RUN: SWIT003 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWIT159E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWIT159E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 577 1 Torrent des Croix VS WIDTH_EARLY PISY - 577 2 Switzerland Scots pine, Scotch pine 1540 4607-711 1883 1979 - 577 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 5 577031 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1913 1913 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 8 577042 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1904 1904 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 577092 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1976 1976 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 577011 1835 1979 145 0.660 0.307 1.525 5.165 0.184 0.869 2 577012 1840 1979 140 0.735 0.450 1.658 5.382 0.190 0.903 3 577021 1840 1979 140 0.794 0.361 0.617 3.446 0.232 0.818 4 577022 1835 1979 145 0.600 0.307 1.397 5.107 0.234 0.807 5 577031 1840 1979 140 0.592 0.555 2.107 7.042 0.249 0.922 6 577032 1842 1979 138 0.483 0.407 2.747 11.256 0.285 0.816 7 577041 1846 1979 134 0.624 0.327 2.335 12.514 0.271 0.707 8 577042 1833 1979 147 0.827 0.432 1.385 5.021 0.244 0.837 9 577051 1842 1979 138 0.711 0.540 2.789 10.811 0.215 0.883 10 577052 1842 1979 138 0.684 0.543 2.361 8.718 0.193 0.880 11 577061 1855 1979 125 0.811 0.230 0.562 3.793 0.198 0.647 12 577062 1844 1979 136 0.780 0.239 0.872 5.156 0.186 0.658 13 577071 1844 1979 136 0.715 0.613 2.884 10.600 0.219 0.896 14 577072 1842 1979 138 0.745 0.872 2.536 8.788 0.264 0.920 15 577091 1840 1979 140 0.641 0.313 1.857 7.850 0.223 0.813 16 577092 1847 1979 133 0.627 0.423 1.202 4.535 0.227 0.882 17 577111 1854 1971 118 0.588 0.339 0.975 3.165 0.271 0.774 18 577112 1847 1979 133 0.479 0.321 1.284 3.747 0.269 0.851 19 577121 1850 1979 130 0.777 0.515 2.251 8.074 0.225 0.886 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 577122 1853 1979 127 0.734 0.433 2.059 6.902 0.222 0.811 21 577131 1847 1979 133 0.650 0.388 2.134 8.764 0.235 0.780 22 577132 1845 1979 135 0.755 0.494 1.601 5.297 0.215 0.885 23 577141 1849 1979 131 0.595 0.392 1.855 6.043 0.204 0.865 24 577142 1847 1979 133 0.706 0.539 1.747 5.143 0.191 0.910 25 577151 1846 1979 134 0.726 0.408 2.083 8.968 0.218 0.779 26 577152 1844 1979 136 0.625 0.318 1.598 5.476 0.229 0.775 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 26 FROM 1833 TO 1979 147 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 135 0.679 0.426 1.785 6.799 0.227 0.830 STANDARD DEVIATION 6 0.092 0.136 0.644 2.613 0.029 0.075 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 136 0.695 0.407 1.801 5.760 0.224 0.844 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 6 0.121 0.194 0.866 3.657 0.040 0.105 MINIMUM VALUE 118 0.479 0.230 0.562 3.165 0.184 0.647 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 133 0.624 0.321 1.385 5.107 0.204 0.780 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 139 0.745 0.515 2.251 8.764 0.244 0.885 MAXIMUM VALUE 146 0.827 0.872 2.884 12.514 0.285 0.922 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.768 0.121 0.007 -1.264 5.652 0.222 0.965 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.222 SERIES 577042 AND 577111 118 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.965 SERIES 577071 AND 577072 136 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 89.82 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 325. 325. 325. RBAR 0.610 0.491 0.386 SDEV 0.140 0.163 0.227 SERR 0.008 0.009 0.013 EPS 0.976 0.962 0.942 NSS 26.0 26.0 26.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1833 1979 147 0.740 0.454 1.546 4.599 0.169 0.926 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.738 0.252 0.034 55 92 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.14 0.24 1.00 1.08 1.32 2.19 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.07 0.00 0.88 0.94 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 136. 7. 118. 133. 140. 147. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.920 0.898 0.865 0.813 0.798 0.763 0.745 0.720 0.678 0.663 PACF 0.920 0.339 0.054 -0.162 0.141 0.012 0.066 -0.048 -0.121 0.075 95% C.L. 0.165 0.271 0.342 0.397 0.440 0.478 0.510 0.539 0.564 0.586 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.897 0.552 0.235 0.179 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 577011 1 1.18289351 0.04534119 0.00000000 0.48472387 2 577012 1 1.83746028 0.05152764 0.00000000 0.48747659 3 577021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00721005 1.30252314 4 577022 1 1.08230233 0.03553518 0.00000000 0.39457795 5 577031 1 2.31889343 0.04821329 0.00000000 0.25521860 6 577032 1 2.05507112 0.09507862 0.00000000 0.33418173 7 577041 1 2.14489698 0.20946850 0.00000000 0.55526394 8 577042 1 1.53997731 0.05318997 0.00000000 0.63356984 9 577051 1 2.65678310 0.07435562 0.00000000 0.46175969 10 577052 1 2.44497871 0.05839208 0.00000000 0.38980007 11 577061 1 0.64943451 0.04164235 0.00000000 0.68976879 12 577062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00410892 1.06101966 13 577071 1 3.22096229 0.08415455 0.00000000 0.44554681 14 577072 1 4.15314817 0.06410638 0.00000000 0.29079807 15 577091 1 1.00598431 0.04089655 0.00000000 0.46993193 16 577092 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 577111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00784511 1.05491960 18 577112 1 1.10638440 0.02918410 0.00000000 0.20437215 19 577121 1 2.20286965 0.05535181 0.00000000 0.47925144 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 577122 1 1.78828430 0.05252971 0.00000000 0.47280040 21 577131 1 1.48539007 0.04858274 0.00000000 0.42601106 22 577132 1 1.89136410 0.03859951 0.00000000 0.40098777 23 577141 1 1.60690129 0.04933524 0.00000000 0.35241216 24 577142 1 2.17319942 0.04132824 0.00000000 0.32050851 25 577151 1 1.45925617 0.04539077 0.00000000 0.49222222 26 577152 1 1.12317669 0.03837011 0.00000000 0.41530934 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 577011 1835 1979 145 1.000 0.250 0.167 4.286 0.183 0.657 2 577012 1840 1979 140 1.000 0.334 0.635 3.109 0.189 0.769 3 577021 1840 1979 140 1.011 0.306 0.614 4.471 0.231 0.542 4 577022 1835 1979 145 0.999 0.291 0.311 2.883 0.231 0.571 5 577031 1840 1979 140 0.991 0.346 0.357 4.172 0.249 0.638 6 577032 1842 1979 138 1.001 0.458 1.391 5.838 0.284 0.674 7 577041 1846 1979 134 1.000 0.367 -0.011 2.556 0.265 0.647 8 577042 1833 1979 147 1.000 0.355 0.237 3.185 0.240 0.655 9 577051 1842 1979 138 1.000 0.258 0.412 4.127 0.214 0.466 10 577052 1842 1979 138 0.997 0.295 0.149 3.238 0.190 0.687 11 577061 1855 1979 125 1.000 0.217 -0.026 2.999 0.197 0.387 12 577062 1844 1979 136 1.000 0.221 0.144 3.319 0.185 0.429 13 577071 1844 1979 136 1.000 0.236 -0.172 3.615 0.218 0.447 14 577072 1842 1979 138 0.993 0.362 0.282 2.976 0.263 0.635 15 577091 1840 1979 140 1.000 0.307 0.149 2.825 0.221 0.635 16 577092 1847 1979 133 1.003 0.285 0.241 3.017 0.226 0.448 17 577111 1854 1971 118 1.033 0.364 0.544 3.136 0.269 0.578 18 577112 1847 1979 133 1.002 0.358 0.490 3.708 0.267 0.586 19 577121 1850 1979 130 1.000 0.231 0.067 4.757 0.223 0.301 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 577122 1853 1979 127 1.000 0.218 -0.207 3.855 0.221 0.260 21 577131 1847 1979 133 0.999 0.287 0.576 3.603 0.232 0.538 22 577132 1845 1979 135 1.000 0.293 0.768 3.958 0.211 0.548 23 577141 1849 1979 131 1.000 0.272 0.551 3.069 0.202 0.602 24 577142 1847 1979 133 1.000 0.245 0.384 3.038 0.190 0.510 25 577151 1846 1979 134 1.000 0.313 0.427 3.498 0.215 0.618 26 577152 1844 1979 136 1.000 0.286 1.440 6.953 0.227 0.473 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 136 1.001 0.298 0.382 3.700 0.225 0.550 STANDARD DEVIATION 6 0.007 0.058 0.393 0.982 0.028 0.121 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 136 1.000 0.292 0.334 3.409 0.222 0.574 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 7 0.001 0.097 0.402 1.089 0.039 0.172 MINIMUM VALUE 118 0.991 0.217 -0.207 2.556 0.183 0.260 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 133 1.000 0.250 0.149 3.038 0.202 0.466 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 140 1.000 0.346 0.551 4.127 0.240 0.638 MAXIMUM VALUE 147 1.033 0.458 1.440 6.953 0.284 0.769 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 577011 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 577012 -67 93 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 577021 -67 93 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 577022 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 577031 -67 93 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 577032 -67 92 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 577041 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 577042 -67 98 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 577051 -67 92 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 577052 -67 92 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 577061 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 577062 -67 91 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 577071 -67 91 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 577072 -67 92 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 577091 -67 93 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 577092 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 577111 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 577112 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 577121 -67 87 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 577122 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 577131 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 577132 -67 90 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 577141 -67 87 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 577142 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 577151 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 577152 -67 91 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 577011 1835 1979 145 0.998 0.232 0.131 3.912 0.182 0.615 2 577012 1840 1979 140 0.992 0.287 0.363 2.712 0.188 0.678 3 577021 1840 1979 140 0.998 0.275 0.181 3.605 0.231 0.454 4 577022 1835 1979 145 0.999 0.283 0.264 2.828 0.231 0.548 5 577031 1840 1979 140 0.994 0.319 0.130 3.660 0.248 0.590 6 577032 1842 1979 138 0.997 0.443 1.367 5.661 0.284 0.671 7 577041 1846 1979 134 0.993 0.328 0.047 2.710 0.266 0.571 8 577042 1833 1979 147 0.993 0.326 0.154 3.166 0.240 0.588 9 577051 1842 1979 138 0.998 0.240 0.393 3.956 0.214 0.394 10 577052 1842 1979 138 0.996 0.229 0.564 3.816 0.191 0.500 11 577061 1855 1979 125 0.998 0.205 -0.137 3.009 0.197 0.309 12 577062 1844 1979 136 0.999 0.214 0.021 3.172 0.185 0.404 13 577071 1844 1979 136 0.999 0.225 -0.315 3.548 0.217 0.390 14 577072 1842 1979 138 0.998 0.317 0.406 3.208 0.264 0.541 15 577091 1840 1979 140 0.996 0.266 0.134 3.082 0.221 0.528 16 577092 1847 1979 133 0.999 0.280 0.233 3.257 0.226 0.441 17 577111 1854 1971 118 0.998 0.316 0.396 3.148 0.269 0.462 18 577112 1847 1979 133 0.989 0.316 0.395 3.692 0.267 0.502 19 577121 1850 1979 130 0.999 0.219 -0.084 4.542 0.223 0.206 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 577122 1853 1979 127 0.999 0.202 -0.323 3.937 0.221 0.134 21 577131 1847 1979 133 0.999 0.283 0.520 3.373 0.232 0.524 22 577132 1845 1979 135 0.999 0.289 0.744 3.882 0.211 0.534 23 577141 1849 1979 131 0.999 0.265 0.516 3.004 0.202 0.582 24 577142 1847 1979 133 0.999 0.238 0.504 3.138 0.190 0.479 25 577151 1846 1979 134 0.996 0.269 0.405 3.304 0.214 0.522 26 577152 1844 1979 136 0.999 0.267 1.285 5.658 0.227 0.426 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 136 0.997 0.274 0.319 3.576 0.225 0.484 STANDARD DEVIATION 6 0.003 0.052 0.396 0.753 0.028 0.127 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 136 0.998 0.272 0.314 3.338 0.222 0.512 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 7 0.003 0.084 0.373 0.744 0.039 0.145 MINIMUM VALUE 118 0.989 0.202 -0.323 2.710 0.182 0.134 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 133 0.996 0.232 0.130 3.138 0.202 0.426 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 140 0.999 0.316 0.504 3.882 0.240 0.571 MAXIMUM VALUE 147 0.999 0.443 1.367 5.661 0.284 0.678 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.440 0.117 0.006 -0.201 3.355 0.095 0.773 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.095 SERIES 577032 AND 577142 133 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.773 SERIES 577021 AND 577022 140 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 89.82 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 325. 325. 325. RBAR 0.428 0.473 0.416 SDEV 0.171 0.158 0.181 SERR 0.010 0.009 0.010 EPS 0.951 0.959 0.949 NSS 26.0 26.0 26.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1833 1979 147 0.990 0.183 -0.109 4.258 0.165 0.482 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.337 0.115 0.081 51 96 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.19 0.38 1.00 1.06 1.44 4.60 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.08 0.00 0.87 0.95 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.479 0.336 0.142 0.044 -0.111 -0.103 -0.200 -0.172 -0.237 -0.201 PACF 0.479 0.139 -0.083 -0.046 -0.150 0.009 -0.126 -0.026 -0.125 -0.055 95% C.L. 0.165 0.199 0.214 0.217 0.217 0.218 0.220 0.225 0.228 0.235 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.255 0.409 0.151 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.483 0.349 0.144 0.045 -0.137 -0.105 -0.208 -0.185 -0.219 -0.192 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.483 2 0.410 0.150 3 0.425 0.190 -0.096 4 0.420 0.199 -0.075 -0.049 5 0.411 0.185 -0.039 0.027 -0.182 6 0.418 0.184 -0.037 0.020 -0.197 0.038 7 0.423 0.160 -0.035 0.016 -0.174 0.090 -0.125 8 0.417 0.164 -0.042 0.016 -0.176 0.097 -0.106 -0.045 9 0.413 0.155 -0.034 0.002 -0.174 0.094 -0.093 -0.010 -0.082 10 0.407 0.154 -0.041 0.009 -0.187 0.094 -0.096 0.001 -0.052 -0.073 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1181.40 1144.35 1142.98 1143.63 1145.28 1142.33 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1144.12 1143.79 1145.50 1146.50 1147.71 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.410 0.150 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 25.06 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 133.45 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.410 0.319 0.193 0.127 0.081 0.052 0.034 0.022 0.014 0.0090 0.006 0.004 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 577011 2 0.391 0.573 0.072 2 577012 2 0.524 0.460 0.327 3 577021 2 0.225 0.384 0.154 4 577022 2 0.312 0.517 0.062 5 577031 2 0.360 0.532 0.102 6 577032 2 0.457 0.611 0.091 7 577041 2 0.344 0.500 0.124 8 577042 2 0.370 0.489 0.174 9 577051 2 0.186 0.328 0.175 10 577052 2 0.268 0.433 0.140 11 577061 2 0.118 0.263 0.153 12 577062 2 0.201 0.332 0.189 13 577071 2 0.180 0.343 0.130 14 577072 2 0.322 0.503 0.071 15 577091 2 0.304 0.436 0.177 16 577092 2 0.230 0.401 0.099 17 577111 2 0.224 0.429 0.075 18 577112 2 0.299 0.387 0.232 19 577121 2 0.083 0.169 0.186 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 577122 2 0.027 0.123 0.089 21 577131 2 0.304 0.591 -0.118 22 577132 2 0.324 0.496 0.074 23 577141 2 0.350 0.522 0.103 24 577142 2 0.256 0.405 0.165 25 577151 2 0.290 0.495 0.063 26 577152 2 0.205 0.372 0.129 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.275 0.427 0.125 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.110 0.119 0.078 MEDIAN 2 0.294 0.435 0.127 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.139 0.131 0.099 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.027 0.123 -0.118 LOWER HINGE 2 0.205 0.372 0.075 UPPER HINGE 2 0.344 0.503 0.174 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.524 0.611 0.327 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 577011 1835 1979 145 1.000 0.182 0.125 2.976 0.210 0.009 2 577012 1840 1979 140 1.000 0.198 0.579 3.859 0.211 -0.005 3 577021 1840 1979 140 1.000 0.242 0.273 4.213 0.263 -0.005 4 577022 1835 1979 145 1.000 0.235 0.116 2.527 0.283 -0.005 5 577031 1840 1979 140 1.000 0.255 -0.221 3.426 0.314 -0.003 6 577032 1842 1979 138 1.000 0.326 0.885 5.916 0.352 -0.001 7 577041 1846 1979 134 1.000 0.267 -0.074 3.198 0.325 -0.013 8 577042 1833 1979 147 1.000 0.259 0.692 4.648 0.275 -0.003 9 577051 1842 1979 138 1.000 0.217 0.433 4.333 0.248 -0.005 10 577052 1842 1979 138 1.000 0.196 0.253 2.925 0.229 0.000 11 577061 1855 1979 125 1.000 0.192 -0.071 3.072 0.219 0.004 12 577062 1844 1979 136 1.000 0.191 0.120 3.647 0.209 0.005 13 577071 1844 1979 136 1.000 0.205 -0.218 3.150 0.239 0.019 14 577072 1842 1979 138 1.000 0.265 -0.114 3.199 0.316 0.013 15 577091 1840 1979 140 1.000 0.221 0.030 3.132 0.257 0.000 16 577092 1847 1979 133 1.000 0.249 0.445 4.814 0.259 0.017 17 577111 1854 1971 118 1.000 0.279 0.691 3.566 0.315 0.003 18 577112 1847 1979 133 1.000 0.266 0.216 3.094 0.303 0.021 19 577121 1850 1979 130 1.000 0.210 -0.173 4.303 0.234 0.016 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 577122 1853 1979 127 1.000 0.199 -0.428 3.870 0.234 0.003 21 577131 1847 1979 133 1.000 0.238 0.333 3.222 0.285 -0.021 22 577132 1845 1979 135 1.000 0.243 0.835 4.510 0.253 0.016 23 577141 1849 1979 131 1.000 0.215 -0.053 3.404 0.257 0.008 24 577142 1847 1979 133 1.000 0.205 0.435 3.101 0.223 0.005 25 577151 1846 1979 134 1.000 0.228 0.734 4.043 0.249 0.005 26 577152 1844 1979 136 1.000 0.240 0.907 4.366 0.274 -0.011 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 136 1.000 0.232 0.260 3.712 0.263 0.003 STANDARD DEVIATION 6 0.000 0.034 0.381 0.762 0.039 0.010 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 136 1.000 0.232 0.235 3.496 0.257 0.003 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 7 0.000 0.051 0.650 1.171 0.051 0.013 MINIMUM VALUE 118 1.000 0.182 -0.428 2.527 0.209 -0.021 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 133 1.000 0.205 -0.071 3.132 0.234 -0.005 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 140 1.000 0.255 0.579 4.303 0.285 0.009 MAXIMUM VALUE 147 1.000 0.326 0.907 5.916 0.352 0.021 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.452 0.086 0.005 -0.199 3.397 0.188 0.719 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.188 SERIES 577042 AND 577072 138 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.719 SERIES 577121 AND 577122 127 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 89.82 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 325. 325. 325. RBAR 0.449 0.481 0.461 SDEV 0.124 0.113 0.127 SERR 0.007 0.006 0.007 EPS 0.955 0.960 0.957 NSS 26.0 26.0 26.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1833 1979 147 0.996 0.154 -0.158 3.516 0.185 0.004 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.207 0.063 0.097 56 91 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.21 0.58 1.00 1.09 1.67 3.49 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.07 0.00 0.88 0.95 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.004 0.058 -0.008 0.016 -0.138 0.016 -0.127 -0.025 -0.127 -0.051 PACF 0.004 0.058 -0.008 0.013 -0.138 0.016 -0.114 -0.027 -0.116 -0.071 95% C.L. 0.165 0.165 0.166 0.166 0.166 0.169 0.169 0.171 0.171 0.174 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.001 -0.001 0.000 0.013 -0.131 0.018 -0.113 -0.022 -0.113 -0.043 PACF 0.001 -0.001 0.000 0.013 -0.131 0.018 -0.115 -0.022 -0.115 -0.063 95% C.L. 0.165 0.165 0.165 0.165 0.165 0.168 0.168 0.170 0.170 0.172 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.000 0.001 -0.001 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1833 1979 147 0.997 0.174 -0.156 4.183 0.158 0.461 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.458 0.302 0.139 0.030 -0.125 -0.109 -0.203 -0.183 -0.240 -0.201 PACF 0.458 0.117 -0.046 -0.060 -0.159 0.010 -0.129 -0.038 -0.130 -0.054 95% C.L. 0.165 0.196 0.209 0.211 0.211 0.213 0.215 0.220 0.224 0.231 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.225 0.402 0.125 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.39 MINUTES