077 -0.038 95% C.L. 0.207 0.293 0.355 0.402 0.446 0.477 0.504 0.532 0.554 0.571 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.637 0.288 0.247 0.124 0.240 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 554011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00638765 0.66767800 2 554012 1 1.03067529 0.02984240 0.00000000 0.11210132 3 554021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00857435 0.85507399 4 554022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00611872 0.80229622 5 554031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00020764 0.83519405 6 554032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00291621 0.81870061 7 554041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00958164 0.85849506 8 554042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00746641 0.70789677 9 554051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00105996 0.70167118 10 554052 1 0.48554185 0.01470098 0.00000000 0.32786319 11 554061 1 0.59421897 0.02259178 0.00000000 0.10312930 12 554062 1 1.41011965 0.10326054 0.00000000 0.16235353 13 554071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00641969 0.78952628 14 554072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00232794 0.80453908 15 554081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00361180 0.68061477 16 554082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00089522 0.71529239 17 554091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00809173 0.84678417 18 554092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01747476 1.10271287 19 554101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00634398 0.69515818 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 554102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00681286 0.67595804 21 554111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00684266 0.92994583 22 554112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00573452 0.87130529 23 554121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00023940 0.56582159 24 554122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00263313 0.66201931 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 554011 1887 1978 92 0.991 0.405 0.326 3.536 0.389 0.216 2 554012 1896 1978 83 0.992 0.471 1.420 8.224 0.388 0.332 3 554021 1894 1973 80 0.982 0.367 0.034 3.792 0.397 0.168 4 554022 1890 1975 86 0.977 0.472 0.579 3.729 0.373 0.453 5 554031 1907 1979 73 1.000 0.713 3.000 13.933 0.287 0.766 6 554032 1899 1979 81 0.998 0.500 1.109 4.058 0.268 0.783 7 554041 1905 1974 70 0.971 0.550 1.083 4.057 0.536 0.027 8 554042 1898 1976 79 0.997 0.436 0.758 3.650 0.439 0.033 9 554051 1898 1979 82 1.000 0.692 2.599 10.753 0.411 0.699 10 554052 1897 1979 83 1.000 0.623 1.665 7.004 0.461 0.392 11 554061 1896 1979 84 0.999 0.410 2.006 9.030 0.335 0.486 12 554062 1904 1979 76 0.998 0.419 0.247 2.429 0.367 0.462 13 554071 1904 1979 76 0.998 0.526 1.151 4.043 0.399 0.555 14 554072 1912 1979 68 1.000 0.543 1.102 3.867 0.374 0.618 15 554081 1887 1979 93 0.992 0.477 2.127 11.583 0.342 0.621 16 554082 1897 1979 83 1.000 0.552 1.028 4.692 0.365 0.506 17 554091 1903 1968 66 0.983 0.435 0.097 2.533 0.420 0.356 18 554092 1908 1969 62 1.081 0.561 2.430 10.569 0.423 0.078 19 554101 1914 1973 60 0.989 0.423 0.127 2.325 0.431 0.302 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 554102 1909 1974 66 0.981 0.460 0.565 3.064 0.445 0.340 21 554111 1892 1973 82 0.982 0.492 0.910 3.422 0.363 0.538 22 554112 1899 1974 76 0.993 0.392 0.177 3.230 0.369 0.375 23 554121 1898 1969 72 1.000 0.421 -0.031 2.517 0.319 0.544 24 554122 1903 1970 68 0.998 0.423 0.174 2.773 0.312 0.540 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 77 0.996 0.490 1.028 5.367 0.384 0.425 STANDARD DEVIATION 8 0.020 0.091 0.883 3.401 0.059 0.213 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 77 0.997 0.471 0.969 3.830 0.381 0.458 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 14 0.013 0.124 1.330 4.467 0.069 0.233 MINIMUM VALUE 60 0.971 0.367 -0.031 2.325 0.268 0.027 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 69 0.986 0.422 0.212 3.147 0.352 0.317 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 83 1.000 0.547 1.542 7.614 0.421 0.550 MAXIMUM VALUE 93 1.081 0.713 3.000 13.933 0.536 0.783 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 554011 -67 61 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 554012 -67 55 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 554021 -67 53 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 554022 -67 57 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 554031 -67 48 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 554032 -67 54 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 554041 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 554042 -67 52 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 554051 -67 54 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 554052 -67 55 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 554061 -67 56 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 554062 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 554071 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 554072 -67 45 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 554081 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 554082 -67 55 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 554091 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 554092 -67 41 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 554101 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 554102 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 554111 -67 54 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 554112 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 554121 -67 48 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 554122 -67 45 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 554011 1887 1978 92 0.996 0.403 0.495 4.356 0.389 0.177 2 554012 1896 1978 83 0.987 0.406 1.131 7.714 0.385 0.214 3 554021 1894 1973 80 0.992 0.340 -0.029 3.588 0.396 -0.092 4 554022 1890 1975 86 0.997 0.375 0.671 5.105 0.380 0.050 5 554031 1907 1979 73 0.976 0.521 2.106 10.289 0.291 0.644 6 554032 1899 1979 81 0.982 0.329 0.734 3.124 0.266 0.419 7 554041 1905 1974 70 0.993 0.508 1.319 5.188 0.533 -0.148 8 554042 1898 1976 79 0.994 0.422 0.864 3.722 0.439 -0.066 9 554051 1898 1979 82 0.982 0.532 1.664 6.831 0.412 0.511 10 554052 1897 1979 83 0.983 0.564 1.465 6.136 0.462 0.331 11 554061 1896 1979 84 0.996 0.374 1.490 6.543 0.335 0.392 12 554062 1904 1979 76 0.995 0.323 0.187 3.277 0.368 0.018 13 554071 1904 1979 76 0.989 0.488 1.103 4.165 0.397 0.493 14 554072 1912 1979 68 0.987 0.484 1.166 4.322 0.377 0.494 15 554081 1887 1979 93 0.996 0.382 1.543 8.065 0.342 0.410 16 554082 1897 1979 83 0.969 0.473 0.803 4.275 0.366 0.454 17 554091 1903 1968 66 0.986 0.339 0.480 4.276 0.414 -0.099 18 554092 1908 1969 62 0.996 0.368 0.270 3.657 0.422 -0.107 19 554101 1914 1973 60 0.996 0.382 0.860 3.825 0.432 -0.215 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 554102 1909 1974 66 0.989 0.387 0.441 2.809 0.443 0.007 21 554111 1892 1973 82 0.995 0.360 0.838 4.094 0.363 -0.012 22 554112 1899 1974 76 0.990 0.347 0.540 4.868 0.369 0.160 23 554121 1898 1969 72 0.980 0.333 0.370 3.424 0.321 0.278 24 554122 1903 1970 68 0.982 0.346 0.471 4.252 0.311 0.327 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 77 0.989 0.408 0.874 4.913 0.384 0.193 STANDARD DEVIATION 8 0.008 0.073 0.530 1.821 0.058 0.253 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 77 0.989 0.382 0.821 4.275 0.382 0.195 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 14 0.013 0.132 0.767 1.973 0.065 0.454 MINIMUM VALUE 60 0.969 0.323 -0.029 2.809 0.266 -0.215 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 69 0.982 0.347 0.476 3.689 0.353 -0.039 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 83 0.995 0.479 1.243 5.662 0.418 0.415 MAXIMUM VALUE 93 0.997 0.564 2.106 10.289 0.533 0.644 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.191 0.186 0.011 0.167 3.280 -0.342 0.862 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.342 SERIES 554031 AND 554052 73 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.862 SERIES 554121 AND 554122 67 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 75.72 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1897. 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. CORR 1. 91. 231. 276. 276. 276. 253. 45. RBAR 0.495 0.354 0.228 0.208 0.221 0.200 0.185 0.104 SDEV 0.000 0.245 0.265 0.241 0.270 0.284 0.286 0.334 SERR 0.000 0.026 0.017 0.015 0.016 0.017 0.018 0.050 EPS 0.901 0.919 0.875 0.863 0.872 0.857 0.844 0.698 NSS 9.3 20.5 23.7 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 19.9 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1887 1979 93 0.960 0.204 -0.509 4.477 0.256 -0.027 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.204 0.142 0.175 33 60 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.44 0.71 1.01 1.13 1.84 25.74 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.05 0.78 0.88 0.94 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.026 -0.019 -0.027 -0.011 -0.083 -0.015 0.086 0.073 -0.144 0.036 PACF -0.026 -0.020 -0.028 -0.013 -0.085 -0.021 0.081 0.073 -0.143 0.029 95% C.L. 0.207 0.208 0.208 0.208 0.208 0.209 0.209 0.211 0.212 0.216 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.102 -0.036 -0.062 0.023 -0.164 -0.053 0.101 0.159 -0.139 0.027 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 -0.102 2 -0.107 -0.047 3 -0.110 -0.055 -0.072 4 -0.110 -0.055 -0.071 0.007 5 -0.109 -0.067 -0.081 -0.012 -0.169 6 -0.125 -0.068 -0.088 -0.018 -0.180 -0.096 7 -0.118 -0.055 -0.087 -0.012 -0.175 -0.087 0.072 8 -0.129 -0.041 -0.060 -0.010 -0.161 -0.079 0.090 0.157 9 -0.112 -0.031 -0.068 -0.028 -0.163 -0.085 0.086 0.143 -0.110 10 -0.113 -0.031 -0.068 -0.028 -0.163 -0.085 0.085 0.142 -0.111 -0.004 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 679.47 680.50 682.29 683.80 685.80 685.09 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 686.22 687.74 687.43 688.29 690.29 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 0 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 554011 0 0.031 2 554012 0 0.049 3 554021 0 0.009 4 554022 0 0.003 5 554031 0 0.417 6 554032 0 0.196 7 554041 0 0.022 8 554042 0 0.005 9 554051 0 0.271 10 554052 0 0.113 11 554061 0 0.157 12 554062 0 0.000 13 554071 0 0.247 14 554072 0 0.267 15 554081 0 0.170 16 554082 0 0.213 17 554091 0 0.010 18 554092 0 0.013 19 554101 0 0.048 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 554102 0 0.000 21 554111 0 0.000 22 554112 0 0.028 23 554121 0 0.083 24 554122 0 0.120 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 0 0.103 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.115 MEDIAN 0 0.048 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.174 MINIMUM VALUE 0 0.000 LOWER HINGE 0 0.009 UPPER HINGE 0 0.183 MAXIMUM VALUE 0 0.417 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 554011 1887 1978 92 1.000 0.403 0.495 4.356 0.387 0.177 2 554012 1896 1978 83 1.000 0.406 1.131 7.714 0.379 0.214 3 554021 1894 1973 80 1.000 0.340 -0.029 3.588 0.393 -0.092 4 554022 1890 1975 86 1.000 0.375 0.671 5.105 0.378 0.050 5 554031 1907 1979 73 1.000 0.521 2.106 10.289 0.281 0.644 6 554032 1899 1979 81 1.000 0.329 0.734 3.124 0.261 0.419 7 554041 1905 1974 70 1.000 0.508 1.319 5.188 0.528 -0.148 8 554042 1898 1976 79 1.000 0.422 0.864 3.722 0.436 -0.066 9 554051 1898 1979 82 1.000 0.532 1.664 6.831 0.403 0.511 10 554052 1897 1979 83 1.000 0.564 1.465 6.136 0.451 0.331 11 554061 1896 1979 84 1.000 0.374 1.490 6.543 0.333 0.392 12 554062 1904 1979 76 1.000 0.323 0.187 3.277 0.366 0.018 13 554071 1904 1979 76 1.000 0.488 1.103 4.165 0.392 0.493 14 554072 1912 1979 68 1.000 0.484 1.166 4.322 0.371 0.494 15 554081 1887 1979 93 1.000 0.382 1.543 8.065 0.340 0.410 16 554082 1897 1979 83 1.000 0.473 0.803 4.275 0.349 0.454 17 554091 1903 1968 66 1.000 0.339 0.480 4.276 0.407 -0.099 18 554092 1908 1969 62 1.000 0.368 0.270 3.657 0.420 -0.107 19 554101 1914 1973 60 1.000 0.382 0.860 3.825 0.430 -0.215 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 554102 1909 1974 66 1.000 0.387 0.441 2.809 0.437 0.007 21 554111 1892 1973 82 1.000 0.360 0.838 4.094 0.361 -0.012 22 554112 1899 1974 76 1.000 0.347 0.540 4.868 0.365 0.160 23 554121 1898 1969 72 1.000 0.333 0.370 3.424 0.313 0.278 24 554122 1903 1970 68 1.000 0.346 0.471 4.252 0.304 0.327 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 77 1.000 0.408 0.874 4.913 0.379 0.193 STANDARD DEVIATION 8 0.000 0.073 0.530 1.821 0.059 0.253 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 77 1.000 0.382 0.821 4.275 0.378 0.195 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 14 0.000 0.132 0.767 1.973 0.068 0.454 MINIMUM VALUE 60 1.000 0.323 -0.029 2.809 0.261 -0.215 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 69 1.000 0.347 0.476 3.689 0.345 -0.039 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 83 1.000 0.479 1.243 5.662 0.413 0.415 MAXIMUM VALUE 93 1.000 0.564 2.106 10.289 0.528 0.644 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.191 0.186 0.011 0.167 3.280 -0.342 0.862 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.342 SERIES 554031 AND 554052 73 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.862 SERIES 554121 AND 554122 67 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 75.72 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1897. 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. CORR 1. 91. 231. 276. 276. 276. 253. 45. RBAR 0.495 0.354 0.228 0.208 0.221 0.200 0.185 0.104 SDEV 0.000 0.245 0.265 0.241 0.270 0.284 0.286 0.334 SERR 0.000 0.026 0.017 0.015 0.016 0.017 0.018 0.050 EPS 0.901 0.919 0.875 0.863 0.872 0.857 0.844 0.698 NSS 9.3 20.5 23.7 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 19.9 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1887 1979 93 0.971 0.204 -0.515 4.500 0.253 -0.029 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.208 0.145 0.171 33 60 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.48 0.77 1.00 1.13 1.90 28.21 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.06 0.78 0.88 0.94 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.029 -0.020 -0.027 -0.010 -0.085 -0.016 0.087 0.072 -0.146 0.034 PACF -0.029 -0.021 -0.028 -0.012 -0.087 -0.023 0.082 0.072 -0.144 0.025 95% C.L. 0.207 0.208 0.208 0.208 0.208 0.209 0.209 0.211 0.212 0.216 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1887 1979 93 0.971 0.204 -0.515 4.500 0.253 -0.029 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.029 -0.020 -0.027 -0.010 -0.085 -0.016 0.087 0.072 -0.146 0.034 PACF -0.029 -0.021 -0.028 -0.012 -0.087 -0.023 0.082 0.072 -0.144 0.025 95% C.L. 0.207 0.208 0.208 0.208 0.208 0.209 0.209 0.211 0.212 0.216 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.27 MINUTES