RUN: SWIT004 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWIT158P.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWIT158P.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 20 10 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 554 1 Illiswil BE, Tanne abst. LATEWOOD_PERCENT ABAL - 554 2 Switzerland silver fir, European fir 597 4659-721 1887 1979 - 554 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 3 554021 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1963 1963 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 554022 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1963 1964 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 554041 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1956 1956 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 554062 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 2 GAPS / 1963 1964 / 1968 1968 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 554091 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1964 1964 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 554011 1887 1978 92 2.818 0.815 0.283 3.486 0.258 0.352 2 554012 1896 1978 83 3.590 0.925 0.116 3.768 0.233 0.322 3 554021 1894 1973 80 3.053 0.929 0.346 2.622 0.305 0.235 4 554022 1890 1975 86 3.105 1.039 0.272 2.698 0.252 0.551 5 554031 1907 1979 73 4.603 1.258 0.090 2.939 0.227 0.585 6 554032 1899 1979 81 4.433 1.158 0.022 2.538 0.204 0.521 7 554041 1905 1974 70 3.382 1.169 0.692 3.116 0.334 0.165 8 554042 1898 1976 79 3.321 1.340 0.453 2.515 0.339 0.447 9 554051 1898 1979 82 3.354 0.919 -0.015 4.111 0.262 0.236 10 554052 1897 1979 83 3.570 1.178 1.335 4.975 0.314 0.181 11 554061 1896 1979 84 2.711 1.096 0.079 1.927 0.274 0.609 12 554062 1904 1979 76 2.487 1.005 0.645 3.037 0.276 0.648 13 554071 1904 1979 76 3.177 1.128 1.106 4.354 0.298 0.539 14 554072 1912 1979 68 3.142 1.081 0.233 2.427 0.337 0.286 15 554081 1887 1979 93 3.468 1.147 0.461 2.825 0.279 0.485 16 554082 1897 1979 83 3.666 1.230 0.680 3.198 0.257 0.542 17 554091 1903 1968 66 2.510 0.957 0.877 2.863 0.344 0.246 18 554092 1908 1969 62 2.723 1.059 1.256 4.309 0.322 0.306 19 554101 1914 1973 60 2.367 0.829 0.616 3.410 0.360 0.178 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 554102 1909 1974 66 2.110 0.833 0.443 2.428 0.369 0.355 21 554111 1892 1973 82 2.471 0.874 0.480 2.968 0.344 0.207 22 554112 1899 1974 76 2.673 0.946 0.778 3.323 0.323 0.395 23 554121 1898 1969 72 2.999 0.929 0.482 3.757 0.306 0.286 24 554122 1903 1970 68 3.066 0.913 -0.116 2.563 0.291 0.309 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 24 FROM 1887 TO 1979 93 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 76 3.117 1.032 0.484 3.173 0.296 0.374 STANDARD DEVIATION 8 0.603 0.147 0.391 0.735 0.044 0.152 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 77 3.086 1.022 0.457 3.002 0.301 0.337 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 14 0.733 0.231 0.512 1.029 0.075 0.289 MINIMUM VALUE 60 2.110 0.815 -0.116 1.927 0.204 0.165 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 68 2.692 0.922 0.175 2.593 0.260 0.241 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 83 3.425 1.153 0.686 3.622 0.335 0.530 MAXIMUM VALUE 93 4.603 1.340 1.335 4.975 0.369 0.648 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.390 0.154 0.009 -0.588 3.660 -0.186 0.792 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.186 SERIES 554012 AND 554112 76 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.792 SERIES 554121 AND 554122 67 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 75.72 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1897. 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. CORR 1. 91. 231. 276. 276. 276. 253. 45. RBAR 0.179 0.298 0.401 0.396 0.438 0.134 0.133 0.250 SDEV 0.000 0.245 0.241 0.197 0.188 0.275 0.271 0.198 SERR 0.000 0.026 0.016 0.012 0.011 0.017 0.017 0.029 EPS 0.670 0.897 0.941 0.940 0.949 0.788 0.786 0.869 NSS 9.3 20.5 23.7 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 19.9 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1887 1979 93 3.014 0.716 0.091 2.453 0.179 0.563 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.618 0.271 0.141 27 66 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.14 0.21 1.00 1.06 1.27 2.55 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.07 0.81 0.87 0.94 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 78. 14. 60. 69. 83. 93. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.557 0.552 0.456 0.538 0.466 0.455 0.432 0.400 0.365 0.383 PACF 0.557 0.350 0.102 0.266 0.079 0.047 0.071 -0.012 -0.021 0.065 95% C.L. 0.207 0.264 0.310 0.337 0.372 0.397 0.418 0.437 0.453 0.465 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.406 0.359 0.358 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 554011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01084753 2.31406832 2 554012 1 2.45346904 0.13460080 0.00000000 3.38471937 3 554021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01664584 2.38054752 4 554022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02189252 2.15310383 5 554031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.03000648 3.49277401 6 554032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02791486 3.28833032 7 554041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02739848 2.40478253 8 554042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.04152045 1.66019475 9 554051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01279753 2.82317066 10 554052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02027035 2.71852493 11 554061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02492386 1.65204537 12 554062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01044715 2.08281279 13 554071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02645195 2.15896845 14 554072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02586938 2.24927139 15 554081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02673152 2.21146798 16 554082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01984677 2.83270049 17 554091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02822470 1.57053423 18 554092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.03104631 1.74494445 19 554101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02417310 1.62955368 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 554102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02422920 1.29801869 21 554111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01639403 1.79111111 22 554112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02509392 1.70677888 23 554121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01792205 2.34473395 24 554122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02093293 2.34399033 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 554011 1887 1978 92 1.000 0.265 0.030 3.508 0.255 0.258 2 554012 1896 1978 83 1.000 0.232 -0.151 3.840 0.229 0.136 3 554021 1894 1973 80 1.000 0.266 -0.077 2.682 0.296 0.054 4 554022 1890 1975 86 0.998 0.283 0.537 3.069 0.243 0.378 5 554031 1907 1979 73 0.998 0.233 -0.070 2.757 0.224 0.399 6 554032 1899 1979 81 0.999 0.211 -0.417 3.227 0.201 0.294 7 554041 1905 1974 70 0.998 0.291 0.495 2.804 0.326 -0.088 8 554042 1898 1976 79 1.004 0.313 0.873 5.227 0.334 0.130 9 554051 1898 1979 82 1.000 0.252 -0.314 4.756 0.258 0.123 10 554052 1897 1979 83 1.001 0.281 0.584 3.902 0.309 -0.022 11 554061 1896 1979 84 1.004 0.378 0.649 2.926 0.270 0.444 12 554062 1904 1979 76 1.001 0.414 1.430 5.593 0.265 0.658 13 554071 1904 1979 76 1.001 0.293 0.512 2.891 0.294 0.311 14 554072 1912 1979 68 0.999 0.293 -0.215 2.524 0.332 0.129 15 554081 1887 1979 93 1.001 0.266 0.487 2.716 0.276 0.147 16 554082 1897 1979 83 0.999 0.296 0.243 2.831 0.254 0.452 17 554091 1903 1968 66 1.003 0.333 1.563 5.844 0.335 -0.043 18 554092 1908 1969 62 1.005 0.322 0.674 3.219 0.318 0.111 19 554101 1914 1973 60 1.001 0.307 0.597 3.895 0.354 -0.080 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 554102 1909 1974 66 1.000 0.335 0.623 3.520 0.364 0.000 21 554111 1892 1973 82 1.001 0.336 0.965 4.718 0.340 0.037 22 554112 1899 1974 76 1.000 0.273 0.181 2.602 0.320 0.021 23 554121 1898 1969 72 1.000 0.290 0.514 3.173 0.302 0.142 24 554122 1903 1970 68 0.999 0.259 -0.541 2.861 0.286 0.127 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 77 1.001 0.293 0.382 3.545 0.291 0.172 STANDARD DEVIATION 8 0.002 0.046 0.538 0.987 0.044 0.191 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 77 1.000 0.290 0.504 3.196 0.295 0.129 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 14 0.002 0.053 0.709 1.081 0.072 0.274 MINIMUM VALUE 60 0.998 0.211 -0.541 2.524 0.201 -0.088 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 69 0.999 0.265 -0.074 2.818 0.257 0.029 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 83 1.001 0.318 0.636 3.899 0.329 0.302 MAXIMUM VALUE 93 1.005 0.414 1.563 5.844 0.364 0.658 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 554011 -67 61 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 554012 -67 55 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 554021 -67 53 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 554022 -67 57 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 554031 -67 48 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 554032 -67 54 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 554041 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 554042 -67 52 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 554051 -67 54 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 554052 -67 55 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 554061 -67 56 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 554062 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 554071 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 554072 -67 45 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 554081 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 554082 -67 55 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 554091 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 554092 -67 41 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 554101 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 554102 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 554111 -67 54 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 554112 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 554121 -67 48 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 554122 -67 45 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 554011 1887 1978 92 0.998 0.256 0.095 3.683 0.255 0.207 2 554012 1896 1978 83 0.999 0.222 -0.337 3.732 0.229 0.081 3 554021 1894 1973 80 0.998 0.254 0.021 2.735 0.296 -0.070 4 554022 1890 1975 86 0.998 0.257 0.242 2.934 0.243 0.260 5 554031 1907 1979 73 0.998 0.208 0.027 2.905 0.226 0.204 6 554032 1899 1979 81 0.998 0.188 -0.742 3.410 0.202 0.090 7 554041 1905 1974 70 0.997 0.261 0.212 2.471 0.326 -0.275 8 554042 1898 1976 79 0.998 0.287 0.405 4.043 0.333 -0.002 9 554051 1898 1979 82 0.997 0.229 -0.744 5.367 0.258 -0.023 10 554052 1897 1979 83 0.999 0.267 0.363 3.217 0.310 -0.100 11 554061 1896 1979 84 0.984 0.297 0.967 4.781 0.268 0.173 12 554062 1904 1979 76 0.982 0.296 0.607 2.907 0.262 0.413 13 554071 1904 1979 76 0.997 0.266 0.352 2.878 0.293 0.178 14 554072 1912 1979 68 0.999 0.289 -0.157 2.588 0.331 0.085 15 554081 1887 1979 93 0.997 0.238 0.288 2.712 0.275 0.010 16 554082 1897 1979 83 0.994 0.263 0.279 3.032 0.254 0.311 17 554091 1903 1968 66 0.999 0.315 1.448 5.318 0.335 -0.144 18 554092 1908 1969 62 0.999 0.294 0.788 3.293 0.317 -0.043 19 554101 1914 1973 60 0.999 0.294 0.384 3.613 0.354 -0.151 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 554102 1909 1974 66 0.997 0.322 0.565 3.554 0.364 -0.069 21 554111 1892 1973 82 0.999 0.328 0.834 4.323 0.341 0.011 22 554112 1899 1974 76 0.998 0.263 0.167 2.462 0.319 -0.048 23 554121 1898 1969 72 0.998 0.280 0.479 3.156 0.301 0.096 24 554122 1903 1970 68 0.999 0.252 -0.393 3.498 0.285 0.068 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 77 0.997 0.268 0.256 3.442 0.291 0.053 STANDARD DEVIATION 8 0.004 0.035 0.509 0.820 0.044 0.161 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 77 0.998 0.265 0.283 3.255 0.295 0.039 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 14 0.001 0.041 0.498 0.817 0.072 0.234 MINIMUM VALUE 60 0.982 0.188 -0.744 2.462 0.202 -0.275 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 69 0.997 0.253 0.024 2.891 0.256 -0.059 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 83 0.999 0.294 0.522 3.708 0.329 0.175 MAXIMUM VALUE 93 0.999 0.328 1.448 5.367 0.364 0.413 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.279 0.131 0.008 0.198 3.498 -0.063 0.776 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.063 SERIES 554012 AND 554112 76 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.776 SERIES 554121 AND 554122 67 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 75.72 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1897. 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. CORR 1. 91. 231. 276. 276. 276. 253. 45. RBAR 0.257 0.348 0.398 0.433 0.329 0.168 0.137 0.276 SDEV 0.000 0.222 0.222 0.193 0.206 0.263 0.271 0.188 SERR 0.000 0.023 0.015 0.012 0.012 0.016 0.017 0.028 EPS 0.763 0.916 0.940 0.948 0.922 0.828 0.792 0.884 NSS 9.3 20.5 23.7 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 19.9 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1887 1979 93 0.992 0.160 -0.065 3.057 0.181 0.016 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.222 0.093 0.127 26 67 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.25 0.29 1.01 1.08 1.37 1099.61 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.07 0.70 0.87 0.95 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.016 -0.026 -0.190 0.045 0.000 0.008 -0.037 -0.154 -0.119 -0.060 PACF 0.016 -0.026 -0.189 0.052 -0.012 -0.026 -0.019 -0.164 -0.125 -0.083 95% C.L. 0.207 0.207 0.208 0.215 0.215 0.215 0.215 0.216 0.220 0.223 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.019 0.088 -0.123 0.106 -0.022 -0.104 0.025 -0.121 -0.143 -0.131 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 -0.019 2 -0.017 0.087 3 -0.007 0.085 -0.121 4 0.005 0.077 -0.120 0.097 5 0.005 0.077 -0.120 0.097 -0.001 6 0.005 0.090 -0.137 0.108 0.000 -0.140 7 0.013 0.090 -0.143 0.116 -0.005 -0.140 0.055 8 0.019 0.074 -0.144 0.129 -0.023 -0.129 0.057 -0.121 9 -0.003 0.084 -0.168 0.125 0.002 -0.156 0.070 -0.117 -0.187 10 -0.018 0.075 -0.162 0.113 0.002 -0.146 0.057 -0.111 -0.188 -0.080 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 631.13 633.10 634.38 635.01 636.13 638.13 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 638.30 640.02 640.65 639.32 640.72 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 0 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 554011 0 0.044 2 554012 0 0.008 3 554021 0 0.005 4 554022 0 0.068 5 554031 0 0.043 6 554032 0 0.008 7 554041 0 0.080 8 554042 0 0.000 9 554051 0 0.001 10 554052 0 0.011 11 554061 0 0.030 12 554062 0 0.171 13 554071 0 0.032 14 554072 0 0.007 15 554081 0 0.000 16 554082 0 0.101 17 554091 0 0.021 18 554092 0 0.002 19 554101 0 0.025 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 554102 0 0.005 21 554111 0 0.000 22 554112 0 0.003 23 554121 0 0.010 24 554122 0 0.005 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 0 0.028 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.041 MEDIAN 0 0.009 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.034 MINIMUM VALUE 0 0.000 LOWER HINGE 0 0.004 UPPER HINGE 0 0.038 MAXIMUM VALUE 0 0.171 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 554011 1887 1978 92 1.000 0.256 0.095 3.683 0.254 0.207 2 554012 1896 1978 83 1.000 0.222 -0.337 3.732 0.229 0.081 3 554021 1894 1973 80 1.000 0.254 0.021 2.735 0.295 -0.070 4 554022 1890 1975 86 1.000 0.257 0.242 2.934 0.242 0.260 5 554031 1907 1979 73 1.000 0.208 0.027 2.905 0.225 0.204 6 554032 1899 1979 81 1.000 0.188 -0.742 3.410 0.201 0.090 7 554041 1905 1974 70 1.000 0.261 0.212 2.471 0.325 -0.275 8 554042 1898 1976 79 1.000 0.287 0.405 4.043 0.332 -0.002 9 554051 1898 1979 82 1.000 0.229 -0.744 5.367 0.257 -0.023 10 554052 1897 1979 83 1.000 0.267 0.363 3.217 0.309 -0.100 11 554061 1896 1979 84 1.000 0.297 0.967 4.781 0.264 0.173 12 554062 1904 1979 76 1.000 0.296 0.607 2.907 0.257 0.413 13 554071 1904 1979 76 1.000 0.266 0.352 2.878 0.292 0.178 14 554072 1912 1979 68 1.000 0.289 -0.157 2.588 0.331 0.085 15 554081 1887 1979 93 1.000 0.238 0.288 2.712 0.275 0.010 16 554082 1897 1979 83 1.000 0.263 0.279 3.032 0.253 0.311 17 554091 1903 1968 66 1.000 0.315 1.448 5.318 0.335 -0.144 18 554092 1908 1969 62 1.000 0.294 0.788 3.293 0.316 -0.043 19 554101 1914 1973 60 1.000 0.294 0.384 3.613 0.353 -0.151 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 554102 1909 1974 66 1.000 0.322 0.565 3.554 0.363 -0.069 21 554111 1892 1973 82 1.000 0.328 0.834 4.323 0.340 0.011 22 554112 1899 1974 76 1.000 0.263 0.167 2.462 0.318 -0.048 23 554121 1898 1969 72 1.000 0.280 0.479 3.156 0.301 0.096 24 554122 1903 1970 68 1.000 0.252 -0.393 3.498 0.285 0.068 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 77 1.000 0.268 0.256 3.442 0.290 0.053 STANDARD DEVIATION 8 0.000 0.035 0.509 0.820 0.044 0.161 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 77 1.000 0.265 0.283 3.255 0.294 0.039 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 14 0.000 0.041 0.498 0.817 0.073 0.234 MINIMUM VALUE 60 1.000 0.188 -0.744 2.462 0.201 -0.275 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 69 1.000 0.253 0.024 2.891 0.255 -0.059 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 83 1.000 0.294 0.522 3.708 0.328 0.175 MAXIMUM VALUE 93 1.000 0.328 1.448 5.367 0.363 0.413 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.279 0.131 0.008 0.198 3.498 -0.063 0.776 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.063 SERIES 554012 AND 554112 76 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.776 SERIES 554121 AND 554122 67 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 75.72 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1897. 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. CORR 1. 91. 231. 276. 276. 276. 253. 45. RBAR 0.257 0.348 0.398 0.433 0.329 0.168 0.137 0.276 SDEV 0.000 0.222 0.222 0.193 0.206 0.263 0.271 0.188 SERR 0.000 0.023 0.015 0.012 0.012 0.016 0.017 0.028 EPS 0.763 0.916 0.940 0.948 0.922 0.828 0.792 0.884 NSS 9.3 20.5 23.7 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 19.9 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1887 1979 93 0.995 0.160 -0.064 3.040 0.180 0.017 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.226 0.095 0.125 26 67 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.24 0.37 1.00 1.08 1.45 555.90 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.07 0.70 0.87 0.95 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.017 -0.025 -0.189 0.044 0.000 0.009 -0.037 -0.154 -0.117 -0.061 PACF 0.017 -0.025 -0.188 0.051 -0.011 -0.025 -0.020 -0.164 -0.122 -0.083 95% C.L. 0.207 0.207 0.208 0.215 0.215 0.215 0.215 0.216 0.220 0.223 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1887 1979 93 0.995 0.160 -0.064 3.040 0.180 0.017 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.017 -0.025 -0.189 0.044 0.000 0.009 -0.037 -0.154 -0.117 -0.061 PACF 0.017 -0.025 -0.188 0.051 -0.011 -0.025 -0.020 -0.164 -0.122 -0.083 95% C.L. 0.207 0.207 0.208 0.215 0.215 0.215 0.215 0.216 0.220 0.223 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.25 MINUTES